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DrakeMarshall

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Everything posted by DrakeMarshall

  1. DrakeMarshall
    Right but you really can't maintain without being disingenuous that it is suicidal for elim!TJ to create the situation that we are seeing, unless you also believe that the situation that the village currently sees is one in which a sane village should execute you. I could litigate more about each of your specific decisions and defenses, but it would all be secondary to the above. Anyways, if you'd rather go on the offensive and do analysis of your own then excellent, you have my blessing FWIW. I've said it a lot before, but analyzing other players is a much more compelling defense than enumerating reasons why you're innocent, if you can only do one of those.
  2. DrakeMarshall
    If you genuinely think that it's a death sentence, then that isn't really consistent with arguing that voting you isn't the best move today, at least for those of us who don't know your alignment one way or the other. Either the situation you are in is damning and it is logical to vote for you, or it is not and elim!TJ understands this to be the case. Like if you wanted to say "I get that the evidence against me looks bad here, but despite this I'm actually inno" that would be one thing, but you're basically saying "the evidence against me looks bad here, therefore I must be inno" and that just doesn't track It feels like you are manufacturing certainty. Not only does it feel like manufactured certainty, but it feels fundamentally like a TWTBAW argument. I take a somewhat dim view of these when people make them about other people, let alone when somebody is making such an argument about themselves Sir I still do not think you are a villager. Edit: Furthermore, I think Silhouette is also evil, and was planning to bus you when at first it looked like a strong TJ wagon was appearing, and then leapt on the Archer off-ramp when I offered it. I think the 2 elims in Orlok's scan are TJ and Silhouette. My luck probably isn't good enough for this analysis to be completely correct, but you never know.
  3. DrakeMarshall
    Yeah it felt almost too on the nose Sadly there is no such thing as too on the nose in SE apparently I admit it's possible that the elims are trying to frame you here. Pretty sure that would implicate Ash, Silhouette, Biplet, etc. People who don't have solid accounting of their roles or what they've been doing, or people who made late role claims that feel at least somewhat hard to believe. I will echo your request that if a villager roleblocked TJ, they should probably speak up. I have doubts that any such person exists, but if they do, knowing about it would help get to the bottom of this. But like. Do I really believe the elims would focus on blocking you when that has a 50% chance of not even doing anything? Do I really believe that you were conveniently roleblocked and can't account for your action on the same cycle that the elims were apparently roleblocking people? You had Archer to corroborate your actions before, which is its own can of worms, but e!you couldn't just make up a roleblock target, since if you picked one of the people you'd done before it'd be suspicious, whereas if you picked a random chance there's a good chance that they'd come back and say "you didn't roleblock me I successfully took an action." So you are falling pretty much where I'd expect elim!TJ to to be honest. On the other hand, I really don't think I understand what's happening if you're a villager.
  4. DrakeMarshall
    No!!! I said I'm a pacifist Do you believe the elims used a pinch-hitter to gain the RPer role and then the RPer role to gain a roleblock role and went through all of that conniption to roleblock you? AFAIK this would take 3 whole cycles to have a coin flip chance of failing to block your roleblock. Does that sound likely to you? Sir I do not think you are a villager.
  5. DrakeMarshall
    I feel like the main upshot of Orlok's scan thingy is that more people in that group are suspicious than can possibly be elims >>
  6. DrakeMarshall
    I know there is ostensibly a PM Spider scan already confirming Mat as village, but FWIW I village read Mat
  7. DrakeMarshall
    If TJ is village, then the elims definitely have 2 roleblockers. If TJ is an elim, then either the elims have 2 roleblockers or Archer is an elim as well. I don't think elim!TJ necessarily requires elim!Archer though. From a role analysis perspective, 2 elim roleblockers really isn't that out there considering the number of village power roles. Therefore, after reflecting on it a bit, I do think TJ is probably a better vote than Archer.
  8. DrakeMarshall
    Guys I'm a pacifist!!!
  9. DrakeMarshall
    Wait, no, my logic is completely wrong TJ being evil does not imply Archer being evil at all in this case TJ
  10. DrakeMarshall
    I'm not actually sure if it makes sense to me let me double check it
  11. DrakeMarshall
    Incidentally, if anybody wants to claim having roleblocked TJ, that would be great.
  12. DrakeMarshall
    So that's 2 roleblocks: one on TJ and one on Aman. And TJ is already a roleblocker. Options: A secret villager roleblocker was suspicious of TJ and roleblocked TJ. At the same time, an elim roleblocker blocked Aman. The elims have 2 roleblockers and for some reason one of them blocked TJ instead of me (pretty darn unlikely). TJ is a lying elim who roleblocked Aman and is now claiming to have been RB'd as an alibi. This makes TJ suspicious, yea? However, evil TJ implies evil Archer. Whereas evil Archer does not necessarily imply evil TJ. Therefore while it may be a bit counterintuitive, the odds of evil Archer is strictly higher than the odds of evil TJ. Archer, provisionally. I am pretty sure this is a good vote to make. Slight dilemma, though. Because on the other hand, I figure the net is likely closing in terms of role claims and the exhibited abilities of the elims. I am therefore decently suspicious of both of the roleclaims made last cycle, both of which were... Odd, in different ways. I almost want to spend this cycle getting both of the claimants to prove their roles, by voting up Ashbringer and having Silhouette use their vote manip so we can see it in action.
  13. DrakeMarshall
    ...Araris would be the one to talk to about whether you were trolled or not, but I am pretty sure that doesn't work if you are trying to figure out if an alignment scan on Araris was accurate
  14. DrakeMarshall
    Also, I feel like it might actually be worth voting up Ashbringer tomorrow to prove that the roleclaim is valid tbh Because that claim is wild And if Ash lives we have a close to confirmed villager (caveat: unless E!Ash has just a vanilla Thug ability lol, depends on how likely you think something like that is) and if Ash dies well then they were definitely evil Interesting, yes this makes sense So the possibilities are: E!TJ and E!Archer V!TJ and V!Archer V!TJ and E!Archer The one we can rule out is: E!TJ and V!Archer
  15. DrakeMarshall
    Tani is a dead elim. Dead players only have a single charge to cast a vote that counts. Is there a reason you couldn't have used your powers to make Tani waste her vote on a cycle it didn't matter?
  16. DrakeMarshall
    Agreed. There are a lot of things in this game I've missed but I feel like that's okay, for multiple reasons this game is one where there is maybe not as much of an expectation that you can keep on top of everything. It is good to have a game that isn't too hectic, however: a game that is shorter to read is one kind of chill, but a game where you don't have to have read everything and there isn't high stakes to always play optimally or whatever is a different kind of chill. Or at least that's my two spheres You are free to hold your own peace and to not claim, but why exactly were you worried about RPers stealing a vote manipulation role when there are people who have claimed kill and protect roles? Also, if you had this ability and are village, why not manipulate Tani's vote so that it was used up? I don't necessarily disbelieve you but I have Questions:tm: I'm a pacifist!!! My role PM says I am but a humble seeker. Seekers don't kill! The fact that some of the past targets of this ability have died on the same night they were targeted by it is an unfortunate coincidence, but I am sure that my role doesn't cause people to die that would be morbid I have Standards Interesting. I suppose you shouldn't say who specifically it is hm. Edit: Can you further explain why you think the alignment of these two is entangled? Was Aman roleblocked N2 by an elim? I am sorry I do not know what happened on N2 Also, even if village!Archer implies village!TJ, does the other direction exist? Does village!TJ indicate village!Archer in any way?
  17. DrakeMarshall
    Wait you have a kill? Neat! A troll helped you out, I assume Does it make a difference who does the deed?
  18. DrakeMarshall
    I was not!!
  19. DrakeMarshall
    We didn't make it to 20 pages...
  20. DrakeMarshall
    Oh they get 1 of 4 different results with their info power? Did not know that. Okay yea I think the PM Spider situation is fine. Such a role is also broadly confirmable so not as attractive for a fake-claim. If there are any PM Spider claimants who aren't verified as having created a PM at some point though I'd be wary.
  21. DrakeMarshall
    Yeah, I figure they can't interfere without tipping their hand unless they have a vote manipulation ready to go. If they do, then they will probably use it. Unrelated, but why are there so many PM Spiders? Does it feel like there's a lot of them to anyone else?
  22. DrakeMarshall
    I agree that 12 is pretty much too many. I figure we could either do a 3-way tie of 9 voters in total, or a 2-way tie of 8 voters. We already have the latter, of course. It remains to be seen whether vote manip breaks it. Because stab voters exist and dead players have votes, I don't think we necessarily have anything like rioters or soothers, but for example Tani could swoop in and break the tie at the last second I suppose this isn't super likely though
  23. DrakeMarshall
    Oh, right You know, fair. These are good reasons. I am satisfied with them. I'd offer to switch to Biplet, but I'm not sure if that actually helps anything. Imo Walin is probably the weakest of the 3 trains, if we're not doing the 3-way tie, and if we are, then we need either 1 more vote or 2 fewer.
  24. DrakeMarshall
    Also, we nearly have 20 pages! Keep it up! Have a complementary meme: Edit to add (I'm honestly surprised nobody else posted in the time it took to write this :P): Right but this is where it gets silly, bc the fact is you have gotten some people to vote bip Idk, it just feels like, at least for a villager, there is no particular reason to want bip dead? Other than maybe an educated stab in the dark prompted by PoE. Which is valid, but I don't have any feelings about it one way or the other. Like, I agree that by PoE Bip is an above-average choice as far as the exe goes, but I find the route you went to arrive at that choice interesting. Anyways, I figure there's a few options vis a vis bip: Bip is an elim and you're line of speculation is broadly correct Bip is village, and the reason the elims haven't jumped on a v!Bip train is because Walin and Steel are also village so there is no need for them to bother Bip is village, and the reason the elims haven't jumped on a v!Bip train is because breaking the tie in this situation is going to garner a lot of attention no matter how you cut it Bip is village, and there are currently elims trying to opportunistically jump on the Bip train you started, that is, one of Sart/Wizard is an elim Like yes Bip could definitely be evil but I'm not sure I see why it's more likely than the other options with what we know ...I guess this kind of ended up being a defense of Bip huh Honestly I really don't mind that much if Bip is part of the tie I swear
  25. DrakeMarshall
    Go go tallybot! Vote Tally Walin (4): Matrim's Dice, Shining Silhouette, Steeldancer, |TJ| Steeldancer (4): Archer, Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall, The Known Novel Biplet (3): Amanuensis, Sart, The Wandering Wizard Araris Valerian (1): The Bookwyrm Sart (1): Araris Valerian While self-pres is understandable breaking a tie in this situation is at least a little hmmmmm I mean we do prolly want a tie I think? and it was only like a 1 in 3 of dying TKN on the other hand I think we know is village, and I suppose there are worse cycles to use their vote on than this one Wait fr That's wild In that case you kinda want to get 0, I think If you get lucky and get "0" as a result to a large-ish pool of voters, then you've cleared a whole bunch of people. Whereas if you get "there is 1 elim" in a group the size of even like 3-4 that is not so helpful by comparison Anyways I do not have to be one of the voters in the tie if people don't want a scan on me, or I will keep my vote involved if people do want a scan of me. Imo you all have enough info to be pretty sure of my alignment but I won't make that decision for ya ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Catching up to the present is unnecessary! Or at least, if it is necessary, I am not a very good pinch hitter I think people not paying attention to Bip can also be explained by Bip not being super active, right? Not defending Bip, I kinda see the logic in the PoE, but I feel there's a simpler explanation for people not pushing a Bip vote than "distancing." And idk if ignoring a person == resistance surrounding them. Also nobody really defended Shining but they've pulled out of 2 wagons that developed. Do you think a Shining wagon is lacking in resistance in light of that fact? Anyways, apparently it's the voters and not the voted who get scanned by the Tie Guy, which changes the calculus of this at least a little. ...well, maybe not al that much. At the end of the day we should still pretty much prioritize voting for suspicious people.
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