DrakeMarshall

I forget who said it too, because I'm pretty sure I never did, but I do have direct confirmation from Kasimir that dead elims can submit kills. Stick asked about it very early on in the game, in conjunction with asking whether the Terminal Seeker kill can be used while dead (it can't). I don't think dead elims can submit other role actions, just their faction kill. (Although this part I do not have explicit confirmation on, and tbh I'd probably just get a PAFO. But the general rule seems to be that roles can't be accessed while you are dead, and if the elims could use roles while they are dead I'd expect somebody to have copied my role by now and started making kills with it.)

Dang it this is the second time I forgot when a day would be ending Gonna go read the end of D8 In the meantime, anybody got vibes about D8? Like was it a V/E or V/V or E/E? Edit: Also nice pun Edit2: Turns out it was a really darn quick read. Edit3: So who do people think I should terminally seek tonight? I may oft disregard suggestions but I do value them quite a bit. And I don't feel very confident about who's evil myself so if anybody has a better idea than "kill everyone in the PoE" that's where I'm at rn Edit4: Anybody have any theories for why this game has no voting minimum and forbids a "no exe" as a vote? Both of these are deliberate, not entirely standard rules for voting, and must be for a specific reason.

Tallybot works in mysterious ways edit: I have fixed this particular error in the tally bot

Vote Tally (According to Tallybot) JNV (3): Araris Valerian, Matrim's Dice, The last Fae in the Woods Araris Valerian (1): The Wandering Wizard The last Fae in the Woods (1): DrakeMarshall Matrim's Dice (1): Chop liver

I guess they forgot I was a pacifist

Fair Tbh I don't have and never have had any kind of unified theory of "how I do analysis" so don't feel bad if you don't have one either I do appreciate it when people make an effort to vote even when they don't feel like they have a strong suspicions. Because tbh most of the time the only people that know who they want to vote for are the elims (edit: well, maybe not even then. it can be really hard to come up with a train you think you can justify as an elim, since you know all of the trains you would vote on aren't actually justified. so sometimes truly nobody knows who to vote for). Not knowing what's going on is a villager's lot in life, especially in this kayana game and even incorrect opinions are still things that others can engage with and form reads from but don't mind me I'm more just complaining about the aforementioned not knowing what's going on than I am intentionally making any kind of meta commentary I still don't really know if you're village or not >> and the sacred numbers are convinced that you're sus But I found it weird that everyone was seemingly tacitly agreeing to vote on you and not Fae when you are in similar boats as having scanned one other player and not being cleared yourselves I mean that's a bit weird right?

In a baseline sense, JNV and Fae are both equally suspicious. Maybe JNV is slightly more so if you think JNV and Matrim are E/E, but otherwise JNV and Fae are on equal footing. The sacred numbers say so in no uncertain terms, and the sacred numbers are always right! Also a lot of more active players have more reasons they look at least somewhat village. So why is it always JNV who gets voted and not Fae? I looked through some of JNV's past games to validate whether it made sense to village read them. Tonally, JNV in this game feels like a much closer match to MR61 (village!JNV) than LG89 (elim!JNV). Now, people change their tones due to things other than alignment. So take that with a grain of salt. But I do think this looks more like v!JNV than e!JNV, for what that's worth. As an aside, I wish v!JNV would vote more often since I see that as being important to the village, but I aint gonna tell people how to play the game The point is to enjoy yourself after all. ...It just makes reading JNV harder in cases like these On the other hand we have Fae. Fae has been active on the shard but only shows up in the thread to respond quickly when somebody talks about killing them, which if anything feels like maybe a docmate prompted Fae to go defend themselves. Fae has claimed a role but has generally not accounted for their actions as far as I can tell. This is pretty similar to what Steel was doing. Fae has not really given reads AFAIK, and voted JNV seemingly out of nowhere in a way that mainly comes across as an act of self-preservation. While self-preservation is valid, it is not a great look to be more concerned with self-preservation than with solving the game for the village. Villagers are concerned with self-preservation but the difference is that for elims it's the top priority or close to it, and for villagers it almost always is not. Fae is new to this, and I do think Fae deserves some benefit of the doubt. I think it is generally good to give people the benefit of the doubt about forgetting about things like submitting actions. And it's very easy to enter SE and do something that players will see as suspicious just because you don't know what they will see as suspicious. But at the same time, that only goes so far, and so long. It's day 8 and Fae still looks like an elim by many conventional standards. At this point, I can either vote for somebody else who I at least have some reasons to think is village, or I can vote for Fae. So I'm voting for Fae.

Fae.

Okay but whether you chose Walin and then decided to stick with that choice later or there was a vote between Walin and Steel and you picked Walin it's mostly the same. Yeah confirmed wrong != confirmed evil, but when you're looking at votes where an elim got put in danger, you have to agree that people voting in favor of the elim are more suspicious in that case The Araris theory is that Bookwyrm was trolled, yes. For basically every other scan, we have some reason to believe that trolling is unlikely, either because the scan was done D1 and the scanner hadn't claimed, or because we had somebody trolling the scanner, or because Araris himself was checking to see if the scanner had been trolled. For this specific scan, there was no safeguards against trolling, and AFAIK the elims had reason to be aware that Bookwyrm was doing a scan and that there wouldn't be effective anti-troll measures in place. Incidentally, I also do not think the elim troll is still alive, if one ever existed. If an elim troll is currently alive and even slightly active, I cannot imagine that they wouldn't troll Aman. This simple maneuver would have destroyed us both of the last two nights, and it didn't happen. So either the elims never had a troll (which would mean v!Araris) or, more likely imo, the elims did have a troll and we killed them. The question at this point is when we killed them. Was it Fadran? Was it Steel or Sart? Was it actually Tani and the elims have been flying without a troll the whole time (again this implies v!Araris)? My estimation says that the cases that would point to v!Araris are less likely (I mostly believe Tani's roleclaim and I think the elims would be given a troll), so I do think e!Araris is pretty possible. This is an aspect of analysis I could try to tell the sacred numbers about. Maybe it will help. Wizard you literally pointed out to me like three turns ago that you couldn't do this because if you lied and got me and/or Aman killed you would be up for the vote pronto So don't use it as a defense in the thread please it's not entirely being honest Yep this. Although I do find it unlikely that e!Wizard would feel the need to stage two blocked kills in a row. I feel like e!Wizard could probably just do it once and then kill me the next night and still be fairly trusted. Mind you, if Wizard is the last surviving elim or something, then I could see this being a sound tactic. Because in that case getting trusted so that you don't die is honestly much more important than two nights worth of kills. If you're a lone eliminator then you have to be very firmly in the trusted category to stand a chance since you are extremely vulnerable to PoE otherwise. But Wizard also actually can't be a lone elim, e!Wizard requires e!Fae. What is an elim motivated FUD? Is this an elim motivated FUD? Let's be fair, Aman does believe we've killed some elims AFAIK. I am pretty sure Aman has accepted that Tani, Steel, and Sart were probably all elims(?). Perhaps reluctantly at times, but still As for Fadran I agree Fadran might have been evil, although personally I rate it at like a 1 in 3 chance.

hm so I think I and possibly everyone else should have continued to scrutinize D5 after we figured out that Steel and Sart were both elims tbh in the very least it might have convinced me to shoot somebody other than TJ but spilt milk and all that Matrim Araris. For now.

Tie Guy PoE affects you and JNV equally, in essence. Since it is only relevant in a world where the two of you are E/E. It is a reason to vote for one of you two, but to decide which one of you to vote for, we have to base the decision off of the possible worlds where you guys are V/E. Admittedly, I think elim #2 in the Tie Guy pool might already be dead, but I do appreciate thoroughness. Normal PoE is different bc unlike Tie Guy it has nothing to do with Confirmed Villager roles existing or not. Personally yea I think it’s possible. I never said I thought Sart’s thing was a result of OoA shenanigans that was somebody else. I think e!Sart and e!Archer might have worked on the basis that role analysis is just generally a bit sketchy. Can’t I? I mean sure you couldn’t break the tie but you were still playing a part in deciding which parties were involved in the tie in the first place. On that note, why did you suspect Walin?

I would like to add my vote to Matrim as this was the attack order I had decided on before I was able to get into contact with Wizard or Aman. Would JNV make more sense? Well maybe tbh. But at the same time I village-read JNV and I elim-read Matrim and at some point that has to outweigh unreliable scans. Reasons: Vibes :tm: PoE from kinda thinking everyone except Matrim and Araris seems village Tie Guy PoE (only relevant in an e!JNV world, mind, which again I find unlikely but it's still there) The D3 vote (voted Walin over Steel) The D5 vote All of these reasons are pretty self-explanatory except for the D5 vote. I thought it was weird that at the end of D5, at the first sign of Archer providing reasoning as an out to voting up Sart, multiple people jumped on it and switched off of Sart. But I dismissed it as just that, a little weird, but not necessarily alignment indicative. After all, weird as it was, what did the elims even have to gain by it? Sart and Steel were both evil, right? Then I realized Sart, unlike Steel, was very probably NK immune. In light of this I find Matrim's D5 switch at EoD kinda suspect. Wizard did more or less the same thing but I trust Mat less than Wizard if I'm picking between them. EDIT: Also this is largely unrelated to anything, but I'm surprised more dead players aren't using their votes, at least symbolically. If I was dead I would still vote at the beginning of every single cycle but then I would retract before EoD with like a 75% chance. Just to keep the votes flowing, ya know? Can still apply pressure that way.

lol I was convinced they wouldn't try it again I kept trying to convince Wiz and then I was paranoia-ing so hard last night but you guys outvoted me in this case and it turns out that was a good thing PM buddies are nice

Aint it just!! edit: yo @Amanuensis are u there perchance? if not is ok but if you happen to be here i have a small question in a similar but not quite the same vein as last time

You and the sacred numbers both tbh. You are a wise individual to be in such attunement with the sacred numbers. Well to be fair, do you see a lot of reason for v!mat or araris? For that matter, do you see a lot of reason for e!JNV or Fae? Idk where things really stand anymore ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

in their finite but large wisdom, the sacred numbers told me to vote steel before it was even cool the sacred numbers are a path to great enlightenment! #MathIsAnElimTell I don't sus people to get them to do things for me I sus people when they are sus >:P ...also you may have noticed that I constructed elim theories for everyone #MathIsAnElimTell I only buy organic vote counts at the supermarket Agreed. The Biplet case is confused slightly by the fact that e!Sart subsequently claimed to have a red scan on Biplet, which looks an awful lot like a panicked response to the fact that the top 2 trains were on elims at the time (edit: apparently Fadran actually had 1 more vote than Sart at the time, but still). However, this comes down to risk appetite. In the world where you decide you are going to take some kind of loss inevitably, claiming to have a red scan on an actual teammate actually makes a good deal of sense because it does at least stand a decent chance of getting one of you semi-cleared out of it. This would be a reasonable play in my books, assuming those involved agreed to it, and it was late enough in the cycle that I completely believe the elim team could have talked it over and agreed on this course of action. Also yes Araris was indeed gunning for Steel. Although I'm not sure how much weight that ultimately has when Araris eventually switched onto somebody else. To play devil's advocate here: I was going to shoot Sart if you hadn't beat me to it. You know this to be true. So if Sart is already going to die, being the one to do the deed nets you village cred. Yes, it frees me up to do something different with my action on that night, but in my opinion this course of action is still broadly a net positive trade for e!Ashbringer.

Out of curiosity, about how much did Kas and Fifth tell you about how PM Spiders work and how much did the PAFO? Asking bc my ability really isn't complicated so I don't really know how vague they are being about other ones More specifically, were you able to get the list of possible facts you can learn from the scan up-front? More specifically, in your educated opinion, do you think JNV would have gotten enough clarifications at that point in the game to know that faking an alignment scan on Matrim was actually a thing that made sense according to the PM spider rules? Edit (because apparently y'all decided to finally have a relatively calm cycle): Tbh, the problem with this cycle is that for every living player, there's at least some reason to say they seem village: Ashbringer: Killed Sart. Wizard: Reported village by Fae. JNV: Idk seems to be acting villagery? Matrim: Reported village by JNV. Biplet: Framed by Sart. Araris: Pushed Steel. Aman: Elim kill target. Archer: Pushed Steel. Drake: Totally trustworthy Fae: Giving a new player who rolled villager an SE Buddy makes sense from a meta perspective. Keeping that in mind, not all of these reasons to village read people are equally strong. I think, at this point, the most environmentally friendly low tinfoil occam-approved theory is that the elims pretty quickly decided to cut their losses and bus Steel after he got scanned as an elim, and the surviving eliminator team therefore consists of Archer and/or Araris. In which case, executing Archer today and then nonviolently seeking Araris tonight should quickly restore peace, freedom, justice, and security to the galaxy. But that is probably much too convenient for it to be true tbh. If we slightly increase the tinfoil rations, the [JNV -> Matrim] and [Fae -> Wizard] pairs stick out as pretty reasonable candidates for elimmery. On a purely statistical level, Matrim and Wizard are each somewhat less likely than the average player to be evil, and JNV and Fae are each somewhat more likely than the average player. On a purely statistical level, going after JNV and/or Fae is probably what we actually should be doing this cycle, prioritizing it above Archer or Araris. However, I think we are actually smarter than the sacred numbers in this specific case so I am ignoring them I wonder if I'll regret it. If you have a high credence that the elims have a Confirmed Villager, and that it wasn't Fadran or some other random dead player, I'd probably highlight Matrim as a suspect of interest as well. The way Matrim's been going after JNV feels like a potential match for the behavior I'd expect from an elim Confirmed Villager in the same situation. (That is to say, outside of Confirmed Villager, the most likely way for there to be a green scan on somebody and for it to be wrong is if the scanner and the scanned are E/E. That being the case, Matrim voting for JNV feels ever so slightly showy, like a way for Matrim to assert that he is village by demonstrating he isn't E/E with JNV, but I digress). I do not have a particularly strong elim read of Matrim at this moment, but it bears mentioning. Making an SE Buddy targeted to an elim Confirmed Villager from the start of the game feels cruel even by the standards of our GMs, so I do think e!Wizard absolutely requires e!Fae, no two ways about it. The converse is not true. There is also the possibility of either Ashbringer or Biplet being on a team with Sart, and that part of Sart's play was distancing from one or both of those two. I do not believe this is likely, as Sart's play did not seem quite as calculated as that, but it is possible. Last but not least there is the possibility that Aman is a Confirmed Villager on the elim team, which if nothing else would be quite amusing. This has been tinfoil analysis with Drake. While aluminium is not regarded as an essential nutrient to most biological life forms in the way that potassium, iron, and other minerals are, studies have shown that the average SE Player does in fact require a daily amount of tinfoil intake in order to survive, and I am therefore doing my part to stave off the effects of paranoia withdrawal. You are welcome.

Better analysis happens later, sure, but my experience is that village!Araris can be a bit more bloodthirsty How is your alignment tied to Orlok’s? hail bystander, those who are about to die salute you

huh, it's odd that Araris votes on side trains in some of the cycles before I got here I feel like I have a vaguely village read of Araris' posts, but overall Araris hasn't really voted in a way that shouts village. You could also say Matrim's D3 is potentially incriminating, although that was when we were building a tie, which sort of throws off that particular vote analysis somewhat. The regular disclaimers about automated tallies apply, but, here is what tally bot says the vote tally is: Vote Tally Archer (4): Amanuensis, Araris Valerian, DrakeMarshall, JNV DrakeMarshall (1): Ashbringer JNV (1): Matrim's Dice

Sorry 'bout that yes Aman/Wiz made a good pitch. I guess you could say I did end up following your advice and abstained from shooting anyone. look im not actually that unpredictable i promise Drake is insisting that he is a pacifist? somebody gets shot Drake is loudly arguing that violence is justified? guess what's actually going to happen

To JNV, or not to JNV, that is the question: Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer The slings and arrows of Archer, Or to take arms against a sea of quokkas And by opposing end them. To tie—to vote, No more; and by a vote to say we end The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks That flipless games are heir to: 'tis a consummation Devoutly to be wish'd. To tie, to vote; To vote, perchance to meme—ay, there's the rub: For in that sleep of death what memes may come, When we have shuffled off this flimsy tinfoil, Must give us pause—there's the respect That makes calamity of so confusing a game. For who would bear the whips and scorns of memes, The bot's wrong, the false scanner's contumely, The pangs of disprized gambits, the seeker's delay, The insolence of trolls, and the turns That patience merits of th'unworthy Drake, When he himself might his quietus make With a bare vote? Who would suspicion bear, To grunt and sweat under a weary PoE, But that the dread of an elim hammer after death, The undiscovere'd losecon, from whose bourn No SE player returns, puzzles the will, And makes us rather use those kills we have Than fly to others that we know not of? Thus suspicion doth make tinfoilers of us all, And thus the native hue of resolution Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought, And analyses of great pith and moment With regard to the current turn go awry And lose the game by distraction.

sir that could have been a funny prank carefully crafted reaction test >> and you call yourself a troll smh >> oh well I'm mostly just glad you're alive <3

Splendid, thank you for the confirmation. Edit: Apparently, asking this was not really necessary ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Edit: greetings and hello yes it is I your favorite highly credible village coinshot here again to lay down some facts after careful consideration and analysis of all of the evidence, I have come to the conclusion that JNV is totally villagery and the most suspicious person here by far is actually Amanuensis, so I will summarily be disregarding all advice and shooting Amenuensis tonight this may seem like a rather abrupt change to some of you, but I promise, this was a carefully thought out decision with a host of assuredly very legitimate reasons behind it, and you may absolutely rest peacefully in the knowledge that I always have and always will have all of the village's best interests at heart rest is in fact a very good word for what you will be doing let it not be said that I don't call my shots

edit: hey is Wizard lying about what you apparently told them?