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DrakeMarshall

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Everything posted by DrakeMarshall

  1. DrakeMarshall
    That is fair, because the most likely ones do happen to include you pretty often Well look unless Aman's evil worst-case scenario I am pretty sure I can force a mutual loss The elims really should have killed me sooner bc without an ace in the hole of some kind I can probably do this: D9 Wiz JNV Matrim Araris Aman Drake N9 Wiz Matrim Araris Aman Drake D10 Wiz Araris Drake N10 Wiz Drake D11 everybody's dead dave But I don't believe things will progress to that point.
  2. DrakeMarshall
    Well, technically I said "name any elim team other than this that works" and you are right, the one I said but minus you actually works. Credit where it is due, I didn't think anybody could name a different elim team and technically you did. If JNV is the last elim though the current course of voting up JNV is going to figure that out pretty well See, but this is only if you consider players in a vacuum. My challenge is can you think of a team that has Araris which makes sense. And that's the part I think where it breaks down. Araris could be evil, but then it requires more other people to be evil than there is space in the elim team. Or it requires something unlikely like that we construct a theory where a specific person is a Confirmed Villager. And at that point, we can construct such theories about almost anyone to decide they are an elim, but it will still be less likely than an explanation that doesn't require it imo. I mean, I don't even know if there's an elim Confirmed Villager in the game, so basing my analysis on that feels sketchy. And even if you assume that there is an elim Confirmed Villager somewhere in the game, just the pure numbers of it means it's not that likely that the Confirmed Villager even got scanned by anyone. I think it's much more plausible that somebody lied than that a specific scan is wrong due to the Confirmed Villager role. Unless I'm wrong. Unless you can think of a team with Araris on it, that accounts for everything we've observed and doesn't require any major tinfoil. mistakes were made >> I village read JNV even when it was not actually very logical to. mistakes were made >> mistakes were made!! the fog of war is real ok the fog of war is known by the state of california to cause overthinking I have, since the deaths of both Archer and Bip, found reasons why both of them probably aren't elims, which I hypothetically could have figured out before they died but didn't realize but look tbf if you turn out to be an elim then you do not get to criticize us sad poor confused villagery types you don't know what it's like ok if you turn out to be a villager then by all means carry on if you are village and JNV is the only elim left well then you have had this game solved better than most for the past few cycles I think Vote Tally JNV (6): Amanuensis, Araris Valerian, DrakeMarshall, JNV, StrikerEZ, The Wandering Wizard Araris Valerian (1): Matrim's Dice DrakeMarshall (1): Shining Silhouette
  3. DrakeMarshall
    Oh whoops I totally forgot about the Fae/Wizard scan and how it fits into things Good grief I've really been overthinking this game haven't I >> I should have just listened to the sacred numbers instead of repeatedly ignoring them >> So, I feel a bit silly but also this actually substantially increases the confidence of my current prediction Let's make this simple: I predict that the complete elim team lineup is Tani, Sart, Steel, (optional +1 dead player), JNV, Matrim. And what's more I challenge anyone to either name a single possible elim team lineup other than this one that doesn't require copious amounts of tinfoil to function, or to point out why this particular lineup is actually implausible, because rn I honestly have doubts that anyone will be able to
  4. DrakeMarshall
    Yep Well 4, if we also include Wizard, and personally I would include Wizard before including Aman But regardless yes we can kill you D10 if we really get that far I predict we won't but who knows it does yes you've pulled a 180 and I think it's very suspicious under the circumstances! sir this is not a defense you are right i agree you are right >> but it still isn't a defense well sure but I changed my mind about it its true that Araris is harder to kill but that only matters if Araris is probably evil and you haven't really weighed in on that very much and JNV's scan isn't overly convenient? maybe you can maintain that your reads have stayed the same and that you haven't pulled a 180, but in practice it sure seems like your willingness to vote JNV has correlated with the number of votes JNV has and likewise JNV has voted for you but only as an isolated vote this falls pretty squarely within my expectations of E/E distancing like yes you have a reasonable sounding explanation for why you might do what you are doing as a villager but the elim motivations for doing it are imo much, much stronger Edit:
  5. DrakeMarshall
    Vote Tally JNV (4): Araris Valerian, DrakeMarshall, StrikerEZ, The Wandering Wizard Araris Valerian (1): Matrim's Dice Matrim's_Dice (1): JNV Yea that seems the most likely at least to me I think
  6. DrakeMarshall
    So my envisioned future, which may or may not have involved inciting a civil war thus providing the necessary blood sacrifice to complete the nationwide transmutation circle, has unfortunately been rendered impractical by a clarification by our eternally wise and benevolent GMs But changing the subject a little at this point I'm very sure the elim team is JNV/Matrim Unless somebody has a really amazingly logical explanation for why Matrim has been making a show of suspecting JNV for a while now, but has suddenly started advocating an Araris lynch instead now that JNV is actually in danger of getting voted up Araris has not suddenly become more suspicious, on the contrary, Araris has been scanned as village. There is no perfect way to hedge our bets against all possible elim teams but imma propose, propound, and proffer the plan where we throw the dice on JNV/Matrim
  7. DrakeMarshall
    Possible Eliminator Teams For the time being, I am looking at possible elim teams that don't require any of the following: A specific player to be a Confirmed Villager. The elims getting lucky and trolling a specific player they had no reason to believe at the time was a scanner. The elims using the NK on one of their own people to confuse us. While these all could happen, I believe any explanation that doesn't require any of these things is better than one that does. 1. Tani, Sart, Steel, (optional +1 dead player), JNV, Matrim Explanation: JNV lied about both of their scan results, because JNV is evil. Steel and Matrim are the 2 elims in Orlok's Tie Guy scan. One of Sart, Steel, or (optional +1 dead player) was the elim roleblocker who blocked Aman. JNV and Matrim are expressing suspicion of each other because they understand good distancing practice. 2. Tani, Sart, Steel, (1 of Shining/TJ/Archer), Wizard, Araris Explanation: Wizard lied about village scanning Araris, because Wizard is evil. Wizard is a troll, and poisoned both the Biplet scan and the Araris scan. The elims agreed to sacrifice 2 NKs to make Wizard more trusted. Steel and (1 of Shining/TJ/Archer) are the 2 elims in Orlok's Tie Guy scan. One of Sart, Steel, or (Shining/TJ/Archer) was the elim roleblocker who blocked Aman. 3. Tani, Sart, Steel, (1 of Shining/TJ/Archer), (optional +1 dead player), JNV Explanation: JNV is evil but has nonetheless been truthful about Matrim being a villager, and may optionally also have been truthful about Biplet being an elim. Steel and (1 of Shining/TJ/Archer) are the 2 elims in Orlok's Tie Guy Scan. The elim roleblocker who blocked Aman is one of the dead elims. 4. Tani, Sart, Steel, (1 of Shining/TJ/Archer), Biplet, Wizard Explanation: Wizard is evil but has nonetheless been truthful about Araris being a villager. The elims have no living trolls or roleblockers, and JNV's elim scan of Biplet is correct. Steel and (1 of Shining/TJ/Archer) are the 2 elims in Orlok's Tie Guy Scan. Me and the sacred numbers are in agreement that JNV is significantly more suspicious than Wizard. The question now is what the best order is to kill these people in I have an idea of what it might be.
  8. DrakeMarshall
    "After" plotting to take over implies that there is a point in time when the plotting stops
  9. DrakeMarshall
    Yea I'm not saying don't include the mechanic or even necessarily to make it harder if you think the difficulty level is good. It is a fun goal to aim for even if nobody hits it, and I'll believe you if you say it's difficult-but-possible, I haven't really done the math. Alls I'm saying is, I personally would never bet against the determination of certain players to find a way to shoot the moon
  10. DrakeMarshall
    I don't think it necessarily does either, but I do think it necessarily follows from Striker's stated assumptions, and this whole dealio is pinging my "motivated reasoning" alarm bells somewhat tbh Regardless I do think it helps to reason these things out in the open, and to be on the same page about which things follow as a consequence of what we know or assume. We have a lot of (alignment of one player) implies (alignment of another player) relations we have to juggle!! As a general rule of thumb, if X implies Y then that doesn't tell us a single thing about X, it can only possibly make Y more likely. If e!Fifth implies e!Kas then Kas is eviller than Fifth. If v!Fifth implies e!Kas then Kas is eviller than Fifth. If e!Fifth implies v!Kas then Fifth is eviller than Kas. If v!Fifth implies v!Kas then Fifth is eviller than Kas.
  11. DrakeMarshall
    That is irrelevant, because the only e!JNV situation also has e!Mat
  12. DrakeMarshall
    If you think that JNV being an elim guarantees Mat being an elim, then Mat is a better vote option. According to you, these are the possible situations: e!JNV e!Mat v!JNV v!Mat v!JNV e!Mat Notice how there are more occurences of e!Mat than e!JNV
  13. DrakeMarshall
    1. You're welcome 2. Hit me up on Discord and I'll share the rules link I already showed it to Kas a little bit ago and we had a lengthy conversation about it Be warned though if you want to see the rules that there are potentially *some* game secrets in the doc. Tbf, nothing is super secret, part of the reason for the secrecy is simply to avoid infodump (this game focuses on government and there can be a good number of distinct game states depending on what has happened so far, players only know what the current state is not all of the possible ones, although players are informed at each juncture which possible actions will significantly alter the game state). But it is something to disclaim, because there is information that I am not planning on revealing to the players up-front. 3. Interesting. Yes, the role interactions seem quite complex! I do like the way players killed in previous rounds are given increasingly powerful items, this is a nice way to give the losing side more chances to make a comeback if they can earn one. Also a consolation prize for losing your rupees on dying (which tends to cut the other way, naturally). Can items be passed around? 4. "near impossible"
  14. DrakeMarshall
    Aman, I hate to break it to you but you are not especially in the clear of being an elim Confirmed Villager yea you’ve demonstrated knowledge about the goalkeeper role but what if one of your teammates had it? If said teammate had since perished, that would also handily explain why you’ve apparently pathologically been avoiding using it to protect anyone during this game It also addresses the fact that AFAIK you are the only player who has claimed to have 2 distinct night actions to be able to choose from. If it weren’t for you, I could draw the conclusion that “1 role-based night action at most per player” was a rule in the distro, but you are the exception, if you are to be believed. Finally, it addresses the fact that none of our current suspects actually feel all that suspicious tbh Confirmed Villager e!Aman actually works very well as an explanation to several oddities Now, tinfoil aside the odds are still high you’re a villager, since a priori you being an elim confirmed villager just isn’t as likely as you being a villager, plus I think e!you could have already won by now by not dallying with two village-assisted WGGs so while I know you like gambits that one really doesn’t make too much sense to me if you’re evil, plus I think there’s a chance Fadran was just an elim and everyone is overthinking But sir you are not in the clear If you believe the implication flows that way, which I think is contentious honestly, but if you do, then you really should vote Matrim and not JNV. If e!JNV implies e!Mat, then that means there are no worlds where Mat is village where JNV is not also village, therefore according to your assumptions Mat is strictly eviller than JNV however, I do think that in the worlds where Mat isn’t a confirmed villager it would be the other way around, with e!Mat implying e!JNV. And while Mat totally could be a confirmed villager as pointed out by yours truly a few nights ago I’m not really willing to assume it to be the case either mood
  15. DrakeMarshall
    not to put too fine a point on it but I'm pretty sure exing you does account for it I guess I should read LG89
  16. DrakeMarshall
    Why would e!Ada be in violation of the 2 role max? Is "elim" a role? This check sounds vaguely reasonable but it also is angling to take a protect off the board on a cycle where it could quite possibly make the difference The only thing that sticks in my brain as weird about all this is that it implies both of our meme makers are evil, which is just weird from a role analysis perspective, though not impossible. Who was it again that confirmed meme maker was a legit role? And how?
  17. DrakeMarshall
    1. This is a very cool and original mechanical premise. 2. It is interesting that you are kind of fusing SE and Avalon. I have a game ruleset in a doc that kind of fuses SE and Secret Hitler. It is absolutely nothing like yours though 3. The balance of this thing is hard for me to analyze. My instinct is that it somewhat favors the elims in general, but that if the village gets lucky and wins during the first loop then that significantly tilts the rest of the game in the village's favor. 4. When you include an item like the Fierce Deity Mask and set a high bar but not an impossible one, be aware that players will figure out a way to obtain it 4a. Do not underestimate the ability to gain a fraction of the money from people you vote for or kill.
  18. DrakeMarshall
    The sacred numbers don't really believe JNV's scan. However, I think I might. There was resistance to voting up Biplet in the early game. The elims blocked a kill targeting Biplet, that they knew or strongly suspected would be targeting Biplet. I low-key elim read Biplet's response to when Aman was pushing Biplet, and mainly decided not to focus on it because other people I suspected more were alive. The main point for village Biplet is that Sart accused Biplet. But this is not a simple thing. Claiming to have a red scan on an elim teammate is a conceivable strategy. Yes, it makes it highly likely that one of you will die, but it also makes it pretty likely that one of you will live, and that's important. D5 was a day where the vote was largely split between 2 elims, they were probably already going to lose at least 1 person no matter what, so such a desperate but effective strategy isn't totally unreasonable. Also yes as JNV points out I can't terminally seek Araris on the other hand I can hit JNV. Because if JNV is telling the truth about everything then the game probably ought to end after killing Araris, and if it doesn't well then we know who to kill. It just seems like for e!JNV to be pulling this with the expectation of winning at the end of it, they would need to at least have an ability to either interfere with my action or get in an extra kill somewhere, but if the elims had access to either of those I feel they'd probably have used it already at some point during the last 3 nights when it would have allowed them to actually take out the most problematic and trusted villagers. Or Wizard's secretly evil Or Aman's secretly evil Or I'm secretly evil Or all 3 of us are secretly the elim team Or JNV is village but Matrim is an elim Confirmed Villager but in this case I still think the village still wins most likely. Idk I don't usually focus so much on mechanics when solving and it feels weird But weird games call for weird solutions >:P
  19. DrakeMarshall
    Okay so correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure we can just vote Araris and then if the game doesn't end I can pacifistically seek JNV And one way or another this will result in peace, freedom, justice, and security being restored to the galaxy (Possibly after another cycle of killing Matrim as well but... details. The point is that I am pretty sure we will be able to pull it off unless the elims have something up their sleeve more than the obvious.) Square gang represent!!!!!!
  20. DrakeMarshall
    sorry the sacred numbers said it was you or JNV and while I know JNV not dying is becoming a meme I still don't particularly elim read JNV that said, seeing as the game is still happening, I will either vote JNV or Araris today, probably pending what our PM spiders have dug up speaking of which Bip would you happen to know if Wizard was trolled? you may have noticed I don't entirely trust you and would therefore prefer to know what you found before we all find out what Wizard's result was Oh sick I'm still sorry for killing you Bip but it sounds like maybe it was the right move I still need to think about whether I believe this claim tho bc I don't trust JNV entirely but tentatively this sounds like splendid news
  21. DrakeMarshall
    well I suppose I technically predicted both kills although one of them you could say I had a rather unfair advantage for
  22. DrakeMarshall
    You supposedly can't be exed though which if you're village the elims might not like to deal with in the endgame ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  23. DrakeMarshall
    I can see a logic here, but it's interesting how you assume you won't ever be targeted by the elim kill.
  24. DrakeMarshall
    May I recommend that our resident meme makers each check one of the PM spiders scanning tonight? I think that is the main type of action tonight where knowing if trolled or not makes a big difference, right?
  25. DrakeMarshall
    Kas usually runs no vote minimum games? Kas is this tru I am pretty sure its at least a little weird not to have any vote minimum there is not a "no exe" vote rule explicitly stated in the rules or whatever but I asked about it I am reasonably convinced that this does actually have a specific purpose although it probably isn't actually a mystery we need to solve
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