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DrakeMarshall

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Everything posted by DrakeMarshall

  1. DrakeMarshall
    I'm a little weirded out that nobody has claimed to have caused the double-lynch, but I'm still reasonably sure a villager is responsible. I think if the elims got a role that let them cause the top 2 voted people to get exed, that would be somewhat gamebreaking at parity, where they could mechanically guarantee that either Fifth or Kas gets exed without the village likely being able to do anything about it. Sart potentially breaking the tie doesn't really involve Steel though? That tie was between Biplet and Ashbringer. Steel was involved in a D3 tie but I don't think Sart voted in that one. any particular reason why TJ and not Ash? other then the admittedly very suspicious fact that the sacred numbers say TJ's suspiciousness value is 666
  2. DrakeMarshall
    Yes, good. Let the memes flow through you.
  3. DrakeMarshall
    so on the one hand im pretty sure whatever happened last cycle was probably somehow a win for the village on the other hand i dont really know where we go from here i wonder if the elims will visit me tonight probably interesting fact, though: the sacred numbers tell me TJ's suspicion levels are 666
  4. DrakeMarshall
    there's a prequel meme for everything in addition to Fifth's excellent choice, I submit the following:
  5. DrakeMarshall
    I kinda do, yes. i really want a vote count and im pretty sure mine is incorrect and yet again we dont have time >:| edit: I'm pretty sure the VC means Steel is getting exed today but again my VC is probably wrong edit2: All of these people grabbing off-ramps from the Sart vote the minute they're offered isn't the best look
  6. DrakeMarshall
    uhhh controlling the exe yea? i think i am willing to take my chances, on the basis that i dont think this was an intentional slip outing yourself to buy a single cycle is a poor trade and i dont think we're that close to lylo this requires sart to have sat on a redscan all of D4 this also does not account for sart's N4 scan the timing of sart doing this is also just incredibly sus
  7. DrakeMarshall
    wonderful thank you i had just found one of Ashbringer's role summaries which does specifically say "on the last turn" but i feel a lot better getting a straight answer from the horse's mouth so to speak pretty sure Sart can't reasonably be village then yes, it is probably a ploy to save e!Steel, but I'd rather exe definitely-evil-Sart than probably-evil-Steel also yes what Archer said I didn't think of that but yes Orlok is scanning Steel edit: also, this is yet another day turn where the vote switches in the last-half-hour o_0 my favorite
  8. DrakeMarshall
    wait can vote analysts do the scan based on any day's voting, or only the votes of the previous day?? @The Bookwyrm @Orlok Tsubodai sorry to @ you guys but this would be really good to know: Can a vote analyst scan anyone who they have voted for in past cycles, or just the previous day? related to that but it is very confusing that sart would vote for and then unvote bip d4 regardless, most of the vote analysts we've had seem to be voting in order to get scans off I mean yea seems likely
  9. DrakeMarshall
    Sart bro you didn't even vote for Biplet yesterday, you retracted your vote ergo, you could not have scanned Biplet last night, since AFAIK vote analysts can only scan people who voted for them or who they voted for ergo, your claim cannot possibly be true
  10. DrakeMarshall
    Oh my goodness I want to vote Sart so bad rn must… avoid… behaving… rashly
  11. DrakeMarshall
    so i have entreated the sacred numbers for further advice and they have clarified that it is decently likely one of steel or ash is evil, but they prefer steel edit; also yea steel that pfp is sick
  12. DrakeMarshall
    Yea but Orlok has the vote analyst power rn, letting him scan people he votes for killing Steel and scanning him are non mutually exclusive activities in this game although this does beg the question of whether its a waste to kill somehody who we will be getting a scan of which in turn begs the question of how much do i trust Orlok I suppose its kind of a moot point, since you only get 1 action per night, huh wait do you? I guess I just kinda assumed that was the case you are literally the only person we know of who has 2 night abilities so you make an interesting case study
  13. DrakeMarshall
    sounds like a slip tbh yeah thats weird so i guess that means either the elims thought you would kill and were scared of that more than they were of a scan, or that Bookwyrm’s scan was tampered with Bookwyrm’s scan getting tampered with I think requires that Araris is evil since IIRC Araris claimed to have verified Book wasn’t trolled on the night Orlok was scanned An Araris and Orlok team is a possibility edit; btw can any trolls confirm or deny that self targeting is not possible?
  14. DrakeMarshall
    Me too, you have no idea how fun that would be for at least one of us This is vile calumny. I do not shoot people, or kill them. I am a devout pacifist. You are forgiven, but you’re getting Striker and Steel confused. Striker is the one with the lynchbait role, who was scanned as village by Bookwyrm on D1 and subsequently cleared Aman using the lynchbait role. I think. I didn’t actually read those cycles I’m just going off Ashbringer’s summary. Steel is the one who copied the Tie Guy role after you, and also apparently scanned as an elim today although that’s unreliable. A scan on Aman would certainly be valid as a reality check. Other then that, there is a Fae->Wizard dependency, and a JNV->Matrim dependency, so either a scan on Fae or JNV should resolve some dependencies.
  15. DrakeMarshall
    Isn't the possibility that he's an e!roleblocker, like, basically because he hasn't claimed? Don't get me wrong, I agree with you. Any kind of PoE-based roles analysis does not favor Sart. Think the elims have a roleblocker? Sart could be a roleblocker. Think the elims have a troll? Sart could be a troll. Think the elims have a PM spider? Sart could be a PM spider. If you are focusing mainly on that type of analysis, then yeah, Sart for sure comes in last place. I have it on good authority that the message you get from targeting Archer unequivocally states that your action fails. Not that I would know from firsthand experience or anything ;). Whereas it sounds like targeting Sart resulted in a message like "you attempted to do X to Sart." I don't know what this means, but I do know the effect surrounding Sart doesn't seem to be the exact same thing as Archer's power. Although it does seem very similar. I agree with all of this. Hm. Well that's a bit awkward. So rn we're voting between one player who hasn't shown up in the cycle yet and another player who hasn't shown up in the cycle yet. Feels kinda bad, even if the reasons are there In a shocking turn of events, people who aren't there don't do a very good job of defending themselves ...The discussion has been surprisingly vital though, all things considered
  16. DrakeMarshall
    ...halfway there... ...I admit I'm at least a little paranoid by the sheer number of votes on Steel...
  17. DrakeMarshall
    I mean, with the number of Steel voters, it does seem likely that elims are in there, but I think it paints a very different picture depending on whether they were in the first few votes or the last few votes of the Steel train. One implies v!Steel, the other doesn't. Also, there were a lot of people involved in scanning Steel. If the elims wanted to frame Steel, that would not actually be that easy. ...But alright. I'll entertain the assumption of village!Steel, for one post. See where it leads me, at least. Everything after this point is analysis under the assumption that Steel is a villager. I do not think he is one, but these are things I think would follow from it if he were. There are two sides of this. Vote Analysis If Steel is village, then this is a premeditated frame-up. Therefore, some of the early votes that kicked off the Steel train are probably cast by elims. I am arbitrarily going to decide that my cutoff for this is the first 5 votes. The first 5 votes on Steel were: Me Wizard Araris Matrim Fadran Some of these people ought to be evil. Role Analysis Araris, Biplet, Fadran, and Randby were all potentially involved in guaranteeing the legitimacy of the scan. If the elims framed Steel, then for each of those players, there most likely ought to be a reason they were unable to guarantee the legitimacy of the scan. Either because they are evil, or because the elims took an action against them. Randby: Village, due to being the NK target (NKing an elim to line up a single ML is a bad trade). Therefore, required an action from the elims to troll. Fadran: Either evil and trolled Randby while claiming to be blocked, or village and required an action from the elims to block. Biplet: Highly suspicious. Biplet claims to have taken a successful action last night. If village!Biplet, her Meme Maker scan could ruin the entire elim plan to frame Steel, so why didn't they interfere with her action??? Difficult to explain this if Biplet is village. Araris: Araris could be evil and lying about not submitting an action, or he could be village and unaware that the elims targeted him. Again, some of these people ought to be evil. I do not believe past cycles have given us very much evidence that the elims could field a whopping 4 roleblock+troll actions (if they were capable of this, I strongly doubt Bookwyrm would have gotten as many scans done before dying). So the simplest explanation is some of them are evil. Conclusions [Biplet, Fadran, Araris] are all suspicious. Entirely plausible that multiple elims exist within this pool.
  18. DrakeMarshall
    Wizard did indeed target me N3, you are correct. That does, at least, confirm that you are a genuine spider, and that you weren't doing anything else with your action last night Which is somewhat valuable in of itself. Well, either that or you're E/E with Wizard. But by extension that would require you to be E/E/E with Wizard and Fae, so I think that hypothesis is unlikely.
  19. DrakeMarshall
    Reads list: Evidence:
  20. DrakeMarshall
    No I don't agree that this is necessarily the case. Sart literally hasn't posted since the vote shenanigans, so we really don't know what they were thinking. There was enough confusion at the time that I'm not going to immediately assume it was eliminator action. Could it have been? Yes. I'll agree that an elim potentially has more ulterior motives for doing this than a villager. But Sart absolutely wasn't the only person making last-minute changes to the vote. And the fact of the matter is, a lot of those last-minute changes canceled out and the tie still ended up happening. I don't think you can say that everyone making last-minute changes is an eliminator, and so I don't think you can say that there are no reasons a villager would vote during the end of the cycle. Also, I will remind you that if Steel is evil, then this tie is completely irrelevant. This argument only holds water if Steel is village, which means it is not going to be very convincing to me or presumably others who think Steel is an elim. Yes I do actually. I have mentioned that the fact Sart hasn't claimed might actually be a slight point for village!Sart. In a game like this, with no flips and a bunch of roleclaiming, it seems decently likely that the elims would have developed a plan in their doc for what each of them would claim. If they didn't coordinate this it could be bad for them, right? I would definitely try to hammer out a concerted plan for what everyone claims if I was in their shoes. This is supported by the fact that it is only Sart who hasn't claimed. This makes Sart stick out, which does not seem like something the elims would want, and it gives us evidence that most of the elims must have already claimed. They aren't just being lazy and not thinking of things to claim, most likely. I would look slightly more suspiciously at unsubstantiated roleclaims, or roleclaims where the accounting for that player's actions feel sketchy. Is this a strong village credence? Not really. Like I said, a Sart lynch sounds okay to me. But I do in fact have some reason to believe Sart is a villager. Does it though? If you think the redscan result on Steel is fake, then the elims would have to have planned it before today. In which case, the fact that a Sart wagon developed earlier today has very little bearing. In the world where Steel is village, they would have voted up Steel today no matter what.
  21. DrakeMarshall
    Vote Tally Steeldancer (8): Araris Valerian, Archer, Channelknight Fadran, DrakeMarshall, Matrim's Dice, The Wandering Wizard, The last Fae in the Woods, |TJ| Sart (2): Amanuensis, Ashbringer Okay I guess this isn't going to go away if I ignore it huh So on the one hand, if you ignore that Stick shot Tani, I would be reasonably suspicious of me too. On the other hand, I don't really see how you ignore that sticking point. I mean yes I'm not solidly cleared but it feels like a pretty convincing argument. If you really want me to explain what I was going for with claiming that Stick shot TKN then I can do so but don't expect it to make sense Of the other people you listed: I will go to bat for Mat I wouldn't mind an exe on Sart I don't really have any read of JNV, but would probably oppose their exe unless PoE or some other evidence pointed that way more strongly that way than it currently does Take that how you will.
  22. DrakeMarshall
    Or the Confirmed Villager role could be given to elims. Nothing in the description Fadran provided says that it has to be given to villagers, only that it makes people scan as village. And I am fairly sure the humor of making an elim a "confirmed villager" would not be lost on our GMs Agree, this scan result is fairly inconclusive. Steel could be village, I don't think that's really in question. Or at least, I don't think it should be Steel could also be evil though, and independent of the scan I think Steel's Tie Guy claim is sketchy. Is there a particular reason you village read Steel, or is it more just Vibes:tm: Tbf, Sart got like 4 votes at the beginning of this day turn, so I don't think Sart is slipping under the radar exactly Goalkeeper is strictly a night action right? Aman has 2 different night actions to choose between, not 1 day and 1 night. Which is interesting, because if not for that I would conclude that people aren't given role combinations that result in having 2 different night actions. On a mostly unrelated note, if dead elims can take kill actions, can they be roleblocked? Edit: Ash ninja'd me
  23. DrakeMarshall
    No, it doesn’t. Steel was the one who reported the results for the second tie. It Steel is an elim, then those results are invalid. That said, I respect a healthy skepticism about scans. Trolling is still a fairly large possibility here. That said, I still don’t trust Steel, and therefore won’t complain too hard that everyone suddenly decided to vote for him
  24. DrakeMarshall
    I think the only reasonable way to evaluate all of these claims is to take them as a probability. Contingent on the person making the claim not being village, being messed with by a troll or confirmed villager, or just plain being incorrect about what happened. Anyways, I'm curious as to what the deal is with Sart as well, although a priori I don't see how weirdness surrounding targeting Sart is especially alignment indicative. Except in that I am surprised that this appears to both be a very similar but also different ability from what Archer has, which probably means something? But I don't know what yet. Sart is a reasonably suspicious individual for other reasons, though: Sart's voting decision at EoD was a lil funky, and besides that any kind of role-based PoE includes Sart due to being the only player who hasn't claimed any role yet. On the other hand... If only one person hasn't claimed, then I think it's pretty clear that the elim doc has decided to take a more proactive policy with roleclaiming. So honestly that might point to village!Sart. The Sart train makes some amount of sense, but regardless, I have already registered my preference that we execute Steel. I believe that e!Steel has a clear motive to lie about there being 2 elims in the D4 Tie Guy pool since Steel was in Orlok's D3 Tie Guy pool but not in that one. Vote Tally Sart (4): Amanuensis, Archer, Ashbringer, |TJ| Steeldancer (1): DrakeMarshall There may or may not be votes missing from this tally, you know the drill. Please @ me if you find any
  25. DrakeMarshall
    I mean, the player who was supposed to scan you hasn't posted yet, so the fact that you're in defense mode already over that feels a bit telling, but that's none of my business :P. My vote is cast independent of any scan that may or may not have happened against you today, although I am still very interested in what Randby will say when they get online. I voted for you because: Your Tie Guy results seem dubious. I believe you are 1 of the 2 elims found in Orlok's Tie Guy scan. At least, I'm pretty sure that's why the sacred numbers told me to vote for you. The sacred numbers work in mysterious ways
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