DrakeMarshall

smh why would you lie about your alignment if you were a villager >:| no but you’re right I should not have doubted you, I believe you’ve been truthful about everything and it was very considerate of you if I do say so it’s almost a shame we aren’t actually on the same team

Right but v!me wins by killing elims. This is something I would do from either side of the alignment divide. Do you have particular reasons to have e!Drake credences, other then that it would be concerning if true?

I admire your courage but you are not a legal target!! Stick actually already asked about this in our GM PM to find out if there was a way to banish orange players into the dead doc. I'm not sure why Stick would want to do this but there you have it.

hmm you know the fact that you confidently assert that i would assume im innocent as part of an argument about why i am potentially dangerous and not to be trusted sounds like a slip to me but that's none of my business likewise the fact that you frame it as "drake has presumed I'm evil and there's nothing i can do about it" does not sound like an especially village take to me? FWIW i haven't decided you're definitely evil, i have some reasons to suspect you which we could talk about if you want, but i also have several reasons to village read you regardless, is this actually pertinent? again, e!Drake is going to murder everyone whether you like it or not, we've been over this So why is me presuming im innocent a bad thing? Either I am in fact innocent so I'm 100% correct to behave that way, or I'm evil and this conversation is completely performative And whether I think you are suspicious or not also doesn't really affect who I shoot? Since you're apparently immune to being terminally sought I apologize for my particular methods of discovering your immunity but well I made the decision I thought was the best one ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ all we really can do So anyway I'm not sure about what impact you are proposing this has on my ability or decision-making to do coinshot things. I mean, if you can come up with better reasons, I might not use my ability tonight, but right now I am going to be using it. I could appeal to the fact that other players seem to think it's a good idea for me to use it too, but at the end of the day it's my decision Hey, question: let's, for a moment, assume that it is inevitable that I use my ability tonight. Who would you pick?

hey, question sorry to be nitpicking on details and what have you but as this is a blackout game i genuinely do not know what i would and wouldn't put past you is the fact that Fae is orange in this writeup a clerical error, or is everything in this player list as it should be:

i wonder who the elims will attack...

If I was an elim troll, I wouldn’t claim. Or more specifically I wouldn’t claim to be a troll. I’d claim something else. neither Steel nor Sart nor Tani have role claims that we can really believe and there are other, living players that could easily have a secret second role, I mean it seems like almost every cycle somebody is pulling a new trick out of their sleeve like what Ashbringer did to kill Sart I ostensibly only have a single role. If Fadran is playing the long game, that implies you think the game is going to go long. Do we think the game is gonna go long? Cuz in that case, shooting is worth it. Not the biggest chess guy, but, like, chess, right? A trade favors the side with more pieces. The village has more pieces. If some elims get hit and some villagers get hit, that ultimately is still village-sided. For two, I’m not just shooting random villagers I’m closing the PoE on players that appear suspicious. Also, PM spiders only get information every other cycle and even then it’s only a 1/N chance to be an alignment scan and even then the alignment scan is still not 100% reliable. And all of our other scanner roles have turned orange. So coasting on scanners just doesn’t seem tenable, if it ever even was.

internal screaming intensifies

here is your quokka tbh I don't really want to seek JNV but like who else should I even hit? is there anybody more suspicious left? Archer isn't on the menu lol and the numbers the sacred numbers still think JNV should be sacrificed i have the sneaking suspicion this is just a re-enactment of the last cycle of the Jedi game PoE tends to lead to JNV and then JNV is just sorta chill about it

Yea, this is a very good point. It really isn't that rare when you're on an elim team for a player to forget to put in an order for their ability, or to put in an order and then go offline so your teammates can't reach you to change it in accordance with a new plan. And this sort of thing is really why I don't think we need to conceive of a reality where the elims were playing optimally with all of their actions on every night. I usually try to be more proactive about discussing and coordinating such things when I'm in a doc, but only because not doing that has bitten me in the past Probably, we could read into which players would be more likely to make up a less communicative doc.

ok so this is probably not a surprise? but I'm leaning towards terminally seeking JNV rn Any questions, comments, concerns? While I make no particular promises to listen you can certainly voice them Also... Not particularly related to anything, but I am realizing this game has some pretty fun endgame situations for if it gets down to a really low player count. If it gets down to 1v1 village vs. elim in the final day of the game, it isn't just some lame coin toss to decide the vote, it's basically a big court trial between them with the orange players as judges, juries, and executioners. Which sounds very fun Alternatively, if it gets to a 1v1 on a night turn where it's me versus an elim (other than Archer I suppose bc RIP in that case), then the game probably draws, because everyone dies. If this happens, then the GMs actually succeed in inciting a civil war, thus providing the necessary blood sacrifice to complete the nationwide transmutation circle and create a sufficiently powerful philosopher's stone to attain God

Didn't have enough time to post this b4 rollover but I wanted to

sorry not sorry

JNV voted for Archer: Vote Tally Channelknight Fadran (5): Archer, Ashbringer, Biplet, Matrim's Dice, The Wandering Wizard Archer (4): Amanuensis, Araris Valerian, DrakeMarshall, JNV Kasimir (1): Channelknight Fadran ...i think its hard to keep track

>:|

JNV Archer.

Evil!Mat requires evil!JNV right? Or are you asserting that you believe Mat is an elim Confirmed Villager? It is not impossible.

Sure, I'll bite, JNV.

Oh, you did? Well then that settles that quite nicely. Wonder what the elims have been up to... Although the answer to that riddle is possibly "being dead."

i gotchu fam i just added to my post edit: fair warning though, the tally is made by tallybot, and its a well-known fact that bots are the enemy of us all

Well, there could be three elims left, I think? That still falls below 25%. But I agree that it may be unlikely. For one, I suspect the concept of a blackout flipless game inherently favors the elims and that there might be fewer elims to balance that out (then again... with the number of village power roles, maybe not?). And also, it's conceivable that some elims might be dead and we don't even know it. It would certainly be funny if all three players who got votes D5 were elims, but I feel that it's more likely for only one of (Steel, Fadran) to be evil. And that's probably Steel. right??? meanwhile I was just having a quiet chill memeful game while the neutral stressed about analysis and helping the village win sheer and utter madness >:P so you want me to discuss who I am thinking of shooting publicly in the thread, and then maybe post something near EoD if I'm worried about being blocked? my guy if you look closely I did all of that last night or do you disagree...? EDIT Tbh, I think occam's razor says the surviving elim team rn is JNV/Matrim. It's just that my gut says this explanation is wrong. Players: Ashbringer: Allegedly unlynchable, killed e!Sart. Wizard: Fae claims Wizard is village. My gut says Wizard maybe isn't. Fadran: Actually, v!Steel and e!Fadran is still a possibility. Aman says they successfully trolled Orlok's scan but I don't think Aman would actually know if he got trolled by Fadran, thus causing Aman to grant Orlok troll immunity instead of trolling Orlok. In an e!Steel world, though (which I feel is simpler because it handily explains why the elims freaked out when the vote was split between 2 of them and came up with Sart's Vote Analyst claim as a bid to save their sinking ship), I'm not sure what e!Fadran gains by... Oh wait. No, I do see what e!Fadran gains by claiming to be roleblocked and then trolling someone other than Randby. Suppose e!Fadran trolled Araris. Then, assuming Araris actually checked for trolling on Randby, he would get a wrong result. Everyone would disregard the e!scan on Steel, since Araris reported Randby was trolled, and they might probably actually clear Steel, since it looked like the elims tried and failed to sabotage the scan. This would actually be a pretty good plan for the elims to try. But Araris forgot to check Randby thus foiling the elims plan This... Actually makes a surprising amount of sense. JNV: Claims to have scanned Matrim as village with PM spider role. Could be lying. Although, since nobody knew at this point that PM spiders could even do that, this probably lowers the chances that e!JNV would think to make it up. Matrim: JNV claims Matrim is village. My gut tentatively agrees, but PoE from the Orlok Tie Guy scan says Matrim has a decent chance of being evil. Biplet: Pretty much the sole thing pointing to village!Biplet is that it looks an awful lot like e!Sart tried to derail a lynch onto Biplet. This is a pretty good evidence for v!Biplet, but it is also just a single piece of evidence, and clearing anyone off of any single piece of evidence is bad business. Wizard claims to have observed Biplet using the Meme Maker role on N2, although the way Wizard said it sounded like they were saying Biplet trolled on N2 at first so that's kinda weird. Araris: Initial claimant to the Meme Maker role. Probably does genuinely possess that role, and this is a village-sided role although I don't think that would prevent Kas from giving it to the elims. I feel like a lot of what Araris is saying reflects my thinking as well which kind of makes me village read him. Aman: Village unless e!Striker and either e!Bookwyrm or trolled!Bookwyrm (D1) and this seems hard to argue. Archer: Reasons to vote Archer 1) In the PoE from Orlok's Tie Guy 2) Steel's (most likely fake) Tie Guy result seems designed to draw less attention to the members who aren't in both sets of which Archer is one 3) is a PM spider 4) has a stronger version of smoker that feels very elim sided 5) elim reading Archer's posts 6) I can't coinshot Archer apparently, so the vote is the only way he can be dealt with Reasons not to vote Archer 1) Archer pushed Steel twice, once on D3 and once on D5. Would e!Archer do that? 2) Archer appears to have a very similar role to e!Sart. Does that make sense in an e!Archer world? Drake: I am Drake, and Drake means me! Fae: Claims to have started the game with an "SE Buddy" (Wizard). While I believe that this is indeed a role that exists, I don't think we can be sure that this means v!Fae, or that the rules of "SE Buddy" say something like "you have a friend of the same alignment" instead of "you have a friend you know is village." So it is inconclusive. Whomst indeed. Honestly, the main thing keeping me from voting Fadran rn is that everyone's already doing it, and this fact flares up my contrarian impulses How much do I believe all of the Fadran voters are village? Vote Tally Channelknight Fadran (5): Amanuensis, Ashbringer, Biplet, Matrim's Dice, The Wandering Wizard Archer (2): Araris Valerian, DrakeMarshall DrakeMarshall (1): Archer

Wait, I know why that is. It's because Archer voted for Steeldancer both D3 and D5. During D3 this was a tie between Walin and Steel where Steel was in legitimate danger but survived. During D5 this was when Steeldancer got voted out, but Archer was one of the earlier and more vocal votes for Steel. Hmmmmmmm. I think e!Orlok is possible, but has a lot of dependencies it requires. Silhouette was not killed by the elims, and honestly, Silhouette + Steel being the 2 elims in Orlok's scan might be the simplest explanation at this point. Fae/Wiz team, anyone?

Tbf, I've PM'd neutrals with the intention of making a deal before as a villager The neutral in question subsequently rejected my payment and then still continued to do everything he could to help the village Guess who it was See, this is the thing. I village read JNV too, but I am not confident in that read. It sits wrong going after somebody I village read, even though frankly the mechanical analysis points towards JNV on at least a couple of counts: PoE with Orlok's tie guy scan still includes Matrim, and JNV has announced a village scan on Matrim, therefore all of that PoE suspicion on Matrim commutes to JNV. PoE on the assumption that the elims would be given a PM Spider includes JNV. The (admittedly very small) Monty Hall thing with the Striker scan making e!JNV slightly more likely. Then again... Most of those things also apply to Archer, so I'm not sure exactly why the sacred numbers are insisting JNV is more suspicious...

Awfully convenient Where do you fall on JNV? The sacred numbers are convinced JNV is the most suspicious living player, followed by Fae, and only then do the likes of Fadran and Archer come up. However, the sacred numbers are also convinced that Silhouette was the second elim in Orlok's Tie Guy scan, so that probably explains it. I think, technically, due to the Monty Hall problem, everyone who voted for Striker D1 other than Bookwyrm is slightly more likely to be evil.

If I didn’t have very high village!Aman credences I would call this a slip Regardless, I think “it would be pretty next-level troll” is a pretty good indicator that Kas and Fifth considered doing it Again, I would not discount the possibility that there is a single “Confirmed Villager” in the game and that they are evil Yeah, pretty much this. Isn’t Archer a PM spider?