Jondesu
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Everything posted by Jondesu
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I would bet there’s likely two Elims remaining: one UIB agent (if the theories about that are correct, though those honestly depend on quite a bit of luck for that role, finding the ones they hit) and one inactive. Like you said, perhaps another useful role, or maybe they just missed rollover or something similar. @The Flash, Cluny is right to ask for something more. That’s about the laziest way to vote, and is very suspicious except that it’s so suspicious. Edit: Just realized we don’t have much in the way of inactives. In fact, did anyone not post last cycle?
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I've been wary of Cluny for a while (I've mentioned it a few times), but I don't have a good solid reason. If two Elims were leading the lynch and they couldn't do anything about it, they could try tying up the vote with a secret vote (assuming they have a Firebrand) and trying to clear thr survivor. That would have only cleared Cluny if Lopen still died, though, and if Cluny had died and was an Elim, we'd probably lynch Lopen next anyways. I'd say it wouldn't make much sense as a gamble, so while I can't clear Cluny, I'm gonna set aside my suspicion of him for a bit. @StrikerEZ, please don't guard against me tonight. Edit: Wait, I forgot that the Firebrand submits their secret vote the night before. I'm not sure what to make of that, but I think it makes me lean more village on Cluny.
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Yeah, I know, I saw you'd mentioned that, and I remembered it being brought up. I meant that the way he talked about it sounded like an Elim.
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Obviously I haven't been analyzing much this game, but I took a look back at Lopen's post earlier this cycle, and the way he references the odds of the Elims having a UIB agent, and the slim chances of them finding Len by chance, reads like an Elim who knows what his team did and is trying to make it seem plausible or else divert from whatever they actually did. Sorry, Lopen, but I'm getting an Elim vibe from you as well.
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Wow...sign me up in advance, I love that approach to the roles.
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I wouldn't assume that. Just because the PC hasn't killed yet, doesn't mean that they're in active. They could be using cytonics to guard, while they try to get a firm enough suspicion to use a kill.
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That would probably work out very poorly for us. Most likely very few Elims would be caught by cytonics, while they would get a successful kill almost every night. The odds are just against us with that plan.
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No one guard against me. Ever. Oh wait, just @Ecthelion III, please don't guard against me with cytonics tonight.
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Yeah, speaking as someone who has tried to do that as an Elim...I could believe it. Not saying I think you did, but it's possible. Yeah, mayoring is a weird thing to accuse you of for that...you weren't telling people what to do or what plan to follow, just asking them to participate. Cluny, I was wary of you, but with that comment it sounds like you're trying to push people away from joining the lynch, which isn't a good thing at all.
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I don't know that I really understand this plan of telling someone not to guard against you (haven't been able to process it yet), but in the interest of killing two birds with one stone: @asterion137, will you both come back (I don't believe I've seen you post, apologies if I'm just forgetting) and please not guard against me tonight?
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By all means, please do share. It's always best to know your suspicions even if you're not acting on them yet.
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I won't be awake when the cycle rolls over, so I'm going to put down a vote on Randuir. The issue has been discussed at length, but having seen Rand work in previous games, I can see him attempting to throw one neutral to the wolves in order to bring the others to the Elims side (or at least make them stay quiet on the sidelines and not announce themselves or help the village). I know it's not an exceptionally strong case against him, but it's the best I've seen, and it's pretty good for a day 1 lynch like this.
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@BrightnessRadiant, I didn't provide any analysis this game yet because I've got a ton of stuff on my plate. I said from the beginning that I wouldn't be able to spend a lot of time on the game, and nothing about that has changed. I also said I wanted to wait to hear from Joe, rather than that I wanted to lynch him specifically. That's why you'll notice I didn't actually vote on him. I still might mean that way under the right circumstances, but Wilson's response and others has convinced me that he probably is just being Joe, rather than really trying to hurt the village.
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Darn, missed that (or rather, forgot when I was making that post). Disregard all my reasoning about Flash, unless PK was lying for some reason, but I can't see why he'd do that. The Flash PK. I agree that while coming out and admitting it would be a little weird for an Elim, I can't see any good reason to protect yourself from being scanned, which was the express reason he gave.
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Alright, so I looked back through Bridge Boy's posts, and he was cleverly playing dumb about not knowing the name of the UIB Agent role (obviously he did know, since he was one), and he had three suspicions: Arinian (now dead), Yitzi, and PK. However, only one person placed a vote on him, supposedly by a random number generator. The Flash, I suspect that he scanned you because of your vote on him (thinking Yitzi and PK would be likely to be defending against him if they were Elim, but that you might think you were safe or have another action to place), and that you got him with a Cytonic defense, while someone else on your team placed the Elim kill against cloudjumper. @The Flash, I know you say you're busy, and I totally get that, but do you have any way to refute my theory?
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@A Joe in the Bush, you still haven't responded to the claim Straw is making (you haven't posted in the thread since then, in fact). I personally would like to hear from you before I decide what to do, but I do have to agree with Rand that if you're offering to work with the Elims (and genuinely mean it, instead of some type of ploy), you'd be worth lynching even though you're not an Elim yourself. Neutrals planning to work against the village are just as much a threat to us as the Elims themselves, potentially.
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You're not the only one to have said this, but you were the most recent, so I'm quoting you. I agree with this basic assessment that cloudjumper had to be the Elim kill, unless a PCO jumped into action fast. I hope they didn't, since that's a dangerous thing to do. Sucks to have lost our UIB Agent so fast. I'm hoping BB didn't get killed by being obvious about who he was planning to scan, but I also hope he left us a clue of some type. I don't know if I'll get a chance to comb for it myself, though. The chances of finding out what’s really going on in the universe are so remote, the only thing to do is hang the sense of it and keep yourself occupied.
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I don't. I'm terrible about PMs. I have a ton this game though, none of which I started, although I'm not being very active in any of them. Took an unexpected nap on the couch today instead. @Crimsn-Wolf, just a note particularly on what you said about Wilson: that's exactly something she might do as an Elim. Someone's going to suggest it, but if an Elim is the one, they can gain trust. It's not specifically something she's more likely to do as an Elim, so it doesn't indicate anything alignment-wise, but it also shouldn't really move her into your village list. I know because I've done that as an Elim, and I've seen her do it as an Elim I'm pretty sure. Beware the trap of good advice. Oh, and @STINK and @Straw, do we need to send you to your rooms? I doubt either of you is an Elim, or genuinely believes the other is, through thanks for generating some discussion. Speaking of discussion, one of those PMs I had was with Orlok, and combined with what was broken down here in the thread (was it Wilson who explained it really well? Lopen? Can't remember and can't be bothered to go check right now), I think it's likely he's telling the truth, and that it probably was a good decision. It's a very rare situation, though, and I'm worried we'll see a trend of roleclaims following it, because that doesn't work out well for the village. Everyone else keep your roles to yourself. I wish I had a vote ready now, but between the really confusing posts, lack of info, and just typical D1 stuff (plus my reduced focus on the games) I don't have anyone I'd vote on right now. We'll see if that changes.
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Nope. Seriously, though, I just don't have anything to really contribute yet. Analysis usually comes after there's not only been more posts, but also a lynch or a kill, though I'll try to put in a vote since I know that's usually important. I find your decision to claim as the Pauper Noble...odd. Generally I think roleclaims are a bad idea anyway, but neutral roles sometimes make sense. You're not neutral if you're telling the truth, though, at least not yet, and that's just always going to make you a likely target.
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Never entered my mind.
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Despite all the extra roles, for most of us I think this is going to be a fairly vanilla game in terms of gameplay and finding the Elims. Good chance to try and improve my analysis skills I guess. I can't really add to the suggestions other people made for the various roles, so I won't.
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Except it's then an IKYK situation by definition, and they could kill someone else just to get us suspicious. Any public discussion of who will scan or be scanned is probably too dangerous to be worthwhile, even with safeguards to keep the scanning roles themselves safe. Also, how are you expecting the results to be announced? There's no PMs, so no trusted contacts that could reveal things for you. It's a recipe for disaster. Having them choose who to scan on their own and when to come forward (if needed, if they can't just get the lynch going on that person without revealing themselves) is going to be much better.
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Oh, I forgot to include a relevant Adams quote last post: "I love deadlines. I like the whooshing sound they make as they fly by."
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QFs always catch me off guard because of how fast they move. Stinks to have lost a Firebrand, but they're a bit less important than a UIB Agent, so it's not too bad. Most D1 lynches hit villagers, unfortunately. Everyone please consider the strategies suggested last night. Use cytonics wisely but often, if not every time, if you don't have a role, and be careful who you target if you do have a role.
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I'm suspicious of any plan that leads to providing the Elims with clues to who has a role and what role, so I'm going to put down my vote on Yitzi. He's not the only one who suggested plans like that, but as BB pointed out, he's still pushing it despite the potential drawbacks. I also hate to see Ecth lynched D1 again. Save him until at least D2.
