Quick Fix 51: I Love Dragons

[Quintessential]

Just now, Illwei said:

ties

aren't

good

Quinn

Why aren't they good?

[Shard of Reading]

Just now, Illwei said:

ties

aren't

good

Quinn

Tell that to Alv.

[Ashbringer]

“... this is confusing.”

Edited March 3, 2021 by Ashbringer

[|TJ|]

@Quintessential

Quote

First of all, I didn't say I wasn't voting. I said I wasn't voting on Illwei, at that particular moment, because (insert my reasons here). It was in response to her asking me why I wasn't voting her. Second of all, you make it sound like it was a two-second turnaround or something, but there were two hours in between those posts in which I actually sat down and thought about this whole thing. I really honestly don't know what I think of Illwei rn but I don't read her village at all and I'm not sure why so many other people do? 

Yeah, that was a typo on my part, I missed to add "on Illwei". And I definitely read everything together and since you guys just reply quickly to each other when I'm on, I assumed you had indeed replied in quick succession as I don't check timestamps of each and every messages. It found it weird that two incidents happened a) you voted for Gears, Mat called you out for it, you retracted b. illwei asked why you weren't voting for her and you followed that up with a vote -  feels like every time someone confronts you about something you agree with them.

Quote

Mat trusts his gut all the time but tj reading reading village feels like its coming out of nowhere

No? I've been reading players as village on D1 based on how their posts feel? Like Reading in LG73. And Devotary in LG67 when I had to Squire very early in the game. These are most memorable/recent one but I have always given gut D1 village reads except for recent games when I was not that active in the first cycle. 

Quote

 On 3/2/2021 at 8:11 PM, TJ Shade said:

Also, I'm not really liking use of PoE to eliminate elimination candidates because it's a very easy way to remove your elim teammates from the pool by giving any reason. 

No

Then you ask them about it

Huh? Like what? Someone removes certain players from the list as dying early. And if one of them flips elim, what to ask them? "Why did you remove them from the PoE"? They'll obviously give the reason they initially gave.

15 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Yeah, actually I was thinking that. It seems like sort of an obvious thing to do, except that I for one didn't realize the entire tally would be revealed--I thought only the winner's vote count would be revealed. So if e!TJ and e!Reading voted on each other to seem less... idk even know what, they might have thought that it wouldn't really be noticed. But that's probably tinfoil XD

I definitely had read the rules as the entire tally would be revealed, hence the following statement:

Quote

Revealing whom you voted for after the reveal might also help narrow down the elims and prevent them from lying about their votes. 

And I really don't like the connection here, because it doesn't make sense for elim!me and elim!Reading to vote on each other first off, because that would have been so obvious. And second, elim!me and elim! Reading could have just claimed to have voted on ourselves because that would have been less suspicious to claim.

And I really do not see elim!Reading because elim!Reading would have voted on himself when he would have seen me say I'd vote for him.

I also have no idea why TUO voted for Quinn. I thought Quinn was fine because she voted on Dannex last cycle when she voted Dannex when she didn't have to and could have just let me to die, but this cycle's connection just doesn't make sense to me. Just calling everything as tinfoil doesn't sit right with me either. Looks like lots of vote hopping is going around. Most suspicious of Quinn, and I'd rather vote her out over Books but there;s no time. Flying books.

[Archer]

Cycle's over!

[Archer]

Cycle Three: Animosity 

“Alright, gather round, you lot. I’ve received a petition.”

“What’s it say?”

“It’s titled, and I’m not pulling your leg, A Proposal Regarding the Standardization of Comma Usage in Official Hunting Party Literature.”

“Sure sounds like someone recognizes the need for a common grammatical style guide!”

“Who said that? Hop, did you write this?”

“Wasn’t me. Didn’t they sign the page?”

“Oh yeah. I haven’t actually opened the envelope this thing came in. Just read the outside. Hey Faleast, open this up for me.”

“Sure thing. Let’s see. It’s from some group called Skip’s Grandma Club.”

“I didn’t know Skip had a grandma.”

“Everyone’s got a grandma. Was she that witch who used to cut them dragon stomachs open?”

“I always thought she was from the government.”

“Oh golly, that’s a lot of pages. You don’t need to read all that, Faleast. Faleast? What’s wrong with his face?”

“He’s got powdery stuff on him…”

“Don’t touch that letter! They’ve poisoned him with it. Now you Dragon Bait have gone to far. Run him through, Seba!”

“But I’m not aaaaargh!!”

“Good work. Dragons don’t seem to be coming to eat his body though.”

“Maybe he wasn’t one of them…”

“You might be right. Nice going, Seba. Really messed up there. Alright, who else might it be?”

***

Flyingbooks was exed! They were a member of the Hunting Party! The votes were as follows:

Flyingbooks (3): Matrim's Dice, Reading, TJ Shade
TJ Shade (2): Books, Ashbringer
Matrim's Dice (1): Gears
Quinn (1): Illwei

Hunting Party member Ashbringer was also killed, by those dastardly Dragon Bait! 

This cycle, the Hunting Party may choose another individual to try to bait the dragon with [Village Faction Kill] while the Dragon Bait crew may choose to kill someone as well [Eliminator Faction Kill]. The Crossbowman may also take a shot

PMs are closed. Ties will be decided randomly. Players who are inactive for an entire cycle will be replaced. Thanks for keeping it pretty active so far!

This cycle will last ~24 hours, until March 4th at 11am EST.

Spoiler

1. @Gears as Seba

2. @Matrim's Dice as pikS

3. @Quintessential as Jillian Glade

4. @Random Bystander as a random bystander

5. @Shard of Reading 

6. @The Unknown Order as Burt

7. Dannex was Notani N Quisitor, a Hunting Party Member

8. Ashbringer was Faleast, a Hunting Party Member

9. @Experience

10. Flyingbooks was Hop, a Hunting Party Member

11. @Illwei 

12. @TJ Shade

 

Edited March 3, 2021 by Archer

[---]

TJ Shade

[Mat]

I was going to ask how Books' flip impacts our thoughts on TJ and Reading, but I guess that answers my question :P. Books wasn't as much linked to TJ as Reading was anyway.

TJ Shade seems like a good plan here.

[---]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

TJ Shade seems like a good plan here.

You're next you know

[Random Bystander]

Why was that dialogue so disturbing? (Also, I'm sorry about not posting more than once yesterday. I have depression, and was struggling with it a lot more than usual yesterday. I might not be able to be as active on here today, either.)

[---]

Just now, Random Bystander said:

Also, I'm sorry about not posting more than once yesterday. I have depression, and was struggling with it a lot more than usual yesterday. I might not be able to be as active on here today, either.

<3

health comes first

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

You're next you know

...Why? Like, if TJ flips vil?

[---]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

...Why? Like, if TJ flips vil?

yes

[Gears]

Archer, how could you reveal my alignment in the writeup?

Reading/TJ team? I'm leaning towards that. Maybe we should X the Arbalist instead of TJ since the Arbalist can kill someone. Or we can ask Reading to 'prove' their innocence by killing TJ. I'd be amenable to killing either of those. 

Actually, wouldn't killing Reading be better since if they're village, then Matrim and TJ seem fine but if TJ flips vil, then we have to kill Matrim too? We can ask them to shoot TJ or someone as they die.

*ninjas lunge from the shadows, destroying five pots and a dozen bowls of soup*

I think we should vote Shard of Reading since their flip has bearing on two others. 

Have a test in five minutes, don't expect a prompt response for another 6 hours.

---

You wipe the blood off your sword with an oiled cloth, taking great care to keep the blade pristine. It gleams with a veneer of gold as you smile. Murder does wonders for stress levels.

[Mat]

5 minutes ago, Gears said:

Actually, wouldn't killing Reading be better since if they're village, then Matrim and TJ seem fine but if TJ flips vil, then we have to kill Matrim too? We can ask them to shoot TJ or someone as they die.

That makes sense? I think?

@Illwei what do you think about this

[---]

This is a lose-lose. If we vote to kill reading now, and they're elims with TJ, all they have to do is not kill TJ. Because they're dying anyways.

There's 9 of us and that's 6-3. if reading has the bow and is an Elim and we don't kill him then Elims win. okay. wait. I'm on board now. Wait. no I'm not. Wait. well putting this here for now.

TJ Shade

Reading

If reading is an Elim:

6-3, 4-2. ELo again but still another chance.

If reading isn't an Elim:

we could go 3-3 if he shoots a villager. we could go 4-2.

So basically

if we kill reading today and he's village, if he doesn't shoot an Elim then we're dead.

If we kill Reading today and he's an Elim then we have another cycle.

If we don't kill reading today and he's an Elim then we lose.

Vote is staying on Reading.

Will do some backreading later to try and find a person, but how does everyone feel about voting on who Reading shoots in orange?

EDIT:

9 minutes ago, Gears said:

I think we should vote Shard of Reading since their flip has bearing on two others. 

Okay actually read Gears' post and am not a fan of this. It's DEFINITELY ELo if reading is an Elim and so that should be the reasoning. not what this is.

Info kills this close to ELo is eek

Edited March 3, 2021 by Illwei

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Reading

I assume this is supposed to be red :P.

But this, yeah this makes sense. Reading.

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Will do some backreading later to try and find a person, but how does everyone feel about voting on who Reading shoots in orange?

I'm good with that.

[Quintessential]

I concur on both points, Illwei; TJ

Vote counts for C1 and C2 (purple = villager, since Archer doesn't want us using green for non-vote things)

TJ (2): Illwei, Ash
Dannex (4): Books, Matrim, Quinn, TJ

Books (3): Matrim, Reading, TJ
Matrim (1): Gears
TJ (2): Books, Ash
Quinn (1): Illwei

My reasoning is as follows: If Books and TJ were v/v, then why wouldn't the elims have preserved that tie between them? Ties between villagers create confusion, uncertainty, and if the tie-breaking vote isn't self-pres (as in this case it was, so I'm counting TJ's vote as NAI) then the village begins to suspect the tie-breaker once the loser flips village. 

As it is, they seem to have done nothing to ensure that that tie remained (obviously) since all of the votes on TJ were village. Admittedly, it's possible that TJ is village and his last-minute vote caught them off-guard, but that's not my only reason for him. He was also one of two not-confirmed people on Dannex, a train which I don't see including no elims since a third of the people in the game are on it. It could, but I don't think it's likely.

(Matrim would be next if TJ flips vil, for having been on all three misexe trains to that point, and being the only not-confirmed on Dannex. If TJ flips elim, Matrim would return to a comfortable mild village in my eyes, though of course my tinfoil brain would still be informing me that it was a bus)

Edit: Oh wait I was ninja'd by a bunch of people how did that happen. Hold on, lemme catch up real quick  

Edit: Could somebody post so I don't have to double-post? pls and thx lol

Edited March 3, 2021 by Quintessential

[Mat]

9 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Edit: Could somebody post so I don't have to double-post? pls and thx lol

Fun fact: If someone posts only to stop a double, that not only defeats the purpose of not double posting (the purpose being to save thread space), it actually causes more thread space that didn't need to be there  

I won't do that, because comment!:

10 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

My reasoning is as follows: If Books and TJ were v/v, then why wouldn't the elims have preserved that tie between them? Ties between villagers create confusion, uncertainty, and if the tie-breaking vote isn't self-pres (as in this case it was, so I'm counting TJ's vote as NAI) then the village begins to suspect the tie-breaker once the loser flips village. 

Note to self: Remember this later. Quinn tried very hard to keep the tie.

[---]

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Note to self: Remember this later. Quinn tried very hard to keep the tie.

LMAO

EDIT:

TJ (2): Illwei, Ash
Dannex (4): Books, Matrim, Quinn, TJ

Books (3): Matrim, Reading, TJ
Matrim (1): Gears
TJ (2): Books, Ash
Quinn (1): Illwei

Here's what i see

@Shard of Reading Quinn is Evil. Shoot her today.

She agreed with me that TJ/Reading was evil yesterday, and then "left it to a tie" with books when TJ wasn't voting on books, easily allowing him to self pres. It's Tj/Quinn/Maybe Reading. Reading is irrelevant rn.

Hm.

This relies on TJ being evil though, doesn't it? so actually Quinn TJ Shade

Edited March 3, 2021 by Illwei

[Quintessential]

29 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Note to self: Remember this later. Quinn tried very hard to keep the tie.

 yes precisely because I wanted to see what happened. This is what happened. I'm now analyzing it. 

Just... you're missing the point of my post, I think. I'm not trying to convince more people to vote for TJ there, obviously, since when I started writing it I thought TJ had three votes on him already and my notifs were broken apparently so I didn't see the new posts. The point of that post, and basically any post I make where I blatantly assume myself to be vil for the purposes of analysis, is to explain my thought process. I, knowing I'm vil, know that there weren't any elims trying to preserve the tie. I'm suspicious as to why. Therefore I vote the tied member that hasn't flipped vil.

Also, voting Reading off is actually not a good idea and here's why:

Right now, we're presumably at 6-3 (elims-villagers) (edit: villagers-elims, obviously : P)

If we exe Reading and he's village, then next cycle we'll be at 4-3, which is XLo. 

If we exe Reading and he's elim, then next cycle we'll be at 5-2 and we have another cycle. Great, right? Wrong, because if Reading is elim and sees he's gonna die, he'll shoot someone this cycle. So if Reading's elim and we exe him, we'll be at 4-2 next cycle, which is also XLo.

Now, there are obviously a couple of other ways this could go:

• Reading is village, and shoots someone with the Crossbow as he dies.
  • If the person Reading shoots is elim, then next cycle we're at 4-2, which is still XLo
  • If the person Reading shoots somehow ends up being a villager, but the same villager that the elim-kill targets, we're at 4-3, which is still XLo
  • If the person Reading shoots is a different villager, the village loses the game.
• Reading is elim -- we've already covered this. Unless elim!Reading feels like gamethrowing, which I find unlikely, we'll be at XLo next cycle because he'll shoot a villager.
• We choose not to exe Reading. In this case, there are three different variables: Reading's alignment, the alignment of the person we exe, and the alignment of the person he kills, if anyone.
  • Reading is village and we exe a villager (XLo no matter what):
    • 4-3 if Reading shoots no one or the elim kill
    • 4-2 if Reading shoots an elim
    • 3-3 (loss) if Reading shoots a villager.
  • Reading is village and we exe an elim (prevents XLo if Reading doesn't shoot or shoots an elim):
    • 5-2 if Reading shoots no one or shoots the elim kill
    • 5-1 if Reading shoots an elim
    • 4-2 if Reading shoots a villager.
  • Reading is elim and we exe a villager (automatic loss):
    • Reading will always shoot a villager in this case, leading it to be 3-3, or an automatic loss.
  • Reading is elim and we exe an elim:
    • If Reading shoots in this case, it's 4-2 but that's fine because village!Reading would have no reason to shoot at all, so we'd know he's elim.
    • Therefore, he won't shoot. This will leave us with 5-2, which is currently our best case scenario for next cycle.

Obviously, our best course of action right now is to exe an elim. But more specifically, our best course of action to exe an elim who isn't Reading. We request that Reading not shoot anyone today. If he's village that will guarantee that the game continues at least next cycle, regardless of whom we exe. If he's elim, then exeing a villager would lead to an automatic loss (he'd shoot, knowing it would end the game). Exeing an elim would force him to withhold, though, so we'd end up with 5-2 next cycle which is the best reasonable scenario that we can expect to occur. If we exe an elim and he shoots, we know he's an elim, which is even better.

(also, note that if Reading is village and we leave him alive, that decreases the number of people that the elims have to choose from for their kill)

Edited March 3, 2021 by Quintessential

[|TJ|]

First off, I didn't sit on my vote last cycle to ensure not to tie, I was thinking about it because Illwei gave me that idea in LG73, but I literally finished redding the vote after the time touched :29. I was blue that if that's allowed/needed. @Archer

Second, I really don't see why elim!Reading would have voted on me and not on himself when he saw I was voting for him? Perhaps if he knew beforehand that Matrim was gonna vote on him? But I really don't see that. The optimal move for elim!Reading would have been to vote on himself.

Quinn was the one who made the connections between me and Reading and convenient called it tinfoil and kept her vote. And then moved it around to cause a tie, which in her own words she used to throw suspicion on me. Prefer Quinn's elimination over Reading's because of stuff said in last post and this one.

27 minutes ago, Illwei said:

She agreed with me that TJ/Reading was evil yesterday, and then "left it to a tie" with books when TJ wasn't voting on books, easily allowing him to self pres. It's Tj/Quinn/Maybe Reading. Reading is irrelevant rn.

Hm.

This relies on TJ being evil though, doesn't it? so actually Quinn TJ Shade

It doesn't make sense? The only reason she would keep a tie if it was v/v? The only reason she would take your speculation (me/reading team) and run with it is if I'm village. And that tinfoil she cooked had lot of holes like I mentioned it in the last post.

[Mat]

@Quintessential if there's a possibility of an automatic loss, such as leaving elim!Reading alive and exeing a villager, I do not want to take it. Any chance of an automatic loss is too much of a risk for me- by killing Reading, it clears up a whole lot and the possibility it might be exlo won't be as daunting anymore because our PoE would have shrunk considerably. I'd rather be at exlo with considerably more info and a good idea of what happened than not, with less info, and the possibility of an automatic loss.

2 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Perhaps if he knew beforehand that Matrim was gonna vote on him?

I did kind of heavily imply I was voting Reading, so that's possible.

[Archer]

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

First off, I didn't sit on my vote last cycle to ensure not to tie, I was thinking about it because Illwei gave me that idea in LG73, but I literally finished redding the vote after the time touched :29. I was blue that if that's allowed/needed. @Archer

I'm not entirely sure what you're talking about, but when I posted cycle's end, your post had your vote in it, so I counted it. 

Also, thanks for purpling, Quinn. And let me know, Random Bystander, if there's anything I can do to help. 

Current Vote Count:
TJ: Quinn
Quinn: TJ
Reading (3): Gears, Illwei, Matrim's Dice

[---]

3 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

elims-villagers

first slip. putting Elims first.

4 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

If we exe Reading and he's elim, then next cycle we'll be at 5-2 and we have another cycle. Great, right? Wrong, because if Reading is elim and sees he's gonna die, he'll shoot someone this cycle. So if Reading's elim and we exe him, we'll be at 4-2 next cycle, which is also XLo.

this was the whole point. Yes we're going to be at ELo again, but we're at ELo now if Reading is an Elim. We can't afford to let him live. We could have if he shot yesterday like was asked, but he didn't.

Notice how he hasn't really posted anything more as well? He was read village on D1 for zero reason, and then does this? hm?

6 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Reading is village, and shoots someone with the Crossbow as he dies.

• If the person Reading shoots is elim, then next cycle we're at 4-2, which is still XLo
• If the person Reading shoots somehow ends up being a villager, but the same villager that the elim-kill targets, we're at 4-3, which is still XLo
• If the person Reading shoots is a different villager, the village loses the game.

The two likely ones are 1 and 3, since we're going to be voting on who reading kills. and before anyone gets mad at me for saying this because "he got the role it's not ours to use"... just don't. :P.

Now keep those two options in mind.

9 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Reading is village and we exe an elim (prevents XLo if Reading doesn't shoot or shoots an elim):

• 5-2 if Reading shoots no one or shoots the elim kill
• 5-1 if Reading shoots an elim
• 4-2 if Reading shoots a villager.

This whole scenario involves us finding an Elim. If we can find and vote on an Elim, then that's who Reading would be shooting if he's village. Yes if reading is village that's bad for us but it's worse for us if reading is an Elim.

10 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Reading is elim and we exe a villager (automatic loss):

• Reading will always shoot a villager in this case, leading it to be 3-3, or an automatic loss.

I was going to quote this one last....because, but I didn't.

Notice how this is the only one that is an automatic loss.

The others have good options. But if we don't kill Reading. and he is an Elim. then we lose. there is no coming back from that.

So either we

 - Kill reading today, vote on reading to kill our highest suspicion, and then hopefully continue to ELo
 - Kill Someone else today, and potentially straight up lose.

Reading is the plan B. the plan B that if our suspicion is wrong, we might hit another Elim.