Long Game 74: You Want It Darker

[Ashbringer he/him]

My power’s out and I’m not making a big analysis post on Mobile -.-

Well, we need to vote out someone, and I’m with Burnt on Maill (although I don’t particularly trust Burnt either).

Araris, what’s your reasoning on Stick?

[Illwei]

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Finding the most trusted player isn’t quite as helpful for the exe as finding the least 

I'm not looking for the most trusted player :P. I'm looking for the least trusted, which may be different than the "most suspicious" :P. who knows

But if everyone did give their top village reads that would be nice. I realize I asked this too late, sigh.

Edited March 13, 2021 by Illwei
agh blank lines

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Not a ton of time, but probably Stick, Burnt, Elandera 

[Elandera she/her]

6 hours ago, Illwei said:

Anyone wanna join me in naming their top three trusts? 

Top three trusts does not equate to least trusted.

I'm going with how I interpreted the first question.

Fifth, STINK, and TJ. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

Please don’t make 11:30 Derrick decide this. We don’t have enough people posting to find a new lead. And right now the Elims could hammer this exe without breaking a sweat. Perhaps even without breaking their vote manip threshold.

So what’ll it be? Belatedly exe Maill as per Mat’s last wishes? Look for a target among the actives like Araris, Devotary, Stick? Contribution Crusade one of us that faded to the shadows like Reading, Dannex, TWS?

[Illwei]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Dannex

that awkward moment when Danex pops up and says that they can be active and then immediately disappears

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Still not going to be around much tonight but in hopes of an actual exe, TJ. And I’ll go Devotary. 

[Elandera she/her]

Anyone able to do a vote count? I'm on mobile and that's complicated

EDIT:

Finally got the WiFi password, so I'll do the vote count.

Stick (1) - Araris
Maill (1) - Illwei
Devotary (2) - Stick, Maill
Araris (1) - TJ
Ash (1) - STINK

Edited March 13, 2021 by Elandera

[|TJ| he/him]

11 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Anyone able to do a vote count? I'm on mobile and that's complicated

Stick (1)	Araris
Mailliw (1)	Illwei
Devotary (2)	Stick	Mailliw
Araris (1)	TJ
Ashbringer (1)	STINK

Copied from the spreadsheet so, uhh don't mind the boxes. 

@Ashbringer, take these as my top 3 suspects excluding you cause your alignment depends on Sticks. 

On 3/11/2021 at 11:53 PM, TJ Shade said:

Maill, Araris, Ash, Devotary + n (not Stick, Illwei and Reading) - current team guess

@Fifth Scholar, you got anything to say to this? Especially to the "what contribution from TWS did you like" part. I still feel like your post was maliciously constructed to paint me in bad light cause there was a lot of false info in that accusation.

---

I wanted to shift to Devotary, but now Maill is voting for her now...so now I'm confused. I'd be willing to vote for Araris, Maill and Devo this cycle. 

@Devotary of Spontaneity, any reason why you did not vote in the last cycle?

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

On 3/11/2021 at 0:24 PM, Mailliw73 said:

Well I’ll start. Maill. 

Jk just figured I should be the first to vote on myself before you do. Maill.

I’ll start on TJ. 

Hey! Someone agrees with me on something this game!  (oh wait it's the person I've trusted for four cycles straight why do I feel like I'm going to wake up tomorrow having been pocketed to the moon and back by Maill and Stick)

On 3/11/2021 at 0:27 PM, Burnt Spaghetti said:

You know. 

It is nice to have a night cycle where only one villager dies.

Hey, I'm missing the Coinshot, mostly because a hit on Devo or one of the lower-actives last night probably would have helped clarify discussion a bit. Say what you will about Bip's accuracy but she did take away some black holes of discussion so that we could let Maill become a black hole instead >>

On 3/11/2021 at 0:45 PM, Araris Valerian said:

My greatest suspicion is currently Stick. I'll post explanation later when I have more time.

Maybe I'm blind but do you have that explanation? You've returned to the thread to make jibes and such but haven't actually elaborated on your suspicions  

On 3/11/2021 at 0:46 PM, Illwei said:

Maill

back on this, am I?

why yes

On 3/11/2021 at 0:48 PM, _Stick_ said:

This is very rude  I asked to be NK'd before Mat did, yet they get their wish and I don't? 

 Devotary

Refer to my earlier post as to why devo isnt giving me village vibes, and also PoE agrees 

Edit: I'm doing this so that the thread doesnt just die - at this point I'm okay with exe'ing Maill and I can switch my vote to him later if need be. I am also okay with exe'ing Burnt but between the two I'd prefer Maill because I think elim!Maill means elim!Burnt but elim!Burnt doesnt necessary mean elim!Maill

ed2t: quacc

Unless the elims have a Coinshot they inexplicably haven't been using, it'd be hard to grant both wishes at once  

It's too late for a pure info Maill exe, I think - as Illwei rightly points out later, we might be at ShrekLo depending on how many eliminators there are and how much vote manipulation they have. I'm not dead confident in Maill's alignment after the weird way this cycle's shrek has developed, but... I'm not gonna be killing him when there are so many other people I suspect up for the shrek.

Also, quacc

On 3/11/2021 at 1:23 PM, TJ Shade said:

@Mailliw73 Mat was like the only player who village read me. Why would I let the elims kill him if I was one of them? Why are you voting for me? And why do you prefer me over Devotary? Cause I remember you grouping us together?

I'm actually worried most of the active players are elims seeing as how they're easily saving Maill cycle after cycle despite us clearly wanting his flip to have a better understanding of the game. Why is he village, other than meta reasons?

@Ashbringer, why did you shift to Gears last cycle?

@Araris Valerian what are your thoughts on Maill? I don't think you've mentioned it. You just said an uncontested elimination on Maill would be bad and it became very much contested. 

Araris Valerian

Maill, Araris, Ash, Devotary + n (not Stick, Illwei and Reading) - current team guess

Edit: I'm on my phone, I don't know why that didn't @Araris Valerian oh look now it's @ing

I guess my rebuttal to the question is why is he evil, other than meta reasons (yes yes this is facetious, I get there are voting pattern / malicious framing points against him, I just don't find them convincing enough to have naturally received the level of condemnation he has this game unless his shrek was being pushed by the elims or the meta had changed between the time he played before and now so that behaviours which I find normal from him - phishing, role-trading, PMing, gambiting and lying to try to tease information and suspicions out of people - are now regarded as suspect). 

10 hours ago, Condensation said:

Why are people suspicious of me? Tani literally claimed Village Mistborn, and I assume she found some way to prove it. 

I think this has been addressed, but I would like to reiterate that roles don't prove anything about alignment  My assumption when the XP kill was first announced was that an elim Mistborn had done it, and even though the subsequent info on Fallion's Four came out, I'm still uneasy about you, especially given that the other targets being considered by your group at the time (Illwei, Maill) I've tentatively chosen to trust for now, meaning that I'm about 70% sure that all of your kill target possibilities were village  

6 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Finding the most trusted player isn’t quite as helpful for the exe as finding the least 

But I’d say TJ, Elandera, Devotary imo.

these are my two top suspicions plus a player I'm side-eyeing

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Please don’t make 11:30 Derrick decide this. We don’t have enough people posting to find a new lead. And right now the Elims could hammer this exe without breaking a sweat. Perhaps even without breaking their vote manip threshold.

So what’ll it be? Belatedly exe Maill as per Mat’s last wishes? Look for a target among the actives like Araris, Devotary, Stick? Contribution Crusade one of us that faded to the shadows like Reading, Dannex, TWS?

I will agree that we need more votes, sorry to have been unhelpful in this regard >> I'll go TJ and will explain when I try to quote the previous day's stuff

17 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Still not going to be around much tonight but in hopes of an actual exe, TJ. And I’ll go Devotary. 

I'm fine with either of these, I guess, but would prefer TJ; any chance of you switching back?  

(TJ, Elandera, I see you've made your posts, but I don't want to lose this one, so they're getting addressed next multiquote )

[Illwei]

2 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

(Illwei, Maill) I've tentatively chosen to trust for now

dude you were ready to lead the mob against me pitchforks ablazing or however that saying goes what gives

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Just now, Illwei said:

dude you were ready to lead the mob against me pitchforks ablazing or however that saying goes what gives

My mob-leading skills have been off this game, as well as my skills in general, it seems. Though if you're going to complain about it I'm happy to start the wagon back up on you. I just don't think it's terribly productive right now.  

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

53 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I wanted to shift to Devotary, but now Maill is voting for her now...so now I'm confused. I'd be willing to vote for Araris, Maill and Devo this cycle.

[Devotary] any reason why you did not vote in the last cycle?

Maill voted for me last cycle for having voted late on trains along with people who aren't dead yet. I assume he's still following that reasoning even though only my D3 vote had actual significance.

I missed rollover last cycle but I'll make sure not to miss it this cycle. I'd be willing to vote for any of Stink/Maill|Stick I think even though I'm worried about the split around Maill's alignment. Burnt has helped me realise that her name being signed at the end of the first tineye message does not mean that she's the tineye who sent it, which does open up e/e Maill/Burnt again.

Fifth seems to have roughly the same suspicions as Maill but different reasonings. @Fifth Scholar, why did confusion over my posts turn into suspicion? I would also like to see your response to TJ's post from C4.

[Elandera she/her]

TJ because I'm going to bed and won't be awake in time for rollover, and of all the arguments I've seen, this makes more sense.

[|TJ| he/him]

12 minutes ago, Elandera said:

TJ because I'm going to bed and won't be awake in time for rollover, and of all the arguments I've seen, this makes more sense.

???? What arguments?

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Maill voted for me last cycle for having voted late on trains along with people who aren't dead yet. I assume he's still following that reasoning even though only my D3 vote had actual significance.

I missed rollover last cycle but I'll make sure not to miss it this cycle. I'd be willing to vote for any of Stink/Maill|Stick I think even though I'm worried about the split around Maill's alignment. Burnt has helped me realise that her name being signed at the end of the first tineye message does not mean that she's the tineye who sent it, which does open up e/e Maill/Burnt again.

Fifth seems to have roughly the same suspicions as Maill but different reasonings. @Fifth Scholar, why did confusion over my posts turn into suspicion? I would also like to see your response to TJ's post from C4.

Lack of better options, really (as to why you're being suspected). I'm getting a general sense that you're beginning with a set of conclusions with your posts and working your logic backwards to reach them rather than vice versa, which is the only way I have of telling evil!Devotary from her village counterpart, and even if I can't explain it well I'm still suspicious there  As for TJ, I'm trying to put together a response, but it's also 2 AM, so  it's not going to be a reasonable one and will likely not make him happy. Then again a three-hour masterpiece probably wouldn't make him happy either because I'm accusing him.  

ok so I actually put it together this is the last thing I am doing before bed  

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this is not correct. I was firmly suspicious of Striker TILL he made that sudden jump of strong elim reading me for (I feel I'm repeating things -.-) LG67 Ventyl stuff in D2. Not sure where you got that ambiguity stuff. If there was any, it was only because I was making comments post-by-post and noticed some were villagery but overall I still read him as elim till that point.

I was talking D1 between Striker/Books, where you had the firm suspicion but then had some statements in there which made it seem like you were leaving room for yourself to back off if you needed. I had them quoted but then, you know, the text editor (which has eaten no fewer than three of my posts this game >>). I'm not condemning you for introducing complexity, but rather for doing so in a way that seemed designed to let you back off. 

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again, this is false? Stick was one of my village reads in the first cycle. "Hedged a lot" is definitely a wrong narrative here.

You qualified that read heavily, iirc, but given it was D1 I suppose this isn't a huge point against you. It's just something I noticed.

Quote

...Did you selectively read my posts? -.- Everyone is disregarding my Books vote reason.

I read the reasoning and was not very much convinced by it, so no, I was not disregarding it  I think it doesn't justify the inconsistency between your stated suspicion of Striker and where the vote actually ended up: it basically says you voted because you always do, but offers little explanation as to why it was on Books and not Striker, given you had condemned the latter far more heavily and had the chance to narrow the gap rather than widening it.

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I didn't defend Dannex, I stated he's getting eliminated often when he's not around recently, so that would have happened again. I have forgotten his posts entirely and will need to look at them again.

Given his lack of content I'd say this is basically a defence  

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What contributions? Post #1 is a vote without reasoning on Striker, Post #2 is a BRB and Post #3 is a vote without reasoning on Maill. What did you like about them?

Mostly that he was actually voting, which is something most of the semi- and inactives aren't bothering with. I will admit that I thought he had more content than he actually did, though, so you're right to call me out on that; I don't know why I'd made him out to be more active in my head, but it wasn't justified. I blame anger at losing my multiquote  

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There was a clear move at the end of the last cycle to save Maill, imo. It was 5-2 at one point, I think? I really didn't see a reason to shift to Quinn, and it looks suspiciously as an attempt to save Maill. And his consistent argument to prop me up for elimination for voting last (again not taking why into context) doesn't help me change my opinion about him either. You argue that it was v/v in D2 too, but 9-5 is vastly different for 6-5. I still maintain my elim read on Gears so I'm confused by this cycle's proceedings. It could be a plot to create a tie so both of them aren't eliminated, but I'm not sure. e/e trains usually allows the other train to get village cred.

Thank you for explaining this, even if I have stated my disagreement with most of it already.  I just found the unexplained jump on Maill curious since you'd previously built an actual case against Gears, and none of all that had explicitly been mentioned by you when you cast your vote.

I'll admit that the stuff I pointed out mostly seems small and that I don't have great reason to vote on you. But given that we have no elim flips, a semiactive playerbase (including myself at times, sadly) and a lot of unexplained votes flying around, I don't have great reason to vote on anyone. I have a few people I still trust, or want to trust, some people I distrust but can't build a case against because they've said mostly nothing, and some people I distrust and nobody else seems to think is evil (Connie and SoR). You're my most active suspicion besides maybe Devotary, but given that you two are clearly not on a team together I'm going with my gut, and the best analysis I have, and given that I ran into more problems with your ISO than hers, or those of Burnt/Gears/Illwei that I did last cycle, this is where I am, and given that it's now 2:43 AM, this is where I will stay. For my part I'm sorry I couldn't build the argument against you that you probably deserve  

Also, GOOD NIGHT everyone >>

[Ashbringer he/him]

Derrick was on the march.

For one thing, it turned out that the Steel Crow was not as condemned as he'd originally seen. He wasn't sure how he missed the fact the roof was falling was overlookable by the village's health inspector, but Derrick figured that the health inspector probably needed more of a drink than anyone else. If they were still alive.

Hmm. Would it be Arenta's department? He wasn't sure if Sara owned the land outright. Likely she could afford it, even without any nightly acts of heroism.

Derrick.

Focus.

Derrick marched down to town square. With, what, sixteen people left in the village who actually cared - and even that was likely too generous - someone had to speak. Someone had to... do... something. The sun had almost set. They had to find a Spiked today. And Derrick refused to stand by the sidelines anymore. Or, rather, Derrick was too tired to care what Derrick did. If he failed... killed another innocent or mostly-innocent like Roko... well, it wouldn't be any worse than what would happen if he stayed in the shadows and did nothing.

Well, the likelihood of his death may increase dramatically. But that wasn't much of a setback, now, wasn't it.

He grabbed a stool leaning on the side of a building. Was it Philico's? He wasn't sure. It didn't really matter.

"People of Fallion's Tears!" Derrick shouted. He didn't really care who was listening. He'd stopped caring a long time ago. But this was town square. Someone would hear. Someone.

"This is, likely, our last chance. The koloss are coming, our much-sought-for Seeker is long dead, and if we flee while the Spiked ones are in our midst we're all done for. Or, most of us. Depends on your relative Mistborn-ness. But, save for Daux here, and perhaps a few others, we are going to die if we don't act. That means we need to be as united as we can. As united as can be in this situation."

He gave an internal sigh, and disabled his eyes. He didn't know if anyone was watching. If anyone was listening. Derrick also really didn't want to know.

"I don't know why you would trust me. I'm not asking you to. I have a reputation to maintain, you see. But if we decide to sit still, wait for night to fall and another of us to turn up with a knife in our back, then we throw away any chance of survival. If there are seven Spiked in this town. Hypothetically. But no matter. If we let lethargy get to us, our town will fall. Whether today, tomorrow, or when the mist chokes the life out of the plants the koloss haven't trampled." Was that saying too much? It hardly mattered.

"My personal suspicions are mostly due to taking various ramblings out of context. But upon reflection, this is a bad way to do so. I personally believe Arenta to be more suspect. She may not be evicting Smokers and returning their security deposits at very high speeds, but of the current choices Arenta has interacted with the most of us and feels more suspicious than the other chosen ones to me. But I'm open to other ideas. Whatever the group comes together with."

"There are sixteen of us. The Sacred Number. I would say this is meaning, but unfortunately the only meaning can come from sixteen becoming fifteen. So... it's been an Honor."

He turned his vision back on. There wasn't sixteen people watching, but there were enough. Hopefully word would get around before nightfall.

 

"Now," Derrick said, smiling as he let himself fall back to... Derrick. "this will be our last evening together, so this will be our last meal. I can cook up some waffles..."

 

 

Friendly reminder that voting "TJ" is very hard to see, and that voting "TJ Shade" is preferred by 4/5 GMs.

Araris Valerian as I feel worse about him than TJ or somewhat Devotary. I'll try to be up by rollover. If I am, I'll move to whoever has the most votes, with all likelihood. 

If not... see you in Luthadel.

[STINK he/him]

So how we doing fellow europeans and aussies

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

46 minutes ago, STINK said:

So how we doing fellow europeans and aussies

Tiredly

[STINK he/him]

At least you're tired at the right time to be tired?  

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

3 minutes ago, STINK said:

At least you're tired at the right time to be tired?  

This is true. It is approaching bedtimes. But I have things to doooo..... And I ran out of snacks

[STINK he/him]

One can always get more snacks when they do the things they need to have done

That's my thought process rn anyway for lunch

[Stick. she/her]

tfw araris dipped without ever explaining his vote ;_;

I think we're at a tie now

[Elandera she/her]

Well, I'm awake when I don't want to be.

6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

???? What arguments?

I went back to try to find it and I can't. I think I was mistaken. Not surprising after my day. 

TJ

Devotary

We don't need to go into this on a tie, and between Araris and Devotary, I think I trust Araris more.

[Haelbarde he/him]

I'm going to put a vote down on Araris I think. Full disclosure, I've not read through the backlog (why are there 47 pages D:) so I'm basing it on what I've seen since I subbed in. The situation seems like we've gone 5 days with no suspicions that have gone anywhere, and as Araris said last cycle:

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That suggests that they haven't felt too threatened by anyone in the thread having a lot of village cred. So the elims are likely either comfortable with how the discussion in thread has been going, or they have enough players actively engaged in it that they feel like they can control it on their own. Either way, the focus on less active players makes me think we need to broaden our suspicions.

Chances are the elims are those that have felt comfortable with their position/presence in thread. Elims are much less likely to put their neck out on hard on a tunnel too. And so when I think of who might best fit that sorta mood, well, that's Araris' MO, which seems to hold true here.

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Vote Tally
Mail(1): Mail{1}, Illwei{1}
TJ(1): Mail{2}, Fifth{1}, Elandera{1}
Stick(1): Araris{1}
Devotary(3): Stick{1}, Mail{3}, Elandera{2}
Araris(3): TJ{1}, Ash{1}, Hael{1}

Devotary(3): Stick, Mail, Elandera
Araris(3): TJ, Ash, Hael
Mail(1): Illwei
Stick(1): Araris