Long Game 74: You Want It Darker

[Stick.]

4 hours ago, Gears said:

A quick response to the "we decided in PMs that we wanted to X this person" thing: I'm staunchly opposed. You've co-opted the public murder and made it your own, with the black box of PM reasons standing between us and understanding. If you took advantage of the village's indecision and voted as a bloc to kill whomever you wanted, you'd have the votes. You are cutting people out of the only public thing we have on the basis of the fickle foe we call trust. You are intentionally excluding people to make your decisions. The point of the X is that everyone has a part, and you subvert this to further your own ends. You tarnish the spirit of the X as a tool for public discussion and murder. While this instance has been relatively harmless since the group promptly outed themselves and only killed the person who was mostly leading the X already, this sets a precedent for PM trust circles cutting off access to the X. I believe there was mention of the problem of most of discussion happening in PM circles in the AG, but this takes that problem to a new level. Claims? Scan results? Discussion of such things? Fine, keep those in PMs, share if you find anything notable, I still might feel miffed. But cut people out of the X? Of the one thing that everyone should have access to? I believe I've mentioned my distaste for 'PM reasons' before. As a person who is rarely on the inside of trust circles, I would not enjoy a world in which trust determines who is allowed to have an influence on the X. 

I’d like to reiterate that we didn’t mean to exclude anyone - you have to keep in mind that the PM wasn’t a tight trust group thing, each of us was suspicious of one another other too. So this little interaction (for me at least) was to serve as a way for me to get a proper read on these three players. The way elims react to things in group PMs with a bunch of people they think trust them completely is different to how an elim reacts to things publicly, in-thread. If we had gone through with the Illwei kill, that would’ve been achieved. As it stands, though, I’m village reading both Tani and Quinn because of how they reacted to their suspicions of Maill (i.e. changing the kill, telling illwei/Mat, changing the kill again, etc). Maill I was never so sure about, and while I refrained from actively doing something about it since I wanted to wait for illwei’s flip first, I did suspect Maill to some extent - ask @Biplet for confirmation on this. I see that everyone’s main problem is with the Striker exe (btw, no one told me we weren’t using the term lynch anymore!  I just happened to be going through the AG thread and stumbled upon this in the rules) - and fair, the way Quinn put it does look like we decided on a target and then it just happened. But I’ll remind you that I did try to lead an exe on Ash (still suspicious of them btw), and it didn’t really take off, but that was my main opinion for the exe. Paraphrasing from the PM group, the reason we believed Striker would be a good exe was because it would serve as a good info exe, given that there was so much suspicion and votes on him already. In my vote post I explained this exact reason - so there isn’t much we held off from the public/the thread? As far as the exe goes we put our reasonings out there, so it’s just our roles/our nightly actions that we didn’t reveal to the thread.

4 hours ago, Illwei said:

Oh that reminds me that I wanted to ask @_Stick_ What her case on me was.

5 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

I’ll admit I didn’t have much of a case xD I mostly just voted on you to get info on Maill. Although a thing that I am curious about is why you revealed the fact that you knew of our plan to kill you to Maill and Quinn? Did Tani not tell you that she had Changed the target to Maill? And if she had told you, would you still have revealed it to Quinn?

 Also @Araris Valerian I was wondering if you could explain your vote on Ash last cycle? Now that Striker’s dead and cleared, could you explain your reasoning?  (I imagine Striker had something to do with it because you mentioned something about PMs with him being a reason for that vote). 
 

Here’s a possible elim list according to me:

Gears 

Ash/TJ

Devo

Illwei/Maill

Windrunner

Burnt 

Daisy

I don’t think Ash/TJ or Illwei/Maill are e/e, which is why they’re written that way. 

edit: sometime soon I’ll write a post outlining a proper case against Illwei/ or maybe some other target if I come to realise I don’t want Illwei dead after all

Edited March 6, 2021 by _Stick_

[STINK]

You know I'm honestly not feeling any of these votes probably since this 4 person PM group thing sprung up but I guess maybe today I can go through D2 because D1 doesnt matter and look at things and see who just aint looking that hot idk Im incredibly tempted to vote from one of the four

Like I can see a case for the mistborn being evil and just shooting a villager but being new and confused so its ok etc etc

Idk

[Quintessential]

Cool ok so there goes my motivation to actually do any analysis... both because most of what I was going to say has more or less been said already, and because what little I might have to say that's new is taking/would take way too long to compose, and because it'll probably just get drowned in this whole discussion anyway. So why bother. 

My group-PM-mates are currently attempting to downplay the thing with Striker. Which is like... I'm not gonna do that. Cuz exeing him was my idea, at the end of the day, and Maill is right that he was on Striker already but the other three of us weren't, and for all that I could point out that it wasn't just us that voted him and that given the individual choice between Pyro and Striker, I'd have voted Striker, that's missing the point. We, as a group that (at the time) relatively trusted each other and mostly worked together, decided to orchestrate the exe of someone that, in all honesty, we suspected was probably village, but none of us wanted to go through and do the analysis to figure his alignment out one way or the other so we decided to just kill him. 

And that definitely wasn't fair to Striker, and I am really really sorry that I suggested it. At the time, it didn't feel like we were doing anything wrong but in retrospect it definitely was, and now I'm kicking myself for not figuring that out in the moment because I was definitely one of the people opposed to the power trust-circle thing in the AG. Having a small group of powerful roles decide everyone's fate isn't really the point of mafia, in my opinion. So yeah. I'm sorry. For whatever that's worth.

I'm gonna go make myself some coffee now : P

[Elandera]

Who do they think they are? Inquisitors with those steel eyes? Not eyes. Eyes of metal.

Metal I want to taste. But not from their eyes. Gross.

Still so much chatter. All the chatter. People bustle about worrying about all those misties jumping and killing.

Just mind your business and live. That's my plan. Always my plan. Just give the misties their metals and let them work it out. Yes.

Misties needed lots of steel. Much steel.

Not inquisitor steel. Just simple edible steel.

Cancel the order for iron. I miss the iron. Simple iron. Good for the tasting. Mix it with the carbon and get more steel. Why so many steely misties. Or is it stealy misties?

Where did the steel go?

---

[OOC: I'm back and slowly working through what's happened in the last few days.

First thought: @Fifth Scholar, your meme is pretty much exactly how I feel.

Second thought: Regarding this turn, see image in spoiler.

Spoiler

I'm going to use what time I can today to go through the entire thread and start formulating reads, but that's going to be a long process. So for now, gut reads.

@Tani: I'm suspicious. It might just be my general dislike of claiming important roles, but I really don't like how open they are about claiming Mistborn of all things after a single errant kill. This could easily be a villager thing, but it almost seemed they were worried that because several people knew about the kill, if they didn't claim, the'd be discovered anyways and exe'd for suspicion of being elim. I absolutely don't think we can trust Tani to be village just because she seemed a little guilty about killing a villager. However, I'm not quite willing yet to exe her just because of what I consider a bad claim. I wouldn't argue with some scans and such.

Regarding the whole PM group, it's not inherently bad to have group PMs where you share suspicions or even roleclaim. What happened, though, reeks too much of mayoring to be comfortable. What's worse is that it's semi-mayoring without the village confirmation. Still, we shouldn't exe the whole group just because of what happened. There's no actual guarantee they're all villagers, nor is there a guarantee there's an elim among them.

As for the exe on @Mailliw73, I need to review more of the suspicions coming from outside the PM group, because honestly, I don't really trust any of their opinions right now and I think it would be not the greatest thing to follow their lead once again.

More analysis to come.]

[---]

5 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Although a thing that I am curious about is why you revealed the fact that you knew of our plan to kill you to Maill and Quinn? Did Tani not tell you that she had Changed the target to Maill? And if she had told you, would you still have revealed it to Quinn?

Idk, for fun I guess? :P. I like to see people react to things that I'm not supposed to know? :P. If you're wondering why you didn't receive a pm from me as well, it's because I didn't know you were in the group :p.

She hadn't told me she wasn't killing me, or if she did I most definitely missed that :p. And I wouldn't have told him, but I probably would have sent him something since he was dying. Probably woulda still pmd quinn tho.

Posting this from mobile so if there's typos blame the phone

[Quivil]

30 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Idk, for fun I guess? :P. I like to see people react to things that I'm not supposed to know? :P. If you're wondering why you didn't receive a pm from me as well, it's because I didn't know you were in the group :p.

How did you find out that Quinn had a coinshot friend who was going to kill you?

 

[STINK]

1 minute ago, Tani said:

How did you find out that Quinn had a coinshot friend who was going to kill you?

 

Im going to hazard a guess that it involves a PM group that consists of 4 people

[Quintessential]

Just now, Tani said:

How did you find out that Quinn had a coinshot friend who was going to kill you?

Er... that may have been me. See, Illwei had been joking in our PM that I was elim, and so she asked me who I was gonna kill that night, and I was like "You, obviously " and then we were talking about it and I was like, "but I don't actually have the ability to kill you, so I've asked a friend to Coinshot you for me  I hope that's alright with you?" 

Because of course I'm a sadist or something jeez I feel awful for saying that stuff now : P

[Mailliw73]

7 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Er... that may have been me. See, Illwei had been joking in our PM that I was elim, and so she asked me who I was gonna kill that night, and I was like "You, obviously " and then we were talking about it and I was like, "but I don't actually have the ability to kill you, so I've asked a friend to Coinshot you for me  I hope that's alright with you?" 

Because of course I'm a sadist or something jeez I feel awful for saying that stuff now : P

Wait, this happened? This whole time you acted confused about how Illwei knew that someone was targeting her and so I thought we figured out it was Tani that told her. You did?? O.o

[Quivil]

5 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Wait, this happened? This whole time you acted confused about how Illwei knew that someone was targeting her and so I thought we figured out it was Tani that told her. You did?? O.o

I told Illwei that I was the coinshot friend.

Edit: But Illwei already knew she was being targeted.

Edited March 6, 2021 by Tani

[Wyrmhero]

Hi all,

 

As usual, Kas is too disappeared isn't around to tell you guys this, so I've been asked to step in and tell you that you only have 24 hours left to vote for Kas.

[Quintessential]

6 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Wait, this happened? This whole time you acted confused about how Illwei knew that someone was targeting her and so I thought we figured out it was Tani that told her. You did?? O.o

Illwei and I joke about stuff like this pretty... frequently. I don't think (?) she believed it until Tani told her. Since she was more or less like "wait you're actually going to kill me???" when she found out. So... yes but no? idk.

[Elandera]

4 minutes ago, Wyrmhero said:

Hi all,

 

As usual, Kas is too disappeared isn't around to tell you guys this, so I've been asked to step in and tell you that you only have 24 hours left to vote for Kas.

Who am I to disagree? Kas

[Mailliw73]

Just now, Quintessential said:

Illwei and I joke about stuff like this pretty... frequently. I don't think (?) she believed it until Tani told her. Since she was more or less like "wait you're actually going to kill me???" when she found out. So... yes but no? idk.

It’s just surprising to me that you told her and then you came to us and said something along the lines of “guys, Illwei knows someone is targeting her for death. Did any of you tell people about this?” 

That was the thing that caused all the distrust and blew everything up, so I just don’t see why you did that. Even if it came out that’s fine but it was weird that you asked who did it when it was you the whole time. 

Tani, you told her you were the coinshot friend but was that after or before the night got extended? 

[Quintessential]

1 minute ago, Mailliw73 said:

It’s just surprising to me that you told her and then you came to us and said something along the lines of “guys, Illwei knows someone is targeting her for death. Did any of you tell people about this?” 

That was the thing that caused all the distrust and blew everything up, so I just don’t see why you did that. Even if it came out that’s fine but it was weird that you asked who did it when it was you the whole time. 

...no it wasn't. I knew Illwei had taken what I'd said as a joke because of the way she unexpectedly was like "wait you were serious?" and since I hadn't said anything else about it, I knew someone else must have told her. In seriousness. I knew it wasn't me, so I figured it must be one of you or someone one of you told. that's what I was asking about. (and yeah I conveniently left out that I'd technically said it before but... yeah whatever idk. I suspect I may just end up staying away from PMs in the future tbh because whenever I'm in them I end up doing things that I later look back on and think "what was I even thinking" and I've no idea why.)

[Mailliw73]

19 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

...no it wasn't. I knew Illwei had taken what I'd said as a joke because of the way she unexpectedly was like "wait you were serious?" and since I hadn't said anything else about it, I knew someone else must have told her. In seriousness. I knew it wasn't me, so I figured it must be one of you or someone one of you told. that's what I was asking about. (and yeah I conveniently left out that I'd technically said it before but... yeah whatever idk. I suspect I may just end up staying away from PMs in the future tbh because whenever I'm in them I end up doing things that I later look back on and think "what was I even thinking" and I've no idea why.)

Oh okay I think I’m getting it, sorry for the confusion. So it was treated as a joke the whole time until Tani told Illwei at which point she realized you weren’t actually joking. Any of you three feel free to correct me if I’m wrong. I just didn’t know there was this exchange between Quinn and Illwei and got all twisted up. 

[Quintessential]

1 minute ago, Mailliw73 said:

Oh okay I think I’m getting it, sorry for the confusion. So it was treated as a joke the whole time until Tani told Illwei at which point she realized you weren’t actually joking. Any of you three feel free to correct me if I’m wrong. I just didn’t know there was this exchange between Quinn and Illwei and got all twisted up. 

Yes, that's right

[Araris Valerian]

7 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Also @Araris Valerian I was wondering if you could explain your vote on Ash last cycle? Now that Striker’s dead and cleared, could you explain your reasoning?  (I imagine Striker had something to do with it because you mentioned something about PMs with him being a reason for that vote).

I don’t really have much to add to the reasoning I already gave. At that point in time, the vote was between Striker and Ash. The fact that Striker sent me a PM but didn’t really ask for anything seemed rather village to me. It was getting late in the cycle so I voted Ash as a placeholder until I could find something better. Not because I has anything against Ash, but because I thought Striker was likely village.

[|TJ|]

21 hours ago, Tani said:

I killed XP cuz Matrim didn't want me to kill Illwei and I kinda didn't want to kill Illwei and I kinda didn't want to kill Mailliw and Matrim and the people in my pm group both suggested XP.

This is suspicious because why would Matrim oppose an Illwei kill but be indifferent to Experience's kill if he knew Experience was a Rioter? @Matrim's Dice can you elaborate more on this conversation. Okay later he says:

12 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I preferred Exp over Illwei

Why, if you knew Exp was a Rioter? Or... presumably no knowledge of Illwei's role?

21 hours ago, Tani said:

Seriously, don't do this! Don't trust people because they've proven their roles, no matter what said role is.

And this seems very opposite to what Tani has done so far in this game? I'm finding it difficult to think of reasons why a new player who rolled village!Mistborn is going around mass claiming, tbh. That's Mailliw and Quinn separately, then together with Stick in the group, then to Illwei, then to Matrim? That's..too much to overlook. I would have expected the complete opposite i.e. reserved about role and paranoid about trust. I would like to vote them out this cycle, but I think asking out Seeker to scan them would be better, in case they are actually telling the truth but it causes IKYK about elim!Smoker hiding village!Mistborn!Tani, so I'd like input on this from everyone. If you are reading them as village, why?

Another thought no one seemed to want to ask. @Tani, what was the metal given to you on D1 and what did you do with it?

14 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

I made the group because at the time, they were three of my highest village reads

Note to self (or anyone ISOing Maill): Check if this has been mentioned in thread. [ @Illwei & @Matrim's Dice cause Illwei has ISO'd and Mat was planning to?]

Gear's post does NOT help my suspicion on him. He spends time saying something that is obvious (or should be) and then proceeds to say that he'd be willing to kill everyone and anyone, which isn't entirely helpful.

8 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

But I’ll remind you that I did try to lead an exe on Ash (still suspicious of them btw)

I find Ashbringer's vote on TUO last cycle very suspicious by the way. And the fact that it stayed there till the end of the cycle as well. Don't get the Stick or Illwei grinch, don't want to enlarge Mailliw's lead just yet, cause that makes players hesitate to come up with alternate trains like what happened last cycle. Would vote for Tani, but as I said, I wanna know your thoughts first. Ashbringer 

2 hours ago, Elandera said:

@Tani: I'm suspicious. It might just be my general dislike of claiming important roles, but I really don't like how open they are about claiming Mistborn of all things after a single errant kill. This could easily be a villager thing, but it almost seemed they were worried that because several people knew about the kill, if they didn't claim, the'd be discovered anyways and exe'd for suspicion of being elim. I absolutely don't think we can trust Tani to be village just because she seemed a little guilty about killing a villager. However, I'm not quite willing yet to exe her just because of what I consider a bad claim. I wouldn't argue with some scans and such.

Agreed, as stated above, and village points for this.

Now, Fallion's Four (yes, I'm calling you that, it's the Shadesmar Eight of this game, deal with it :P), please give your reads on every other member of the group (not just like vote placement suspicions, but everything as a whole) [ @Mailliw73 @Quintessential @Tani @_Stick_ ]

Current trust of Fallion's Four:  Quinn >= Stick > Maill > Tani

Edit: Village reading Fifth and Elandera, and to an extent, Biplet. A little less on Mat, waiting for the reply, a little lesser on Stick which has decreased from my previous read cause of the whole Fallion's Four reveal, around the same for Quinn. 

Edited March 6, 2021 by TJ Shade
Edited to add village reads

[Stick.]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I don’t really have much to add to the reasoning I already gave. At that point in time, the vote was between Striker and Ash. The fact that Striker sent me a PM but didn’t really ask for anything seemed rather village to me. It was getting late in the cycle so I voted Ash as a placeholder until I could find something better. Not because I has anything against Ash, but because I thought Striker was likely village.

ooh okay, I guess I misunderstood your post - I thought you meant that you were voting Ash based on something exclusively discussed with Striker on PM that you can't reveal to the thread. Makes sense.

10 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Now, Fallion's Four (yes, I'm calling you that, it's the Shadesmar Eight of this game, deal with it :P), please give your reads on every other member of the group (not just like vote placement suspicions, but everything as a whole) [ @Mailliw73 @Quintessential @Tani @_Stick_ ]

illwei I think they're all village - a couple of hours ago I might've said I'm sorta suspicious of Maill, but now I'm getting increasingly convinced that every one of Tani, Quinn, Maill, illwei, and Mat are villagers. I think if an elim was involved here, this whole thing would've been managed (for lack of a better word) better. 

10 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

@Tani, what was the metal given to you on D1 and what did you do with it?

I EDIT: dont think Tani ever revealed this to the group (maybe to Maill/Quinn separately) but interestingly enough she revealed to the group what she rolled today. I dont see an elim revealing this to a group that isnt really working together anymore so I'm getting village vibes from that

Edited March 6, 2021 by _Stick_
POSTED early accidentally

[Quintessential]

Here's the stuff I was gonna post. It saved in my editor, and I ended up adding onto it and... yeah. Purple denotes anyone who is confirmed village (in my eyes, so yes, I'm marked as purple here when I appear).

C1 votes (you don't need to read this):

Spoiler

Araris voted Reading
Striker voted Gears
Pyro voted Striker
Matrim voted Striker
Quinn voted Striker
Illwei voted Quinn
Illwei voted Stick
Quinn voted Illwei
Stick voted Books
Dannex voted Quinn
Stick unvoted Books
Maill voted Illwei
Striker unvoted Gears
Bard voted Pyro
Striker voted Illwei
XP voted Stick
Tani voted Matrim
Tani voted Quinn
Illwei unvoted Stick
Illwei voted TJ
Quinn voted Maill
Quinn unvoted Maill
Fifth voted Reading
Biplet voted Illwei
Quinn voted Illwei
Illwei voted Illwei
Quinn unvoted Illwei
Gears voted Books
Biplet unvoted Illwei
Quinn voted Books
Tani voted Reading
Ventyl voted Books
Stick voted Books
Tani unvoted Reading
Striker voted Books
Ash voted Reading
Illwei voted Reading
Bard voted Books
Ash voted Books
Devotary voted Books
Books voted Reading
TJ voted Books

C2 votes (you don't need to read this):

Spoiler

Matrim voted Striker
Striker voted Stick
Bard voted Ash
Illwei voted Tani
Windrunner voted Striker
Quinn voted Striker
Tani voted Striker
Maill voted Striker
Striker voted Tani
Tani unvoted Striker
Stick voted Ash
Quinn voted Ash
Tani voted Illwei
Striker voted Ash
Araris voted Ash
Ash voted Quinn
Quinn voted Illwei
Illwei voted Araris 
TJ voted Gears
Ash unvoted Quinn
XP voted Araris
Ash voted TUO
Quinn voted Striker
Fifth voted Striker
Araris voted Pyro
Tani voted Striker
XP voted Maill
Illwei voted Pyro
Striker voted Pyro
Pyro voted Striker
Devo voted Pyro
TJ voted Pyro
Stick voted Striker

C3 votes (thus far):

Spoiler

Matrim voted Stick
Quinn voted Stick
Burnt voted Illwei
Stick voted Illwei
Tani voted Maill
Illwei voted Maill
Windrunner voted Maill
Araris voted Quinn
Maill voted Illwei
Matrim voted Maill
TJ voted Ash
Stick unvoted Illwei

Relationships:

Spoiler

I've been keeping lists of all of the pairs I think can't be e/e. I have them labeled based on the strength of the relationship. Here are the strong ones, and the reasoning behind each:

Maill/Illwei are not e/e. This one should be pretty obvious, given the whole PM-group-shenanigans thing. It may not have been Maill's idea to Coinshot Illwei, but he agreed pretty quickly when I suggested it, and he never gave any indication that he wasn't comfortable with the idea. Also, he's been consistently suspicious of her since D1, keeps trying to get her exed, etc.

Maill/Tani are not e/e. When I mentioned my slight suspicion of/worry about Maill to Tani yesterday morning, she agreed and quickly listed like three different reasons why I wasn't just being paranoid and why Maill could very well be elim. Also, she apparently would have ended up Coinshotting him if Night rollover had happened when it was supposed to, though we only have her word for that.

Biplet/Maill are not e/e. Maill false-claimed as a certain role to Biplet a while back in PMs, something which she independently confirmed. Could be some seriously complicated distancing, but I don't buy that.

Fifth/Maill are not e/e. Exact same reason as with Biplet, except I have no independent verification from Fifth on this one. 

TUO/Maill are not e/e. TUO apparently claimed to Maill--no independent confirmation from TUO though.

Matrim/Tani are not e/e. First of all, Tani voted Matrim D1 in one of her random vote-hop patterns. (side-note that if most or all of the people she "randomly" voted end up flipping village, I will be quite suspicious of her). I don't think that a newbie would know to do that to a teammate to distance? Additionally, Tani lied to Matrim about Maill's role (if I'm understanding mine and Matrim's PM convo correctly--please feel free to yell at me if I'm not).

Biplet/Illwei are not e/e. This one's tentative--but Illwei apparently told Biplet about the whole Coinshot thing in PMs. Could have easily happened in an elim doc, I suppose, which is why it's tentative, but I still find that unlikely.

Also, will note here (was reading through my PMs to see if I could get anything out of them) that Maill said in our group-PM that he trusted Bard... but then Bard informed me that Maill had claimed to him as something that Maill isn't. So... yeah idk. I assume what Maill meant by that was that he trusted Bard somewhat, but not as much as he trusted myself, Stick, and Tani (since he claimed and proved his real role to the three of us).

Also note that at most one of [Illwei, Biplet, Maill] can be elim if the three pairs involving them are correct.

Notable VCs:

Spoiler

underlines denote final votes.

C1:

Reading (1): Araris
Gears (1): Striker
Striker (3): Pyro, Matrim, Quinn
Stick (1): Illwei
Right before I moved off of Striker, this was the VC. No actual conclusions, but I figured I'd include it : P Matrim is still non-confirmed, but I could see the three Striker votes all being village so I wouldn't make much of that. On the other hand, it does surprise me a little bit to see that this early in (only a page after the start of the cycle) there were already final votes. I guess I'm not sure whether that's normal or not lol

Reading (1): Araris
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): Illwei
Illwei (3): Quinn, Maill, Striker
Quinn (1): Dannex
Pyro (1): Bard
Again with the 3-people-voting-the-same-person-and-one-isn't-confirmed. Doesn't actually mean anything, but patterns are fun XD also that's now five final votes.

Reading (2): Araris, Fifth
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): XP
Illwei (5): Maill, Striker, Biplet, Quinn, Illwei
Quinn (2): Dannex, Tani
Pyro (1): Bard
TJ (1): Illwei
This is the moment in time at which Illwei has the most votes she will have for... actually the entire game thus far, so I figured it was noteworthy (yes, my name did move positions on the list of people voting her; I briefly voted Maill, then switched back). This is the first place where I feel marginally comfortable saying that I'm pretty sure there's an elim on that train somewhere. Not positive, no, but pretty sure. Also I'm leaving that at only one because, as I concluded earlier, no more than one of Illwei, Maill, and Biplet can be elim (I'm just going to assume that's true until proven otherwise--otherwise I'd end up tinfoiling a team with the three of them on it and that would lead to this entire analysis being more or less useless xD)

Reading (4): Araris, Fifth, Ash, Illwei
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): XP
Illwei (1): Maill
Quinn (1): Dannex
Books (6): Gears, Quinn, Ventyl, Stick, Striker, Bard
This is the moment when Reading has the most votes... none of which have been confirmed yet XD I'd wager that at least one of those four is also elim, regardless of Reading's alignment (but more likely so if he's village). However, since there are four of them that doesn't say much. (note that Reading does end up with 4 votes because Books votes in... well not self-pres but whatever. But I consider this to be the most because it's when Reading has the most voters with potentially AI reasoning).

Reading (4): Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Books
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): XP
Illwei (1): Maill
Quinn (1): Dannex
Books (9): Gears, Quinn, Ventyl, Stick, Striker, Bard, Ash, Devotary, TJ
This is the final VC for C1. Things of note: again, I'm guessing that one of [Araris, Fifth, Ash, Illwei] is elim. I'm now also guessing that at least one of [Gears, Stick, Ash, Devotary, TJ] is elim. Note the overlap of [Ash], though that doesn't necessarily mean he's elim. Just that he likes to train-hop apparently. The other thing, which I'll get to later, is that Stick is the only non-confirmed person who's been on both final exe trains (from my perspective. From everyone else's, in the interest of full disclosure, I also fall into that category).

C2:

Striker (1): Matrim
Okay, am I the only one who finds it odd that Matrim's vote here was final? It was the first vote cast in the entire cycle, and it stayed there until the very end. Matrim is a fairly active player, and while yes, I know that he had an elim read on Striker, he does seem awfully certain of his choice here. Could see vil!Matrim tunneling and doing this, but idk... 

Striker (5): Matrim, Windrunner, Quinn, Tani, Maill
Ash (1): Bard
Tani (2): Illwei, Striker
This is the first maximum number of votes that Striker has. Right after this, Tani unvotes. Would note that the last vote placed was Striker's on Tani, after which Tani unvoted Striker... however, I don't have time-stamps on those votes so idk whether it was direct causality or something else. As it is, I could almost excuse this as just Tani being new except that like... yeah idk I've been using that excuse for her a lot lately so I'm not sure how far I can stretch it. More generally, would guess that there's an elim on Striker at this point but I've no idea which of those people it could be. Leaning towards Matrim and Tani, for reasons already stated, but I could see it being any of the four.

Striker (3): Matrim, Windrunner, Maill
Ash (5): Bard, Stick, Quinn, Striker, Araris
Tani (1): Illwei
Illwei (1): Tani
Quinn (1): Ash
This is the moment just before I switch from Ash to Illwei, so the moment when Ash has the most votes on him. Note that Stick and Araris are the only two non-confirmed people on him. Of course, we don't know Ash's alignment, but if he's elim then it wouldn't surprise me if elim!Araris voted him as a kind of bus/distancing attempt (wouldn't be the first time, after all). I would note that Araris was also the one who started the Pyro train. I'm not honestly sure what to make of all this, though, because Striker flipped vil. I could definitely see Striker/Araris being e/e but obviously that's not the case so... yeah. But, weird feeling from Araris's votes, especially if Ash is elim. If Ash is vil, I'd be equally suspicious of both Stick and Araris, which ig is also where I'm at while I don't know Ash's alignment. Tentatively assuming one of the two is elim.

Striker (3): Matrim, Windrunner, Maill
Ash (4): Bard, Stick, Striker, Araris
Illwei (2): Tani, Quinn
Araris (2): Illwei, XP
Gears (1): TJ
TUO (1): Ash
Hmm okay so this makes me feel much better about Ash actually. He could have tied himself with Striker (who we now know was village) and potentially saved himself but chose to vote on his suspicion instead. I doubt anyone would have blamed him for self-presing, so there wasn't much of an incentive for e!him not to. Then again, I don't have timestamps on these so I don't know how long he had left in the cycle. But still. Feeling better about Ash for this. 

Striker (5): Matrim, Windrunner, Maill, Quinn, Fifth
Ash (3): Bard, Stick, Striker
Illwei (2): Tani
Araris (2): Illwei, XP
Gears (1): TJ
TUO (1): Ash
Pyro (1): Araris
Ah! Okay, so here is the context I needed for Araris. He didn't switch his vote to Pyro until after Ash was no longer really an option. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that Araris/Ash are not e/e at this point, since if they had been then Araris likely would have either moved his vote when Ash seemed like he might be exed, or kept his vote on when Ash was no longer in immediate danger in order to distance. 

Striker (8): Matrim, Windrunner, Maill, Quinn, Fifth, Tani, Pyro, Stick
Ash (1): Bard
TUO (1): Ash
Pyro (5): Araris, Illwei, Striker, Devotary, TJ
Maill (1): XP
This is the final VC for C2. Given that Pyro/Striker was v/v, I'd guess that the elims spread their votes out between the two. So, postulating that one of [Araris, Illwei, Devotary, TJ] is elim and at least one of [Matrim, Windrunner, Maill, Fifth, Tani, Stick] is elim. Of the first group, I'm... not really sure how to feel about Devo and TJ. Those votes were both quite last-minute. However, since Devo has a history of voting late (I believe?) I'm thinking TJ is the more suspicious of the pair. Araris, meanwhile, I suspect for other reasons. Illwei, I've no idea tbh. 

Of the second group, Windrunner seems to have been on Striker because they placed the vote at the beginning of the cycle and then never came back to remove it. I'm more or less disregarding it for now because Windrunner is generally fairly inactive. Maill and Tani I'm also focusing less on because their votes were part of The Plan. Stick's actually wasn't--I wasn't even sure she'd be on board with exeing Striker after she'd presented her case for Ash, and it didn't seem necessary for her to move her vote, so we told her she didn't have to and I was actually kind of surprised when she did. Matrim I already explained my thoughts on. Fifth did go to the trouble of presenting his own case for why he was voting Striker, I believe, but there's a reason I'm looking just at the votes and not at the reasoning behind them--in my experience, it's pretty easy to fake that kind of thing. So Fifth is a Vote of Note here as well. 

C3: I'm not gonna go through a play-by-play or analyze this, but here's the current VC:

Stick (1): Quinn
Illwei (2): Burnt, Maill
Maill (4): Tani, Illwei, Windrunner, Matrim
Quinn (1): Araris
Ash (1): TJ

People who didn't have final votes:
Italics denotes people who did have votes at some point, but removed them before the end.
C1: Randby, Reading, Elandera, TUO, Windrunner, Burnt, STINK, Biplet, Daisy, Tani
C2: Gears, Dannex, Elandera, TUO, Burnt, STINK, Daisy

Conclusions (this section assumes that the assumptions I've made are correct. If any of them are proven wrong later on I'll adjust my conclusions accordingly):

Maill/Illwei not e/e
Maill/Tani not e/e
Maill/Biplet not e/e
Maill/Fifth not e/e
Maill/TUO not e/e
Matrim/Tani not e/e
Biplet/Illwei not e/e
Araris/Ash not e/e

One (and only one) of [Maill, Illwei, Biplet] is elim.
At least one of [Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Ash] is elim.
At least one of [Gears, Stick, Ash, Devotary, TJ] is elim.
At least one of [Araris, Stick] is elim.
At least one of [Araris, Illwei, Devotary, TJ] is elim.
At least one (probably more) of [Matrim, Windrunner, Maill, Fifth, Tani, Stick] is elim.

Araris is elim (started the vote on Reading, voted on Ash but then started the vote on Pyro as soon as the Ash train lost steam). 
Ash is village (I don't think Ash is elim with Araris, and aside from that he didn't self-pres on Striker when he had the chance; instead he voted on TUO, whom he suspected).
Reading is village (Araris started the train on him)

Matrim is elim (this is a bit more tentative, but... well, look. Matrim has voted exactly one person this entire game, and expressed strong suspicion of exactly one person this entire game, and that person flipped village. And then Mat didn't really... stop and reconsider, exactly? Like, if you're a villager and you're tunneling hard enough on someone that they're the only person you ever have a vote on for the first two cycles, then you're gonna need to do some pretty serious rethinking once they flip village, right? And I don't recall really seeing that from Mat. Last Night the only two suspicions he mentioned were on Tani and Maill.)
Tani is village (again, tentatively, because it's partially dependent on Mat. But also... just, new-player vibes? idk, I get that some people think she's sus for the whole claiming thing, but can you really see elim!her doing that without asking her team first? And can you really see her team saying that's a good idea? Since it wasn't even her idea to Coinshot Illwei in the first place, and the rest of us approved XP, if one of us had outed her to the thread she would have had that as a response. It just seems like genuine newness to think that you have to claim over a single badly-targeted vig kill.)

Maill is elim. I'm incredibly unsure about this one, but I tried to write out reasons why I think he's village and then realized I had none except that Matrim is voting him. And honestly, I might even have kept him down as village anyway were it not for one really... kind of strange exchange I had with him last Night? I mentioned that I was looking at final VCs and that from them I'd concluded that Stick was sus because she was sheeping the final trains. This is not, in fact, what was happening (if you look at the progression of votes) but I didn't realize that at the time because I'd only just started my analysis, and when I mentioned it to Maill he kind of... seized on it? Like, sort of overeagerly, if that makes sense. Told me like three times in the same 4-sentence-ish PM message that it was interesting or useful or something like that : P the tone felt super off to me, and that combined with his general... openness to me, Tani, and Stick, which seems to me now to have been kind of arbitrary since he claimed to us D1 or beginning of D2 and since then he hasn't real-claimed to anyone else (that I know of), whereas he's told us about a few other people he fake-claimed to. So... hmmm this is making me less sure about my elim-read on Matrim. Then again, he was the most recent person to vote for Maill so that could very well be distancing.
This means--and I'm fairly certain about all five of these if Maill is elim, particularly the first three--that Illwei, Tani, Biplet, Fifth, and TUO are village. 

So that leaves me with Gears, Dannex, Elandera, TJ, Devo, Burnt, STINK, Stick, and Daisy as the pool from which to draw the remaining three elims. Or 4 elims, if I think Matrim is village (Tani would be village if either Maill or Matrim is elim, so nobody else's alignment thus far is dependent on Matrim's alone.)

Of these, I know nothing about Daisy, and honestly I doubt we're going to find anything out about her any time soon, either. She might be a good Coinshot target, just so we don't have to waste a cycle's vote figuring out whether the person who's never said anything is elim.

I haven't the faintest idea about STINK theoretically, but also he's actually had some decent, if short and unelaborated, points... so leaning away from him as elim. 

Dannex hasn't really said much since D1, when he voted me... notably seems to be keeping a low profile, which is somewhat unusual for him but also he could be busy. So, leaning elim but he's not at the top of my list-of-people-to-exe.

Windrunner... I'm gonna just mark them village tbh. Idk if this is really the best idea and by going for precision I'm definitely sacrificing some amount of accuracy, but they haven't... voted elimmy, and haven't been acted much different than normal (which is to say, they haven't been acting much at all) so I'll just go with it here.

TJ just posted and made an incredibly valid point about Gears--that he's basically been stating the obvious all game--so I might lean towards Gears being elim. Unfortunately, I'm also currently leaning elim on TJ for being the last vote on a long train in both cycles... but he was elim in the QF so I can definitely understand v!him here not being able to keep up very well. 

I'm leaning away from Devo being elim because she's doing what is apparently normal for her (voting last-minute). Of course, she did that in LG73 (when she was elim) as well. So I guess it's literally NAI for her but I have to narrow this down somehow.

Burnt and Elandera I have legitimately no idea. Stick I should have an idea but I don't, so I'll go with elim because they've voted every cycle and I've talked to them a lot and I still have legitimately no idea, which seems wrong to me.

So. People I think are most likely to be elims:

Araris, Matrim, Maill, Stick, TJ, Gears, Dannex, and possibly one of the near-inactives/nulls (Daisy, Burnt, Elandera)

People I think are less likely to be elims: Everyone else.

If I had to guess an elim team of 6 right now, I'd say Araris/Maill/Stick/Gears/Dannex/Daisy, but obviously that's mostly just randomly picked from my list so I don't expect it to be right.

@TJ Shade I believe that answers your question? Also, go read my explanation of why Ash's vote on TUO is villagery more than elimmy (under Notable VCs, C2)

Oh! And before I forget: Stick Maill

Apart from my suspicion on Maill for the reasons listed above, I kind of need to know his alignment before I can pursue a lot of the rest of this analysis with any degree of certainty. I would also be perfectly fine voting Matrim or Araris this turn though, since my reads on them have nothing to do with Maill. 

Edit: @_Stick_ yes Tani revealed in the group what she rolled. Not to each of us separately. (it's not steel, don't worry : P)

Edited March 6, 2021 by Quintessential

[Elandera]

[OOC: I'm working my way through the game so far, and am not taking detailed notes. I just don't have the energy for that. Thus, I am just generating gut reads. Those tend to be more accurate for me anyways, so my votes my have little reasoning. I'll try to explain, though, what caused the reads.

Current vote count:

Experience (0) - Illwei
_Stick_ (0) - Matrim's Dice, Quintessential
Wyrm (0) - Illwei
Illwei (3) - Burnt Spaghetti, _Stick_, Mailliw73
Mailliw73 (5) - Tani, Illwei, The Windrunner Supreme, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential
Quinntessential (1) - Araris Valerian
Kasimir (2) - Wyrmhero, Elandera
Ashbringer (1) - TJ Shade

D1 Review

I'm going to point out Fallion's Four (great name @TJ Shade) seemed to have all been suspicious of each other D1, but still claimed within a few days of that suspicion? Definitely worried about some kind of elim plot cooked up by Maill to make their machinations look village....

More specifically, a few of the people in Fallion's Four plus those tied to its workings expressed mild suspicion of Tani after her sporadic voting D1. Part of me feels the Mistborn claim could have been an attempt to ease that suspicion. I wouldn't expect that of a new player, but Tani herself pointed out she's played games like this before and anyone would be hesitant to act against someone who claimed village Mistborn and had some ability to at least prove the role.

I'm also going to note that Striker in D1 listed suspicions of both Quinn and Illwei, and Quinn seems (if I'm not getting confused) to be one of those mainly advocating for his exe last turn in their PM.

Also of note is this post from Bard (bolded mine): 

Quote

I'm conscious of the discussion after the MR about how high-activity players tend to get more suspicion tunnelled on them because there's more there to find suspicious, so all other things being equal, I'm trying to go after the lower-activity players.

It's possible there are elims among the lurkers that were made uncomfortable by this post and put Bard on the list. That death is also consistent with the other low-information kills so far, since Bard himself wasn't super active in the thread.

And my concentration is waning. I need food. I think I'm about halfway through D1 review and will return to do more later so I stop skimming. Skimming is bad for analysis.

Reads for now:

Spoiler

Matrim's Dice: Mild village

Gears: Neutral (can never read them)

Quinn: Mild elim

Fifth: Mild village

Reading: Neutral

Araris: Mild village

Dannex: Neutral

Ashbringer: Neutral to mild elim

TJ Shade: Village

Illwei: Mild elim

Devotary: Neutral

Mailliw: Mild elim to neutral

TUO: Neutral

Windrunner: Neutral

Burnt Spaghetti: Neutral

STINK: Village

Stick: Mild elim to neutral

Biplet: Milid village

Daisy: Neutral

Tani: Mild elim to elim

I'll return later today once I've had some food and a mental break.]

Edited March 6, 2021 by Elandera
Posted too soon

[STINK]

6 minutes ago, Elandera said:

once I've had some food

What's the food gonna be tho

[Araris Valerian]

Hmm, I’m not really sure I agree with your methodology, @Quintessential. You have an underlying assumption that any significant vote train will have at least one elim in it. However, if all of the potential grinch targets up to now have been village, then there isn’t really much backing for that assumption, since the elims could just as easily sit back and let us kill each other. In fact, your methodology penalizes players who are active and are willing to contribute.

My approach (and several of the options I proposed in my post where I voted for you), is to clarify whether any elims have actually been in danger (via Reading, and to a lesser extent, Illwei) and/or grinch some inactives to see if the elims are hiding there. I think it makes more sense to do that than to kill off our voting population based on a flawed assumption. Of course, this is purely from a vote analysis perspective. 

I also think an elim might deliberately use your process to chain a whole bunch of misgrinches. Just say “X group has at least one elim”, and then proceed to find, 5 villagers later, that there aren’t actually any elims in that group. I also feel like if you actually believed your analysis, you’d be voting on me or Stick, since that is the smallest group you give that supposedly has at least one elim, and you even have us both in your proposed team. But instead your analysis lead you to retract from Stick.

[Stick.]

34 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Edit: @_Stick_ yes Tani revealed in the group what she rolled. Not to each of us separately. (it's not steel, don't worry : P)

She told us what she rolled D1? I just went back to the PM and I can't find it?

9 minutes ago, Elandera said:

More specifically, a few of the people in Fallion's Four plus those tied to its workings expressed mild suspicion of Tani after her sporadic voting D1. Part of me feels the Mistborn claim could have been an attempt to ease that suspicion. I wouldn't expect that of a new player, but Tani herself pointed out she's played games like this before and anyone would be hesitant to act against someone who claimed village Mistborn and had some ability to at least prove the role

The PM group was created on Tuesday (around 2 pm my time to be specific), which would've been during D2. Prior to this, I didn't have a PM with Quinn and my PM with Tani was kinda OOG stuff and we hadn't talked roles or even suspicions much. I did have a PM with Maill and I did express my suspicions regarding Tani (the same ones I mentioned in-thread D1), but he seemed to have a village read on her and we just sort of left it there until the group PM. And Tani's Mistborn claim in the group PM is what led me to read her village (because I dont see a first-timer elim just role-claiming such an important role like that out of the blue? Like they would have some sort of guidance/advice from their teammates I'd think). At this instance, iirc, I posted in-thread something along the lines of "due to PM things I believe Tani's 80% village" or something like that.