Long Game 74: You Want It Darker

[Mat]

7 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Maill/Striker potentially e/e.

I do believe I've said this :P.

[Mailliw73]

When did I say Stick was a top suspicion?

[---]

6 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

I found Ventyl, Stick, and Striker to be the most suspicious.

6 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Stick brought it to 3-3-4 between Illwei, Reading, and Books. I don't really see that as alignment indicative yet.

There's no mention of stick outside these comments. one saying that you find stick suspicious, and another saying that you think one thing she did is NAI.

[Mailliw73]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

There's no mention of stick outside these comments. one saying that you find stick suspicious, and another saying that you think one thing she did is NAI.

Ah, I didn't explain well. The first mention was that based solely off the votes I initially found those three to be in the most suspicious spot, because that's where the exe on Books was solidified. Of the three, as I recapped the voting times and other votes, that's when I made the second comment and decided it wasn't very AI. Also off other things, mostly PM stuff that I don't particularly want to put here, and yes, gut, I don't find Stick very suspicious. 

[Ashbringer]

I’ve been busy ish; I can be caught up with the thread but not really reflect on it... that being said I feel like I’m not alone in that. Idk.

[The Windrunner Supreme]

I haven't been on since Thursday because of camping and lots of school. Sorry about that.

I'm not going to say much now, but I think Striker is mostly elim to me.

On Wednesday probably i'm going to post a long thread of what I think is happening so far. Hopefully people stop posting sooooooooooooooooooooooo much so I can finish it .

Also, can I get a vote count? And when does this day end?

[Quivil]

5 hours ago, The Windrunner Supreme said:

Also, can I get a vote count?

Tani(1): Illwei

Striker(2): Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme

Stick(1): StrikerEZ

Ashbringer(1): Young Bard

[Quintessential]

So it's 7:30am here, I just got up, and I'm probably not fully awake yet (that is to say, this is almost certainly gonna change), but Striker. Would bother to provide original reasoning or at least reiterate everyone else's but I'm tired and the idea of doing thorough rereads sounds like torture to me right now so here this is XD (no, Ash, you aren't the only one who can keep up but not reflect. That is exactly the boat I'm in right now)

[Quivil]

10 hours ago, Illwei said:

Tani

Is there a reasoning behind this?

Edit: PS I AM NOT SELF VOTING IM JUST QUOTING SOMEONE'S VOTE

A lot of people are voting for Striker and seem to have sound reasoning for doing so...

So yeah.

Edited March 2, 2021 by Tani
To make things more clear

[Quintessential]

5 minutes ago, Tani said:

Is there a reasoning behind this?

Edit: PS I AM NOT SELF VOTING IM JUST QUOTING SOMEONE'S VOTE

Don't worry, votes within quotes aren't counted  also if you want to make that especially clear for people who are just skimming, you can change votes to orange within quotes to make it obvious.

2 minutes ago, Tani said:

A lot of people are voting for Striker and seem to have sound reasoning for doing so...

So yeah.

(note that it's generally a good idea to avoid double-posting--though if you edit a post to add a vote, you should @ the GM)

[Kasimir]

So, batch of rule clarifications for you all:

• Are Thug survivals and Lurcher protections distinguished in the write-up?

We have actually not had a consistent policy on this that I can see across the Tyrian AGs, so I am going to rule that I will not distinguish them for you - you will get the lynched and survived note, or the attacked and survived note, depending on whether it's Day or Night. (Obviously if it's during the Day, it can't be a Lurch, but I won't clear up if the player is definitely a Thug or a Mistborn who drew Pewter.)

• Do Lurchers protect from all attacks at night?

Lurchers only protect from one attack. If a Coinshot (I can neither confirm nor deny that there exists a Coinshot in this game) happens to target the same player as a second Coinshot, then Lurching will save the player from Coinshot #1 but not Coinshot #2. (I can also neither confirm nor deny there exists a Lurcher in this game.)

Edited March 2, 2021 by Kasimir

[Mat]

Aaaaaand here's Mat's signature *nervous about his own train he started because of the fast bandwagoning* :P.

[STINK]

we have like a whole day whats with the self-preservation votes and bandwagoning talk a whole 24 hours to be had gentlemen

[Mat]

1 minute ago, STINK said:

we have like a whole day whats with the self-preservation votes and bandwagoning talk a whole 24 hours to be had gentlemen

Mostly the fact that I went to sleep and when I woke up my single vote's train had quadrupled in size  I don't pay attention to the timestamps :P.

[Mailliw73]

So it’s 4-1-1-1 from what I can tell but I’m on mobile so who knows right now. 

I was waiting to place a vote for sure until I saw some more opinions on Striker, Illwei, or Mat/Pyro. Now there’s been quite an increase in Striker and I’m uneasy voting for him completely in confidence. I’m going to put my vote there for now, but I will note that it’s subject to change. Illwei is still not forgotten and is probably just a smidge higher on my suspicions. 

[StrikerEZ]

So, I'm not gonna have much time to get on and defend myself today. And definitely won't be on for the last 8-9 hours or so. At best, I'll be around for a few hours before I go to sleep. I'm switching from Stick to Tani. It feels like they're overemphasizing their newness as a player, probably due to being coached by an elim team about doing that. If they flip elim, I'd look at some older players, because that was a pretty popular strategy when new players got elim. So like, Maill, stick, Araris, etc. Of the people voting me, I'm most suspicious of Tani and Maill. Mat and Quinn feel normal to me, even if they're sus of me (which, I mean, when does that never happen? ), and Windrunner hasn't done much, so idk about them.

Tani(2): Illwei, Striker

Striker(5): Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Quinn, Tani, Maill

Ashbringer(1): Young Bard

[Quivil]

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

 I'm switching from Stick to Tani. It feels like they're overemphasizing their newness as a player, probably due to being coached by an elim team about doing that.

I have said repeatedly that I am NOT new to games like this!!!

Please stop attributing my innocence or guilt to how new I am!!! Really!!!!

Thanks.

[---]

@Tani what was the goal of PMing me?

[Ashbringer]

... what's the goal in PMing anyone?

 

[Quivil]

@Illwei To ask you stuff...

 

@Kasimir

Edit: You know what, I'm not going to vote Striker or anyone else for now. I may change my mind later.

Edited March 2, 2021 by Tani
to avoid doubleposting

[StrikerEZ]

40 minutes ago, Tani said:

I have said repeatedly that I am NOT new to games like this!!!

Please stop attributing my innocence or guilt to how new I am!!! Really!!!!

Thanks.

I’m not trying to attribute it to just your newness. I’m just saying that I think you’re acting in a way that like...makes people just go “oh you’re just a new player.” Either that or you’re just not used to the meta around here and are just going for it however you want.

[STINK]

Can confirm they're just going gung-ho and I'm all for it

[Stick.]

Aight then!

Let's look at @Young Bard first:

Quote

I know Striker used to get exe'd early a lot, I have no idea if that's still a thing. But his post seems consistent with what I remember of his playstyle.

Young Pyromancer - you were awfully quick to jump on Striker, and I kind of got the sense you weren't actually trying to find any Elims so much as you needed to seem villagery and jump on the first plausible candidate you could find.

At this point in D1 the votes were pretty spread out:

Gears(1): Striker
Striker(2): Pyro, Mat
Stick(1): illwei
Quinn(1): Dannex
The vote itself seems pretty NAI given the state of the vote distributions at the time with everyone throwing votes around everywhere (expected, on D1), but the reasoning is kinda interesting because Mat had cast his vote on Striker literally 2 minutes after Pyro, soon followed by Quinn too. 

Quote

Uhhh... Partly gut. Partly the fact that you and Quinn are more high-active players, and I'm conscious of the discussion after the MR about how high-activity players tend to get more suspicion tunnelled on them because there's more there to find suspicious, so all other things being equal, I'm trying to go after the lower-activity players.

But I think his justification makes a lot of sense from a villager's perspective, so I'll let it slide. xD

Quote

I'm hoping to get some RP done this turn, and to respond to the various PM's, but first of all I want to cement Books in as the candidate, since they're in the lead and I'd rather make sure there isn't a tie of some kind - this way I shouldn't give any players or GM's coronaries over last minute vote switches. (I think they're probably my preferred candidate between Illwei, Stick, and Books, as well.) Also, Pyromancer.

I'm assuming you meant Reading here in the bolded part but  This post doesn't seem elim to me at all because the votes before Bard's were 4-5 between Reading and Books and given the vote manips and everything, this vote may as well have been the swing vote, which is a risky move to make as an elim. Not impossible, but unlikely imo.

15 hours ago, Young Bard said:

I'm slightly short on time, so this will be briefer than I want it to be, but I'm gonna drop a vote on Ashbringer. They don't sound to me like they're actually trying to solve the game - large parts of the discussion they've contributed is around the mechanics of the game, rather than analysis, and the analysis they have done feels like they're playing it safe, like they don't want to say anything that will attract attention or that they can't reverse on a dime later as necessary.

I mostly agree with this. I hadn't even considered Ash yet because honestly there's so many players here I haven't played with before so they kinda got blurred together in my mind so thanks for bringing them up!

I will now be looking closer at Ash. Smooth transition eh?  (Overall tentative village read on Bard)

Their first post was RP and the second was just a single comment about how there are votes being casted - pretty NAI.

Their third post talked about how Ventyl has role-claimed in-thread in past games, and thus Ventyl doing so now is NAI. This was followed by a very IKYK paragraph:

Quote

I just... every time I roll Elim there seems to be some reason why I end up really busy and go inactiveish for all or part of it? Last MR was kind of an extreme case, but it does seem every time there is something that happens... I don't know if it's just Elim!me hates being quippish or just a weird coincidence, but I kinda wanted that out before I got my alignment.

Of course, I am a Villager this time around, but I would personally take that with a grain of salt 

Which, uh, I'm not quite sure what to make of. Extremely NAI, probably.

Their next post commented on guessing the elim team distribution, and the content of the post - well I agree with what it says, but it kinda sticks out how the post covers almost every possible combination of an elim team and talks about how everything is likely which...I don't know. It seems like they wanted to sound as unbiased as possible, and I mean it worked. I didn't think much of the post when I first read it because I agree with the stuff that it says in general, but the way it's written out is just kinda odd bc it almost looks like they're going around in circles.

Then there's that big post, where they basically summarised what everyone had done in the turn (that was helpful - thanks! ). The only actual thoughts and/or reads in that post were these:

Spoiler

 

Quinn: sounds genuine
Stick: criticised my analysis (ouch xD)
Illwei: oddly hostile
Maill: active but without saying much
TJ: elim gut read (?I think)
Ventyl: good for a seeking target on the second night

And they ended up voting...Reading xD In the post all they really said about Reading was:

Quote

"Joe of the Reading - that name seems more confusing than even this own strange convention - was first to suggest a number for those spiked - six or seven, which seems reasonable."

Which doesn't really explain the vote xD

Quote

...READING!, if only to make things more entertaining for you," Derrick finished. "Derrick is curious. And if it's between those with Books and those who Read them..." He collapsed to the pounded earth. "It's almost like a chicken-and-the-egg-type thing. But... let's see, now. If it comes to a tie, Derrick will attempt to prevent, if he's awake... but for now let's keep options open, you see?"

Here they explain that it's essentially just a random vote, and that they would prevent a tie if it comes down to it (which it did, and they followed through on this, changing their vote to Books). I'm curious though, why didn't you vote for TJ, who (as far as I could tell) was the only player you expressed actual suspicion on in the post? @Ashbringer I mean cuz, the vote was meant to be tentative anyway like you admitted yourself, so why not vote on somebody you're actually suspicious of?

First post during the night turn comments on the vote manips - NAI stuff. Second night post is interesting:

Quote

I voted Reading mainly because they seemed to be around but saying almost nothing of substance, which... seems to follow a few other players as well.

...That and for the pun with Reading Books 

In my opinion this isn't a reason convincing enough, mainly because 1) They did not mention this at all in their reads post, and 2) They admit that there's other players that are also showing similar patterns

So...why Reading? I still don't completely understand  

Then there's another post commenting on the vote manip possibilities....NAI. Then they post about how everyone's focusing too much on the vote manips, which is true, but then they say this:

Quote

... I don't think a Lurcher should guard Ventyl, honestly. We need Lurchers to be around for when a Coinshot or Seeker gets forced to out, and the best way for that to happen is if Lurchers self-target and claim Thug. There's no way for the Elims to punch through a Lurcher unless they somehow get a Coinshot (and even then, maybe not? I forget), and I doubt they'd try and multihit lest they either A.) okay there's a Lurcher, still can't kill them or B.) congratulations you killed a Thug.

That being said, Lurchers being erratic is likely a good strategy, especially if we're worried about an Elim!Seeker who can just outright find a Lurcher from a Thug. So, maybe?

Just like that post about the elim team distribution, what rubs me the wrong way is how they present one possibility, and then immediately follow it with another possibility that directly opposes the first? I mean yes both of them make sense but it just comes off as though they don't want to commit to one opinion, and are trying really hard to play it safe.

Then this post is very much NAI, but interestingly they hint at being vanilla, which they later clarify to be not really a claim. Don't like the general vibes of that whole thing xD

Interestingly, Ash was the first player to post D2, and did not comment on the NK or the Ventyl kill until later on. As opposed to, let's say, Mat, whose comment about how the Ventyl kill might be the NK makes me read them village, (albeit not to a great extent or anything because I have certainly feigned confusion around these things as an elim). The fact that Ash only said anything about the kills doesn't sit well with me, and the way they claimed to not know about the fact that they kills are distinguished in the write-up is also kinda just awkward.

Anyway wow that took a lot of time Ashbringer I guess for now

...My main intention for this post was to look at Striker's posts >> SOON (TM) that then.

 

edit: would just like to add that based on our PMs I think Tani's village like 75%

Edited March 2, 2021 by _Stick_

[Quivil]

8 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Either that or you’re just not used to the meta around here and are just going for it however you want.

I'm not sure what you mean by this, but I think it's accurate.

(Meta means change.)

[Quintessential]

10 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Anyway wow that took a lot of time Ashbringer I guess for now

Okay Ashbringer I've been feeling less and less certain about my Striker vote (which does not surprise me at all, since I placed it less than a half-hour after I got up), and Stick has some good points. Ash does, in fact, seem to be avoiding taking stances on anything, and that Reading vote (especially the retroactive justification for it) is odd. 

Edit: Striker why do I always forget to retract : P

Edited March 2, 2021 by Quintessential