Quick Fix 50: Return to Tar Valon

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Breaker said:

Rock
Paper
Scissors

duck

[Guest Breaker]

Burnt lost the RPS. We made it to 12 pages. AMERICA!

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

;-;

[James Brafin he/him]

Why you got to bully Burnt like that? ;_;

[Liranil she/her]

1 minute ago, Breaker said:

Burnt lost the RPS. We made it to 12 pages. AMERICA!

I believe it's spelled 'MURICA! XD

[Guest Breaker]

Liranil

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Liranil said:

I believe it's spelled 'MURICA! XD

I believe it's spelled please ship me out of here but not to australia because they have spiders

Edited January 15, 2021 by Illwei

[Guest Breaker]

Just now, Illwei said:

I believe it's spelled please ship me out of here but not to australia because they have spiders

Spider-Man! Spider-Man! Does whatever a spider can! 
Is he strong? Listen, bud! He's got radioactive blood!
Look out! There goes the Spider-Man!

[Liranil she/her]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

I believe it's spelled please ship me out of here but not to australia because they have spiders

For real tho lol

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

6 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

Why you got to bully Burnt like that? ;_;

<3 and this is why James must never die. James is precious soul in scary new environment

 

4 minutes ago, Liranil said:

For real tho lol

Can confirm

[Illwei]

11 hours ago, James Brafin said:

I'm also leaning towards 4, from past experience off-site.
It looks like the Elims might have two kills maybe? Either that or our Greens mis-shot pretty hard (or I'm misreading the rules and a Warder dies if the dude they are protecting dies too).

I need to go eat here and head to my scholarship job, but I'll try and keep an eye on this.

wait. forgot this. looking through to respond to liranil maybe if i feel like it and-

ya know I've been harrassed for many a townslip and so i do consider myself to be an expert and , doggonit, this do be da good townslip if i diddly darn did do see one got done dangit

Edited January 15, 2021 by Illwei

[Guest Breaker]

Admittedly, a bit out of character for his otherwise-indicated familiarity with mafia. So off with his head!

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Mild Elim: James, Dan-

Null: Gears, Ashbringer, Lotus, Archer, Shard of Reading, Striker, -nex, Flyingbooks, Devotary, Kings.

Slight Village: Matrim, Breaker, Liranil, Burnt, Illwei, Condensation.

Very Village: Quinn.

Pure Village: The Unknown Order. 

Edited January 15, 2021 by The Unknown Order

[Guest Breaker]

For the record, I am mostly just messing with my friend James. He’s not seeming necessarily elim to me, just off-base. Which is super convenient for me messing with him. Vote-dancing is fun!

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

4 minutes ago, Breaker said:

For the record, I am mostly just messing with my friend James. He’s not seeming necessarily elim to me, just off-base. Which is super convenient for me messing with him. Vote-dancing is fun!

He's actually my only Elim read. 

[Illwei]

Okay I definitely planned to respond to Liranil.
I also definitely forgot what I was going to say.

Just came off of a game where I ended up not being able to trust any of my reads and I forgot how Elims can be sometimes. that meta is so different from ours though, so...adjusting? I am? maybe?

so uh. Imma do easy things then and go through thread. hopefully will have a better idea of who I wanna kill.

Honestly fluffposting in thread is a pet peeve of mine, because of how much I go through the thread. it makes it hard to see the actual posts going back through, especially without ISOs, or...really any sort of good search feature :P. and here I am being a hypochondriac. a very hypogriff.

And man I started off so strong, too ;-;. and then...
people do nonsense and I want to nonsense too ;-; and...I gave in, today. I gave in to the chaos, and for this? I ask you all to forgive me. ;-;. 

5 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

He's actually my only Elim read. 

and a top village read?

What I said before about James I meant. He's goin' in my vil reads for now bc of that town slip. I buy it. I mean, maybe change later but ya know, I buy it.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Just now, Illwei said:

Okay I definitely planned to respond to Liranil.
I also definitely forgot what I was going to say.

Just came off of a game where I ended up not being able to trust any of my reads and I forgot how Elims can be sometimes. that meta is so different from ours though, so...adjusting? I am? maybe?

so uh. Imma do easy things then and go through thread. hopefully will have a better idea of who I wanna kill.

Honestly fluffposting in thread is a pet peeve of mine, because of how much I go through the thread. it makes it hard to see the actual posts going back through, especially without ISOs, or...really any sort of good search feature :P. and here I am being a hypochondriac. a very hypogriff.

And man I started off so strong, too ;-;. and then...
people do nonsense and I want to nonsense too ;-; and...I gave in, today. I gave in to the chaos, and for this? I ask you all to forgive me. ;-;. 

and a top village read?

What I said before about James I meant. He's goin' in my vil reads for now bc of that town slip. I buy it. I mean, maybe change later but ya know, I buy it.

I read him as village because of how he was playing, then he said something that me sus, so when I gave everyone a rating, he got Elim. 

[Guest Breaker]

Cant we all just get along?

wait, wrong chat. 
illwei, who would you like us to shrek?

[Ashbringer he/him]

Dannex, because I was not planning on staying up this late and if my alarm fails me I may very well sleep through rollover.

[dannnex male]

Does anyone have a vote count? I don’t want to Roleclaim if I don’t have to, but if you all are still fixated on me, that’s my last bargaining chip.

Edit: It should also be noted that this:

Quote

Dannex, because I was not planning on staying up this late and if my alarm fails me I may very well sleep through rollover.

Doesn’t contain any actual reasons. Very much sheeping, very suspicious. 

Edited January 15, 2021 by Dannex

[|TJ| he/him]

VC:

Dannex (5): Ashbringer, Liranil, Shard of Reading, James Brafin, Condensation
Liranil (2): Matrim's Dice, Illwei
StrikerEZ (1): Archer

I keep repeating myself, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

Edited January 15, 2021 by TJ Shade

[Ashbringer he/him]

19 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Does anyone have a vote count? I don’t want to Roleclaim if I don’t have to, but if you all are still fixated on me, that’s my last bargaining chip.

Edit: It should also be noted that this:

Doesn’t contain any actual reasons. Very much sheeping, very suspicious. 

My reasons are 1) don’t really want to get surprised by vote swings and 2) you make more sense than Lirianil. My other suspicions hinge on a few things.

[Illwei]

1 hour ago, Breaker said:

illwei, who would you like us to shrek?

didn't i just say that i don't know? ;-; and I'll come back tomorrow hopefully with thoughts? ;-;. Right now I'm still feeling not Danex, that's all I know. There wasn't enough panic or resistance around that one IMO but there also isn't a lot of time to let it sit in QFs, with only 24 hours. Someone could choose to get mad at me because I made that argument for Aman in MR46 ;-; but that was different because we found out that the two other Elims were inactive and at different timezones then the thing took place, which is a possibility I guess for this, but there's still 12 hours, right??? in the day??? or am I going insane. 11:00 IST wait. hold on. no. there's like. 9 hours. right? 9 am PST about should be 2300 ist i think. so-

here we go lessee

None of these are good thinks. not at all. I have not gone back through thread finished that yet. so. yeah.

    Mat - No, mild village read.
    Gears -
    Ash - No, mild village read.
    Breaker - ...HmmmmMMMMM no?
    Quinn - No
    Lotus -
    Archer - no, Ehhhhhhhhh read.
    Liranil -
    Reading - No, Village read.
    Striker -
    Order -
    James - No, Strong Village read.
    Burnt - No, Burnt. :3
    Danex - No, Village read.
    Books -
    Devo -
    Kings Way - No, Inactive
    Connie - No, I think misunderstanding. not high village read, not incredibly suspicious either.
    Illwei - No, it me.

So i think we should kill in:

Liranil, Lotus, Books, Striker, Order, Gears, Burnt.

As I said, not a good think yet. hopefully will be a good think eventually. and it's close to rollover, and no one agrees with me. three perfect ingredients!!

Also realized I never posted this. Sure hope I can get up before rollover. Probbaly. Yeah. yeah.

Also we're...almost at 300 posts, huh. that is. terrifying. this is. a QF. what. happened.

Edited January 15, 2021 by Illwei

[dannnex male]

Liranil, completely out of self pres. Now this should tell you something. Earlier I was asking for a Vanilla (aka: the weakest possible role) to sacrifice themselves to give us valuable role information. Now, I myself am actively trying to prevent my own death, even though my death would also give us valuable information. However, I am not a hypocrite. So if I am voting Liranil, it’s because I believe that my role is likely more valuable than theirs. “But Dannex,” I hear you say, “we have absolutely no idea what Liranil’s role is!” And that is what should tell you something.

Ofc, all those that are tunneling on me would just assume that I’m an Elim, because Elims would obviously self pres vote too. Which is fair.
So let’s examine myself from their perspective, hm? What do I look like from an outside POV? I’ll do my best to explain anything that might’ve been confusing.

1. I join the thread, post some basic role analysis. Like multiple people were doing. Some people were claiming that this was Elim indicative, because I didn’t say anything that people before me didn’t already. Those people weren’t online when those were being posted. I was ninja’d about 14 times while I was writing that, the thread was very very active. I had no idea what the people before me were saying. So that’s explained away, completely NAI. 

2. I suggest that if anyone was Vanilla they claim in the thread, as TJ is PAFOing all questions about it, and that piece of info is actually hugely important for role distribution predictions and analysis. I assumed this was a reasonable thing to suggest (and I still do), because Elims aren’t going to kill anyone that claims Vanilla, so it’s a very safe Roleclaim, and we only need a single person to claim for us to know that the role exists, so the Elims only cross off one person as someone who would be a bad target. Literally makes perfect sense to me, even now. Apparently it was suspicious to some people, and I can’t really refute this point because I still don’t see how it doesn’t make absolutely perfect sense. 

3. Illwei says “ok fine, I claim village, what now”, trying to prove....idk that a villager might fake-claim vanilla and so my plan was flawed? Well, I see absolutely no reason for a village to fake-claim village. Sure, it might make the Elims not target you, so maybe high-value roles would fake-claim vanilla, but just staying in the shadows and not claiming at all makes much more sense. Illwei does kinda make a good point, although, I don’t think it was the one they were trying to. Elims could fake-claim vanilla to throw off our analysis, when actually there aren’t any vanilla roles. So I say:
“ok then, we vote the village-claimers to see if they were telling the truth. It’s a messy solution, but the worst-case scenario (they’re actually a village vanilla) is still the best-case mishang (weakest and least valuable village role dies). And honestly, it’s D1, a best-case mishang is probably a safer bet than actually trying to find an Elim. On D1, the odds of finding an Elim are the lowest they’ll be all game, so this is the one cycle where it makes sense to hang for role-info.”
I can understand why people think this is suspicious, it’s a somewhat convoluted plan, and there are one or two holes in it, but insane plans that seem like they shouldn’t work are literally my thing! Remember the PM chain? (And despite all the confusion that caused, it did actually work.) Or the time I suggested we use one time pads in the thread, in-case PMs were removed? (Pretty sure this one is actually what made the ‘no ciphers at all’ rule a thing. We didn’t actually do it iirc, but the possibility that we could was enough I guess.) At this point, me suggesting a somewhat game-breaking plan to get around GM restrictions is practically Village Indicative. I’ve even done it in other forum games entirely. Anyone remember House IGHTEJYW?

4. The final point is that people just read my tone as ‘aggressive’ or ‘pushy’. I blame the medium, it’s harder to convey tone over text. I wasn’t trying to be aggressive, but if you read my messages that way, I apologize. I don’t think tone alone should be indicative of anything though. NAI. 
 

So that’s my post. Trying to analyze myself objectively, and I came up with an NAI-Village read. 

I’ll preemptively answer a rebuttal to this: 
“What’s the difference between points 2 and 3? In 2 you say that the plan makes perfect sense, and in 3 you acknowledge that it has flaws. It’s a contradiction, and therefore you must be Elim.”

Point 2 is me saying that me suggesting the plan makes perfect sense. The suggestion is not suspicious or AI, it’s a reasonable suggestion. Point 3 is me saying that the plan itself isn’t suspicious either. There’s some crossover, but it’s clear enough.

Edited January 15, 2021 by Dannex

[Gears]

7 hours ago, Illwei said:

Just going to comment that I...think this is terrible...reasoning...

Sorry, used the wrong pronoun/was too vague. I meant Matrim was not particularly suspicious if Danex flips vil. Note Ash's vote for the future. No reasoning. 

To Jam: Relax, my good friend. We are a very fluffy site. Pure cottonballs and clouds.