Long Game 68: Studies of Ashyn

[Sart]

I think the biggest problem is a lack of voting. It's hard to discuss suspicions when no one is willing to put theirs out there.

[Lahilt]

@Illwei You had expressed suspicion of mist and Pyro. Now that Mist is dead and Pyro has a few votes, are you still willing to lynch Pyro?

16 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Are blackouts usually this quiet? There doesn't seem to be anything to talk about.

Hmm.

lynch discussion, game mechanic theorys, player analysis. 

It would be nice to know if/how diseases spread, what are the backgrounds for,

[+Lotus]

I’m suspicious of Ashbringer and Matrim a little bit. Other then that, I don’t really have much opinions. This is a very strange game.

[Lahilt]

23 minutes ago, Sart said:

I think the biggest problem is a lack of voting. It's hard to discuss suspicions when no one is willing to put theirs out there.

Agreed, it only hurts the village when the villagers do not vote, as it makes the elim votes more potent.

5 minutes ago, Lotus said:

I’m suspicious of Ashbringer and Matrim a little bit. Other then that, I don’t really have much opinions. This is a very strange game.

Can you voice the reasoning behind your suspicions, do you have someone to vote for?

My vote last cycle was a poke vote on Devotary trying to get information.

I am not sure of my suspicions yet but I will vote later.

[+Lotus]

1 minute ago, Lahilt said:

Can you voice the reasoning behind your suspicions, do you have someone to vote for?

I guess I feel like Matrim has been a lot quieter then previous rounds. It could be just the way this round is, but idk.

Ash, I guess I feel like some people are trusting them when I don’t see a reason too.

[Lahilt]

 I guess I am suspicious of Illwei who seems to be inconsistent in some of their posts, although I have to go back and confirm some stuff.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Okay, lots of suspicion on me.

For the diseases, if they spread, I reasoned that there are two/three ways that transmission might work: PMs, votes, and action targets. As the second was unlikely, I attempted to minimize contact through the other two.

[Gears]

1 minute ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Okay, lots of suspicion on me.

For the diseases, if they spread, I reasoned that there are two/three ways that transmission might work: PMs, votes, and action targets. As the second was unlikely, I attempted to minimize contact through the other two.

Does this mean that you have an action as you are capable of minimising that vector of transmission?

[Lahilt]

5 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Okay, lots of suspicion on me.

For the diseases, if they spread, I reasoned that there are two/three ways that transmission might work: PMs, votes, and action targets. As the second was unlikely, I attempted to minimize contact through the other two.

With silburs ability to remove diseases every day, I think some form of spread is likely.

[The Young Pyromancer]

6 minutes ago, Gears said:

Does this mean that you have an action as you are capable of minimising that vector of transmission?

Nope. 

Well, I have an action now, but I didn't before. So much for minimizing transmission .

It's not a very good one though.

Also, how do people feel about tracking diseases publicly? Silber's death could be REALLY BAD for us, and public tracking could help us determine what the vector of transmission for various things is.

[Sart]

Vote Count:
Mint (1): Sart
Pyro (2): Kas, Gears
Gears (1): Striker

I'm not too concerned about minimizing disease vectors. We've seen two diseases that have very minor, if any downsides. A kill that kills yourself is less than ideal, but not actively harmful. Removing diseases removes any restrictions, although it may remove powers as well. We've also had people claim an inability to PM as a side effect of their disease. That's annoying, but not all that bad. All told, I'm down with the sickness.

We should be focusing on placing down votes. Several people have stated that they have a vote target in mind, but are holding off for some reason. There's no certainty in a game of mafia, so why not place the vote now? If you want to change it, that's perfectly fine. If you become more convinced of that person's guilt, you can elaborate by quoting more of their posts. It's a win/win.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Just now, Sart said:

All told, I'm down with the sickness.

And this was the issue with Ashyn. People thought the illnesses were fine, but stuff went down and the cities fell. I'm saying we should take preventative measures now. It's possible that diseases have 'stages', for one, with early ones being innocent, but it turning harmful later.

[Lahilt]

4 minutes ago, Sart said:

Vote Count:
Mint (1): Sart
Pyro (2): Kas, Gears
Gears (1): Striker

I'm not too concerned about minimizing disease vectors. We've seen two diseases that have very minor, if any downsides. A kill that kills yourself is less than ideal, but not actively harmful. Removing diseases removes any restrictions, although it may remove powers as well. We've also had people claim an inability to PM as a side effect of their disease. That's annoying, but not all that bad. All told, I'm down with the sickness.

We should be focusing on placing down votes. Several people have stated that they have a vote target in mind, but are holding off for some reason. There's no certainty in a game of mafia, so why not place the vote now? If you want to change it, that's perfectly fine. If you become more convinced of that person's guilt, you can elaborate by quoting more of their posts. It's a win/win.

Very well, I will vote on Pyro although I would agree to lynch Illwei as well. 

 

6 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

And this was the issue with Ashyn. People thought the illnesses were fine, but stuff went down and the cities fell. I'm saying we should take preventative measures now. It's possible that diseases have 'stages', for one, with early ones being innocent, but it turning harmful later.

Roles are usually good in Mafia and there is no reason yet to be afraid of these.

[---]

59 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

@Illwei You had expressed suspicion of mist and Pyro. Now that Mist is dead and Pyro has a few votes, are you still willing to lynch Pyro?

lynch discussion, game mechanic theorys, player analysis. 

It would be nice to know if/how diseases spread, what are the backgrounds for,

I am suspicious of pyro, but I am also suspicious of gears, so I don't know what to think. 
I am also slightly suspicious of Lotus for talking a lot but not actually saying anything, but I'm not sure if I feel strongly enough or it would matter if I voted on them.

EDIT: 

1 minute ago, Lahilt said:

Very well, I will vote on Pyro although I would agree to lynch Illwei as well. 

What's your suspicion of me based on? 

Edited August 7, 2020 by Illwei

[+Lotus]

Quote

 

Lucy walked into the lab. She was late, of course. Lucy had woken up with a pounding headache and had barely managed to stumble out of bed and get dressed. It felt better now, by a tiny bit. Not much though. She'd see if she could go home early.

As always, she had far too much to do today. Analyze several samples of bacteria, and make sure that the supervisors didn't figure out it had been her that had accidentally set off that fire yesterday. She'd get a talking too for sure.

"At least it's inside." Lucy thought "Remember that Sunburn on Taldain? That was a nightmare."

She got right to work analyzing the genetics of this particular bacteria strain, making quick notes, and trying to get through it fast. Light, but her head hurt. She was immensely glad when she could take her ten-o-clock break and sat down in an atrium full of plants from Roshar. They were beautiful, the shalebark, and that weird grass that pulled into holes! 

 

 

[Ashbringer]

I thought Ashyn fell to people with Surges getting puppeted by Odium. Or is was that what drove the original voidbringers out, then in Silence Divine something else happened?

Pyro raises a good point. We don't know what these diseases can do, and Silber's role existing (role erasure rather than roleblock) leaves me very very worried. Although he could be trying to generate discussion that doesn't revolve around him.

That being said, I want an action. 

[Straw]

15 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

And this was the issue with Ashyn. People thought the illnesses were fine, but stuff went down and the cities fell. I'm saying we should take preventative measures now. It's possible that diseases have 'stages', for one, with early ones being innocent, but it turning harmful later.

I feel like this is making a few too many logical leaps. You assume that diseases both spread and have stages.

[---]

1 minute ago, Straw said:

I feel like this is making a few too many logical leaps. You assume that diseases both spread and have stages.

17 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

And this was the issue with Ashyn. People thought the illnesses were fine, but stuff went down and the cities fell. I'm saying we should take preventative measures now. It's possible that diseases have 'stages', for one, with early ones being innocent, but it turning harmful later.

I'm not convinced that diseases can spread, but I do believe that diseases have stages

 

[Lahilt]

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I am suspicious of pyro, but I am also suspicious of gears, so I don't know what to think. 
I am also slightly suspicious of Lotus for talking a lot but not actually saying anything, but I'm not sure if I feel strongly enough or it would matter if I voted on them.

EDIT: 

What's your suspicion of me based on? 

Your posts seem inconsistent. Also interactions between you and pyro feel like a bus 

I have to go do some stuff now

[Araris Valerian]

42 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

My vote last cycle was a poke vote on Devotary trying to get information.

Have you now concluded that there is no actual pressure from poke votes and thus they are useless?

Thoughts: I'm still pretty happy to vote for most people. The vote manip last cycle makes me mildly more suspicious of Illwei. Seeing as there are already 3 votes on Pyro, I'll vote for Mist. I agree with Sart about the vote manip comments. I think in a V/E lynch that is close, if the elims have vote manip then they are likely to use it. Perhaps they would in a V/V lynch as well, but I'd say that's less likely. And the chances of a given random person having vote manip that they are able to use D1 to save themselves seems slim to me.

[Ashbringer]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Have you now concluded that there is no actual pressure from poke votes and thus they are useless?

Thoughts: I'm still pretty happy to vote for most people. The vote manip last cycle makes me mildly more suspicious of Illwei. Seeing as there are already 3 votes on Pyro, I'll vote for Mist. I agree with Sart about the vote manip comments. I think in a V/E lynch that is close, if the elims have vote manip then they are likely to use it. Perhaps they would in a V/V lynch as well, but I'd say that's less likely. And the chances of a given random person having vote manip that they are able to use D1 to save themselves seems slim to me.

I hate to break it to you... but Mist be dead.

[Mat]

52 minutes ago, Lotus said:

I guess I feel like Matrim has been a lot quieter then previous rounds. It could be just the way this round is, but idk.

Well, I have been. But so has everyone else, and IRL stuff is more busy this week for me. I guess part of it also is that most of what I say in other games is in response to others, and there hasn't been a lot of discussion thus far.

I got some time now, though, so I'll do a few quick reads. [I was ninja'd like 10 times, though, thanks...]

• Gears- I sort of agree with the implication that he's seeming to distract us, but there hasn't really been a lot to focus on in the first place. I read this more as a villager trying to generate discussion rather than an elim trying to divert our attention. Mild Village read
• Ash- I suspected them C1 for RPing a lot but not saying anything, but since then they've been a lot more discussion-minded. Null
• Pyro- The current lynchee, though I'm not certain how I feel about the reasoning. He's normally chaotic in every game he plays, so that kind of thing I view as NAI. Null
• Teft- Completely inactive, Null. @Teft the mosshead
• Araris- Just voted Mist instead of Mint, might want to fix that  but they seem to be contributing a fair amount, I notice they are agreeing with Sart, though I have a good feeling about their posts. Mild Village read
• TJ- Has been significantly quieter this cycle, but has not only roleclaimed in this game but also claimed that they lost their role, both things I feel an elim would be less likely to do. Mild Village read 
• Straw- I was going to tag him to post, but he ninja'd me above. Even so, too little material to properly analyze, so Null
• Mint- Had some thoughts on voting, but hasn't voted/been around that much. Null
• Lotus- I suspected them earlier for the same reasons as Ash, except they haven't done anything to remedy this. Lotus remains my strongest Elim read
• Illwei- My gut says Illwei is village but my analysis brain tells me he seems more elim. I'd consider voting him later, if he was a lynch candidate, but for now Null. I should and probably will reread his posts, though.
• Vapor- @Vapor should post more :P. Null
• Kasimir- Kas seems to be the same as the QF- giving suspicions, voting patterns- it's a bit hard to tell, with his playstyle, but I'll say Mild Village read
• Sart- Voting their suspicions, pointing things out, to me Sart seems to be genuinely trying to help. Mild Village read
• Lahilt- Lahilt jumped on the Pyro train with little explanation, which seems a bit suspicions to what I was already thinking about their voting this game. Mild Elim read 
• Devotary- Hasn't said anything this cycle, and little before. Null. (@Devotary of Spontaneity)
• Striker- Possibly tunneling on Gears, though the suspicion isn't terribly grounded. Null leaning on Mild Village

[+Lotus]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Lotus- I suspected them earlier for the same reasons as Ash, except they haven't done anything to remedy this. Lotus remains my strongest Elim read

Would you mind explaining this? I don’t remember your earlier reasonings.

[Mat]

6 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Would you mind explaining this? I don’t remember your earlier reasonings.

You have talked a lot but said very little pertaining to the discussion- For example, last cycle you:

1. Said you wanted to vote (but didn't)
2. Asked for a vote count, and when it was given to you
3. Still didn't vote

This sort of thing rings off to me since it looks like an elim wanting to appear to be contributing (posting a lot, wanting to vote, asking for a count) but in reality actually not participating all that much (not voting when they wanted to, lack of reads/discussion imput). I thought the same of Ash, but since then he has adjusted to contributing to the discussion and posting reads more.

 

Edited August 7, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[+Lotus]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• Said you wanted to vote (but didn't)
• Asked for a vote count, and when it was given to you
• Still didn't vote

That’s very true. I did want to vote, but wasn’t willing to commit to anyone. Nobody seemed suspicious to me.

Looking back, yes I should have voted (and I think I would have voted for Ash) but I didn’t.