Devotary of Spontaneity Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 7 hours ago, Kasimir said: j[OOC] What's the basis behind your distro guess? The 1/4 rule for Cultists? It's a nice guideline, I'm just curious about the underlying assumptions. I've been so far taking it as the need to lynch Jeskeri, but I realise that nothing in the win con says we have to bring those deaths about. We have guaranteed one Korathi Cultist, which means we have at least two Jeskeri Cultists. The Jeskeri Practitioners then need enough of a buffer that they can't lose majority in one cycle, so at least 5-6 of them. Since the Korathi are going to be dying at close to a 2-1 rate, there should be ~twice as many Korathi as Jeskeri, so seven Practitioners is too many. We need to personally kill Practitioners because so long as the Korathi Cultist is alive, the Jeskeri Cultists would rather die than let the Practitioners get wiped out. 2 hours ago, Elkanah said: Swung vote to Mint Cycle 1. That has really colored my reading. I currently suspect JP, but I need to check again. Why would I as a JP swing the vote to a Korathi, following the lead of two other people I would have known were Korathi? I really don't see the KC!Mint taking such a blatant anti-cultist stance in thread. I still suspect Matrim, but his voting pattern doesn't look super much like a JP. It's I think better than Mist, who I don't really see a good reason to vote for. It's too late to vote for Elk, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Illwei never voted for Drake. I'm very certain of this. In fact, Mist said last cycle that Jeskeri could vote on Jeskeri for distancing. Why are you bandwagoning? Oh dear, now this makes me doubt the Mist lynch, especially when considering who's voting it alongside me. Illwei, who I've suspected before, Bard, who wrongly suspects me with little explanation (that I see :P) and now Striker, who is one of Kasimir's- my only Korathi read- top suspects. However, in light of self preservation, my vote is staying where it is. Apologies to Mist in advance if this goes wrong, if it does, I will be voting Illwei next cycle. Edited August 1, 2020 by Matrim's Dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 Just now, StrikerEZ said: Sorry, I was typing that post in a rush and mixed up who voted for who. My point was that, no matter which of Illwei and Drake voted for who, if Mist is assuming they're both JP, why would they have also said JP wouldn't vote on each other? Where did they say this? I have her note that distancing is a possibility in the previous cycle. If there's a post, I'd love to see it, as this currently makes no sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 @Matrim's Dice, Matrim, Elkanah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrikerEZ Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 11 hours ago, Illwei said: I think it's interesting that you had nothing on me last cycle, but I mean, opinions change. I would like to bring up: that to look at me being JP based on the fact that Drake voted on me (I didn't seem to even be on your suspicion list beforehand) makes no sense to me, as another reasoning you have is that I speculated that JPs wouldn't vote on other JP, and I don't see why I would push so adamantly for that if I were trying to get JPs that I knew voted on other JPs lynched. if that very run on sentence makes any sense... @Kasimir This is from Illwei, and I assumed that they were telling the truth about this sentiment that Mist has expressed. Maybe they were wrong, or misrepresented what Mist said at some point? But why would they lie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 (edited) I'm too nervous about how people all of a sudden followed me on Mint, so I'm going to Mint, Matrim I guess you won't be voting on me next cycle so... EDIT: okay wait nvm about that maybe Edited August 1, 2020 by Illwei Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elbereth Posted August 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 I’m back from playing the harp for two hours and I have blisters ow Kasimir was Cultist-killed and was Korathi. Matrim fell to the Korathi Inquisition and was Korathi. Haelbarde fell to the Jeskeri Inquisition and was a Cultist. Vote Count Mist (3) - Matrim, Young Bard, Striker Matrim (3) - Sart, Elkanah, Illwei Elkanah (2) - Kasimir, Devotary Illwei (1) - Mist player list etc will be edited in when my grandparents aren’t insisting I come to lunch Right Now Oh and also re: posting notes and charts and stuff, that’s not technically an Official Rule (yet) but I as a mod would generally discourage doing so (I can explain why later if anyone wants) 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 (edited) Well it's been a few hours, and Matrim seemed to always be the first to post on a new day and break the ice, but he's gone, so I guess I'll say anything and hope more people talk here. Maybe more people will come when they get tagged though. Who knows. Well the JPs seem to have found at least one Cultist, and two more Korathi were killed, so assuming Devotary's er, distribution? prediction is correct, we are now at 3/3/2/1 - K/JP/JC/KC, so if we don't talk, then, with their docs, the JP and Cultists have an advantage, I think. Edited August 1, 2020 by Illwei is that enough commas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Young Pyromancer Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 Kas's death is annoying, but expected here I think. I'll look at his stuff once more now that we know 100% it was village. Hael wasn't too surprising, though it is a sign that if the Jeskerai had any sort of non-aggression pact, it is gone at this point. I am worried about the numbers at this point though, as all three factions appear to have the same number of members. Guess it's time to get working... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sart Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 Spoiler Cycle 1 Votes: Mint (5): Ash, Devotary, Gears, Matrim, Vapor Ash (3): Elk, Mint, TJ Pyro (3): Hael, Lotus, Striker Elk (1): Drake Matrim (1): Straw Straw (1): Sart Kas (1): Kas Cycle 2 Votes: Illwei (4): Ash, Drake, Gears, Matrim Ash (4): Elk, Illwei, Pyro, Sart Sart (3): TJ, Vapor, Hael Matrim (2): Bard, Kas Cycle 3 Votes: Vapor (4): Hael, Kas, Matrim, TJ Striker (2): Devotary, Mist Kas (2): Sart, Vapor Hael (1): Drake Cycle 4 Votes: Mist (3) - Matrim, Young Bard, Striker Matrim (3) - Sart, Elkanah, Illwei Elkanah (2) - Kas, Devotary Illwei (1) - Mist Honestly, I have no idea what's happening anymore. I think I'm just going to do a Contribution Crusade on Lord Silberfarben Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Young Pyromancer Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Sart said: Reveal hidden contents Cycle 1 Votes: Mint (5): Ash, Devotary, Gears, Matrim, Vapor Ash (3): Elk, Mint, TJ Pyro (3): Hael, Lotus, Striker Elk (1): Drake Matrim (1): Straw Straw (1): Sart Kas (1): Kas Cycle 2 Votes: Illwei (4): Ash, Drake, Gears, Matrim Ash (4): Elk, Illwei, Pyro, Sart Sart (3): TJ, Vapor, Hael Matrim (2): Bard, Kas Cycle 3 Votes: Vapor (4): Hael, Kas, Matrim, TJ Striker (2): Devotary, Mist Kas (2): Sart, Vapor Hael (1): Drake Cycle 4 Votes: Mist (3) - Matrim, Young Bard, Striker Matrim (3) - Sart, Elkanah, Illwei Elkanah (2) - Kas, Devotary Illwei (1) - Mist Honestly, I have no idea what's happening anymore. I think I'm just going to do a Contribution Crusade on Lord Silberfarben U died. No talkies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 1 minute ago, The Young Pyromancer said: U died. No talkies. Huh? Sart isn't dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Young Pyromancer Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 (edited) I thought they died and were disclosed as a cultist. Lemme check. EDIT: @Sart sorry, you’re not dead. My bad. Edited August 2, 2020 by The Young Pyromancer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sart Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 29 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said: I thought they died and were disclosed as a cultist. Lemme check. EDIT: @Sart sorry, you’re not dead. My bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 That's a lot of vote trains led almost exclusively by confirmed Korathi. All the C2 Ash voters being alive seems suspicious for that reason. Hael being a Korathi makes Sart and Pyro more likely to be Korathi I think, since Hael wouldn't have wanted Jeskeri to die, which puts Elk and Illwei as higher Jeskeri suspects. Elkanah was a decent Practitioner suspect last time, so we'll go with that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 I'd like to know what @StrikerEZ and @Young Bard think, as they just seem to have latched on to other peoples ideas every time they voted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Young Bard Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 Just now, Illwei said: I'd like to know what @StrikerEZ and @Young Bard think, as they just seem to have latched on to other peoples ideas every time they voted. If by "every time they voted" you mean "that one time they supported a lynch on Mist last cycle", then yeah, fair enough. I really don't like the last minute vote shenanigans going on this game - normally, I'd put it down to Elims trying to save their comrades, but it just seems to be everyone this game. But the fact that it's everyone means that it gives the Jeskeri more of a smokescreen. Votecount as of 30 minutes before rollover last cycle: Vote Count Mist (3) - Matrim, Young Bard, Illwei Matrim (2) - Sart, Elkanah Elkanah (1) - Kasimir Illwei (1) - Mist Striker votes on Mist, cementing their lead as the lynch candidate to a point where I'd have considered the lynch effectively over in a normal game. But this isn't a normal game, and things are just getting started just getting started. Vote Count Mist (3) - Matrim, Young Bard, Illwei, Striker Matrim (2) - Sart, Elkanah Elkanah (1) - Kasimir Illwei (1) - Mist Devotary votes on Matrim at 5 minutes before rollover, and then swaps from Matrim to Elkanah at 4:59, pinging Matrim to try and follow suit - if Matrim had, it would have resulted in a draw between Mist and Elk. However, it's in the final minute of the game, so Devotary might have pinged Matrim knowing there wouldn't be time to react and change their vote. Vote Count Mist (4) - Matrim, Young Bard, Illwei, Striker Matrim (2) - Sart, Elkanah Elkanah (2) - Kasimir, Devotary Illwei (1) - Mist In the final minute, Illwei swaps their vote from Mist to Matrim, resulting in a tie, and Matrim getting lynched. (Though Illwei likely didn't see Devotary swap from Matrim to Elkanah, so would have expected Matrim to be in the lead, guaranteeing Mists survival.) Final Vote Count Mist (3) - Matrim, Young Bard, Striker Matrim (3) - Sart, Elkanah, Illwei Elkanah (2) - Kasimir, Devotary Illwei (1) - Mist Illwei found the possibility of the vote on Mist accruing over the course of the cycle suspicious. If that's the case, wonder how I felt at reading two different attempts to save Mist in favour of a different candidate in the final minute. OK, there are a few possibilities here, depending on whether Mist's alignment. 1) Mist is Korathi If Mist is Korathi, then most of this is just chaotic players, and there's less that can necessarily be read into it. It could be that Illwei and Devotary are Elims trying to cast suspicion on Mist and target the focus of the thread onto Mist and away from Practioners, though I don't find that a likely option, reading through. 2) Mist is a Practitioner/Cultist in the Practitioner Doc If Mist is in the Practitioner Doc, I would say it's extremely likely that one of Illwei or Devotary being part of the same faction as Mist (though almost certainly not both). If I had to guess, I'd say Illwei is the most likely candidate, though I always struggle to read Devotary, so I certainly can't clear them. (Illwei might object that they were the first person to vote for Mist, but that in itself means that it could be a distancing tactic, rather than a genuine attempt to get Mist lynched, and why they later backtracked at the last minute.) 3) Mist is the Korathi Cultist One of Illwei or Devotary would likely be a Jeskeri Cultist, in that case. If that's the case, I'd expect one or both of these players to die to the Jeskeri Inquisition in the next couple days, and for them to flip Cultist. So, most likely according to Options 2 and 3, and with a possibility in Option 1, one of Devotary or Illwei is a Jeskeri (there's no easy way to tell what kind of Jeskeri they are, which is frustrating, but if we hunt for the people who we're fairly certain aren't Korathi there's a decent chance we'll find some Practitioners, and it's not really a problem unless we kill the Korathi Cultist, who the Practitioners have no way of killing). I'm tossing up between the two of them, and Mist - on the one hand, Illwei has been more suspicious throughout the game, but they also seem to have a more chaotic playstyle generally, which usually draws some suspicion. Devotary, on the other hand, isn't someone who I'd expect to pull these kinds of last-minute vote shenanigans as a Villager, so that makes them slightly more suspicious to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Young Bard said: [Devotary] on the other hand, isn't someone who I'd expect to pull these kinds of last-minute vote shenanigans as a Villager, so that makes them slightly more suspicious to me. I vote late because I keep setting myself up to only be around for the last hour before rollover, (and it looks like that's going to happen again). I didn't really see a vote on Elk to be plausible when there was only one on him and four on Mist, and wasn't too disinterested in voting Matrim. When I saw Matrim post, I thought it would be plausible to switch over to Elk, with the assumption that if Matrim didn't switch my vote made no difference and Mist was going to die anyway. Mist still could be a Practitioner, but I didn't see any strong reason to believe that was the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elkanah Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 That was an interesting train wreck of a cycle. I think I will Join Sart in voting for Lord Silberfarben. He has stayed active enough to avoid the filter, but is skating under the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrikerEZ Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 Well, this isn’t promising. I was expecting more people to get on before the end of the cycle. Silber. It feels like how he was playing some of the times we’ve been on teams and when he’s been an elim and is honestly my best bet right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mist Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 Hael died to the Jeskeri inquisition, so he must have been in the doc, so votes by elims don't necessarily indicate village alignment. That said, 2/3 voters on Pyro C1 were in the elim doc. Since it doesn't appear that the elims have been using the main-thread lynch, this encourages a village lean on Pyro for me. Devotary and Elkanah are the two voters in the C1 main lynchee whose alignments are unknown. I'm also confused. Here's hoping this goes well. Silber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 The Silber vote doesn't feel good, definitely not all Korathi. There's four votes for Silber, one each for me and Elkanah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sart Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 Let's spin the wheel. Lord Silberfarben turns into Elkanah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Young Pyromancer Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 Gah. This is looking REALLY bad. ...I'm feeling bad about this. Devotary or Elkanah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elkanah Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 Devotary. Lord Silberfarben Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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