Mid-Range Game 43: Death Comes As The End

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

13 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

@DrakeMarshall, I haven't been spending a lot of time on this game. I haven't been around for rollover, though I guess I could try to be, so I've wanted to make sure it wouldn't be necessary to move my vote. If I'd switched off Silber C2 or gone for Xino/Lotus C3, that vote would have been permanent and splitting the vote that way does risk a hammer. The risk might not be as much as I've suggested earlier as it's unlikely the entire elim team will be around for rollover unless a hammer looks plausible, but I've been unwilling to take that risk knowing there's nothing I can do to stop an in-progress hammer and not having strong enough suspicions to avoid voting for the person with the most votes.

Hmmm... I can sort of see where you might be coming from with this. At the same time I feel like it has to be the case that some elims are hiding behind the reasoning that you are defending yourself with, and you are one of not that many options for people who are doing that.

Alternatively, how do you feel about lynching Eternum? They might not be the most informative lynch (in terms of their own activity, at least), but the fact that they haven't posted and the filter hasn't taken them out yet strongly suggests to me that something fishy is going on there, and I'd say a very likely eliminator lynch is probably better than a gamble at this point in the game. What do you think?

Edited July 12, 2020 by DrakeMarshall

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

4 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

What do you think?

It's certainly suspicious, but I also don't see why elim!Eternum wouldn't have posted while submitting actions. Drawing attention to himself like that seems like a poor strategy. Putting votes on @Eternum might make him show up.

I ended up in the Garden, in case anyone still wants to know.

[+Lotus she/her]

I’m not sure if I want to vote Eternum for now, although it seems like a decent strategy. Rollover just happens to be right around the time I wake up, so I never know if I’m going to be up right before or after it.

 

[Mist she/her]

Quote

THANK YOU!!! 

We need to vote! Please! Please! Please!

This reaction, I believe.

C2:

Silber (6): Drake1, Araris2, Gears1, Devotary1, Mist2, Xino1, Burnt1

Vapor (3): Araris1, Lotus1, TJ2, Lahilt1

Striker (1): Mist1, Araris2, Windrunner1, Vapor2

Mist (1): Araris3

Devotary (1): Windrunner2

Araris (0): Vapor1

Gears (0): TJ1

Posting this now so the Shard doesn't eat it again. 

Edit: 

C3:

Vapor (7): Drake2, Striker1, Lotus1, Windrunner3, Mist2, Devotary1, Lahilt1

Xino (3): Gears1, Mist1, TJ2, Vapor1

Lotus (1): Orlok1

Windrunner (0): Drake1

Mist (0): TJ1

Devotary (0): Windrunner1

Drake (0): Windrunner2

C4:

Gears (2): TJ1, Striker1

Devotary (1): Drake1

Drake (0): Mist1

 

Oh, and I'd appreciate it if someone posted so I don't "have" to double post my multiquote.

Edited July 12, 2020 by Mist

[Lahilt he/him]

I have an Item that allows me to protect one person. I will randomly protect either MysticLotus or myself. 

I do not really like the lynch on gears. I think they are getting some exaggerated suspicion on them,  in which I think people are jumping on a small suspicion and try to make it big.

I will vote on Striker  

Drake I am somewhat suspicious although some of their reads are same as my own.

TJ Shade i am thinking a very slight village although i could totally see them be Elim.

Mist I have a fairly strong village feeling. 

study

 

Edited July 12, 2020 by Lahilt

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Gears(5): Matrim, TJ, Araris, Illwei, Mage
Lahilt(2): Mint, Gears
Mint(1): Pyro

Araris's lengthy multiquote analysis of single players isn't something he's done as a villager, but it also doesn't seem to be an elim thing either so it may just be a new strategy.

I think a lot of the reason I was feeling bad about Mage is how much he's focused on TJ being evil when I've been reasonably sure that isn't the case. At this point though, pushing for someone so many cycles in a row with little to no external support is starting to seem more village. 

If Gears is evil, I'd be curious to know who removed a vote from them but didn't do so from Striker D1. I think that's the main reason I'm hesitant about voting Gears. I couldn't find anyone who was definitely around for D2 but definitely not around D1, but haven't looked hard enough at when trains started to develop and when it seemed Striker/Gears were in serious danger.

As far as I can tell, Mint's vote on Lahilt is completely random, while Gears is holding out some hope of survival. I would rather not kill a random inactive at this point in the game.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Aight, for now, I vote Eternum. This is because 1) pretty sure people's reactions to the lynch will be / have been reasonably informative and 2) all things held equal I would rather lynch somebody who is adding less discussion and 3) they got another vote on them, and I'm not above consolidating votes, because totally scattered votes is not really any better than totally unified votes.

Vote Tally
Gears (2): StrikerEZ, TJ Shade
Eternum (2): MysticLotus, DrakeMarshall
DrakeMarshall (1): Mist

I know I said we don't want bandwagons, but I still definitely recommend voting, even if you're not voting for somebody who already has votes.

[Mist she/her]

On 7/5/2020 at 5:36 PM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Do you think the elims can win by hammering a lynch on the Secretary, or do they actually have to outnumber the village?

Devotary originally brought this up.

On 7/6/2020 at 0:21 AM, DrakeMarshall said:

4 or 5 sounds like a reasonable guess. The rule of thumb is usually 20-25% I think? So both 4 (22.22%) or 5 (27.77%) would be plausible. I'm going to be pessimistic and assume it's 5 for now to avoid nasty surprises in the future, but you're probably right about 4 being more likely.

3) Yeah thanks for reminding me of this. I remember this was one of the things I took note of when I was signing up. I'm gonna slightly village read you for bringing this up, because I think this is a fairly major concern for the village to be thinkin about. If the elims can ever get in a hammer, pretty sure we lose immediately. I'd really rather not risk that, even if the elims potentially have a harder time communicating between themselves in this game.

So this is the part where I push everyone to vote (surprise surprise, the guy who puts inactivity filters in his games based on voting every day wants y'all vote ). Once the voting starts, vote early and often. Three important facts:

• Even if we pile more votes on a single candidate than there are eliminators left in the game, that doesn't necessarily make us safe. If some of the voters for the top lynch candidate are also elims, then their switching to the Secretary will also leave the leading non-Secretary candidate with fewer votes.
• Probably the best way to guard against being hammered is having multiple candidates for the lynch who each have a lot of votes (ideally 5+ at this stage in the game). I know this is probably unrealistic of me, but it would still be fantastic if we could manage those amounts of activity.
• Please do not take what I've said as a license to pile votes on a bandwagon without reasoning to back it up. Imo it's in a similar category as trying to prevent vote manips, where it's maybe a contributing factor in deciding to vote for somebody but it's not really a good enough reason on it's own, because the same reasoning could apply to any other player you wanted to vote for.

Last point is important. Hammer discussion. 

On 7/6/2020 at 2:13 AM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Growlery(2): TJ, Xino
Study(2): Drake, Vapor
Kitchen(2): Lahilt, Striker
Lounge(2): Araris, Devotary
Garden(3): Mist, Lotus, Elbereth
None(7): Gears, Orlok, Eternum, Silberfarben, Burnt, Truthwatcher, Windrunner

If there were five elims, we would need at least six people with five votes to give a 50% chance of surviving a hammer, or five people with five votes with four elims, assuming they had been on separate people right before. We don't have nearly enough people to do that. 6 votes on three people is the lowest plausible number of votes on a person, and still gives a 50% chance of losing to a five person hammer. 7+ votes on two people starts getting safer. The good news is the elims probably don't want to immediately win for enjoyment purposes, even if the game did get reset. At least that was the case in LG 55, which I think was the last game with this mechanic.

A room analysis might be nice. Also, Devotary points out large numbers needed to defeat hammers, although if there was a 50% chance, I doubt the elims would risk it, since if that failed, they'd be outed.

On 7/6/2020 at 5:40 PM, DrakeMarshall said:

I'm also concerned by how hard it is to really protect against a hammer. Most D1 lynches don't see anywhere near enough votes to protect against that and idk I for one don't really love the idea of banking on the elims not wanting to end the game too soon. I'm... Honestly not sure if there's a good answer to this, or if there's something in the blackout setup that makes it harder for the elims to just end the game.

Soft village read on TJ because they thought kills only worked in the same room and I'm pretty sure an elim woulda made sure to know how their kill works.

I kinda think most of the posts were NAI it's hard to do analysis when there's no lynch discussion going down.

Uhhh @Lord_Silberfarben Lord_Silberfarben, what is your relation to Lord Talbot and what were you doing when Lord Talbot was killed?

Hammer discussion.

On 7/7/2020 at 8:48 PM, Gears said:

Striker died D1 in the LG, so I don't think he should be lynched. That would be unfair to him. Out of those with votes on them [besides Striker and myself], Lord_Silberfarben is an individual that I would be amenable to lynching. [Araris has provoked analysis, so he should remain]. If anyone would like to argue against this course of action, proceed but know that I will be asleep for the next few hours. 

Gears Striker team?

On 7/7/2020 at 8:57 PM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Silber(3): Drake, Gears, Devotary
Striker(2): Mist, Araris
Araris(1): Vapor
Gears(1): TJ

Hmm. I don't really want Striker to die D1 again. Araris could have posted that warning as an elim if the team had already decided not to hammer, but I'm not sure if the elims are even allowed to do that in their PM, and village!Araris is much more likely to be concerned. For TJ's vote on Gears, it's again unclear how much Kas will be cracking down on the elim PM about soliciting kill opinions, but elims devising a code in the secret PM for them to use in the room PMs is not sufficiently useful for them to prioritise having multiple elims in the same room. Also, I feel like Drake is village, though that doesn't mean Gears can't be. I don't really have anything on Gears, honestly. Only the last post has something other than RP, and Silber has been exclusively RP. Hopefully Gears will be around at some point before the cycle ends to reevaluate if necessary. I'll vote here for Lord Silberfarben, and will include RP, room vote, and potentially shift my real vote at some later time.

Edit: I know you're not supposed to edit in votes, but there's enough time until rollover that I feel it's okay to actually colour my vote for Silber.

Could be Devotary Striker team.

On 7/8/2020 at 5:44 AM, Lord_Silberfarben said:

ok, i will go full paranoia tin foiling here

Drake/mist?/gears/xino team.

but seriously, this can out of the blue, and seems a poke vote, yet they have not changed it.

hmm, another random vote on me, the only reason being that i already have a vote on me.

this could be an elim group just randomly voting on someone?

i forgot this, i really dont know who to vote, but of my 'suspects' mist has some votes on him

Silber analysis post.

On 7/8/2020 at 7:52 AM, Burnt Spaghetti said:

In that case Silber While I have been getting a more villager vibe from you and appreciate your willingness to respond in thread to people, its going to be better for us to consolidate the voting on one person rather than making it a tie and letting luck or hammers decide, even though i believe you'd be a player who would contribute well moving forwards. Hope that makes sense

The reasoning seems a little odd.

On 7/8/2020 at 9:06 AM, Gears said:

So there are roles. Interesting. If you have a role, do not claim without undergoing a serious investigation of the consequences. However, I still have no suspicions. I will go read over the previous cycles and return with more commentary. In addition, Araris told the people in the Study that he did indeed find something, so perhaps the killers have acquired it. 

Role discussion. Also, did he come back with commentary? I'll look. I guess. Reads weren't that cycle, C3, but he has other stuff, and reads this cycle, C4.

On 7/9/2020 at 10:07 AM, TJ Shade said:

Okay, so I promised I'll look into the players who have played with Araris long enough to fear-kill him so here goes:

Removing players who weren't active and didn't vote. 

Huh, all 5 of them voted on Lord Silber. I'm willing to remove Burnt from the list, because her last post feels village (also, no more pretty art if we lynch her ) . I'll also remove Drake because he voted for Lord Silber first, and wasn't there when the train formed on him. Otherwise as well, he seems to drive discussion and gives off a village vibe. Devotary seemed to vote on Lord Silber in response to the warning by Araris, so that's another name removed of the list. That leaves us with:

There could be a good possibility both could be elims. Not sure whom to choose over the other. Mist's response to Araris might be genuine, but also might be a little fake. Seriously, though I'm not used to active!Mist (in-thread), so that might be it. I'll vote for Mist now.  

But please,  guys discuss whom to lynch. Mention your suspicions. Give reasons, and defend yourselves. We need a consolidated vote in order to prevent a hammer. 

Weren't active does not equal didn't vote.

On 7/9/2020 at 11:06 AM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

In this game, not voting means we can instantly lose to the elims voting on the Secretary. We can't afford to get by on the few votes we had at the time I reminded the Lounge PM to cast votes. I voted for Silber because he had more votes than Gears or Araris and didn't want Striker to die D1 again, but I didn't tell anyone who to vote for.

I wouldn't have thought Araris the type to role claim an item, but apparently he did and might have gotten killed for it. Do you think that's a more likely reason for his death? There were only I think three other people in the Study at the time, Drake, Vapor and Gears. Any of those three, did Araris claim a useful item, that had an actual mechanical effect? Araris apparently said it was ironic, which could mean just an RP item that related to his cosmetic role.

Pointing it out again. 

On 7/9/2020 at 1:42 PM, DrakeMarshall said:

Re: Lynching Xinoehp.

I uh. I'm not really one to talk when it comes to making lists of people that are supposed to contain elims. But it usually doesn't work out very well for me.

I don't want to steal steam from a lynch that prevents a hammer, but we do need to be smart about our lynches. Basing one or more lynches on the assumption that we can figure out what the elims were thinking for a D1 kill might not be so swell of an idea, and I'm not seeing a strong reason to lynch xino outside of that reason (although I would still really like to see how @xinoehp512 responds to the votes when they show up).

But yeah me and Gears were I'm pretty sure the only ones who knew Araris claimed to have found something, for what that's worth. Didn't think it really mattered cuz I've found something every cycle and none of it's actually been useful so far, but I guess I could see how it might have been important cuz Araris was keeping whatever he found a secret (and apparently so is Kas, if such an item actually existed). I kinda don't think that elim!Gears woulda announced Araris' claim after he died, though.

Vapor. (@Vapor)

Wish I had a better suspect, but it's a little sus to plan for the lynch you're supporting to be a mislynch, and then have somebody ready to blame for it. It's true that villagers sometimes play the blame game, but it feels like you expect this to be a mislynch and you're still voting for it.

I think this is a better lynch than xino. Xino hasn't even had a chance to respond yet and the reasons for lynching them seem kinda vague and PoE based on a shaky assumption.

Achievement unlocked! Quote at least 10 posts in one post. On this post: talking about lynch, me, Xino, and Vapor. Vapor is missing in this post.

On 7/10/2020 at 3:54 AM, TJ Shade said:

yeah as I said, the vote is a bit meta, with me assuming a few things. Didn't really have a name in my mind when I began eliminating suspects. Just started PoE, and ended with Mist and Xino. But my main point with the post was to get at least one candidate with a comfortable no. of votes on them, and for voting and discussion to ensue. Which ended up happening which eventually lead to suspicion on Vapor, which I agree with. I'll not be shifting my vote though. I'd rather have two parallel lynches to see the votes getting on and off trains, and to see which player prefers which player to lynch, I feel it gives more info than one single bandwagon. 

Two trains is good. 

21 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

First things first, Eternum has been sneak-submitting actions, at least till C2. If he doesn't die by the end of this cycle, we can talk about him.

I also think not all elims would have voted for Vapor, and the only player who stayed on Xino besides me and Vapor is Gears, who also fits nicely with the 'new player killing off new players early' theory. Little suspicious of Lahilt as well, seeing as he voted at the last movement and just added to the bandwagon both the times. 

And I found an item that lets me protect a player for a turn from getting killed. It will stay with me if I target a person who is not attacked. I can target myself. It will not work on lynches. So, each cycle, I'll mention that I'll protect a person I trust the most or myself so that the elims would hesitate to kill either of us. We're 3 mislynches away from a lylo, so I doubt they'd try to waste 2 cycles to kill someone. I will protect Mist or myself this cycle. 

Eternum is concerning.

15 hours ago, Gears said:

You've neglected to take into account the possibility of Windrunner being harmful to the elims. Perhaps they got an item and were foolish enough to claim. In addition, your theory about new players being more likely to kill new players is flawed. You've assumed that new players would be willing to kill new players on the basis that old players aren't. I would argue that new players are less likely to kill a new player as they would empathise with the other new player and understand that the other new player knows just as little as they do, and thus would be harmless.

Your suspicion of me appears to be based off of your theory and the fact that I didn't vote on someone that everyone else voted for. This reasoning seems flimsy at best. Because I am a new player that didn't vote for someone that was lynched, I am suspicious. Do you understand how this reasoning is odd? 

I am mildly suspicious of Lahlit for consistently adding to the bandwagon at the last minute and of TJ for neglecting to account for the possibility that Windrunner was genuinely dangerous to the elims and was killed for it.

No items showed in the writeup. Dangerous is definitely a possibility. 

7 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Something about this post just feels off. Like you're trying to come up with a reason for why the elims can't be newer and why a newer player would behave in a similar way to an older despite knowing that TJ's mostly right. Gears. 

Makes sense. 

These are posts I noticed and wanted to point out, some with thoughts. 

 

3 hours ago, Mist said:

C2:

Silber (6): Drake1, Araris2, Gears1, Devotary1, Mist2, Xino1, Burnt1

Vapor (3): Araris1, Lotus1, TJ2, Lahilt1

Striker (1): Mist1, Araris2, Windrunner1, Vapor2

Mist (1): Araris3

Devotary (1): Windrunner2

Araris (0): Vapor1

Gears (0): TJ1

C3:

Vapor (7): Drake2, Striker1, Lotus1, Windrunner3, Mist2, Devotary1, Lahilt1

Xino (3): Gears1, Mist1, TJ2, Vapor1

Lotus (1): Orlok1

Windrunner (0): Drake1

Mist (0): TJ1

Devotary (0): Windrunner1

Drake (0): Windrunner2

C4:

Gears (2): TJ1, Striker1

Devotary (1): Drake1

Drake (0): Mist1

3/4 people on Striker at some point are confirmed village. Lahilt's vote last cycle wasn't on the main lynch, although most recent votes were on Vapor.

Windrunner voted on Devotary 3 times. Perhaps that's why they were killed.

I'm wondering if there's some combination if Striker, Devotary, and Gears.

 

Thanks, Lahilt. Also, thanks for voting and providing reads.

 

Read list:

TJ Shade: strong village.

Gears

@Orlok Tsubodai: he's viewed this thread. He posted and voted last cycle, pointing out that there was not as much talking as Lotus said. Neutral.

Striker: escaped the lynch C2. Posted once C3 and 4, voting on Vapor and Gears, respectively. I'd like to see more. Neutral leaning slight elim because of circumstances. 

@Eternum: suspicion, because they haven't posted, yet aren't dead yet. They haven't looked at the garden PM from cycle 2 yet.

@Burnt Spaghetti: I've seen her looking at the thread. She is looking at the thread. She voted Silber C2. Talked about items, elim kill. Neutral.

Lotus

Truthwatcher

@xinoehp512: voted Silber C2. C3 he asked why he was being sacrificed. He has posted other places, but not this thread.

Lahilt

Drake: neutral leaning village because they have posted reads now.

Devotary: Windrunner voted for them all 3 cycles, possibly why Windrunner was elim killed. Voted Silber C2, Vapor C3. Just noticed this, which could also apply to her. If she's elim, note this.

Quote

If village!Xino then elim?TJ isn't necessarily right, but it is something to consider whenever someone starts a vote like TJ did and doesn't have to mean elim looking for two dead villagers on subsequent days.

Quote

Araris could have posted that warning as an elim if the team had already decided not to hammer, but I'm not sure if the elims are even allowed to do that in their PM.

To be edited in once I post so the Shard doesn't eat my post: Lahilt, Truthwatcher, Drake, Lotus, Gears, TJ. Or reposted. Either way.

Lynch list: Devotary, Gears, Eternum, Striker.

Devotary

 

@DrakeMarshall, you didn't green your vote on Devotary, and I did green my vote.

Vote count: 

Gears (2): TJ1, Striker1

Eternum (2): Lotus1, Drake2

Devotary (1): Drake1, Mist2

Striker (1): Lahilt1

Drake (0): Mist1

Edited July 12, 2020 by Mist
Burnt, Devotary complete.

[|TJ| he/him]

I do not think lynching Eternum is efficient use of a lynch cycle. If Eternum last submitted an action in C2, he'll be killed by the filter anyway, so there's no reason to lynch him this cycle. If he doesn't die by the filter this cycle, then we can lynch him in the next. 

16 minutes ago, Mist said:

Weren't active does not equal didn't vote.

Yes, I didn't imply weren't active = didn't vote. I was just shortlisting people who weren't active AND didn't vote. 

3 hours ago, Mist said:

Quote

THANK YOU!!! 

We need to vote! Please! Please! Please!

This reaction, I believe.

@DrakeMarshall, indeed this was the reaction to Araris' rallying that I wasn't sure if it was genuine concern or elim exaggeration. 

1 hour ago, Lahilt said:

I do not really like the lynch on gears. I think they are getting some exaggerated suspicion on them,  in which I think people are jumping on a small suspicion and try to make it big.

 

Do you not think the elims split their votes rather than pile it on a single player? 

1 hour ago, Lahilt said:

I will vote on Striker  

Why?

4 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Rusts that bread looked tasty. Zachary hurried over to the Kitchen. (I mean I'm pretty sure it's one of the only rooms I still haven't visited so why not)

You need to retract the room votes as well. Green out your earlier vote on Garden. 

6 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Honestly, I gotta say that elim!Drake would probably be okay with killing a newer player. Certainly village!Drake is a lot more okay with lynching a newer player. Which I'm pretty sure Vapor was.

I was talking specifically about a player in their first game. Would you kill someone playing their first game early as well? Because it was Windrunner's first game, and he is the only debutant in this game. 

6 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

• TJ switches to Vapor. @TJ Shade could I ask what you meant by saying the Vapor-Araris interaction were "poke-votes gone wrong"?

I meant I thought their vote was initial distancing gone wrong. Araris used his usual "I always stab vote" reason, and Vapor voted on him for no reason at all. After this the discussion stalled, and they couldn't find a good reason to take their votes off. Specifically Vapor's retraction felt odd. 

Sorry if this post feels rushed. I'm a bit busy right now, but I wanted to get this out before everyone went off to sleep. 

[Mist she/her]

Room list this cycle:

Lounge: Mist

Growlery: Burnt, Striker

Garden: TJ, Lotus (Drake? Unretracted)

Kitchen: Gears, Drake (? Previous one not retracted.)

Study: Lahilt

Lounge Garden

Lotus and TJ are in the same room this cycle and should be next cycle. C3 Lotus followed TJ. C4 Lotus went to the master bedroom. C5 they should be, with Lotus following TJ. Is Lotus following TJ? Teammates? Elim following trusted villager? Villager following suspected elim? Coincidence + tinfoiling?

To be edited in once I post so the Shard doesn't eat my post: Truthwatcher, Drake, Gears.

TJ: tries to make sure Orlok and Eternum survive. Analyzes Araris kill. "Somebody has to start a unified lynch or we lose." Has item. Strong village, although my tinfoil hat keeps trying to come out.

Lotus: following TJ? Lahilt may protect them. Misrepresented PMs? They voted on Vapor for playstyle/RP reasons, and are voting Eternum at the moment. Mild suspicion.

Lahilt: planning to protect self or Lotus. Voted Vapor C2 and 3. Voting Striker. They were voting for anti-hammer purposes. Gave some reads; doesn't like Gears lynch. Neutral.

@The_Truthwatcher: has pek. Mentions lounge RP, suspicious of TJ because pushing Xino lynch. Hasn't voted at all, or posted this cycle. Neutral.

Should finish others in morning.

 

@TJ Shade, you may want to protect someone else, since I'll be gone for most of C5 and C6. 

Lynch list in order of preference: Devotary, Gears, Eternum, Lotus, Striker, Truthwatcher, Lahilt.

Edited July 12, 2020 by Mist
Lotus, Lahilt finished.

[|TJ| he/him]

7 minutes ago, Mist said:

Lotus and TJ are in the same room this cycle and should be next cycle. C3 Lotus followed TJ. C4 Lotus went to the master bedroom. C5 they should be, with Lotus following TJ. Is Lotus following TJ? Teammates? Elim following trusted villager? Villager following suspected elim? Coincidence + tinfoiling?

Yeah, I noticed this too. Makes me think she's keeping an eye on me for some reason. Weird.

8 minutes ago, Mist said:

TJ: tries to make sure Orlok and Eternum survive.

"Tries to make sure they survive" is a bit strong. I was just warning them that they'd be killed off if they do not post if they weren't aware of the filter. 

10 minutes ago, Mist said:

Lynch list: Devotary, Gears, Eternum, Striker.

Why Striker though? It seems your reasoning is because everyone did not want to vote for him in C1, but he had just been killed D1 in LG67, so I'd imagine the sympathy is warranted.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Usually it's always the most recent vote that's counted, regardless of whether previous ones were retracted in green. It's kind of implicit with the submission of a new vote that the old vote has been retracted. If Kas has indicated a preference for explicitly retracting votes though I will make sure to do so in the future.

Re: Lynch discussion. I put my vote on Eternum because it looked like nobody would side with a Devotary lynch, and I also kind of wanted to see if Devotary would defend Eternum. I think Eternum legitimately would be a good second-best option, if I could get more people to agree on that than on lynching Devotary. I'm a fan of voting independently, but a lynch isn't feasible I'm not going to waste my vote just to make a gesture.

But if a Devotary lynch is feasible, that's still my first choice. I doubt Lotus will be online to reconsider their vote, though. Something to be aware of. I am also not very optimistic about the inactivity filter dealing with Eternum in the long run, since so far it hasn't.

Vote Tally
Devotary of Spontaneity (2): DrakeMarshall, Mist
Gears (2): StrikerEZ, TJ Shade
Eternum (1): MysticLotus
StrikerEZ (1): Lahilt

Not gonna lie, I'm a little concerned that all of the people up with votes right now are all people I think are elim!teammates. Also, none of the people who have gotten votes have actually made votes of their own, which is a bit odd. It all feels a little too neat to me, and I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. Probably it means that some of my reads were wrong, but I can't tell which ones, so I'm staying my course and going with my best guess which is Devotary.

EDIT: Okay, I missed Lahilt's vote on Striker in my tally, which kind of breaks the pattern I was observing, so maybe nevermind? I'm not sure what that actually means but it's also getting late so maybe I look at this again in the morning.

EDIT2: Oh, and before I sign off, can I just reiterate that voter participation is highly advisable. I think there's 13 players rn and less than half of them have voted, and there's only like 8 hours left in the cycle, so yeah. That is all, goodnight.

Edited July 12, 2020 by DrakeMarshall
fixed tallybot to correctly track votes on Striker

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Kitchen.

I won't be around to check, but I do hope we have more votes than this by the end of cycle.

I'll vote Gears I guess, since it's the best option I have at the moment. If Eternum is still alive next cycle it would definitely be worth killing him.

The end, perhaps. Unfortunate if true. Beral would never get a chance to become a Faceless Immortal, fanciful as that dream might seem, if they died here. Exploring what lay beyond death might be interesting though. Not even Harmony knows what happens to those who meet their final end. Before that though, Beral would get to speak with Harmony, face to face, and thank Him for facing the suffering He knows He cannot solve without turning His back on the world. Perhaps Beral would live a little longer, but some day, even an immortal will succumb while Harmony endures.

[Gears]

In the interests of self-preservation, I shall vote Devotary. 

Augusta Christine was incredibly disappointed to realise that her fellow guests were listening to flawed and shoddy reasoning. Now, she was a potential candidate for death, along with another guest that she hadn't paid much attention to. This debate and kill philosophy would make an excellent plot point. Of course, it didn't seem like she would survive to write that story. 50/50 odds that she would die today. Truly a shame. 

She left her notepad in an unoccupied corner. If she survived, she would come back for it. If not, a servant would hopefully find it and notice that it belonged to the famous author. She'd had a good life. She was rich, famous, and wildly popular. She'd be remembered for a long time. Even better, she'd die as part of a murder mystery. All in all, this was fine.

Edited July 12, 2020 by Gears
RP

[+Lotus she/her]

Wow, I woke up before my alarm for once.

[Kasimir he/him]

You have slightly above forty minutes before the cycle ends.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

7 hours ago, Mist said:

 

@Burnt Spaghetti: I've seen her looking at the thread. She is looking at the thread. She voted Silber C2. Talked about items, elim kill. Neutral.

Looking the operative word been an open forgotten tab while I work on an assignment, which i only just got submitted, so i've not really been paying attention. i have not been super active have I >.> applogies. I had such plans too :[ I'll try do something arty next cycle too if I can, SORRY KAS I haven't forgotten my cosmetic role i swear >>

 uhhh okay whats happening with the lynch....

Devotary has 3 votes

Gears has 3 votes

And theres Eternum and Striker. at this point of the cycle its not worth adding another person into the pool.

And theres a tie. Do i want to break that tie.

ngl part of me just doesn't want to vote devotary because Drake doesn't seem to have a good track record with his lynch targets  

whys gears being voted on...? ah. Hm. I'm not personally convinced.

Im not convinced on either.

Ehhh... I'll abstain. Im not convinced on any of the options currently to want to add a vote. if theres any hammering attempts, i'll be around and can toss in a vote to interfere if possible but.  Ive not been paying enough attention or done enough analysis to feel comfortable making a decision either way. Do i think either of them are evil? Honestly? I don't really think so just from my gut feeling but again. I need to actually analyse stuff

sorry for not being particularly useful. Y'all welcome to bug me.

whos alive

TJ Shade -good vibes
Gears - i suppose some odd reasonings but nothing that screams eliminatory to me. Mildly good vibes
Orlok -been paying zero attention to you. hm. i dont know if that should concern me or not. Though rl's been rough for you recently so i'll give you a pass
StrikerEZ - seems aight. Though im curious from mists post around the idea of linking them with gears and devotary. could be an interesting thing if striker was evil
Eternum - ???
Mist - i think they're good. i think. sure?
Burnt - minimally active, hasn't done anything useful. hasn't found anything useful either. ive sent like one pm per room thing so far which for me is just depressing. how dar i not be an active pm'er!
MysticLotus - good vibes?
The_Truthwatcher -sure?
xinoehp512 - ???
Lahilt - has a protect, apparently using it on lotus. curious about why them. Teammate? extra info? just picked at random? is curious. Also why tell thread who you're protecting? id be concerned about elims taking that to mean that you are unprotected. Whereas just going "i have a protect item" makes you someone to steer clear of because they don't  know who you're protecting, whether its yourself or another. Now they know who not to waste a kill on is all, which means they might still have their kill go through. idk just my thoughts around that. I admire your bravery being honest to thread about that
DrakeMarshall -  Im cautious about you. You're talky. I feel like you're legitimately trying to find eliminators but iiii dunno. Talky people lead the crowds. Never trust the talky people. Neutral
Devotary - i appreciate their hammer caution?

TLDR: I dunno!  ill try reread all the things and actually properly analyse stuff if i can next cycle. pls bug me about that

actually who hasn't checked in yet (by that i mean posted in thread today)

Truthwatcher, Xino, Orlok (i see you viewing thread ), Eternum

 

hrm. 

I hope we dont get too many inactivity deaths in the next cycle or so... we reaally can't afford them.

[|TJ| he/him]

@Burnt Spaghetti, I'm voting for Gears because he was the only player on the opposite of Vapor lynch, and since I think elims are not likely to all vote for one players, it's a reasonable assumption to make that he's an elim. 

[Kasimir he/him]

The cycle is closed! Please stay tuned in an hour for the next cycle!

[Kasimir he/him]

Cycle Five:

The House of Lurking Death

Truth between us, I kept looking over my shoulder when I went about my duties. Ain’t right, that so many of the guests kept winding up dead. Makes a cove jumpy, it does. Fen used to say it ain’t paranoia when they’re out to get you. Don’t think he has it quite right. Yeah, maybe I’m being paranoid. But it doesn’t mean there ain’t a killer lurking somewhere in Lord Tal’s house, ready to ice me too. Now don’t that be a cheery thought.

Most of the guests were gathering in one of the public rooms or another. Never saw Lord Tal take guests into the Growlery before. ‘Fact, none of us were ever allowed inside. Don’t even think Lady Prissy had ever set foot into the Growlery, before this. See, Lord Tal kept the Growlery locked up tight. Was his private place, Lady Prissy told me. None of us servants ever got to go there, not even to clean. Lord Tal kept it all himself.

The Growlery was open, though, the night Lord Tal died. I went there. Keep an eye on the guests and all. There were scratches on the dull brass lock. Think someone might’ve forced the lock. Or tried to. Weren’t no sign of Lord Tal’s key. Lady Prissy said she didn’t know what happened to it. Said there were other things to be worried about. Like the fact there was some cutter in here with us, doing the killings.

Like the fact Phelan was dead, and so was the herb lady. The fact we were penned up in here. Just like the killer.

Anyway. The guests had begun to gather in groups. Can’t really blame them. Maybe they thought gathering together would keep ‘em safe. Killer can’t be everywhere, can they? Safety in numbers and all that. Everywhere though, they were scared. Whispering, staring at each other suspiciously. 

Like I said, don’t blame ‘em. I was getting pretty jumpy myself. Fair jumped out of my skin when someone called me. Turned out it was Lady Prissy. Said young Lord Aidan Ostlin hadn’t been seen for days, so could I please go look for him.

Guess this needs some explaining. See, young Lord Aidan be Lord Tal’s cousin. Bored young lordling ain’t hard to miss, even at a big party. But he went missing the night Lord Tal disappeared. I seen him in the lounge a while back, but then he was gone again. How does a lordling disappear in a house like this, anyway?

The guests were getting restless. I wasn’t there for most of it. ‘Cause if you remember, Lady Prissy had set me to searching for the lordling. I did drop in on some of ‘em in their rooms. I asked the noble lady with the book if she knew anything about the lordling. “I haven’t seen him at all,” she told me, but then she was preoccupied with defending her innocence.

Seems like some of the guests thought she was their killer. Don’t seem right to me, though. What sort of killer hides behind a book, anyway? She notices a lot, that lady. Asks a lot of questions. Seems to me she knows more’n she’s letting on. Still, I just can’t see her as a killer. Dunno why they’re wary of her, now.

The lawman, she’d said it was the Elendel lord. Something about his manner set her off. Can’t blame her. Those Elendel lords and ladies with their manners like satin and all that polish… And you never know what’s lurking beneath that, s’all I can say. How they smile like knives and look down their noses at you at the same time. ‘Cause we Roughs folk, we ain’t got their quality, if you understand me. And to them Elendel lords and ladies, like that poor dead noble girl, it’s always about their quality and who your mam and pap were, if you get my drift.

All the more fools, them.

Anyway, the lawman said maybe he was the one doing the killing. Said he was trying to find the killer. Same’s the rest of ‘em. He looked tired. Maybe he’s really trying after all. Wouldn’t hold my breath though. What do lords and ladies know about finding a killer, anyway?

I ain’t the sharpest tool in the box, but I reckon it’s foolishness, asking them guests to find the killer. Still, Lady Prissy knows best, I s’pose. 

I left the guests to it. As I went on in search of the lordling, I heard them fighting about whether it was to be the book lady or the Pathian. I ain’t no Pathian myself, but I reckon it strange. Most of ‘em I know ain’t much for killing. Couldn’t really see the Pathian talkin’ to Harmony and going on about the Faceless Immortals and then cutting throats, as cool as you please.

But, what do I know, right?

I heard the book lady cry out, as I left. Seems like they’d decided to take her in, after all.

I found the lordling, in what used to be Lord Tal’s bedroom. The sheets were clean and crisp. Guess the staff continued to clean the room. Or maybe he’d never slept that night, I don’t know. ‘Course, the sheets weren’t so clean and crisp anymore. ‘Cause there he was, all sprawled out on Lord Tal’s bed.

His eyes wide-open and staring. 

‘Course he was stone-cold dead. I never seem to find ‘em alive, these days. His neck was oddly disjointed. Someone’d broke it. Takes a strong rusher to do that. Figure it wasn’t likely to be the book lady, after all. She’s sharp, that lady, but ain’t likely to break a cove’s neck just like that.

I went and told Lady Prissy. Her lips pressed together just so, in this thin, unhappy line. “Lady Christine is dead,” she said. I stared blankly. “Lady Augusta Christine,” she said. I continued to stare blankly. “The famous noblewoman and writer,” Lady Prissy said. “Murder mysteries.”

“Oh,” I said. It wasn’t as if I read.

“Oh indeed,” Lady Prissy sighed. “She made an explosive debut,” a small secretive smile, “With Death on the Irongate. It really blew up most of the reading circles in Elendel.” I gathered that the story had something to do with an anarchist and a merchant House and a bomb.

“What happened to her?” I asked.

“Strangled,” Lady Prissy said, and sighed. “At least it wasn’t another flour-trap.” I winced. I ain’t the biggest fan of Lord Heron, but—Holy First Witness, it was an awful way to go. I never wanted to see another cooked corpse again.

‘Course, I should’ve known, Lady Christine’s death was the least of my problems.

Making things worse, someone’d found the Pathian, face down in a corridor, a knife through his ribs. Ain’t the best place to be stabbing a man, but he was dead enough, anyway. Then of course everyone got all riled up again. ‘Till now, death’d come in the rooms. Now, it seemed to lurk everywhere in Lord Tal’s house.

Some of ‘em were minded to just leave. Lady Prissy called for calm. Told ‘em about Phelan, which made ‘em all the more nervous. Told ‘em she ain’t trusting the killers not to run away, which didn’t please ‘em neither.

Anyway. That ain’t my business, though.

I laid the Pathian to rest in the coldroom and closed those staring eyes. I ain’t a follower of Harmony, but Survivor watch us all. Survivor see to it that his killer’s found.

Harmony ain’t done him a lick of good now, has he?

Lady Augusta Christine was lynched! She was a Guest! Further investigation showed she was in possession of a silver letter-opener labelled CUDDLES, a half-empty bottle of Estvaril whiskey, and a carved ancient thwacking stick with an 'A' worked into the knob.

Beral the Pathian was killed! He was a Guest! Further investigation showed he was in possession of an ornamental wood carving depicting the Catacendre, a pamphlet explaining Pathian philosophy, and a small battered leather message tube! (Single-use.)

Lord Aiden Ostlin was killed by the inactivity filter! He was a Guest! Further investigation showed he was in possession of a bottle of wine - an Ostlin special! (Single-use.)

The state of the votes are as follows:

Gears (3): TJ Shade, StrikerEZ, Devotary of Spontaneity
Devotary of Spontaneity (3): Gears, Mist, DrakeMarshall
Eternum (1): MysticLotus
StrikerEZ (1): Lahilt

The cycle has begun and will end at 2200hrs, (GMT+8) on 14th July. The next cycle will begin at 2300hrs (GMT+8) on that same day.

Please hang in there for room PMs and personal PMs results. This will take a while [=potentially another hour] as I have had less buffer time this cycle thanks to how close the votes were and the potential for last minute changes.

Edited July 12, 2020 by Kasimir

[Mist she/her]

TJ, why Striker: slight tinfoil/interaction with my other suspects. Also, all 4 people who voted on him at some point are village. 3/4 are confirmed because they're dead, one is me.

Drake analysis: hadn't posted many reads before C4. I'm wondering about his Eternum vote. He appears to be encouraging discussion now.

 

C2:

Silber (6): Drake1, Araris2, Gears1, Devotary1, Mist2, Xino1, Burnt1

Vapor (3): Araris1, Lotus1, TJ2, Lahilt1

Striker (1): Mist1, Araris2, Windrunner1, Vapor2

Mist (1): Araris3

Devotary (1): Windrunner2

Araris (0): Vapor1

Gears (0): TJ1

C3:

Vapor (7): Drake2, Striker1, Lotus1, Windrunner3, Mist2, Devotary1, Lahilt1

Xino (3): Gears1, Mist1, TJ2, Vapor1

Lotus (1): Orlok1

Windrunner (0): Drake1

Mist (0): TJ1

Devotary (0): Windrunner1

Drake (0): Windrunner2

C4:

Gears (3): TJ1, Striker1, Devotary1

Devotary (3): Drake1, Mist2, Drake3, Gears1

Eternum (1): Lotus1, Drake2

Striker (1): Lahilt1

Drake (0): Mist1

So, uh, Gears, Eternum, and Devotary died. I'm wondering which elim would submit a kill on someone tied for the lynch, unless it was a village vigilante. Except again, if they might die anyways, why submit the kill? This elim is probably not Lotus or Burnt, since they posted after Gears voted for Devotary.

 

Player list:

1. TJ Shade: village. C2: Gears to Vapor. C3: Mist to Xino. C4: Gears

2. Orlok: null. C3: Lotus

3. Striker: null leaning elim. C3: Vapor. C4: Gears

4. Mist: really? Village. C2: Striker to Silber. C3: Xino to Vapor. C4: Drake to Devotary.

5. Burnt: null. C2: Silber.

6. Lotus: slight elim. C2: Vapor. C3: Vapor. C4: Eternum.

7. Truthwatcher: null. No votes.

8. Xino: null. C2: Silber. 

9. Lahilt: neutral leaning slight elim. C2: Vapor. C3: Vapor. C4: Striker.

10. Drake: neutral. C2: Silber. C3: Windrunner to Vapor. C4: Devotary to Eternum to Devotary. 

I want more content! 

Without items, if there are 5 active elims, they could vote to lynch the secretary, resulting in a 50-50 lynch. If probability favors us, one of them dies, one if us dies. Rinse, repeat. With protection items, if the lynch fails, and their kill target is protected, they likely lose, unless villagers are inactive. If there is a kill item in the hands of the village, the lynch favors the village, then they likely lose.

I apologize again. I will be camping and am not expecting to have service, although I may. I should be back in the first 24 hours of C7, if the village lives that long and I survive that long. I have submitted my C5 action, so the filter won't get me.

Contribution Crusading might be a good idea. 

Drake, Mist, Xino, and Burnt remained on Silber. There is likely one elim in this group. TJ, Striker, Mist, and Drake were the four on Gears and Devotary. Probably one elim here too? Different people? Maybe Orlok's C3 vote was distancing? More of my random thoughts to follow, along with RP.

More random thoughts: one in Lahilt, Lotus, and TJ may be an elim.

 

RP: Lumen entered the garden again. She had noticed that adventurous naturalist following the thief. While the thief had stolen a few things, he wasn't much of a threat. Lawman Lumen knew how to keep her stuff safe, and she'd make sure he put it all back. Following them into the garden, she began to search for a place to hide. She'd watch and make sure nothing suspicious was going on, although she wouldn't talk much, of course, because she was hiding. Climbing the orange tree, Lumen cursed her skirts. "Infernal party wear." As she reached a good spot to sit, she stepped on her dress. Falling out of the tree, she blew her cover completely. 

Edited July 12, 2020 by Mist

[Kasimir he/him]

21 minutes ago, Mist said:

I apologize again. I will be camping and am not expecting to have service, although I may. I should be back in the first 24 hours of C7, if the village lives that long and I survive that long. I have submitted my C5 action, so the filter won't get me.

Since you've mentioned you'll be missing for most of C5 and C6, I'd give you the filter exemption anyway  I don't believe in punishing people for RL... Have fun, and happy camping!

[+Lotus she/her]

Ok... not a lot of discussion.

Uh... shall I ask if the master bed is comfortable?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1) I am very mad that 3 of my reads were proven wrong all in a single day 

2) I am very confused that the elims killed Devotary, who had a 50/50 chance of being lynched. The elims very nearly threw away their kill, which at this point in the game would kinda make a big difference. Whoever put in the order to kill Devotary can't have been online at the end of last cycle, and assuming they told their elim buddies what they were planning the rest of the elim team probably shouldn't have allowed Devotary to be tied for the lynch. I kind of don't think any of the elim team could have been online at the end of the last cycle, which is really useful information to solve this. It also explains a lot of why we've been struggling to find the elims, if a lot of them haven't been very active.

3) I am very pleased to report that I found an elim, since we kind of need a correct lynch today. Two cycles ago I dug up a rusted over metalmind in the Gardens that functioned as a single-use scanning item, and last cycle I used it and discovered that Xinoehp512 is an elim. That said, I'd rather this didn't kill discussion, because we still have a long road ahead of us. I'll be working on an analysis of all of Xino's prior posts to see who they are connected with, and see where that takes me.

That is all.

Edited July 12, 2020 by DrakeMarshall

[+Lotus she/her]

Well, this spices stuff up.

Xino is a elim, unless drake is... but that wouldn’t make any sense, as then the next round they’d be outed.

So... going to trust Drake for now.

Edited July 12, 2020 by MysticLotus