Kasimir he/him Posted July 10, 2020 Author Posted July 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, Gears said: Participation after death? Truly? This is fascinating. Possibilities: The dead can roleblock someone, the dead can kill someone [unlikely], the dead can give people items. General populace, theorize more possibilities! Ah, sorry, it's not participation after death, Lord Silberfarben wanted to do his own death write-up but just sent it in so I put it in this cycle's write-up instead. Items have been edited as I forgot to list what El had.
Gears Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Kasimir said: Ah, sorry, it's not participation after death, Lord Silberfarben wanted to do his own death write-up but just sent it in so I put it in this cycle's write-up instead. Items have been edited as I forgot to list what El had. So we have confirmed a lack of participation after death?
Kasimir he/him Posted July 10, 2020 Author Posted July 10, 2020 Just now, Gears said: So we have confirmed a lack of participation after death? Sure, why not. Death functions the same way as it does in a standard SE game, yes. 1
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 Sigh. Feels like the only times people follow the lynches I suggest is when I'm wrong. Anyway this game's probably churned out enough content by now for a comprehensive analysis. I'll be making one of those on this cycle. I'm a fan of mechanics to let dead players participate, myself But I wouldn't expect such mechanics to make their way into a murder mystery, barring fairly unusual circumstances. Does the geranium have any significance with the novels? For that matter, is there 1 or multiple killers in the novels?
Gears Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: For that matter, is there 1 or multiple killers in the novels? There was not multiple killers in the eponymous books, though there were in some of the others. The cycle names are titles of Agatha Christie novels/short stories. A brief summary of the Blue Geranium in the spoiler box. Spoiler Mrs. Pritchard sees a fortune teller who warns her about blue flowers and the full moon, stating that the Blue Primrose means warning, the Blue Hollycock means danger, and the Blue Geranium means death. The full moon occurs, and one of the primroses in the wallpaper has turned blue. The same thing occurs the next full moon with a hollycock. The next full moon occurs, a geranium turns blue, and Mrs. Pritchard is found dead with her smelling salts beside her. Ms. Marple realizes that someone put potassium cyanide in the smelling salts, poisoning Mrs. Pritchard. 1
Mist she/her Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 Drake. You have barely posted any suspicions. In LG 66, when you were village, you posted more reads. In LG 61, when you were an elim, you didn't post much. That may have been life, or elim playstyle. The same applies in QF 24. @DrakeMarshall Other Drake elim games to be examined later: lg 44, mr 28, lg 40, mr25, qf21. Lounge Did anyone make it to a different room? @The_Truthwatcher, @Devotary of Spontaneity. I know Lotus didn't make it to the master bedroom. More analysis later. Also, while it's nice that all of the threads are different, you may want to have someone merge threads and unpin the signup.
Burnt Spaghetti she/her Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 oops. my apologies on not posting last cycle >> if it matters to anyone i ended up in the garden Hrm. So thats what. 5 dead villagers now? And no elim deaths. thats concerning. How many elims were we thinking there were? probably like 3-5, though 3 might be too little. wouldn't want more than 5. so with there being 13 players left, the amount of villagers would be in the single digits for sure id say. Fun. well, we should at least have a better chance of trying to at least hit an elim by now right? Now i'm just wondering about the items that have been revealed so far. there was a once awakened rope, and now sharp plants? I'm gonna guess that the items we're told about had a use. hm. rope could've been a roleblock maybe? tie someone up or something? Elbereths sharp plant kinda sounds like could hurt someone. Glad thats something a villager had then. Sad to see El go though Though on the note of items. Have we actually seen any item in use yet? I'm just wondering whats out there. could there be alignment scanning items? if so that could be game changing. What about vote manipulation. Protects. hmmm. What about the elim kill choices? Sian Rohung.. whos that...ah, Windrunner. Anyone got thoughts about them being targetted? I need to go actually read through last cycle >.> oh. And before i forget again, growlery
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Mist said: Drake. You have barely posted any suspicions. In LG 66, when you were village, you posted more reads. In LG 61, when you were an elim, you didn't post much. That may have been life, or elim playstyle. The same applies in QF 24. @DrakeMarshall Other Drake elim games to be examined later: lg 44, mr 28, lg 40, mr25, qf21. Lounge Did anyone make it to a different room? @The_Truthwatcher, @Devotary of Spontaneity. I know Lotus didn't make it to the master bedroom. More analysis later. Also, while it's nice that all of the threads are different, you may want to have someone merge threads and unpin the signup. Seeing the kind of work you're putting into this I think it's fairly likely that you're a villager. Game was goin really fast in LG66. More pages of content to analyze in the first cycle of that game than some games see in all their cycles. Don't usually post full reads so early since I don't usually have that many reads until later. Would you like me to post reads? Kinda already said I would 2 posts up. Haven't really done good analysis for that yet though, imma do that tomorrow morning if that's all the same since I had stuff today. Keeping too quiet about my opinions isn't usually what my problem is I reckon give it some time and that should become fairly evident. Idk but if you're okay with it I'd ask you hold off on putting me up to defend myself until I can do that analysis I promised, and you can decide whether or not its to your liking. If you force me to, I'm pretty sure I can prove I'm village, but I'd be focusing on doing that instead of focusing on catching who the elims are.
|TJ| he/him Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 (edited) First things first, Eternum has been sneak-submitting actions, at least till C2. If he doesn't die by the end of this cycle, we can talk about him. 2 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: What about the elim kill choices? Sian Rohung.. whos that...ah, Windrunner. Anyone got thoughts about them being targetted? Now who would be so cruel as to kill off a new player in the 2nd kill-able cycle? I've seen all the old players I've played with till now advocate to letting the new players live for a few more cycles if they do not prove to be harmful, and I don't think they were particularly harmful. So.. maybe one of the new players? That would be Gears, Truthwatcher, Lahilt and Mystic Lotus. Of the old players, I'm quite certain that Striker and Orlok wouldn't do this. Don't know about Burnt. Unsure if Devotary and Drake would do this as well. Hmm, Drake has now led the lynch 2/2 times, though I'm not sure if it's AI as it's very easy to blame the person who votes first for a lynched player. I'm not quite confident in elim!Drake to pursue at this point of time. I also think not all elims would have voted for Vapor, and the only player who stayed on Xino besides me and Vapor is Gears, who also fits nicely with the 'new player killing off new players early' theory. Little suspicious of Lahilt as well, seeing as he voted at the last movement and just added to the bandwagon both the times. Haven't been out in the open, so Garden, here I come. Oh, and before I forget, @MysticLotus, was the herb you found given the same description as the one with El? And I found an item that lets me protect a player for a turn from getting killed. It will stay with me if I target a person who is not attacked. I can target myself. It will not work on lynches. So, each cycle, I'll mention that I'll protect a person I trust the most or myself so that the elims would hesitate to kill either of us. We're 3 mislynches away from a lylo, so I doubt they'd try to waste 2 cycles to kill someone. I will protect Mist or myself this cycle. Edited July 11, 2020 by TJ Shade
Gears Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, TJ Shade said: Now who would be so cruel as to kill off a new player in the 2nd kill-able cycle? I've seen all the old players I've played with till now advocate to letting the new players live for a few more cycles if they do not prove to be harmful, and I don't think they were particularly harmful. So.. maybe one of the new players? That would be Gears, Truthwatcher, Lahilt and Mystic Lotus. Of the old players, I'm quite certain that Striker and Orlok wouldn't do this. Don't know about Burnt. Unsure if Devotary and Drake would do this as well. You've neglected to take into account the possibility of Windrunner being harmful to the elims. Perhaps they got an item and were foolish enough to claim. In addition, your theory about new players being more likely to kill new players is flawed. You've assumed that new players would be willing to kill new players on the basis that old players aren't. I would argue that new players are less likely to kill a new player as they would empathise with the other new player and understand that the other new player knows just as little as they do, and thus would be harmless. Your suspicion of me appears to be based off of your theory and the fact that I didn't vote on someone that everyone else voted for. This reasoning seems flimsy at best. Because I am a new player that didn't vote for someone that was lynched, I am suspicious. Do you understand how this reasoning is odd? I am mildly suspicious of Lahlit for consistently adding to the bandwagon at the last minute and of TJ for neglecting to account for the possibility that Windrunner was genuinely dangerous to the elims and was killed for it. I am going to the Kitchen Edited July 11, 2020 by Gears
+Lotus she/her Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 6 hours ago, TJ Shade said: Oh, and before I forget, @MysticLotus, was the herb you found given the same description as the one with El? No, it is a different one, I believe.
|TJ| he/him Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 36 minutes ago, Gears said: You've neglected to take into account the possibility of Windrunner being harmful to the elims. Perhaps they got an item and were foolish enough to claim. I'd actually considered it, but I found it highly unlikely because Araris' death was heavily discussed in-thread, and it was heavily implied that he might have died because he confirmed the presence of an item. That should have discouraged anyone from doing so again. And, if it was an important item which had an action attached to it, it would probably have been revealed in the write-up. 38 minutes ago, Gears said: In addition, your theory about new players being more likely to kill new players is flawed. You've assumed that new players would be willing to kill new players on the basis that old players aren't. I would argue that new players are less likely to kill a new player as they would empathise with the other new player and understand that the other new player knows just as little as they do, and thus would be harmless. In theory? Yes. I'm sorry, but in all the games I've played, I've never felt like this. So I would disagree with this point, at least from my perspective. I've seen a lot for examples for the other way around though. Old players take it upon themselves to ensure new players do feel like returning to play the game again. 58 minutes ago, Gears said: Your suspicion of me appears to be based off of your theory and the fact that I didn't vote on someone that everyone else voted for. No, I'm saying the elims are much more likely to split their vote to avoid suspicion than to put it all on a player as that would be easily detectable and suspicious. The only vote on the opposite train is you. There's also me, but I would not have brought attention to that fact if I was elim. This is more predominating reason than the new-players-kill-new-players theory. If it was anyone else in your place, I would have voted for them overlooking the above said theory.
Lahilt he/him Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said: Seeing the kind of work you're putting into this I think it's fairly likely that you're a villager. Game was goin really fast in LG66. More pages of content to analyze in the first cycle of that game than some games see in all their cycles. Don't usually post full reads so early since I don't usually have that many reads until later. Would you like me to post reads? Kinda already said I would 2 posts up. Haven't really done good analysis for that yet though, imma do that tomorrow morning if that's all the same since I had stuff today. Keeping too quiet about my opinions isn't usually what my problem is I reckon give it some time and that should become fairly evident. Idk but if you're okay with it I'd ask you hold off on putting me up to defend myself until I can do that analysis I promised, and you can decide whether or not its to your liking. If you force me to, I'm pretty sure I can prove I'm village, but I'd be focusing on doing that instead of focusing on catching who the elims are. How is it possible to prove that you are village? 1 hour ago, Gears said: You've neglected to take into account the possibility of Windrunner being harmful to the elims. Perhaps they got an item and were foolish enough to claim. In addition, your theory about new players being more likely to kill new players is flawed. You've assumed that new players would be willing to kill new players on the basis that old players aren't. I would argue that new players are less likely to kill a new player as they would empathise with the other new player and understand that the other new player knows just as little as they do, and thus would be harmless. Your suspicion of me appears to be based off of your theory and the fact that I didn't vote on someone that everyone else voted for. This reasoning seems flimsy at best. Because I am a new player that didn't vote for someone that was lynched, I am suspicious. Do you understand how this reasoning is odd? I am mildly suspicious of Lahlit for consistently adding to the bandwagon at the last minute and of TJ for neglecting to account for the possibility that Windrunner was genuinely dangerous to the elims and was killed for it. I am going to the Kitchen My votes were mostly for antihammer purposes written hurriedly on my lunchbreak. I do find Windrunner to be a rather odd target as well. Does somebody have a list of what rooms who went to. If my quick scan over the last few days is correct, three dead villagers, Araris, Windrunner and vapor were following each other around from room to room.
|TJ| he/him Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, Lahilt said: How is it possible to prove that you are village? That is actually a very good question. xD Wonder how Drake can give conclusive evidence that he's village. I think he basically meant he could argue his defence. 11 minutes ago, Lahilt said: Does somebody have a list of what rooms who went to? C1: Lounge - Vapor, Devotary, Truthwatcher, Windrunner C2: Kitchen - Striker, Araris, Vapor, Windrunner C3: Garden - Vapor, Windrunner, Striker, Drake I think this should be right. 1
Mist she/her Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 10 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said: Seeing the kind of work you're putting into this I think it's fairly likely that you're a villager. Game was goin really fast in LG66. More pages of content to analyze in the first cycle of that game than some games see in all their cycles. Don't usually post full reads so early since I don't usually have that many reads until later. Would you like me to post reads? Kinda already said I would 2 posts up. Haven't really done good analysis for that yet though, imma do that tomorrow morning if that's all the same since I had stuff today. Keeping too quiet about my opinions isn't usually what my problem is I reckon give it some time and that should become fairly evident. Idk but if you're okay with it I'd ask you hold off on putting me up to defend myself until I can do that analysis I promised, and you can decide whether or not its to your liking. If you force me to, I'm pretty sure I can prove I'm village, but I'd be focusing on doing that instead of focusing on catching who the elims are. I agree with TJ and Lotus(?). That said, reads first is what I'm thinking. Also, typically, you "prove" you're village by catching elims. I have gardening gloves, two blue ribbons, and a blueberry pie. The gloves have something that could be earth or blood on them. No mechanical purpose for any of those three.
StrikerEZ he/him Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 7 hours ago, Gears said: You've neglected to take into account the possibility of Windrunner being harmful to the elims. Perhaps they got an item and were foolish enough to claim. In addition, your theory about new players being more likely to kill new players is flawed. You've assumed that new players would be willing to kill new players on the basis that old players aren't. I would argue that new players are less likely to kill a new player as they would empathise with the other new player and understand that the other new player knows just as little as they do, and thus would be harmless. Your suspicion of me appears to be based off of your theory and the fact that I didn't vote on someone that everyone else voted for. This reasoning seems flimsy at best. Because I am a new player that didn't vote for someone that was lynched, I am suspicious. Do you understand how this reasoning is odd? I am mildly suspicious of Lahlit for consistently adding to the bandwagon at the last minute and of TJ for neglecting to account for the possibility that Windrunner was genuinely dangerous to the elims and was killed for it. I am going to the Kitchen Something about this post just feels off. Like you're trying to come up with a reason for why the elims can't be newer and why a newer player would behave in a similar way to an older despite knowing that TJ's mostly right. Gears. Also, I think I'll go to the growlery this cycle.
Gears Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said: Something about this post just feels off. Like you're trying to come up with a reason for why the elims can't be newer and why a newer player would behave in a similar way to an older despite knowing that TJ's mostly right. Gears. Also, I think I'll go to the growlery this cycle. I'm not saying the elims can't be newer. I'm simply saying that there is no reason to assume that this behavior is indicative of new-ness.
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 Zachary Holcomb hopped up onto a stone bench in the Garden, studying the other guests from his vantage. "You will have to forgive my inexperience. I would expect the constabulary's response time in a town such as Bilming would be rather lackadaisical in comparison to the cutting edge enforcement we enjoy in Elendel, but it seems to me that they can't be that slow. Something must have gone wrong." He examined the faces. Who was surprised? Who wasn't? "My good Lords and Ladies," he continued in a grave tone, "I do not know the reason, but I do believe we should assume there will be no outside help in the foreseeable future. It is up to us to fix things ourselves. We must each play the part of amateur detectives, and solve the murder of Talbot Oswin." "But that shouldn't be a problem for any of you." Zachary's lip ticked up on one side. "Are we not Lords and Ladies of Elendel? Are we not the finest citizens the Basin has to offer? Truly, was there ever a people more well-versed in the ways of intrigue and conspiracy? Was there ever a people more equipped to solve a murder? As it is written in the book of the Survivor, there's always another secret. So let us ever keep searching." "Judge carefully, for I believe I have an answer to this riddle. The means and the motive for Talbot Oswin's murder. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Let us rewind back to when the late Oswin was found. Reexamine the evidence." Alright, I'm done with RP now. Point is, this is a murder mystery game and I'm pretty sure by now there should be enough information to solve it, if we're lucky and/or smart enough to fit the pieces together. I reckon we can win it. But with 5 consecutively dead villagers in a game of 18, you'd best believe the current is against us right now. But, I think how we got in a fix like this will be pretty telling. That goodness I'm not limited to 200 word posts anymore. Wouldn't be able to do this if I was. First, some responses: 10 hours ago, TJ Shade said: First things first, Eternum has been sneak-submitting actions, at least till C2. If he doesn't die by the end of this cycle, we can talk about him. Now who would be so cruel as to kill off a new player in the 2nd kill-able cycle? I've seen all the old players I've played with till now advocate to letting the new players live for a few more cycles if they do not prove to be harmful, and I don't think they were particularly harmful. So.. maybe one of the new players? That would be Gears, Truthwatcher, Lahilt and Mystic Lotus. Of the old players, I'm quite certain that Striker and Orlok wouldn't do this. Don't know about Burnt. Unsure if Devotary and Drake would do this as well. Hmm, Drake has now led the lynch 2/2 times, though I'm not sure if it's AI as it's very easy to blame the person who votes first for a lynched player. I'm not quite confident in elim!Drake to pursue at this point of time. I also think not all elims would have voted for Vapor, and the only player who stayed on Xino besides me and Vapor is Gears, who also fits nicely with the 'new player killing off new players early' theory. Little suspicious of Lahilt as well, seeing as he voted at the last movement and just added to the bandwagon both the times. Haven't been out in the open, so Garden, here I come. Oh, and before I forget, @MysticLotus, was the herb you found given the same description as the one with El? And I found an item that lets me protect a player for a turn from getting killed. It will stay with me if I target a person who is not attacked. I can target myself. It will not work on lynches. So, each cycle, I'll mention that I'll protect a person I trust the most or myself so that the elims would hesitate to kill either of us. We're 3 mislynches away from a lylo, so I doubt they'd try to waste 2 cycles to kill someone. I will protect Mist or myself this cycle. Honestly, I gotta say that elim!Drake would probably be okay with killing a newer player. Certainly village!Drake is a lot more okay with lynching a newer player. Which I'm pretty sure Vapor was. Thing is, while it's really cool that we have so many newer players interested in the game (), the meta of protecting them comes from a time when there was only like 1 or 2 relative newcomers in any game. At least to me it doesn't feel quite as doable for a larger number of players. Sorry if that seems like poor form, but yeah. All things held equal, I'm still holding off on lynching newcomers C1, but when I was suspicious (wrongly, apparently) of Vapor I was okay with lynching them on what was effectively C2 of voting. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only "older player" who does feel that way. 2 hours ago, Lahilt said: How is it possible to prove that you are village? My votes were mostly for antihammer purposes written hurriedly on my lunchbreak. I do find Windrunner to be a rather odd target as well. Does somebody have a list of what rooms who went to. If my quick scan over the last few days is correct, three dead villagers, Araris, Windrunner and vapor were following each other around from room to room. Maybe I'm idealist, but I think that if I put enough effort to communicate what my thought processes are well enough, the truth should eventually become evident. Putting people up for lynch is imo one of the better ways of gauging their alignment, provided they are around often enough to mount a strong defense. As paradoxical as it sounds, I really don't think elims will defend themselves as fiercely as villagers will. At least to me, knowing whether the lynch is right or not kinda makes a big difference. It's a lot easier to find the flaws in an argument when you know for a fact it's false Not gonna lie, I'm getting a little tired of antihammer as a reason to stack votes on mislynches. Is that the only reason you voted? 1 hour ago, Mist said: I agree with TJ and Lotus(?). That said, reads first is what I'm thinking. Also, typically, you "prove" you're village by catching elims. I have gardening gloves, two blue ribbons, and a blueberry pie. The gloves have something that could be earth or blood on them. No mechanical purpose for any of those three. That's fine. If I haven't caught an elim in 1 or 2 cycles you have my permission to lynch me. But nobody's caught one yet so I think it'd be a pretty good investment to keep me alive until I can prove myself. Now that it's the weekend and I actually have the time, I want to do a day-by-day and very roughly post-by-post analysis. From the first voting day, since I kinda don't think D1 counts for analysis (kinda glad we got the chance to focus on RP, though, because the RP has regrettably dwindled after the first couple cycles). Cycle 2 TJ Shade reports where Orlok was randomly assigned and asks where others ended up. Other people reply with answers. Probably NAI for all involved. The amount of NAI content in this game feels a little concerning. Devotary talks about the possibility of secret doors. Probably NAI but it's a pretty cool idea at least. Mist poke votes Striker, Araris stab votes Vapor, Vapor votes Araris back, people decide on rooms to go to. Probably NAI. Especially since 2 of them are dead. A serious discussion occurs on the utility of a room in which to growl TJ votes Gears because they think Gears and I are following each other around. I really don't think the elims would be so flagrant but this also feels like the same brand of theorizing I've seen from village!TJ in the past so I'll cut some slack here. MysticLotus says their character suspects Vapor, which feels like kind of an odd way of distancing yourself from a suspicion when you're saying that OOC. Araris pushes to not lose the game to a hammer. Village read except that isn't helpful anymore. Gears signs on with the Silber lynch, making it the second vote on Silber. They explain they'd rather lynch Silber than Striker. While I don't think an elim would most likely cast the second vote on the person who gets lynched (they tend to be more cautious about that sort of thing in my experience), Silber and other non-Striker players who had votes only had 1 apiece so they weren't the only alternatives to Striker. Could be just a villager not really knowing who to lynch yet, or could be an elim not really caring who gets lynched yet, so I'll call it a wash. Devotary provides a vote tally and does kind of the same thing as Gears. Similar reasoning applies. I also don't think they could both be elims because in my experience elims avoid voting one right after the other like that. Mist makes this post in advice to a new player asking for voting advice: Quote If you've noticed anything suspicious, vote for that. If there's someone who's being helpful in your opinion, don't vote for them. Honestly, just please vote. We don't want the elims to hammer. This is just a pretty good summary of the village's priorities in the game, so I'm inclined to read it as more village, since an elim doesn't as strongly have those priorities in mind. Windrunner votes Striker. Feels pretty elimy how they do it but I guess not because they flipped village. MysticLotus is cautious about who to vote for. Which, kind of feels like what I would do as a new elim in the first cycle. But I also understand that it can be pretty hard for villagers to find a read at the beginning. If you happen to be a villager, I'd advise that it's usually better to get your thoughts out in the open, even if you don't feel very confident about them. You've probably thought of some smart things that we haven't Mist swaps from Striker to Silber. I don't like the development of the train, but I'll cut some slack because by now Striker and Silber are pretty solidified as the two main lynches, and they just realized Striker dies C1 a lot. I still wish that wasn't everyone's reason for lynching Silber, though, because that reason had nothing to do with Silber. Silber is confused about the secretary being a player. In retrospect, an elim would probably know how the secretary mechanic works, but hindsight is 20/20 and all that. MysticLotus votes for Vapor based on the suspicions of their RP character. I am a bit confused. @MysticLotus could you walk me through the reason for doing this? TJ switches to Vapor. @TJ Shade could I ask what you meant by saying the Vapor-Araris interaction were "poke-votes gone wrong"? Mist does a partial analysis/reads list which is a good sign. @Mist could I ask why Silber would look more suspicious if the secretary is an NPC, though? I don't really get how that works. Silber makes a post pretty much deciding they were doomed, which I think should have probably given people who saw it some second thoughts so I'm gonna look closely at what comes next. I get that people won't want to change the lynch on C1 when a hammer is a threat and we don't even know who to vote for, but usually at this point a lynch where the lynchee is online to the very end and knows they're about to die will see some doubt. Devotary posts RP and a room vote and doesn't comment on the Silber lynch. See above for why I find this a little suspicious. TJ comments that Silber hasn't even voted yet in response to Silber's final post. Which, is honestly a fair point. Also comments on Orlok and Eternum being inactive, and that they will die unless they've been lurking but still submitting actions. Which is interesting in retrospect since both of them are still alive and I can't remember either posting much. Orlok voted for MysticLotus last cycle, though. Silber theorizes that a bunch of people voting him are evil. I am quite sure that 2 of his reads were wrong, but it's pretty reasonable that at least one of the players who voted up Silber is evil. Windrunners vote on Devotary still strikes me as weirdly disingenuous sounding... Gears defends themself against Silber's accusation and says they have to vote for somebody and they'd vote for a different target if one appeared. Didn't look too likely that one would, though. Lahilt says they find Vapor more suspicious than Silber. @Lahilt could you explain what you thought was more suspicious about Vapor? Burnt gives a vote tally, which I like. They decide the lynch on Vapor looks sketchy and chooses Silber over Vapor, which given the context that Vapor hadn't had a chance to respond yet, seems like a fair decision. They say something at the end to the effect that they didn't think Silber was particularly suspicious but they wanted to prevent a hammer, which I don't like. Truthwatcher says something to the effect that they have no reads and they don't care who gets lynched so long as it isn't the secretary. This feels a little like an elim not wanting to commit to a mislynch (since we now know that both Silber and Vapor were guests), although on the other hand it can be hard to feel good about a read in the beginning of the game... @The_Truthwatcher I can sympathize, but the way to get reads off the ground is to start voting That is arguably a more important reason to vote than to prevent a hammer. We can't just not lose, we need to win, and the way we do that is by developing reads. Burnt announces the end of the cycle. End Act 1. Cycle 3 Gears reports that Araris said he found something. While it's quite possible that the elims targeted Araris for other reasons or for no reason at all, if they targeted Araris for an item, then it would have to be Gears who did it. But seeing as Gears announced that Araris claimed to have an item first thing in the thread, I kind of don't think Gears killed Araris. Kas makes some interesting clarifications about roles and items, which I still don't really understand the implications of. Are role and cosmetic role somehow linked? Gears puts in RP and room vote. Pretty NAI all-in-all. Discussion about whether we should reveal items we found. People seem pretty conflicted about the idea of sharing items but then they do it anyway. Nothing overtly alignment indicative that I can tell. Gears makes an interesting assumption about a piece of evidence in the form of a discarded contract being relevant to the killers. This is interesting because I would assume the killers probably already know the answer to whatever the mystery is in all these bits of evidence, although this probably isn't a strong alignment indicator on it's own. TJ theorizes that Araris was fear-killed. I kind of disagree with this on the principle that C1 kills are rarely that well thought out, but it's plausible that the elims could have perceived Araris as a threat. Somewhat like myself, Araris tends to make a point of voting independently, and if it was the elims intention to push bandwagons on villagers under the pretense of preventing hammers, I could definitely see how Araris could stand in the way of that. I'm hesitant to assume that the C1 elim kill wasn't basically random, but if it was targeted at Araris specifically, TJ's list makes a bit of sense for finding killers. I don't necessarily agree with crossing off Devotary or Burnt from the list, though. Gears does a vote-by-vote analysis of last cycle, which is an act that I will cautiously village read. Concludes that there isn't enough AI content out there, which feels pretty accurate, so I will village read that as well. Mist says some things to defend against TJ's vote. Seems mostly NAI to me but could I ask @Mist what you meant by saying "TJ, at that point, I was kind of panicking." Gears says TJ's list seems useful but they would rather lynch Xino than Mist and votes Xino. Mist says they don't see very much AI from Xino but still votes for them out of self-preservation. Says they will look for a reason to become suspicious of Xino, which kind of feels like doing things in the wrong order. TJ flips to Xino, which they already said they were okay with doing. Truthwatcher makes a comment about transporting suspicions from one game to another. I don't want to read into it too much but this feels very slightly village because I don't think an elim would probably have that problem? Orlok calls out MysticLotus for alluding to PM conversations that may or may not have been misrepresented by MysticLotus. I wish I had more content from Orlok to analyze, but I think Orlok spotting a discrepancy and suggesting a different lynch than what was happening already seems slightly village. Striker casts the second vote on Vapor for much the same reason as I did. MysticLotus defends themselves against Orlok's accusation. Their answer to me is a satisfying response to what Orlok said, although that pretty much just puts me back to not having a strong read on them. People put in votes to find other rooms. I don't think that's how it works (I think you'd need to use the Search action to find a hidden room) but it's a fun idea anyhow. Probably NAI. Mist says something to the effect that I haven't given enough reads. This is mainly because this game has more than it's share of NAI content, which is starting to concern me a little. I think you are also asking me why I am voting for Vapor when I had shared a village read of them earlier? I'm not really sure if that's what you're sayin here but pretty much I changed my mind after Vapor posted again. Devotary says they don't feel like a Xino lynch and decides to vote for Vapor. TJ shade justifies their PoE analysis as a starting point for discussion and arriving at a lynch. Fair enough. Lahilt votes for Vapor. On one hand, assuming 4-5 elims, this vote might have been needed to prevent a hammer, since I'm pretty sure Vapor ended up with 6 votes so if 2 of the voters were elims they could have hammered if it weren't for Lahilt. On the other hand, like I said before, "stopping a hammer" is reasoning that could be used to vote for anyone, and I'm a bit wary of votes cast with that as the only reason. Since this vote was only cast at the very end of the cycle, when it was unlikely that the lynch would be able to change off of Vapor even if Lahilt had wanted it to, I will give Lahilt some slack, though, since the timing of the vote means it wasn't really detracting from discussion. In summary, my experience of the last few cycles has been that there's been a fair amount of NAI conversation and a lot of sheeping to prevent hammers. I was originally very worried about the elims making a hammer. But what we're doing right now isn't workable, either. Piling many unreasoned votes on a single target, and then letting discussion of the lynch die because splitting votes could be seen as dangerous, is not helping the village. It's killing us as surely as a hammer might. I'm half convinced that was the elims plan all along, to win without using the hammer and use the threat of it as a smokescreen. I will personally make sure I am online around each rollover to detect and counter a hammer, if that's what it takes. But we need competition between lynches if we are going to progress in this game. I'm going to do what I can to create that. Player List: TJ Shade: Village read. I like the way they have taken initiative on discussion. Gears: Elim read. It feels like the elims are trying to jump on mislynches and steer the game, and the way Gears has been voting fits that pattern. Orlok Tsubodai: His voting on Lotus felt like a village move, but I'd really like more content to analyze from him, because personally I find it kind of hard to get a strong read on Orlok even when he has lots of posts. StrikerEZ: Not much of a read on him, really. Dodged the first cycle's lynch which might be indicative but not strongly, and appeared to have reached the conclusion of voting for Vapor independently of myself. Eternum: Has been inactive, as far as I can tell. Which is interesting because the filter hasn't gotten to them yet, so they've still secretly been submitting actions. I wouldn't be surprised at this point if one or more of the eliminators consisted of less active members. @Eternum do you have anything to say about the game? Mist: Probably village, based on the work they are putting towards solving the game. Kinda don't see an elim going out of their way to do their homework for suspicions and bring past games into it. Burnt Spaghetti: Not a strong read, overall. Did some villagery things and did some elimy things. MysticLotus: My gut leans slightly village, but I'm also slightly concerned because they seem like they've posted a lot and I still don't have a decisive read outside of what my gut says. The_Truthwatcher: My gut leans elim on them, but it might just be a newer player trying to come to terms with the game. I feel comfortable giving them more time, during which I will hopefully get a better grasp of their alignment. xinoehp512: The C3 lynch switched from Mist to Xino to Vapor. I don't feel like a lot of Xino's posts stick in my head. It raises my eyebrow a little when votes shift onto and off of somebody that quickly, but from examining the surrounding situation I don't think there was a hidden agenda there. Very cautiously village read, I guess? Lahilt: Mostly elim read for basically just supporting votes to prevent hammers, but they also might not be active enough to put more work into their votes. Devotary of Spontaneity: I originally strongly trusted them for bringing up the danger of an elim hammer, but now I'm second guessing. It's really starting to look like the elims wanted the village frightened of a hammer, and Devotary has been warning us of hammers and flying under the radar with bandwagon participation. I also don't really like how they approached the Silber lynch. I think the elim team are Gears, Eternum, Lahilt, and Devotary. Probably I'm not completely right, but I'd wager at least 2 of them are elims. Vote Tally Gears (2): StrikerEZ, TJ Shade DrakeMarshall (1): Mist I'd be okay with lynching Gears, but like I said, the lynch needs competition. I'm getting tired of how bandwagonny this game has been so far. Anyway, of the 4 people I listed, my top suspicion is probably Devotary. @Devotary of Spontaneity how do you plea? That is all for now. 1
+Lotus she/her Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: MysticLotus votes for Vapor based on the suspicions of their RP character. I am a bit confused. @MysticLotus could you walk me through the reason for doing this? Vapor shoved Sophia aside to talk to lord Talbot. Not the best of reasons, I know. I also felt that Vapor’s play style was different this round from last, although in retrospect I guess that is probably a combination of more experience and probably the more RP heavy round. Which reminds me: Sophia left the kitchen, munching on some fresh bread, and wandered back into the Garden , just in time to catch the tail end of Zachery’s speech. She swallowed the bread in her mouth and then began to speak. ”See, it’s like tracking down a mountain lion. Even the most skilled of em will leave signs. You just have to get your stuff together, follow the smallest impression in the ground, see the broken sticks. The issue is when a wolf passed through and muddled up the trail” Edited July 11, 2020 by MysticLotus
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 (edited) 41 minutes ago, MysticLotus said: Vapor shoved Sophia aside to talk to lord Talbot. Not the best of reasons, I know. I also felt that Vapor’s play style was different this round from last, although in retrospect I guess that is probably a combination of more experience and probably the more RP heavy round. Which reminds me: Sophia left the kitchen, munching on some fresh bread, and wandered back into the Garden , just in time to catch the tail end of Zachery’s speech. She swallowed the bread in her mouth and then began to speak. ”See, it’s like tracking down a mountain lion. Even the most skilled of em will leave signs. You just have to get your stuff together, follow the smallest impression in the ground, see the broken sticks. The issue is when a wolf passed through and muddled up the trail” I'm not sure how I feel about this since you didn't include the reasons about playstyle when you voted, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for now. "Interesting." They have fresh bread in the kitchens? Bugger. I'll be going there next. Chefs have been holding out on us guests. "You will have to forgive my inexperience with zoology, but I assume the mountain lion is what killed Talbot? What's the wolf in that analogy?" Edited July 11, 2020 by DrakeMarshall
Mist she/her Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said: Cycle 2 Mist poke votes Striker, Araris stab votes Vapor, Vapor votes Araris back, people decide on rooms to go to. Probably NAI. Especially since 2 of them are dead. Mist makes this post in advice to a new player asking for voting advice: This is just a pretty good summary of the village's priorities in the game, so I'm inclined to read it as more village, since an elim doesn't as strongly have those priorities in min. Mist swaps from Striker to Silber. I don't like the development of the train, but I'll cut some slack because by now Striker and Silber are pretty solidified as the two main lynches, and they just realized Striker dies C1 a lot. I still wish that wasn't everyone's reason for lynching Silber, though, because that reason had nothing to do with Silber. Silber is confused about the secretary being a player. In retrospect, an elim would probably know how the secretary mechanic works, but hindsight is 20/20 and all that. Mist does a partial analysis/reads list which is a good sign. @Mist could I ask why Silber would look more suspicious if the secretary is an NPC, though? I don't really get how that works. Silber makes a post pretty much deciding they were doomed, which I think should have probably given people who saw it some second thoughts so I'm gonna look closely at what comes next. I get that people won't want to change the lynch on C1 when a hammer is a threat and we don't even know who to vote for, but usually at this point a lynch where the lynchee is online to the very end and knows they're about to die will see some doubt. Cycle 3 Gears reports that Araris said he found something. While it's quite possible that the elims targeted Araris for other reasons or for no reason at all, if they targeted Araris for an item, then it would have to be Gears who did it. But seeing as Gears announced that Araris claimed to have an item first thing in the thread, I kind of don't think Gears killed Araris. TJ theorizes that Araris was fear-killed. I kind of disagree with this on the principle that C1 kills are rarely that well thought out, but it's plausible that the elims could have perceived Araris as a threat. Somewhat like myself, Araris tends to make a point of voting independently, and if it was the elims intention to push bandwagons on villagers under the pretense of preventing hammers, I could definitely see how Araris could stand in the way of that. I'm hesitant to assume that the C1 elim kill wasn't basically random, but if it was targeted at Araris specifically, TJ's list makes a bit of sense for finding killers. I don't necessarily agree with crossing off Devotary or Burnt from the list, though. Mist says some things to defend against TJ's vote. Seems mostly NAI to me but could I ask @Mist what you meant by saying "TJ, at that point, I was kind of panicking." Mist says they don't see very much AI from Xino but still votes for them out of self-preservation. Says they will look for a reason to become suspicious of Xino, which kind of feels like doing things in the wrong order. Mist says something to the effect that I haven't given enough reads. This is mainly because this game has more than it's share of NAI content, which is starting to concern me a little. I think you are also asking me why I am voting for Vapor when I had shared a village read of them earlier? I'm not really sure if that's what you're sayin here but pretty much I changed my mind after Vapor posted again. In summary, my experience of the last few cycles has been that there's been a fair amount of NAI conversation and a lot of sheeping to prevent hammers. I was originally very worried about the elims making a hammer. But what we're doing right now isn't workable, either. Piling many unreasoned votes on a single target, and then letting discussion of the lynch die because splitting votes could be seen as dangerous, is not helping the village. It's killing us as surely as a hammer might. I'm half convinced that was the elims plan all along, to win without using the hammer and use the threat of it as a smokescreen. I will personally make sure I am online around each rollover to detect and counter a hammer, if that's what it takes. But we need competition between lynches if we are going to progress in this game. I'm going to do what I can to create that. Player List: TJ Shade: Village read. I like the way they have taken initiative on discussion. Gears: Elim read. It feels like the elims are trying to jump on mislynches and steer the game, and the way Gears has been voting fits that pattern. Orlok Tsubodai: His voting on Lotus felt like a village move, but I'd really like more content to analyze from him, because personally I find it kind of hard to get a strong read on Orlok even when he has lots of posts. StrikerEZ: Not much of a read on him, really. Dodged the first cycle's lynch which might be indicative but not strongly, and appeared to have reached the conclusion of voting for Vapor independently of myself. Eternum: Has been inactive, as far as I can tell. Which is interesting because the filter hasn't gotten to them yet, so they've still secretly been submitting actions. I wouldn't be surprised at this point if one or more of the eliminators consisted of less active members. @Eternum do you have anything to say about the game? Mist: Probably village, based on the work they are putting towards solving the game. Kinda don't see an elim going out of their way to do their homework for suspicions and bring past games into it. Burnt Spaghetti: Not a strong read, overall. Did some villagery things and did some elimy things. MysticLotus: My gut leans slightly village, but I'm also slightly concerned because they seem like they've posted a lot and I still don't have a decisive read outside of what my gut says. The_Truthwatcher: My gut leans elim on them, but it might just be a newer player trying to come to terms with the game. I feel comfortable giving them more time, during which I will hopefully get a better grasp of their alignment. xinoehp512: The C3 lynch switched from Mist to Xino to Vapor. I don't feel like a lot of Xino's posts stick in my head. It raises my eyebrow a little when votes shift onto and off of somebody that quickly, but from examining the surrounding situation I don't think there was a hidden agenda there. Very cautiously village read, I guess? Lahilt: Mostly elim read for basically just supporting votes to prevent hammers, but they also might not be active enough to put more work into their votes. Devotary of Spontaneity: I originally strongly trusted them for bringing up the danger of an elim hammer, but now I'm second guessing. It's really starting to look like the elims wanted the village frightened of a hammer, and Devotary has been warning us of hammers and flying under the radar with bandwagon participation. I also don't really like how they approached the Silber lynch. I think the elim team are Gears, Eternum, Lahilt, and Devotary. Probably I'm not completely right, but I'd wager at least 2 of them are elims. Vote Tally Gears (2): StrikerEZ, TJ Shade DrakeMarshall (1): Mist I'd be okay with lynching Gears, but like I said, the lynch needs competition. I'm getting tired of how bandwagonny this game has been so far. Anyway, of the 4 people I listed, my top suspicion is probably Devotary. @Devotary of Spontaneity how do you plea? Drake Thank you, Drake. 1. It felt like Silber was pushing hard on the possibility of being the secretary to try to get out of the lynch. I suppose not wanting to die goes with both elims and village. It sounds like in your experience, villagers push against their lynch more and are more likely to be on until the end, so my gut feeling about this is wrong. 2. TJ made a comment about how he wasn't sure if I was overreacting to Araris, so I was trying to explain that some. Xino lynch: TJ asked if anyone would join him. I changed my vote later to someone for whom I had suspicion. Re: Vapor. The read change was fine. Mostly Vapor was your only read then, I believe. I've been trying to be around just before rollover to counter a hammer as well. Starting soon after rollover next cycle, I will be on a camping trip. If I have service, I will do my best to comment. I am not expecting to have much or any service. I should be back not too long after the rollover into C7. I am planning to send in a C5 action just after rollover. I apologize in advance for my absence during the majority of C5 and all of C6. I'm posting this to reduce the wall of text. Next task: vote analysis. I'm planning to reread past cycles as well. ... Lumen walked out of the kitchen. She hadn't found anything, although the cook had given her a blueberry pie. Eating it straight out of the tin, she noticed a servant staring at her. "What?" They walked away. After she'd had a quarter of the blueberry pie, she was full. Noticing someone walking towards the kitchen, she offered them the pie. Drake, want some blueberry pie? Edited July 11, 2020 by Mist Bad coloring.
+Lotus she/her Posted July 11, 2020 Posted July 11, 2020 32 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: “Interesting." They have fresh bread in the kitchens? Bugger. I'll be going there next. Chefs have been holding out on us guests. "You will have to forgive my inexperience with zoology, but I assume the mountain lion is what killed Talbot? What's the wolf in that analogy?" Sophia gave a smile and ate some more bread. “The predator that isn’t important. A distraction, dangerous if followed”
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 12, 2020 Posted July 12, 2020 25 minutes ago, MysticLotus said: Sophia gave a smile and ate some more bread. “The predator that isn’t important. A distraction, dangerous if followed” "Ah, I catch yer drift. Somebody that draws attention to the eye but isn't the killer. A sheep in wolf's clothing, if you will. Is there anybody you think this particularly applies to?" Rusts that bread looked tasty. Zachary hurried over to the Kitchen. (I mean I'm pretty sure it's one of the only rooms I still haven't visited so why not) 44 minutes ago, Mist said: Drake Thank you, Drake. 1. It felt like Silber was pushing hard on the possibility of being the secretary to try to get out of the lynch. I suppose not wanting to die goes with both elims and village. It sounds like in your experience, villagers push against their lynch more and are more likely to be on until the end, so my gut feeling about this is wrong. 2. TJ made a comment about how he wasn't sure if I was overreacting to Araris, so I was trying to explain that some. Xino lynch: TJ asked if anyone would join him. I changed my vote later to someone for whom I had suspicion. Re: Vapor. The read change was fine. Mostly Vapor was your only read then, I believe. I've been trying to be around just before rollover to counter a hammer as well. Starting soon after rollover next cycle, I will be on a camping trip. If I have service, I will do my best to comment. I am not expecting to have much or any service. I should be back not too long after the rollover into C7. I am planning to send in a C5 action just after rollover. I apologize in advance for my absence during the majority of C5 and all of C6. I'm posting this to reduce the wall of text. Next task: vote analysis. I'm planning to reread past cycles as well. ... Lumen walked out of the kitchen. She hadn't found anything, although the cook had given her a blueberry pie. Eating it straight out of the tin, she noticed a servant staring at her. "What?" They walked away. After she'd had a quarter of the blueberry pie, she was full. Noticing someone walking towards the kitchen, she offered them the pie. Drake, want some blueberry pie? 1. Thank you that makes a lot of sense now. 2. Hm must have missed that. Looking back, I take it this is the post you are talking about: Spoiler Quote There could be a good possibility both could be elims. Not sure whom to choose over the other. Mist's response to Araris might be genuine, but also might be a little fake. Seriously, though I'm not used to active!Mist (in-thread), so that might be it. I'll vote for Mist now. But I'm still confused. I can't find the response to Araris that TJ is talking about. I assumed it was a reaction to Araris dying, but I couldn't find one. This is probably a waste of time for me to follow up though since I'm already pretty confident it was a V-V interaction between TJ and Mist. I didn't realize you were showing up just before rollover, but I'm sort of glad somebody else was providing that safeguard until now. It would've been epic if that caught the elims by surprise and stopped a hammer in it's tracks. Zachary caught the scent of a most delectable confection on his way to the kitchen. A blueberry pie with only a few slices missing. And if there was one thing Talbot Oswin was good it, it was eating. He trusted the dead lord to have employed a top notch cooking staff, if nothing else. Apparently sensing his plight, the guest bearing the baked goods offered him the rest, which he gratefully accepted. Blueberry pie was very much in fashion, these days. Zachary privately suspected that it was because blueberry stains did not show as much on blue garments, but such suppositions were rather unflattering to the nobility, so he kept them quiet. He experimentally lifted a slice from it's placing on the dish and nibbled on it. The crust was delicious. (thanks for the pie I really hope you didn't poison it)
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted July 12, 2020 Posted July 12, 2020 @DrakeMarshall, I haven't been spending a lot of time on this game. I haven't been around for rollover, though I guess I could try to be, so I've wanted to make sure it wouldn't be necessary to move my vote. If I'd switched off Silber C2 or gone for Xino/Lotus C3, that vote would have been permanent and splitting the vote that way does risk a hammer. The risk might not be as much as I've suggested earlier as it's unlikely the entire elim team will be around for rollover unless a hammer looks plausible, but I've been unwilling to take that risk knowing there's nothing I can do to stop an in-progress hammer and not having strong enough suspicions to avoid voting for the person with the most votes.
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