Quick Fix 45: To Set an Example

[|TJ| he/him]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That. That’s the kind of analysis I wish I could do lol. I figured Ventyl might just be messing around. 

 
For TJ, he’s just staying quiet, something generally NAI depending on the circumstances but his regular playstyle is full-blown analyzation. I don’t really read elim from his posts, though. 
 

Thanks Matrim. As I said, I was largely focused on the LG, and I'm not good at C1 analysis. So I chip in whenever I feel like I need to say something, and remain quiet otherwise. You can see in LG66 that I was largely quiet in D1 as well. Now that we have something I can escalate to full blown analysis. 

[+Lotus she/her]

25 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

That's just how some people play. They don't like poke votes.

Yes, which is understandable. But it felt like a little too much...

[Straw he/him]

10 hours ago, MysticLotus said:

I’m a little suspicious of Straw, just because they seemed to be a little too opposed to people doing random voting. It seemed like maybe they were covering up suspicious by drawing suspicion to people who were randomly voting.

9 hours ago, MysticLotus said:

Yes, which is understandable. But it felt like a little too much...

Could you please point out where I was drawing suspicion to them? I certainly dislike random voting, but I usually do not find it suspicious if it is done early on. Later in the cycle however, I am far more suspicious of random voters, as they are not contributing to the discussion despite having plenty of information to go off of.

I wouldn't draw too much from Ventyl's post.

This cycle I'd like to hear a bit more from some of the people who were quiet on C1.

[Eternum he/him]

14 hours ago, Gears said:

An analysis on people who voted for Silber:

Straw: Didn't like Silber's flimsy excuse for voting Fifth and making the xino-Fifth theory. 

Vapor: Provides vague restated reasoning, could be new player syndrome.

TJ Shade: Didn't like the Fifth bandwagon.

The_Truthwatcher: Placed a random vote on Silber then never retracted it.

Pyro: Self-preservation vote.

Frozen Mint: Chose the most suspicious of the lynch candidates.

Devotary: Notes that the odds of either lynch candidate being an elim are low. Uses knowledge of Pyro's playstyle when an elim to decide who to vote for.

I don't think any of these votes are particularly suspicious, especially since Silber was behaving very suspiciously. Vapor's vote is the most suspicious, but as they are a new player, I will be lenient.

I sort of disagree. Let's look at the timeline of the Silber lynch, shall we?

The very first vote on them comes from Matrim. RNG poke vote, removed after Silber responds. Nothing of note here.

Then, after expressing a dislike for random votes, Truthwatcher places a random vote on Silber. Apologizes for it in the same message. This is the first vote to stick. A couple of hours later clarifies that they won't be online from then on so they wanted a vote out there. Talked about this last cycle, no need to rehash my thoughts. Truthwatcher then makes a second, near-identical post giving the reasoning behind their vote. Everything about the vote is weird, to say the least, but let's move on.

Then comes TJ, switching their vote from Xino to Silber. Responds to my read of them and I found their reasoning for voting Xino in the first place pretty insufficient, but I decided to let them off the hook and see how the whole thing progressed. Later, after Devotary not voting on Pyro based on Pyro's actions seemingly fitting their playstyle, TJ used that as a reason to stay off the Pyro train. Their reasons for voting Silber felt.. odd. That's mostly a gut read, but it also looked to me like they wanted to cover up the switch off of Xino by building off of the suspicions raised on the Fifth bandwagon. Silber was an easy target: Already had a vote on him and had made odd, possibly incriminating comments (that people would later latch on to to solidify the train).

Straw then looks more into Silber at TJ's prompting and, based off of Silber's response earlier, moves their vote off of Vapor and onto Silber. Straw's reasoning is solid enough, but with their vote Pyro and Silber become the only two options left.

Mint places a vote on Silber as well, deciding between Pyro, Silber and Straw. No real reasoning given. I don't like it, honestly. I'm also interested in hearing Mint's suspicions on Straw, as I didn't see them refer to that in the thread. I may just be too tired to remember right now, though.

Vapor votes Silber. Again, just like their other votes, it is very odd. At this point I'm not sure if they're new at mafia or if they're new at mafia and new to being an elim. Nothing to say that I haven't already.

Final vote on Silber is by Devotary, who talks a little about the meta of late vote swings. Honestly, nothing piqued my interest here. Very late vote, but she'd already stated her reasons for not voting on Pyro.

I didn't mention Pyro's vote because it's simply self defence, as you said. It's a little weird how he hesitated to vote in self defense, but eh.

Based off of all this, I'm feeling worse about TJ than anyone else. TJ Shade, any thoughts? (@TJ Shade)

14 hours ago, Gears said:

Matrim, Fifth is not soft-cleared as Silber had no information and could have hypothesized elim!Fifth with village!xino as easily as any other combination of alignments.

Very good point here. Silber and Xino's deaths mean absolutely nothing about Fifth's alignment.

Will post again later with some more thoughts, have been trying to put this post together for a few hours now but distractions keep coming up

Edited June 22, 2020 by Eternum
Grammer. :P

[Straw he/him]

@Ashbringer Why didn't you want to break the tie between Silber and Pyro?

@Eternum The one issue I have with that is if TJ is an elim, it would mean that Pyro is also an elim. If the vote trains were both village, elim!TJ wouldn't have cared about swinging the vote to Silber. I guess it could have been pocketing, but I don't think that's particularly likely. So, in this case wouldn't it make more sense to vote Pyro?

[Mat he/him]

13 minutes ago, Straw said:

@Ashbringer Why didn't you want to break the tie between Silber and Pyro?

@Eternum The one issue I have with that is if TJ is an elim, it would mean that Pyro is also an elim. If the vote trains were both village, elim!TJ wouldn't have cared about swinging the vote to Silber. I guess it could have been pocketing, but I don't think that's particularly likely. So, in this case wouldn't it make more sense to vote Pyro?

I'm not either of them  but here's my take on this.

If TJ is an elim, then Pyro also is presumed elim. Ash wouldn't of wanted to break the tie because they didn't particularly care about who was lynched, either would give the village info- which was where I was last cycle. This casts a village light on Ash, as elim!Ash in this scenario would've voted on Silber.

[Gears]

18 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Then comes TJ, switching their vote from Xino to Silber. Responds to my read of them and I found their reasoning for voting Xino in the first place pretty insufficient, but I decided to let them off the hook and see how the whole thing progressed. Later, after Devotary not voting on Pyro based on Pyro's actions seemingly fitting their playstyle, TJ used that as a reason to stay off the Pyro train. Their reasons for voting Silber felt.. odd. That's mostly a gut read, but it also looked to me like they wanted to cover up the switch off of Xino by building off of the suspicions raised on the Fifth bandwagon. Silber was an easy target: Already had a vote on him and had made odd, possibly incriminating comments (that people would later latch on to to solidify the train).

I don't see why the switch off xino is that suspicious. TJ voted xino because he saw a deviation from the playstyle he had observed in a previous game, and giving the mandatory voting, he probably wanted to get his vote on someone. However, the vote on Silber does seem strange. I looked over last cycle and it appears that TJ voted Silber because Silber didn't vote xino. I could see this being early game suspicions being reinforced by later posts, but Silber didn't seem especially suspicious to me [though seven people disagreed on that]. In conclusion, TJ is probably alright, but I understand your suspicion. If I don't find any other suspicions by the end of the cycle I might drop a vote, but I'll hold off for now. 

[|TJ| he/him]

After a psychologically draining cycle in LG, I'm half tempted to just rage-lynch Pyro, but I'll attempt to make some analysis. Before that, some thoughts on posts after I left.

@Straw, I don't agree with your read on Gears because you think a new elim player would be more cautious/ hesitant to post first. Gears seems largely enthusiastic about SE, being the first one to sign up, so it wouldn't be a stretch to chalk up their first post to enthusiasm. They could also be encouraged by their teammates to post as soon as possible if they were elim. 

17 hours ago, Gears said:

If Silber was an elim, I would hope that they would peer review everything before posting. If Silber didn't check in with their teammates before posting a tinfoil theory, then surely Silber's teammates would tell Silber to offer a better defense to salvage the best of a bad situation. This leads me to believe that Silber is a paranoid villager who is bad at making excuses.

This post very much feels like they peer review their posts with their teammates. They could possibly be using their knowledge as an elim that Lord Sil is a villager to gain a favor. 

14 hours ago, Ventyl said:

In all seriousness though, I’m sad that Xino is dead! I was looking forward to playing with the them as a fellow villager. I don’t think we gain any insight on who could be a possible elim. If you look at Xino’s post he never gave any suspicious, unless you count a “stab vote” as one. So unless Lahilt is an elim who is trying to mind game us, I don’t have an leads so far. But, if anyone goes back and looks through C1, try to find if people were reacting to Xino in a suspicious way. Though, Xino’s death could be the elims killing off an experienced player, which I don’t like! 

I find the xino bit more suspicious that the "I'm not elim bit". Why mention they were looking forward to playing with them? It looks like it came out of nowhere. Also, how would you know they were villager if they were alive and playing alongside you?

13 hours ago, Frozen Mint said:

I'm looking more suspiciously at TJ Shade. They're providing commentary here and there but it's almost like they're trying to look like a helpful villager while lying low and not really pushing things one way or the other. But that could just be their playstyle. I'm certainly not one who should be pointing fingers at players for not being assertive enough. I don't want to vote for them, but I do want to keep an eye on them.

Hmm? I suggested Lord Sil's lynch as an alternative to Pyro's lynch, whom you voted for by the way. Weird that you'd say I wasn't contributing in a real way when you voted for the player I suggested. It's also weird that in your previous analysis post, you gave me a mild village read saying I've been lying low but I'm less bandwagon-y and encouraged some discussion pertaining to Straw. What changed between the two posts? You claim I'm still lying low, but I've definitely been more active after your first analysis post as compared to before it. Reads can change obviously, but the reasoning you gave is odd and untrue. 

58 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Based off of all this, I'm feeling worse about TJ than anyone else. TJ Shade, any thoughts? (@TJ Shade)

I repeat, my vote on Lord Sil is not because they tinfoiled. Rather because they seem to choose Fifth over xino despite them believing they were a team, giving no reason why they chose Fifth over xino.
Mine was just the 2nd vote on them, and I did not prompt anyone to build on the lynch. I was waiting for Lord Sil to explain their reasoning on why they chose Fifth over xino. I only suggested an alternative lynch on Sil when prompted by Straw out of the pool of players he mentioned because I did not agree Devotary, Vapor or Lahilt were more suspicious than Lord Sil and the other player on their pool was Pyro, on whom the train was at the point. 

58 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Later, after Devotary not voting on Pyro based on Pyro's actions seemingly fitting their playstyle, TJ used that as a reason to stay off the Pyro train. Their reasons for voting Silber felt.. odd. That's mostly a gut read, but it also looked to me like they wanted to cover up the switch off of Xino by building off of the suspicions raised on the Fifth bandwagon. Silber was an easy target: Already had a vote on him and had made odd, possibly incriminating comments (that people would later latch on to to solidify the train).

Devotary told they do not believe Pyro is evil. I told the reason people were voting on him was NAI. And I reiterated that he could be elim, but not for the reasons he was being voted upon, and hence I did not want to get involved. 
You say the reasons for my voting was odd, yet you state Silber had made suspicious and incriminating statements. Isn't it natural for me to feel suspicion towards them?
If I was an elim, I really wouldn't encourage my team to choose xino as the elim kill, would I? That would obviously incriminate me since I've voted for both of them. 

Finally, I really wouldn't suggest starting a train on Lord Sil to Straw if I was an elim since I would know that Lord Sil would flip village and that would put suspicion on me. I wouldn't think any elim would start lynch trains since that would be too suspicious. They also wouldn't bandwagon onto the end since that would be looked closely as well. I'd look at the players who gave train an impetus, just the extra momentum to build up so as to say.

Edit: Was ninja'd by Gears. I didn't vote for Silber because they didn't vote for xino. I voted for them because they did not provide an explanation as to why they voted for Fifth above xino.

Edited June 22, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Gears]

18 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Edit: Was ninja'd by Gears. I didn't vote for Silber because they didn't vote for xino. I voted for them because they did not provide an explanation as to why they voted for Fifth above xino.

Thank you for clarifying. Question: Do you actively suspect me as an elim or just think that my status as a new player shouldn't beget me an immediate village read for activity and enthusiasm? 

[Vapor she/her]

Okay, here goes. This is just this round and a little bit of last round.

Gears: Doesn't want to suspect many people and evaluates continually to keep people updated. Second post

Straw: Dislikes random voting and participates plenty in discussion.

Matrim: Suspicious of Ventyl, paying extra attention to TJ and Pyro; First post

Ventyl: Blatantly obvious, says he is not an elim. Suspicious.

Mint: Thinks Ventyl was too obvious, couldn't be elim. btw, I'm a she, not a he.

Anyway...

Striker: I'm not really sure on this one.

Mystic Lotus: Suspicious of Straw, not much else this round.

Eternum: Has lots to say and put in to the discussion.

Shard of Reading: I don't have much to say.

TJ Shade: Says he will mostly stay quiet; also posts really long defense post.

Vapor: Everyone thinks I'm suspicious, and I'm not really sure about this game sooo... 

Well, that was terrible. I'm not going to post a vote yet, still waiting and learning.

Edit: Ninja'd twice

Votes:

TJ: Eternum

Ventyl: Matrim

Lahit: Ventyl

Mist: Striker

Edited June 22, 2020 by Vapor

[Mat he/him]

9 minutes ago, Vapor said:

Matrim: Suspicious of Ventyl, paying extra attention to TJ and Pyro; First post

I probably should clarify that I've accepted that Ventyl's insistence on his villagerness is NAI. I am still suspicious of his vote on Lahilt, though, and would like an explanation on that. (@Ventyl. This is like the third time I've pinged you for this)

[|TJ| he/him]

4 minutes ago, Gears said:

Thank you for clarifying. Question: Do you actively suspect me as an elim or just think that my status as a new player shouldn't beget me an immediate village read for activity and enthusiasm? 

It's the latter. I don't suspect you as an elim. Though I wouldn't put you in the village pile either. 

As for my vote this cycle, Frozen Mint gave a rather flimsy reason for their vote on Silber. They just said between Pyro, Silber and Straw they find Silber most suspicious, which isn't much. Their reasoning for their suspicion on me odd ( I can understand Eternum's reasons but not Mint's), and they were the 4th vote on Lord Sil, and out of all voters of Lord Sil (except Pyro who voted for self defence), I find them the most suspicious.

13 minutes ago, Vapor said:

TJ Shade: Says he will mostly stay quiet; also posts really long defense post.

I did not say I'll mostly stay quiet. I said me staying quiet during the first cycle shouldn't be alignment indicative. 

[Vapor she/her]

Okay that phrasing is better

Now I understand

Edited June 22, 2020 by Vapor

[Gears]

9 minutes ago, Vapor said:

Gears: Doesn't want to suspect many people and evaluates continually to keep people updated. Second post

I believe you have accidentally reversed my opinion. I do not want to trust many people. 

[Mat he/him]

22 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

It's the latter. I don't suspect you as an elim. Though I wouldn't put you in the village pile either. 

As for my vote this cycle, Frozen Mint gave a rather flimsy reason for their vote on Silber. They just said between Pyro, Silber and Straw they find Silber most suspicious, which isn't much. Their reasoning for their suspicion on me odd ( I can understand Eternum's reasons but not Mint's), and they were the 4th vote on Lord Sil, and out of all voters of Lord Sil (except Pyro who voted for self defence), I find them the most suspicious.

I did not say I'll mostly stay quiet. I said me staying quiet during the first cycle shouldn't be alignment indicative. 

This instantly starts up my gut elim detector :/. I don't really know why. It's a gut read. I'll try to explain it though :P.

I started off suspicious of Mint. But that has worn off, even if they in turn suspect me, to nearly nothing when I re-read their posts. They all seem reasonable and sincere. Additionally, I have really been liking Eternum's posts, frequently I have found myself agreeing with their noticings and such, and they find you suspicious. I don't really know if that is a reasonable argument but it's enough of a weird gut read plus me agreeing with those opposing you to change my vote to a path that might actually take off.  (Ventyl, TJ Shade)

Edit: @Straw, you mentioned that if TJ was elim then Pyro would also be elim. Would you rather lynch TJ, or Pyro, or neither? Would you rather tie it between those two?

Edited June 22, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[|TJ| he/him]

11 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

This instantly starts up my gut elim detector :/. I don't really know why. It's a gut read. I'll try to explain it though :P.

I started off suspicious of Mint. But that has worn off, even if they in turn suspect me, to nearly nothing when I re-read their posts. They all seem reasonable and sincere. Additionally, I have really been liking Eternum's posts, frequently I have found myself agreeing with their noticings and such, and they find you suspicious. I don't really know if that is a reasonable argument but it's enough of a weird gut read plus me agreeing with those opposing you to change my vote to a path that might actually take off.  (Ventyl, TJ Shade)

Well can't really defend against a gut read, but you have to be wary of people giving seemingly honest analysis as well. That's the best way to hid with the village, not laying low. 

I'll ask you a  couple of questions so that you can understand my reasoning.

1. Do you really believe none of the 7 voters for Silberfarben are elim?

2. If you do believe there is at least one elim, who do you think is the most suited to be elim? (Exclude me out because I'm trying to make you understand my reasoning)

Also, how can you vote for me based on my vote for someone else when the result of that vote has not yet been revealed? Just because you have a good read on them doesn't mean others cannot find them suspicious, and it doesn't do good to vote on them just because of a difference of opinion. 

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

1. Do you really believe none of the 7 voters for Silberfarben are elim?

Nope, and I don't think I ever said I did. You voted for Silber yourself, so I find this an interesting question to ask when you are defending yourself.

3 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

2. If you do believe there is at least one elim, who do you think is the most suited to be elim? (Exclude me out because I'm trying to make you understand my reasoning)

As Straw has pointed out, if you flip elim Pyro would look pretty bad. He also voted for Silber- though partly in self-preservation. Of course, if either of you flip village then this whole conspiracy gets turned on its head :P.

5 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Also, how can you vote for me based on my vote for someone else when the result of that vote has not yet been revealed? Just because you have a good read on them doesn't mean others cannot find them suspicious, and it doesn't do good to vote on them just because of a difference of opinion. 

Yeah, I suppose this is true. I'm not voting on you solely for difference of opinion- I've mentioned my gut and the comments of others- but it still is a nice call-out.

[Vapor she/her]

43 minutes ago, Gears said:

I believe you have accidentally reversed my opinion. I do not want to trust many people. 

Oops I didn't mean that sorry I just got mixed up

My bad

I'm just awful at this

Edited June 22, 2020 by Vapor

[|TJ| he/him]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Nope, and I don't think I ever said I did. You voted for Silber yourself, so I find this an interesting question to ask when you are defending yourself.

When I say I meant to make you understand my reasoning that reasoning would involve the fact that I know I'm not elim. Since I know I'm not elim, I know it must be at least one of the other six. Truthwatcher's was a random vote. Straw wanted alternate lynch options. Pyro voted out of self preservation. Devotary wanted to have a firm train rather than a Pyro-Sil tie. Frozen Mint's vote was the odd one out for me. I don't see how this reasoning is suspicious. 

I also don't see anyone talking about my defence against Eternum's vote. Doesn't any of the things I say there makes sense?

[Gears]

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

I also don't see anyone talking about my defence against Eternum's vote. Doesn't any of the things I say there makes sense?

I think your reasoning makes sense, and I am opposed to lynching you. Given that Pyro and TJ have been linked by TJ swinging the vote to Silber, I propose lynching Pyro since we suspected him of being an elim and his status as an elim would increase the likelihood of TJ being an elim. With only ~6 hours left in the cycle, we need to consolidate lynch targets, and I do not think TJ is a good one. His analysis and reasoning have been sound thus far, and I don't think lynching him without further evidence would be productive. If Pyro turns out to be an elim, we will lynch TJ. @The Young Pyromancer, I am voting for you. 

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Gears said:

I think your reasoning makes sense, and I am opposed to lynching you. Given that Pyro and TJ have been linked by TJ swinging the vote to Silber, I propose lynching Pyro since we suspected him of being an elim and his status as an elim would increase the likelihood of TJ being an elim. With only ~6 hours left in the cycle, we need to consolidate lynch targets, and I do not think TJ is a good one. His analysis and reasoning have been sound thus far, and I don't think lynching him without further evidence would be productive. If Pyro turns out to be an elim, we will lynch TJ. @The Young Pyromancer, I am voting for you. 

I still would like Straw's reasoning on this idea, as he mentioned it first. TJ Pyro. (Jeez my votes are bouncing around this cycle )

[Gears]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I still would like Straw's reasoning on this idea, as he mentioned it first. TJ Pyro. (Jeez my votes are bouncing around this cycle )

True. @Straw, your opinion on the Pyro lynch to determine TJ's alignment.

[Straw he/him]

55 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Edit: @Straw, you mentioned that if TJ was elim then Pyro would also be elim. Would you rather lynch TJ, or Pyro, or neither? Would you rather tie it between those two?

First of all, I don't actually like ties as end results, since I think randomness doesn't benefit us much.

I think that Pyro has been more suspicious, especially after I just looked through his posts again:

-We start off with a vote on Fifth, and Pyro is just sheeping my vote without apparently knowing why there's a vote on Fifth at all.

-Pyro then claims that his vote was "pressure" and retracts his vote. He also then claims that I'm suspicious, which is odd. This whole post feels like Pyro reacting to pressure, backtracking, and trying to divert suspicion onto me.

-He then claims soon after that his vote on Fifth was never meant to last, which doesn't make much sense either. I'm not sure if he ever explained this, but it feels odd to me.

-This is followed by a blatant appeal to emotion, where Pyro dramatically declares that his death won't be much of a loss, probably in the hope that people will think he's village.

-He then votes on Silber for self-preservation, and says that the Silber lynch train is suspicious. The amount of hesitation he expresses here seems almost like he's trying to set things up so he can divert attention away from himself D2.

So, Pyro.

On TJ and Pyro, I'd rather give TJ some more time to analyze and prove himself to us.

[theTruthshaper]

What I want to understand is that why did the elims kill Xinoehp512? Can we infer anything from that?

Edit: Also, can someone tell me what is NAI?

Edited June 22, 2020 by The_Truthwatcher

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

What I want to understand is that why did the elims kill Xinoehp512? Can we infer anything from that?

I've been trying to figure that out myself. I don't think Xino said anything important enough for the elims to kill him- though if someone else wants to go back and check they can. I don't have the time :P.

Speaking of which, I'll be absent for awhile. Probably will only post a couple more times before rollover.