Long Game 66: A Struggle for Power

[Experience he/him]

Just now, Elandera said:

I need to look at the specifics, but if Pyro was leading the charge toward Karnage, they're not likely both elims. Trying to vote on a teammate that late in the turn is a recipe for disaster. It could easily get out of control, especially when there were several people saying they didn't want to lynch Coda. It more gave me the impression that the Karnage lynch wasn't getting enough momentum to actually save Coda, so it switched to someone else that might. It's possible Karnage is elim, and that's part of why it didn't get momentum (maybe some of the others that followed the Hats train but not the Karnage train could have been trying to save him), but I doubt it's Karnage and Pyro. 

My understanding of the theory is that it's most people are Twinborn. The exemptions may be those roles that seem super powerful, such as Archivist (?). It is a role madness game, so I suspect a lot of people have a few options. I'm not sure why this is a hidden theory, as it seems pretty obvious to me, but oh well. 

It's the same reason I voted on you last turn. Most of it is a gut read, but a shift in your style near the end is what really gave me that gut read. I'll try to do some real analysis later, when I'm not quite so interrupted at work.

I'm guessing your meaning my start of doing game-related thoughts? Not really sure how that is suspicious, but ok.  

[Ashbringer he/him]

Between Pyro's own vote, my vote, and Drake's vote, the vote moved from 5 on Karnage and 0 on Hatz to 2 on Karnage and 3 on Hatz (tied with Coda).

*Looks at Mist's post* actually, it looks like Mist duplicated Drake's vote, which make it look like a 3-way tie between Karnage, Hatz, and Coda when Karnage should only have had 2 votes. Then Mist "broke the tie" and voted for Hatz. Hmmm...

Probably nothing. But I've already established myself as the conspiracy theorist, so what's another thing for people to wonder about.

Signing off for tonight, I'll be back in the morning.

[|TJ| he/him]

7 minutes ago, Elandera said:

It more gave me the impression that the Karnage lynch wasn't getting enough momentum to actually save Coda, so it switched to someone else that might.

There were quite possibly 4 votes at one point on Karnage to Coda's 3. There definitely was momentum. What's interesting to notice is that the first vote on Hatz was cast just 30 mins before roll over. In just half an hour Hatz had 4 (5 if you count Karnage's). Why change your vote when you have a perfectly fine train? What was wrong with Karnage as the lynch target? They gave the reason that they wanted to bring Hatz into the tie zone as well. But they didn't do that, they straight up transferred all their votes from Karnage to Hatz. 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

39 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

There were quite possibly 4 votes at one point on Karnage to Coda's 3. There definitely was momentum. What's interesting to notice is that the first vote on Hatz was cast just 30 mins before roll over. In just half an hour Hatz had 4 (5 if you count Karnage's). Why change your vote when you have a perfectly fine train? What was wrong with Karnage as the lynch target? They gave the reason that they wanted to bring Hatz into the tie zone as well. But they didn't do that, they straight up transferred all their votes from Karnage to Hatz. 

Because Drake wanted to not put Karnage up for lynch, and I respected their wishes, as I'm fairly sure they're village. Don't know about anyone else.

[|TJ| he/him]

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And another person is suspicious of me! I think that makes seven, although not all at the same time. All I can say is I am Village, I'm not very good at all this subtlety and alignment reading, and I was looking to make a larger tie than Coda-Karnage.

@Ashbringer, you said you voted to save yourself. Which one is it?

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He's also the one who started the Karnage lynch attempt, then shifted almost everyone who voted Karnage to Hatz. I haven't read into anything to suggest he's elim, but the entire vote shifted from Coda>Karnage>Hatz in the last 3 hours/pages of the cycle with Pyro at its head. 

I don't recall Pyro voting for Coda. Him and Drake definitely voted for Matrim who had three votes at one point. So the Pyro lynch train went Matrim > Karnage > Hatz, while there was a separate lynch train on Coda. 

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Ash is Village, Pyro is Elim: If this hypothetical scenario is the case, Pyro wanted to move a strong vote from Coda (a village) to Karnage, then to Hatz (who's probably also village). It could be a ploy to protect Karnage relying on his posting to sway my vote (he can confirm he didn't PM me about it). Could lead to Elim!Karnage. I still think unlikely.

Why do you think it is unlikely? It looks fairly likely in my opinion. There's that cancelled vote off Hatz that could have been soothed at the time the votes were on Karnage. 

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Ash is Village, Pyro is Village: If this hypothetical scenario is the case, then I suppose it takes the simplest explanation, where everything was just a bandwagon. Most people (myself included) would rather lynch someone completely inactive than someone who'd posted once to say they couldn't be active. Doesn't point to anyone in particular, although Elims could have joined the wagon to get a better lynch.

This is such a bad strategy. Why would you rather lynch someone who has given no possible indication as to whether they are village or elim? Granted not many people give such indication this early in the game, but something can be inferred from the posts here. Would you rather lynch a possible inactive villager than a possible elim suspect no matter who small the suspicion is? I'd imagine the elims would prod their inactive teammate to be a little more active. Going under the radar seems to be no. 1 suspicion for being an elim so they'd try to blend in. I'd reckon the chances of an inactive villager in C1 is much higher than an inactive elim in C1.

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Ash is Elim, Pyro is Elim: If this hypothetical scenario is the case, then the elims did a very poor job of teaching me to be subtle, since we were obviously working in conjunction. Perhaps the elims could be using Elim!Ash as a shield for suspicion, but that seems to have backfired, at least for me. It also doesn't explain why the Elims wouldn't want to lynch Village!Karnage.

I'd assume that if you were elims, you'd provide the in-thread collusion as the proof of so obviously working together that you couldn't be elims. You could have discussed in the elim doc to appear as if you were working together to allay suspicion. Reverse psychology, but hey, it works right? Though, I do think it is unlikely. At this point, I'm just thinking of possible scenarios. 

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If you could confirm that I (or anyone else) didn't PM-orchestrate the bandwagon Hatz lynch with you, I think that could help clear both of us.

How would this clear the both of you? If you were elim, you'd have discussed this in the elim doc.

Again, I'm only trying to start a discussion. I'm not overly suspicious of you, I'm not even going to vote for you as of now. The discussion only helps us to give a better understanding of you, and it might clear you in the end.

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Clarify? I tried to make a tie last cycle, and the thing you quoted is me saying that making ties isn't a bad objective. How does that contradict?

 @DrakeMarshall, yeah I messed up with that post, sorry for that. What I meant is that you said "tie is not a worst goal to have, but I'm not sure why it was done", and well you were aiming to tie votes yourself, so you'd know why it was done. I didn't realize you were talking about vote manip until later. (But I still have my suspicions of you  Either you and Pyro are using that reverse psychology I mentioned earlier or you're using Pyro as a shield and piggy-backing him to provide mislynches an impetus.)

[Elandera she/her]

Tonight has been busier than I'd hoped and tomorrow is going to be a nightmare of a day for me. Analysis isn't going to be plausible for me until at least Monday afternoon, a few hours before rollover. Maybe early Monday morning depending on work again. 

I'm comfortable leaving my vote on Experience. It's not just because you started doing game-related stuff, it was partly the timing of it and just a weird vibe from the rest of your posts. It'll be what I focus on when I have the chance. 

Off the top of my head, I'd like to see more content from @ILuvHats, @Kynedath, @Elkanah, and @Walin. I don't recall seeing many, if any, posts from any of these people, though there are several others that also fit that profile. 

[Mat he/him]

10 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Twinborn theory? Is that just the theory that there are, in fact Twinborn?

It was my theory. Basically I figured with the number of roles there were, most people probably were Twinborn, as Devotary, myself, and at least one other that I know are, and those are the only confirmed ones besides Coda that I know. Coda did have two roles, though. (Pyro proceeded to find me suspicious for thinking this, something about me being an elim and knowing more identities for thinking this? Just a theory... A GAME SE THEORY)

[|TJ| he/him]

Interesting little post I happened to notice from @Experience

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Yes, the thing is that we may not want to suck up the action. As I said before, I'm leaning village for araris, and they thought that coda and I weren't on the same team. This means that Coda must be an elim. (ILuvHats)

Seems very non-elim behaviour here. If he was elim, he'd know Coda would flip village and would cast massive suspicion on him when it happens. An elim would not paint a target on their back by making a statement like this. Now, kandra!Experience though, that's a different matter. But I guess it's too early to go that route, yeah?

@Elandera and @Araris Valerian, you seem to be doubting them. What do you make of this post?

I shall now make some observations based on the players' vote sequence.

1. @The Young Pyromancer - Coda > Ashbringer > Araris > Devotary > Experience > Matrim > Karnage > Hatz

Voted for Coda because he was the first to contribute to the game. Doubted Ash for trying to blend in. Told Araris was giving out elim suspects for no reason. Devotary seems to be a poke vote. Voted for Experience just because they had higher post count. Doubted Matrim for his twinborn theory. Vote for Karnage and Hatz are they were inactive. Is voting like this a ploy to confuse us, or is it his usual style? Is it both? 

Alignment: Storm if I know. If you're a villager, you're not making it easy for us, Pyro. 

2. @DrakeMarshall - Kynedath > Ashbringer > Matrim > Karnage > Araris > Hatz 

Similar path as Pyro with some poke/joke votes missing in the middle. What's interesting to note here is both Drake and Pyro voted for Ashbringer - the third member of 'Coda Support Group'. Now I'll admit I'm genuinely baffled by the Coda Support Group. They seemed honest in their efforts to save him, but the way they went about was...chaotic. Were they attempting to pocket him? Drake also wanted to save Karnage for some reason. 

Alignment: Neutral/Slightly elim

3. @Ashbringer - Karnage > Hatz

Cautious voting. Provided good defence when voted on. But then voted on Hatz as self-preservation in a move that was not self-preservative, then claimed to aim for a larger tie.

Alignment: Slight village. Be wary against pocketing. 

4. @Araris Valerian - Mist > Experience > Coda 

Started the vote on Mist with full intention on lynching them. Does not believe in poke votes. Does not seem to believe in tied votes either. Would rather vote on an already voted person to build a train. That's why their vote on Experience is odd. I believe no one had voted for Experience when they voted for him. Cited vague reasons. Then ended up voting for the same person Experience voted for. If you do not trust them, why do you vote with them? Similar odd behavior this cycle, their voting style opposite to that in the first cycle as they look to 'diversify' votes rather than build a train on their main suspect. 

Alignment: Neutral/Slightly elim

Edited June 7, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Ashbringer he/him]

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@Ashbringer, you said you voted to save yourself. Which one is it?

My initial vote on Karnage was for self-preservation, since someone had just stuck a 2nd vote on me, but I had originally just wanted to tie Karnage and Coda before Coda ninja'd my vote. When Hatz seemed to be an option for a larger tie, I moved my vote there, not expecting so many to follow suit. Not the best logic, but all I can say is I was tired and stuck on mobile where it was difficult to keep track of votes.

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I don't recall Pyro voting for Coda. Him and Drake definitely voted for Matrim who had three votes at one point. So the Pyro lynch train went Matrim > Karnage > Hatz, while there was a separate lynch train on Coda. 

He didn't vote for Coda, but he and Drake (half in the SHOUT PM, half in the thread, perhaps elsewhere) were the ones who started, in Drake's words, "the outspoken 'save Coda' initiative".

Wait, Pyro did vote for Coda in the very beginning, but changed his vote very quickly. In fact, Pyro changed his vote a lot... eh, IDK what that indicates.

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Why do you think it is unlikely? It looks fairly likely in my opinion. There's that cancelled vote off Hatz that could have been soothed at the time the votes were on Karnage.

Mainly just unlikely because I have nothing to read that Pyro is Elim besides this situation, and Pyro could have seen Karnage's post saying that he was going to be inactive. And ALL of the votes on Hatz except Mist's (the last) were moved from Karnage, so someone would have to had preemptively Soothed Hatz. It's more likely than us both being Elims, but there's still other Village explanations. I'm more suspicious of his methods than his actions, if that makes any sense whatsoever. Might be the other way around.

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This is such a bad strategy. Why would you rather lynch someone who has given no possible indication as to whether they are village or elim? Granted not many people give such indication this early in the game, but something can be inferred from the posts here. Would you rather lynch a possible inactive villager than a possible elim suspect no matter who small the suspicion is? I'd imagine the elims would prod their inactive teammate to be a little more active. Going under the radar seems to be no. 1 suspicion for being an elim so they'd try to blend in. I'd reckon the chances of an inactive villager in C1 is much higher than an inactive elim in C1.

I mean, I simply don't know if its a bad strategy. I'm awful at reading into posts, and I didn't get much of a chance to try that day, so really anyone could be a target, which meant I was honestly more interested in making a tie rather than lynching someone specific. Don't really have a better response, besides I'll try to make reads today/tomorrow.

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I'd assume that if you were elims, you'd provide the in-thread collusion as the proof of so obviously working together that you couldn't be elims. You could have discussed in the elim doc to appear as if you were working together to allay suspicion. Reverse psychology, but hey, it works right? Though, I do think it is unlikely. At this point, I'm just thinking of possible scenarios. 

True, but the in-thread "collusion" went Pyro: or we could lynch Walin or Hatz. Also Pyro: We could shift Hatz up there into tie-range as well. Ash: Fine, 'Karnage.' Sorry. I’ll move to Hatz if you post/more people vote for Hatz. And then the train commenced. Which isn't really specific collusion between me and Pyro, just me taking an opprotunity not to force it onto Karnage.

Another thing: I thought there was a non-negligible chance that I would die last night (or get lynched tomorrow), and if Pyro agrees that there wasn't any collusion between us outside the thread, then me dying and flipping village helps clear him, at least with collusion with me, and vice versa I suppose.

 

Well, that was longer than I thought it would be. I do have some questions that may help solve this. If @ILuvHats or anyone wants to take credit for Soothing Hatz's vote, that could help understand what the Elim's intentions are. In thread or in PM would be fine, although TJ may like to know as well. And @The Young Pyromancer, can you confirm that we didn't talk about Hatz in any of our PM's? At least the ones we share?

Have a more analysis-type post coming soon...

Edited June 7, 2020 by Ashbringer
Pyro voted Coda at one point

[|TJ| he/him]

10 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

so someone would have to had preemptively Soothed Hatz.

I don't think Soothing works like this. The target has to be one of the person who has voted for Hatz, not Hatz themselves. The vote gets Soothed. If Hatz was Soothed, his vote on someone else would have disappeared. I'm like ninety-nine% (gotta get that word count, yeah? xD) sure it's like this. Someone back me up on this.

21 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

True, but the in-thread "collusion" went Pyro: or we could lynch Walin or Hatz. Also Pyro: We could shift Hatz up there into tie-range as well. Ash: Fine, 'Karnage.' Sorry. I’ll move to Hatz if you post/more people vote for Hatz.

Just look at that conversation. It looks too tied up. Too perfect. It looks like you've already had the conversation elsewhere.

26 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

if Pyro agrees that there wasn't any collusion between us outside the thread, then me dying and flipping village helps clear him, at least with collusion with me, and vice versa I suppose.

If Pyro himself is a suspect, why would we believe a single thing he says? If Pyro is elim, he could very well be using you as you rightfully guessed as one of the possible scenarios earlier.

38 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

And @The Young Pyromancer, can you confirm that we didn't talk about Hatz in any of our PM's? At least the ones we share?

Again, why would we believe you? As I said earlier, if you guys are elims (no matter how small the chances, I still have to consider it), then you have the elim doc to discuss and come up with this. 
Anyway, I truly liked this discussion. Even if your defence wasn't too convincing, it felt honest, and to me that's important.

In other news, could anyone hazard a guess as to why the elims chose Devotary, one of the 3 inactive players on D1, as their target? I cannot figure it out. Any inactive player is an uncertainty for the villagers. We'd have to keep guessing their alignment since we have nothing to 'read' from them. Why would they take that away?

[Ashbringer he/him]

Fair enough. What I'm trying to get is both me and Pyro agreeing that we didn't collude for the Hatz vote, because... well, we didn't. It's not something that the village should necessarily believe, but it does stick our fates together, so that the village can at least assume that we're either both telling the truth or both lying out of our teeth. If Pyro doesn't agree, then one of us is definitely an Elim and either he goes down, or I go down, flip Village, and take Pyro down with me. 

... wait a minute, did Devotary post at all? Because Pyro highlighted that we chould lynch Hatz or Walin, two of the three inactives, and never mentioned Devotary. Hmmm.

Analysis:

@The Young Pyromancer: First person to vote for Coda, Karnage, and Hatz (although his vote on Coda seems more a joke than a suspicion). He’s been acting a bit odd, but friendly to the new player chats. Voted on a lot of different people at different times, and seemed to lead me around voting for different people (which I walked right into).

Analysis: Neutral, but leaning Elim. I’m keeping my eye on him. Depends if he backs me up on our PM’s.

@Karnage: Only made two posts: one at the beginning stating that he wouldn’t be very active, and another right at/after reset. One thing: Karnage made his post saying he wouldn’t have much time to post… while also poke-voting Araris. It looks like he only logged into the thread AT reset, which means he was probably very surprised by his near-lynching – but also had no chance to move his “poke”, which is NAI but… odd. Analysis: Is neutral from his own posts, but leans Elim from the voting chaos. It would help to get you’re POV on all of this.

@Mist: The first one to get several votes, and messed up the final vote tally to make it look like Karnage was tied with Coda and Hatz, then broke the “tie” to vote for Hatz. Not really active enough to say much else. Analysis: Probably a Village who made a mistake in the voting, but noteworthy. 

@Ventyl: Mostly being analytical, active in the 1^st half of C1 and not the 2^nd. Started the votes on Mist, which trained a little then quickly faded (Mist got voted on by Ventyl, Araris, maybe Reading, then Ventyl and Araris retracted their votes and Reading somehow negated his vote). Was the first to be a little suspicious of me, but very quickly PM’d me saying he thought I was village.

I’m kind of stuck with trusting Ventyl because we shared roles. However, it makes us a good team assuming we are both village and can work together. (Ventyl shared his role first, I followed.) Analysis: Leaning Village, but unsure.

Only other I'm concerned about for Elims is Drake from vote patterns, but that's not quite enough to accuse him. Others seem alright, but I'd need to better analyze posts for tone over data.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

46 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

In other news, could anyone hazard a guess as to why the elims chose Devotary, one of the 3 inactive players on D1, as their target? I cannot figure it out. Any inactive player is an uncertainty for the villagers. We'd have to keep guessing their alignment since we have nothing to 'read' from them. Why would they take that away?

I think it has become something of a meta trend for the elim team to kill inactives, and there are a few reasons behind it. First and foremost is that there was a long time where the most active players were always killed first each game, either by lynch or by elim kill. Those games devolved into having 1-2 pages of posts at most each cycle. That’s no fun for the elim team, even if they win, so I think that partially led to the trend. Also, as Elandera already mentioned, a kill on Devotary doesn’t give us anything to go on. Supposing I had been killed instead (and flipped village, naturally ). Then you guys could discuss whether the people who voted on me were suspicious or not. You would also know that all of my reads were honest, if not necessarily accurate.

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Started the vote on Mist with full intention on lynching them. Does not believe in poke votes. Does not seem to believe in tied votes either. Would rather vote on an already voted person to build a train. That's why their vote on Experience is odd. I believe no one had voted for Experience when they voted for him. Cited vague reasons. Then ended up voting for the same person Experience voted for. If you do not trust them, why do you vote with them? Similar odd behavior this cycle, their voting style opposite to that in the first cycle as they look to 'diversify' votes rather than build a train on their main suspect. 

Just to quickly respond to this: I have a different voting pattern when I feel like the village knows nothing, and when there is enough information for an informed (or at least semi-informed) lynch. Early lynch trains force discussion to happen. Clearly, lots of good discussion is happening this cycle without me starting a lynch train (also, I think my vote on Mist C1 was pretty ineffective).

I like the analysis from @TJ Shade and @Ashbringer, but could we get some votes as well? The earlier people start voting, the more time we can spend responding and talking about the lynch.

[Ashbringer he/him]

I’m sort of stuck on who to vote for. My main suspicion is Pyro, but Karnage and maybe Mist as well. And if I lead a Pyro lynch and he flips Village... that won’t go well for me. I have one other suspicion, but it’s personal for now since it’s more about me than them. 

I guess I’ll poke Pyro, at least until he says something about our PMs. He did nearly get 2 different inactives lynched, and he’s my only suspect that I think has more truth than conspiracy at its heart.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Don’t be quite so worried about lynching villagers. On average, even experienced players lynch more villagers than elims. I won’t fault you if we lynch Pyro and he flips villager, although I currently have a slight village read on him.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

What I'm trying to get is both me and Pyro agreeing that we didn't collude for the Hatz vote, because... well, we didn't.

That is true, unless you count me and drake 'colluding' in a PM ash could see.

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Just look at that conversation. It looks too tied up. Too perfect. It looks like you've already had the conversation elsewhere.

...sigh. You're tinfoiling again...

Also, me being chaotic is my style. It provokes reactions and gets the game moving. I'm not very good at reads, so I try to generate information for better players than me to use. Whether that information is on me or others is irrelevant as long as it helps the village. Well, at least normally. In this game I have another motive

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

... wait a minute, did Devotary post at all? Because Pyro highlighted that we chould lynch Hatz or Walin, two of the three inactives, and never mentioned Devotary. Hmmm.

I pmed every player. Devotary responded, whereas Hatz and Walin did not.

[|TJ| he/him]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

What I'm trying to get is both me and Pyro agreeing that we didn't collude for the Hatz vote, because... well, we didn't.

Let's say that I do believe you. Then arises another case in which Pyro and possibly Drake colluded and you were just swept along with them. So it doesn't necessarily tie you and Pyro together. 

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

wait a minute, did Devotary post at all? Because Pyro highlighted that we chould lynch Hatz or Walin, two of the three inactives, and never mentioned Devotary. Hmmm.

Yeah they did not post at all. Pyro poke-voted them once without giving any context or asking others to vote on them. And then quickly changed their vote. Knew in advance about their night kill?

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

 

@Karnage: Only made two posts: one at the beginning stating that he wouldn’t be very active, and another right at/after reset. One thing: Karnage made his post saying he wouldn’t have much time to post… while also poke-voting Araris. It looks like he only logged into the thread AT reset, which means he was probably very surprised by his near-lynching – but also had no chance to move his “poke”, which is NAI but… odd. Analysis: Is neutral from his own posts, but leans Elim from the voting chaos. It would help to get you’re POV on all of this.

Their post and vote itself is NAI. But the others vote on him (the following exodus) is definitely unusual. Also the fact that he came to vote right at the death. Did someone prod him? There's also the Soothed vote on Hatz that could have been placed when the votes were on Karnage. Leaning slightly elim.

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

@Ventyl: Mostly being analytical, active in the 1^st half of C1 and not the 2^nd. Started the votes on Mist, which trained a little then quickly faded (Mist got voted on by Ventyl, Araris, maybe Reading, then Ventyl and Araris retracted their votes and Reading somehow negated his vote). Was the first to be a little suspicious of me, but very quickly PM’d me saying he thought I was village

Poke-voted Mist and Emi. Made a deep analysis of Coda's statement about the dangers of an elim being Firesoul and took that as a proof of Coda being indeed a Firesoul elim. I do believe they either over-analysed this or deliberately made Coda more suspicious. 

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I like the analysis from @TJ Shade and @Ashbringer, but could we get some votes as well? The earlier people start voting, the more time we can spend responding and talking about the lynch.

I'd still wait to see more people discussing before I make my decision but my main suspects are Karnage, Pyro, and Drake. 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

2 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Let's say that I do believe you. Then arises another case in which Pyro and possibly Drake colluded and you were just swept along with them. So it doesn't necessarily tie you and Pyro together. 

Yeah they did not post at all. Pyro poke-voted them once without giving any context or asking others to vote on them. And then quickly changed their vote. Knew in advance about their night kill?

Their post and vote itself is NAI. But the others vote on him (the following exodus) is definitely unusual. Also the fact that he came to vote right at the death. Did someone prod him? There's also the Soothed vote on Hatz that could have been placed when the votes were on Karnage. Leaning slightly elim.

Poke-voted Mist and Emi. Made a deep analysis of Coda's statement about the dangers of an elim being Firesoul and took that as a proof of Coda being indeed a Firesoul elim. I do believe they either over-analysed this or deliberately made Coda more suspicious. 

I'd still wait to see more people discussing before I make my decision but my main suspects are Karnage, Pyro, and Drake. 

Please read my prior post.

[|TJ| he/him]

15 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

That is true, unless you count me and drake 'colluding' in a PM ash could see.

So you're saying there was a PM in which you discussed getting 

18 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Also, me being chaotic is my style. It provokes reactions and gets the game moving. I'm not very good at reads, so I try to generate information for better players than me to use. Whether that information is on me or others is irrelevant as long as it helps the village.

That seems fair. But you've got to admit it gets confusing at times, making it very hard to get a read on you. When that happens people (me) usually tend to assume the worst. I know it's not a good habit, but I suppose in a game like this you have to assume the worst right?

21 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I pmed every player. Devotary responded, whereas Hatz and Walin did not.

Okay that's fairly reasonable though we'll have to take your word for it. 

I'm not barreling ahead and making set assumptions. I'm just thinking of every possible situation. Surely, you can't fault me for that. As you can see, I haven't voted for you (or anyone) yet. I'm only just slightly suspicious of you, more like I'm confused. So I just laid everything on the table to see what fits. It wasn't me building a case against you. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

I feel like there has to be a better defense for Pyro than “you’re tinfoiling again”.

37 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Their {Karnage’s} post and vote itself is NAI. But the others vote on him (the following exodus) is definitely unusual. Also the fact that he came to vote right at the death. Did someone prod him? There's also the Soothed vote on Hatz that could have been placed when the votes were on Karnage. Leaning slightly elim.

It’s less the vote itself, more the fact he stated he wouldn’t be on to say anything while leaving a vote that he therefore would likely never get the chance to change.

————

Well, Pyro seems to agree we never PM’d.  I agree it doesn’t necessarily mean we’re on the same team, but it means that the swap to Hatz was at least semi-spontaneous (in regards to Pyro and I, IDK the rest).

The PM with Drake I believe he’s refering to is in the SHOUT PM, where Pyro and Drake seemed to forget which PM they were in. They mentioned that there’s likely 1-2 elims in “that PM”, and then Pyro said of the group he suspected me (Ash) and Mist.

Up to you guys to decide whether such a “slipup” is feasible or a ploy, but Hatz was never mentioned. Pyro should have mentioned that... 

Pyro. For now.

Edit: Spontaneous combustion has occured. Deploying Flame-Retardant countermeasures.

Can this please not turn into a back-and-forth between me and TJ all day? 

Edited June 7, 2020 by Ashbringer

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

I mean, I'm posting as well.

But what I also meant was that Drake talked about making a tie in the PM as well.

[Ashbringer he/him]

?

... oh, found it. That was before the slip. Still, no PM mention of Hatz (or Karnage, for that matter). Just in favor of making a tie out of Coda’s lynch. Which I think I mentioned happening somewhere.

About 1 hour before reset, FYI (well, for TJ).

[Lahilt he/him]

Heres my rede 

 Pyro because of the attempt to save Coda i am leaning Villager .

Ash although i voted for them last cycle it was more a poke vote no lasting suspicions. Neutral for now.

TJ Shade i am leaning very slightly more Elim but i am getting reads both ways and i like the heavy discussion that they are throwing out so i will not vote on them yet.

I will vote on Expierence 

[|TJ| he/him]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Can this please not turn into a back-and-forth between me and TJ all day? 

Heyyy, what's wrong with a good back-and-forth? (shhh we seem to be racking up 200+ word posts)

14 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

Heres my rede 

 Pyro because of the attempt to save Coda i am leaning Villager .

Ash although i voted for them last cycle it was more a poke vote no lasting suspicions. Neutral for now.

TJ Shade i am leaning very slightly more Elim but i am getting reads both ways and i like the heavy discussion that they are throwing out so i will not vote on them yet.

I will vote on Expierence 

Well you gave reasoning for everyone except the personal you are voting on. Why do you think Experience is elim?

[Magestar he/him]

Sorry I haven't been terribly active yet this cycle.  I was rather busy and then I wanted to try and analyze Araris' play style from other games, which led me down the rabbit whole that is LG65.  I'm gonna start by responding to things from this cycle and then move towards analyzing specific people.  I think I'm going to semi-randomly pick four or five people and analyze both them and their interactions.  So uh.  Here are some random quotes and my analysis of them.  They're all out of order.   

18 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Okay, that supports the Twinborn theory. Interesting that the elims killed someone that had very little thread presence. Did Devotary express suspicion of anyone in pms?

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think it has become something of a meta trend for the elim team to kill inactives, and there are a few reasons behind it. First and foremost is that there was a long time where the most active players were always killed first each game, either by lynch or by elim kill. Those games devolved into having 1-2 pages of posts at most each cycle. That’s no fun for the elim team, even if they win, so I think that partially led to the trend. Also, as Elandera already mentioned, a kill on Devotary doesn’t give us anything to go on. Supposing I had been killed instead (and flipped village, naturally ). Then you guys could discuss whether the people who voted on me were suspicious or not. You would also know that all of my reads were honest, if not necessarily accurate.

I can't think of a lot of in-game reasons for killing Devotary, so I basically agree with Araris.  It seems more likely it was a meta decision.  Devotary had what, one post all game so far?  Idk.  I get wanting to kill inactives.  Leaving the actives alive makes the game more fun and more challenging as an Elim.  The time period Araris is mentioning is one I remember very clearly.  I hated it.  It ruined a number of games for me.  Even as an Elim, it's not fun at all when all that's left is inactives.  There's no challenge.  You just gently guide the lynch and wait until you kill everyone.  Yech.

I know saying this might make me read Elim, but I don't really care.   

18 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

My suspicion was that if Karnage is elim, having a group get him very close to being lynched and reversing it very last-minute would be a good way to draw suspicion away from Karnage. And Pyro organized both the Karnage voting and the swap to Hatz.

Could just be me trying to figure out the logic behind the situation, but it is very weird. I don't know why elim!Pyro would move voting off of Coda (village), onto Karnage (?), then onto Hatz (probably Village), in any situation, but especially with Village!Karnage. 

Now that I think about it, I'm not positive Elim!Karnage leads directly to Elim!Pyro, but I think it does the other way around. It looks like Pyro was protecting Karnage with a "change of heart", which could be from Elim comaradarie or  from realizing he'd said he wasn't going to be active. 

I don't see any of this.  The biggest problem is that Karnage isn't suspicious to begin with, so any attempts to draw suspicion away from him would be rather lack-luster as compared to an attempt to draw attention to another player.  That would be much more effective.  And I really don't see the links between Pyro and Karnage.  I admit to being notoriously bad at reading Pyro (by which I mean they always read Elim to me), but moving their vote around a bit cycle one doesn't seem terribly Elim-leaning.

Alright now someone else post so I can keep going.    Am I blatantly splitting my posts into 200+ word segments?  Possibly.  Am I also avoiding a nearly thousand word post?  Also yes.  My next post will have a vote!   

Edited June 7, 2020 by Magestar

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

I mean, I don’t think we’ve played together enough for you to say ‘notorious’, but okay.

Is there anything I could do to help your reads?