Long Game 66: A Struggle for Power

[Elandera]

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Hold up, something doesn't seem right. I just noticed Ventyl changed their vote from Experience to Drake during D2. That..doesn't really make sense if they were elim. Why would an elim make a village to village shift in the last moment? Doesn't seem elim-y.

It's a perfectly reasonable move for someone trying too build up cash to buy items that can mimic the role they'd claimed. A last-minute vote change to the lead lynch means they are guaranteed to get some of the boxings, and Drake had been active and talkative enough to have a fair bit of change. 

[Ashbringer]

True, but it strikes a weird balance between NAI Boxing hunting versus suspicious lynch manipulation.

Anyway, here's a summary of TJ's posts.

TJ: I can't tell how experienced that TJ is at this. D1 he posted fairly frequently (well, compared to anyone except Pyro and XP), but didn't give much in the way of actual analysis (most was jokes and RP). He started being a lot more analytical with the Hats fiasco N1, especially trying to figure out the vote manipulation.

D2 started with a lot of bouncing theories and discussion between TJ and me. He was the first to get suspicious of Drake due to Drake’s Gasper-limited read list, and the two were mutually suspicious of each other for a while. Wanted to get some inactives to start posting. Seemed surprised when Drake turned up lynched on N2, seemed to (genuinely) find that it should have been a tie on the D2 lynch only for Young Bard to find the mistake in his counting (Lahilt’s vote). Admitted he was wrong, wrote some memorial RP for Lorena Blackburn.

D3 was very interested in the Kandra role, and assumed that Araris would pick an Elim as the successor. Was also suspicious of the XP lynch and advocated early for an XP info lynch. Was mostly silent during the Ash-Ventyl accusations, but came to state that Emi didn’t target anyone last cycle and to wonder why Ventyl bought Steel Traps. However, he noted that no one was really defending Ventyl which he saw as Village-leaning.

 

Bonus: Mist could be being all sneaky-like since he usually only posts around the actual resets of day turns to vote.

Still keeping an eye on Mist, along with Pyro and Karnage, but I think they’re alright for now.

[The Young Pyromancer]

11 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Bonus: Mist could be being all sneaky-like since he usually only posts around the actual resets of day turns to vote.

Could be time zones. 

11 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

TJ: I can't tell how experienced that TJ is at this.

This is their first full game.

[Mist]

First, my name is Mist, not Mint. I know there was a player named Frozen Mint. 3 times so far. I will respond to it, but it's mildly annoying.

The SHOUTY-SHOUT AGENCY!!! is mostly RP, and discussion of the Rotating Budget Proposal. 

Or, you know, it could be procrastination. I'll try to post farther from rollover. Two games also helped discourage large amounts of content. 

I'm working on an analysis post and will include a vote.

[Magestar]

29 minutes ago, Elandera said:

It's a perfectly reasonable move for someone trying too build up cash to buy items that can mimic the role they'd claimed. A last-minute vote change to the lead lynch means they are guaranteed to get some of the boxings, and Drake had been active and talkative enough to have a fair bit of change. 

I thought Pyro insinuated that they'd bought the other steel trap?  I could be wrong.

I'm kind of in a weird spot right now because I see both Ventyl and Ash as being kind of suspicious, but it seems extremely unlikely that they're both Elims.  If Ventyl flips village, it puts Ash in a really tight spot, while if Ventyl flips Elim, Ash is basically cleared.  So I'm kinda liking how the Ventyl lynch is looking at the moment.

However, the Mist lynch is also making a little bit of headway, so I'm probably going to leave my vote there for now.

22 minutes ago, Mist said:

First, my name is Mist, not Mint. I know there was a player named Frozen Mint. 3 times so far. I will respond to it, but it's mildly annoying.

Oops, sorry about that.  I guess I just wasn't paying attention.

I've tried to analyze some more players, but I haven't really gotten anywhere.  I've pretty much already taken a look at everyone I'm suspicious of, and I'm not sure there's a whole lot more to say at the moment.  I'm hoping this lynch gives us something to work with.

On a separate note, I'm really impressed with TJ and Ash.  I didn't realize how new they both were, and their content and such has been pretty good.  I tend to have pretty low expectations of new players, so I've been really pleased with their stuff.  I'm still sus of Ash, but that doesn't stop me from also appreciating how many good posts they have.    

[The Young Pyromancer]

8 minutes ago, Magestar said:

I thought Pyro insinuated that they'd bought the other steel trap?  I could be wrong.

Said I knew who has it, not that I have it.

re: mechanics, I'm thinking of putting together a mechanics PM, to try and work something out. Will try and set up some sort of verification. Comment/PM if interested.

[Elandera]

28 minutes ago, Magestar said:

I thought Pyro insinuated that they'd bought the other steel trap?  I could be wrong.

True, but we know Ventyl bought a trap after the Drake lynch. I still don't know why he'd waste the money on one when his ability essentially does the same thing. 

[Mist]

Pyro, I'm interested in the mechanics PM.

TJ's comment at the beginning of the cycle seems like overreaction. "This is bad. This is baaaad."  Looking back, on page 44 in the combined thread, he said, "I felt compelled as a villager to provide all the necessary information." It seems like he may be trying to emphasize that he's a villager. 

Magestar hasn't been reading elim for me, and I haven't noticed anything in my read-through yet.

TJ Shade. This is what I have so far. I will likely reconsider, and I will be on before rollover. 

[Ashbringer]

Raow looked up at the old human. He looked very tired, although from real exhaustion, metaphysical burden, or from some sort of old-person attitude the kitten wasn’t able to tell. The man seemed like he was just… finished, as if the thing he wanted most in the world – besides running his hands through Raow’s soft copper fur – was to not have to be the responsible one in the group. 

But Raow could see the people in the crowd. Many were looking at the man, Faleast. Some in awe, some in admiration, and some in anger. Raow didn’t think that they would stay mixed of opinion for long – his landlord was demanding that the crowd give a Loyalist up in a few hours. 

He felt Faleast continue to pet him. His little bumps in his spine, the little sharp copper things, didn’t seem to bother him very much. Perhaps he just thought he was bony, or something.

Raow felt… Connected to the man. He couldn’t really explain it, much like how he couldn’t explain why he felt obligated to mentally capitalize the word “Connected”. He hadn’t even learned what capitalization was until two days ago. Still, Raow thought he liked Faleast. They shared similarities he didn’t have a name for. 

I really need to re-read that dictionary again. Skimming is just not going to cut it for my vocabulary.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

True, but we know Ventyl bought a trap after the Drake lynch. I still don't know why he'd waste the money on one when his ability essentially does the same thing. 

I did it to prove my role, but after Emi made the clarification I didn’t think that I needed to roleblock them anymore so I unsubmitted the action. I’ll probably end up selling the trap if I live. 

EDIT: 

I’ve decided I’m going to Roleblock Walin, and use the trap on Ash. So if maybe I can please stay alive, I can actually prove my role...

Edited June 15, 2020 by Ventyl

[Elandera]

14 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

I did it to prove my role, but after Emi made the clarification I didn’t think that I needed to roleblock them anymore so I unsubmitted the action. I’ll probably end up selling the trap if I live. 

Why would you need a trap to prove your role that does the same thing? 

[Magestar]

Just now, Elandera said:

True, but we know Ventyl bought a trap after the Drake lynch. I still don't know why he'd waste the money on one when his ability essentially does the same thing. 

Just now, Elandera said:

Why would you need a trap to prove your role that does the same thing? 

If I recall correctly, at the time Ventyl thought that Ash was blocking them from using their ability, so they would have needed two roleblocks, one to stop Ash and one to use on Emi.  Could be wrong though.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

3 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Why would you need a trap to prove your role that does the same thing? 

Well at the time I bought it, I was worried that Ashbringer would Pulse me so that my action didn’t show up and I would die. But then when Emi posted, I thought Ashbringer was going to be all good, but apparently I was wrong. I had submitted the actions of Leeching Walin and Steel Trapping Ash that turn, but when Emi posted I unsubmitted. In hindsight, I probably should’ve done it anyway.

EDIT:

@Magestar you are right.

 

Edited June 15, 2020 by Ventyl

[Ashbringer]

I mean, it makes sense when you put it that way. It's just that you didn't say anything about it...

I don't have any motive to start Pulsing you. The moment I do that, my role in all of this moves from "accusing" to "framing", and while it would probably have gotten you lynched, if you flipped Village then I would be Coinshot fodder.

I'm probably not going to be on for the next half hour, but I'm not really sure.

[Magestar]

Anyone have a last minute vote count?

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I mean, it makes sense when you put it that way. It's just that you didn't say anything about it...

I don't have any motive to start Pulsing you. The moment I do that, my role in all of this moves from "accusing" to "framing", and while it would probably have gotten you lynched, if you flipped Village then I would be Coinshot fodder.

I'm probably not going to be on for the next half hour, but I'm not really sure.

 My motto is, ‘better safe than sorry.’ 

EDIT;

So Ashbringer know that I’ve properly clarified everything (I hope), would you be so kind as to not kill me today? I can prove my role for real this time, I’ve already submitted the actions to Leech Walin and Trap you, because I really don’t know what to do with the trap anymore.

Edited June 15, 2020 by Ventyl

[The Young Pyromancer]

Gah, fine. Ventyl. Not sure why you didn't do anything before. Might be a kandra trying to fake things out here.

EDIT: Flame On!

Also, to clarify, I meant that as in trying to bluff via traps.

Edited June 15, 2020 by The Young Pyromancer

[|TJ|]

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

It's a perfectly reasonable move for someone trying too build up cash to buy items that can mimic the role they'd claimed. A last-minute vote change to the lead lynch means they are guaranteed to get some of the boxings, and Drake had been active and talkative enough to have a fair bit of change. 

Experience was leading the lynch at this point and they were a lot more more active than Drake. 

2 hours ago, Mist said:

Pyro, I'm interested in the mechanics PM.

TJ's comment at the beginning of the cycle seems like overreaction. "This is bad. This is baaaad."  Looking back, on page 44 in the combined thread, he said, "I felt compelled as a villager to provide all the necessary information." It seems like he may be trying to emphasize that he's a villager. 

Magestar hasn't been reading elim for me, and I haven't noticed anything in my read-through yet.

TJ Shade. This is what I have so far. I will likely reconsider, and I will be on before rollover. 

This seems like a purely retaliatory vote. Are you seriously telling that out of everyone remaining that I'm the most suspicious because I said I was village? Where is your defence as you are being accused?

[StrikerEZ]

The turn is over! No more PMing, posting, or submitting actions.

[Young Bard]

Lafay grabbed the whisky bottle, took a long swig. He’d taken one accusation after another, and he’d managed to wade his way through each one. Until now. People eyed him suspiciously – even more than they did each other – and Lafay knew it would only be a matter of time before they came for him.

Except, unlike Shard, you’re actually one of the ones the mob is looking for. The idle thought passed through Lafay’s brain, and he sighed. It had been mostly accidental – he hadn’t wanted to get involved with any more storming wars, but he’d been drunk, and everything the Loyalists said seemed so reasonable in the moment. Before he knew it, he was caught up in another scheme again.

He heard voices coming up the stairway. “He’s this way! He’s not going to get away this time!”

“There’s still hope. You need to swear the fourth ideal, Lafay.” Ola said urgently.

He heard bangs as someone heaved something heavy into the door – there was a sharp crack, but the door held, for now.

Lafay mumbled, trying to clear his head. “I don’t know the words.”

“Think! You still have time.”

There was another boom at the door, and Lafay saw a thin cobweb-like line appear across the door – one more hit and it would probably burst in two.

Lafay thought desperately, but… he didn’t know the words. He had strayed from the path, and he didn’t know the words.

“Ola, I’m sorry. Maybe you’ll find someone else to show you the Cosmere.”

Before Ola could reply, the door burst open, and the mob swarmed in, and he felt hands grabbing him, hitting him, strangling him. It was almost a relief when he slipped into unconsciousness.

Several minutes later, the mob left, leaving Lafay lying in a pool of blood and whisky.

---

Ventyl has been lynched! They were a Loyalist Leecher Misting!

Vote Count:
Ventyl (3): Ashbringer, Elandera, Lahilt, The Young Pyromancer
Mist (2): Magestar, TJ Shade
Magestar (1): Karnage
TJ Shade (1): Mist

PMs are still open! Make sure I am in them, along with Young Bard and Fifth Scholar. There will not be a lynch this turn. Items are available in the black market.

This turn will end on Monday, June 15th, at 9 pm CDT, and the next turn will be posted at 10 pm CDT.

Player List:

  Hide contents

1. @Karnage - Lance Neverwatch 
2. @Elandera
3. Elkanah PRE Operative Leecher Misting
4. @The Young Pyromancer - Pyria Young
5. Shard of Reading - Reading PRE Operative Leecher/Pinnacle Twinborn
6. Experience - Shard PRE Operative Lurcher/Bloodmaker Twinborn
7. @Lahilt - Lahlit
8. Ventyl - Lafay Etteax Loyalist Leecher Misting
9. Coda PRE Operative Seeker Misting and Hemalurgist
10. Matrim's Dice - Lord Cauthon PRE Operative Nicroburst/Sparker Twinborn
11. @TJ Shade - TJ Shade
12. @Emi - Lorinne
13. xinoehp512 - Neru Loyalist Rioter/Gasper Twinborn
14. @Kidpen - Villin
15. @Mist - Lumen
16. DrakeMarshall - Lorena Blackburn PRE Operative Gasper Ferring and Thief
17. Araris Valerian - Araris Valerian Kandra
18. Devotary of Spontaniety - Adomert PRE Operative Slider/Sentry Twinborn
19. @Kynedath
20. @Walin - Lerin
21. @Ashbringer - Faleast
22. @The_God_King
23. @Magestar - Reginald Kettis

Black Market

  Hide contents

• Medallion: 6 available (45 boxings)
• Charged Spike: 4 available (65 boxings)
• Uncharged Spike: 2 available (90 boxings)
• Dagger: 2 available (80 boxings)
• Bulletproof Vest: 2 available (35 boxings)
• Steel Trap: 3 available (25 boxings)
• Lerasium Alloy: 1 available (115 boxings)

 

Edited June 15, 2020 by Young Bard

[Mist]

@Young Bard, Lahilt or Ventyl?

TJ, it was just something I noticed. Sorry. I forgot that you were accusing me. I didn't consciously mean for it to be retaliatory. 

My defense for activity: two games at once was hard to balance at first. I'll be more active here now.

I have a hard time noticing personal gut reads. I prefer to analyze players. I'm practicing. Also, this is only my third game. 

[Young Bard]

1 minute ago, Mist said:

@Young Bard, Lahilt or Ventyl?

TJ, it was just something I noticed. Sorry. I forgot that you were accusing me. I didn't consciously mean for it to be retaliatory. 

My defense for activity: two games at once was hard to balance at first. I'll be more active here now.

I have a hard time noticing personal gut reads. I prefer to analyze players. I'm practicing. Also, this is only my third game. 

Drat, I thought I'd fixed that before anyone saw. Ventyl.

[Magestar]

Oh thank goodness.  We needed that win.    

Yeah, that basically clears Ash for me.  Things are looking up.  I'll post my thoughts in the morning.

[Ashbringer]

I’d love to say that I knew it all along, but... that’s a relief. That was a loooong rabbit hole I had to chase down.

However... now what? I suppose we can hyperanalyze Ventyl’s posts, but the only people really linked to him are me and maybe Emi.

Signing off for tonight, I’ll be back for my Boxings in the morning.

[Elandera]

Oh good, another place to start with analysis! Ventyl posted a ton, so I don't know how far or in depth I'll be able to get. I'll work on that tonight/tomorrow.

First, though, I want to do a brief read list based on memory, since I don't think I've done one yet. 

1. Karnage - Elim lean; I still haven't gotten over my suspicion here, but I want to look more at the posts and interactions with Ventyl.
2. Pyro - Neutral; I really have no idea. I want to read them as village, though.
3. Lahlit - Neutral; Not much stands out in my mind regarding them. The read is mostly for staying under the radar. 
4. TJ Shade - Neutral, elim lean; I want to look closer at their interactions with Ventyl as well. Last turn gave me the impression of trying to possibly save them when another lynch seemed possible. (I'll need to actually look at how that voting went before I do much more with this suspicion.)
5. Emi - Mostly inactive
6. Kidpen - Mostly inactive
7. Mist - Neutral; same as my read on Lahlit.
8. Kynedath - Inactive
9. Walin - Mostly inactive
10. Ashbringer - Village; Their continued suspicion and pursuit of a Ventyl lynch pretty much seals the deal here. If someone has protection, this might be a good place to put your action. A confirmed villager is always nice to have alive.
11. TGK - Inactive
12. Magestar - Neutral, elim lean; I want to look into their interactions with Ventyl for much the same reason as TJ. Some of their posts seemed pretty insistent on saving Ventyl if possible.