Long Game 66: A Struggle for Power

[Lahilt he/him]

33 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Why would you think that?

My point is even if he didn't there's no reason not to share. Just because he blocked someone doesn't mean they are necessarily going to be lynched. It's definitely not proof of a kill role, but it's something that can certainly swing a close decision, or provide someone to look into.

I agree that Ashbringer should release who they targeted, or at least PM this to a few players. I honestly do not see what the loss would be in not sharing this info.

We would not have to lynch the player just yet.

It would be something to follow up on and generate information and discussion, which is better than blind lynches.

[Magestar he/him]

4 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Found something interesting. 

Quote

After a brief skim of Ventyl's posts (I weeded out pure RP and irrelevant posts made mostly during D1 when most posts was a thing), I have a few more things to say. Emi and Walin may be worth a coinshot kill/lynch.

Yeah...  I tend to be very skeptical of that sort of thing, because as an Elim it seems like it would be very odd to kill someone just because they expressed minor suspicions of you.  Additionally, Elandera later cleared up their suspicions of Emi, and actually ended up defending them.  That leaves Walin.  It would be really odd if the Elims killed someone just because they expressed suspicion of a single Elim.

So I don't really put a lot of weight on that.

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

It's also going to be really hard to judge whether there is a missing kill, because my guess is that someone has the lerasium now, which means that the Elims may have an extra Coinshot or defensive role like Slider.

47 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Why would you think that?

If I'd made three more posts over the course of the game, I could have had it last cycle.  Needless to say, I was slightly disappointed.  Anyway, I feel like I'm probably not the richest player, so I assume someone else bought the Lerasium last cycle.   

47 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

My point is even if he didn't there's no reason not to share. Just because he blocked someone doesn't mean they are necessarily going to be lynched. It's definitely not proof of a kill role, but it's something that can certainly swing a close decision, or provide someone to look into.

I guess.  I think the difference here is just a difference of opinion; I wouldn't give that sort of information any real weight in my lynch decisions.  So it doesn't really matter to me if he shares.  I think it would really just confuse things further, since we still won't really know anything about the person Ash Pulsed.

I'd love a vote count.  I'm not really sure what's gonna happen this cycle... I wish I had a more confident suspicion of someone, but everything's sort of iffy right now.  I think the big problem is that the Elims we've killed so far haven't interacted with people a whole bunch; Kynedath was basically inactive except for his interactions with Xino, who basically just posted role analysis in the beginning.  Then there's Ventyl.  I suppose I could take a look at their posts again, but I haven't seen anything super interesting.

I might change my vote later.

Edited June 17, 2020 by Magestar
quote boxes wut

[StrikerEZ he/him]

In case anyone wants it, here's a vote count!

Mist (2): Lahilt, Magestar
Walin (1): TJ Shade

Also, there's just under three hours left in this turn.
 

[Magestar he/him]

Ok, so I did a quick look over Ventyl's posts again.  Ventyl tried to get Emi lynched as well.  So I'm really not seeing Emi being a potential Elim, and I don't think Elandera was killed for their reads.  However, Ventyl did have a "village read" on Walin... Idk.  It doesn't seem super indicative, or at least it shouldn't be.  I don't think the Elims would have killed Elandera for that, and I don't think it really says anything about Walin either.  Another problem with this is that I feel like if we lynch Walin, we'll basically be back to square one, as far as analysis goes.  Walin hasn't been terribly active, so there wouldn't be a lot to analyze.

I think Karnage is also pretty clean...  so we've basically got Kidpen, Mist, and Walin as potential Elims, in my mind.  Being super strict and not accounting for any players who might have bussed their teammates or anything, I think those are our options.  I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if any combination of those players are the last two or three Elims.  For now, though, I'll leave my vote on Mist.  If they're not an Elim... I don't know.  I might move my vote to Walin before the end of the cycle.

I guess I'd also like to see a little more discussion and voting.  Three votes this close to the end of the cycle isn't great.

[Kidpen he/him]

I don't like this situation. Give me a minute to look at some of mist and walins post. I know I haven't been active but everyone else is supposed to be better than me!

[Kidpen he/him]

Posting again cause this has a vote.

I'm not in love with these lynch options, but I'm even less in love with every other lynch option. Between the two of them, I think Mist is the better option. Plus I feel very strongly about preventing vote manip.

[Mist she/her]

Karnage hasn't been very active. He said the first day that he might have to meet the minimum activity requirements for a while. He's voted on Hatz, Emi, Ventyl, and Magestar. His continued inactivity makes me suspicious. He hasn't posted here this cycle, despite posting a topic today.

TJ Shade seems fairly village, providing info that can help us, even though I'm not particularly happy he revealed my role. The thing I pointed out last cycle is honestly nothing. 

Walin hasn't been very active. He offered that Ventyl could RB him. He claimed Copper Misting with Feruchemy of some sort. He asked if we agree that Emi and Ashbringer soft-cleared. He could definitely be a Connector. 

I will vote for self-preservation. I would prefer not to lose my extra life, as that makes me vulnerable to elim kill or Coinshot. 

Walin

[Magestar he/him]

Hmm.

I'm going to move my vote to Walin.  If Mist really is a Thug, I'd rather not waste the lynch this late in the game.  I don't feel particularly strongly enough about Mist to leave my vote there, either, compared to suspicions of Walin.  Walin.  I hope this works out.

As a side note, if Walin does turn Elim, I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if Kidpen is also an Elim.  So there's that.

24 minutes ago, Mist said:

Karnage hasn't been very active. He said the first day that he might have to meet the minimum activity requirements for a while. He's voted on Hatz, Emi, Ventyl, and Magestar. His continued inactivity makes me suspicious. He hasn't posted here this cycle, despite posting a topic today.

Karnage's interactions with Ventyl, a confirmed Elim, makes me doubt that Karnage is an Elim.  If I recall correctly, Ventyl voted on Karnage when their lynches were close, as self preservation.  While that could have been a little bit of Elim misdirection since they were both on the chopping block, I don't think it's something most Elims would think to do.

I'm trying to remove most forms of Elim misdirection from my mind at the moment, since such thoughts are most likely to just be paranoia on my part.  At the moment it's helped me narrow down my list of possible suspects from nearly the entire list to a couple of people.  I'm not sure how wise this is, but it's letting me vote this cycle, so I'm going to stick with it and hope it works out.

If my posts seem a little bit rambly, it's cause I'm angling to get some more boxings.    Also because I'm trying to process my own thoughts, which are a little scrambled at the moment.

Edited June 18, 2020 by Magestar

[Walin he/him]

I’m also fine with people voting on me \:P. However, I’m a villager and will hopefully type out more before the cycle’s over, though I doubt I have time. Either way, I’m probably going to get killed soon since I’ll claim being a Firesoul.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Blast, I thought I had posted something before. I’ll put a vote on Walin, but I’m at a loss for what to do.

This late into the cycle I don’t think stating my Pulse target will change anything. Might do it during night cycle, depending on how different things flip with the lynch and the black market and people nagging me. I will say it wasn’t Walin or Mist.

[Kidpen he/him]

Huh. Alright then. Slightly worried about this but I mean I appreciate that people are actually voting now.

[Magestar he/him]

21 minutes ago, Walin said:

I’m also fine with people voting on me \:P. However, I’m a villager and will hopefully type out more before the cycle’s over, though I doubt I have time. Either way, I’m probably going to get killed soon since I’ll claim being a Firesoul.

I can't tell if this is reverse psychology or honesty but it kinda made me not want to vote for you.

I'm gonna leave my vote though.  Sorry.

9 minutes ago, Kidpen said:

Huh. Alright then. Slightly worried about this but I mean I appreciate that people are actually voting now.

What are you worried about?

---

Reginald walked through the now empty corridors of his prison.  Although he had only been here for a half dozen days, it already felt like it had been weeks.  People were quieter now, their faces sullen as they cast accusations at a moments notice, starting fights and ending them just as quickly.  The time spent captive was wearing on everyone, and the threat of death hung eerily in the air, weighing on people's minds and fraying their already fraught nerves.

Reginald himself was feeling it.  He was quickly running out of ideas, and he felt he had less and less time to keep his strength up.  If they didn't find the last of traitors soon... well, Reginald was beginning to think of taking his chances with Darson's guards.  It might be safer than remaining here.

There were a few more things left to try, however.  Reginald was not one to give up easily, and his strength and his wit had never failed him yet.  He was not the strongest of Metalborn, but he could hold his own in a fight if it came down to it.  He could give the traitors a run for their money.  But that was a last resort.  There must be something he could do to find the final traitors.

Reginald arrived in the central area, and looked across it.  It was much emptier now.  More than half the number who had begun here had died.  There were, in fact, only a few individuals left who could be traitors.  Reginald hardened himself.  He would find the traitors.  There was still time.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, the turn is now over! No more posting, PMing, or submitting actions.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Lerin was nervous. There were very few people left now, and he was one of them. Some people already had alibis for why they couldn't be one of the loyalists, but Lerin really didn't have an alibi. He wasn't out there killing people, he was for the People's Republic through and through. But the others didn't know that.

There were some arguments about who it could possibly be, and some accusations were thrown his way. "He's been hiding! Where even was he the other night? How come he doesn't talk much?" All valid, points, but Lerin just didn't want to talk to them, so he avoided them. That was a mistake. 

Eventually, the crowd grew tired of him giving short answers and answers that didn't tell them what they wanted to hear, so they grabbed Lerin and started beating him. They said they would stop once he told them he was a dirt loyalist, but everyone knew that wasn't true. So Lerin didn't answer. And they killed him for it.

---

Walin has been lynched! They were a PRE Operative Smoker/Firesoul Twiborn!

Walin (4): Ashbringer, Magestar, Mist, TJ Shade
Mist (2): Kidpen, Lahilt

PMs are still open! Make sure I am in them, along with Young Bard and Fifth Scholar. There will not be a lynch this turn. Items are available in the black market.

This turn will end on Thursday, June 18th, at 9 pm CDT, and the next turn will be posted at 10 pm CDT.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Karnage - Lance Neverwatch 
2. Elandera PRE Operative Soother/Trueself Twinborn
3. Elkanah PRE Operative Leecher Misting
4. @The Young Pyromancer - Pyria Young
5. Shard of Reading - Reading PRE Operative Leecher/Pinnacle Twinborn
6. Experience - Shard PRE Operative Lurcher/Bloodmaker Twinborn
7. @Lahilt - Lahlit
8. Ventyl - Lafay Etteax Loyalist Leecher Misting
9. Coda PRE Operative Seeker Misting and Hemalurgist
10. Matrim's Dice - Lord Cauthon PRE Operative Nicroburst/Sparker Twinborn
11. @TJ Shade - TJ Shade
12. @Emi - Lorinne
13. xinoehp512 - Neru Loyalist Rioter/Gasper Twinborn
14. @Kidpen - Villin
15. @Mist - Lumen
16. DrakeMarshall - Lorena Blackburn PRE Operative Gasper Ferring and Thief
17. Araris Valerian - Araris Valerian Kandra
18. Devotary of Spontaniety - Adomert PRE Operative Slider/Sentry Twinborn
19. Kynedath Loyalist Lurcher/Subsumer Twinborn
20. Walin - Lerin PRE Operative Smoker/Firesoul Twiborn
21. @Ashbringer - Faleast
22. @The_God_King
23. @Magestar - Reginald Kettis

Black Market:

Spoiler

• Medallion: 6 available (45 boxings)
• Charged Spike: 4 available (65 boxings)
• Uncharged Spike: 1 available (90 boxings)
• Dagger: 2 available (80 boxings)
• Bulletproof Vest: 2 available (35 boxings)
• Steel Trap: 3 available (25 boxings)
• Lerasium Alloy: 1 available (115 boxings)

PMs should be sent out as soon as possible.

Edited June 18, 2020 by StrikerEZ

[Ashbringer he/him]

Fantastic. Another mislynch. Just what we needed. I’m going to be taking a look at this.

But since no one wants to say the obvious... the Lerasium is still there. Pyro, Mage, you should both have enough naturally by now to try and buy it, and if we’re in a point where the Village can contest the Elims buying it than that’s what we need to do.

Since there’s an Uncharged Spike missing there might be three deaths tonight anyways, but now that there’s some time to discuss I pulsed Karnage last night. I think.

[|TJ| he/him]

8 hours ago, Mist said:

TJ Shade seems fairly village, providing info that can help us, even though I'm not particularly happy he revealed my role. The thing I pointed out last cycle is honestly nothing. 

@Mist, sorry about that. I actually thought hard whether to reveal your role or not, but in the end I decided I would. However, it kinda ended up helping you though. 
If you are an elim, we would hesitate to kill you since it would take 2 cycles. If you are a villager, elims would not attempt to kill you at all since they just need to outnumber us and they'd obviously rather kill 2 different villagers rather than just 1 village Thug over 2 cycles. 

So that was a bust. Honestly, even my suspicion of Walin was grasping at straws. I have nothing except maybe go for The God King, since they have been inactive but the elims went for players more active than TGK like Devotary, Elkanah/Matrim, and Shard of Reading. That's all I've got. We may not get a single shred of information from their lynch but we've got to finish all the elims to win. It's getting really tough to deduce 

We've also got another headache coming our way. An uncharged spike was bought the previous night. So we may have 3 kills tonight, and it still wouldn't be an absolute indication of Ash Pulsing Coinshot/Kandra/elim. Only 4 kills would make that sure. It wouldn't matter for long though, because even if we assume that the uncharged spike was bought by a villager, if the spike kill and the Coinshot kill goes wrong, we'd be at parity come D6.  

Edit: Gah, ninja'd by Ash.

Edited June 18, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Magestar he/him]

7 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Fantastic. Another mislynch. Just what we needed. I’m going to be taking a look at this.

But since no one wants to say the obvious... the Lerasium is still there. Pyro, Mage, you should both have enough naturally by now to try and buy it, and if we’re in a point where the Village can contest the Elims buying it than that’s what we need to do.

Since there’s an Uncharged Spike missing there might be three deaths tonight anyways, but now that there’s some time to discuss I pulsed Karnage last night. I think.

So um.  About that.  I didn't have quite enough last cycle, as I said previously, and I figured someone else would have bought it by now.  So I bought something else.    I'm not sure if Pyro would have enough either.  I could be wrong, but I think most of their posts were less than 200 words, so they wouldn't get a lot of boxings from them.

What do you mean you think you pulsed Karnage?  Are you unsure?

7 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

@Mist, sorry about that. I actually thought hard whether to reveal your role or not, but in the end I decided I would. However, it kinda ended up helping you though. 
If you are an elim, we would hesitate to kill you since it would take 2 cycles. If you are a villager, elims would not attempt to kill you at all since they just need to outnumber us and they'd obviously rather kill 2 different villagers rather than just 1 village Thug over 2 cycles. 

So that was a bust. Honestly, even my suspicion of Walin was grasping at straws. I have nothing except maybe go for The God King, since they have been inactive but the elims went for players more active than TGK like Devotary, Elkanah/Matrim, and Shard of Reading. That's all I've got. We may not get a single shred of information from their lynch but we've got to finish all the elims to win. It's getting really tough to deduce 

We've also got another headache coming our way. An uncharged spike was bought the previous night. So we may have 3 kills tonight, and it still wouldn't be an absolute indication of Ash Pulsing Coinshot/Kandra/elim. Only 4 kills would make that sure. It wouldn't matter for long though, because even if we assume that the uncharged spike was bought by a villager, if the spike kill and the Coinshot kill goes wrong, we'd be at parity come D6.  

Edit: Gah, ninja'd by Ash.

So.  Let's be optimistic here.  Lets assume the uncharged spike is in village hands.   

The coinshot is as well.  I say we hold a pseudo-vote for who each of them should kill, or at least give them some options.  I personally think The God King and Kidpen are both good options.  Karnage might be as well, but it's difficult to say.  

I don't really want to consider the possibility that there's another Elim who's just done a good job at hiding and is currently assumed to be one of the village, because it opens up a whole mess of possibilities.  But depending how this night cycle goes, I might have to take another look at some players that I'd assumed to be village.  I'm hoping that the easiest answer is the correct one, however.

There is another possibility that I'm considering...  I don't believe TJ covered this possibility, but I'm considering that the remainder of the Elims are inactive.  Elandera was the Kandra kill, an attempt at maintaining parity since they were pretty obviously village.  Kynedath was the coinshot kill, taking my advice.  And the Elims just didn't put a kill in.  Maybe Karnage and The God King, for the last two Elims?  I don't know that this is terribly likely, but I suppose it's possible.

edit:

9 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

This turn will end on Monday, June 18th, at 9 pm CDT, and the next turn will be posted at 10 pm CDT.

Thursday*

 

Edited June 18, 2020 by Magestar

[StrikerEZ he/him]

2 hours ago, Magestar said:

Thursday*

 

Gah, always forget to change that part.

[Emi she/her]

Ok, so we are still losing. And we'll pobably lose. So, mabe at least I'll try to vote on somebody. Karnage, Ventyl actually never voted on you, which is kind of suspect as he is an Elim

[Magestar he/him]

19 minutes ago, Emi said:

Ok, so we are still losing. And we'll pobably lose. So, mabe at least I'll try to vote on somebody. Karnage, Ventyl actually never voted on you, which is kind of suspect as he is an Elim

Actually, Ventyl did vote on them, on night 3.  Also, it's the night cycle.  You don't vote during the night cycle.

Also I don't really see how we're losing.

[Emi she/her]

9 minutes ago, Magestar said:

I don't really see how we're losing.

A lot of villages died

 

10 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Actually, Ventyl did vote on them, on night 3.  Also, it's the night cycle.  You don't vote during the night cycle.

Whoops

[|TJ| he/him]

40 minutes ago, Emi said:

Ok, so we are still losing. And we'll pobably lose. So, mabe at least I'll try to vote on somebody. Karnage, Ventyl actually never voted on you, which is kind of suspect as he is an Elim

Hey, Emi. This is the Night cycle where we cannot vote. And Ventyl did vote for Karnage during Day 3. 

I agree that TGK is a good target for whoever bought the uncharged spike. Hopefully the Coinshot will see this and go for someone else and prevent a double-tap. 

I'm gonna going to believe Ash, Pyro and Mage are villagers till the point where I have to stop believing. If I don't believe them now, yeah well I can't trust anyone else. That means 3 possible elims and a kandra from the pool of TGK, Kidpen, Emi, Karnage, Lahilt and Mist. If we soft-clear Emi and Karnage for elims, we're left with TGK, Kidpen, Lahilt and Mist. 3 out of the 4 are possible elims. For kandra (let's just say I have sufficient evidence to believe they were active enough to send out kill action during N4), we can removed Mist (because they would lose Thug ability) and TGK (inactive). Karnage was inactive during N4 as well. That leaves us with Kidpen, Emi and Lahilt (with an outside chance of Karnage being inactive in-thread while submitting a kill). We can work with this. I hope I don't get killed for this analysis. I really hope I'm right because if one of my trusted 3 turns out to be elim/kandra, all this is useless. 

Edit: Did not realise Mage and Emi posted while I typed this

 

Edited June 18, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Ashbringer he/him]

4 hours ago, Magestar said:

So um.  About that.  I didn't have quite enough last cycle, as I said previously, and I figured someone else would have bought it by now.  So I bought something else.    I'm not sure if Pyro would have enough either.  I could be wrong, but I think most of their posts were less than 200 words, so they wouldn't get a lot of boxings from them.

What do you mean you think you pulsed Karnage?  Are you unsure?

... Well, Pyro, saving the Village is up to you!

I just don't know if being redirected by a Slider or another Pulser would tell me like it does a Roleblock. I assume it does, but I don't really know. Also I was really tired last night when I posted that...

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

I'm gonna going to believe Ash, Pyro and Mage are villagers till the point where I have to stop believing. If I don't believe them now, yeah well I can't trust anyone else. That means 3 possible elims and a kandra from the pool of TGK, Kidpen, Emi, Karnage, Lahilt and Mist. If we soft-clear Emi and Karnage for elims, we're left with TGK, Kidpen, Lahilt and Mist. 3 out of the 4 are possible elims. For kandra (let's just say I have sufficient evidence to believe they were active enough to send out kill action during N4), we can removed Mist (because they would lose Thug ability) and TGK (inactive). Karnage was inactive during N4 as well. That leaves us with Kidpen, Emi and Lahilt (with an outside chance of Karnage being inactive in-thread while submitting a kill). We can work with this. I hope I don't get killed for this analysis. I really hope I'm right because if one of my trusted 3 turns out to be elim/kandra, all this is useless. 

I think this analysis makes sense. I will say, clearing Mist for the Kandra for being a Thug depends on when (and how) you learned Mist became a Thug. The Thug role is hard to prove without, you know, testing it, so I don't know if that can act as a full Kandra clear. But it's better than nothing.

Maybe it could mean something, maybe it couldn't. I'll be busy today, so I probably will only make a few other posts. I will say that I'm a little put off by how certain Mage was that Walin was an Elim Connector, but it made some sense at the time. But "some sense" is relative to the lack of sense I seem to be seeing.

What do I know. My specialty is just strategic analysis.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

I don't have the spike.

I'm betting on a Kandra/Thief/Someone who got really lucky with lynches/An elim who's been carrying out the kills.

[|TJ| he/him]

Found this Ventyl's post.

Scroll to see Matrim's response and Ventyl's reply to his response. Feels like he's a bit worried about an inactive teammate and wants to request a replacement, doesn't it? Kinda makes me suspicious of Emi. 

Also, I don't think a thief is alive at this point. Can anyone claim to have been robbed?