Quick Fix 44: Shadows in the Forest

[Coffeecat she/her]

12 minutes ago, Megasif said:

@Lord_Silberfarben 

Do you have any reads - top 3 village and top 3 elims perhaps?

Not yet, most of my gut reads are dead.
 

13 minutes ago, Megasif said:

One of which is El voting at random at this stage, when we've had a few cycles worth of lynches and posts and reads and then they go ahead and make a 'random' vote just doesnt sit right with me, and moreso because its on me when I know I'm a villager.

hmm, it is interesting...

3 hours ago, Elbereth said:

I'm going to throw a vote down on Megasif almost entirely at random and try to come back later with something.

...But Elbereth said they would probably change their votes later.

So it is a random poke vote i think, since they plan to change it.

if they do not change it however...

 

 

Also...

Thanks and everything, but...

Why ask me?

[Megasif he/him]

4 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

Also...

Thanks and everything, but...

Why ask me?

I feel you're village and sooner or later you may become a mislynch target so it's better to get some thoughts out, even if you're not too sure.

 

At this point, I just want a few votes on a wagon early on. 

Zillah.

Zillah actually also fits in the section where I put archivist and I'm going sheep joe both because he has a better read on most players here and I'm reading him village here.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Wait did I miss something? What's Sheeping?

[Furamirionind]

47 minutes ago, Megasif said:

One of which is El voting at random at this stage, when we've had a few cycles worth of lynches and posts and reads and then they go ahead and make a 'random' vote just doesnt sit right with me, and moreso because its on me when I know I'm a villager.

 

My assumption was that it wasn't random, but for some reason she doesn't want to share yet. I do that sometimes anyways...

47 minutes ago, Megasif said:

If archivist elim, its a bad look for fura.

I disagree. I think I've done my distancing much better than that. : P

47 minutes ago, Megasif said:

Honestly expect a little more from Fura here and will look at him if the current gamestate doesn't change. By this I mean, no core village group with similar reads or votes, our wagons are not going above 3 votes. Will probably villa read Fura if Elbereth flips elim here.

Are you saying I'm not contributing enough or you are looking forwards to my analysis post? Both are fair, just wondering. =)

30 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I trust Elbereth and Fura for various misunderstandings of the rules and random interactions they had. (These two are much weaker reads)

I've faked misunderstandings before due to people often considering it clear-able (including myself). Idk what misunderstandings you are talking about, but I wouldn't put it past El to fake these things either. I'll keep my eyes open for what you are referring to when I look at El.

19 minutes ago, Megasif said:

At this point, I just want a few votes on a wagon early on. 

Zillah.

Zillah actually also fits in the section where I put archivist and I'm going sheep joe both because he has a better read on most players here and I'm reading him village here.

I'm pretty sure Zillah is going to die to the filter...

14 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Wait did I miss something? What's Sheeping?

Copying someone else's vote, specifically without providing your own reasoning.

Edit: Though Mega provided his own reasoning, he is still primarily voting on Zillah because you did first. Hence, sheeping.

Edit again: Just an update about my analysis, will be coming soon-ish. I have one more chore I'm supposed to do, but to do it, I have to pass through a swarm of bees, which I am deathly afraid of so... Trying to deal with that a bit. xD

Edited May 14, 2020 by Furamirionind

[Elbereth she/her]

32 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

...But Elbereth said they would probably change their votes later.

So it is a random poke vote i think, since they plan to change it.

if they do not change it however...

It’s not a poke vote - I’m not just going to take it off if Megasif posts or whatever. It’s also not strictly random (but isn’t backed up with reasoning nearly as much as I’d like, thus saying I’ll come back later with more analysis, which I do intend to do)

17 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Wait did I miss something? What's Sheeping?

HAH I TOLD YOU FURA

 

[Furamirionind]

1 minute ago, Elbereth said:

HAH I TOLD YOU FURA

 Yeeeeeaaaaaaahhh

[CadCom he/him]

12 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I have one more chore I'm supposed to do, but to do it, I have to pass through a swarm of bees, which I am deathly afraid of so... Trying to deal with that a bit. xD

Sounds like a miserable chore. 

 

1 minute ago, Elbereth said:

HAH I TOLD YOU FURA

I understood sheeping. It made perfect sense to me.

[Karnage]

Hey yall, I'm back! As for me being suspicious, I don't know what to say. Thank you? Anyways, I haven't see Zillah on and they will probably die to inactivity, so I will not hop on that train. 

53 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I trust the Archivist because they voted on Silberfarben at a time when Arraenae could have been saved.

Not sure what you mean here, but if they voted on someone else while Arraenae could have been saved I think I might vote on Silberfan. Not only for this but I have had a gut elim read from them. So there is my vote.

[Coffeecat she/her]

Who is this...

silber fan?

That you speak of?

 

I am glad someone decided to actually vote someone they suspected...

sadly it is me

 

I still don't understand your reasoning(other than your gut read. if it is only a gut vote ok.)

I don't understand joe(I think they mean they could had a vote which did not go to saving Arraenae. AKA they could have voted someone in order to tie/get them lynched instead of arraenae, but they didn't.)

But why vote me because of this?

 

 

EDIT

Also please, ping who you are voting on, I missed Archivist's vote on me because of this.(I just realized they had voted me C1)

and i almost missed Karnage's vote.

Edited May 14, 2020 by Lord_Silberfarben

[The_God_King]

I have no idea what to make of this or last cycle, but due to the fact that Elkanah may be pulling a clever play with his vote last cycle I think I'll throw a vote on him Elkanah 

I'm intrigued at the tied vote and the implications that it means for the game. The terrible thing is with 4 elims if they're all active they have continual control of every lynch without being obvious about it. We need more activity and voting to keep the elim's from running off with this game.

[Sart he/him]

Vote Count
Megasif (2): The Archivist, Elbereth
Karnage (1): Furamirionind
Elkanah (2): CadCom, The God King
Drake Marshall (0): Megasif (Would you mind coloring your previous vote green? It's throwing me off)
Zillah (2): A Joe in the Bush, Megasif
Silberfarben (1): Karnage

I actually get on at a point where there's some votes. First off, why are there two votes on Megasif? They are the only player besides me that we know voted on an Eliminator. Plus, both votes have no reasoning behind them. Second, Fura is probably right that Zillah will die to the inactivity filter. I do support the contribution crusade, but we can go after more active targets. Third, we're in a three way tie. Therefore, I'm going to vote on Elkanah. I think they hedged too much when voting on Mist, and tying up the vote last cycle was either an honest mistake, or a ploy to protect a teammate.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Turn 2 Analysis:

I'm adding God King, Karnage and DrakeMarshall to my trusted list.

God King's Paranoia about the folks who voted on Arraenae feels very village to me, as does Karnage's vote on Striker. I can't read Drake one way or the other, but he's contributing a lot and seems to agree with me a lot, so I read him as too skilled to risk killing.

 

Quote

I very much agree with your point about the newer and older players meta, but you are also selling yourself a bit short 

Dang it @DrakeMarshall ! Stop telling people I'm good at this game! I want to live!!!! =P Also, stop hypothesizing about a Rae/God King/Joe Elim team!

Turn 3 and Onwards analysis will be coming later if at all. For now though, I am suspicious of Aman, CadCom, Elkanah, and Zillah, as I don't have reason to trust them as of the end of cycle 2. I'll vote for whichever of them seems to most likely to be lynched. Probably Elkanah, since Zillah might die of Inactivity.

[Furamirionind]

Honestly, I really struggle with read/player analysis, as I'm really good at picking at innocent things to make them look suspicious, bot not great at really pulling out suspicious things on their own...

1. A Joe in the Bush - 
   I'm getting a bit nervous of Joe.

   Joe's first post, all NAI content. Quotes Rae, but it's not particularly useful in determining alignment.

   Next post. The vote count here was:
   Mist (3): Brightness, Sart, Kidpen
   Brightness (1): The_God_King
   The_God_King (1): Elbereth
   Karnage(1): Drake
   
   Still NAI, especially as they didn't place a vote.
   
   Ok, I've actually completely forgotten why I was suspicious of Joe. I like their content this cycle, and even if they were my best suspicion, I might refrain from voting on them just because this is the first cycle with significant content. However I was thinking a Rae/Joe/TGK elim team might work pretty well. I don't remember what got me thinking that though... so take it with a grain of salt. : /

2. Sart - Village
   Started their post C1 when I was tied with Rae with 3 votes, and was arguing against my lynch.
   Also could have rewritten their post to be suspicious of Kidpen to tie Rae's vote, but didn't do that either.

3. Zillah - Inactive

4. Megasif - Strong Village
   Pretty confident is village. Was the second vote on Rae, and broke the 6-way voting tie in her favor. This was the votecount before he voted on Rae:
   Xino(1): Cadcom
   Joe(1): Sart
   Sart(1): TGK
   Fura(1): Fura
   Arraenae(1): BR
   Drake(1): Xino
   
   There are too many people here that are options for Mega to vote on other than Rae. In addition, he hedged a bit on Rae's lynch, giving him the perfect oportunity to jump ship if she posted again.

 

These are the remaining people I haven't gone through... But my reads are mostly neutral-village, which is pretty uncharacteristic for me, so I'm not sure. I'm quickly losing motivation for analysis though, so if I continue, it's going to take me a lot longer to post this... So I'm just going to post as is for the moment, and come back later... Again...

1. Lord_Silberfarben - Silber

2. Kidpen - Aradia

3. Elbereth - Crepuscula

4. The_Archivist - Archer

5. CadCom - Patience

6. DrakeMarshall - Verity

7. Amanuensis - Nok the Bard

[A Joe in the Bush]

19 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Ok, I've actually completely forgotten why I was suspicious of Joe. I like their content this cycle, and even if they were my best suspicion, I might refrain from voting on them just because this is the first cycle with significant content. However I was thinking a Rae/Joe/TGK elim team might work pretty well. I don't remember what got me thinking that though... so take it with a grain of salt. : /

Drake had an argument about that in cycle 2. can't remember what it was, but maybe that's what made you think it? But no, if I had been an elim with Rae, I would have voted on her in revenge for her betrayal of me!

Edited May 14, 2020 by A Joe in the Bush
Link!

[Zillah she/her]

4 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

My gut insists that Zillah is an elim

 

4 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I have a gut distrust if Zillah because of how they were talking to Xino (who died) about God King. My gut says they decided to off Xino partially out of annoyance, and partially because of all the clever codes they were making.

 

I don't like this, and not just because it's against me. I wasn't annoyed with Xino, I was trying to understand how the code system worked, because it wasn't making sense to me, and as for how I was talking to Xino about God King, I was honestly just trying to extend a hand to God King because of the situation the last game they played. And I related to their frustration when they said they felt overlooked because they hadn't been playing for years and years. I wanted to let them know they weren't alone and that their feelings were felt amongst others. 

EDIT: Megasif's vote on me feels a lot like they were trying to hide behind Joe Bush's logic, so they could get a vote in without having to say something that might make them suspicious, so for that I'm going to vote on them this cycle.

Edited May 14, 2020 by Zillah

[A Joe in the Bush]

Excellent! That's everyone. No inactive deaths tomorrow! And yeah, my vote on you was an extreme stretch. I just didn't see anything else votable in the first turn at that point.

[The_Archivist he/him]

13 hours ago, Megasif said:

It just feels like you're in a sweetspot where you weren't getting any attention and just existed woth very few posts and nothing standing out wheread some other players had a few larger posts.

 

@Lord_Silberfarben

Thank you  Megasif . I don't think that's a good reason to agree to a lynch (I may be biased), but I can understand it, and you are one of the people who I mostly cleared for voting on Arrae.

16 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

 

@The_Archivist I'm wondering why you kept voting on me? If I remember right, this is the first cycle you've voted on someone other than me. xD

I didn't vote on you C1, and last cycle I voted on you mostly because I panicked and didn't know who else to vote on. C2 and C3 It seemed to me like you were deliberately trying to confuse people trying to get a read on you. That still holds true, but now I feel more like I should vote for other people too.

 

Assessment coming soon.

Edited May 14, 2020 by The_Archivist

[Kidpen he/him]

I don't like any of the lynches here. Elkanah has felt relatively neutral and zillah feels village. That being said between the two of them I prefer Elkanah and I want to make sure a tie doesn't happen. Plus, like, I really feel like Elkanah hasn't made many AI posts and that feels like it might be deliberate?

Edit: also it's a little annoying br died because my gut is screaming at me to vote for her but I can't because she's dead and was good. So I guess my gut can't always be trusted.

 

Edited May 14, 2020 by Kidpen

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Phew this game is going by quickly.

I'd say cycle 5 is advanced enough in the game that I can start really connecting the dots, so to speak. It's been a while since I've done this and I was never really that great at it but bear with me and we'll see what happens.

It may be useless to say so, but we really need to stop coasting on a lucky break from the first cycle's lynch.

 

Players Analyses

First lets start with the list of living players and run some process of elimination:

1. Karnage

2. Elkanah

3. The_God_King - Their reaction to being up for the lynch a few cycles back seemed fairly genuine for a loyal crewmember. For the time being I am going to call that enough of a reason to eliminate them from my suspect list because there are too many people on the list who I have no read on at all.

4. Lord_Silberfarben

5. Kidpen

6. A Joe in the Bush

7. Elbereth

8. The_Archivist - I trust Archivist on the grounds that they were active at the end of the first cycle when Rae was up for lynch and cast a vote somewhere it would have no effect on the cycle's lynch. I find it highly likely that a mutineer who knew their teammate was up for lynch would either try to save them or try to cash in on village cred by helping to lynch them, but Archivist did neither, so I trust them.

9. Sart - Sart cemented an eleventh hour lynch against Rae, so I trust them rather a lot.

10. Zillah

11. CadCom

12. DrakeMarshall - What you think I'm gonna analyze myself? Nope that's your job.

13. Amanuensis

14. Megasif - I do not trust Megasif quite as much as Sart, but their vote on Rae is still more likely than not to have come from a loyal crewmember.

15. Furamirionind

That's a few less people I have to analyze, but still a bigger list than I would have liked. Why did you guys have to go and lynch a bunch of the people I trusted  Not that my track record is any better though, since the only mutineer we ever caught got lynched when I wasn't even aware the game had started.

Anyway, I will analyze the remaining suspects:

1. Karnage

   • The Mist lynch was an extremely obvious pick for the mutineer team, and I believe some of them would have supported it. I have already stated that I found Karnage's vote against Mist to be the most suspicious of the bunch.

   • In my experience, if you dodge the lynch once it means you're lucky, if you dodge the lynch twice it means you have a team supporting you. Karnage has dodged the lynch twice in a row. This pattern does not always hold true, but it does more often than not.

   • I actually kind of get a village vibe from the tone of Karnage's posts, though. I don't want to put a gut read before actual reasoning, but as much as I'm gunning for Karnage I'm only like 65% sure they are a mutineer (although that is still a decently high probability considering we likely have 4 mutineers in a pool of 15 living players).

2. Elkanah

   • Threw their vote on the Mist lynch fairly late, but in a way I found fairly non-alignment indicative. Observed that few people were defending Mist but was afraid to change their vote because it might create a tie, which I found kind of suspicious since there were quite a few people still online at the time who could have changed their vote.

   • Slight village read from their response when somebody else (I think it was Joe? Can't remember) gave a similar criticism to what I said above about reluctantly bandwagoning on Mist.

   • Created a tied vote which was not a great outcome for the village. As far as attempts to rescue a teammate go this would be a pretty brazen trick to pull, though, so I hesitate to say that is what was going on here.

   • When talking about Mist being lynched: "It was almost like the elims wanted us to Lynch her so they wouldn't have to kill her." I have a hard time explaining why but this sentence comes across as disingenuous to me.

3. Lord_Silberfarben

   • Has pretty much only been doing RP and responded to a vote on them. @Lord_Silberfarben please share your thoughts with us!! I am sure you will have something to say that we haven't thought of yet! Even if you share some reads with minimal effort or explanation, it still helps us a lot in terms of figuring out this game. I am inclined to keep you alive just for the sake of RP, but also the way the game is going we are gonna be forced to start looking for elims in the group of people who are flying under the radar right now.

4. Kidpen

   • Sounded fairly genuine with their reaction to Rae flipping elim.

   • Cast a vote against Mist out of necessity to vote and the fact that Mist had voted for Kidpen in a way that was poorly justified. This thought process to me seems more typical of a villager mindset.

   • Decided that Mist and TGK probably had the same alignment. I disagree with that kind of reasoning but don't actually think its suspicious.

   • Thought that shades were elims, which probably an elim wouldn't do?

5. A Joe in the Bush

   • Showed up with limited time last cycle and said he didn't suspect anyone who was being voted on. This is very understandable as I think it's been particularly hard to find a strong suspicion in this game. On the other hand I kind of want to suspect you for not at least casting a vote against a player not up for lynch if you believed it would be better than lynching the people who were up for lynch.

   • Has been posting this cycle with much higher activity and voted for Zillah. Right now I have absolutely no read on Zillah but we will see if that changes when I reach them on this analysis list. Regardless I am happy that Joe is around more now and that is probably a good enough reason to remove him from consideration for the lynch today. I am reasonably confident that his increased activity means I will be able to get a better read on him, and in any case I don't want to discourage being active.

6. Elbereth

   • I get a slight villager vibe from the way she went about the interaction with TGK.

   • Voted for Megasif this cycle which I don't particularly agree with but I don't think is alignment indicative one way or the other.

7. Zillah

   • Has 4 posts unless I missed one:

     • Two of them are asking for clarification about why xino's code system is helpful, which I don't really think is alignment indicative

     • One of them is checking in to not die by inactivity

     • The fourth one was made this cycle and was responding to being voted on by people, and then voting for the first time on one of the people that voted for them.

   • So, I would prefer if they participated more since their most significant participation so far has been wholly in self-defense, but I also think it would really be swell if our best suspicion at this point in the game were not somebody with such a comparatively small footprint.

8. CadCom

   • I kind of trust CadCom purely on the basis that none of the people I suspect are likely to be teammates with CadCom, because CadCom has listed many of them as their top suspects as well.

9. Amanuensis

   • Said he wouldn't bus Rae, which I definitely believe but is also fairly non-alignment indicative because I don't think he was around at the time Rae was up for the lynch regardless.

   • Has been busy and posting less for a few cycles.

   • Tried to join the vote on CadCom last cycle. On one hand this would have been helpful in the sense that it would break the tie, on the other hand more than anyone I know Aman likes to be sure about people before voting whenever possible so the vote on CadCom is kind of weird for him. In terms of trust vs suspicion this post probably breaks even.

10. Furamirionind

    • Asks people why they were lynching Mist when no real new information came to light since the last time anyone tried to lynch Mist, which... Would probably be injecting more logic than is necessary into village a mislynch if Fura were an elim. So slight village read from this.

    • As much as we usually work well together I feel like Fura tends to second-guess reading me as village a lot more so than is happening in this game. I'm honestly not sure if it's because I'm legitimately giving Fura less reason to second guess me in this game or if it's because Fura is an elim and knows my alignment already.

 

Verdict

I'm good with lynching Elkanah.

Most importantly because they rank high on my suspect list and already have some votes on them, but it also helps that I'm pretty sure their lynch will be the most informative possible lynch this cycle.

[Furamirionind]

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Asks people why they were lynching Mist when no real new information came to light since the last time anyone tried to lynch Mist, which... Would probably be injecting more logic than is necessary into village a mislynch if Fura were an elim. So slight village read from this.

Hmm... I actually thought that was going to look suspicious as I'm pretty sure halfheartedly defending villagers up for the lynch is something I like to do. (Cant quite remember as it's been a full year since my last elim game :'(  ).

Granted, CadCom is the only one here who has actually played with me as an elim before so, perhaps only he would have called me out for that.

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

As much as we usually work well together I feel like Fura tends to second-guess reading me as village a lot more so than is happening in this game. I'm honestly not sure if it's because I'm legitimately giving Fura less reason to second guess me in this game or if it's because Fura is an elim and knows my alignment already.

Lol. Well, I village read you early on (I played it off as a joke, but I was serious) for the most NAI thing possible... so I figured I could probably just assume you're village until someone else analyses you well. : P

I also realized this game that (at least I think) I have yet to be wrong about your alignment in a game, as I have always village read you, and you have always been village. This kind of makes me trust my read of you a bit more, despite it not meaning anything. XD

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Verdict

I'm good with lynching Elkanah.

Most importantly because they rank high on my suspect list and already have some votes on them, but it also helps that I'm pretty sure their lynch will be the most informative possible lynch this cycle.

You think Elkanah will give more info than the person who escaped the lynch twice?

[Coffeecat she/her]

I don't know why I don't like this Elkanah wagon.

 

"The last I saw there were maybe 3 votes? When I checked out for the night. Enough to lynch someone but also enough time for people to mount a defense or alternate lynch targets they'd push if she'd been an elim"

^^^ Quote from Brightness Radiant^^^

it is something BR mentioned, with so many players voting Elkanah, it is very likely some of them are mutineers...

So Elkanah is most probably village.

These big bandwagons are usually on villagers, or elim that did something so suspicious even their teammates were forced to vote them.

 

I might be wrong tho, i don't even remember why this vote was started

 

EDIT:

upon closer examination, i see that the votes are more tied than i thought, with megasif and Elkanah being the highest (i think. it is so hard to count the votes)

does anyone have a vote tally??

Edited May 14, 2020 by Lord_Silberfarben

[Straw he/him]

13 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

EDIT:

upon closer examination, i see that the votes are more tied than i thought, with megasif and Elkanah being the highest (i think. it is so hard to count the votes)

does anyone have a vote tally??

This should be correct:

Elkanah (6): CadCom, DrakeMarshall, Joe, Kidpen, Sart, The_God_King
Megasif (3): Elbereth, The_Archivist, Zillah
Karnage (1): Furamirionind
Silberfarben (1): Karnage
Zillah (1): Megasif

[Coffeecat she/her]

hmm,

interesting.

so there is opposition.

actually, the first vote was on megasif...

so Elkanah was the scapegoat for the mutineers (if megasif was a mutineer)

 

Edit:

Strangely, megasif is not voting elkanah. (cad com started the vote, and sometime later megasif voted drake. if they were the same team i would think they would at least vote on the same person.)

 

Uh, this is hard.

the worst thing is i love to be one of the last persons to vote in order to see how the vote pattern is going.

with rollover tho, i am not online at the end of the turn

Edited May 14, 2020 by Lord_Silberfarben

[Elkanah he/him]

I am absolutely village, but I don't blame you for lynching me... Okay maybe a little. 

Megasif and Karnage are the most suspicious to me. Both because of their voting patterns. I wasn't especially suspicious of Megasif until his vote against mist which iirc came right after mine, but with no reasoning. 

I'm afraid you won't get any information from lynching me. When I show up as village, what will you learn?

I find TGK's vote suspicious as well, but only for meta reasons. He likes to lynch me when he's bad. (But who doesn't). He might be worth looking back into.

 

[The_Archivist he/him]

1 hour ago, Straw said:

Megasif (3): Elbereth, The_Archivist, Zillah

Actually, I removed my vote, as it was a poke. I just couldn't figure out how to colour it on my phone for a long time.