Long Game 44: Shadows of Elantris Redux

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

11 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Why do you think the elims wouldn't start with the passphrase? It doesn't seem too powerful or anything, so I'm not sure I follow.

The passphrase can be shared, so an elim starting with it would let their team anonymously hammer a lynch every cycle. On days where the number of voters for a single person is less than the number of elims, that would let them lynch whoever they wanted.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

24 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The passphrase can be shared, so an elim starting with it would let their team anonymously hammer a lynch every cycle. On days where the number of voters for a single person is less than the number of elims, that would let them lynch whoever they wanted.

Oh. Very obvious, yeah. >>

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

14 hours ago, Elenion said:

Can you expound on what about it felt weird? I thought his guess that a Jeskeri was taken by the Shaod right as Aman was killed was a bit out there, but I'm more suspicious of Seonid's second vote on Devotary than DK's vote on her.

He said he believed Arin was most likely to be an elim, but then randomly voted Devotary one paragraph later. I'm kind of wary of people whose stated beliefs and actions don't line up. In addition, the guess that a Jeskeri was taken by the Shaod was a bit out there, yep.

I concur that Seonid's second vote is more suspect than Dalinar's first one, though.

12 hours ago, little wilson said:

It's not speculation that's the problem. There's nothing inherently wrong with starting from a group of players like [Elantrians] or [Princes/Princesses] and looking closer at them to see which, if any, look suspicious. The problem occurs when you become convinced there's someone evil in that group when you have no actual proof for that and start actively killing them one by one, and never bothering to rethink your theory.

I appreciate your clarification. It's totally fair to speculate at role distributions, so long as you don't hold on too tightly to them.

6 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I feel like Drake could have reached the conclusion that a lot of the Jeskeri have Korathi Pendants quite easily if he's considering the fact that the Jeskeri aren't worried about him, but instead he says that doesn't make sense because Aman caught one. I feel like him missing the most obvious logical conclusion for his own question is a little shady, like he doesn't want to draw attention to the possibility of the Jeskeri being hidden by scans. Drake also quotes Araris' post about poisoning Aman and suggests that Aman may have been poisoned by the eliminators(I thought he might have been too, tbh).

Another interesting quote from Drake:

Here he kind of ignores the possibility that the Gyorn could have a Korathi/Jeskeri Pendant to hide their alignment, and jumps to the conclusion that there are no evil Priests. Feels to me like he might know there isn't a Jeskeri Priest and that's why he's as confident as he is that there isn't an evil Priest.

Another post that I don't really like very much:

Because he's suspicious of me!  No, but seriously, not voting on Araris right away was not going to make any difference whatsoever, so I felt it was strange how he pointed that out as if it was suspicious.

And that's it until tonight, which you can read for yourselves. Oh, obviously, as my conclusion, I'm fairly suspicious of Drake. I feel like I might have gotten more biased as I went on, kind of what I think I did with Eternum, so I'm not as confident in this one, but yeah. I think he's suspicious.

I haven't lately been able to devote my time to this game, and if I died in this it would free me of a time commitment. If you are decided on this, I'll accept that without complaint, though I'd request to be pendanted instead of lynched to not waste a cycle of lynch discussion.

However, as you can hopefully see, I have been trying to put more into this game, so I will try to offer a concise answer to this and prove to you that I am village.

You may be mistaken about my ignoring the possibility of pendants; I did actually discuss the unreliability of scans in a different post, that you did not quote. Pendants can fudge scan results; that's one of the reasons that traditional "cop" mindsets are unproductive. But Hero would have to be a massive troll to give Korathi pendants to the entire Jeskeri faction (though I cede that shard GMs can definitely be trolls), so I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that scans would still be useful to some degree (especially since villagers with Jeskeri pendants are confirmable, and also in retrospect since one elim with a Korathi pendant is now out of the picture). If scans did not pose a worthwhile threat to the elims, then why put Aman in the game as a village scanner?

Personally I might be just a bit wary of anybody who said scans should be discounted. Echoing what is clearly said in the rules and warning that scans are unreliable seems like it might be an easy way to get village points while at the same time discredit scans that could potentially still catch elims.

About the priest, even if the Gyorn did have a pendant, the Odiv and all the converts could still be scanned, which would still give the Jeskeri a significant edge over the Derethi. I get the sense that the two evil factions are meant to be well balanced with each other, which is why I am so skeptical that either side would possess such a decisive advantage.

Finally about wondering why you didn't vote for Araris: I am wary of people who say one thing and then don't act on it. From your focus on analysis yesterday, I've decided you probably aren't evil, but I'd still maintain that declaring somebody is an elim and then not voting on them is behavior that deserved scrutiny.

 

2 hours ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Actually Aman didn't tell me who poisoned him. I told him.

I poisoned Aman.

Interesting. I kind of remember wondering if this was what Aman had asked you to do. But Araris' comment sort of made me think the elims had at least considered poisoning Aman, and I doubt they would have done Aman the courtesy of informing him who did it.

That means the elims probably didn't poison Aman, and thus they would have thought he might have legitimately been taken by the shaod. So that lends much more credence to the prediction that there is a Jeskeri Elantrian in play.

If on the other hand they did mean to poison Aman, that would either mean that Pyro is evil (for the record I don't get the vibe that he is) or that Aman got poisoned twice. @Herowannabe would there be any sort of indication if somebody got poisoned twice?

 

If yesterday is an indication, it would be good if more people shared their opinions on things. This is the best I can do to encourage that:

@Mraize, thoughts on why the elims would kill Aman when they did?

@Devotary of Spontaneity, thoughts on Seonid's vote on you? @Seonid, thoughts on the same?

@TheMightyLopen, what do you make of the plethora of princes in play?

@little wilson, now that Aman's poisoner is revealed as pyro, could you share the details on why you read village on them?

@Dalinar Kholin, what do you think the Gyorn's strategy would be right now? Also why do you believe an elim was be taken by the shaod on the cycle Aman died?

@Steeldancer, thoughts on role or item distribution for the elim team?

@Straw, who do you think Gyorn might pick for Odiv?

[Lord Meeker he/him]

27 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

thoughts on why the elims would kill Aman when they did?

If I remember correctly aman was a village scanner people. I can not remember for the life for me remember the name. But I don't think It was by coincidence. I would be surprised if it was luck. But if you kill the scany people ten the village juts has to guess on who to lynch. Correct me if I am wrong please!

[Dalinar Kholin]

22 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

He said he believed Arin was most likely to be an elim, but then randomly voted Devotary one paragraph later. I'm kind of wary of people whose stated beliefs and actions don't line up. In addition, the guess that a Jeskeri was taken by the Shaod was a bit out there, yep.

I concur that Seonid's second vote is more suspect than Dalinar's first one, though.

I appreciate your clarification. It's totally fair to speculate at role distributions, so long as you don't hold on too tightly to them.

I haven't lately been able to devote my time to this game, and if I died in this it would free me of a time commitment. If you are decided on this, I'll accept that without complaint, though I'd request to be pendanted instead of lynched to not waste a cycle of lynch discussion.

However, as you can hopefully see, I have been trying to put more into this game, so I will try to offer a concise answer to this and prove to you that I am village.

You may be mistaken about my ignoring the possibility of pendants; I did actually discuss the unreliability of scans in a different post, that you did not quote. Pendants can fudge scan results; that's one of the reasons that traditional "cop" mindsets are unproductive. But Hero would have to be a massive troll to give Korathi pendants to the entire Jeskeri faction (though I cede that shard GMs can definitely be trolls), so I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that scans would still be useful to some degree (especially since villagers with Jeskeri pendants are confirmable, and also in retrospect since one elim with a Korathi pendant is now out of the picture). If scans did not pose a worthwhile threat to the elims, then why put Aman in the game as a village scanner?

Personally I might be just a bit wary of anybody who said scans should be discounted. Echoing what is clearly said in the rules and warning that scans are unreliable seems like it might be an easy way to get village points while at the same time discredit scans that could potentially still catch elims.

About the priest, even if the Gyorn did have a pendant, the Odiv and all the converts could still be scanned, which would still give the Jeskeri a significant edge over the Derethi. I get the sense that the two evil factions are meant to be well balanced with each other, which is why I am so skeptical that either side would possess such a decisive advantage.

Finally about wondering why you didn't vote for Araris: I am wary of people who say one thing and then don't act on it. From your focus on analysis yesterday, I've decided you probably aren't evil, but I'd still maintain that declaring somebody is an elim and then not voting on them is behavior that deserved scrutiny.

 

Interesting. I kind of remember wondering if this was what Aman had asked you to do. But Araris' comment sort of made me think the elims had at least considered poisoning Aman, and I doubt they would have done Aman the courtesy of informing him who did it.

That means the elims probably didn't poison Aman, and thus they would have thought he might have legitimately been taken by the shaod. So that lends much more credence to the prediction that there is a Jeskeri Elantrian in play.

If on the other hand they did mean to poison Aman, that would either mean that Pyro is evil (for the record I don't get the vibe that he is) or that Aman got poisoned twice. @Herowannabe would there be any sort of indication if somebody got poisoned twice?

 

If yesterday is an indication, it would be good if more people shared their opinions on things. This is the best I can do to encourage that:

@Mraize, thoughts on why the elims would kill Aman when they did?

@Devotary of Spontaneity, thoughts on Seonid's vote on you? @Seonid, thoughts on the same?

@TheMightyLopen, what do you make of the plethora of princes in play?

@little wilson, now that Aman's poisoner is revealed as pyro, could you share the details on why you read village on them?

@Dalinar Kholin, what do you think the Gyorn's strategy would be right now? Also why do you believe an elim was be taken by the shaod on the cycle Aman died?

@Steeldancer, thoughts on role or item distribution for the elim team?

@Straw, who do you think Gyorn might pick for Odiv?

So, first I'll explain my original logic, then I'll go into why it no longer makes sense. We knew Aman was poisoned, yet no one had told us that they had done it. Why wouldn't a villager tell us if they poisoned him? They don't lose anything from it, especially once aman is dead. Thus, it made sense he was poisoned by elims. If Aman was poisoned by elim's we can presume they didn't send him (a confirmed villager scanner) to the Shaod where friendly elim's were waiting to be scanned. If they want him in Elantrist though, why kill him after he was sent? Perhaps they sent him there in order to make him less likely to be defended, but the more probable is that he was still a threat as Little Wilson pointed out. Thus, I thought it was possible that one of the two people sent to Elantris at the same time as him was evil. Perfect logic? No, but somewhat reasonable, not to obvious that the elims wouldn't pull it off in order to not give us info, but logical enough that it deserved pursuing. 

Given that I now know he was poisoned by Pyro, the whole theory makes no sense... It would have been really nice to know last night before I voted on him, which is why I held my vote because Devotary said he had a reason that Aman hadn't been poisoned by elims. I'm sorry Devotary, but your logic made no sense and still doesn't make any sense to me.

Gyorn Strategy: If I was Gyorn, I would convert people that are the least likely to die. Probably Elantrians and elims if I could guess them. Hard to say more active or less actives after that. For swearing an Odiv, I'd be patient. I'd swear an Odiv immediately and not have them convert for a night or two (from the original convert pool, assuming you know?), and have them start converting tonight when suspicion won't fall on them/you don't risk them being taken out immediately. If you swear an Odiv late it'd make them vulnerable because we can just announce whose been converted or tell by pm's, and either they can't start converting immediately (which makes them not very effective because the game is already late by the time they can start converting), or risk them getting caught. Of course, it increases threat of random elim kill or village lynch.

That logics a little meh, but the best my tired minds got for the moment. @Straw

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

7 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

thoughts on Seonid's vote on you?

It looks like he saw a vote on me and decided that his vote would lead to a lynch. That seems to fit with his activity in previous cycles, with him voting on players he didn't necessarily suspect to prevent an eliminator controlled lynch. I'm not sure why Joe chose to use a Korathi pendant on him, but that's a question better addressed by @A Joe in the Bush. 

9 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

I'm sorry Devotary, but your logic made no sense and still doesn't make any sense to me.

I'm pretty sure I explained this, but basically: Aman knew he was poisoned. He would not have been informed of that by the GMs of this fact when he arrived in Elantris. Unlike those taken by the Shaod, players who are poisoned cannot be Hoed and their Seons do not become corrupted. Aman did not have a Seon, nor did he acquire the three votes necessary to become Hoed, so he could not have thus deduced that he was poisoned. If Aman had been poisoned by an eliminator, they probably would not have told him. That implies that Aman was poisoned by a villager, which removes a disincentive for an eliminator team to send one of their own to Elantris.

[Kidpen he/him]

Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I'm pretty sure I explained this, but basically: Aman knew he was poisoned. He would not have been informed of that by the GMs of this fact when he arrived in Elantris. Unlike those taken by the Shaod, players who are poisoned cannot be Hoed and their Seons do not become corrupted. Aman did not have a Seon, nor did he acquire the three votes necessary to become Hoed, so he could not have thus deduced that he was poisoned. If Aman had been poisoned by an eliminator, they probably would not have told him. That implies that Aman was poisoned by a villager, which removes a disincentive for an eliminator team to send one of their own to Elantris.

Yeah, only we know that Aman had specifically asked Pyro to poison him, which he did.

25 minutes ago, Mraize said:

If I remember correctly aman was a village scanner people. I can not remember for the life for me remember the name. But I don't think It was by coincidence. I would be surprised if it was luck. But if you kill the scany people ten the village juts has to guess on who to lynch. Correct me if I am wrong please!

That's more or less correct. I think Drake was asking why they didn't kill him earlier however. Because there was a full cycle where they could have killed him but didn't. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

4 minutes ago, Kidpen said:

Yeah, only we know that Aman had specifically asked Pyro to poison him, which he did.

We didn't know that last cycle. Pyromancer didn't claim until this night. 

[Kidpen he/him]

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

We didn't know that last cycle. Pyromancer didn't claim until this night. 

Oh right. That was a post from before the claiming. I forgot.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Sorry for not telling y'all earlier.  I had RL things.

Also, if you want proof of my poisonous capabilities, check page 21.  I was talking about my vial of poison.

[Kidpen he/him]

FYI, the player list still says Kynedath instead of Jondesu. I accidentally sent a message to Kynedath.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I do kinda feel like I was overly suspicious of Drake, looking back at my analysis and now at Drakes response, so I'm moving my read from suspicious to maybe village, actually.

[little wilson she/her]

1 hour ago, Drake Marshall said:

@little wilson, now that Aman's poisoner is revealed as pyro, could you share the details on why you read village on them?

It's mostly gut read from both comments in the thread and a PM I've got with him. It's not a major village read, but it is a bit of a village read.

[Straw he/him]

@Drake Marshall Personally, I think that the Gyorn would probably go for once if the more active and experienced players, due to the fact that they’re less likely to be killed. Additionally, they might convert a Jindo Warrior if they can find one, in order to make sure that they don’t die.

[Steeldancer he/him]

2 hours ago, Drake Marshall said:

thoughts on role or item distribution for the elim team

I pulled out my book of notes. 

“There are a lot of clues here, but I prefer not to make assumptions about these crazy killers. However, if I were them, I would be packing a Korathi pendant, a seon, poison, and maybe some sort of power role, maybe? But in my experience, it is a far better thing to try and find the people themselves rather than the abilities they might or might not have.”

[Herowannabe he/him]

2 hours ago, Drake Marshall said:

@Herowannabe would there be any sort of indication if somebody got poisoned twice?

If a player was poisoned twice at the same time it would look the same as if they were poisoned once. 

If a player was poisoned and then poisoned again a cycle or two later, nothing would be indicated in the writeup, but it would reset the time they have to spend in Elantris. 

 

[Herowannabe he/him]

The Cycle is now over. 

Bear with me, my co-GMs are busy so it looks like I'm on my own for the moment. 

[Herowannabe he/him]

LG44: Day 4 - Edo

 

Kainae stayed up late that evening. After the disturbing reports of the murder of Enerin, which left strange patterned wounds under his clothing, Kainae was determined to see if any of the intricate patterns the Jeskeri used could be replicated. She painted, her normally cheerful greens and blues replaced by sinister reds, subdued greys, and the true black of evil, winding its way through the painting like a coiled, venomous snake, ready to strike. Kainae shuddered as she observed her work. Certainly not her cheeriest piece, nor her best, but somehow it seemed to fit the times like none of the others had. The patterns seen on the patriarch’s body were evident here, and Kainae nodded, satisfied with her work. She glanced over, looking at the window where her curtains hung, still undrawn.

And saw shadowy forms on the other side of them.

Kainae screamed as several men in masks, impossible to tell who from the veils obscuring their faces, burst through the window and shattered the glass. They rushed in unison, not at Kainae, but at her painting, their knives that worked so well at carving up men doing the same to the painting, reducing it to thousands of tattered scraps at the foot of the easel, floating gently to the wooden floor. They then rounded on Kainae. “Shame to kill her, but she’s a bit nosy for her own good,” the leader’s muffled voice said. “Plus, we can’t be leaving any witnesses, now.” The Cultists slowly turned to Kainae, their poniards gleaming in the light of the solitary lantern above the easel.

A tremendous report suddenly came to Kainae’s ears, and she instinctively ducked, a large peice of wood from the kicked-down doorframe sailing through the space her head had occupied a moment previously. A Jindo Warrior stood in the doorway, his sword drawn and pointing directly at the Cultists.

Caught between the choice of potential death, or leaving a witness alive, the Jeskeri chose the latter, the assassins darting through the window with near-superhuman speed. The Jindo extended a hand to Kainae, helping her to her feet. “Are you all right, my lady?” he asked graciously. Kainae grimaced. “I’ll be fine,” she said. “My painting… not so much.”

(EDIT: Oh, and special thanks to @Fifth Scholar for doing the writeup today)

---

Kainae (Little Wilson) was attacked but was protected by a Jindo Warrior!

Nobody was taken by the Shaod!

Convert Tally: 5 / 20

---

Updated Player List

 

 

1. Little Wilson: Kainae the Artist

2. A Joe in the Bush: Fenot the Alchemist

3. Eternum: Enerin the travelling storyteller Arelish Citizen with a Seon and Passphrase

4. Steeldancer: Bob the shoe-shiner

5. Straw: Straw the errand-boy

6. Araris Valerian: Elysian the orphaned worldhopper Jeskeri Cultist with Korathi Pendant

7. Elenion: Enelan, the Palace's head chef

8. King Cole: Bill the butcher

9. Devotary of Spontaneity: Sheodan, a soldier in Eondel's army

10. Mraize: Sahin Arehe, heir to the Are Plantation / ex-heir to- / it's complicated / Noble Merchant

11. Walin (formerly the Honey Badger): Eoni the grandiose peasant

12. Drake Marshall: Ateshao, an itinerant tinker.

13. Bort: Daoate, a member of the Elantris City Guard  Arelish Citizen with Jeskeri Pendant and a Seon

14. Randuir: Saoir, the Royal Archivist Arelish Citizen with Korathi Pendant and Passphrase

15. Kidpen: Amati the farmer

16. Seonid: Sheon Idris, a rockstar trying to get the band back together

17. TheYoungPyromancer: Aladdin, a guy looking for a lamp

18. Dalinar Kholin: Soren Porfiry, procrastinator extraordinaire.

19. STINK: Imperial Mint, an honest to Domi Mint.

20. TheMightyLopen: Nigel, a doctor of some renown

21. Amanuensis: Dio Brando, a vampi- really hot guy. Arelish Priest who had been poisoned

22. Arinian: Eilen the traveler with the mute talking swordArelish Dula who had been poisoned

Elantrians

1. Cadmium Compounder: Rhomil, an indiscriminate merchant

2. Droughtbringer: In, head of the Patriarch Seinalan fan club

3. Jondesu (formerly Kynedath): Angrin Nalti Gu Uda Sandrius (ANGUS), the WikiLeaks of Kae

4. Hemalurgic Headshot: Reth Liari, a stereotypical dashing vagabond with enigmatic origins

 

Edited April 20, 2018 by Herowannabe
fixed convert tally

[Lord Meeker he/him]

Gooooood job Jindo warrior!

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

I have a potentially pretty strong suspicion, pending a clarification from the GM.

[Kidpen he/him]

@little wilson Did you have communication with the Jindo, or was this coincidence?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Interesting. Two thoughts before I depart:

Only a single convert. Either no Odiv yet, or the Odiv is holding back to create uncertainty about when they were sworn. Or Odiv had a different action they wanted to take, maybe but less likely.

Wilson attacked and protected. Assuming this isn't an AG3 reenactment, I wonder if the elims had any particular reason to target Wilson beyond her being known as a skilled player?

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

She was generally trusted.

Also MAYBE something else...

Edited April 20, 2018 by TheYoungPyromancer

[little wilson she/her]

14 minutes ago, Kidpen said:

@little wilson Did you have communication with the Jindo, or was this coincidence?

Yes.

I was in contact with a person claiming priest last cycle, and I believe they might be evil. I'm approximately 95% certain about this. However, if I am right, Joe would certainly have to be evil as well. I'm hesitant to lynch the priest claimant without checking Joe's alignment first.

I need to talk to someone else before saying anything more, but there's a very good chance I will shed much more light on precisely why I was just attacked (or my guess about this, anyway, since I don't think it was because of the village reads).

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Joe.