Long Game 22: Corenne al'Daishar

[TheMightyLopen]

So we've got about 2 and a half hours now. I guess this is the time where we post another 80 posts or something, right?

 

I'm gonna move my vote from phattemer to Meta. I'm not certain about him, and his silence is odd, but he's my biggest suspect(I think I'd lynch him, Hellscythe, or phattemer). Plus, I very much disagree with lynching Elbereth. And I'll green out my previous votes now. I just wait until I know who I'm gonna leave my vote on and then go back and green 'em all out at the same time.

 

Oops, sorry Hael. Messed up your vote tally.

 

Argh, ninja'd my Meta now too. :/

 

Meta, my reasoning for thinking you were village early on in the game was mostly based on the fact that I thought your attack on me was genuine once I'd voted for you early on in the game and then Wilson agreed that you sounded like a villager, which made me a bit more confident in that read. Then, Sart turned out to be a Forsaken, so I thought it was pretty likely you were village, but your posts after that day just haven't given me a village read and multiple other people said so as well. So, I went back looking through your posts as if you were a Darkfriend and those reasons I listed was the 'evidence' I found(I say 'evidence' because it's not evidence as such, it's just the things I saw that backed up my suspicion of you some). I'm not sure what flip flopping I really did.

Edited June 12, 2016 by TheMightyLopen

[Elbereth]

I'm amused that you missed your own vote the first time throught, Hael. And most things on mobile are difficult.

Meta, I don't currently have any better suspicions than you, no. And that's certainly a fair point against me. It's also something you could bring against me in practically every game I've played so far. And even if I were an eliminator, I wouldn't know everyone else's alignment. There would still be the Corrupted or the Darkfriends to deal with, whichever I wasn't. So I'd just focus on trying to find those, and my suspicions wouldn't be exactly the same but I'd still have them. But I don't. Because I never do. Sorry. I'm trying to get better at that, but obviously it's not going particularly well. (In this particular game, there's also the case of me being traveling and tired for the first few days, so I really need to reread them over in order to get a firmer grasp of what actually happened.)

Clarification point - I wouldn't be having Mayor again. I've never been Mayor. I still don't think I'm a great candidate regarding today's situation, though, so my vote stays where it is for the moment. Was it clarified anywhere what happens in case of ties?

One thing I noticed already from my reread - I checked when the last eliminator was lynched D1, by the way. It was AG2. A game which Sart was in, no less. It's slightly strange to me that Lopen didn't point that out, given that he was the person lynched. (Now, that game is a bad example of a D1 lynch of an eliminator - it was entirely due to luck and vote manipulation, not an actual lynch. But it is the last time an eliminator died D1, as far as I can tell from a brief scan.)

[Araris Valerian]

Here are a couple of quick comments on some things that have been mentioned recently before I go reread stuff and post a vote. I don't have much suspicion of Meta at all. The only thing he has done this game that I took note of was his discussion with Wilson, which seemed uncharacteristically frustrated to me. I would like to know, Meta, did anything unrelated to this game come up with you that caused that change in tone, since you are usually very level-headed?

 

I also don't have too much on Elbereth, although there is something I remember seeing you post that struck me as off. I'll go back and find that for my later post.

 

I don't have a read on Aman at all, so I guess I should change that soon.

 

As for mayor, I will vote for Alain (myself). He doesn't really want to be mayor, but he can definitely get some stuff done if he gets thrust into the role.

[Master Elodin]

Wow. This thread is a lot calmer than it was yesterday.

[Elbereth]

I notice that we have returned to the pattern of very few votes to decide a lynch... I dislike that immensely.

Problem is that most people trust me, but enough don't that it's enough to lynch me. Same with Meta - most do, a very few don't. And unfortunately, even though the numbers are the same, I could become Mayor if I wished, and break that tie (EDIT: wait, no, three votes on Meta to two on me. Somehow missed Winter's retraction.). (Which I would. I'm not committing suicide just so someone who might be good can survive, regardless of how good that player is, when I know for a fact that I'm good.) And no other candidates have been proposed, except Joe by Bard (which has been discussed, and I agree, although I think there's only been maybe one pinchhitter in all the time I've played, and I can't even remember who that was) and Phatt, and Con. Phatt I'd be willing to lynch, but it wouldn't do us much good when we have a Wolfbrother going after inactives and wouldn't learn anything from it. Con... maybe? I don't have evidence against him any more than I have it for Meta, though. And I'm not very certain about Meta, either. (Although the fact that no one's jumped on to try to lynch him is a bit reassuring, given that if he is good the Darkfriends want him dead.) But at this point, I'm willing to compromise a bit if it means getting more people involved in the lynch discussion.

Edited June 11, 2016 by Elbereth (Lomion)

[Seonid]

Alright - I have almost no time at present, but I need to respond to Elbereth's questions. My apologies for not speaking up earlier - I've been in and out of wifi all day, and occupied with family. I've tried to stay caught up when I could though.

I am fairly convinced that Elbereth is a villager. I have several reasons to support that belief, but the largest is the important role she played in Gunshy's lynch. She was instrumental in swinging the lynch away from Elodin and to a Darkfriend. That's rather a good reason, I feel.

Therefore I think Aman is wrong, but I feel that he's village wrong. Purely gut on Aman, except that he's actually articulated suspicions and defended them. Like El, I feel that this indicates village.

On meta, I have it on good authority that a night action targeted on him failed N1. A thief taker in my chain of communication found that he performed no actions that night. This could indicate that he was detained.

If so, it makes meta a candidate for being either the perpetrator or the target of the Darkfriend kill. However, it's not the only explanation. He could have had the mask of mirrors used on him, or he could have been a Dreamwalker (I don't know how that shows up to a thief taker).

On such flimsy evidence, and with my limited time, I'm not going to vote yet. I don't know if I should vote at all today - a vote without reason can be worse than no vote at all.

[Elbereth]

Was going to edit it in but Seonid posted (yay): And yes, I'm aware that your silence hasn't been due to inattention, or at least I strongly suspected the same. I'm also aware that that silence will do you no good if you're dead, Meta. Unless your plans are complex indeed.

And... the thing is, I want to believe you, just like with Wilson. I want to believe that you're on my side, that you know what you're doing, that you'll take care of everything and it'll all be alright. But that's how I got caught in MR12, in LG20. I'm not going to make that mistake again. If that means suspecting you a bit more as a result and even voting for you more often than is called for, I can live with that if it means I don't trust you without reason again, much as I know you'd like that. I'm pushing myself too far in the opposite direction to combat my instinctive trust of you. That's the main reason I'm so conflicted about this vote. I don't know if I'm being unreasonable and pushing myself too far, or if this is a perfectly reasonable gut suspicion. And even if you turn out to be evil I won't know if I was being reasonable or suspecting you for all the wrong reasons until I read the evil docs.

Assuming your silence really is due to a plan... you're village. You wouldn't make yourself so obviously out of character as an eliminator. But I don't know that, and I could certainly see it as a clever bluff to get me off of your back. So. Bah.

Thanks for responding, Seonid!

[Metacognition]

Fine. If this is how you guys want it to be, I'll fully explain myself. 

 

I'm a Dreamwalker. I've used my ability every night. After we killed the Forsaken on the first day, I figured out that I'm basically uncorruptable and almost unkillable. I even hinted at my Dreamwalker status in my first RP, in case you wish to doubt me. This is also why Joe was unable to move my action; Dreamwalking comes before redirections. 

 

I haven't wanted to say anything for two main reasons. The first is that I was hoping to find out if any of the Channlers that wind up dead were the Darkfriend Channler (I suspect that they have one after all). The other is due to the meta. As I said, Fain can't corrupt me and by helping take out the Forsaken on day one, I'm pretty close to cleared. If my role came out (as it is now) then I did not want to turn this game into a Follow-the-Cop situation. But, by being in such a strong position, it wouldn't take long for people to wind up revealing to me. So I've been hanging out on the sidelines; making sure that I didn't make the game unfun for everyone else. 

 

Now, here's what I think happened. After the first day, there were still plenty of people that were somewhat suspicious of me; especially in comparison to Wilson. I suspect that the Darkfriends took that as a sign that, out of the two of us, Wilson was the most likely to get protection. But leaving both Wilson and I alive would be dangerous for them, so they tried to hit me. This is why there wasn't a Darkfriend kill on the first night, IMO. Next night, they go for Wilson because they figure that they guessed wrong and that Wilson would be open to attack. There's also the missing Fain Corruption. Considering that Elodin had said that he was going to be dreamwalking to prove himself from the wolfbrother attack, they obviously wouldn't go for him and I doubt that we were lucky enough to detain Fain. I believe that there was a decent probability that Fain tried for me. 

 

That brings us to where we are now, where if they can't get rid of me at Night or turn me to their side, their only option left to them is the lynch. 

 

Is this a bit egotistical? Definitely and I'm sure that I'm wrong about a few of those actions. But I think it makes more sense than a lot of the other theories that have popped up (Elodin being detained by a fellow Darkfriend to protect him by also drawing attention to him? How does that even make any sense!).

 

So there. It's all out there now. I'll probably continue to be somewhat silent because I don't want to influence the game too much from my position. But I highly doubt that Elodin is a Darkfriend and as long as he's been using his power every night as I have, they won't be able to get to him. So whatever you do, I wouldn't go after him if I were you. 

 

EDIT: Looks like I was at least correct about Night 1, based off of Seonid's post.

Edited June 12, 2016 by Metacognition

[Haelbarde]

Okay, that seems fair enough. Apologies Meta.

[Elbereth]

...Storm it. Now I have a headache.

Thing is, that does make sense. It's about the only thing that makes sense given your lowered activity level. As a Darkfriend, why not take advantage of the town's trust in you to wreak havoc? Same as the Corrupted. (We know for a fact that you're not Fain.) But as a Villager? I know how against dictator-like situations you are. So of course you'd try to prevent that as much as possible.

Agh.

Now, the other thought that pops to mind is that if you're not going to be helping out as much as you could, your death might benefit us as much as your life given all the opinions raised around you. And PMs won't go down, because Elodin's still alive (and if he's not a Dreamwalker although he likely is, there's almost certainly another Dreamwalker around somewhere - only one, particularly when that only one is you, is rather improbable). But that's... rather cold, given that I'm leaning fairly heavily towards your innocence now (which in turn makes me paranoid, but of course it does). And just because you're taking a backseat doesn't mean that you won't be helping, very possibly more than certain other members of the game (*cough*Phatt*cough* - seriously I will vote on you tomorrow to be lynched if you're not killed by a Wolfbrother tonight, unless you actually talk). So...

...If you're an eliminator, I'm going to be storming furious at myself after the game.

Meta.

Now I have to find someone else to vote for, don't I. Looks like no more reading Princeps' Fury until after turnover.

[Young Bard]

Joe, I hadn't heard of this 'pinch-hitter' idea before. I guess I'll take my vote back.

 

I doubt Gamma put 2 dreamwalkers in the game, which means that either Meta or Elodin is lying. Awfully convenient they're both untargetable to scanning. While I see it as even odds on being Meta, that's a lot more likely than Elbereth, who I have quite a strong village read on. If it didn't tie the vote right now, I'd probably vote for Meta.

 

EDIT: Vote Tally (more to clear my head than anything else):

 

Meta (1): Lopen

Lopen (2): Meta, Bard

Elbereth (2): Seonid, jaimie

 

Mayor tally is basically Elbereth by now.

 

Lopen, I voted on you because I know you're online and are able to defend yourself, and because I've found you slightly more hedgy since Day 1. (I didn't voice it in thread since... D1, but El can confirm that I still had that opinion slightly N2 in a PM.) If it's 5 minutes before rollover, and there's still a lynch tie, I'll take my vote off to ensure a lynch, but otherwise I'd like to here from you.

 

Also, only 5 people have got a vote on? Seriously? For what is apparently one of the most active games, that's ridiculous.

 

EDIT II: If you're wondering why I didn't vote for Meta, like I said I might, it's because I'm trying to find a way of determining who is the real dreamwalker without lynching them, and because Meta's offline right now.

Edited June 12, 2016 by The Young Bard

[TheMightyLopen]

Bard, if Elodin and Meta are both telling the truth about being Dreamwalkers, that would mean there was 3. DeathClutch was one as well. He was village and now it seems likely that Elodin is as well. So I'm a bit skeptical that Gamma would give the village 3 unkillable villagers like that. It's possible, since they can't be scanned either, but I'm still paranoid about Meta being evil. 

 

Don't know who to lynch at this point though. Phatt or Hellscythe would be my next 2 choices, like I said before. Anyone have any better idea's?

[Elbereth]

Okay. Just looking at the 20 players alive who aren't me, who do I trust?

In order from most to least trusted: Straw, Meta, Joe/Nyali, Aman, Araris, Stink, HS, Lopen, Elodin, Jaime. I'm probably wrong about at least one of those people, but to a greater or lesser extent I do trust all of them, and my reasoning for each is relatively solid. So that's ten people I won't be voting for.

Those are my initial reads. Looking at everyone else's posts... I trust Winter, very slightly. (By the way, ask me for my reasoning on any of these people later and I'd be happy to explain. I just want to get this out as fast as I can at the moment.) And Bard and Bugsy.

Maill I'm getting neutral on, and same with Sheep. Con... I've no idea.

Hmm. I could see Hael as evil. (This post strikes me as off.) Same with Seonid and Rubiks. Phatt I'd certainly be willing to lynch.

Yup, that's everyone. More thoughts on the four players at the bottom to come momentarily.

Bard - Two dreamwalkers is reasonable, in my opinion. One Dreamwalker, particularly someone as high profile as Meta, is going to get knocked out fast a lot of the time. But even without that, I regard two Dreamwalkers as a perfectly reasonable distribution. We had two good ones, even, in AG2. And in... LG3? Definitely LG2, but one of those was Unsnapped for a while... anyway. Posting- Storms. Lopen has a good point. Three is a lot. I don't know what to think now.

[Young Bard]

Yeah. I'd forgotten DC was a Dreamwalker. 3 is definitely too many. Not that I'm for last minute lynches, but we have even odds of catching a Darkfriend if we lynch Meta or Elodin. What do you think? Lopen

[TheMightyLopen]

Oh. Didn't see Bard's vote on me. I'm not sure what you want to hear from me about? I've given my opinions on literally every player just a page back or so and I've been fairly open with what I know and what my opinions on stuff is.

 

I'm pretty sure that both Meta and Elodin are Dreamwalkers. At least, the evidence suggests they are(they've both been targeted each Night with an action that failed).

 

Well, seeing as Meta got the votes off of him, I'll move my vote to phatt. Elbereth

 

I'm not sure how tied votes are in this game, but I think no one dies if that happens?

 

Edit: Aaaaand, ninja'd by Bard retracting on me. >>

Edit2: I'd say lynch Meta, cause I'm more suspicious of him over Elodin.

Edited June 12, 2016 by TheMightyLopen

[Elbereth]

Seonid - some circumstantial reasons (retracted from Sart here and gently defended Gunsy here). Also hasn't brought up suspicions any more than I have, and yet he hasn't caught any flak for it.

Phatt - as already stated, hasn't said anything that's not meta-discussion. I'm not precisely suspicious of him, but I'm also very happy to lynch him, and if no one else is willing to go along with these other candidates, that's where my vote's going. In fact, Phatt. Lomion. Sorry, Aman, but I'm really not interested in dying just because I was the person with the most votes left after everyone took theirs off of Meta. That'd be a stupid reason to die.

Rubiks - Feels wishy-washy. But then, voted on Gunshy. So... this is my weakest evil read of the four.

Hael - as mentioned, that post strikes me as off. And it's not so much that I think he's evil but that I think the potential is there. I can equally easily interpret his posts from a village or eliminator perspective.

And posting, because eight minutes left in the cycle is a bit tight.

EDIT: This cycle is pressuring me. I even forgot to refresh to check for new posts... And as a result got ninja'd. Twice. >>

Edited June 12, 2016 by Elbereth (Lomion)

[Young Bard]

Elbereth, if you don't want to die, then voting would probably be a good idea right now. I mean, whoever you vote for would have as many votes as you, and one more makes it a lynch.

 

EDIT: The ninja's. The ninja's are here.

 

EDIT II: To prevent funny business with Joe and the Ta'veren, Phatt. He's already dead - I'm just making sure the nail in the coffin. (Sorry phatt - I trust Elbereth more.)

Edited June 12, 2016 by The Young Bard

[Elbereth]

At least my ninja'ing of others is still going strong, I see. Edited June 12, 2016 by Elbereth (Lomion)

[A Joe in the Bush]

Bard, you're currently voting for yourself. You redded the wrong vote in your tally.

[phattemer]

I'm not interested in dying either, so Elbereth (Lomion). After all, I know my own role.

Also, for the last ten minutes of the cycle, this many votes on me is a bit much. (3 once Elbereth becomes mayor)

I believe that will tie it, unless someone ninjas me. That verb looks wrong, but even worse with an apostrophe.

[Young Bard]

Bard, you're currently voting for yourself. You redded the wrong vote in your tally.

 

Thanks! That... would have been embarrassing. I already retracted that vote anyway, so all's good.

 

EDIT: And Phatt, I voted on you too. So at this stage, you're still going to die... This is going to look really guilty of us if phatt is some super important role now.

Edited June 12, 2016 by The Young Bard

[phattemer]

Yep, the ninjas are here.

I'll reiterate my statement about a GINORMOUS BANDWAGON!!

Edited June 12, 2016 by phattemer

[Elbereth]

You know what would have been a better way to not die? Actually talking about the game. Sorry.

[phattemer]

You'll see.

Thanks! That... would have been embarrassing. I already retracted that vote anyway, so all's good.

EDIT: And Phatt, I voted on you too. So at this stage, you're still going to die... This is going to look really guilty of us if phatt is some super important role now.

How'd you guess? Edited June 12, 2016 by phattemer

[Young Bard]

Well, Gunshy was basically a ginormous bandwagon too, but that was one that was to our advantage.

 

EDIT: Are you roleclaiming? You're running on borrowed time here, so I'd type fast.

Edited June 12, 2016 by The Young Bard