Long Game 22: Corenne al'Daishar

[Haelbarde he/him]

I'm doing my notes differently this game than I ever have before and it's taking considerably longer--I'm going piece by piece through every post, summarizing it, and giving thoughts on it if I have thoughts on it. I'm only onto page 11 of the main thread. So right now, I don't have any thoughts on Bard, because I haven't gotten to the bandwagons and vote-switching. I will say that even when Nyali threw out the idea of Bard being the one to do the eliminator kill, I was incredibly skeptical of that. He might be evil, sure, but I'm less sure about that. I kind of want to get further into my post analysis before solidifying my thoughts there though.

 

Oh, and feel free to RP me as Fain. There's a reason I claimed it. If certain players are going to make not-so-veiled comments and ridiculous accusations like that, I may as well embrace it for what it's worth (even if it's an utter lie). Might get me RPing as well. 

Some the best RP of LG14 (in my opinion) came as a result of me deciding to write evil!RP because everyone mistakenly believed I was Odium. It's was certainly fun.

 

---

More for my personal reference: The story with the various redirects and stuff was:

Straw claimed to have scanned Elodin, but was blocked (or at least his action was unsuccessful). He was not detained, but rather Elodin claimed to be detained, which would answer the reason for Straw's action to fail.

 

Nyali claimed to have attempted to redirect Bard to Elodin, but we later found out that that failed. Bard claims that he didn't put in an action, which would be the reason why the redirect failed.

 

No DF kill, means either it wasn't put in, or was caused to fail. So either Elodin put in the kill order, or he was attacked (well, these seem to be the most likely). Purely looking at those interactions of claimed actions, I'd lean towards Elodin being village, but I need to go back and read cycle 1 and get a better idea of the general view of Elodin before I could decide one way or the other. Job for the morning, I'm afraid. 

Edited June 7, 2016 by Haelbarde

[Hellscythe he/him]

Aww, thanks!

My thoughts on why Cenn and Ruon are more likely villagers.

Cenn(Seonid) - from what I remember, he pushed for lynching Sart for most of the Day and was a part of why the lynch was so focused on Sart. He did eventually get off the lynch, sure, but I read his reasons as very understandable. The lynch on Sart wasn't based on any great logical masterpiece, so him being unsure about it like he was felt genuine when I read back over it.

Ruon(Bard) - Okay, mostly I remember his switching his vote between Straw and Sheep a couple times, which I think is what you're referring to. But at that point, again, the lynch on Sart was looking very odd, because of the bandwagon votes by Elodin and Straw(who made his immediately after Elodin), which cause Elodin to remove his vote right after that, so the lynch on Sart just wasn't that great of a lynch at that time and I think that if Bard had been an eliminator he would have been more likely to have just sat back and let the votes go rather than draw attention to himself by switching his vote like he did. His posts other than that have given me a village read as well, just as a gut feeling/tone kind of thing. Nothing except his voting has looked all that suspicious, IMO.

Thanks for the Mayor vote! I'll put my own Mayor vote on myself as well! Jak

I'm a bit suspicious of Hellscythe too, yeah. Both for his reasons for maybe future voting on you and for his examples for what could have happened with the missing elim kill, which didn't seem very plausible to me, so I'm suspicious he brought them up, as they're very unlikely scenarios which doesn't help clear anything up.

Thank you for your vote!

Role claiming does have some relevance to her being Padan Fain or not, I think, because of the reasons Wilson brought up. That Fain most likely will show up as a "regular villager" as scans because he doesn't have a role other than himself(due to him having his Corrupting Action), so those with roles are able to clear themselves of being Fain if they get scanned as having a role. I guess since his Corrupts are limited, it's possible that Gamma gave him an extra role, but that doesn't really seem like the type of role Fain is. He's someone who gains power by conversions which Corrupt the town. He doesn't have immediate power. I don't know, that's just the feeling I get. I've also been assuming it was either 1 role or none.

I agree that Meta and Wilson are both probably evils.

Jokes aside, I think I'll finally put my vote on Elodin as well. I'm too tired(and feeling lazy) to type up my reasons. Basically, bandwagoning(hopping onto different people right after someone else gives reasoning(he voted on me, Sheep, Sart, Straw on D1 immediately after reasons were given for possible guilt). His suspicion against Wilson doesn't seem valid to me, although I'm with Elbereth on this one, it's kinda odd rather than suspicious. I do believe his claim of Dreamwalker, but honestly, I think I'm okay with PM's going down if he's our last one.

Sigh. I'm having doubts about him being evil. Similar to how I had doubts about Aman being evil in MR14. Elodin just doesn't seem like he cares all that much about surviving. A ton of people are saying they're very suspicious of him and yet he's still posting about other players and how Wilson could be Padan Fain rather than solely defending himself.

Well, I changed my mind a bit. I'm still suspicious of Elodin, but he's already got a lot of votes, so I'll place my vote elsewhere for now. Hellscythe, what are your thoughts on all of this? I would think that you would have some suspicions or accusations to make at this point, other than Elbereth because she might have been converted. Your posts haven't been very substantial and you're kind of just staying in the background. Very nice place for a Darkfriend with all of this posting and misunderstandings.

And remember, as it stands, my vote counts double.

To be completely honest with you I'm leaving for universal studios right now and won't be back until after the day cycle is over so I'll try to read the thread in the car but I get carsick easily so unless you guys tone down the large paragraphs I'm going to have a hard time reading this cycle as well. I read most of day one, but again wasn't able to read most of wilsons, yours, metas, or elbereths posts. What I have analyzed is the lynch last cycle, the results of this cycle, and what's been happening with Nyali.

The lynch last cycle was a great success. Although I usually suspect Sart because of his awkward play style by the end of day one in every game I've played with him, I was tired of voting for him day one over and over and ignored him and votes on him all day. This of course naturally

gives trust to the first few voters, Elbereth, Wilson, and Meta however I honestly doubt that all of them are village especially considering there was a night one conversion.

The results this cycle. I'm not too worried about losing DC as I voted on him and wanted him to die anyways, however losing a dream walker this early could mean pms are going down in the next few cycles depending on distribution. My guess is the darkies have one dream walker. Orlok dying had no bearing on anyone except his only suspicioun was Wilson day one. (I think) The wolves should be killing their suspicions however I'm not sure that by night one they had all that much information to make that kind of informed decision which is why 2 villagers died. The whitecloak and conversion was expected, however the eliminator kill was not.

The reason I gave out the other reasons for why there could've been no eliminator kill is because just because one person was role blocked and there was no kill doesn't mean that persons automatically evil. I talked with Bard last night and he told me what actions he was sending in(none) and we role swapped and I trust him. So understandably I wouldn't want one of the people I trust to be mislynched just because there was no eliminator kill.

Edited June 7, 2016 by Hellscythe

[GunshyMink74 he/him]

Now that I'm able to be back online, it's probably a good idea to defend myself against Wilson's post. I don't have long so I'll just do aquick summary of my counterpoints. 

 

- Calling the beginning a "huge mess": Elbereth hit the nail on the head with this one. Being new to this, a "huge mess" is exactly what it seemed like

- Saying that I'm not going to vote until Cycle 2: Wlison's twisting my words a bit here, I never said I wasn't willing to trade information for information, I just hinting that I was going to sit back and wait for things to unfold. I most likely would have voted if my computer hadn't broke. 

- I shouldn't know the reps of other players like Wilson: Their reps are inherently obvious based on the way they’re talked about in the forums.

- Supporting Nyali’s obvious point: So I supported an obvious point that I agreed with, how’s that pointing towards being evil? I was just trying to be active on the forums.

- One short post against Sart: Slight twist to my words here, I never said that there was solid evidence against Sart, and for the most part, I just jumped on the bandwagon against Sart along with everyone else.

- Claiming Wilson and Meta "set people on edge”: A unfortunately damning mis-wording. When I said that they "set people on edge,” I really meant something more like “Make others wary of them”

 

EDIT: While it may seem contradictory, my second point is true, because I was trying to be unpredictible. Long story short: expect the unexpected

Edited June 7, 2016 by GunshyMink74

[GunshyMink74 he/him]

Quickly, before I have to go, I think Straw is being somewhat suspicious. He kept unnecessarily repeating the fact that his scanning was unsuccessful, and repeatedly asked for protection. 

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Role claiming does have some relevance to her being Padan Fain or not, I think, because of the reasons Wilson brought up. That Fain most likely will show up as a "regular villager" as scans because he doesn't have a role other than himself(due to him having his Corrupting Action), so those with roles are able to clear themselves of being Fain if they get scanned as having a role. I guess since his Corrupts are limited, it's possible that Gamma gave him an extra role, but that doesn't really seem like the type of role Fain is. He's someone who gains power by conversions which Corrupt the town. He doesn't have immediate power. I don't know, that's just the feeling I get. I've also been assuming it was either 1 role or none.

Why would Fain show up as regular villager and not as Padan Fain?

[Hellscythe he/him]

It's in the rules.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

It's in the rules.

Storms, I keep missing those little things on my phone.

[Hellscythe he/him]

"Well I guess that confirms Mailliw isn't Padan Fain!"

Not.

[Elbereth she/her]

The lynch last cycle was a great success. Although I usually suspect Sart because of his awkward play style by the end of day one in every game I've played with him, I was tired of voting for him day one over and over and ignored him and votes on him all day. This of course naturally

gives trust to the first few voters, Elbereth, Wilson, and Meta however I honestly doubt that all of them are village especially considering there was a night one conversion.

Really? Let’s see here. You’ve played three games with Sart: MR9 (as Deathclutch), MR10, and AG2. MR9 was your first game, and you never even mentioned Sart until he was killed. MR10 he was lynched D1... and yet you never voted on him or even mentioned him. And then in AG2, you referenced him four times. Here, here, here, here. The only post where you actually talk about him at all (the third) you put him in the could-go-either-way category (although you do say you're leaning bad). That is it. So... you do not usually suspect Sart because of his awkward playstyle. You have never voted for him, Day 1 or any other time.

Hellscythe.

I'm also not very satisfied with Gunshy's explanation, but my vote will stay on HS unless I receive a plausible explanation from him. I can't really think of anything, so that seems somewhat unlikely.

EDIT: I'm on a laptop for once so it may take a bit to figure out the formatting for the links.

EDIT 2: Got it.

EDIT 3: Size, which I couldn't figure out how to fix on desktop. Also, I hate reformatting desktop-made posts not on desktop. That was a pain.

Edited June 8, 2016 by Elbereth (Lomion)

[the winter system]

Winter has school and does not particularly feel like staying up all night again because of this game. Yesterday I had multiple study halls and still didn't say much. 
That kinda sounds annoyed, but guys. Seriously? Weekend = more time than weekday. 

 

Anyway, my thoughts. 
I PM'd with Wilson and requested to be converted if she was (I'd considered that possibility, but honestly, out of the two of the first voters, Meta is more likely. Not distrusting him. Just observing that it was just the first vote) and I haven't been converted. Haven't been converted by any of the other people I asked to convert me. (Only halfway joking -- eliminator-ness is fun.) Honestly, Elodin kinda just seems to be doing a 'REDIRECT' lynch onto someone the darkeyes know is innocent. She mentioned something about dying soon -- sorry about saying that -- which was confusing, but it did sound honest-villager-Wilson. She's changed a bit or maybe I have, but I trust her. 
 

Gunshy - still seems a bit off. Again, I trust Wilson on this and she makes good points about him. Something off. Maybe a 40, on the 1-100 scale?  

Nyali - What the heck happened here? Did they drop out of the gamee or what?! I'm confused. 

[Elbereth she/her]

Oh, one other thing I forgot to say - Meta, sorry. But your post didn't make anything clearer for me. I'm well aware that you go aggressive to test reactions. That's not why I have a problem. It's that... agh. I don't know how to explain it. You just feel different. And that could be because of RL. It could be because you're just playing differently than normal. It could just be me. But it doesn't feel right. (Thing is, if you are evil, I'm really unsure why I'm catching it now when in MR12 I was literally your strongest supporter. So that makes me more uncertain about this feeling about you. But it's there, so... I don't know. Maybe I've just gotten better at the game since MR12? I guess?)

Sorry for not being able to explain myself better. Since this is entirely gut, I won't be pushing it anymore or voting without having something I can point to and say "that is why Meta's evil", but I do have gut suspicion on you and it doesn't look like it's going anywhere anytime soon.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Okay, I've read through the thread twice now, and I think I have some semblance of what was going on.

 

Elodin is suspicious circumstantially, because of the role-blocking that happened, and I found his conversation with Wilson later on to add to that. I am comfortable voting for him right now. I also think that, if he isn't lynched, we might get some insight from whitecloacks during the night. But we are voting to lynch now, so I'm fine either way.

 

For some reason, Wilson's post about why Gunshy is suspicious struck me as off a bit. But when I went back and actually analyzed what she said, the point about there being evidence against Sart makes sense to me, so I ultimately agree here. I would probably vote for Gunshy as well.

 

Hellscythe also jumped onto my suspicion list by quite a bit from what Elbereth pointed out. I don't really understand why you would say something like that, when we can go back and check on it. I'm not sure if there is a good explanation here, but I'm listening.

 

I found the exchange between Wilson and Meta about the other one being Fain to be kind of suspicious, for both of them. But that is more because it seemed somewhat charged, and they tend to be a bit more level-headed players. However, both of them have made other posts in which they indicated frustration. So I'll wait to pass judgement on that.

 

Edit: Nyali, I want you to come back! You are a wanted player! (in multiple senses of the word)

But I didn't really catch any of that exchange or what Nyali claimed to be.

Edited June 7, 2016 by Araris Valerian

[Bugsy he/him]

Sorry Bugsy, I got confused with you and Seonid. That's what you get from trying to hold 20,000 pieces of information inside your head without writing anything down. Bugsy, were you the one who said Nyali and I were the two most suspicious players in the game? *sigh*

Nope, that wasn't me

---

As I have been reading through peoples arguments I am seeing reasonable suspicion on people I have already had some concern over, in my notes from D1 I indicated Bard, Bugsy and Elodin seemed as though they were trying to divert the vote away from Sart at the last minute, although I felt that I had good reason to suspect Straw at the time these have been my top suspects since the end of D1. I was going to try and do a full on analysis of everyone but not only do I just not have enough time >.> I also don't think my opinion counts for much at this point so I don't really want to waste my time putting it all down here.

For now I am going to put a vote on Bugsy because I agree with meta (who I feel trusting of at this point) that the lack of defense for Elodin is suspicious as well. Although hes still on my list I find it very odd that its been so easy to point the finger at him.

He ran with my suspicions of straw VERY quickly on D1, at the time I was flattered because I thought I had made some good arguments.. but then I became suspicious of the possibility of people trying to start another bandwagon to save Sart last minute. He was not very active before that, and was gone after that comment even though he said the vote was to see where the discussing led. I guess my reasoning is that I am suspicious of the other two but they have been active in defending themselves and so by voting for Bugsy now I will have a chance to see what he says about it.

Well. Wow. That's actually a very logical argument, especially for a newer player. My read for you is incresasingly villager, especially because of that accusation of me, ironically. Honestly, though, I'm not an elim. I felt like the argument against Sart was weak anyways (as I said here), and was only voting on her to possibly gain some information from their role reveal on death with which to analyze everyone else. If I were trying to save her from the lynch, I wouldn't have voted for her in the first place. Instead, I would have just looked for a scapegoat and voted on them instead. I definitely wouldn't have abandoned the tried and true strategy of attempting to stop the lynch at first then distancing myself when it became practically inevitable (I did literally the opposite, starting with voting on her (and offering a new reason to do so), then switching off towards the end). When you proposed Straw as a lynch, I felt as if he was definitely more suspicious, and lynching based on our "evidence" against Sart was leaving somewhat of a bad taste in my mouth. Usually, I'm content to just watch and add my thoughts when I feel they're unique or needed, but with the bandwagon on Sart at the time I realized that unless the balance was changed quickly (end of the day and all), it wouldn't get the discussion it warranted, since any discussion wouldn't have a chance of altering the lynch, and therefore couldn't yield as much information. I didn't show up after because no new information was introduced until straw himself claimed about 3 hours later, and as all responses to your comment tended to be variations of the same information, there was little additional ideas or analysis available to do. Oh, and don't think your opinion doesn't count for much, your unique perspective in and of itself is helpful, and with the analysis you're doing, I wouldn't be surprised if you become a very high level player eventually. (If you think I'm just flattering you to ease suspicion, wait until my alignment reveal if/when I die. I'm telling the truth )

Sorry in advance for any formatting errors. I'll try to fix them ASAP

Edit: Whoo! No formatting errors! Never mind, ignore the line above

Edit 2: Just realized an error in here. Straw didn't claim 3 hours later, he claimed 27 hours later. I only checked the difference between time, not days

Edited June 8, 2016 by Bugsy6912

[Seonid he/him]

Just for reference, since there are 10 pages to look through.

 

Vote Tally:

 

Straw (2*): Bard-1*, Gunshy

Elodin (5*): Straw, Conquestor, Elbereth-1*, Bard-2*, Winter

Hellscythe (4* net): Lopen (+1), Elbereth-2*, Araris

Wilson (1): Elodin

Bard (3): Nyali, Seonid, Meta

Winter (1): Twei

Bugsy (1): Jaime

 

Mayor Vote:

Wilson (1): Conquestor

Lopen (3): Meta, Seonid, Elbereth

Haelbarde (1): Mailliw

 

*These votes are from people who have 2 votes in red and none in green - if my reckoning is correct. Elbereth's first vote is on Elodin, but she later voted on Hellscythe without retracting. Bard voted on Straw, but later on Elodin without retracting. I don't know how Gamma will adjudicate that situation. If he counts first votes only, then Straw has 2, Elodin 4, Hellscythe 3. If he counts most recent vote only, then Straw has 1, Elodin and Hellscythe 4. If he cancels the vote of anyone who has multiple votes outstanding, then Straw has 1, Elodin and Hellscythe 3.

 

Lopen is the presumptive mayoral nominee at present, so his vote will count double.

 

If you see any errors, please let me know so that I can correct them. I make no guarantees that I haven't missed

[STINK he/him]

Btw, I'm on mobile right now so can't be bothered to do colours, but if people post after this then I'll make a new post voting Meta for mayor, and if not then this will just be edited but feel free to have more time to tell me that this is wrong

[Bugsy he/him]

I actually think Meta would be a good choice for mayor, Stink. I really don't like the idea of the same person having mayor 2 nights in a row. It provides too much of a basis for corruption

Edited to remove mayoral vote. I really don't like ties

Edited June 8, 2016 by Bugsy6912

[STINK he/him]

Oh cool someone who agrees with me you're a cool guy Bugsy. I'll send ya a PM at night and you can be my second PM, it's an honour I know.

[Elbereth she/her]

Thanks, Seonid. I was going to change that but forgot by the time I was finished going through a large chunk of three different games. >> Elodin. I'll go back and edit the relevant post later when I have time to find it.

 

Bugsy - even when we're almost certainly going to vote for a new Mayor tomorrow if we don't elect a new one today? Two nights isn't all that long in my view, and I'm fine with keeping Lopen for another day. (Obviously, I don't think Meta should be made Mayor, but that's my personal opinion and separate from the question of whether we should have a new Mayor. Which I would be okay with, but I also would be fine with leaving Lopen alone for another day.) Plus, I'm not sure why Fain would want to convert a Mayor so badly? Mayors are trusted (ish), sure, but they also have a lot of attention on them, so... there are pros and cons.

[STINK he/him]

Meta.

 

None of you should be surprised I'm feeling quite sincere this game tbh. Exams bringing out the confused side of STINK (as if STINK is never confused)

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Just a heads up, there is ~5 hours and 40 minutes left in the cycle!

[STINK he/him]

Woah guys why you being so quiet like cmon this is something that could upset the Lynch as it stands right now and I'm gonna go to sleep soon so please just like vote for me or something just don't sit there getting confused like me thanks in advance please come again

[Young Bard he/him]

Just to clarify, I am not voting for Straw. I forgot to green it out.

 

And, Hellscythe RC'd to me in the PM last night. They're village.

[AliasSheep]

Oh Harmony, I get back and have 102 notifications...  Let me just read back a bit...

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Just to clarify, I am not voting for Straw. I forgot to green it out.

 

And, Hellscythe RC'd to me in the PM last night. They're village.

Hellscythe also roleclaimed to me. I'm willing to believe his claim for now, but it doesn't put him on either side actually. Have you roleclaimed yet, Bard?

[Master Elodin]

Well, seeing as the top candidates for the lynch are me and Hellscythe, I guess I'll have to pick between the two. Hmm. Let's see. Hellscythe did something very suspicious, and I am me. Well, this is hard. I guess I'll have to pick Hellscythe.

EDIT: Even though you distrust me, I think that you would make a good mayor again, Jak.

Edited June 8, 2016 by Master Elodin