little wilson she/her Posted January 9, 2015 Posted January 9, 2015 (edited) Okay. This took far longer than I’d anticipated, although I did collect a lot more data than I a did last night, so that probably has something to do with it. I’d apologize to everyone--but especially Araris--for the wall of text you’re about to get. Fortunately, there will be a lot of quotes to break it up. Does that make it better? There are two situations I’d like to focus on. Eol’s Social Experiment and The Lynch on Satrams. I’ll mostly be paraphrasing what people say, unless I want to make specific mention of their wording or bring special note to a certain part of the post. Regardless, all links to the original posts will be given. Eol’s Social Experiment The first evidence of Eol’s Social Experiment began with this post by Winter at 6:37 am MST on Saturday. How are we going to find out the Seeking results if we don't reveal who the Seekers are, exactly? Kas responded 3 minutes later with an explanation about the seeker role and such, and Winter followed up at 6:43 with a little more information about the situation: If someone accuses me of being a role, but if I'm not actually the role, then what do I say in this thread? I could say they aren't a Seeker, but that isn't confirmed. They could have Seeked someone else, but just guessed on me. Renegade responded almost an hour after that: I'd suggest revealing their name in-thread, and saying that they failed to correctly Seek your role. That would basically narrow it down to either them or you being Spiked (or a Villager trying to pull off a crazy gambit). And Winter, 2 minutes later. I’d like to point out that she has been extremely reasonable and rational up to this point. She didn’t jump out and accuse Eol, but she brought it up for discussion in the thread, asking questions and divulging information, but not revealing too much. And the responses, particularly that by Ren, were good. Wyrm responded at 7:56 am MST. The pertinent part of his post is the first paragraph: If they're trying to bluff being a Seeker, then they're almost certainly an Eliminator. The possibility of them being a and trying to draw fire is a little silly, since it just makes us focus on someone who's on our side. The rest of his post emphasizes the fact that there are no safe roles in the game so we need to be wary of Seekers. This is a very valid point that still holds up now. Back to the quoted part though. This initially seems like a reasonable point, and it is. However, looking at it with a little more knowledge on the situation as it unfolds later, I find it interesting that without know who did it and what exactly was done, much less an explanation on the part of the person, Wyrm says that “they’re almost certainly a manipulator,” because no one on our side could possibly do this. For the most part, that’s right. But crazy Villager-led gambits happen (like Gamma’s gambit against Joe in LG3). Not often, but they do. I find it interesting that before any more information is here, he says this. Another point here is that by saying that the person is almost certainly an eliminator, it sets things up at least a bit for this post by Ostrich, posted less than 10 minutes later. I was accused of being a certain role by the same user who accused Winter Cloud. If you have suffered accusations, please contact us. It’s the wording here that intrigues me, “accused” and “suffered,” when he could use far less provoking words. Add to that the fact that he wants to take the whole discussion about it into PMs and I’m concerned. I understand if they just want to make sure they were all accused by the same person and accused of the same role. But why must they have further discussion than that? Wouldn’t it be better to discuss that fully here in the thread? Behind scenes makes it much easier for someone to manipulate others, turning reasonable suspicion into “Let’s kill who did this.” And I have reason to believe that’s exactly what happened. But before we get to that point, let’s carry on. There’s are a few questions brought up by Mek, Wyrm, and Maill about the pseudo-Seeker. Mek’s post was about 3 hours after Ostrich’s, at 11:16 am MST, with Wyrm’s at 11:26 am, and Maill’s at 1:10 pm. Then Maill posted again at 1:42, voting for Eol and revealing him as the person behind it and wanting to know why he’s fishing for roles. Less than a minute later, Ostrich also responded with a vote on Eol, not having seen Maill’s post, but deciding that he’s going to keep his vote on Eol. He also mentions that Eol’s been asking about the Tineye specifically. Lord Pifferdoo replies 3 minutes later, mentions that he’s not sure what exactly Eol is trying to do but that the message was rather blunt. Wyrm responds at 1:57 pm, wondering why Eol would contact people like this, but that he won’t vote for him yet as he would like an explanation. Ren thinks that if Eol is spiked, he’s trying to get some of those 5 to be trusted, but Ren isn’t sure how expects to get away with all of it. Ostrich, at 2:43 pm, echoes Wyrm’s call for an explanation from Eol, before the votes are finalized. Renegade, at 4:16 pm, says that he thinks Eol is a Spiked Tineye. I’d quote this one, but it’s rather long. The point is that there are some discrepancies with it, in the light of the knowledge we learned after this--like that far more players were contacted than we’d initially thought. He also acknowledges that this is “awfully early” for the Spiked to “pull this kind of stunt.” Claincy, at 4:45 pm, says that he doesn’t think Eol is spiked. The gambit probably isn’t likely to bear any fruit, and to paint a target on yourself just on the chance you find a Tineye isn’t a great plan. He mentions that team factor in planning with Spiked and how, if Eol was Spiked, his team would’ve discouraged it. He acknowledged that if Eol is a Spiked Tineye, it’s possible but it’s a “rather brash and risky action,” and ultimately, Claincy thinks Eol isn’t, but that feeling isn’t certain. At 5:21 pm, Jain said he was also contacted by Eol, but that Eol said the messages were an “icebreaker.” Jain thinks that because Eol hasn’t stepped forward to defend himself, he seems “awfully erratic, if not suspicious.” This “icebreaker” comment was backed up 40 minutes later by Weiry. I’d like to bring particular mention to these two comments, since both of them substantiate Eol’s statement that this was a social experiment. They were an “icebreaker” meant to start conversation, although admittedly, icebreakers should relieve tension, and this did quite the opposite. Still, it is a way to start a conversation, particularly in these types of games. Seonid posted at 6:16, worried about the bandwagon on Eol. S/he would like a day 1 lynch with more info, and it doesn’t seem like we’re likely to get one by lynching Eol, whether he’s Spiked or not. Winter returns to the thread at 6:23, about 11.5 hours after her last post in the thread, saying that she is “convinced” that Eol is an eliminator. However, she’s not going to vote for him, as she doesn’t want to be part of a bandwagon. This post intrigues me, despite it’s shortness. The last time she posted, she was reasonable. She was rational. She was discussing. She was suspicious, but she wasn’t so certain as to need a lynch. What changed? ….We don’t know. She was in PMs that entire time. But her stance is a quite a flip. I’m certain she was manipulated. The next post was me, at 6:47. I mentioned that there were only two votes on Eol, so not a bandwagon and that he hadn’t defended himself yet, probably because his plan was working out exactly like he wanted. I then backed up Ren’s idea of the Spiked Tineye and explained it a little more, saying that there were a couple who bit on Eol’s PMs. Ren posted at 7:24, not knowing what to do but that even if he is a Tineye, we might not want to lynch him. However, if we do, we’ll gain some information about who to trust/who not to trust depending on his alignment. Seonid, at 7:36, needs to think because I had “disturbingly good reasoning” (of which, I’m not proud of, by the way), and find Eol more suspicious now. S/He doesn’t want to vote yet, but they’re leaving the option open. The fact that Eol’s been online but hasn’t defended himself could be telling. Eol finally arrives, at 8:16 pm. He apologizes for not replying and gives the reasons why--he’s either been asleep or at work, so he’s checked the thread, but hasn’t been able to respond. He’ll respond shortly. In the time he’s writing his response, Mek, Araris, and Seonid post. Mek says that while it’s a “pretty dumb strategy” for an eliminator to stick their neck out like that in sending a bunch of “scary-looking PMs,” the “nature of his inquiry is suspicious.” Tineyes are better left anonymous. He votes for Eol. Araris doesn’t think killing Eol is imperative as he doesn’t have a dangerous role if we’re right about him being a Tineye. Plus, the spiked probably have an emotional allomancer. Seonid says that s/he wants to hear the defense before deciding about the innocence. Eol’s explanation. Posted at 9:04 pm. First, he listed the players contacted, and the times the messages were sent. He then listed the players not contacted and provides reasons for why (either intimidation or he couldn’t find them in the messenger). As to why I did what I did. It’s no secret that a lot of value is placed on peoples past behaviours, habits and their general game styles, and this becomes a big advantage to the more experienced players who have been playing with each other for some time. What I did, and I loath to call it trolling or phishing, was more an experiment. I wanted to see how people would react to edgy or sensitive stimulus, and what would be more sensitive than an accusation about roles. In doing so I could gauge them as a player, and continue profiling people and lessen the gap between more experienced players and myself, as a newer member. It has already been pointed out that expecting to ferret out a tineye or any other pertinent information would be foolhardy, and I completely agree. I no way do I trust or plan to act on acting upon any information in the replies to my experiment, as I respect anyone who plays this game far too much to believe that they would give me anything usable. However the tone and the wording or any other indications I can find about someone’s personality will go down in my notes and I hope, help me later on. Perhaps some may see my actions as foolish, suspicious or erratic, and if I die for doing something outside the expected, then so be it. Any questions please ask away. Emphasis mine. What he says is true: a lot of players place value on past behaviors and play styles. That’s fact. That’s part of the reason a lot of people have remained silent in this game, because they feel they don’t have much to add. I don’t think that’s a good thing. Eol came up with a way to somewhat close the gap and put him in a position to participate better. He acted on it. Foolish, yes. He didn’t expect it to bear fruit (which he acknowledges here, and many others acknowledged. And, in fact, only one PM did bear fruit in the form of a bite. So he was mostly right). Then comes some discussion about it, from Mek and Araris with Eol responding to them. Ash debated with Eol about it, with Ash insisting that it’s more logical for Eol to a Spiked Tineye, since he didn’t continue talking to gather more information. Ash laid out a better way to do the plan, involving Claincy and I beforehand. Eol replied that Ash is being to paranoid and while short answers may only provide a starting point for the profile, other people may have been more talkative. He didn’t think it would be discussed as much in the thread as it was. Ultimately, in the course of all this, Araris, Newan, Joe, Claincy, Wyrm, Ash (who was swayed by the debate they had), dowanx, me, and Mek (due to a comment I made about this) were convinced at least enough to say he probably wasn’t spiked, although different people had varying levels of suspicion remaining on him. Winter retained her suspicions on him, but declined to vote. Kas stated both sides of the issue, equally. And Ostrich, who was called out by Wyrm, initially removed his vote after saying he didn’t like the trolling attempt and is a new player and paranoid. Wyrm responded to him, admitting such a tactic could be worrisome. Ostrich later voting again for Eol, without providing any other statement that “I still have my suspicions on him. I questioned him as to the nature of those suspicions, but he did not respond. In the midst of this, with about 23 hours left in the cycle, Kas asked us not to focus so much on Eol, since we still need more open discussion. For the most part, most of us who were active ended up agreeing with Eol. The biggest outlier is Ostrich. But that’s not surprising, since he initiated a PM, keeping relevant discussion out of the thread, and when he noticed that the other two people in the PM with him were suspicious of Eol and therefore easy to sway more, he pushed hard on a lynching, despite all his claims in the thread about wanting to wait for an explanation. He has also never provided more details as to his suspicions outside of reminding us, almost like a broken record, that he’s a new player. Besides Ostrich, notes should be taken of Renegade, Wyrm, and myself. Renegade for being the first to mention the Spiked Tineye idea. Wyrm for circumstantial evidence which ties him to Ostrich (mostly in the form of his first post setting up Ostrich’s call for PMs and also the vote on Ostrich and near-immediate removal), and my usage of Ren’s Spiked Tineye Theory to persuade others to Eol’s guilt before giving him time to post. ----------- I’m seriously running out of time. It is now 10:25, and the rollover is at 11. I’m going to post this all right now, and start on The Lynch on Satrams to post tomorrow. I’m sorry this isn’t all of it. I’m trying to do as thorough of a job as I can. And I know there’s not much actual analysis in this section. My plan is to do full analysis on both parts, connecting them together and all of that, after the Lynch on Satrams section. Again, I’m sorry this isn’t everything I said it would be. I wasn’t able to start until I got off work, which wasn’t until 5, so I started at about 5:30 or so. Basically, I’ve been working on this for 5 straight hours. No joke. My neck hurts, my back hurts, my eyes are starting to hurt, my brain sort of hurts, and I’m very tired. You’ll get the rest after I get some sleep. (And, technically, work again. >> ) Edited January 9, 2015 by little wilson BBCode errors 8
Metacognition he/him Posted January 9, 2015 Author Posted January 9, 2015 (edited) Day 3: A Disbelief in Taxes Aralis sat on his front porch in his favorite chair as the remnant rays of light from the sun slowly gave way to the coming night. He didn’t fear the mists anymore. When you lived as long as he had, they were more like a constant companion than a force to be afraid of. Besides, he had never believe in those fanciful stories people told about Mistwraiths. Just a lot of mumbo jumbo if you asked him and so he liked to sit out here on his porch and greet the mists as they seemed to pour out of the ground. He sat there rocking in silent contentment for awhile, just feeling the cool caress of the mists after the heat of the day. Those youngins might fret about riches or relationships, but Aralis knew that it was the simple things in life that really mattered. He didn’t hear the figure approach from behind him, but he felt him. “The Koloss are coming,” said the voice. Aralis grunted. “You kids and your stories. There’s no such thing as Koloss. Never was, never will be. Go back to bed and let an old man rest in peace.” There was a pause, as if the person behind him didn’t know what to say or think. Eventually, a reply came. “There are too such a thing as Koloss.” “Nope.” “Yeah-huh, and they really are marching on your little town!” Aralis snorted. “And next you’re going to tell me that you’re one of those Spiked people that everyone has been going on about and that you’re here to ‘kill’ me, right?” Another pause. “...yes?” “Bah, I don’t have time for your childish games. Go try to fool someone else and leave me be.” “But, but I really am! And we really are! Who do you think burned down the barracks?” “Cooking fire accident.” “.....And the death of the Alchemist?” “Mistakes happen when working with volatile ingredients.” “With an axe in his head?!?” “Very volatile ingredients.” “Okay then, what about Karnad, huh? We pushed him off the wall!” “Slipped when he was trying to escape this town because he foolishly believed in fairytales.” An exasperated sigh came from behind Aralis and then a sword appeared through his chest. It was dripping blood, but Aralis felt no pain. “Oh, yes, very lifelike,” Aralis said. “What magician’s shop did you pick up this little trick?” The figure behind him cried out in anger and disbelief and the sword disappeared. Aralis didn’t see it again, as it chopped off his head this time…. ______________________________________________________________________ Rent surveyed the town square, admiring his handiwork. He thought he’d even outsmarted himself this time! The ladder had been pulled up out of the pit and there was a sign that hung from it that said, “15 boxings tu use.” He had evenly distributed a fine layering of ash to the entire square to hide his trap and it had only taken him most of the night! By morning, he’d be ready to start really collecting taxes on those that passed through his territory! He felt pretty proud of himself and was about to go spend some of the taxes he’d collected off of that Herwynbe fellow (at least one person in this town recognized his authority!) when he noticed something amiss. There was a small, shiny object halfway across the square. Lord Rulah! He thought. Can’t have anything outta place! Might tip someone off. As he approached the object, he figured out what it was and couldn’t believe his good luck. Free Taxes! He thought with a grin and there was a spring in his step as he neared the dropped coin. As he reached down to pick it up, the coin slid a few meters to the left. Rent jumped as if he’d been goosed, but continued to stare at the coin. Coins weren’t supposed to move like that, were they? He tried again and again, the coin slid along the same path. Ain’t no way some rusting coin is gettin the better of me! He leaped at the coin, but again, it just drifted further from him. As he brushed himself off, he tried to psych the coin out by going around it and approaching it from the other direction. It shot off between his legs. “Blasted coin! Come ere already!” He yelled as he started to chase the coin down. He was so focused on the coin, that he didn’t realize where he had stepped until he heard creaking of lightweight timber and felt the ground start to give away from him. He didn’t even have time to shout before he was plunged into darkness. He rubbed his head from where he had knocked it in the fall into his own trap. He stood and turned full circle, looking for a way out of the hole, but he didn’t find one. He grinned. Yep, this will do nicely once I get out of here! You’ve done it this time, Rent! Soon everyone will be paying you what yer rightfully due! It seemed that someone couldn’t wait though. A shower of coins sped through the night and into Rent’s trap with a little/lot more force than Rent would’ve liked since they pierced right through him. ______________________________________________________________________ With Reeco too exhausted to clean up the writings left by the errant artists, they went looking for a new location. They found one. Baron Von Piffertiff liked having banners on the front of his mansion that had his family’s seal on them, one hanging on each side of the entrance. When the villagers woke up, they found them both covered in writing instead. The one on the right read: Findthetruths findtheblood findthefire findthewood findthewater findtheair findthestone findthedeath findthesecretbut thereisneveranothersecretnevereverever. And the one on the left read: Citizens of Tyrian Falls: Don't forget to play fair with these messages first. Remember that your loyalty is to the town. Don't give up!SaoKiiDaaTeoAonShaoTiaAhaDeoEonDaoDeoTeoKaiKaiKiiDeoIdoAhaYLoveXAonShaoNaeRao2OmiMaiSaoAreTeoKai SaoYDaaAhaNaeAreNaeKiiDeoEonDaoRao2TeoKaiKaiKiiMaiTeoYTiaDaoEonDaoEonTeoDaaAonTiaIdoMaiDaaKiiNaeGoldShaoKaiNaeEnaSaoYTiaKaiShaoYIdoRao2TeoTiaDeoTeoDeoYKiiSaoDeoSaoZTeoRao2NaeDaoKaiAhaMaiKiiXSaoAreRii2KaiKaiOmiKiiSaoOmiDeoDeoTeoDaoKaiRii2DeoYZTeoKaiXLoveDaaKiiOmiIdoZAhaOmiIdoEnaTeoNaeDaaSaoAonSaoKiiDeoYDeoEonZRao2TiaYShaoNaeRii2KaiKaiOmiTeoDaaDeoIdoOmiSightEonShaoNaeShaoDaoKaiDeoEnaLoveTeoTiaSaoGoldTeo KiiXDeoEnaTiaDaoEnaTeoDeoKiiEonTiaSaoKaiRii2SaoNaeEoDaoKiiSightYTiaSaoIdoGoldKiiYNaeYDaaTiaNaeLoveNaeDeoSaoOmiDeoKaiOmiSaoKiiSaoAhaSightXEonIdoRii2KaiMaiOmiEonTiaRao2DeoNaeKii SightYKaiDeoKiiDaaIdoSaoDeoOmiSaoKiiOmiEnaKaiOmiIdoMaiRii2Rao2AhaZSightSaoKaiDeoOmiIdoXTeoDaoEon DaoSightKaiTeoDeoDaaOmiDeoZRao2IdoXTeoDaoMaiRao2IdoRao2ZDaaTeoLoveXTeoRii2KaiDeoRii2DeoXAreOmi NaeIdoYMaiRii2KaiNaeDeoXIdoOmiRao2DeoYYRii2AhaSaoTeoKaiLoveKiiDeoOmiSaoSightDaaLovrKaiTeoTeoLoveDeoOmi SightZYSaoIdoEonIdoEonOmiMaiSaoYKaiDeoSightXAhaTiaRao2TeoShaoTeoOmiSaoDaoDeoDeoOmiSaoMaiTia Rii2NaeAreYNaeRii2KaiTeoMaiOmiEonTeoVIdoEonYMaiKiiDaaNaeEnaOmiKaiRao2IdoLoveSaoMaiDeoRao2EnaTiaSightDeoOmi KaiDeoXIdoEonSightMaiEnaSaoTiaNaeDeoKaiTeoKaiDeoRii2SaoMaiAhaAhaTeoKaiKiiMaiTeoAonKaiRii2KaiDeoTeo OmiNaeRao2TeoKaiDaoShaoNaeKaiAonLoveTeoNaeNaeAhaNaeKiiRii2KaiTiaNaeRao2SaoYDeoTiaDeoEonSightKiiXDeoSaoSaoEnaXSightDeoDaaEonSightRao2VSaoRii2TeoKaiZKiiRii2KaiIdoOmiKaiTeoDaaAhaTeoAreIdoOmiMaiTeoNaeEon DaoSightNaeIdoEnaDeoTeoRii2AonAhaTiaAhaDeoEonKiiNaeIdoEonTeoNaeDaoTeoKiiNaeRii2KaiOmiIdoDeoKaiTiaKaiRao2YDeoRao2TeoAreKaiOmiYTeoOmiDeoEonGold KaiSightDeoDaaXSightShaoAhaEnaGoldIdoSaoYTeoTeoAreXSaoSaoEnaZTiaAonKaiDaoLoveDaaSaoZTeoSaoVOmiMaiNaeTeoGoldOmiNaeDeoKaiNaeDeoDaoLoveKiiAonTeoTiaYDeoRii2NaeKaiNaeEnaYOmiShaoRii2SaoYTeo LoveDeoOmiTiaAhaMaiAonSaoRii2MaiKaiYKaiTiaTeoDeoSaoSaoEnaEonKiiXSightYSightShaoDaoKaiYKaiDeoLoveDaaSightTeoTeoLoveKiiDaaSaoYTiaAhaTeoAreSaoIdoDeoEon TeoDaaTiaAhaMaiShaoAonAhaTiaTeoTeoAhaNaeKaiZTiaMaiDeo!-Endurance without an N _____________________________________________________________________ Day 3 Begins! There are 48 hours left in the day! Good Luck! Rent was a Village Tineye! Aralis was a Village Seeker! Updated Player List Edited January 9, 2015 by Metacognition 12
Wyrmhero he/him Posted January 9, 2015 Posted January 9, 2015 (edited) Looking at who died, I would guess that either Rent told someone what his Role was, or that the Spiked managed to Seek him with a Seeker or a Mistborn. Probably the latter, since we're being careful with our Roles this game (or at least, as far as I know we are). I think that they must have a Mistborn (as well as or instead of a Seeker), since I would be very doubtful that one of us would take out Rent otherwise. I'm not considering that they have a Coinshot, since there'd be no reason for them not to use it every Night if they did indeed have one. Araris' death though... I'd doubt he'd tell his Role to someone he hadn't checked before. As such, I think the only place it can come from is because he admitted that he was in contact with a Soother. The Spiked probably took a gamble (as much as it was one) that he only knew someone else's Role because he was a Seeker. Unfortunately for us, it paid off for them rather well. Hopefully Araris wasn't our only Seeker, but for now we should assume that he was. Hopefully there are at least two of us who are in contact who trust each other from the Night 0 and Night 1 Seeking. Vote-wise though... I'm not sure who to look at at the moment, to be perfectly honest. I'm still looking closely at the people who voted for me, and at Eol (since a vote for him was Soothed away), and so while Wilson explained Mailliw's reasoning for voting for me, I'd quite like to hear it from him as well. Edited January 9, 2015 by Wyrmhero
Newan he/him Posted January 9, 2015 Posted January 9, 2015 My job search is still in progress, so I'm still not able to fully commit to this game. I'm really sorry about that. Hopefully that will change within the next few days!
Seonid he/him Posted January 9, 2015 Posted January 9, 2015 Ok, I now finally have time to post a longer analysis. On the other hand, an awful lot more has happened since I last posted. Pretty much none of it has been good for us (except for Wilson giving long summary posts. Having the information organized like that is quite helpful). Losing Araris and Ren both is a blow, both in terms of experience and in terms of roles. This double kill indicates one of two things. Either the Spiked have a Mistborn/Coinshot (but, like Wyrm, I find the idea that they would have the Coinshot refrain from killing to be ludicrous - therefore, I think that the Mistborn idea is most likely), or one of the Villagers targeted Ren. I don't know why they would have done that...as in I can honestly not think of a single reason for a non-Spiked Mistborn or Coinshot to target Ren. Not at all. So the Spiked Mistborn may well be a thing. (If you are a Villager, and you did target Ren for reasons that none of us can fathom, please let somebody you trust know. Don't post it in the thread - but do let somebody you are sure of know. They can give us the information while concealing your name and role. I guess this comes down to - don't endanger yourself, but the Village needs this information.) After looking at Wilson's excellent initial analysis of Day 1 stuff, I'd also like to take a look at the close of Day 2. I do not mean this to distract from Wilson's excellent analysis; hopefully it will complement it. So far, the two most disturbing incidents we have had have been the whole tangled mess with Eol, culminating in the lynch on Satrams, and the vote manipulation that moved the lynch from Eol to Wyrm. Since Wilson is taking the first, I'll examine the second. So, known information is that Araris' vote went from Eol to nothing. Since he was not a Rioter, this indicates that he must have been Soothed. (Before his death, however, which revealed his role, I noticed several people saying he couldn't have been a Rioter because nobody else's vote moved. This is not the case, however. What we saw would also have been fully consistent with a Rioter who targeted somebody who was Smoked. Again, his death and the role reveal negate that possibility, but we must keep it in mind for future voting analyses.) Instead of lynching Eol, that vote Soothed turned the lynch to Wyrm instead. This leaves us the all-important question "Why?" I can see several possible situations. 1 - Eol is a Spiked, and this was a last, desperate ploy to save him. This doesn't seem likely, as that would be a dead giveaway. Then again, suspicion seems to have moved off of Eol anyways, so a ploy like this might have worked. I still think it to be the least likely of options. 1a - A variation on this is that Eol is a Spiked, but that this wasn't about saving him, but was about making us waste our time trying to lynch him again this current day cycle. In this case, he probably would have been Lurched last night to help protect against Coinshots. Us not suspecting him as much anymore is, under this situation, gravy on the top for the Eliminators. This is a more likely scenario than 1, but I still think that this isn't a likely one. The Eol situation reeks of misdirection to me. I suspect one of the following 2 scenarios. 2 - Neither Eol or Wyrm is Spiked, but the Spiked are playing this to keep our suspicions on Eol and away from others. They saved him to try to waste our time lynching him again, giving them critical time to hit our most important players, and moved the vote to Wyrm to try to eliminate him without implicating themselves. With all of the suspicion going on between Wyrm and Wilson, if Wyrm had died and been shown innocent, suspicion might have fallen on Wilson (who I am pretty sure is good), thus turning the Village against an important asset. I think that this is the most likely scenario. 3 - Eol isn't Spiked, but Wyrm is. This whole scenario was manipulated by the Spiked as a ploy to get us to trust Wyrm, as the target of the manipulated lynch. Since he is a Thug, the Spiked would know his role and that the Lynch wouldn't kill him. (This could also be combined with the whole Eol as a way to waste our time trying to lynch him.) Another slight variant on this scenario would be if Wyrm was the Spiked Mistborn, thus meaning that the Pewter was effective only for that night. In this variant, we would now think we knew both Wyrm's role and alignment, but be mistaken about both. As I said, I think that scenario 2 is the most likely, but we can't afford to discount 1 or 3. I think that we need more discussion in order to decide between them. Also, if anyone sees a possible way to reconcile the information that I haven't covered, let me know. If I didn't get all of the scenarios, we need to put any I missed out there too. 6
Metacognition he/him Posted January 10, 2015 Author Posted January 10, 2015 Figured I'd do an updated vote list for you guys, since the day is halfway done already. (1) Maill- Wyra .....Huh, well that was easy! 2
Araris Valerian he/him Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 (edited) Disembodied Voice: I'm not a ghost. I'm still a seeker, and there are no Koloss coming. That sword didn't even cut me... there's no way I can be dead. I'm glad everyone has given up on this nonsense about an invading army, so there will be no more senseless deaths in our town. I bet all of those people that I seeked found some way to kick me out of my body so that I couldn't berate them for not participating enough. Well townsfolk, it didn't work. Aralis the Cognitive Shadow will haunt you until this town has been cleansed of pizza and foolishness. At least that Rent fellow had the decency to leave us alone. *extended period of silence* "You would think that if a guy has the decency to stick around after being ruthlessly kicked out of his body then at least someone would be so kind as to give a scream, or at least faint..." Edited January 10, 2015 by Araris Valerian 6
Peng the Just he/him Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 Going to cast my vote in the direction of clancy for now. Starting lots of little PM groups seems like a good way for a spiked to try to get information.
Kasimir he/him Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 (edited) By the Lord Ruler's toenails, we're all more lively than you living people! What's wrong with all of you? Spiked got your tongue? Oh wait. I think they got mine. I think it's missing at the moment. Did someone check my grave? Maybe a cat ate it. I hate cats. They're nasty creatures. I hate this town. I wish I'd never stopped here. Now I'm stopping here forever. Did you hear that? It's cold. I hate the rain. I hate the way the wind doesn't stop. I hate it hate it hate it hate it. The dead speak but the living remain silent as the grave. When will it stop? Dead men tell no tales. Alas, if I've had any secrets, they're buried with me but there are more secrets in this infernal town--wheels within wheels, and a keen tongue and a clever eye may yet ferret it out. But not like this. I was a villager, just an ordinary man, no metals, no powers. I was alive. I had a voice. I spoke, until I was silenced. How long until it is your turn? Will you speak then with the dead? Keep the fires burning, blacksmith. Burn the dead, burn them, flesh and bone to ash and dust until there is nothing left. I am rotting in the ground but my message lives on and must be passed to the hands of another. Listen, then. I will tell you my secret. The Spiked are you. The Spiked are all of you. A man who falls silent in the face of a murder is as guilty as the hands that wielded the sword, that wash themselves in blood. Et tu, Brute? It is over, now. Silence has fallen, and the question will go unanswered. Listen. Ruin is a madness; a madness that only needs a little push. The truth is written in blood. Edited January 10, 2015 by Kasimir 6
Herowannabe he/him Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 (edited) This double kill indicates one of two things. Either the Spiked have a Mistborn/Coinshot (but, like Wyrm, I find the idea that they would have the Coinshot refrain from killing to be ludicrous - therefore, I think that the Mistborn idea is most likely), or one of the Villagers targeted Ren. I don't know why they would have done that...as in I can honestly not think of a single reason for a non-Spiked Mistborn or Coinshot to target Ren. Not at all. So the Spiked Mistborn may well be a thing. I agree, a spiked Mistborn makes the most sense, especially with the extra Tineye message from the first night. I always thought that extra message had a bit of a menacing, spiked feel to it. I doubt that they knew who both of their targets were though, and probably just got really lucky with one or both of them. Also, if anyone sees a possible way to reconcile the information that I haven't covered, let me know. If I didn't get all of the scenarios, we need to put any I missed out there too. I can think of one scenario- and its the one that I think happened. It could be true irregardless of whether or not Eol and/or Wyrm are spiked. Wilson's plea on Eol's was very persuasive. There were only a handful of people voting for Eol, and the rest of us couldn't do anything to change the vote. Unless we were a rioter or soother. I think that Wilson persuaded a soother to try to save Eol, and that's why Aralis's vote was soothed. It's possible that one of the people who voted for Wyrm was the soother, but not necessarily. EDIT: Go away dead people, leave us alone. We have new Brandon novels to read! Edited January 10, 2015 by Herowannabe 1
little wilson she/her Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 I can think of one scenario- and its the one that I think happened. It could be true irregardless of whether or not Eol and/or Wyrm are spiked. Wilson's plea on Eol's was very persuasive. There were only a handful of people voting for Eol, and the rest of us couldn't do anything to change the vote. Unless we were a rioter or soother. I think that Wilson persuaded a soother to try to save Eol, and that's why Aralis's vote was soothed. It's possible that one of the people who voted for Wyrm was the soother, but not necessarily. This is possible; however, if it happened, it's not because I'm in contact with one and asked them. The only people I asked to help were Claincy and Maill, and Claincy didn't get online in time to. And we know what Maill did. To my knowledge, I'm not in contact with any vote manipulators....
Herowannabe he/him Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 also, I'm voting for Ostrich for the same undisclosed reasons as before.
little wilson she/her Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 (edited) Please read Part 1: Eol’s Social Experiment, if you missed it, as I will be referencing it in Part 3: Full Analysis. Part 2: The Lynch on Satrams The first vote on Satrams was placed by Wyrm on Sunday, at 11:04 am MST: I am removing my vote from Karand for now, I have been convinced enough of innocence there for me to do so. Instead, I am going to comment on two things: Firstly, we have a high number of inactives. Secondly, we have a high number of no-votes. In the interest of changing at least one of these, I'm going to vote for Satrams. He's posted once so far during the previous Turn, but he hasn't said anything so far this turn after a day and a half to do so. What are your thoughts here, Satrams, and why haven't you said anything yet? Barely an hour later, Satrams responded. Sorry I haven't posted yet. I've been busy in real life. Anyways, on to discussion. I'm going to move straight to voting for Kassad. He's been very active in the thread lately, but he hasn't been active in voting for anyone. Furthermore, he's voted for himself, which makes me very suspicious of why he's trying to buy trust. It's mostly a gut feeling, but I don't think I can really trust him this game. As I pointed out later, Wyrm never removed his vote. In a PM between he, Kas, Ren, and I, he said that his vote was a poke vote to see if Satrams would respond quickly. After Satrams responded, Wyrm said that his logic seemed faulty, like he’d rushed to get a reply in quick. He then suggested that Satrams could be trying to save Hero, if both Hero and Satrams are bad guys and Kas is a good guy. I placed the next vote, at 6:11 pm. First, I responded to Satrams post with this: Kas was the first vote of this day...He voted even before Hero said that he wasn't voting for anyone, so...that logic doesn't hold up under scrutiny. At all. Why are you really voting for Kas? To save Hero? Is he your evil teammate? I said a lot more, mentioning my suspicions and then wondering who I was going to vote for: As for my vote. I've withheld it this entire cycle, going back and forth on multiple people, and not wanting to participate in any bandwagon. I thought Eol was evil. Now I don't think he is. I thought Hero was evil. I still think he might be. I'm also suspicious of Sart. And Ostrich. And Winter. And Ash, a bit. But who to vote for? I think I'll go with the person whose reasoning has been the most faulty. Satrams. Eol placed the final vote on Satrams 3 hours after I did, at 9:15, so just shy of two hours before the end of the cycle: As it stands then, we have 4 people each on 2 votes. Ash, Hero, Kas and Sart. Of those I find Sart to be the most suspicious. Saying that Kas had been active in the thread but inactive in the voting is simply wrong. He opened with a vote on Hero, and then followed it up with him about his suspicion in various posts. His activity then, is an extension on his voting early in the cycle. You also talk about him voting for himself as a method for gaining trust amongst the village, when other players have been doing exactly the same thing. Hero saying he is definitely a villager, Wilson giving reasons to trust herself and Claincey in certain PM’s. Myself with an open explanation of my actions. I could go on and on, but my point is, this game is an exercise in buying trust. The fact that you find that an appropriate reason to “move straight to voting for kassad”, I find suspicious. I agree that we need a lynch to gain information and move forward in this game, so because of that and my suspicions of Sart, I will be placing my vote there. Before Eol placed this vote, he and I discussed in a PM. He’d seen my previous mention of Kas in reference to the Social Experiment, even though I didn’t mention Kas by name. He asked my opinion on the vote, since he didn’t want Kas lynched and I didn’t either. At that point (just after I placed my vote), the lynch targets were Kas, Dom, Ash, and Satrams, all with two votes on them. However, I didn’t realize Ash had two votes, since I didn’t noticed Ament had changed his vote to red (he’d originally posted it in green). So I only gave my opinions on Ash and Satrams. Ultimately, Eol chose Satrams. I could say a lot about these three votes, but everything that could be said about them has been said about them, and the fact that all three are laid out like this, back-to-back-to-back should help you decide. As we know, the cycle ended and Satrams died. However, this data section is not going to end quite yet, because the real information is in the discussion after the lynch happened. First, we have Kas questioning 5 people, including a question for me about why I found Sart’s logic faulty. This was posted at 3:42am, and before I woke up to respond to it, Wyrm posted twice. His first post mourned that Satrams didn’t get back online and defend himself, and then he bolded Eol’s name, asking why Eol chose to go for Satrams rather than Hero, Ash, and Kas. His second post was a question to me about why I used his statement in our PM about Satrams possibly trying to save Hero, but didn’t discuss it in said PM. Both of these happened in the 5 o’clock hour. I responded to both Kas and Wyrm at 8:45, explaining exactly why I found Satrams’ logic faulty: I found it faulty because it was incorrect. You had voted for someone. Plus, he's suspicious of you for trying to buy trust? Hero was doing the exact same thing by insisting, numerous times, that he wasn't spiked. So why does that peg you as being the highly suspicious one? Because it was coupled with the fact you hadn't voted for anyone?.....except that you had. So....both points make no sense. Faulty logic. In response to Wyrm, I realized that I hadn’t responded, but thought I had and figured I must’ve seen that PM as I was getting ready for church. After contemplation throughout the day, when I finally was able to sit down to write the post, I used it as a possibility, but it wasn’t the reason I was voting for him. I also mentioned after that that I would’ve retracted the vote had he responded--and that he was online, checking the thread, before the rollover, so he could’ve responded. Seonid and Winter voiced surprise at the lynch on Satrams. Seonid seconded Wyrm’s call for Eol to explain himself. Hero comes next, with his post based off of a faulty thread reading, where he first accused me heavily only to realize, hours later, that I was not the last person to vote, and changed it over to Eol. In the post, he talked about how close the vote was, making it a “prime opportunity” for the Spiked to control the lynch. He lists two possibilities. 1) the Spiked wanted Satrams gone the most and made it happen, in which case one of the three of us is spiked. 2) The Spiked didn’t participate in the lynch at all, which seems odd, since the vote changed enough that the Spiked had plenty of time to sway things one way or the other. He thinks the Spiked were probably paying attention near the end to make sure the lynch didn’t go poorly for them. It occurs to me that Hero has a good point here. However, that involves an examination of all three on the lynchblock: Hero, Ash, Satrams, and Kas, two of which we know are not Spiked. Because of this, I’ll exam it more in Part 3, where it belongs. While Hero’s post is directed toward me, a number of responses come through. First, there is Winter coming to me defense, saying that the other 2 shouldn’t be discounted, and really, anyone is a possibility. Ash agrees with Hero that my late vote was strange, and seems very eliminatory; however, it’s strange that I would do this. He says that I was explaining to him early on about how Eol could be a Spiked Tineye in a private PM, and that I could’ve been trying to pit Ash against him, to get him to kill an innocent. Winter worries that a bandwagon is going to form and lynching me wouldn’t be wise. Hero says that I’m more responsible for Satrams’ death than anyone else, and that if I’m guilty, Winter is the highest on his suspect list. He later retracted this post. Winter acknowledges the suspicion she’ll accrue should I be guilty. She looks back on the vote and sees that Eol was the last to vote, mentioning that correction. She posts this at 5:05pm. Hero, who was apparently at the Firefight signing at Jordan Landing that night which started at 6, didn’t post again until 9:27, apologizing for his mistake. In the intermediary four hours, many people spoke. Mek says that I’ve been active in getting everyone together in PMs and talking, which doesn’t seem like an eliminator tactic. Winter agrees, reminding everyone that Eol was the last to vote, not me. Weiry is also hesitant about lynching me, saying that while the late vote could be construed as suspicious, I’ve “suitably explained” that it was due to “outside circumstances.” He’s unsure about Eol. I defend myself, correcting Hero about the timeline, telling him to verify his facts, and saying that Eol and I had discussed the lynch before he voted. I stated again that Sart had been online and could’ve defended himself but didn’t. Kas asks Ash to explain his post about the PM conversation he had with me “early on.” Ash realized he made a mistake and that PM conversation was not, in fact, with me. He apologizes to me. Ostrich says he’s cautious about me because of how many people I’m willing to blame (for future reference, Ostrich, I am a female ), but he is more suspicious of the players who voted for Satrams. I bolded “but” because that’s a separating conjunction, indicating that the first clause is dissimilar to the second clause. However, I am one of the people who voted for Satrams. Considering what the conversation is about and has been about, this seems like a rather blatant error. Continuing on, Ostrich says those who finished Satrams off didn’t provide reasoning and he’d like to know that. Claincy says he doesn’t think I’m spiked because he doesn’t think a Spiked would set up PMs and be encouraging discussion as much as I have been. He goes on to say: (Trying to build a smaller group of "trusted" players is a normal thing for spiked, trying to get everyone communicating like this is not.) Beyond that she has been very actively investigating potential spiked and trying to confirm their innocence or guilt and her reasoning for votes and suspicions has been solid. It is possible that she is spiked but I doubt it, hopefully a seeker will be able to confirm her allignment soon. After that is Hero’s apology. Eol posted next at 9:37 pm, explaining why he voted for Satrams, saying that he didn’t want Kas to go, and he had tentative links to Ash that he wanted to “see play out,” which left Hero and Satrams. He found Satrams more suspicious because of the reasons already stated. In this post, he also listed the number of people advocating a lynch, the number who seemed indifferent, and the number against a lynch. Because the number advocating was so much higher than the number against (over half for and one against), he mentions that all those people said a lynch was necessary, but nobody wanted to be the one to make the call. He called out Ash for saying that he “didn’t want to pull the trigger” even though he agreed on a lynch, and then immediately condemned the person who made the call, saying it was an eliminator strategy. He also said that if this situation had occurred at the beginning of the cycle, he would’ve voted for Ostrich, since Ostrich never elaborated on his suspicions. Hero responded to me, saying that he missed Eol’s vote and made an incorrect assumption. Eol is now at the top of his suspect list, followed by me and Wyrm. He hopes the Seekers seek the three of us that night. The night ends about an hour after Hero’s post. Kas dies. Wyrm posts about 5 hours later, at 4:01am, wondering why Kas died. He then says that he he’s suspicious of those who are suspicious of Eol. He understands why Eol and I would be suspicious, but he doesn’t understand why Hero is suspicious of him. He votes for Hero because Hero didn’t want to vote during day 1 but is now taking advantage of others who did vote. Ostrich echoes his post during the night, saying that those who voted for Satrams are suspicious because Satrams wasn’t discussed and no one provided a good reason for why they voted for him. Eol responds with a vote on Ostrich, asking who Ostrich would’ve preferred, and reminding Ostrich that since he’s looking for good reasons, Ostrich himself still hasn’t provided any for voting for Eol. I responded next, saying that I did provide good reasons--his logic was faulty and I backed that up. I mention that there are players in the past who have voted and lynched other players solely because of their gut. Those aren’t good reasoning. While faulty logic isn’t great, it’s something, and the first lynches are typically not based off solid reasoning. Hero answered Wyrm, saying that he suspects everybody; he just suspects Wyrm, Eol, and me a little more. Seonid says s/he is suspicious of Eoladdin because he voted late and determined the lynch, with weak reasoning--also saying that mine was just as weak, but that my later defense was a little more firm even though s/he disagrees with my reasoning. No vote is placed as there is already a vote there. My post analyzing Wyrm’s last post is next the next one relevant to this situation. While I spend most of it picking apart Wyrm’s post, I noted that I think the people who are suspicious of those who voted for Satrams are also suspicious because I think they’re trying to use misdirection, focusing the discussion and attention in the wrong place. One of the biggest players to blame in the lynch is Satrams himself. I repeated again that Satrams was online and could’ve defended himself--and defending yourself is a very big aspect of this game. dowanx called me out, worried that people weren’t discussing the fact that Claincy or I weren’t attacked the night before. He’s also worried that despite the amount of suspicion around me that was expressed, no ones has said anything. He explains his thoughts on the lynch. He thinks the Spiked wanted a large split could so they could control things better. I placed my vote on Satrams, hoping that someone non-Spiked would vote after and kill him. We realize that’s not going to happen, and ask Eol to place the final vote because he’s already garnered suspicion so why not use him to the last drop? Cycle ends and Satrams is dead. While he thought that Eol wasn’t spiked, he now thinks he is and that the Social Experiment wasn’t condoned. He thinks that I’m the bigger problem, so I should be lynched first. He casts a vote on me. Weiry votes for Eol, because his Social Experiment explanation “seems” reasonable, but his gut won’t let it go. Ostrich says he’s suspicious of Eol because of the Social Experiment and he’s a paranoid new player. Araris votes for Sarc because Sarc defended Hero, one of Araris’ top suspects, supporting it with only Hero’s public claims of “(supposed) innocence.” He adds on that the only person who Sarc has voted for is Ostrich, a player who was trying to piece together what Eol had done. Araris says that the idea for backstage PM-discussion was a good idea and made sense. Ostrich, at 7:08 pm says that he didn’t tell Winter or Maill which role he was accused of being until he knew what they were accused of being. He says he’s not mostly lost his suspicions on Eol since he’s shown a lot of reasoning for being a villager. One thing here: Eol hadn’t posted since the last time Ostrich posted. In fact, Eol had only posted once since the cycle began and it was only a post questioning why Ostrich was so gung-ho towards Eol. The last time Eol actually defended himself was during the night cycle, almost 22 hours prior to Ostrich’s post here. I’m positive Ostrich read through the night cycle, since he reiterated his post during the night, wanting “good reasoning” from the people who’d voted for Satrams. And now, suddenly, his views on Eol are different, even though Eol hasn’t posted anything to have prompted that change of opinion. Moving on, at 7:34 pm Claincy said that he’s uncertain about Eol, and even though Eol’s not the most suspicious player in the game, he’s tempted to vote for him anyway, just because of the information gain that will happen if we lynch him, regardless of alignment. And that’s the last post I collected, mostly because I could continue putting quotes down extending through to today, because we’re still talking about this issue, at least in part, but ultimately, there’s not much reason in going further past this post, because most of points of discussion have been talked about by this now (as in this post by Claincy), and everyone who participated in it has talked, and their stances are fairly well-known (especially seeing it all back-to-back like this). Part 3: Full Analysis And now for the hardest part. I said we wanted to take special note of Ostrich, Wyrm, Ren, and me after the first part. Obviously, we no longer have to worry about Ren, so I’m going to drop him, but add on one player to replace him, due to things in Part 1. Ash. The reason on here is his flip-flopping response to Eol’s experiment. I’m not too particularly worried about it, since it makes sense, and that’s why I didn’t make note of him initially. But with Ren gone, I want to keep the options open. I’ve already discussed Ostrich’s PMs and the manipulation I’m certain went on there, particularly in the PM between Ostrich, Winter, and Maill. I can’t really say more about that specifically in this context, although in light of Araris’ post in which he defended Ostrich’s suggestion, there’s more. Quite frankly, I couldn’t disagree with Araris more. The backstage PM-discussion was a terrible idea, as it led to manipulation and more. PMs should never be used as a replacement for the thread when it comes to the frontstage players of such a game-relevant issue like this was. To be completely honest, the fact that Araris defended Ostrich made me slightly suspicious of him for a time, but then I decided it was more probable that Araris was simply being manipulated. However, in light of Araris’ role, I’ve had to look a little closer. First of all, I want to point out that we have no idea (or at least I don’t) who Araris seeked. I’m betting, based on this post, he at least tried to Seek either Hero or Ostrich on Night 2. Most likely Hero, since, as Araris notes, Hero is his top suspect, and why wouldn’t Araris Seek his top suspect? However, I notice that he uses the phrase “supposed innocence” in that post, which indicates to me that he hadn’t Seeked Hero. He used a similar phrase to me in a PM. He was in contact with a “reported Soother,” which, now that I know he’s a Seeker, tells me he hadn’t Seeked that person. He was going off of what they said. What does this mean though? I don’t really know, to be honest. As I said, I would assume he Seeked Hero, but if he did, he must’ve gotten an inconclusive result, which can only mean that Hero was being Smoked. If this is the case, Hero is probably Spiked. The fact that Araris defended Ostrich also has me vaguely concerned, as I don’t think Araris would defend just anyone, particularly someone who had been as aggressively stubborn as Ostrich had been. Technically, it could be due to a Seeking. Or just a hunch that Ostrich was good. Or something else entirely. I’ve no idea. The point is that if he knew Ostrich was good…..well. That opens up an entirely different can of worms that leads to a Spiked Tineye, and I would really prefer not to think about that as it would mean that me and a number of other people will die. Not that I don’t expect to die eventually. I do. But….this would make it far sooner. Moving past that (and attempting to wipe it from my mind), the next thing I want to mention is Hero’s point about the Day 1 lynch with the Spiked. I mentioned earlier that I wanted to analyze it a little closer since I’d had a thought. He mentioned two scenarios. One in which the Spiked were involved in the lynch, and one which they weren’t. He thinks the first scenario is far more plausible, since it was spread out so much and they were probably keeping a sharp eye on the thread, to make sure it went their way. Now, in order for them to be concerned enough to get involved in the vote is if there was a chance for it to not go their way. Which would mean that at least one of their team (but likely only one) was on the chopping block. Well, there were only four with 2 or more votes on them: Satrams, Kas, Hero, and Ash. Satrams and Kas are confirmed innocents, so the Spiked were surely not interested in that, except as a direction to steer the vote, in case it didn’t go their way, if Hero is correct. I have strong reasoning to believe that Ash is not Spiked, thanks to some help from Ren given less than 6 hours before he died (which I will discuss in a bit). Which leaves…..Hero. It seems odd that Hero would mention something that could come back and incriminate him if someone followed the logic through, if he is in fact Spiked. But it’s not the strangest thing that’s happened in these games. Still, I’m not going to overanalyze that. I’m just pointing it out. Next up is what happened after Hero posted that post about the scenarios (which is the post where he misread the thread and accused me for being the last vote on Satrams). I find it very curious that both Ash and then Ostrich jumped on the chance to cast suspicion my way. Ostrich’s is more interesting than Ash’s, though, because by that point in time, Winter had mentioned multiple times that Eol was the last to vote, and Ash had just barely apologized to me for making a mistake about the PM conversation (which I’m assuming he had with Ren). Yet right after that, Ostrich says that I’m suspicious. His reasoning is even more curious since it’s based on how many people I’m willing to blame. This is interesting because by that point in time, to my knowledge, I’d only said that I was suspicious of Ostrich, Ash, and Winter (other than Satrams, who I voted for soon after I said that, and Eol, who I said I was no longer suspicious of). Considering that there are 5-6 Spiked, saying that I suspect 4 people isn’t that extreme. Especially since none of those suspicions at that point in time were very large. Side comment here: I have a feeling my brain is not in the right mindset to do a great analysis. There’s been a fair bit of information gained today and I think my brain is at *mindblown* level right now as it tries to work through everything, piecing it all together. With that in mind, I’m going to say that these things bear more thought: Thread Mis-Reading (by--at least--Ash, Ostrich, Hero, and Wyrm). Could be intentional, could be innocent. Dowanx’ argument about me and Eol in the possible Spiked situation is awfully similar to Hero’s breakdown of the scenarios. Not sure what to make of this. Could be Spiked collaborating in doc and feeding off other’s ideas--but that seems like an easy way for things to come back and bite you--or it could be someone using an idea they agree with from the thread (like my usage of Ren’s Spiked Tineye theory). Dowanx’ errors in his argument--namely that he says there’d been a lot of suspicion placed on me, when in fact two of the three that had expressed a large dose of suspicion toward me apologized for it because they realized they were incorrect, due to misreadings. Not sure how one could miss Hero’s struck-through paragraphs in which he condemned me. Ostrich’s stubborn attitude and sudden change of heart toward Eol And finally. I mentioned a bit ago that Ren gave me some help that helped me figure out about Ash. He wasn’t intentionally giving me the information. Let me explain the situation: Ren, Wyrm and I were in a PM (Kas was in this PM until he died). We’ve had this PM going since the first night cycle. A couple days ago, right at the start of the night, I accused Wyrm of being Spiked. He and I got into a lengthy discussion, during which I realized that I was severely overcompensating because of how desperately I don’t want to get stabbed in the back by him. I admitted this to him, and after that, things got better. While I still believed he was probably Spiked, I knew that a vast majority of that belief was based off of biased feelings, so I couldn’t trust them. We started talking about various suspicions, mostly Ash. Wyrm asked if he should contact Ash, and then mentioned it was weird that Ash hadn’t contacted him, since he usually does at the beginning of the games. I told him sure. He relayed to me what Ash was saying and everything was good. I was starting to trust him. I even started a one-on-one with him, because I was suddenly not sure about Ren, if Wyrm really was good. We continued using both PMs for a time. Sometime just after 6 pm MST yesterday (Thursday), Ren caught up on the massive length of replies we’d added to that PM. He questioned Wyrm about the lack of contact with Ash. Apparently, Ash contacted Wyrm night 1, asking Ren about his suspicions, and Ren said we should wait til the night is over. Ash said that he told Wyrm the same thing. While Ren wasn’t entirely sure what Ash meant by that, since he was going off-topic for bit, the fact is, he’d mentioned Wyrm implying that he was in contact with Wyrm as well as with Ren. Wyrm responded, after Ren was dead, that he had not had any previous contact with Ash before he contacted him from our conversation. Now, obviously, someone here is lying. Ren says Ash told him he was in contact with Wyrm cycle 1. Wyrm says Ash was not. Do I know the point to lying about this? Heavens no. But I do know that Ren has no reason to lie, and no villager has a reason to lie. I also know that Ren gave Wyrm the timeframe in which to be looking for this message, so it should be easy to find. Today, Maill and I contacted Ash. I’d thought that he was Araris’ Soother for various reasons. I was dead-wrong about that fact, but due to the nature of the contact, I can say that I’m nearly certain that he’s a Villager, basing it solely off his responses and the quickness with which he responded. However, to be sure, I asked him when his first contact with Wyrm was. Ash had no idea about any of this exchange, and I was very curious about his response. He said 27 hours ago (this conversation took place just after 5pm today, MST). I paraphrased Ren’s comment, giving him a timeframe just like Wyrm had had. He found the message in question. He’d missed it before because he was on mobile and the message didnt’ show up in the recent PMs, and he’d forgotten about the conversation because it died off almost instantly and he hadn’t sent a new one until after he’d been lynched. This told me that Wyrm was lying. You may think this is a trivial thing to find him suspicious over--lying about being in contact with someone at a given time. But lying is still lying, whether it’s about something trivial or something huge. I’d say the trivial lies are some of the biggest tells, too--since those are the ones that villagers really have nothing to gain from lying about them. But Spiked? Lie about enough here and there and you can manipulate someone into distrusting someone else. Into accusing them of being a Spiked Soother. Into saying that your Seeker contact Seeked them, when the Seeker didn’t, just to see what the accused says. Subtle manipulation can get a person to do a lot. And that’s exactly what just happened. Now, this makes me question some things. In Seonid’s analysis, Scenario 3 is the one where Eol is a Villager and Wyrm is Spiked. I think that’s the scenario we’re at. It makes the most sense, considering. However, it’s practically a guarantee that the Spiked have a Mistborn at this point. I also believe they have a Seeker and a Smoker, as well as a vote manipulator (probably a Soother, but it could also be a Rioter). I also believe that no matter how big of a troll Meta is, he’d make the balance between the powered v. unpowered equal for both teams. We know there are Regular Villagers. Kas is one. I know of two others. I’m inclined to believe that there is one Regular Spiked and only one. That’s 5 roles on Team Evil, and there could be a 6th. If there is, I’d be willing to bet it’s Lurcher, although I suppose it could be a Thug. I feel like having a Thug, Mistborn, Seeker, and Smoker, all on one team though is a little over balanced, although I guess it depends on who is on the team. Still. I don’t think there’s a Mistborn and a Thug. Which means Wyrm would be the Spiked Mistborn. This is all said, I’m not sure about lynching Wyrm willy-nilly, since I suppose he could’ve just been mistaken as to his contact with Ash. Maybe. Possibly. Or maybe he deleted the PM? I don’t know. And that’s why I’m bringing it up here. I’m also not voting yet, since I’m not sure if I should vote for Wyrm or Ostrich. Or maybe Hero. Or someone else entirely--heck, maybe the Tineye I’m now worried is Spiked. I’m hoping we can discuss all of this (with far more discussion than has gone on today) so we’ll know better what to do. We have less than 24 hours. Almost 21 now. One last piece of information: I’ve been contacted by a Coinshot. This Coinshot says they killed Ren because they thought he was Spiked. They saw Ren posted more before the game than during, and thought it meant he was discussing things in the spiked doc. Additionally, Ren’s posts weren’t particularly helpful (in the Coinshots opinion). Seemed they were trying to either confuse us or rile us up. The Coinshot apologizes for this mistake. Edited January 10, 2015 by little wilson BBCode errors 5
Wyrmhero he/him Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 I am disappointed with the lack of discussion going on. I don't have the time to check over Wilosn's megapost at the moment, but I will clear something up - Ashiok is actually right that I had contacted him. After you mentioned it here, I went back to my really old PMs, and it seems I contacted him briefly on the first night. The conversation died on the 2nd with nothing notable being said, and I then completely forgot about it - to the point where I even started a new PM when I asked if I should contact him. I apologise for the confusion there.
Claincy he/him Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 Going to cast my vote in the direction of clancy for now. Starting lots of little PM groups seems like a good way for a spiked to try to get information. This has been discussed quite a bit, I think I got all the posts where it was discussed: Wilson Rent Claincy dowanx Weiry Wilson dowanx Claincy Ash Wilson If you can think of any concerns that haven't already been talked about by all means, bring them up! But please at least elaborate a bit on your suspicions rather than just tossing out a vote based on a general statement about a well discussed topic. (And please let me know if I missed any of the discussion.) I'm going to be honest and say that I don't know who to vote for today. As every experienced player knows with a bit of thought you can make a decent alibi for most actions. But we need to vote, so I'm going to vote. I've been looking back through the thread, and read through Wilson's helpful megapost and the people I suspect most now are Wyrm and Ostrich. Sorry Ostrich, but I think overall your actions are the most suspicious with how quickly you have sometimes jumped on votes and sometimes minimal explanation for your votes. This could change before the end of the cycle if I'm convinced otherwise (I will be online) but for now, that's my vote.
Seonid he/him Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 Oh good, people are back and commenting. I thought for a while that my analysis had killed discussion rather than fostering it. I read through Wilson's mega-post, and that helped me crystallize suspicions a little. I think that I'm going to go out on a limb here and vote Wyrm. I base my reasoning on Wilson's analysis, especially the lie about the message times. If Wyrm can give an adequate response to that, I'll remove my vote (but not all of my suspicions).
Wyrmhero he/him Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 (edited) If Wyrm can give an adequate response to that, I'll remove my vote (but not all of my suspicions). As I said, it was a simple mistake (one of many i have made this game, sadly). I messaged Ashiok at the start of the game, on the first Night, and we had a brief chat about contacting people. The discussion then died when I went to bed.Then, when Renegade mentioned it, I denied being in contact with Ashiok. Wilson had already mentioned her suspicions of Ashiok to me at that time, and I was basically thinking 'I'd remember if I was talking to Ashiok'. Since it had dried up so early, and nothing notable was mentioned in it, it was completely out of my mind. In fact, when Wilson was talking about Ashiok, I decided to get in contact with him, creating a new PM as well. When Wilson mentioned it again today, I started to doubt my memory, and discovered the old conversation in my list, buried under loads of discussions from games and not from games. Doesn't help that I named it the same as I did Kas' conversation, so it didn't stand out at a glance. So... Twelve hours left in the Cycle. Where is everyone? And, Hreo, what reasons do you have that you don't want to share? Withholding such reasoning just makes me suspicious of it. Edit: That's a point - Ashiok, why didn't you point out that we already had a PM when I started the new one with you? Edited January 10, 2015 by Wyrmhero
Seonid he/him Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 Well, I said I'd take it off, so I will. Wyrm. I'm still not sure about you, but that's a reasonable explanation for that incident.
Lord Pifferdoo he/him Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 (edited) Sorry for not posting yesterday, I've been really tired, plus college scholarships are a lot of work to apply for. I'm going to vote to lynch Wyrm because of my own suspicions, along with the mega-posts, emphasizing Seonid's analyses . Has anyone got PMs from Seekers? EDIT: Lynching Colours Edited January 10, 2015 by Lord Pifferdoo
Ashiok Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 I forgot, I did the same thing you did when asked, then went back to double check.
ostrichofevil he/him Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 You're voting for me for the "same undisclosed reasons as before?" That sounds mighty suspicious, Herwynbe.
little wilson she/her Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 As I've mentioned to a couple of you in PMs, I need to take a short break from the game. Nothing extreme. Just for the day. A friend pointed out to me that I've been pushing myself too hard the last few days in regards to the game, and I realized they were right. Between keeping up with everything going on in PMs and the information and then the analysis posts, plus work in real life, I've ended up getting far too little sleep the last 5 nights in a row, and I've exerted almost all of my brainpower into analyzing and I'm pretty sure I've crossed into the overthinking/overanalyzing stage. For both my own personal sake and my health as well as being the best player I can, I need to take a step back. As such, I'm going to immerse myself in other things for the rest of this day, maybe watch a movie or a tv show, play some piano or a game, or just whatever. The point is, I won't be doing the game. However, I get email whenever I get a PM, and I'll be keeping up with those. If anything urgent comes up that requires me immediate attention, I'll respond quickly. So I am still here, if needed. Before I go, I'll vote, since I need to. My vote is going on Ostrich, for the reasons laid out in my megapost: he's been the most consistently suspicious player this game. 1
Sarcomere Posted January 10, 2015 Posted January 10, 2015 I vote for Ostrich (for the third time). Third time's the charm, right? I'll admit that I really do want to see him lynched. I feel like he just hasn't given satisfactory reasons for some of his actions. On Day 2, I retracted my vote for Ostrich because Ash said that Eliminators don't kill a player just because that player suspected one of their own. Ash's words: "@ spiked killing Kas b/c he was suspicious of ostrich: No. No and no. That's exactly what eliminators don't do. Public suspicions of spiked don't lead to killings like that. It puts too much suspicion on those listed." (I should probably figure out how to quote things.) I thought about that. My conclusion is that we can't assume everyone on the dead people's suspect lists are innocent, either. If we are so willing and set in our ways to assign innocence to dead people's suspects, maybe the spiked found that a good strategy--killing players who suspected their own.
Seonid he/him Posted January 11, 2015 Posted January 11, 2015 (edited) Just wanted to point out something. If Wilson has been contacted by a Village Coinshot who mistakenly shot Ren, that means that the evidence for a Spiked Mistborn becomes more shaky. I don't want to say there isn't (because ruling something like that out would be most unwise, and possibly fatal...), but it's no longer a cut and dry case. Also, I'd like to vote as well right now. So confusing. (And so few votes...this isn't a good sign guys.) I'm going to try something new (at least for me). I'm going to put a vote on Hero because I do find the lack of reasons for his suspicion of Ostrich questionable at best. This should (by my count) bring up the count of votes on Hero to 2 and on Ostrich to 3. My reasoning for this is that they are now close enough for significant voting shenanigans to be pulled. Both of them are suspicious to us right now, so lynching either will give valuable information. And, if votes are messed with by emotional Allomancers, this also gives us more information. (I hope that my thoughts on this matter are clear. If not, feel free to ask for clarification.) EDIT: Ninja'd by Sarcomere. The vote tally should stand at 2 for Hero and 4 for Ostrich now. Edited January 11, 2015 by Seonid
Unodus he/him Posted January 11, 2015 Posted January 11, 2015 Well, since this might be my only contribution to this cycle because I've been out of the loop so long (sorry x.x)- I suggest that we shouldn't lynch anyone without undeniable evidence, we're sort of making a lot of assumptions based on what people are saying and not what the seekers are seeing- yknow? Doing Team Spikes job for them, etc? For that reason, I'm going to avoid writing a huge wall of text and vote for nobody- sorry Ok, thats my contribution to the discussion (please don't kill me ;-; )
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