LG112 - Metacycle Nine: The RolePier Strikes Back

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

LG112 - Metacycle Nine: The RolePier Strikes Back

Finally, they decided to ban their next suspect. They banned Star, and all hell broke loose. The Shard immediately shut down again, and even worse, they couldn't contact Striker any more.

The Roleplay Characters were fighting back.

~

Striker has died! They were a SE Player Lurker.

Star has been executed! They were a vanilla SE Player.

Vote Count:

Star (3): Divergent, Araris, Hoid

This cycle will end on Wednesday the 24th of June at 11:00 AM Central Time.

Players:

Spoiler

• @coco.pudding as Coco Roleplay Character PseudoIM
• @Through The Living Star as Star SE Player Vanilla 
• @CoderDrag0n8 as Coder  SE Player Retiree
• @Myst as Mistake  , SE Player Vanilla
• @StrikerEZ as Striker SE Player Lurker
• @Qianweilian as Qianweilian Roleplay Character Lurker
• @Through the Living Hopper as Hopper SE Player Roleplayer
• @CadCom as Cam SE Player Vanilla 
• @Verdance as Verdance  Roleplay Character PseudoGM
• @TwinStorm as TwinStorm -> replaced by @Divergent
• @Hoid Slayer as Hoid Slayer  
• @___ as Mippo SE Player Retiree
• @xinoehp512 as Xinoehp512 
• @Araris Valerian as Araris Valerian 
• @|TJ| as TJ SE Player PseudoIM 
• @Kit_Kat as Kit Kat 
• @Questioning Lettuce as Questioning Lettuce SE Player Lurker
• @Miss Fallen SE Player Thread Controller

 

[Myst He/Him]

Xino then yall?

I think we can confirm that the conversion has been used though btw

[Araris Valerian he/him]

50 minutes ago, Myst said:

Xino then yall?

I think we can confirm that the conversion has been used though btw

Pretty much. There is an active elim that is not xino.

[Stardust She/Her]

Well, on the bright side, you guys will believe me now! 

Though I do understand why you voted me out. I was very suspicious

[|TJ| he/him]

I would like you explore some other possibilities - 

Did you mention to anyone at all that you were a pseudo-elim, @Stardust?

[Stardust She/Her]

2 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I would like you explore some other possibilities - 

Did you mention to anyone at all that you were a pseudo-elim, @Stardust?

Nope. I just checked in all my PMs to be sure (all three of them xD), and I never said anything. Obviously I never said anything in the thread, so unless one of the other Psuedo elims said something in a PM, there has to be a mole. 

Or they took a shot in the dark and got lucky, which I find to be very unlikely, but it is still a possibility. 

[|TJ| he/him]

The other option is a Seeker, but I just checked the list of roles and the only Seeker in the game (after I was changed) was CadCom who has flipped village. 

Another option is some other pseudo-elim slipped up somewhere so I'd ask you guys to check if you slipped up anywhere.  

ed1t: check the world docs as well

[Araris Valerian he/him]

31 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I would like you explore some other possibilities - 

Did you mention to anyone at all that you were a pseudo-elim, @Stardust?

The way I see it, we currently have 2 main facts to go on here:

1. The elims knew to kill Star in pseudocycle 5 (implying a mole)
2. The elims missed their NK both in metacycle 5 and metacycle 7 (implying low activity)

At this point e!xino seems like the most straightforward explanation for both of these. Neither of these implications are 100% proofs, but it's what I've got to go on.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

Okay wait wait can we pause

There’s five of us left, we assume two elims, we make the wrong choice here and it’s over

Return of an NK signals to me that convert is 100% active

I’m gonna definitely make sure to do a better analysis before rollover, hopefully with time, but just immediate thoughts

Is there any reason we have to believe that one of the OG pseudoelims was meta-elim other than logic?

Cause despite the odds, I myself don’t love resting an exe merely on our predictions of what our GMs would have chosen to balance the game

4 hours ago, Stardust said:

Well, on the bright side, you guys will believe me now! 

Though I do understand why you voted me out. I was very suspicious

Yeah sorry ‘bout that

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

The elims knew to kill Star in pseudocycle 5 (implying a mole)

Was there no mention of Star as a pseudoelim in the main threads before the end of the pseudogame?

Would any player, dead or alive, like to come forward about leaking this information? (I myself will have to check whether I told Myst or not cause I don’t remember)

Is there any way the meta-elims coulda find out, some role that coulda let them know Star was pseudo-elim?

Also, just in case, Araris Valerian, our OG meta-elim team doesn’t seem like the most experienced and you are def the most tempting conversion target, also said some things I didn’t love, for example a while ago mentioning how elims were unlikely to NK suspected conversion targets naming himself - an actual convert would need real reason to justify why they aren’t getting NKed, especially someone like Araris, and this seems like a clean way to do it

Okay just checked my PMs I actually told Myst Star wasn’t a pseudo-elim at some point by accident, I don’t remember the full circumstances, but still not what we’re looking for

[Araris Valerian he/him]

27 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Cause despite the odds, I myself don’t love resting an exe merely on our predictions of what our GMs would have chosen to balance the game

This seems a bit hypocritical, since this was the kind of reasoning everyone was using to exe Lettuce over xino (meta-elim coinshot is supposedly too strong) a couple of turns ago.

We just spent 2 turns working our way through the list of potential moles, and now that there's only one left, we stop? What kind of crazy logic is that?

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

This seems a bit hypocritical, since this was the kind of reasoning everyone was using to exe Lettuce over xino (meta-elim coinshot is supposedly too strong) a couple of turns ago.

We just spent 2 turns working our way through the list of potential moles, and now that there's only one left, we stop? What kind of crazy logic is that?

The one that the stakes are higher now and maybe we should try and consider other logic

[Araris Valerian he/him]

9 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

The one that the stakes are higher now and maybe we should try and consider other logic

Well, that “other logic” is exactly how I’ve won games as an elim before; create a reasonable POE, kill all the villagers in it, then shift gears and leave your teammates alive.

Has xino done anything to make you think he’s village? Do you have an alternative explanation for Star getting coinshot during pseudocycle 5? Do you have an alternative explanation for the 2 missed NKs? If you are answering no to these questions, you should be voting xino.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

19 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Has xino done anything to make you think he’s village

Nope

19 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Do you have an alternative explanation for Star getting coinshot during pseudocycle 5?

Actually @Stardust anything you’d like to say about that?

19 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Do you have an alternative explanation for the 2 missed NKs?

KitKat exists

@Kit_Kat

[Myst He/Him]

4 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Okay just checked my PMs I actually told Myst Star wasn’t a pseudo-elim at some point by accident, I don’t remember the full circumstances, but still not what we’re looking for

That had to do with something Cad said, I don’t remember what though

[Araris Valerian he/him]

45 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Actually @Stardust anything you’d like to say about that?

8 hours ago, Stardust said:

Nope. I just checked in all my PMs to be sure (all three of them xD), and I never said anything. Obviously I never said anything in the thread, so unless one of the other Psuedo elims said something in a PM, there has to be a mole. 

Or they took a shot in the dark and got lucky, which I find to be very unlikely, but it is still a possibility. 

 

47 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

KitKat exists

If by some coincidence the elims managed to guess Star’s identity (in other words, if Xino is village) then yeah, Kit Kat is almost certainly elim. I just would rather not bet the game on a coincidence.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

25 minutes ago, Myst said:

That had to do with something Cad said, I don’t remember what though

Can you try and check?

[Stardust She/Her]

3 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Actually @Stardust anything you’d like to say about that?

Uhhh I'm not sure what you're asking here. 

I don't know how I got coinshot other than if they had a mole or if they got a lucky guess. 

[Divergent He/Him]

Tbh if Araris is elim, I just don't get why there would be no kill on two different nights

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

2 hours ago, Divergent said:

Tbh if Araris is elim, I just don't get why there would be no kill on two different nights

Presumably cause Araris was not converted then

Look the convert candidates are you, me, Araris

I know it’s not me

You’re either lying about being confused here or you’re innocent

That leaves Araris

Of course, my perspective might change after I analyze a bit later, I’m just trying to look in other directions than the path that has been laid for us

[Qianweilian He/him]

This game is taking forever.

[|TJ| he/him]

20 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

The way I see it, we currently have 2 main facts to go on here:

1. The elims knew to kill Star in pseudocycle 5 (implying a mole)
2. The elims missed their NK both in metacycle 5 and metacycle 7 (implying low activity)

At this point e!xino seems like the most straightforward explanation for both of these. Neither of these implications are 100% proofs, but it's what I've got to go on.

I will concede the point to you, yes. 

17 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Also, just in case, Araris Valerian, our OG meta-elim team doesn’t seem like the most experienced and you are def the most tempting conversion target, also said some things I didn’t love, for example a while ago mentioning how elims were unlikely to NK suspected conversion targets naming himself - an actual convert would need real reason to justify why they aren’t getting NKed, especially someone like Araris, and this seems like a clean way to do it

 

To us, there is no reason why Araris would be more suspicious than you, tbh. Your anti-synergy with Coco does make you a perfect candidate for the convert. Where I don't see Araris missing a kill, I do see a team with you might. 

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

11 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

To us, there is no reason why Araris would be more suspicious than you, tbh. Your anti-synergy with Coco does make you a perfect candidate for the convert. Where I don't see Araris missing a kill, I do see a team with you might. 

Fair

Obviously, I know I'm not evil, but I'm not quite sure of a way to convince you of that, nor that I have to at this point in time

...

Alright guys lock in time

Let me open up another tab

The suspects in question:

Kit_Kat, Xinoehp512, TwinStorm

The cohorts:

coco.pudding, Qianweilian, Verdance

I doubt I can play to convince any of you that our GMs would've balanced this game with only three starting meta-elims

The wager:

PseudoVillage Victory

Let's begin with the pseudo-elim doc

Xino:

Early activity

Asks who people think meta-elims bet on

Dies early and says nothing else

So no real info there

Notably would have been a meta-elim pseudo-Coinshot who holstered his kill. Didn't someone say at some point that an elim always shoots? Food for thought

...

Aaaaaand I gotta go part two coming soon

@xinoehp512@Kit_Kat get in here

Edited 2 hours ago by Hoid Slayer

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

2 hours ago, Qianweilian said:

This game is taking forever.

You guys could have bet on the elims and this would be over by now

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

Okay I'm back

Pseudo-Cycle 1

Xino:

Pops in before rollover to vote Coder, kill him over me (it was a 2-2 tie)

Is quite weird about it tbh

Kit Kat:

Replies to a post from Myst with: "Very interesting!"

Twinstorm:

Does nothing

Meta-Cycle 1

Xino:

Says he did not shoot (did not), didn't tell anyone he was a Coinshot, asks for VC

Kit Kat:

Tries to vote me last minute but doesn't beat rollover. Doesn't put any explanation, just the name in the post. Other people voting me were TJ/Striker (so no would-be elim teammates)

Twinstorm:

Does nothing

Pseudo-Cycle 2

Xino:

Does nothing

Kit Kat:

When pressed about voting me, responds cryptically "You seem suspicious..."

Says she thinks I know too much. Votes Verdance (interesting, considering Verdance is a meta-elim)

Calls out Verdance for acting weird

Lightly prods Araris

Twinstorm:

Does nothing

Meta-Cycle 2

Xino:

Does nothing

Kit Kat:

Votes Xino

I don't know why

Twinstorm:

Does nothing

...

Okay I don't really want to keep this up

What I am gonna say:

I don't think Kit Kat is evil. I like the vibes I got from her rereading these early cycles, and I also feel like that would probably be too underpowered a starting elim team anyways

I don't think it's Xino. Not only because I feel like Araris is an obvious convert (and Araris isn't backing me up here) but also because he holstered his kill and though I don't know Xino that well I feel like e!him would be playing a bit more presently.

So I think that, from these options, our remaining elim is TwinStorm (Divergent).

HOWEVER, with certain thoughts, and this recent post

2 minutes ago, The Unknown Medallion said:

You guys could have bet on the elims and this would be over by now

I am considering the possibility of only three starting elims, which means we have only the Convert to hunt down, who is between Divergent and Araris.

With this, I feel comfortable killing Araris, for I see two worlds:

1: One more starting elim left.

That elim is Dive. The Convert is, then, Araris.

2: No starting elims left.

The Convert is either Dive or Araris. Most likely Araris.

In one case, Araris is definitely evil. In the other, Araris is probably evil.

Let's kill the bear.

@Divergent get in here

Wait stop why am I calling for Divergent if you’re both elim I’m cooked

@xinoehp512 get in here

@Kit_Kat get in here

[Araris Valerian he/him]

34 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

I don't think it's Xino. Not only because I feel like Araris is an obvious convert (and Araris isn't backing me up here) but also because he holstered his kill and though I don't know Xino that well I feel like e!him would be playing a bit more presently.

xino was literally not on the Shard during either of the turns where the kill didn’t happen, according to his member page “last online” stat. Though he was actually online about an hour ago, so you can’t verify that. My point is, it wasn’t a deliberate choice to “holster his kill”, whatever it was, since he was just unable to submit it.

I’m still not going to go into detail about my convert suspicious, because after we exe xino the convert will NK someone, and I don’t want to tell them who to not kill if I’m wrong. I was actually kinda suspicious of Striker, and he got NK’d, which makes me glad I never mentioned that.

37 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

I am considering the possibility of only three starting elims, which means we have only the Convert to hunt down, who is between Divergent and Araris.

You realize we would have gotten 2 elim flips if we’d won the bet, right? Unless they were exactly coco and Qian, we’d have won by now. Also, there’s absolutely no way we had 3 starting elims with 17 players. Conventional wisdom is 25% if the elims don’t have access to strong roles. This game has an alignment scanner but no defense against it, which is why I was considering 5 starting elims a while back.

I have to say, your frantic defense of a totally inactive player is really not doing much for me. It’s clear to me that you believe that exeing xino will make you lose the game. What’s not clear is why you believe that. All the evidence I have points to him as being elim.

53 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

I don't think Kit Kat is evil. I like the vibes I got from her rereading these early cycles, and I also feel like that would probably be too underpowered a starting elim team anyways

You realize that since those early cycles, there has been a conversion?