Myst He/Him Posted March 15 Posted March 15 3 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: I want in on all the special codes. 11 has 13 I Doubt that.
Burnt Spaghetti she/her Posted March 15 Posted March 15 2 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: I Doubt that. okay okay. 18
Wonko the Sane he/him Posted March 15 Posted March 15 18 minutes ago, Stick. said: i think a captain is the straightfoward answer but also, if it's burnt/coco/archer/hael then i can see them planning ahead for contingencies and just having coco casually talk to ash about the L1 dead doc earlier this loop in a non-game-related way - it checks out with archer repeatedly asking hael to relay info from ash but idk if the team is that sweaty lol more likely captain,, maybe coco had it Nope. Coco cannot possibly have had the Captain's Hat Loop A. She made 8 total posts on the first day, only 1 of which contained both RP and what could very loosely be described as discussion. At absolute maximum, she entered N1A with 19 rupees. I'm still looking through, but I'm increasingly confident that only Mist and I earned max rupees D1A. So v!Stick worlds can ONLY exist if there is an elim in <Drake, Wonko, Mistfallen>. Who exactly do you think is the elim there, Stick?
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 15 Author Posted March 15 If someone buys Captain's Hat at night I would not pre-write their name and they can fly incognito. 1
Stick. she/her Posted March 16 Posted March 16 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said: Nope. Coco cannot possibly have had the Captain's Hat Loop A. She made 8 total posts on the first day, only 1 of which contained both RP and what could very loosely be described as discussion. At absolute maximum, she entered N1A with 19 rupees. I'm still looking through, but I'm increasingly confident that only Mist and I earned max rupees D1A. So v!Stick worlds can ONLY exist if there is an elim in <Drake, Wonko, Mistfallen>. Who exactly do you think is the elim there, Stick? gun to head, u i guess? I don’t think drake NKs himself at this stage, and mist Idrt is e anymore coz it doesn’t make a ton of sense either with e!coco and L3D1. been thinking the last is archer so…might do a rupee count for L1 captains myself as well tmr if I get the chance to and look into other possibilities separate to this Edited March 16 by Stick.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 16 Posted March 16 Of Drake/Wonko/Mist I would pretty strongly favor Mist as an elim. That would give us a Burnt/Hael/Mist/Twinstorm team, since there is pretty much no way that Burnt, coco, and Mist are all elims together. Or we could have already lost and TJ is really in that fourth slot . In this world, the elims go into L3 planning to lose, since none of them have died yet. The Burnt claim is just an opportunity to clear either her or Mist to prepare for L4. But since we misexed coco on D1, they have a chance to go for the win here by getting Stick killed.
Myst He/Him Posted March 16 Posted March 16 47 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: okay okay. 18 Still no
Wonko the Sane he/him Posted March 16 Posted March 16 (edited) 1 hour ago, Stick. said: gun to head, u i guess? I don’t think drake NKs himself at this stage, and mist Idrt is e anymore coz it doesn’t make a ton of sense either with e!coco and L3D1. been thinking the last is archer so…might do a rupee count for L1 captains myself as well tmr if I get the chance to and look into other possibilities separate to this I count a maximum of 8 total rupees across 6 total posts. You're going to need to accuse someone in <Drake, Wonko, Mistfallen>, I'm afraid. There's no way around it at this point. So, from what I can see, we can compile what I think is the entire set of all possible elim teams. This isn't an analysis on what I consider likely, it's a full, exhaustive list of literally every team I think is logically possible, given the following assumptions: We know there are zero elims among the Loop A dead. We know there is at most one elim in the Loop B dead. We basically know that Burnt is an elim. We can conclude (from the claims today) that there is an elim in <Hael, Drake, Stick> We can conclude (from the claims today) that if Stick is village, there is an elim in <Drake, Wonko, Mist> Given all those as assumptions, we're left with what I see as 4 possible worlds (split by which of <Hael, Drake, Stick> is an elim). The elim team must be one of: Burnt, Stick, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc> Burnt, Drake, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc> Burnt, Hael, Wonko, <Twin/Mist/Doc/Coco> Burnt, Hael, Mist, <Basically anyone> Now, if we are in a Burnt/Hael/Mist or Burnt/Hael/Wonko world, we've basically already lost, barring Hail Mary plays with masks to block or redirect the NK tonight. So I think we should ignore that possibility, as there's not really a solution. I do realize that this is the category that includes e!Wonko, though, so feel free to take it with a grain of salt. e!Drake worlds are tricky. I can really only see one valid reason for Drake to kill himself last night -- a WILD play for control of the Loop, by making us exe v!Stick. This only works if we've exed ZERO elims so far this Loop, so it requires a v!Coco, v!Twin world. That leaves us with two elims out of <Hael, Mist, Doc>. We also have Doc's PM data from Loop A. There are three possible interpretations to it: either Doc is an elim, Burnt managed to figured out in advance that the Postman would see all PMs, or no PM in Loop A was sent between an e/e pair. Assuming Burnt didn't figure it out, we can reduce the reasonable teams to: Burnt, Stick, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc> Burnt, Drake, Doc, <Hael/Mist> Burnt, Hael, Wonko, Doc (probably lost) Burnt, Hael, Mist, Doc (probably lost) And then we have the most straightforward world: Burnt/Stick. Based on the PM data, this reduces to two worlds: Burnt, Stick, Doc, <Coco/Mist> Burnt, Stick, <Doc/Twin/Hael>, <Doc/Twin/Hael> So, interestingly, what we find is that Doc is on nearly every plausible elim team. I didn't think that's where I'd end up going into this post, but hey, what do you know? Stick. Doc. For the record, I still think that Stick is likely an elim. I just think that Burnt/Stick/Twin/Hael is VERY unlikely, and that's the only scenario I can see that voting Stick is better than voting Doc. Edited March 16 by Wonko the Sane Got rid of artifacts from shifting paragraphs around before I posted; I was speaking with an assumption that I had only brought up later on. 1
Burnt Spaghetti she/her Posted March 16 Posted March 16 1 hour ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: Still no What do you meean still no?? 12???
Myst He/Him Posted March 16 Posted March 16 21 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: What do you meean still no?? 12??? You said nonsense. It didn’t make sense. You tried to say something in a language you didn’t know, and ended up saying nothing. Archer can back me up on this 12, that could mean something depending on how it’s formatted.
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted March 16 Posted March 16 1 hour ago, Wonko the Sane said: I count a maximum of 8 total rupees across 6 total posts. You're going to need to accuse someone in <Drake, Wonko, Mistfallen>, I'm afraid. There's no way around it at this point. So, from what I can see, we can compile what I think is the entire set of all possible elim teams. This isn't an analysis on what I consider likely, it's a full, exhaustive list of literally every team I think is logically possible, given the following assumptions: We know there are zero elims among the Loop A dead. We know there is at most one elim in the Loop B dead. We basically know that Burnt is an elim. We can conclude (from the claims today) that there is an elim in <Hael, Drake, Stick> We can conclude (from the claims today) that if Stick is village, there is an elim in <Drake, Wonko, Mist> Given all those as assumptions, we're left with what I see as 4 possible worlds (split by which of <Hael, Drake, Stick> is an elim). The elim team must be one of: Burnt, Stick, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc> Burnt, Drake, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc> Burnt, Hael, Wonko, <Twin/Mist/Doc/Coco> Burnt, Hael, Mist, <Basically anyone> Now, if we are in a Burnt/Hael/Mist or Burnt/Hael/Wonko world, we've basically already lost, barring Hail Mary plays with masks to block or redirect the NK tonight. So I think we should ignore that possibility, as there's not really a solution. I do realize that this is the category that includes e!Wonko, though, so feel free to take it with a grain of salt. e!Drake worlds are tricky. I can really only see one valid reason for Drake to kill himself last night -- a WILD play for control of the Loop, by making us exe v!Stick. This only works if we've exed ZERO elims so far this Loop, so it requires a v!Coco, v!Twin world. That leaves us with two elims out of <Hael, Mist, Doc>. We also have Doc's PM data from Loop A. There are three possible interpretations to it: either Doc is an elim, Burnt managed to figured out in advance that the Postman would see all PMs, or no PM in Loop A was sent between an e/e pair. Assuming Burnt didn't figure it out, we can reduce the reasonable teams to: Burnt, Stick, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc> Burnt, Drake, Doc, <Hael/Mist> Burnt, Hael, Wonko, Doc (probably lost) Burnt, Hael, Mist, Doc (probably lost) And then we have the most straightforward world: Burnt/Stick. Based on the PM data, this reduces to two worlds: Burnt, Stick, Doc, <Coco/Mist> Burnt, Stick, <Doc/Twin/Hael>, <Doc/Twin/Hael> So, interestingly, what we find is that Doc is on nearly every plausible elim team. I didn't think that's where I'd end up going into this post, but hey, what do you know? Stick. Doc. For the record, I still think that Stick is likely an elim. I just think that Burnt/Stick/Twin/Hael is VERY unlikely, and that's the only scenario I can see that voting Stick is better than voting Doc. What worlds would it eliminate if Doc and Hael were absolutely 100% not e/e for reasons
Doc12 Posted March 16 Posted March 16 Hm. That's interesting. So I've been sitting on this info all day waiting to see what comes out. I really thought the teammate would be Archer, and I'll have to re-evaluate what teams are possible - obviously I don't agree with Wonko's assessment, because here's what I have been doing. Sorry @Ashbringer, I did not go for Keaton. The reason I didn't get a purple D1 was because I was saving for something much better. I PM'd you that night, but that was also the night you died. The Mask of Truth says Haelbarde is a Minion of Mischief. 1
Myst He/Him Posted March 16 Posted March 16 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Doc12 said: Hm. That's interesting. So I've been sitting on this info all day waiting to see what comes out. I really thought the teammate would be Archer, and I'll have to re-evaluate what teams are possible - obviously I don't agree with Wonko's assessment, because here's what I have been doing. Sorry @Ashbringer, I did not go for Keaton. The reason I didn't get a purple D1 was because I was saving for something much better. I PM'd you that night, but that was also the night you died. The Mask of Truth says Haelbarde is a Minion of Mischief. Just to make sure, can you walk me through your rupee counts? Cause I obviously missed something since I didn’t know you had enough, despite trying to track rupees. postman loop 1, but you lost rupees with that since you PMed people. That leaves you at around ~40 at the end of loop 1. Loop 2 with bunny… which doubles due to the rule change… Oh, I see, I didn’t change that. Bunny would’ve given you 60. That means you had the rupees for this. And I’m willing to believe it. I trust you, and I was going to exe Hael anyways in case I was wrong about Twin. So… does this leave us with a Hael/Coco/Burnt/Stick Elim team? Edit: nice move though Doc. I gotta respect that. Lucky shot though. Edited March 16 by Mistfallen Soldier
Doc12 Posted March 16 Posted March 16 3 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: Just to make sure, can you walk me through your rupee counts? Cause I obviously missed something since I didn’t know you had enough, despite trying to track rupees. postman loop 1, but you lost rupees with that since you PMed people. That leaves you at around ~40 at the end of loop 1. Loop 2 with bunny… which doubles due to the rule change… Oh, I see, I didn’t change that. Bunny would’ve given you 60. That means you had the rupees for this. And I’m willing to believe it. I trust you, and I was going to exe Hael anyways in case I was wrong about Twin. So… does this leave us with a Hael/Coco/Burnt/Stick Elim team? Yeah I'm honestly surprised no one called me out for having postman loop 1 and bunny loop 2 And then me making absolutely sure I had 10 rupees D1C. And saying "oh I didn't go for a purple" I mean I'm glad no one checked. But I've claimed to the confirmed villagers. Appreciate Wahr and TUM for keeping it discreet until now! 1
Myst He/Him Posted March 16 Posted March 16 1 minute ago, Doc12 said: Yeah I'm honestly surprised no one called me out for having postman loop 1 and bunny loop 2 And then me making absolutely sure I had 10 rupees D1C. And saying "oh I didn't go for a purple" I mean I'm glad no one checked. But I've claimed to the confirmed villagers. Appreciate Wahr and TUM for keeping it discreet until now! Well I forgot to consider the rule change to bunny, otherwise I’d have PMed you asking what mask you got. So good job, I was completely blindsided
Archer he/him Posted March 16 Posted March 16 Ooh, spicy plot twist! Can confirm that Doc PMed TUM and Wahr. I'm very confused why Hael bothered relaying the info about Stick. I didn't think they'd do that in a must-win cycle. Deepwolfing can only take you so far when two teammates are outed. So Burnt/Stick/Hael/(Not Doc, living pool player, could be Coco or TS) is the team. So we block Mistfallen to guarantee the loop win.
Doc12 Posted March 16 Posted March 16 35 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: Just to make sure, can you walk me through your rupee counts? Cause I obviously missed something since I didn’t know you had enough, despite trying to track rupees. postman loop 1, but you lost rupees with that since you PMed people. That leaves you at around ~40 at the end of loop 1. Loop 2 with bunny… which doubles due to the rule change… Oh, I see, I didn’t change that. Bunny would’ve given you 60. That means you had the rupees for this. And I’m willing to believe it. I trust you, and I was going to exe Hael anyways in case I was wrong about Twin. So… does this leave us with a Hael/Coco/Burnt/Stick Elim team? Edit: nice move though Doc. I gotta respect that. Lucky shot though. To be exact, there's a couple of fun things happening. So Postmasters essentially send mail for free, so i didn't lose rupees sending PMs, which was great. Very sad I don't have it again. So I came into Loop 2 with around 47 rupees. Also bunny mask only started working the night I equipped it, so the first 8 rupees I earned in D1B weren't doubled. Still, I came into Loop 3 with exactly 91 rupees, and I got 10 on D1C. Was only able to send 1 PM that night, and it happened to be the confirmed villager that died Now you see why I didn't go for Stone
Wonko the Sane he/him Posted March 16 Posted March 16 (edited) Well, there are only two malleable assumptions in my analysis: I assumed that e!Drake means v!Coco and v!Twin. I assumed that Burnt would not have PMed any of her teammates unless Doc was also one of her teammates. Doc being able to afford a 100-rupee mask is plausible, but it doesn't mean that he's telling the truth. That said, I think we can agree that this claim means <Hael, Doc> must contain at least one elim. Factoring that in, and resetting the above assumptions, I get: Burnt, Stick, <Hael/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc> Burnt, Drake, <Hael/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc> Burnt, Hael, Wonko, <Coco/Twin/Mist/Doc> Burnt, Hael, Mist, <Basically anyone> Let's assume v!Doc for a second and see where that gets us. In Burnt/Stick/Hael worlds, we have to question why Hael willingly gave Stick up to the thread. In my opinion, this only happens if the elims are completely abandoning this Loop, feeling that they've lost it already. This only happens if we've already had an elim die, so we have to conclude that Coco or Twin is the final elim. In Burnt/Hael worlds that DON'T have Stick in them, this is a concerted effort to push a Stick exe through, presumably to win the Loop. if e!Drake, we're again looking at the crazy gambit, meaning Coco and Twin CANNOT be elims. If v!Drake AND v!Stick, then the elims MUST have access to the Loop A dead doc, meaning that there's an elim in <Wonko, Mistfallen> Burnt, Stick, Hael, <Coco/Twin> Burnt, Drake, Hael, Mist Burnt, Hael, Wonko, <Coco/Twin/Mist> Burnt, Hael, Mist, <Basically anyone> Note: Every one of these possibilities has Burnt PMing another elim for seemingly no reason. We must conclude in that case that Burnt knew about the Postman's ability to see PM recipients. Or, I suppose, that she was just feeling silly? I hate to deal with that, but it's not entirely out of character. Also, looking at this, I did actually miss last time that Burnt/Hael/Wonko and Burnt/Hael/Mist aren't lost games. Somehow my mind went "three elims are alive in these worlds, therefore zero elims are dead". Woops. So these worlds are actually worth considering, as long as the remaining elim is Coco or Twin. Anyway, I'm up way too late and my analysis is probably suffering for it. I'm going to bed, and hopefully people can logic this through by the time I get up. I definitely feel like we now have enough pieces to be very confident about teams going forward. EDIT: I realized what my mistake on the supposedly unwinnable teams was: I wrote that paragraph AFTER concluding that those team had to have Doc on them (because of Burnt's PMs), then moved the paragraph around in the post without considering what it did to the chain of logic. Apologies. Edited March 16 by Wonko the Sane
Myst He/Him Posted March 16 Posted March 16 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Doc12 said: To be exact, there's a couple of fun things happening. So Postmasters essentially send mail for free, so i didn't lose rupees sending PMs, which was great. Very sad I don't have it again. So I came into Loop 2 with around 47 rupees. Also bunny mask only started working the night I equipped it, so the first 8 rupees I earned in D1B weren't doubled. Still, I came into Loop 3 with exactly 91 rupees, and I got 10 on D1C. Was only able to send 1 PM that night, and it happened to be the confirmed villager that died Now you see why I didn't go for Stone I thought I had factored that in? You got one rupee back since you count as a player sending PMs, but you sent 5 each for the first two days, plus one to me near the end, and you only got 8back from other people PMing. you spent 15 got 9 back the maximum amount of normal rupees able to be get is 40(30 from posting plus 10 to start) That leaves us with 34 rupees at the end of N3A. you got 8 rupees d1B, 4 rupees N1B, and then 40 from the rest of the loop. With no PMs that comes to 84. you had 84 at the end of N3B with 10 rupees earned that goes to 94 That means I missed 7 rupees somewhere. Where? Edit: btw, I’m getting the number of rupees he spent/earned from PMs from D1B, page 2, where he put the specifics Edited March 16 by Mistfallen Soldier
Myst He/Him Posted March 16 Posted March 16 (edited) 7 minutes ago, The Unknown Medallion said: Is Doc just an elim here I’m not confident anymore. Unless he has a way to explain those 7 rupees that went missing Edit: you should fact check my math though Edited March 16 by Mistfallen Soldier
Haelbarde he/him Posted March 16 Posted March 16 Okay, this is wild. 1 hour ago, Doc12 said: Hm. That's interesting. So I've been sitting on this info all day waiting to see what comes out. I really thought the teammate would be Archer, and I'll have to re-evaluate what teams are possible - obviously I don't agree with Wonko's assessment, because here's what I have been doing. Sorry @Ashbringer, I did not go for Keaton. The reason I didn't get a purple D1 was because I was saving for something much better. I PM'd you that night, but that was also the night you died. The Mask of Truth says Haelbarde is a Minion of Mischief. Thanks for outing yourself, that makes my life a little easier. I also had assumed that we more than likely had already lost, so it's super useful to know that actually we're close enough to working it all out that you've got to try and force a misexecution. 6 minutes ago, The Unknown Medallion said: Is Doc just an elim here As far as I am concerned, yes. I will note, if it turns out that Doc could indeed have the funds to buy the Mask of Truth, the bigger issue is that he will have purchased the Great Fairy Mask and will be able to resurrect an executed elim if he survives the execution. Which... say we execute Stick, and there's 1 elim already in the dead doc, and there's a night kill that hits a village. 10 players living, 8:2 would be village victory. But if doc resurrects one of the dead elims, it becomes 11 players and 8:3, which is an elim victory, both of the loop and of the game.
Myst He/Him Posted March 16 Posted March 16 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Haelbarde said: Okay, this is wild. Thanks for outing yourself, that makes my life a little easier. I also had assumed that we more than likely had already lost, so it's super useful to know that actually we're close enough to working it all out that you've got to try and force a misexecution. As far as I am concerned, yes. I will note, if it turns out that Doc could indeed have the funds to buy the Mask of Truth, the bigger issue is that he will have purchased the Great Fairy Mask and will be able to resurrect an executed elim if he survives the execution. Which... say we execute Stick, and there's 1 elim already in the dead doc, and there's a night kill that hits a village. 10 players living, 8:2 would be village victory. But if doc resurrects one of the dead elims, it becomes 11 players and 8:3, which is an elim victory, both of the loop and of the game. I don’t think he can. Check my math, but, using this: I don’t think he’s able to get enough rupees. It was impossible for him to have 47 at the end of loop 1, and 91 at the end of loop 2. Even if he did have 47 at the end of loop 1, using my earlier math of 52 from loop 2. So that comes to 99 at the end of loop 2.(his math is impossible) I take what I said back, which means… Coco/Burnt/Doc/Stick? Edited March 16 by Mistfallen Soldier
Doc12 Posted March 16 Posted March 16 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: I’m not confident anymore. Unless he has a way to explain those 7 rupees that went missing I'm not sure what your count is missing. Happy to break it down? 47 rupees L1 (40 Activity, - 5 for postman, 12 rupees delivering letters) 45 rupees L2 (-5 for bunny + 8 (D1B) + 4 (N1B) + 18 (D2B) + 20 (D3B) 10 rupees L3 (10 D1C) = 102 rupees. Not understanding where you're getting the PM numbers, I definitely got more than 8 back from PMs 7 minutes ago, Haelbarde said: I will note, if it turns out that Doc could indeed have the funds to buy the Mask of Truth, the bigger issue is that he will have purchased the Great Fairy Mask and will be able to resurrect an executed elim if he survives the execution. Which... say we execute Stick, and there's 1 elim already in the dead doc, and there's a night kill that hits a village. 10 players living, 8:2 would be village victory. But if doc resurrects one of the dead elims, it becomes 11 players and 8:3, which is an elim victory, both of the loop and of the game. If I was elim and had great fairy mask, i... would have just revived a dead teammate n2? Apologies, I do have to go to bed because its midnight and I have work tomorrow. Maybe @Amanuensis can explain why I got more back in PMs than you thought? Edited March 16 by Doc12
Myst He/Him Posted March 16 Posted March 16 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Doc12 said: I'm not sure what your count is missing. Happy to break it down? 47 rupees L1 (40 Activity, - 5 for postman, 12 rupees delivering letters) 45 rupees L2 (-5 for bunny + 8 (D1B) + 4 (N1B) + 18 (D2B) + 20 (D3B) 10 rupees L3 (10 D1C) = 102 rupees. Not understanding where you're getting the PM numbers, I definitely got more than 8 back from PMs You’re own post. Only 2 people sent PMs D2AThat’s 2 rupees back. 1 person N2A, 1 rupee back. 4 people D3A, 4 rupees back. 1 person N3A, 1 rupee back. I got these numbers from you: And D1A we established that you got rupees back from the amount of players sending PMs, not the amount of PMs sent. Plus you sent 10 PMs, that’s an extra minus 10 rupees from what you said. And, you got a different number from last post Edit: for proof on how you only got 8 rupees back: Edited March 16 by Mistfallen Soldier
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