Burnt Spaghetti she/her Posted March 9 Posted March 9 2 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: I find it concerning that you’re agreeing with me since I know you’re Elim. Like, I get you still have to put up the facade to convince the others, but I still find it weird because it means I can’t tell if you actually want this to happen. I mean, you can afford to let us win a loop or two I suppose As far as I'm concerned It would be more concerning if people didn't want us both dead. I can understand people taking sides and having preferences on who goes first. But we have to win this loop. We literally have no choice. This is not a loop for trialing random suspicions, we need to have a lot more certainty then we've had the rest of the game. And i know I've not been great at that either. I've been super unsure about anyone. That's why i wanted the mask of scents - at least then i can have some more concrete information to go off. I'd hoped to be able to communicate to people in pms about the mask, see if it lured a nk or not, but with pms going down, that wasn't an option. Killing us both is the only guarantee we have as far as I'm aware. I'll happily take that sacrifice. Does raise the question of who else are we certain enough of to make sure the 3rd exe is correct.  ---  Cindra's hands rushed to her ears, flute clattering on the ground below. The thundering of hooves still rang in her mind. But when she opened her eyes... Her flute lay on a delightfully familiar, well worn pavement. Am I... back again? She looked up, at the happy faces, the busy people preparing for the carnival filled with such excitement and energy. Her hands trembled as she picked her flute up from the ground. She stared at it for a moment, expression grim. She needed to prepare. She had been of no help to anyone previously. She ran. She ran to the place she hadn't been to in... Well almost a week realistically for her. Her home. As she rushed inside of it, the sight of it brought her to tears. But she couldn't stop. Her hands got busy. She grabbed bags. She shoved in a light blanket. She changed into more practical clothes. She put one of her kitchen knives wrapped in a towel carefully into one of the outer pockets. She added some snacks from her pantry. She was not going to be unarmed and unprepared this time. Her hands touched her sheet music carefully. But she left the books. As much as she loved them, they would be of no used. She pulled her pack over her shoulder, grabbed some extra bags, and ran. This time to Thistles shop. 1
Myst He/Him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Just now, Burnt Spaghetti said: As far as I'm concerned It would be more concerning if people didn't want us both dead. I can understand people taking sides and having preferences on who goes first. But we have to win this loop. We literally have no choice. This is not a loop for trialing random suspicions, we need to have a lot more certainty then we've had the rest of the game. And i know I've not been great at that either. I've been super unsure about anyone. That's why i wanted the mask of scents - at least then i can have some more concrete information to go off. I'd hoped to be able to communicate to people in pms about the mask, see if it lured a nk or not, but with pms going down, that wasn't an option. Killing us both is the only guarantee we have as far as I'm aware. I'll happily take that sacrifice. Does raise the question of who else are we certain enough of to make sure the 3rd exe is correct.  ---  Cindra's hands rushed to her ears, flute clattering on the ground below. The thundering of hooves still rang in her mind. But when she opened her eyes... Her flute lay on a delightfully familiar, well worn pavement. Am I... back again? She looked up, at the happy faces, the busy people preparing for the carnival filled with such excitement and energy. Her hands trembled as she picked her flute up from the ground. She stared at it for a moment, expression grim. She needed to prepare. She had been of no help to anyone previously. She ran. She ran to the place she hadn't been to in... Well almost a week realistically for her. Her home. As she rushed inside of it, the sight of it brought her to tears. But she couldn't stop. Her hands got busy. She grabbed bags. She shoved in a light blanket. She changed into more practical clothes. She put one of her kitchen knives wrapped in a towel carefully into one of the outer pockets. She added some snacks from her pantry. She was not going to be unarmed and unprepared this time. Her hands touched her sheet music carefully. But she left the books. As much as she loved them, they would be of no used. She pulled her pack over her shoulder, grabbed some extra bags, and ran. This time to Thistles shop. How do you feel about Twin?
Haelbarde he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Did we ever get a Loop 1 Bunny claim? I couldn't see it while skimming through the past loop.
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 (edited) oh cool cool I'm alive very exciting I feel like I finally have some semblance of an idea of what's going on, it's amazing what a little bit of real information can accomplish we're probably going to lose anyways, tbh. but let's talk:  not to belabor the extremely obvious, but at least one of Mistfallen and Burnt must be evil contra Araris and Archer, I'm also going to assert that at most one of Mistfallen and Burnt is evil. From where I'm standing, executing both of them looks like a pretty reasonable idea. If this is E/E and we do that, then the elims just lose the next 2 loops, straight up. And it was completely unforced, they initiated this exchange. And their best-case-scenario in this world still included 1 elim death, in exchange for a single dubious clear. I do think they're observant enough to notice this. I don't think they're brave enough to play 6D chess and do it anyways. Sorry, but only I'm that unhinged. So I think this is exactly one elim in <Mistfallen, Burnt>. Either village!Burnt got lucky and tracked the elim kill to elim!Mistfallen. I'd kind of like for this to be true, since it would validate my negative reads there for most of the game. Or elim!Burnt is aggressively pushing for the final win with village!Mistfallen as the first victim. Honestly a priori this just seems more likely than Burnt getting lucky.  A few random observations: Burnt did not cough up a second scan result until asked for one, which is a small detail but one I don't really love. If there's a loop the elims should aggressively push to win, it's this one. As previously mentioned, if Burnt is evil, this was premeditated, and it has surely occurred to the elims that "exe both players" is a likely response. I mean, I assume the elims would be happy to see us kill Mistfallen and spare Burnt. And they may have thought there was a chance of that happening, considering Stick and myself have been throwing mad shade at Mistfallen. But I don't believe they'd bet the farm on it. If evil Burnt, village Mistfallen, does it make sense? Is there a good elim path to victory here that doesn't come down to just "hope they do exactly what we want lol"? I actually think there are several. A 1-for-1 trade during the first two days puts everything on Day 3. If the elims push through a bad vote on D3, they win. No matter what dirty tricks they use, no matter if they out their entire team by hammering. If the elims are rich, and they probably are since they haven't been dying, the odds look even better for them. The Stone Mask and Keaton Mask can both utterly wreck our LyLo situation. For that matter, if we happened to resolve our 1-for-1 exchange with Mistfallen getting voted out first, I'm pretty sure it's decently possible Burnt could have the funds to make a bid for the Stone Mask in the meantime, which would also usually be a win for the elims. I think Burnt has been doing a good job of earning a lot of rupees, without a very strong presence in discussion as far as I can remember. I think every elim kill or lack thereof so far has been deliberate. This is the closest I've seen for a good explanation for the Ashbringer kill existing: 3 hours ago, Archer said: 3. E!Burnt holding Scents wanted to have an NK to blame Mistfallen for. I think I've solved my own murder! It didn't really make much sense at the time, but it was about rupees. I would've had at least 50 rupees this loop otherwise. Now I've only got 20. Killing a confirmed villager instead of me would've given the elims 50 rupees, and let me keep my 50 rupees. This way they prevented both of those, which is pretty relevant if my guess about the evil path to victory is correct. In conclusion, and I know this is crazy, but what I'm feeling rn is we kill Burnt and not Mistfallen (edit: probably follow that up by killing the wealthier loop 2 survivors, but I don't have any idea who those are off the top of my head) (edit 2: I think Hael is still village here, though if someone wants to reassess the D3A case they're welcome to it. Also don't think Hael is going to afford a purple mask. If true, and if I'm not wrong about Mistfallen v Burnt, exing 3 out of Burnt/Coco/Doc/TwinStorm should be sufficient to save the loop. Assuming the elims don't mechanically overpower anyways with fancy masks.) Killing the scanner and leaving the accused alive is a certifiably insane thing to do but I blame Aman for the rules honestly Edited March 9 by DrakeMarshall
Haelbarde he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 9 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: (edit: probably follow that up by killing the wealthier loop 2 survivors, but I don't have any idea who those are off the top of my head) I was just having a look at that: Doc, Burnt, Coco, Mistfallen haven't died (well, neither have I or TwinStorm, but neither of us have been active enough to get a 50 rupee mask this loop). TUN and Wahr died Loop 1 but have been pretty active Loop 2, so could potentially bid on 50 rupee masks N1 if they get max rupees today. Note that Doc had postmaster Loop 1 so would have gotten bonus cash. Burnt has claimed mask of scents L2 (not that it would prevent her from having achieved 50 rupees by now). No one has claimed Bunny mask either loop. Dangerous candidates would be Doc (with Postmaster L1, and Bunny L2, that's on track for FD levels of money), Burnt (specifically claimed no mask Loop 1 but could be lying), Coco (from Loop 2, they claimed Bremen L1), giving them mega money, or it would be enough to put TUN, Wahr, Mist or myself into 50 rupee mask territory.  (What is 'fun' is that while TUN and Wahr are confirmed village, of Doc, Burnt, Coco, Mist, and Hael, there must be at least 2 eliminators, possibly 3 >>)  Â
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 (edited) yeah so Doc/Burnt seems like it's a thing at least I say we start there  I actually think Coco claiming Bremen L1 with no counterclaim is a slight positive, because it sure does sound like an elim took Bunny Mask L1 and isn't fessing up, so that's a narrower suspect pool right there and Bunny Mask is a mask that is only attractive to people who are earning big, since a 1.5x multiplier is no good if you're not earning anything to begin with so realistically Doc/Burnt/Mistfallen are the decent Loop 1 Bunny Mask candidates Doc also imo fills out the missing "evil tactician" slot if we're still insisting on that profile, and like Burnt has been earning rupees with a seemingly lighter thread presence Doc/Burnt team doesn't agree with Wonko's theory about postman connectives but Doc was the one who supplied the postman data >> edit: oh, right, Doc was postman on L1 so 1 of Burnt/Mistfallen probably had the Bunny Mask L1 well, thanks PoE >> I already knew one of them was evil edit 2: tbh there is also a world where the elims were more willing to pursue the L1 victory because elim Coco got Bremen mask and they had vote manip in their back pocket if they ever needed Edited March 9 by DrakeMarshall
|TJ| he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Btw I do think it's quite a clever way to force at least one misexe. In the name of "maximize the chance of winning", you put forth the recommendation to exe both yourself (Burnt) and Mistfallen, then you need only one more misexe to win the game. Which is why I am stressing the importance of looking at associations, because sure, you exe Burnt and Mistfallen. Then what? Who do you think is the elim among those? We've already had cycles where both were either leading the wagon or had quite a few votes on them, so there's close to nothing new we are going to learn from the cycles we are presumably exeing them. If you want to kill Mistfallen, make a team (of at least 3) around, leading to or leading from Mistfallen that makes sense. Same if you want to prefer Burnt. I cannot stress this enough, we CANNOT exe both. Sure, it's guaranteed to give us an elim but it also guarantees an ML (agreed with Drake that it is absolutely not e/e). You have heard my reasons for preferring to kill the Burnt side of things and you have seen my proposed team of Coco/Burnt/Archer (and also why I prefer to kill Coco first). Now, admittedly, I am slightly less confident of e!Coco -> e!Archer so I will be re-evaluating that while also re-looking at someone like Doc who was firm village in my books. I think I am quite confident of Archer being the most evil out of everyone who died in Loop 2. Divergent and mine were similar thoughts and he was quite villager-y in the doc. I'm leaning village towards Stick as well. Drake would not have killed himself because I don't see how he was quite sure of a village exe on D3B. Perhaps banking on the confidence of a v/v Blast occurring? But eh, not going to entertain those thoughts now. But hitting [Coco/Burnt/Archer] this Loop is absolutely winning imo. ed1t: also yes, pls someone figure out who has more rupees - I might be wrong in my assumption that Coco has more than Burnt.Â
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 (edited) I don't actually think Archer is evil rn but I buy evil Coco I do think evil Burnt usually implies village Divergent, since Divergent was the counterwagon to Burnt that one time 49 minutes ago, |TJ| said: ed1t: also yes, pls someone figure out who has more rupees - I might be wrong in my assumption that Coco has more than Burnt. well we also don't rly know sadly because if we're all on the same page and Burnt is indeed the evil here between Burnt/Mistfallen, we don't know if Burnt bought the Scents Mask or if that was a teammate, and that could affect things a lot ...that said I assume they planned to afford purple masks today. I feel comfortable asserting the elims are powergaming the rupees, considering how a lot of the remaining suspect pool are people who have been earning well in the background, and considering I think elims probably went for the Bunny Mask early, and considering how the NKs were distributed to control village rupee supply (when killing only cleared players last loop would've certainly denied the village more info), and considering how a one-for-one trade like Burnt seems to be angling for just seems to make more sense if they expect they'll have the upper hand mechanically so I'd guess that whoever actually bought the Scents Mask, whether it was Burnt or someone else, could either afford a purple mask today even after buying a red mask last loop, or they were a teammate who wasn't particularly close to hitting the 50 rupee mark. sorry for kinda preflipping you as evil Burnt but the game suddenly made more sense when I did :/  edit: to elaborate on why I think you might be tunneled on Archer: I dunno I think the additional deaths actually made a pretty solid difference here, 3 elims in a pool of 6 players versus 3 elims in a pool of 8 players and Archer could've just not volunteered to explode and our situation this loop would be worse, like even if Archer is evil here and we mistakenly clear him he is leaving his 3 teammates noticeably more exposed by doing that plus to me it reads like they didn't rly want to kill confirmed players last loop, they were forced to react and pick a lower info kill N3 but that was a break in their previous doctrine, because the explosion wasn't their idea Araris also gets some credit for this, I think, but not quite as much since he proposed the plan to avoid getting voted out but he was probably dying either way Edited March 9 by DrakeMarshall
Doc12 Posted March 9 Posted March 9 (edited) Well this was a lot to wake up to. So we lost the loop, and now Burnt is accusing Mistfallen? That's funny. Burnts been so comfortably in the background I wouldn't have expected her to out herself like this if she wasn't utterly confident. Mist is also an interesting target, being village read by most. Why did the Elims win the loop? It makes no sense to have so many deaths last loop and still try to win, unless they were absolutely confident that they could force at least 2 misexes. The accusation makes sense within that playbook, as my initial thought was also "exe them both". it just seems so... Reckless? They're either desperate or very confident, which makes me think there's something we're not seeing. I don't have time for real analysis yet, but I'd also like to try and map out teams later. The burnt/mist discussion makes sense, and I'm happy to vote Burnt. I will say I can afford a purple this cycle. Hoping for PMs to be available this loop. --- Thistle groaned at the pounding on their door. Pounding, like metal hooves. They stuffed their head under their pillow. Did they have to get up ? "Zymni, it's a holiday. Shop doesn't open til 11!" Realization hit. Explosions. The bull. Ap. The skull kid. Zymni dead or missing. They jerk upright. Their store. Their bedroom. Sunlight streaming through the violets on the windowsill , Zymni still at the door. Time rewound again. Without the blessing of forgetting. Goddess. Goddess... Thistle fell back into bed and just started sobbing. Edited March 9 by Doc12 Rp 1
|TJ| he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 12 minutes ago, Doc12 said: Why did the Elims win the loop? It makes no sense to have so many deaths last loop and still try to win, unless they were absolutely confident that they could force at least 2 misexes. Which is why I think e!Archer. They needed 5 village deaths with e!Archer and I assume the Ashbringer kill was to frame Mistfallen (and also possibly bring Ash's rupee count down). ed1t: 32 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: I don't actually think Archer is evil rn but I buy evil Coco do you think the Loop 2 dead doc is pure then?
Through the living Wahr He/Him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Just now, |TJ| said: Which is why I think e!Archer. They needed 5 village deaths with e!Archer and I assume the Ashbringer kill was to frame Mistfallen (and also possibly bring Ash's rupee count down). The weird thing is it gave ash more rupees. He was killed L1 and therefore started L2 with 20 rupees. He bought the Captians Hat for 20 rupees and could have earned up to 30 through the loop. So he has now at least 20 rupees more than if he wasnt killed.
Archer he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 59 minutes ago, |TJ| said: Btw I do think it's quite a clever way to force at least one misexe. In the name of "maximize the chance of winning", you put forth the recommendation to exe both yourself (Burnt) and Mistfallen, then you need only one more misexe to win the game I was hoping E!you would be a little more aggressively in favor of the flip both philosophy, but you're not so far. If we assume that this is pre-planned, you pushing Coco/me as a team coupled with a MF scan makes sense to get the D3 mix. They needed an elim team proposal that worked with the remaining players, hence why you push v!Stick over v!Coco D3. My guess right now is they assume Coco and Mistfallen are valid mixes, then Burnt can either buy invincibility or they're not tightly tied to other teammates. Speaking of teammates, it's interesting that E!Burnt presented this information. Probably because she really has Scents, to uncomplicate the lie, but I do think preserving the deepwolf is a factor. Or misleading us on rupee count if she doesn't have it.  Wonko had Bunny Mask L1, we assumed that contributed to their death. Just now, |TJ| said: Which is why I think e!Archer. They needed 5 village deaths with e!Archer and I assume the Ashbringer kill was to frame Mistfallen (and also possibly bring Ash's rupee count down). I know I soured on them L2, but MF and I are as closely tied as Coco and I, so I'm surprised you zeroed in on me and Coco. I also feel shocked and betrayed they Bremened me L1, no explanation there. You mentioned in the doc that I could have vote manipped D2 instead of tagging Coco, and I could have self exploded early. Both of those forgo the opportunity to scan N2, so I made the correct call to save my charges.Â
|TJ| he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 24 minutes ago, Wahrheitswächter said: He was killed L1 and therefore started L2 with 20 rupees. He bought the Captians Hat for 20 rupees and could have earned up to 30 through the loop. So he has now at least 20 rupees more than if he wasnt killed. Huh, that is indeed true... 7 minutes ago, Archer said: If we assume that this is pre-planned, you pushing Coco/me as a team coupled with a MF scan makes sense to get the D3 mix. They needed an elim team proposal that worked with the remaining players, hence why you push v!Stick over v!Coco D3. You don't believe Coco is evil? And I've been thinking Coco is evil since I've been back in the game. And ehh, I think you're a problem for another day tbh. Like I said, it would be revisiting Doc, so we will see. It would always be a thing for D3C, the first 2 cycles HAS to be Coco/Burnt and I believe that, in itself, is winning. 10 minutes ago, Archer said: I know I soured on them L2, but MF and I are as closely tied as Coco and I, so I'm surprised you zeroed in on me and Coco. I can look for it when I have time to re-read but I didn't see it at all. I am not talking about just votes, it's way to you guys read and analyse each other as well. Besides, I am sorry to keep repeating but Mistfallen is very clearly village. 23 minutes ago, Archer said: You mentioned in the doc that I could have vote manipped D2 instead of tagging Coco, and I could have self exploded early. Both of those forgo the opportunity to scan N2, so I made the correct call to save my charges. Absolutely fair. I might have missed it then, whom did you scan in N2?Â
Stick. she/her Posted March 9 Posted March 9 well i feel pretty vindicated  disagree that this is not an e/e play, seems like the exact kinda e/e play ud do in desperate times when everyone has been pushing a burnt/mistfallen pairing - this is essentially lylo  tho I’ll say to me this indicates mistfallen has probably very little money/is expendable rn and burnt wants to live, so that’s where im leaning for todayÂ
|TJ| he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Just now, Stick. said: disagree that this is not an e/e play, seems like the exact kinda e/e play ud do in desperate times when everyone has been pushing a burnt/mistfallen pairing - this is essentially lylo bruhhhhh if that was the case they would be aggressively againt each other. burnt herself is literally advocating for both their deaths. Â
Stick. she/her Posted March 9 Posted March 9 that might just be to look towny - again, it seems to me burnt has good money rn so has more incentive to live. so she’ll be putting in an effort to actually look villagery over just relying on a mech claim  let’s see thoÂ
Stick. she/her Posted March 9 Posted March 9 4 hours ago, |TJ| said: If Burnt is evil, then chances of e!Coco significantly increases as she voted Divergent to protect Burnt. e!Coco then signifies e!Archer because of the connections I mentioned above. Burnt/Coco/Archer is the way to go. BUT, I do think we should prioritise Coco over Burnt and I do think the ploy from Burnt is so that we concentract on Burnt/Mistfallen so that Coco (who has clearly earned enough rupees) can buy the Mask that makes someone un-exe-able. Coco  this is kinda a good point tho, the bolded especially  has anybody kept a count of how much money coco and burnt should have rn based on claims?Â
Archer he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 44 minutes ago, |TJ| said: Huh, that is indeed true... You don't believe Coco is evil? And I've been thinking Coco is evil since I've been back in the game. And ehh, I think you're a problem for another day tbh. Like I said, it would be revisiting Doc, so we will see. It would always be a thing for D3C, the first 2 cycles HAS to be Coco/Burnt and I believe that, in itself, is winning. I can look for it when I have time to re-read but I didn't see it at all. I am not talking about just votes, it's way to you guys read and analyse each other as well. Besides, I am sorry to keep repeating but Mistfallen is very clearly village. Absolutely fair. I might have missed it then, whom did you scan in N2? I feel like we both vocally read each other as village when you were alive, but I respect that the cross reads are what counts. I'm tempted to offer that we do Burnt, Coco, (my preference for the remaining elim), but I don't know who the third person is yet. Probably Doc. Scanned (blocked) TwinStorm N2 and nothing happened. 4 minutes ago, Stick. said: this is kinda a good point tho, the bolded especially  has anybody kept a count of how much money coco and burnt should have rn based on claims? Coco had -5 for Bremen L1, and claimed no mask L2, so they're certainly at 50+. Burnt could be at 50 even minus 20 for Scents. @Burnt Spaghetti what else did Scents tell you L2?Â
Stick. she/her Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Let’s try coco bc tj argument makes a lot of sense the more I think abt it 1
Archer he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 (edited) Coloured vote counts: Highlighted: TUM, Ashbringer, Wahr / Greened: Drake, Wonko / Purple: Archer, Araris, Divergent, TJ. (And Stick! Forgot them and edited in the change of colour) L1 Day 2 Quote (5) Wahrheit: Araris, Mistfallen, Coco, TJ, Divergent, (2) Hoid Slayer: Archer, Doc12, (2) Archer: Wonko, Hoid Slayer, (2) Mistfallen: Wahrheit, TUM, (1) Coder/Drake: Stick, Last three (latest to earliest): Doc: Wahr to HS, Archer: Hael to HS, Coder/Drake: HS to nobody L1 Day 3 Quote (3) TUM: Archer, Mistfallen, coco, (3) Haelbarde: Divergent, Stick, Hoid Slayer, (1) Doc: Wonko, (1) coco: Araris, (1) Divergent: TJ, (1) TJ: Doc, Last four: HS to Hael, Doc to TJ, TJ to Divergent, Coco to TUM. Previously: Spoiler (2) Haelbarde: Divergent, Stick, (2) TUM: Archer, Mistfallen, (1) Doc: Wonko, (1) coco: Araris,  L2 D1: Quote (5) Divergent: Araris, Haelbarde, TUM, coco, Archer, (4) Burnt:  Divergent, Doc, Wonko, Ashbringer, (2) Mistfallen: Warheit, Stick, (1) TJ: Burnt, (1) Stick: Mistfallen,  Last few: Ash: TJ to Burnt, Archer: Burnt to Divergent, Wonko: Stick to Burnt. Was previously: Spoiler (4) Divergent: Araris, Haelbarde, TUM, coco, (3) Burnt: Archer, Divergent, Doc, (2) Stick: Mistfallen, Wonko, (2) Mistfallen: Warheit, Stick, (2) TJ: Burnt, Ashbringer,  L2 D2: Quote (4) TJ: Drake, Ashbringer, Archer, coco, (3) coco:  TJ, Araris, Mistfallen, (2) Araris:   Wahrheit, Doc (1) Mistfallen: Stick, Last few: Coco: Araris to TJ, Archer: Araris to TJ, Mistfallen: Coco. Was previously: Spoiler (3) coco:  TJ, Araris, Mistfallen, (3) Araris: Archer, coco, Wahrheit, (2) TJ: Drake, Ashbringer, (1) Mistfallen: Stick, (1) Burnt: Doc,  L2 D3: Quote (3) Stick: coco, Doc, Burnt, (3) coco: Wahrheit, Mistfallen, Ashbringer, (1) Mistfallen: Stick, Pre-vote manip (Archer deleted Araris and Archer's votes): (5) Stick: Araris, coco, Doc, Burnt, Archer, (3) coco: Wahrheit, Mistfallen, Ashbringer, (1) Mistfallen: Stick, Last few: Archer: Twinstorm to Stick, Burnt: Stick, Doc: Coco to Stick, Ash: Archer to Coco. Was previously: Spoiler (3) Stick: Araris, coco, Burnt (3) coco: Wahrheit, Mistfallen, Doc (1) Mistfallen: Stick, (1) Twinstorm: Archer (1) Archer: Ashbringer   Edited March 9 by Archer Coloured Stick's name too
Divergent He/Him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Hmmm, so we basically have 3 to 4 elims within 6 people (Coco, Mistfallen, Burnt, Doc, Hael, TwinStorm). We're down 2 loops, but we also have good odds currently at winning the third loop Coco I said it in the dead doc, but I re-evaluated after I died and one of the people I found to be very suspicious was Coco, who had been part of 3/3 misexes (now at most likely 5/5), and that it felt like it was odd that she wasn't really getting any heat on her at the time unlike everyone who had been part of those exes, which made it seem like she was being covered for by teammates. I also thought it odd that on Night 1 B, she said she had a surprised reaction to how big the train got when she returned after rollover, which felt odd because she had been making posts close to the end of that phase and so, she had already witnessed that happen (she was the 4th vote too). There's also her association with Archer, which TJ has already elaborated on. Another point I would like to add to that was how they seemed to gang up on Araris early Day 2 B with Archer expressing suspicion on Araris, but not actually voting for him and then Coco jumping on that (despite having just voted with him the previous day). I've actually yet to read the later phases of this loop as I've been busy, so I'll hopefully get to that today
|TJ| he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Oh btw, happy birthday @Divergent! I tried to pocket-watch Burnt, and I was quite lenient with what is considered as 'discussion post' and this is what I got - Turn RP Posts Discussion Posts Purchases Rupees Cumulative D1A 2 3 ? 5 5 N1A 3 2 ? 5 10 D2A 1 5 - 6 16 N2A 4 1 - 5 21 D3A 0 3 - 3 24 N3A 4 1 - 5 29 D1B 5+ 3 20 -12 17 N1B 3 2 - 5 22 D2B 1 4 - 5 27 N2B 4 2 - 6 33 D3B 0 3 - 3 36 N3B 4 2 - 6 42  Like I said, it could be an overestimate and obviously, it's not considering PMs and stuff but yeah, slight possibility of Burnt hitting 50 this cycle. Obviously though, Coco is ahead by quite a distance. 1
Stick. she/her Posted March 9 Posted March 9 I received a pm from burnt around the end of Loop 1 in case u wanna add those to the calc Edit: under 100 wordsÂ
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Hmm. Hmm. I was kinda liking the Coco votes, then I saw who they're coming from and I don't like them anymore. I think, if the elims wanted Mist to be exed today, there would be more votes on Mist. Elims don't go straight to bussing when they have a good reason not to. That means they don't want Mist exed today (or are fine with Burnt). That means they're either happy with a Burnt/Mist 50/50 and win d3 (that means they have a third teammate who can afford Stone imo), or Mist is actually the elim here, or they're putting their energy into a Coco exe, which is my slight suspicion right now.
Divergent He/Him Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Quote D2 Burnt - Hael, Wonko, Araris, Coco, Doc Me - Wonko, Archer, Dive, Burnt, Coco N2 Mistfallen - Doc, Archer D3 Me - Hael, TJ, Mist, Araris, Stick Mistfallen - Doc Burnt - Mistfallen Archer - Wonko, Wonko, Stick, Stick, Hoid N3 Burnt - Stick Bringing this up (Postman Messages L1) since it might be relevant to building elim teams. On Day 3 A, Doc brought up that he had information on which players sent messages, which I believe only he knew that that was part of his role at that point in time since it's not stated anywhere in the mask description. If we assume Doc is village, then that could mean e!Burnt is not in a team with Hael, Coco, and Doc, since there's no reason really for her to send fake PMs to her fellow elims, since no one was aware that the Postman knew where the messages were going. That would mean her teammates are Mistfallen and TwinStorm, which also doesn't make sense either since she's in a thunderdome with Mistfallen with the Mask of Scents situation. If we assume Doc is elim, then this is irrelevant and there is a world where knowing that he has such info, that he would send messages to potential fellow elims (Coco, Burnt, Archer) and then reveal that info on D3 to make it look like e!Burnt isn't connected to Hael, Coco, and Doc. At the moment, I find this unlikely since it seemed like this was the only instance where he had mentioned it. With this info, I think that Doc and Burnt are most likely on the same faction - either both are village or both are elim. And at the moment, I'm leaning toward the possibility they're both village. I'm trying to rationalize why an e!Burnt would lie about seeing Mistfallen visit Ashbringer, and I feel like it's more of a disadvantage to do so? Mistfallen is in a much better position after D2B, so it would have been a hard sell to make up those results. And for our wincon atm, we win if we win two loops and win the final day. During the final day, we win if we execute an elim and I'm not sure I see the value of an elim putting themselves in a thunderdome and giving us a guaranteed 50% chance of winning on that final day if we reach it. A possible motivation would be that they are that confident they could seal the deal and win the game by winning this loop, but I'm finding it unlikely since they have very little room to hide now since all eyes will be on what they do and say throughout this loop.
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