DrakeMarshall he/him Posted March 4 Posted March 4 Suddenly, a snowdrift collapsed as something shifted underneath it. A hand forced open a trap door, and a masked face poked out. "Did you miss me?" Squircle asked. "Oh, nobody's here. Well, it looks like we made it outside of town." He extricating himself from the hole, and a few other townsfolk followed. He shivered. Wherever they had ended up, it was frigid. And he was pretty sure some of the tunnels had collapsed behind him, so there was no turning back. "Well, time to settle in," he said with forced cheer. "Wherever this is. Let's take a look around." He wandered off, humming a jaunty tune. 9 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: I do find it interesting how there were so many voting me and voicing suspicions, but then not getting the same thing today, its been some different players, some overlap, but yeah. I don't really know how to respond to this, i'm not sure i've been given much to respond to? /shrug I can't decide if this feels more like confused villagers voting me or elims looking for potential easy vote targets to distract from others. Its been mostly the same names in circulation pretty much every day it feels. Makes me feel like there's definitely elims who are being discussed and scrutinized. So I feel like we're on the right track? But also don't know if we got it right or got successfully distracted. Are there any combinations of players we currently think it would be extremely unlikely to not have an elim in the mix? Are these comparable for common factors? Honestly I think at least one of the people voting you today is evil, assuming you're not. While TJ has furnished different reasoning to suspect you at this point, that came after the main wave of votes on you. The main reason I saw at the time was that the train on you got outvoted at the end of yesterday. Which is a weird reason for a train to develop imo, especially when it's not all the same people voting you today as it was yesterday. If you're village that's also actually interesting because it means all the elims were voting on D3A, if my read of that vote is at all right. Makes me wonder if one or more of the side trains at least was evil, bc I still don't think Hael was evil but maybe something else was making the elims care about that vote. also it's probably the case that exactly one of Mistfallen or Stick is evil tbh There you go that's some suspect pools I guess
|TJ| he/him Posted March 4 Posted March 4 19 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: 6 hours and ~30 minutes remain in the Day! (3) Araris: Archer, coco, Wahrheit, (3) coco: Ashbringer, TJ, Araris, (1) TJ: Drake, (1) Burnt: Doc, (1) Mistfallen: Stick, (1) Archer: Araris, Ash has shifted off of Coco and is voting for me now. 1
Myst He/Him Posted March 4 Posted March 4 46 minutes ago, Stick. said: tj why would they bring it up yet they are not in any actual danger rn - and besides they will prob get a teammate to bring it up (ahem) if that's the plan also ya it tracks with the elims having probably connected the dots to wonko's stance on using postman to trigger blast = he has the postman hat, so obviously.... i am maybe tunneling but i dont think im wrong edit: a huge part of why i cant shake my e read on mistfallen is that they have basically no reaction to me constantly pushing them. i feel like a villager will push back or question it/cast doubt on my motivations or something, they are just ignoring it the way they did last game as e because they have enough ppl v reading them. historically when players dont address/minimally engage with my pushes on them they are e There’s not really much I can do you know. And it’s only one vote, as long as the majority is still voting Elims, that one vote doesn’t matter too much.
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted March 4 Posted March 4 "Oh thank goodness. Somewhere comfortable," Squircle sighed in relief. "Welcome to the Twin Island Hot Springs, Goro," a bouncer said. Squircle rushed forwards, but the Goron stopped him at the verge. "You are welcome here, for a modest entrance fee." "Entrance fee? How much?" Squircle asked, suspicious. "Fifty rupees." Squircles eyes widened. "That's robbery! I'll give you ten," he counteroffered. "There is no haggling for this pool, Goro. Pay up or leave." They argued back and forth, Squircle growing increasingly indignant, and the Gorons unyielding as stone. "Fine! I don't need your stupid overpriced hot spring!" he shook his fist at the Goron. "I'll find somewhere better, and then you lot will be sorry." Squircle walked away in a huff, shivering. 1 hour ago, Ashbringer said: Drake: E!Read: Araris, Hoid, Stick, TJ NE!Read: Mist, Archer, Coco N!Read: Doc, Burnt, Dive I don't know if that's exactly accurate but that's fair because I'm confused and haven't been saying all one thing rn I'm feeling more village on Archer, and suspect Mist more than Stick, but idk even I like that TJ is focusing more on analysis now, but a cynical part of me notes that this effort didn't get spent until I pushed to get TJ voted out over it, and it probably doesn't help that we have really different reads lol 1 hour ago, Stick. said: i am maybe tunneling but i dont think im wrong mood
|TJ| he/him Posted March 4 Posted March 4 47 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: I like that TJ is focusing more on analysis now, but a cynical part of me notes that this effort didn't get spent until I pushed to get TJ voted out over it, and it probably doesn't help that we have really different reads lol If it helps, I had not read any of the current cycle posts as I started my read back from D2A and the subsequent analysis.
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 4 Author Posted March 4 Everyone please welcome @TwinStorm who is taking over for Hoid Slayer
Myst He/Him Posted March 4 Posted March 4 Welcome Twinstorm, hopefully you catch on quickly, if not, feel free to ask questions
TwinStorm He/Him Posted March 4 Posted March 4 Hello there, gang I back Mumbo walked in, thoroughly confused. This work week had been awfully long. Now someone pls summarize everything im not reading that much lol 1
coco.pudding she/they Posted March 4 Posted March 4 2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: I find both suspicious, but I still think Archer fits the elim profile a bit better. If Archer is your stronger read, why are you moving your vote off him? That doesn’t really make sense. I think TJ is doing a good job jumping back in like this, a lot has happened and he seems to be doing a good job catching up. I like the cycle/voting analysis, that’s very interesting. However he and Araris are solidifying further (for me anyway) that they feel like elims together. Curious why yall are so sus of me? The amount of people voting/bringing me up as a possible elim just kinda skyrocketed this cycle and I feel like I still have yet to see an actual reason? Except for maybe what TJ was saying about my agreeing with people a lot (which is valid I guess but I do think I’m both not doing it that much and elaborating on why and adding to the points other are making) So if that’s your main issue, fine, I’m just curious what people are suddenly seeing that’s making me go from neutral or village read to strong elim read. 6 minutes ago, TwinStorm said: Hello there, gang I back Mumbo walked in, thoroughly confused. This work week had been awfully long. Now someone pls summarize everything im not reading that much lol Hey, welcome! Yeah you’ve missed a lot and I do not have time to summarize right now, but I wish you much luck in trying to catch up! 1
|TJ| he/him Posted March 4 Posted March 4 I'm probably heading off to sleep in ~45 mins, let me know if there is greater inclination to exe Burnt. I think I'm almost at the same level of suspicion between Burnt and coco.
Myst He/Him Posted March 4 Posted March 4 Kieran rubbed his eyes, so many accusations, he didn’t know for sure who was at fault for these past few days, but it didn’t help when everyone kept blaming each other. Looking in the direction of the city, he mumbled, “Maybe it’ll be better this time” the arguing voices hit his ears, “though with what’s been happening so far, I doubt it” ——- Honestly Twin, I don’t think we can… 1
TwinStorm He/Him Posted March 4 Posted March 4 1 minute ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: Kieran rubbed his eyes, so many accusations, he didn’t know for sure who was at fault for these past few days, but it didn’t help when everyone kept blaming each other. Looking in the direction of the city, he mumbled, “Maybe it’ll be better this time” the arguing voices hit his ears, “though with what’s been happening so far, I doubt it” ——- Honestly Twin, I don’t think we can… okay, who should I vote for? ill do some reading tonight, tho prolly just skim till I hit big posts
Myst He/Him Posted March 4 Posted March 4 I’m not voting for anyone right now, but so far probably Araris. I’m not completely sure on that. Which is why I’m not voting. Plus it makes people over-extend. But for now I’d say vote on Vibes until you have something better
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 4 Posted March 4 37 minutes ago, coco.pudding said: If Archer is your stronger read, why are you moving your vote off him? That doesn’t really make sense. I think TJ is doing a good job jumping back in like this, a lot has happened and he seems to be doing a good job catching up. I like the cycle/voting analysis, that’s very interesting. However he and Araris are solidifying further (for me anyway) that they feel like elims together. Curious why yall are so sus of me? The amount of people voting/bringing me up as a possible elim just kinda skyrocketed this cycle and I feel like I still have yet to see an actual reason? Except for maybe what TJ was saying about my agreeing with people a lot (which is valid I guess but I do think I’m both not doing it that much and elaborating on why and adding to the points other are making) So if that’s your main issue, fine, I’m just curious what people are suddenly seeing that’s making me go from neutral or village read to strong elim read. Hey, welcome! Yeah you’ve missed a lot and I do not have time to summarize right now, but I wish you much luck in trying to catch up! Well, I think you and Archer could be on a team together, and I find your voting patterns suspicious. Nobody else seems to find Archer suspicious, so the odds of that exe going through are low. I believe I have the most votes, so between me getting exed and a slightly weaker one of my elim reads getting exed, the latter is clearly preferable. Also, at this point I’m never getting NK’d, so I’ll go ahead and mention that I have the Blast Mask. If y’all want to kill me, just target me with something (tonight or N3). If Wonko hadn’t died I was gonna suggest that everyone PM me except the cleared villagers, since that would have locked in the cycle as a win for us, but I didn’t think of the plan until D2. And it’s not really a plan that can work once we’ve lost 2 loops.
Myst He/Him Posted March 4 Posted March 4 2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Well, I think you and Archer could be on a team together, and I find your voting patterns suspicious. Nobody else seems to find Archer suspicious, so the odds of that exe going through are low. I believe I have the most votes, so between me getting exed and a slightly weaker one of my elim reads getting exed, the latter is clearly preferable. Also, at this point I’m never getting NK’d, so I’ll go ahead and mention that I have the Blast Mask. If y’all want to kill me, just target me with something (tonight or N3). If Wonko hadn’t died I was gonna suggest that everyone PM me except the cleared villagers, since that would have locked in the cycle as a win for us, but I didn’t think of the plan until D2. And it’s not really a plan that can work once we’ve lost 2 loops. Only you and Wonko would have died if we all PMed you. Yeah, saying this does cut off any chance of it working, unless someone counterclaims. Though, I will say, I don’t see how saying you have the blast mask helps. Now that you’ve said you have it, it’s the same as if we found out by you dying, it’s not relevant either way. Unless someone counterclaims.
Ashbringer he/him Posted March 4 Posted March 4 42 minutes ago, coco.pudding said: Curious why yall are so sus of me? The amount of people voting/bringing me up as a possible elim just kinda skyrocketed this cycle and I feel like I still have yet to see an actual reason? Except for maybe what TJ was saying about my agreeing with people a lot (which is valid I guess but I do think I’m both not doing it that much and elaborating on why and adding to the points other are making) So if that’s your main issue, fine, I’m just curious what people are suddenly seeing that’s making me go from neutral or village read to strong elim read. I moved my vote - for now - but IMO you seem fairly opportunistic. Someone votes, you vote pretty quick in succession, or you have a list of reads that you hop between without really sticking to one, or to your strongest one. Which, as you note, is something others (Araris and Archer, for ones) are also guilty of. Part of it is the lateness of the turn, less time to propose new Exe candidates vs push the ones you actually think you can get exed. What's your opinion on TJ and Archer? 3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Nobody else seems to find Archer suspicious, so the odds of that exe going through are low. Hi
Myst He/Him Posted March 4 Posted March 4 1 minute ago, Ashbringer said: I moved my vote - for now - but IMO you seem fairly opportunistic. Someone votes, you vote pretty quick in succession, or you have a list of reads that you hop between without really sticking to one, or to your strongest one. Which, as you note, is something others (Araris and Archer, for ones) are also guilty of. Part of it is the lateness of the turn, less time to propose new Exe candidates vs push the ones you actually think you can get exed. What's your opinion on TJ and Archer? Hi Another heads up that coco would win a tie. Coco wouldn’t die. Because Araris has the blast mask, even if Coco has a red one, Coco has earned more rupees. Before it was a maybe because Araris might have Bunny, but if he has Blast, then Coco would win the tie. However, you do make some good points. If Araris is telling the truth about Blast, I feel like that indicates Village, and Coco is a fair option right now. So Coco.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 4 Posted March 4 32 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: Though, I will say, I don’t see how saying you have the blast mask helps. Now that you’ve said you have it, it’s the same as if we found out by you dying, it’s not relevant either way. Unless someone counterclaims. It helps by letting us exe someone else if the consensus is that I should die, since someone can kill me during the night turn. Also, my understanding was the PMs targeted both the postman and the recipient. I can’t recall where Aman clarified but whatever. It’s moot at this point anyway.
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 5 Author Posted March 5 22 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Also, my understanding was the PMs targeted both the postman and the recipient. I can’t recall where Aman clarified but whatever. It’s moot at this point anyway. If you send a PM, you target the Postman, who then targets all the players who receive PMs. Just like the real postal service!
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 5 Posted March 5 1 minute ago, Amanuensis said: If you send a PM, you target the Postman, who then targets all the players who receive PMs. Just like the real postal service! Ah. So the only way to mass-explode would be for a player to have both at the same time. Also, I’m realizing that there are only 2 abilities that can target me (or 3 if someone splurged on Keaton Mask). And those abilities both have useful applications for the village (a roleblock and a track).
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 5 Author Posted March 5 (edited) 2 hours and ~30 remains in the Day to vote, earn Rupees, or submit actions. (3) Araris: Archer, coco, Wahrheit, (3) coco: TJ, Araris, Mistfallen, (2) TJ: Drake, Ashbringer, (1) Burnt: Doc, (1) Mistfallen: Stick, (2/12) OP Blast Mask: TUM, Mistfallen, Edited March 5 by Amanuensis
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 5 Posted March 5 4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: 2 hours and ~30 remains in the Day to vote, earn Rupees, or submit actions. (3) Araris: Archer, coco, Wahrheit, (3) coco: TJ, Araris, Mistfallen, (2) TJ: Drake, Ashbringer, (1) Burnt: Doc, (1) Mistfallen: Stick, (1) Archer: Araris, (2/12) OP Blast Mask: TUM, Mistfallen, There are 2 Arentas now! Everyone owes double the rent!
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 5 Author Posted March 5 (edited) What the heck who keeps editing my vote counts to be wrong smh Is this one accurate or not (3) coco: TJ, Araris, Mistfallen, (3) Araris: Archer, coco, Wahrheit, (2) TJ: Drake, Ashbringer, (1) Mistfallen: Stick, (1) Burnt: Doc, Edited March 5 by Amanuensis
Doc12 Posted March 5 Posted March 5 19 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: Can you explain your reasoning for Burnt? I think the lack of flips means that just exeing the counter-train isn't a great strategy, at least without further reasoning. I suppose it was a form of reaction testing - I think in my mind the reasoning was if e!Burnt, then Coco and Archer come under suspicion for getting Dive exed. In this case, Coco was willing to vote Burnt, but Archer was more interested in Araris or TJ. There was also a case for v!Burnt, where I would expect elims to want to vote on expecting an easy misexe. So that's why I wanted to restart the train. 5 hours ago, |TJ| said: (a) If Divergent is evil and Burnt is village -> Burnt was leading 4-2 and the votes from TUM and Coco make it 4-4. ANY vote from this point onwards should be seen as an attempt to protect Divergent. But the only votes we see are - Ash to vote from me, Wonko votes Burnt (again, village) and Archer to vote ON Divergent. So where is the effort to protect Divergent then? This makes case (a) quite unviable. (b) If Divergent is village and Burnt is evil -> Burnt leading 4-2, so all votes after this point is to protect Burnt. TUM is village but Coco's vote would then be seen as a teammate's vote. Archer's last minute change would also mean teammates vote. The question then arises - why was Archer parked on Burnt for so long? I guess the team could be Burnt, Coco, Archer + 1 but hmmmm need to think about it. Obviously, case (b) is a lot more viable than case (a) I'm thinking if it could be v/v, since vote changes being village-motivated could also mean a v/v train. Let's see -> Village reads: TUM, Araris, Wahr, Ash, Hael, Doc, Drake, Mist If we are assuming the v/v case, then Burnt is added to the above list, which leaves me with Coco, Stick, Archer and Hoid Slayer... That is not a good list imo. It's likely someone on my village reads is not village and the first to drop out of it would be Araris but it still does not make a good 5-person pool. This is my likelihood tier -> Case (b) > Both Evil >= Both village > Case (a) Case (b) and Both Evil required e!Burnt. Further, Case (b) also required e!Coco. Both Evil would absolve Coco, but the question is 'where is the attempt to save both?'. There was a moment where I was on 2 votes and would have been a viable counter to both of them so what happened? If Both Village, then my first vote would be on Coco and then leads to me revaluating my village reads. All the roads lead to Burnt and most of the logical roads lead to Coco, for me. Hi TJ, when you get going, you get going I really like this analysis, I think you articulated way better why Burnt would be an interesting exe. -- I was going to put a vote on Araris since I actually liked TJ a lot more since they came in this round, but then Araris claimed Blast Mask, saying that if we wanted him dead we could target him at night. The problem is I feel this only hurts the village and takes away a good elim catching tool. Elims aren't going to target you now that you've claimed that, and village Scents/Bremen would be killing themselves if they targeted you. So we now have a situation where we can only either believe you and no one can target you the rest of the loop, or exe you and possibly lose the blast mask, which, again, has lost all its threat. Burnt Araris. 19 hours ago, Ashbringer said: Coliver did not like the cold. They'd found the tracks of the main group leading toward the Goron village and followed them here, though Tersde was a bit worried that it was so easy to keep track of the group. Coliver wasn't too sure that mattered. Things were different this time, and not just by her own actions. And there were enough stories of time in Termina that she didn't think she was the only one who could remember the prior three days. The being in Marton certainly seemed to react to it. Much more than the imminent danger, in fact. As if it didn't think it was relevant that the night would be filled with flame over the fact that she knew about it. Coliver was back to thinking of him as an it. Strange. But that laugh... it wasn't Zora. Or anything she'd heard on Termina. In some ways it was a bit comforting, knowing she was right, that it couldn't be Marton. Mostly it was wrong. Like the warmth of a burning childhood home. The Goron seemed welcoming enough of refugees, at least. They'd had their own form of strife. There were more and more faces she vaguely remembered from the forests, though she found herself looking for... "Marton's not here," Makazi said. That was at least right. Whatever it was, it was pretty conspicuous with that sword. Or stance. Or... something. But Coliver spotted someone else. Their eyes had glanced over her, looking for something, but she knew that face. "Thistle! Hello!" she said, leaving Makazi and the others to join her. "And you're... Amora? Right? Please tell me you reme... I think we met before." @Doc12 @coco.pudding 22 hours ago, coco.pudding said: Amora helps people get settled in, finding food and blankets, just as she had done the last time. As she is assisting a small family get settled in to finally sleep, she sees Thistle running by in distress, and follows. “Thistle! Hey! What’s wrong?” Thistle stumbled at the interruptions, flashing a quick, worried smile at Amora and... Collie? She knew that Zora, but the name... Stars. "Hello!" They smiled, brightly, "I, yes, I remember you, you were helping me, back at... the forest. I... didn't see you after, at the temple. Have you been alright?" Then, turning to Amora, "It's Zymni... she's left my side again, and I'm so worried I left her behind somehow. It's so bright out here, on the mountain, she must be so uncomfortable, but I've checked as many of the dark rooms as I'm allowed in! I mean, she's very good at hiding and getting into dark places she shouldn't be, but... I'm worried... she's... Well, she's not a child, but she still doesn't know a lot about the world... Have you seen her?" ---- Everytime I want to RP, I think how is Thistle doing? And the answer is always bad. 3
coco.pudding she/they Posted March 5 Posted March 5 1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said: Well, I think you and Archer could be on a team together, and I find your voting patterns suspicious. Nobody else seems to find Archer suspicious, so the odds of that exe going through are low. I believe I have the most votes, so between me getting exed and a slightly weaker one of my elim reads getting exed, the latter is clearly preferable. Eh, I suppose that’s fair. I will say I am kind of suspicious of Archer, I feel like I’ve been reading him as village but I also really can’t get a good read on him. I’d be willing to join an Archer train with you D3 if I won’t get exed (and yeah I know that might make you more suspicious of me, but there’s really not much I can do about that). Are you assuming we’re on a team because he keeps hard village reading me? Because I don’t think I’ve said much in actual favor of him, it’s pretty one-sided. 1 hour ago, Ashbringer said: What's your opinion on TJ and Archer? TJ I feel like I have a slightly better read on now, I think there’s a decent chance he and Araris are elims together as I said earlier, but he is also adding some useful points to the conversation so maybe he’s not. Idk, I’d be willing to exe him. Archer I’ve been mildly suspicious of for most of the game, I can’t get a great read on him, I mainly get village but there’s some things that also throw that off a bit. ——————— 20 minutes ago, Doc12 said: Thistle stumbled at the interruptions, flashing a quick, worried smile at Amora and... Collie? She knew that Zora, but the name... Stars. "Hello!" They smiled, brightly, "I, yes, I remember you, you were helping me, back at... the forest. I... didn't see you after, at the temple. Have you been alright?" Then, turning to Amora, "It's Zymni... she's left my side again, and I'm so worried I left her behind somehow. It's so bright out here, on the mountain, she must be so uncomfortable, but I've checked as many of the dark rooms as I'm allowed in! I mean, she's very good at hiding and getting into dark places she shouldn't be, but... I'm worried... she's... Well, she's not a child, but she still doesn't know a lot about the world... Have you seen her?" Amora thinks for a moment, remembering the odd shadow following Thistle. “I can’t say I have seen her, not since the last time we spoke. But I’m sure she’s here somewhere, I’ll help you look, okay? Where haven’t you checked yet? Maybe I can help you get in somewhere you haven’t been yet, we can start there. And then we can search everywhere else. I’m sure she’ll turn up.” 1
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