Long Game 110? [Sign Ups]: Termina Abandoned (A Majora's Mask Mafia Adventure)

[Through the living Wahr He/Him]

With the Confirmation That Araris had the Mask, I think I can seem that that seems more village. I originally assumed it was a false claim to not get exed, but I dont See an Elim going for the Mask and then revealing that they did it, so I will Vote another Susppect of mine, Coco

 

[Archer he/him]

I'm at the point in the game where MF, Coco, Burnt, and Stick all seem both suspicious and above reproach.

6 hours ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Alright. So nice job TUM, but at this point, I don’t think the Blast mask will trigger this loop

About that..... 

Ashbringer, is the dead doc doing rupee tracking? It'd be very funny to exe TUM again just to get him to 50. 

What's everyone's elim team guesses? Can include dead or living players. 

Wahr, what's the math on whether they need to NK N3 if there's no Blast Mask explosion? 

[Through the living Wahr He/Him]

If we killed one of them they would need 5 or more dead Villagers to win the loop, so all three NKs need to happen. If we havent we have the same Math as in L1

Edited March 6 by Wahrheitswächter

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

3 hours ago, Archer said:

I'm at the point in the game where MF, Coco, Burnt, and Stick all seem both suspicious and above reproach.

About that..... 

Ashbringer, is the dead doc doing rupee tracking? It'd be very funny to exe TUM again just to get him to 50. 

What's everyone's elim team guesses? Can include dead or living players. 

Wahr, what's the math on whether they need to NK N3 if there's no Blast Mask explosion? 

I feel like that would be less helpful? I'm above thirty and I think I can hit forty by EoL. Exing for rupees is a consideration, but I still think we should be going after at least possible suspects.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Wahrheitswächter said:

If we killed one of them they would need 5 or more dead Villagers to win the loop, so all three NKs need to happen. If we havent we have the same Math as in L1

That’s only sort of true. There’s a bit of uncertainty with the Blast Mask if the elims don’t have both hats with a targeted action.

I think we should proceed today as if one of the dead players is elim (otherwise we’d need to exe an elim today and block the NK tonight to win the loop). It makes the most sense to pick TJ/Divergent as the elim, since I have a bit of a hard time believing that the elims NK’d themselves so far this loop. It’s not impossible, but we probably don’t need to worry about it unless we end up winning the loop.

[Ashbringer he/him]

To expand the Voices a little bit:

Divergent suspects Coco, Archer, TJ, and Burnt

Wonko suspects Coco, TJ, and Burnt, somewhat Archer (allegedly is "floppy") and somewhat Stick but doesn't think Stick-Burnt are e-e.

TJ is... adamant about a Coco-Archer e-e team. Agreed with Dive's Elim picks (minus himself) but focuses much more on those two than Burnt or Stick.

Drake hasn't been as explicit but more in pieces - he thinks e!Archer is reasonable with v!TJ but doesn't necessarily think TJ is V, thinks that Archer/TJ/Coco is a fairly reasonable trio but hasn't purported a fourth, and also wants to see if Archer explodes himself on Araris' explody porch. Hasn't really given explicit Elim reads outside of that (in the dead doc) but he was pretty read-happy while alive.

Ash is interested in the Archer-Coco-TJ core, and... honestly doesn't suspect Burnt as much as the dead do. But Archer,Burnt,Coco,TJ is the main elim team prediction of 2-3 of the 4 dead and even TJ agrees with the first three. I'll probably hunt for some reads aside from that.

 

If we assume we've exed only one Elim, it's probably TJ, with Dive->Drake->Wonko in ascending V order. TJ's been somewhat villagey in the dead doc but in ways that are kind of easy to fake (or are explained by being legitimately behind, which is more NAI).

@Archer, why not go for Araris last night?

[Archer he/him]

53 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

@Archer, why not go for Araris last night?

I wanted to see if I could block the NK. 

The dead really like Stick huh

I have good feelings about Burnt, MF, Coco, and Doc. Hang on, easy out, TwinStorm

[Ashbringer he/him]

26 minutes ago, Archer said:

I wanted to see if I could block the NK. 

The dead really like Stick huh

I have good feelings about Burnt, MF, Coco, and Doc. Hang on, easy out, TwinStorm

Stick gets suspected a decent amount, especially if V!Burnt. Hoid/TwinStorm have been pretty black-box-y.

... and didn't you just roleblock TwinStorm?

[coco.pudding she/they]

Dang the dead really hate me sorry for…uh…existing? Being hateable? Idk man I still don’t really understand where all the coco hate is coming from

45 minutes ago, Archer said:

I wanted to see if I could block the NK.

So you chose TwinStorm? Why? There’s so many others that are way more suspicious/likely to be elim rn

Also, didn’t you say you chose them mostly to just not hit the Scents owner? So which is it, block the NK or just avoid blocking Scents?

12 hours ago, Wahrheitswächter said:

With the Confirmation That Araris had the Mask,

One thing I will note, this is not actually confirmed. The only thing confirmed is that TUM did not have it. It’s highly likely that Araris is telling the truth, but not fully confirmed.

15 hours ago, The Unknown Medallion said:

Now that we're out of the night, I'm okay saying that I do not have the Blast Mask as I'm sure most people were fairly confident. I just wanted to sow a little bit of uncertainty plus see how Araris reacted. Didn't get much though tbh

I rather liked that, it was an interesting play

17 hours ago, Archer said:

Coco, Stick, Hael, Doc, Burnt, Mistfallen, and TwinStorm,

Curious what this list is meant to be? If you’re listing everyone alive right now excluding confirmed villagers, you didn’t include yourself and Araris. Why? Are you just assuming those are the people that will die? Or what’s going on there?

[Myst He/Him]

I haven’t heard from him for a bit, @Haelbarde whats your reads?

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

To expand the Voices a little bit:

Divergent suspects Coco, Archer, TJ, and Burnt

Wonko suspects Coco, TJ, and Burnt, somewhat Archer (allegedly is "floppy") and somewhat Stick but doesn't think Stick-Burnt are e-e.

TJ is... adamant about a Coco-Archer e-e team. Agreed with Dive's Elim picks (minus himself) but focuses much more on those two than Burnt or Stick.

Drake hasn't been as explicit but more in pieces - he thinks e!Archer is reasonable with v!TJ but doesn't necessarily think TJ is V, thinks that Archer/TJ/Coco is a fairly reasonable trio but hasn't purported a fourth, and also wants to see if Archer explodes himself on Araris' explody porch. Hasn't really given explicit Elim reads outside of that (in the dead doc) but he was pretty read-happy while alive.

Ash is interested in the Archer-Coco-TJ core, and... honestly doesn't suspect Burnt as much as the dead do. But Archer,Burnt,Coco,TJ is the main elim team prediction of 2-3 of the 4 dead and even TJ agrees with the first three. I'll probably hunt for some reads aside from that.

 

If we assume we've exed only one Elim, it's probably TJ, with Dive->Drake->Wonko in ascending V order. TJ's been somewhat villagey in the dead doc but in ways that are kind of easy to fake (or are explained by being legitimately behind, which is more NAI).

@Archer, why not go for Araris last night?

Also, my thoughts for now, I can agree that someone in the dead doc is Elim, at least one, if not two. I don’t like the shift that happened with Dive and TJ. Obviously I’d prefer to see the change myself, but unless yall decide I’m suspicious again that’s not happening.

Anyways, if anything, there should be a lot more reads and such in the dead doc. Since you’re a confirmed village, they can theorize about this loop without giving the Elims information (I asked About this and the dead Elims can’t talk in the Elim doc while dead) so literally they should be hard-focusing on solving because they can talk about rupees, who has what mask, and all that freely.

So I do find the change in Dive and TJ’a behavior suspicious. With your list of order, I personally think Dive is more Elim than TJ right now(when he has the time and was here, TJ was really active and cooperative)

So far though, the votes are across Stick, Coco, and Twin. Twin Im not sure about as I’ve only seen him do rp right now, but I also know he’s probably getting used to what’s happening, but he’s not asking questions, unlike Drake, which makes me trust Drake more.

Coco has been acting very much like the people she’s been voting, and I would be fine with voting her, but I am slightly worried how I made a similar read on Wahr, and that turned out to be wrong, so I’m not sure what to do here.

Stick I don’t want to vote without a defense from her. It’s been almost a day since rollover, and she hasn’t said anything yet. I don’t want to vote her until she says something, as that could be due to irl reasons, and I don’t want to vote her if that’s what’s happening.

[Archer he/him]

22 minutes ago, coco.pudding said:

you didn’t include yourself and Araris. Why? Are you just assuming those are the people that will die?

Yes, via glorious explosion 

22 minutes ago, coco.pudding said:

So you chose TwinStorm? Why? There’s so many others that are way more suspicious/likely to be elim rn

Also, didn’t you say you chose them mostly to just not hit the Scents owner? So which is it, block the NK or just avoid blocking Scents?

I shopped at the budget mask store, so my mask being successful is indistinguishable from the NK not being submitted at all. Whereas scratch and sniff can be almost certain, when they have a positive result. It's most important to get a read from that. 

The elims aren't going to have a heavily suspected teammate submit the NK. There's also some meta about players without masks have a free action, so they're more likely to submit the NK, although I don't know how many people that affects. 

TwinStorm not submitting the NK is usefulish info, but it doesn't mean they're not evil. 

5 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

haven’t heard from him for a bit, @Haelbarde whats your reads

Forgot he existed lol

[coco.pudding she/they]

6 minutes ago, Archer said:

Yes, via glorious explosion

Right so I’m just dumb then and forgot that’s the plan. Have fun exploding! (ps dunno why but that’s giving “glorious purpose” a little bit)

We can also assume two more of those people (or one of those and one confirmed villager) will be dead by the end of the loop as well. Which will narrow it down further.

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

I shopped at the budget mask store, so my mask being successful is indistinguishable from the NK not being submitted at all. Whereas scratch and sniff can be almost certain, when they have a positive result. It's most important to get a read from that. 

The elims aren't going to have a heavily suspected teammate submit the NK. There's also some meta about players without masks have a free action, so they're more likely to submit the NK, although I don't know how many people that affects. 

TwinStorm not submitting the NK is usefulish info, but it doesn't mean they're not evil.

Ah yeah that does make sense then

I guess potentially that means I did successfully block a NK last loop…I kinda doubt it since they only needed the one for parity but certainly a possibility.  

————————

Oh right, rp exists too!

Amora glances at the others for a moment, confused by what has occurred in the last several minutes. She contemplates the most reasonable course of action. They have to stop Sakon somehow, and probably try to get to the temple before he can. Following the newly transformed Ap (how did that happen, anyway? No time to try to figure that out, really) seems like the best thing to do at the moment.

With that considered, she takes off down the path after Ap, calling out for the others to follow as well.

[Myst He/Him]

Kieran was sitting on the side of the cliff, legs dangling over the egde. He wasn’t sure what to do. Without Ap, Sakon’s expedition to the temple was almost sure to fail. “I really hope that the others were mistaken, that they didn’t see what they thought they did” he paused, “because otherwise we’re screwed”

”Honestly though, it might be better to get to the temple without Sakon, after all, we don’t have Ap, so it might be better to just go ourselves”

Kieran got up to go find the others

[Doc12]

Huh, quiet day today. That's nice that I don't have 3 pages to catch up on  

I really want to just exe Archer, because their vote hopping is so inconsistent. But if they do blow Araris up tonight, that's a net win? 

Well if not Archer, then coco.  these are the two that's been deciding the exes this loop so it makes sense to try exeing one of them. 

I still can't read Archer. Volunteering to blow themselves up, very fun, and we've agreed that more dead does help village. It's just how eager they've been to jump around, even voting for Twinstorm when confronted with resistance about Stick. Blowing themselves up could be an attempt to get an elim in the deadpool if there isn't one already or to throw the loop while seeming heroically village. 

My current thoughts are Archer/Coco, Burnt, one of Hael/Twinstorm as we really have not read them much, and maybe Stick and one of TJ/Dive. 

Edited March 6 by Doc12

[Myst He/Him]

40 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

Huh, quiet day today. That's nice that I don't have 3 pages to catch up on  

I really want to just exe Archer, because their vote hopping is so inconsistent. But if they do blow Araris up tonight, that's a net win? 

Well if not Archer, then coco.  these are the two that's been deciding the exes this loop so it makes sense to try exeing one of them. 

I still can't read Archer. Volunteering to blow themselves up, very fun, and we've agreed that more dead does help village. It's just how eager they've been to jump around, even voting for Twinstorm when confronted with resistance about Stick. Blowing themselves up could be an attempt to get an elim in the deadpool if there isn't one already or to throw the loop while seeming heroically village. 

My current thoughts are Archer/Coco, Burnt, one of Hael/Twinstorm as we really have not read them much, and maybe Stick and one of TJ/Dive. 

I saved myself the hassle of worrying about that by deciding Archer was village early, and going off of that. In the case he is Elim, it won’t be too bad as there’s still 3 other Elims to find.

But yeah. It’s surprisingly quiet so far, especially considering it’s the last lynch we have till next loop.

I’m not sure what it means yet though, I’d have to see what the results of the loop are to know

[Archer he/him]

2 hours ago, coco.pudding said:

I guess potentially that means I did successfully block a NK last loop

You can't say that and not spill the tea! 

46 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

My current thoughts are Archer/Coco, Burnt, one of Hael/Twinstorm as we really have not read them much, and maybe Stick and one of TJ/Dive. 

Soooo everyone but Araris? 

Quote

I still can't read Archer. Volunteering to blow themselves up, very fun, and we've agreed that more dead does help village. It's just how eager they've been to jump around, even voting for Twinstorm when confronted with resistance about Stick. Blowing themselves up could be an attempt to get an elim in the deadpool if there isn't one already or to throw the loop while seeming heroically village.

When TUM offered to die, we all politely obliged. I've offered twice and no one's supported it.

I'm slightly worried about diluting the elim suspects in the dead pool, but winning the loop trumps everything. Better to over hedge than have no room for error and too many choices in the living pool. 

3 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

But yeah. It’s surprisingly quiet so far, especially considering it’s the last lynch we have till next loop.

I'm interested in you retracting your vote on Stick, and being hesitant to apply it in the first place. Your aggressive playstyle has been dialled down of late. 

There's a vacuum right now. Araris and I were pulled as options, so people are voting me by proxy, or waiting to see what materializes. 

I'll repeat that winning the loop trumps everything. But we clearly aren't confident enough in any suspect to throw away other considerations. I feel good enough about our 50 rupee holders that I don't think it's majority elim. So I'd rather play the odds with invincibility mask by keeping them all intact (ignore when I said to ignore that line of thought). Therefore, TwinStorm. 

*

@Araris Valerian sorry to have to ask, but it'd be good to have on the record. Is your mask equipped? 

And for the record, I'm fully committed to targeting Araris this loop, and you can exe me if I don't. 

[Myst He/Him]

39 minutes ago, Archer said:

You can't say that and not spill the tea! 

Soooo everyone but Araris? 

When TUM offered to die, we all politely obliged. I've offered twice and no one's supported it.

I'm slightly worried about diluting the elim suspects in the dead pool, but winning the loop trumps everything. Better to over hedge than have no room for error and too many choices in the living pool. 

I'm interested in you retracting your vote on Stick, and being hesitant to apply it in the first place. Your aggressive playstyle has been dialled down of late. 

There's a vacuum right now. Araris and I were pulled as options, so people are voting me by proxy, or waiting to see what materializes. 

I'll repeat that winning the loop trumps everything. But we clearly aren't confident enough in any suspect to throw away other considerations. I feel good enough about our 50 rupee holders that I don't think it's majority elim. So I'd rather play the odds with invincibility mask by keeping them all intact (ignore when I said to ignore that line of thought). Therefore, TwinStorm. 

*

@Araris Valerian sorry to have to ask, but it'd be good to have on the record. Is your mask equipped? 

And for the record, I'm fully committed to targeting Araris this loop, and you can exe me if I don't. 

I was very clear in the sign-ups that the most likely thing to happen would be it falling off half-way though.

though, I’m gonna quickly do some school-work and then I’ll be back to hopefully do something 

Edit: or I will once someone else posts so I’m not double posting

Edited March 7 by Mistfallen Soldier

[coco.pudding she/they]

32 minutes ago, Archer said:

You can't say that and not spill the tea!

Well there was no NK N3…and I targeted you with Bremen…

It would look the same as there being no NK, as you said.

32 minutes ago, Archer said:

When TUM offered to die, we all politely obliged. I've offered twice and no one's supported it.

Yeah I think we just generally trust you less than TUM. But it’s okay, now you’ve offered to blow yourself up. So all your dreams of dying can come true!

34 minutes ago, Archer said:

Therefore, TwinStorm.

I don’t love the idea of exeing TwinStorm before they’ve had a chance to actually get into the game. They haven’t done much of anything yet and while Hoid Slayer was acting pretty weird, TwinStorm has done nothing so far except a little bit of roleplay. So I don’t feel like we have a good read on them or anything to base exeing them off of. I did think Hoid could possibly be an elim due to the way he was active without actually being active, but the fact that a pinch hitter had to come in made me revise that assessment a bit. If they get on and are active in the conversation in a way where it seems like they’re an elim, then I would absolutely be willing to exe them. 

1 hour ago, Doc12 said:

I really want to just exe Archer, because their vote hopping is so inconsistent. But if they do blow Araris up tonight, that's a net win?

Yeah, Archer’s hopping between and randomly adding/removing votes with not too much context and all that is rather odd. I think they’re definitely a person to come back to next loop, but this one it seems (probably) good for them to trigger blast.

Although that trigger could very well be an easy, mostly village-sanctioned way for them to throw the loop without casting too much suspicion on themselves (in the case that either or both of Archer and Araris are elims). I know you mentioned that could be a tact Archer is taking here, but it could really be either of them. Or both.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

53 minutes ago, Archer said:

When TUM offered to die, we all politely obliged. I've offered twice and no one's supported it.

It's my charming personality I'm sure

9 minutes ago, coco.pudding said:

Well there was no NK N3…and I targeted you with Bremen…

It would look the same as there being no NK, as you said.

Yeah I think we just generally trust you less than TUM. But it’s okay, now you’ve offered to blow yourself up. So all your dreams of dying can come true!

I don’t love the idea of exeing TwinStorm before they’ve had a chance to actually get into the game. They haven’t done much of anything yet and while Hoid Slayer was acting pretty weird, TwinStorm has done nothing so far except a little bit of roleplay. So I don’t feel like we have a good read on them or anything to base exeing them off of. I did think Hoid could possibly be an elim due to the way he was active without actually being active, but the fact that a pinch hitter had to come in made me revise that assessment a bit. If they get on and are active in the conversation in a way where it seems like they’re an elim, then I would absolutely be willing to exe them. 

Yeah, Archer’s hopping between and randomly adding/removing votes with not too much context and all that is rather odd. I think they’re definitely a person to come back to next loop, but this one it seems (probably) good for them to trigger blast.

Although that trigger could very well be an easy, mostly village-sanctioned way for them to throw the loop without casting too much suspicion on themselves (in the case that either or both of Archer and Araris are elims). I know you mentioned that could be a tact Archer is taking here, but it could really be either of them. Or both.

I don't think the elims throw the loop here, so I doubt an exploded Archer is e unless the elims already lost, making two of Dive/TJ/D3 exe elim as well

[Myst He/Him]

Alright, so. We have to make sure we hit someone we think is Elim, otherwise(unless both TJ and Dive are Elim) we lose(I don’t see a reason for the Elims to NK an Elim). Which means I’m basing everything I’m about to say on that there’s only 1 Elim in the dead doc(I’m not going to bother with figuring out who yet)

So, excluding Confirmed village, we have: Araris, Coco, Stick, Hael, Doc, Burnt, Archer, Twin.

First off, I’m excluding Doc, Archer and Araris.

Doc because of my rupee/PM reasons I’ve mentioned a few times, he’s not acting like I’ve see in the three games I’ve seen him as Elim, and his analysis has been helpful.

Archer because he’s volunteered for the exe a lot, seems very active on solving. Also, I want to see what happens tonight. If Archer does target, with the black mask calculations I did earlier in the loop, that’s a lot of work extra info for us(this might sound a bit crazy, but optimally, the best scenario for going into loop 3 might be losing this loop, but Archer and Araris blowing up, as we’d be all but certain to win the next three loops)and if it doesn’t explode that’s indicative as well. Either way, I don’t want to exe archer right now.

Araris for similar reasons to Archer, I want to see that blast mask happening.

So, that leaves us with Coco, Stick, Hael, Burnt, and Twin. Assuming we haven’t already won the loop, that’s a 3/5 or possibly 4/5 chance. So literally voting randomly might result in a loop win.

Coco: I’m worried about, as I mentioned, Coco is acting in the same ways that she’s voting people for, but I’m worried here because I misread Wahr, and I don’t want to do that again.

Burnt: has been active, also going for rupees like me(I’m not sure if Burnt has been tracking like I have though) I keep switching here. I don’t think we need to exe burnt, if burnt is Elim, there’s like 2 others, and so not dealing with figuring it out is the easiest way right now.

The problem with the other three are that they are in various states of activity.

Hael seemingly disappeared, I pinged him, and he hasn’t responded. Stick has been gone, but that’s due to Irl stuff, and Twin has just been doing Rp.

Out of these three I think Twin is the most suspicious, but I’m hesitant with all three for inactivity reasons.

Out of all these, Twin and Coco are the people from each(active and not as much) I’d be willing to exe. As for deciding who I’m going to back to HoidSlayer. He was very inactive for the first part, not paying attention to rules, but winning loop 1 would’ve been a calculated risk from the Elims, and his lack of activity then suggests he wasn’t a part of that.

Coco

If I’m wrong that’s alright, Archer just has to trigger blast mask and we’re in a good position.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

@Araris Valerian sorry to have to ask, but it'd be good to have on the record. Is your mask equipped? 

And for the record, I'm fully committed to targeting Araris this loop, and you can exe me if I don't. 

Yep. I'm ready to burn. Also, sorry for my lack of contribution today. I'm feeling tired/sick and don't really have much analysis in me. I'm happy to respond to specific questions from folks. Main thing is that I'm kinda against a coco exe (which is somewhat ironic given the overwhelming opinion of the dead folks and my persistence against her this game).

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just over 24 hours remain in the Day!

• (3) coco: Wahrheit, Doc, Mistfallen, 
• (1) Archer: Ashbringer, 
• (1) TwinStorm: Archer, 

[Archer he/him]

35 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Out of all these, Twin and Coco are the people from each(active and not as much) I’d be willing to exe.

See, I'm not crazy. TS is a valid choice! 

52 minutes ago, coco.pudding said:

Well there was no NK N3…and I targeted you with Bremen…

 

Yeah, Archer’s hopping between and randomly adding/removing votes with not too much context and all that is rather odd. I think they’re definitely a person to come back to next loop, but this one it seems (probably) good for them to trigger blast..

That's good distancing, nice pull

(Side note: I think you read me as randomly hopping because you tend to focus on the reasons stated in the post where the vote is cast. My reasoning tends to come separately, but is usually internally consistent.

I do also stab vote as well to drive engagement. The key with those is they're usually temporary to get new information as efficiently as possible.)

41 minutes ago, The Unknown Medallion said:

I don't think the elims throw the loop here, so I doubt an exploded Archer is e unless the elims already lost, making two of Dive/TJ/D3 exe elim as well

The idea of me going in on purpose feels like something I'd do if an elim had been exed already. 

19 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yep. I'm ready to burn. Also, sorry for my lack of contribution today. I'm feeling tired/sick and don't really have much analysis in me. I'm happy to respond to specific questions from folks. Main thing is that I'm kinda against a coco exe (which is somewhat ironic given the overwhelming opinion of the dead folks and my persistence against her this game).

I also think they're village, but Coco is probably getting exed L3D1 if it's a loop loss, so we might as well check them now

[Myst He/Him]

3 minutes ago, Archer said:

I also think they're village, but Coco is probably getting exed L3D1 if it's a loop loss, so we might as well check them now

A very small part of me wants us to lose, because then we’d have 8 people alive, 3 of which are confirmed villages, and 3 of which are Elim.

But also we should try to win the loop

[Archer he/him]

23 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

A very small part of me wants us to lose, because then we’d have 8 people alive, 3 of which are confirmed villages, and 3 of which are Elim.

But also we should try to win the loop

You have to plan for one elim being in the deadpool, then of the living, there being three confirmed villagers, one invincible elim, and only four suspects we can actually vote for. We get to kill three of the four, but if one of them is TS or Hael, it's a pure coinflip. 

The dead pool has no invincible players, so it's within our control.