Mid-Range Game 73: SE and Taxes

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

RIP Wonko  I liked your mech analysis even if I was reluctant to credit you for it.

Alright let's see. First order of business, the lack of a murder is interesting.

Either the killers forgot, or they decided not to. Those are the only options. There's no abilities in this setup that can block a kill, and the Hunter's ability won't kick in without the Target dead.

Case 1 - The killers forgot.

I tend to think this option is the simplest, a priori. Although the last few times I assumed this I was wrong so. What do I know. 

But like. It really isn't that hard to just. Forget. Especially cuz I doubt a 10 player game has a very big elim team.

In this world, we're probably looking at a less active elim team. I'd probably rule out Striker from that team. Probably CD too. Both of them were around near phase change both in-thread and in PMs, which is moderate evidence that evil!them doesn't forget to submit a kill.

Particularly any more experienced elims on that team would probably need to be a bit checked out around rollover for the team to coast by with no kill submitted. If we suppose an experienced elim is in fact on the team, it leaves <Kas, TJ>.

Case 2 - The killers didn't kill on purpose.

The maths sorta check out wrt skipping a kill working for the elims PtV. It's 2v8->2v6->2v4->2v2->2v0 without skip, or 2v8->2v7->2v5->2v3->2v1 with skip. Assuming 2 elims. In either case, their optimal PtV is the same number of steps. The skip does make the penultimate step 2v3 instead of 2v2 -- I suppose whether this is desirable or not is a matter of preference. The 2v2 means you'd have a 50/50 shot at winning there even if your team were outed, the 2v3 means you avoid that possibility of RNG deciding the outcome of the game which is a pretty anticlimactic way to settle things (unless TUO is implementing tiebreaker duels ).

I doubt the elims did the maths tbhhh so I dunno why I'm doing this. Still, we're in the world where we assume the skipped kill is tactical and not just forgetfulness, so we're gonna wargame it out to its conclusion.

I mean the other reason to not kill is just to mess with everybody's heads. Minimally, this speaks to players who like mindgames. As far as I know, nobody in this game likes mindgames as much as I do, and I didn't do it, so I refer you back to case 1 seeming more likely. Then again, I am not a Meta Expert:tm:. I don't exactly know everybody's appetite for this sort of play.

I dunno. It isn't really a mystery that needs solving, and I've overanlyzed the lack of a kill before to my detriment. But that's my initial read of it.

 

(merge) I feel like if CD was a narc he'd also be reluctant to just openly bandwagon his vote, so that's another slight point in favor of CD evading taxes.

Edited July 6, 2025 by DrakeMarshall

[Kasimir he/him]

18 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said:

This also has me very confused. Why would a dead v!Kas be evidence for e!Wonko? I understand at least some of the suspicions you've put on me so far, but not how they're somehow strengthened by an elim decision to kill you. Why would e!Wonko pick this fight with you on the same cycle the elims plan to kill you? What could I possibly stand to gain?

I'm not sure if you weren't paying attention, but I was one of the leaders in the votes at the time you died, because as I alluded to, I'd replied PMs. I was fine with being C1ed because I didn't want you C1ed as a returning player even if I thought you were Evil so I figured, whatever, I'll eat the C1 exe but make my thoughts on where to go after I died clear ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

5 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Assuming 2 elims.

I don't think this is as likely I'll be honest. At the time the ruleset was running in committee, the consensus was that it's a harder game for Elims, and a bit V!sided on account of the bounty hunter/target mech. One of the solutions that TUN was mulling over was a slightly larger Elim team. (There's a world in which TUN gets spicy and cherry-picks the Elim team but I don't really see that as likely because I think that world has a high chance of a you/me, me/TJ, or me/Striker pairing at minimum and that's prima facie false anyway from most of your POVs, and certainly for mine. I also think just trying to pick an Elim team and balance it opens LG20 worries, so I'm not so sure Araris immediately okays it out the gate.) I could see you being screwy enough to skip a kill but I'm not really sure you do it off the box. IDK.

5 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

In this world, we're probably looking at a less active elim team. I'd probably rule out Striker from that team. Probably CD too. Both of them were around near phase change both in-thread and in PMs, which is moderate evidence that evil!them doesn't forget to submit a kill.

Even with Striker being an Elim in the game with Ocho-gate?

[Sparker He/Him]

RP time:

Honesty did not sleep well. Was it because of his Injury or his Increasing paranoia? This would certainly not be the vacation he had hoped.

A rude awakening on the next morning confirmed the worst of his fears: a Homesteader had dissappeared in the night. Maybe it was just a coincidence. Better not to risk it...

"Sorry to hear about that Professor. Did any of you know him well? And have there been any other new arrivals in town the last couple of day?"

Edited July 6, 2025 by Sparker

[Kasimir he/him]

Since I'm no longer hacking my lungs out, or suffering from meds overuse, I'm going to do a bit of a regress through last cycle's voting to piece things together as best as possible. If someone PMed you, if you replied, feel free to mention it so I can fix the votes.

I vote Drake to welcome him back. Striker latches onto that. I still like the vote at face value because it's a very relaxed entrance into the thread - E!Striker sometimes have overexplainy tendencies.

Quote

Drake (2): Kas

Sparker asks what Drake has done. @Sparker, why so? (I'll keep my thoughts to myself until Sparker's reply.)

Drake shows up and votes TJ for kicking puppies. Indeed this is a terrible and evil thing for TJ to have done.

Quote

Drake (2): Kas, Striker
TJ (1): Drake

He drops me a PM about an hour later (his post is timestamped 0127hrs, he PMs me at 0234hrs calling me a coward for not having PMed him.) Worth noting this indicates Drake isn't particularly concerned about accumulating votes (as I mentioned yesterday) though I think Drake is risk-friendly enough to do this regardless. Very tentative V!lean? IDK.

This actually means that the votes become:

Quote

Drake (3): Kas, Striker
TJ (1): Drake
Kas (1):

Because Drake PMs and I reply him.

On 7/5/2025 at 2:54 AM, CoderDrag0n8 said:

Question: Are PMs in character?

because I have been confuzzled.

This post seems to imply Coder has received PMs. I'm guessing it was Drake, but this might mean Coder also accumulated a vote in the process.

Quote

Drake (3): Kas, Striker
TJ (1): Drake
Kas (1):
Coder (1):

I italicise this because I'm not so sure of it.

On 7/5/2025 at 3:11 AM, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

Do we get an extra vote for sending the "Kindling the Flame" PM, or is that the +1 already included?

Interesting that TOW is considering Kindling at this stage.

At around 0334hrs, Drake discovers group PMs can be sent and sends one to me and TJ. TJ replies at 0355hrs saying the game is hitting a bad RL patch for him. (This predates TJ activity in the Day thread.)

Effectively, this is the vote situation:

Quote

Drake (3): Kas, Striker
TJ (2): Drake
Kas (1):
Coder (1):

Drake and TJ in the lead.

I then decide to vote Wonko to see if I can form a reaction read. The vote part actually isn't essential, only the accusation is, but I didn't like leaving my vote on Drake as I felt it'd stuck around enough.

Quote

Drake (2): Striker
TJ (2): Drake
Kas (1):
Coder (1):
Wonko (1): Kas

Wonko then votes me, which brings me into the three-way tie. This is at 0722hrs.

Quote

Drake (2): Striker
TJ (2): Drake
Kas (2): Wonko
Coder (1):
Wonko (1): Kas

There's an interesting question here as to whether the Elims realise this is a three-way tie. If the me-Drake-TJ PMs aren't Elim-infiltrated (I don't know the odds of that), it's theoretically possible that they weren't aware that there was a triple lead at this point. If so, I'm curious as to what they think the vote-state at that juncture is, but I don't know it is something that can be assessed. I'm guessing the best is they think Drake is in the lead, since I alluded to Drake sending PMs, so maybe something like this?

Quote

Drake (2): Striker
TJ (1): Drake
Kas (1): Wonko
Coder (1):
Wonko (1): Kas

Coder and Sparker aren't particularly bothered by this state of affairs. I don't know this feels like a teamed interaction still, and the stability of the three way tie occurs until 0644hrs this morning, so...4 hours 16 minutes to rollover?

@DrakeMarshall, @StrikerEZ - curious about your thoughts behind the tie-breaker. Partly understandable for Drake since he's still in the lead tie, though actually Drake just makes it a different three-way tie:

Quote

Drake (2): Striker
TJ (1):
Kas (2): Wonko
Coder (1):
Wonko (2): Kas, Drake

Whereas Drake voting me would have probably removed himself from the three-way. 

Striker follows the vote an hour later. Since Striker isn't part of the PM cluster, we have to consider both perspectives for Striker:

Either he thinks he's doing this:

Quote

Drake (1): 
TJ (1): Drake
Kas (1): Wonko
Coder (1):
Wonko (3): Kas, Drake, Striker

Or he thinks he's doing this:

Quote

Drake (1): 
TJ (1):
Kas (2): Wonko
Coder (1):
Wonko (3): Kas, Drake, Striker

That move has some interesting value in a Striker-TJ world. I just don't know if I immediately buy that.

I tentatively agree with Drake about Coder's vote feeling kind of...self-conscious, but not necessarily in an E!way. I feel like E!Coder would probably be asked to fake a reason or something.

Thoughts:

-Coder can be V for now.
-Still okay-ish with V Striker but I'd like to understand more about that vote.
-Theoretically Drake being okay with sending PMs early on is a bit of risk for an Elim with two votes on him but I'm not sure E!Drake thinks this is an insurmountable obstacle.
-I'm trying to understand how KSauce derives the Coder read because I'm not sure Coder played before, and it seems to wash out quite a bit into a nothing read.
-Storm offering a light defense of Wonko but not voting in defense of Wonko is a Choice.

Off D1, I'd probably try: TJ.

I haven't decided how to read KSauce, and theoretically Storm is being a tiny bit more forthcoming than in last game (worried I'm misreading him but we can talk about that later on - maybe there's a bit of TMI there as Storm is actually making an NAI point about me but it's not framed as NAI, and Storm should be more aware of this having come off a V and then an E game with me in which I did the same thing.)

There's some weak stability around the <Drake, TJ, Kas> and then the <Wonko, Drake/TJ, Kas> trinity that suggests there isn't a strong Elim predominance there, otherwise they should be less happy about the result. Part of it depends on the Striker and Coder reads tbf.

Let's look at the 'did not vote' pool just to not forget them: <Sparker, KSauce, Storm, TOW>.

I have some theories about the Hunter but IDK whether to share them as we don't really know if the Hunter/Target are Villagers, and I could see an exotic distro with an E!Hunter to probably justify a smaller Elim team (recognise I'm walking back what I just said but if I bracket some of the comments from Committee, I guess TUN could get more exotic with the distro.)

Current vote:

Quote

TJ (3): Kas
Kas (2):
Drake (2):
Coder (1):
Striker (1):

Something to consider: does an Elim make a vote here? I could see them trying to avoid it - if a V/V train is going through, you don't need to help it. Which might mean good things with regard to Coder regardless.

With that in mind...

TOW instead.

Quote

TJ (2):
Kas (2):
Drake (2):
Coder (1):
Striker (1):
TOW (1): Kas

[Sparker He/Him]

I was asking what Drake had done because two people just started voting Drake right away. So I wanted to know why.

I also want to point out that I will mostly be sleeping in the hours before each cycle ends due to timezones.

Edited July 6, 2025 by Sparker

[KaladinsSenseOfHumourSpren He/Him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

-I'm trying to understand how KSauce derives the Coder read because I'm not sure Coder played before, and it seems to wash out quite a bit into a nothing read.

Coder has not. I was talking about non-SE RPs.

I was mainly just trying to post something at least remotely useful, as I was traveling most of last Cycle. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Side-thought: I'm leaning to at most one Elim in <Drake, TJ> because on further reflection, making that group PM is a Choice.

Drake is risk-happy enough to do it but I'm not sure if E!him would be willing to put E!TJ on the spot without talking it through. 

On that view, we had predominantly Village trains for most of the cycle which would explain stagnancy.

[|TJ| he/him]

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Side-thought: I'm leaning to at most one Elim in <Drake, TJ> because on further reflection, making that group PM is a Choice.

Same lol, especially with that particular name. But again, not sure why a team of you and/or Drake would choose to not kill someone because if either of you are evil, it is a deliberate choice not to kill, and not accidentally forgotten to submit. 

Not sure if this info is important but just putting it out there - Drake did sent me a PM about 90 mins before he sent the group PM. 

Also, shouldn't you and Drake have 3 votes? 2 cycles PMs and voting on Wonko? 

[Kasimir he/him]

32 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Also, shouldn't you and Drake have 3 votes? 2 cycles PMs and voting on Wonko? 

On 6/26/2025 at 1:04 PM, The Unknown Order said:

Unless said to be permanent (just the BH's) all added or subtracted votes will only persist for a single cycle

You replied to us in PMs for two cycles so by your logic you should have three too. But regardless, the PM votes don't persist past the cycle they're incurred. I'm counting the single vote for shedding blood, and the added vote for PMing.

On 6/26/2025 at 1:04 PM, The Unknown Order said:

Don't Shed the Blood of Another: Whenever a player dies to the Shades, their blood splatters upon their accusers. When a player is executed, everyone who voted on them the previous turn will have +1 vote added to their total.

Don't Run at Night: Communication beyond the main conversations is possible, but it regards actions some would consider foolish. PMs are open, but anyone who sends a PM in a cycle will have +1 vote added to their total. Receiving a PM will not trigger this, but replying will. This is triggered by any message sent, whether in an old or new PM thread. This will only result in +1 vote being added per cycle, you do not receive a vote for every PM you send.

Voting on the killing train explicitly adds it for the next cycle (so us, which is why I mentioned Coder seemed pretty unconcerned about it, which is a weak positive in my book), and PMs are only +1 per cycle of use.

38 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Same lol, especially with that particular name. But again, not sure why a team of you and/or Drake would choose to not kill someone because if either of you are evil, it is a deliberate choice not to kill, and not accidentally forgotten to submit. 

Drake is screwy enough I wouldn't hard-clear off it but I admit I struggle to see him completely forgetting. I've kept my M&M teams remembering to kill but with how sick I was over the past days, it's down to your intuitions as to whether an E!me remembers or not to get a holding kill pre-submitted. It's my one point of mild ? about Drake because he's watched me play with the most insanely forgetful M&M teams (for context, these guys forgot the kill twice after I died and wasn't around to nag them to pre-submit before) but I dunno if he's working off the "Kase is pretty sick" line because I kind of just gave up on something we were gonna do the other day because I was too sick for it. And in that world, yeah I guess I could kinda see myself being sick enough to forget to nag for a holding kill? IDK. Either way this doesn't go anywhere useful for anyone not me. It's just me talking aloud about my thoughts on Drake and trying to work out how I feel I guess.

I'm curious if the Elims are kill-shy because:

On 6/26/2025 at 1:04 PM, The Unknown Order said:

If the Target outlives the Bounty Hunter for any reason, the Target will be told two players, one will be a Homesteader and one will be a Constable. They will not be told which is which.

Potential worries of taking out the BH by accident. Don't think either role is Village guaranteed, but it was something I saw when relooking through the rules.

@The Unknown Order Just to confirm, rules-as-written, if the Elim kill hits the Target, the BH still gets the benefits? Second question: how does OoA resolve if the target is exed in the same cycle the Elims shoot the BH?

There's an alternative thought I suppose that the Elims theorised I'm the Bounty Hunter and I was trying to cash in on Wonko and so preferred me to get the cash in as compared to Wonko surviving and my dying, since this means Wonko receives a good PoE. There's the question of how they feel about the fact I never explicitly claimed BH and Wonko never explicitly claimed Target (and has now flipped not-Target.) Also interesting in light of my being willing to leave my vote on Wonko and just go sleep off the sick. Either way, that world does very interesting things to the <Drake, Striker, Coder> pool if I'm honest.

Edited to add:

Yeah I forgot:

2 hours ago, Sparker said:

I was asking what Drake had done because two people just started voting Drake right away. So I wanted to know why.

I don't wanna overcredence this and part of this will depend on what happens once Sparker starts casting accusations but rn, am ok with weak V points for this.

Edited to add 2:

12 hours ago, The Unknown Order said:

Give me just a moment to update it to cycle too ( @Kasimir can I just c&p?)

C/ping is fine btw. I've updated it as well to reflect player death to make tracking a tad easier.

[CoderDrag0n8 He/They]

10 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

RIP Wonko  I liked your mech analysis even if I was reluctant to credit you for it.

Alright let's see. First order of business, the lack of a murder is interesting.

Either the killers forgot, or they decided not to. Those are the only options. There's no abilities in this setup that can block a kill, and the Hunter's ability won't kick in without the Target dead.

Case 1 - The killers forgot.

I tend to think this option is the simplest, a priori. Although the last few times I assumed this I was wrong so. What do I know. 

But like. It really isn't that hard to just. Forget. Especially cuz I doubt a 10 player game has a very big elim team.

In this world, we're probably looking at a less active elim team. I'd probably rule out Striker from that team. Probably CD too. Both of them were around near phase change both in-thread and in PMs, which is moderate evidence that evil!them doesn't forget to submit a kill.

Particularly any more experienced elims on that team would probably need to be a bit checked out around rollover for the team to coast by with no kill submitted. If we suppose an experienced elim is in fact on the team, it leaves <Kas, TJ>.

Case 2 - The killers didn't kill on purpose.

The maths sorta check out wrt skipping a kill working for the elims PtV. It's 2v8->2v6->2v4->2v2->2v0 without skip, or 2v8->2v7->2v5->2v3->2v1 with skip. Assuming 2 elims. In either case, their optimal PtV is the same number of steps. The skip does make the penultimate step 2v3 instead of 2v2 -- I suppose whether this is desirable or not is a matter of preference. The 2v2 means you'd have a 50/50 shot at winning there even if your team were outed, the 2v3 means you avoid that possibility of RNG deciding the outcome of the game which is a pretty anticlimactic way to settle things (unless TUO is implementing tiebreaker duels ).

I doubt the elims did the maths tbhhh so I dunno why I'm doing this. Still, we're in the world where we assume the skipped kill is tactical and not just forgetfulness, so we're gonna wargame it out to its conclusion.

I mean the other reason to not kill is just to mess with everybody's heads. Minimally, this speaks to players who like mindgames. As far as I know, nobody in this game likes mindgames as much as I do, and I didn't do it, so I refer you back to case 1 seeming more likely. Then again, I am not a Meta Expert:tm:. I don't exactly know everybody's appetite for this sort of play.

I dunno. It isn't really a mystery that needs solving, and I've overanlyzed the lack of a kill before to my detriment. But that's my initial read of it.

 

(merge) I feel like if CD was a narc he'd also be reluctant to just openly bandwagon his vote, so that's another slight point in favor of CD evading taxes.

I would like you to consider:

Case 3 - Wonko was the Target.

Wonko was the target, they tried to kill the bounty hunter, he used his immunity. 

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Since I'm no longer hacking my lungs out, or suffering from meds overuse, I'm going to do a bit of a regress through last cycle's voting to piece things together as best as possible. If someone PMed you, if you replied, feel free to mention it so I can fix the votes.

I vote Drake to welcome him back. Striker latches onto that. I still like the vote at face value because it's a very relaxed entrance into the thread - E!Striker sometimes have overexplainy tendencies.

Sparker asks what Drake has done. @Sparker, why so? (I'll keep my thoughts to myself until Sparker's reply.)

Drake shows up and votes TJ for kicking puppies. Indeed this is a terrible and evil thing for TJ to have done.

He drops me a PM about an hour later (his post is timestamped 0127hrs, he PMs me at 0234hrs calling me a coward for not having PMed him.) Worth noting this indicates Drake isn't particularly concerned about accumulating votes (as I mentioned yesterday) though I think Drake is risk-friendly enough to do this regardless. Very tentative V!lean? IDK.

This actually means that the votes become:

Because Drake PMs and I reply him.

This post seems to imply Coder has received PMs. I'm guessing it was Drake, but this might mean Coder also accumulated a vote in the process.

I italicise this because I'm not so sure of it.

Interesting that TOW is considering Kindling at this stage.

At around 0334hrs, Drake discovers group PMs can be sent and sends one to me and TJ. TJ replies at 0355hrs saying the game is hitting a bad RL patch for him. (This predates TJ activity in the Day thread.)

Effectively, this is the vote situation:

Drake and TJ in the lead.

I then decide to vote Wonko to see if I can form a reaction read. The vote part actually isn't essential, only the accusation is, but I didn't like leaving my vote on Drake as I felt it'd stuck around enough.

Wonko then votes me, which brings me into the three-way tie. This is at 0722hrs.

There's an interesting question here as to whether the Elims realise this is a three-way tie. If the me-Drake-TJ PMs aren't Elim-infiltrated (I don't know the odds of that), it's theoretically possible that they weren't aware that there was a triple lead at this point. If so, I'm curious as to what they think the vote-state at that juncture is, but I don't know it is something that can be assessed. I'm guessing the best is they think Drake is in the lead, since I alluded to Drake sending PMs, so maybe something like this?

Coder and Sparker aren't particularly bothered by this state of affairs. I don't know this feels like a teamed interaction still, and the stability of the three way tie occurs until 0644hrs this morning, so...4 hours 16 minutes to rollover?

@DrakeMarshall, @StrikerEZ - curious about your thoughts behind the tie-breaker. Partly understandable for Drake since he's still in the lead tie, though actually Drake just makes it a different three-way tie:

Whereas Drake voting me would have probably removed himself from the three-way. 

Striker follows the vote an hour later. Since Striker isn't part of the PM cluster, we have to consider both perspectives for Striker:

Either he thinks he's doing this:

Or he thinks he's doing this:

That move has some interesting value in a Striker-TJ world. I just don't know if I immediately buy that.

I tentatively agree with Drake about Coder's vote feeling kind of...self-conscious, but not necessarily in an E!way. I feel like E!Coder would probably be asked to fake a reason or something.

Thoughts:

-Coder can be V for now.
-Still okay-ish with V Striker but I'd like to understand more about that vote.
-Theoretically Drake being okay with sending PMs early on is a bit of risk for an Elim with two votes on him but I'm not sure E!Drake thinks this is an insurmountable obstacle.
-I'm trying to understand how KSauce derives the Coder read because I'm not sure Coder played before, and it seems to wash out quite a bit into a nothing read.
-Storm offering a light defense of Wonko but not voting in defense of Wonko is a Choice.

Off D1, I'd probably try: TJ.

I haven't decided how to read KSauce, and theoretically Storm is being a tiny bit more forthcoming than in last game (worried I'm misreading him but we can talk about that later on - maybe there's a bit of TMI there as Storm is actually making an NAI point about me but it's not framed as NAI, and Storm should be more aware of this having come off a V and then an E game with me in which I did the same thing.)

There's some weak stability around the <Drake, TJ, Kas> and then the <Wonko, Drake/TJ, Kas> trinity that suggests there isn't a strong Elim predominance there, otherwise they should be less happy about the result. Part of it depends on the Striker and Coder reads tbf.

Let's look at the 'did not vote' pool just to not forget them: <Sparker, KSauce, Storm, TOW>.

I have some theories about the Hunter but IDK whether to share them as we don't really know if the Hunter/Target are Villagers, and I could see an exotic distro with an E!Hunter to probably justify a smaller Elim team (recognise I'm walking back what I just said but if I bracket some of the comments from Committee, I guess TUN could get more exotic with the distro.)

Current vote:

Something to consider: does an Elim make a vote here? I could see them trying to avoid it - if a V/V train is going through, you don't need to help it. Which might mean good things with regard to Coder regardless.

With that in mind...

TOW instead.

Defense in my Wonko vote, this is my first SE. I was unsure wether or not I had to vote each round. I was not in a strategic mindset, so I forgot that there could be extra votes that people aren't seeing. I thought, I don't want my vote to matter. So I voted someone I had though was for sure already dead.

I dont know why people keep adding ! everywhere.

[Kasimir he/him]

8 minutes ago, CoderDrag0n8 said:

Case 3 - Wonko was the Target.

Unless otherwise specified, games usually reveal role and alignment on flip. No role specified here means Wonko was a homesteader, which is why no one has been considering a world where Wonko really was the Target. @The Unknown Order

Edited to add:

Did you receive a PM last cycle, and if so, did you reply?

[|TJ| he/him]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

You replied to us in PMs for two cycles so by your logic you should have three too. But regardless, the PM votes don't persist past the cycle they're incurred. I'm counting the single vote for shedding blood, and the added vote for PMing.

I didn't vote last cycle bro. 

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Voting on the killing train explicitly adds it for the next cycle (so us, which is why I mentioned Coder seemed pretty unconcerned about it, which is a weak positive in my book), and PMs are only +1 per cycle of use.

Ah okay, so the PM votes are not cumulative. 

28 minutes ago, CoderDrag0n8 said:

Case 3 - Wonko was the Target.

17 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Unless otherwise specified, games usually reveal role and alignment on flip. No role specified here means Wonko was a homesteader, which is why no one has been considering a world where Wonko really was the Target.

I read this as Wonko was the kill target, and it would be very very unpopular because it would require the elims to not be active enough to see the Wonko votes popping and and also be okay with killing a returning player. 

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I read this as Wonko was the kill target, and it would be very very unpopular because it would require the elims to not be active enough to see the Wonko votes popping and and also be okay with killing a returning player. 

33 minutes ago, CoderDrag0n8 said:

Case 3 - Wonko was the Target.

Wonko was the target, they tried to kill the bounty hunter, he used his immunity. 

Very next line suggests that's not what Coder had in mind...

Some of this boils down to how a survival is depicted. Normally it's announced, which adds to the list of questions for @The Unknown Order to address, preferably before I find out that GUNTHER is going to lose to Goldberg next Saturday

Even if it were what Coder had in mind, IMO a double kill ( @The Unknown Order - will this be reflected as was both arrested and executed?) is something to watch for because as in MR57, it has solid implications that the Elims weren't on to catch the Wonko train taking off, and this means we can soft-to-medium clear everyone in <Drake, Striker, Coder> which is actually a very solid thing to have early on.

3 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I didn't vote last cycle bro. 

D'oh.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

You replied to us in PMs for two cycles so by your logic you should have three too. But regardless, the PM votes don't persist past the cycle they're incurred. I'm counting the single vote for shedding blood, and the added vote for PMing.

Voting on the killing train explicitly adds it for the next cycle (so us, which is why I mentioned Coder seemed pretty unconcerned about it, which is a weak positive in my book), and PMs are only +1 per cycle of use.

Drake is screwy enough I wouldn't hard-clear off it but I admit I struggle to see him completely forgetting. I've kept my M&M teams remembering to kill but with how sick I was over the past days, it's down to your intuitions as to whether an E!me remembers or not to get a holding kill pre-submitted. It's my one point of mild ? about Drake because he's watched me play with the most insanely forgetful M&M teams (for context, these guys forgot the kill twice after I died and wasn't around to nag them to pre-submit before) but I dunno if he's working off the "Kase is pretty sick" line because I kind of just gave up on something we were gonna do the other day because I was too sick for it. And in that world, yeah I guess I could kinda see myself being sick enough to forget to nag for a holding kill? IDK. Either way this doesn't go anywhere useful for anyone not me. It's just me talking aloud about my thoughts on Drake and trying to work out how I feel I guess.

I'm curious if the Elims are kill-shy because:

Potential worries of taking out the BH by accident. Don't think either role is Village guaranteed, but it was something I saw when relooking through the rules.

@The Unknown Order Just to confirm, rules-as-written, if the Elim kill hits the Target, the BH still gets the benefits? Second question: how does OoA resolve if the target is exed in the same cycle the Elims shoot the BH?

There's an alternative thought I suppose that the Elims theorised I'm the Bounty Hunter and I was trying to cash in on Wonko and so preferred me to get the cash in as compared to Wonko surviving and my dying, since this means Wonko receives a good PoE. There's the question of how they feel about the fact I never explicitly claimed BH and Wonko never explicitly claimed Target (and has now flipped not-Target.) Also interesting in light of my being willing to leave my vote on Wonko and just go sleep off the sick. Either way, that world does very interesting things to the <Drake, Striker, Coder> pool if I'm honest.

Edited to add:

Yeah I forgot:

I don't wanna overcredence this and part of this will depend on what happens once Sparker starts casting accusations but rn, am ok with weak V points for this.

Edited to add 2:

C/ping is fine btw. I've updated it as well to reflect player death to make tracking a tad easier.

The elim kill is a success for the BH. I'm going to rule that the BH survives this one.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Unless otherwise specified, games usually reveal role and alignment on flip. No role specified here means Wonko was a homesteader, which is why no one has been considering a world where Wonko really was the Target. @The Unknown Order

Edited to add:

Did you receive a PM last cycle, and if so, did you reply?

This is true.

I did receive several PMs and I replied some of them.

Oh wait, you weren't asking me. Sorry. 

57 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Very next line suggests that's not what Coder had in mind...

Some of this boils down to how a survival is depicted. Normally it's announced, which adds to the list of questions for @The Unknown Order to address, preferably before I find out that GUNTHER is going to lose to Goldberg next Saturday

Even if it were what Coder had in mind, IMO a double kill ( @The Unknown Order - will this be reflected as was both arrested and executed?) is something to watch for because as in MR57, it has solid implications that the Elims weren't on to catch the Wonko train taking off, and this means we can soft-to-medium clear everyone in <Drake, Striker, Coder> which is actually a very solid thing to have early on.

D'oh.

All kills will be denoted.

[TwinStorm He/Him]

Wonko being village means a lot. His mech analysis comes from mostly a trustworthy spot, and is worth referring back too. Moreover it likely means that some of the people who pushed at the end of the day are elims.

Four people voted for Wonko. These are CoderDrag0n8, DrakeMarshall, Kasimir, StrikerEZ

This is Coder's first game, and he doesn't seem too invested in the mystery, preferring to rp, until his vote on Wonko, in which the only reason he cited was peer pressure, never a good reason to vote in an SE game. Now I think that most elims would try to justify their vote, but Coder didn't, so I think he is likely more of an unwitting accomplice on the train, though I am still suspicious.

Drake pointing to the elim's choice not to kill is an interesting play as an elim, but as for Wonko I don't like his vote with little explanation, which I can understand as all the evidence pointed against Wonko, but even then his affirmation of "well we're doing this" is slightly suspicious, as if trying to affirm the train. However Drake opening several PMs takes some of my suspicions away. As Wonko said, its not worth opening PMs as an elim, with the risk far higher than the reward.

Kas . . . Kas is a doozy. Quite frankly, I find it out of character for a straight-up attack on Wonko, claiming a pressure test but continuing to push against him and rally more votes until he was executed. But then his read today seems more logical, and gives a fair explanation. Kas is still on the watchlist, but I don't want to consider a vote for him right now.

Then, lastly we have Striker. Striker has barely posted, asking for a rules clarification before putting up a vote on Drake that seems largely a joke, and finishing with a Wonko vote that seems to just be joining the train. Striker is an experienced player, and I don't like him putting up votes for no reason.

Imma vote StrikerEZ for rn, though I would like some more explanations and thoughts from all the players. 

[CoderDrag0n8 He/They]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Unless otherwise specified, games usually reveal role and alignment on flip. No role specified here means Wonko was a homesteader, which is why no one has been considering a world where Wonko really was the Target. @The Unknown Order

Edited to add:

Did you receive a PM last cycle, and if so, did you reply?

Hehe. Whoops. Ig im still new to SE.

Yes. I did. Yes to both qs.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

I must admit I didn’t think through my votes too hard. Not that I ever really do on D1 anyway. I voted Wonko because I thought he was really overreacting to Kas’s accusations. I do feel pretty bad now that Wonko’s dead, especially because this was his first game back in a bit.

As for who I suspect, after last game I am extremely paranoid about Kas. But I don’t think he would let a kill slip on by. I could see Drake specifically avoiding a kill for various reasons. It feels right up his alley. Especially because he’s already playing risky with all the PMing. (He also PM’d me)

I think I’ll vote for Drake

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Interesting that TOW is considering Kindling at this stage.

I just don't want to be caught unaware later, when votes matter more. 

RNG says Sparker. I'll probably change this later as more people talk, but I don't want to end another cycle without voting.

[TwinStorm He/Him]

15 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I must admit I didn’t think through my votes too hard. Not that I ever really do on D1 anyway. I voted Wonko because I thought he was really overreacting to Kas’s accusations. I do feel pretty bad now that Wonko’s dead, especially because this was his first game back in a bit.

As for who I suspect, after last game I am extremely paranoid about Kas. But I don’t think he would let a kill slip on by. I could see Drake specifically avoiding a kill for various reasons. It feels right up his alley. Especially because he’s already playing risky with all the PMing. (He also PM’d me)

I think I’ll vote for Drake

I agree with this, but all the PMs feel too risky for an elim, unless he was trying to drag down other players with him (I could see that being a viable elim strategy)

with more thought tho, I can see Kas intentionally skipping a kill for a low info approach since Wonko's death already adds enough suspicion to him, and alongside my previous suspicions, it adds up enough to prove that Kasimir could be elim, but I need to do some more digging, and would welcome a defense @Kasimir

[Kasimir he/him]

6 hours ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

RNG says Sparker

Urgh. Guess I'm staying on TOW then.

6 hours ago, TwinStorm said:

with more thought tho, I can see Kas intentionally skipping a kill for a low info approach since Wonko's death already adds enough suspicion to him, and alongside my previous suspicions, it adds up enough to prove that Kasimir could be elim, but I need to do some more digging, and would welcome a defense @Kasimir

K so on this view why push for a Wonko death of the entire group of players I can sus and have killed since Wonko is a returning player who should not get C1ed in his first game back? TUN and Araris may not give a damn about things like this but I certainly do or I would not have been careful about our kills last game, or fought Araris and TUN about it in the aftermath, or upset Gaea with my frustration about Teldris being C2ed.

Alongside your previous suspicions is especially egregious when:

Quote

Kas's post felt like a test to see how Wonko would react, which is one of his favorite strategies, though I will note that in Wonko's mech analysis, he seems far too eager to let the villagers rack up votes on themselves. I don't think this is damning of him at all, and I like the analysis, but something good to note.

You offer a nothing statement last cycle, which washes out to theoretically NAI of me, defending me in context given Wonko, slight sus on Wonko ending with a positive on Wonko, and don't defend Wonko/vote in defense of Wonko. It reads kind of opportunistic that you now cite previous suspicions when you chose to leave well enough alone last cycle, which is a convenient place for an Elim to be with regard to keeping your hands clean of majority-Village trains and not carrying an extra vote into the next cycle.

Honestly back to where I was:

-Sparker can be weak Village for the moment. I could see the question on the votes coming from an Elim but kind of feel it's natural from a lost Village new to RVS. This changes if Sparker has experience.
-Coder seems Village on two fronts: I agree with Drake RE: the naked sheep (at some point this becomes TWTBAW) but also Coder not seeming to be afraid of carrying the extra vote from killing Wonko. And if I'm correct that there's at most one Elim between Drake/TJ, that sheep really becomes an unforced error.
-Striker kind of keeps the weak Village lean from his opening. But there's a point I question it, and the Drake push is weird to me precisely because I feel there's at most one Elim between Drake/TJ so would not push in that pool first (and also because the Elims may help us by killing there. IDK.)
-Drake/TJ - kind of went over my thoughts on not touching this for now. Not so sure RE: Drake.
 

Leaves me with:
-TOW who threw a vote explicitly mentioned as random. Never fond of these as these tend to be the province of newbie Elims who struggle to generate suspicions and stating it's temporary feels like trying to shield himself from accountability for the vote.
-KSauce. IDK what to make of that Coder read.
-Storm. Considerations mentioned but largely not a fan of the hands-off D1 into claiming credit approach today. Agreed that this is a shift from Storm's earlier play and Storm is being more proactive in this game which could theoretically be a plus.

If I forgot anyone, they go into PoE too because if you can forget them, that's dangerous.

[TwinStorm He/Him]

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Urgh. Guess I'm staying on TOW then.

K so on this view why push for a Wonko death of the entire group of players I can sus and have killed since Wonko is a returning player who should not get C1ed in his first game back? TUN and Araris may not give a damn about things like this but I certainly do or I would not have been careful about our kills last game, or fought Araris and TUN about it in the aftermath, or upset Gaea with my frustration about Teldris being C2ed.

Alongside your previous suspicions is especially egregious when:

You offer a nothing statement last cycle, which washes out to theoretically NAI of me, defending me in context given Wonko, slight sus on Wonko ending with a positive on Wonko, and don't defend Wonko/vote in defense of Wonko. It reads kind of opportunistic that you now cite previous suspicions when you chose to leave well enough alone last cycle, which is a convenient place for an Elim to be with regard to keeping your hands clean of majority-Village trains and not carrying an extra vote into the next cycle.

Honestly back to where I was:

-Sparker can be weak Village for the moment. I could see the question on the votes coming from an Elim but kind of feel it's natural from a lost Village new to RVS. This changes if Sparker has experience.
-Coder seems Village on two fronts: I agree with Drake RE: the naked sheep (at some point this becomes TWTBAW) but also Coder not seeming to be afraid of carrying the extra vote from killing Wonko. And if I'm correct that there's at most one Elim between Drake/TJ, that sheep really becomes an unforced error.
-Striker kind of keeps the weak Village lean from his opening. But there's a point I question it, and the Drake push is weird to me precisely because I feel there's at most one Elim between Drake/TJ so would not push in that pool first (and also because the Elims may help us by killing there. IDK.)
-Drake/TJ - kind of went over my thoughts on not touching this for now. Not so sure RE: Drake.
 

Leaves me with:
-TOW who threw a vote explicitly mentioned as random. Never fond of these as these tend to be the province of newbie Elims who struggle to generate suspicions and stating it's temporary feels like trying to shield himself from accountability for the vote.
-KSauce. IDK what to make of that Coder read.
-Storm. Considerations mentioned but largely not a fan of the hands-off D1 into claiming credit approach today. Agreed that this is a shift from Storm's earlier play and Storm is being more proactive in this game which could theoretically be a plus.

If I forgot anyone, they go into PoE too because if you can forget them, that's dangerous.

okay thats completely fair. Teldris's death . . . yeah

thats not the suspicions I was referring to

I was referring to my earlier C2 read where I talked abt how the pressure test (a strategy you do love) turned into something more, as you started accusing him more and more to the point where 3 folks voted on him stating no particular reason. That only happens when the evidence is overwhelming, and the train is being ferociously pursued, like Striker last game.

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

as you started accusing him more and more to the point where 3 folks voted on him stating no particular reason.

Okay, but I was offline by the time the three people voted on him, which is the basis of Drake's suspicion of me. Since they explicitly stated no particular reason, you saying I got them to vote him is a connection that I don't really understand. Well, Coder explicitly just said he was sheeping the other two.

7 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

That only happens when the evidence is overwhelming, and the train is being ferociously pursued, like Striker last game.

Okay, so in your view, the evidence was overwhelming or not? If it was, then that's a judgement call the three of them made. If it wasn't, then that's similarly a question I note you are interested in putting to me, but not to any of the three people who voted late and made a decisive train happen, with no reasons given. Why is this? Is there a reason you are not interested in pursuing it with them?

[TwinStorm He/Him]

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Okay, but I was offline by the time the three people voted on him, which is the basis of Drake's suspicion of me. Since they explicitly stated no particular reason, you saying I got them to vote him is a connection that I don't really understand. Well, Coder explicitly just said he was sheeping the other two.

Okay, so in your view, the evidence was overwhelming or not? If it was, then that's a judgement call the three of them made. If it wasn't, then that's similarly a question I note you are interested in putting to me, but not to any of the three people who voted late and made a decisive train happen, with no reasons given. Why is this? Is there a reason you are not interested in pursuing it with them?

I am, I wrote an analysis on the 3 of them, and even accused Striker to see how he would react. He didn't seem too shocked, and gave a pretty good reason for Drake being an elim, which I doubt due to the sheer number of PMs he has sent, making him an extremely likely candidate for execution. Even if Coder is elim, which I doubt, I'd rather give him his space and focus on the veteran players who would be most dangerous as elims.

[|TJ| he/him]

I'm gonna relay what I said to Kas in private comms - 

I dislike Storm's first post in this cycle more than their second. He looks like he suspects Drake more but his vote ends up on... Striker? 

Regards to his second post, his reasoning on Kas seems sincere imo. Kas' defence is also absolutely valid (i.e., ML'ed Wonko so why wouldn't he kill someone unpopular). 

Also, something to ponder upon if Kas is village (village-reading Kas for now, the threadbrawl with Wonko in D1 is weird for Kas to do as elim), when was the last time someone evil tried to ML Kas? Would TwinStorm try to go for Kas after playing evil with him in the last game? I'm leaning towards no. I'm not giving much credence to my read of his first post which would be possible teammates with Drake. 

Drake/Striker I'm leaving it to later >> Leaving towards v!Striker and e!Drake

I don't like TOW or KSauces votes or reads.

I like Coder better thank Sparker.  

[TwinStorm He/Him]

8 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I'm gonna relay what I said to Kas in private comms - 

I dislike Storm's first post in this cycle more than their second. He looks like he suspects Drake more but his vote ends up on... Striker? 

Regards to his second post, his reasoning on Kas seems sincere imo. Kas' defence is also absolutely valid (i.e., ML'ed Wonko so why wouldn't he kill someone unpopular). 

Also, something to ponder upon if Kas is village (village-reading Kas for now, the threadbrawl with Wonko in D1 is weird for Kas to do as elim), when was the last time someone evil tried to ML Kas? Would TwinStorm try to go for Kas after playing evil with him in the last game? I'm leaning towards no. I'm not giving much credence to my read of his first post which would be possible teammates with Drake. 

Drake/Striker I'm leaving it to later >> Leaving towards v!Striker and e!Drake

I don't like TOW or KSauces votes or reads.

I like Coder better thank Sparker.  

Simply because Drake is playing it simply too risky for an elim, it's a horrible idea for an elim to send that many PMs, at least in my opinion

rn tho Kas' reasoning abt even as an elim not targeting Wonko makes sense, since I've seen how mad he gets when new person/veteran gets killed instantly, and it doesn't seem like e!Kas style to continue accusing Wonko, he likes to play it safe. 

That leaves me with the 4 who accused Wonko and TOW as well as KSauce for weird reads

I still sorta suspect Coder but would rather pull a veteran elim first to let him play and kill the bigger threat (no offense ofc)

Drake, like I said, is too risky playing for an elim, tho I need to think more abt it

Striker seems legit, but I really just need see more

I'm leaning village for TJ but I don't wanna discount him, since he has been known to blend in the past

TOW's votes have been weird, same with KSauce

idk

imma go TOW for rn, to spread votes around