Long Game 104: The Flame of Tar Valon

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, STINK said:

Rasmuht awoke again (?), wait, when did they go to sleep? They have an alarm? 

What's going on?

Wanna play hangman?

[Terrisman]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Night kill analysis. Ash is particularly good at it. It means looking at who the Black Ajah kill to make inferences about who the Black Ajah are.

On looking at my post again, I think there's an interesting situation/possibility where the Black Ajah could just fullsend: one member hell buses your team, secures the nomination for Amrylin, and then survives the deposition and wins on the basis of the hell bus. I think this should theoretically still be detectable and should be somewhat incompatible with them going all-in on the standard wincon this game but think it's worth keeping in mind that the subwoofer payoffs this game can actually be pretty good.

I will however caution that the Village needs to not paranoia-despose. Probably won't be around for this to be my problem by then though   

I understood some of your words there

Ok I get what you mean by bussing. That’s what I was suggesting we need to watch for before.

not sure what subwoofer is though

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Uh...Jo, you would never be in danger of being exed D1 as a returning player. Why are you worried about the exe specifically as compared to the Elim kill?

I can't tell, is this a joke? Are you unaware that I was Exed D1 on my first game back?

And I'm not, worried, per say. Hmm, I don't know how to phrase this. I want to survive longer in this game, and I want to either win, or at least put up a good fight. I don't think I'm likely to be Exed D1 or NK'd N1 because QF74 proved that I'm wildly out of practice at finding Eliminators, but the possibility still exists. Becoming Sitter of the Bug's Life Ajah delays my leaving the game, and helps me focus on analysis. I'm still struggling to develop reads rn, so if I can basically ignore defending myself for a few cycles, and only focus on others, I think that would help me.

I have told my fellow doc mates that if either of them think they would be a better Sitter than me, I'd vote for them, and neither of them took me up on that offer.

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

I understood some of your words there

Rather than sneak by under the radar, I'm saying the more dangerous play to watch out for is if one member of the Black Ajah just hardcommits to looking insanely Village. Normally, the more Black Ajah someone votes to kill, particularly if they are early voters, the more Village they should be. Same for most mafia games, unless they're throwing a teammate under the bus by voting or suspecting (and then voting them) (bussing.) Because bussing generally makes it appreciably harder to win the game, most mafia players will not immediately and aggressively bus out the gate (it's usually a last resort, and done in a limited way.)

The upshot is that the more Elims/mafia someone votes to kill, the more Village they tend to look.

But there's a slightly perverse incentive to do so here because if they aggressively bus (hellbus) their teammates, they can get trusted and voted as Amrylin Seat, which removes the usual problem with bussing.

Having said all that, the main reason I don't think it's as likely is that it requires a specific type of player to pull off, and hellbussing would require them to more or less commit to an Amrylin PtV (path to victory) over the normal PtV. That requires locking in early when maf teams would probably prefer to keep their options open. The way I see it, I think it's just something to watch out for, but not to overdo worry about and to paranoid about at the last minute. Just be aware we should probably not overcredence on having killed Black Ajah in this game.

5 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

I can't tell, is this a joke? Are you unaware that I was Exed D1 on my first game back?

Funny enough, I kept thinking you were the C1 kill rather than the exe. It's also weird in that context due to my pointing out in dead spec you were really obviously Village - the only way you die D1 is if everyone's sleeping on the exe or if the game is full of returnees and new players, which, sorry to say, was pretty much QF74 in a nutshell. Less so here though, given the game comp.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

28 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Rather than sneak by under the radar, I'm saying the more dangerous play to watch out for is if one member of the Black Ajah just hardcommits to looking insanely Village. Normally, the more Black Ajah someone votes to kill, particularly if they are early voters, the more Village they should be. Same for most mafia games, unless they're throwing a teammate under the bus by voting or suspecting (and then voting them) (bussing.) Because bussing generally makes it appreciably harder to win the game, most mafia players will not immediately and aggressively bus out the gate (it's usually a last resort, and done in a limited way.)

The upshot is that the more Elims/mafia someone votes to kill, the more Village they tend to look.

But there's a slightly perverse incentive to do so here because if they aggressively bus (hellbus) their teammates, they can get trusted and voted as Amrylin Seat, which removes the usual problem with bussing.

Having said all that, the main reason I don't think it's as likely is that it requires a specific type of player to pull off, and hellbussing would require them to more or less commit to an Amrylin PtV (path to victory) over the normal PtV. That requires locking in early when maf teams would probably prefer to keep their options open. The way I see it, I think it's just something to watch out for, but not to overdo worry about and to paranoid about at the last minute. Just be aware we should probably not overcredence on having killed Black Ajah in this game.

Funny enough, I kept thinking you were the C1 kill rather than the exe. It's also weird in that context due to my pointing out in dead spec you were really obviously Village - the only way you die D1 is if everyone's sleeping on the exe or if the game is full of returnees and new players, which, sorry to say, was pretty much QF74 in a nutshell. Less so here though, given the game comp.

Smh they asked for less words not more

Edited March 21, 2025 by The Wandering Wizard

[Kasimir he/him]

18 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Smh they asked for less words not more

I assumed they wanted less jargon, not more  Trade-offs.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I assumed they wanted less jargon, not more  Trade-offs.

Fair

[STINK he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Wanna play hangman?

The word you were thinking of was Vikings

[Kasimir he/him]

21 minutes ago, STINK said:

The word you were thinking of was Vikings

Smh I'll go back to watching Netflix then  

[Terrisman]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I assumed they wanted less jargon, not more  Trade-offs.

 

1 hour ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Fair

He’s got it. I’ve never played so while I read the lexicon thing it doesn’t really have all of the jargon so explaining it like that was really helpful

thanks!!

[xxGaea They/Them, Fae/Faer]

On 3/19/2025 at 11:05 PM, xxGaea said:

My brain is too tired to really understand the conversation about reveals tbh--I feel like it would be better to not reveal though, since it's typically better for the elims to have access to less information. I'm not sure what use there is for village in revealing who are teammates and ajahs are?

I'll try and give more coherent thoughts tomorrow--I just wanted to force myself to do an rp post tonight, to try and get over the fear of it lol

8 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

...to clarify, do you recall if you saw the Kas comment while you were working on yours, or are you saying you'd already written that stuff?

Not tryna doubt one way or the other, I'm inclined to take it at face value. Just want to understand a little better.

It was something I had already kinda touched on the night before actually, before any overcamping comments had been made, lol. Iirc, I saw Kas's new comment towards the end of writing my rp, but I had mainly been trying to expand my thoughts from the night before like I'd said I would.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Funny enough, I kept thinking you were the C1 kill rather than the exe. It's also weird in that context due to my pointing out in dead spec you were really obviously Village - the only way you die D1 is if everyone's sleeping on the exe or if the game is full of returnees and new players, which, sorry to say, was pretty much QF74 in a nutshell. Less so here though, given the game comp.

To be fair, I think it was in-part because I was a gremlin and voted on them--I didn't actually think she would get exed day one for it and felt a lil bad after. xD

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

9 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

wait generally gms do what? Lmao usually I just throw RNG at it and tweak it a bit if necessary 

I did that my first few games, but I've been trying the other way, and I like it more.

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Rather than sneak by under the radar, I'm saying the more dangerous play to watch out for is if one member of the Black Ajah just hardcommits to looking insanely Village. Normally, the more Black Ajah someone votes to kill, particularly if they are early voters, the more Village they should be. Same for most mafia games, unless they're throwing a teammate under the bus by voting or suspecting (and then voting them) (bussing.) Because bussing generally makes it appreciably harder to win the game, most mafia players will not immediately and aggressively bus out the gate (it's usually a last resort, and done in a limited way.)

The upshot is that the more Elims/mafia someone votes to kill, the more Village they tend to look.

But there's a slightly perverse incentive to do so here because if they aggressively bus (hellbus) their teammates, they can get trusted and voted as Amrylin Seat, which removes the usual problem with bussing.

Having said all that, the main reason I don't think it's as likely is that it requires a specific type of player to pull off, and hellbussing would require them to more or less commit to an Amrylin PtV (path to victory) over the normal PtV. That requires locking in early when maf teams would probably prefer to keep their options open. The way I see it, I think it's just something to watch out for, but not to overdo worry about and to paranoid about at the last minute. Just be aware we should probably not overcredence on having killed Black Ajah in this game.

Funny enough, I kept thinking you were the C1 kill rather than the exe. It's also weird in that context due to my pointing out in dead spec you were really obviously Village - the only way you die D1 is if everyone's sleeping on the exe or if the game is full of returnees and new players, which, sorry to say, was pretty much QF74 in a nutshell. Less so here though, given the game comp.

A very particular player type? So me and Araris?

[Steeldancer he/him]

For the record: in my document I am currently campaigning for sitter because I think it would be extremely funny if John Steel somehow ended up as Sitter. The idea of a male channeler crossdressing his way into leadership of an entire Ajah completely by accident... Way too funny. 

[Kasimir he/him]

57 minutes ago, xxGaea said:

To be fair, I think it was in-part because I was a gremlin and voted on them--I didn't actually think she would get exed day one for it and felt a lil bad after. xD

RIP

Well, minimally, whatever happens in Jo's Ajah, I'm not a fan of a D1 on Jo, especially not after a very light V read on Jo. I can't control what happens past D1, but at least they can't kill me tonight.

11 minutes ago, The Unknown Flame said:

A very particular player type? So me and Araris?

Tbh I don't even think so. I'm thinking maybe more Drake, with Aman as the actual archtype here. Theoretically me if my E game was better than it is. See, the problem with you/Araris here is you essentially need to campaign for it to go over and I kind of don't think that's where your strengths are. I'm thinking of uber Village lead deepwolf niche - if you are dependent on villagers deciding to push you over (certainly can't be your teammates because you've hellbussed them), then you are dependent on the Village deciding to campaign and not getting distracted - that's not ideal. What you want is the thread control package bundled into the hellbusser, and someone that conceivably could milk the Village cred from the bussing. I do feel you tend to be more passive as an Elim once you feel you've got the trust locked down, so I don't think you'd be quite in the place to do it.

15 hours ago, KelsierApologist said:

On the contrary, in my doc, I’m not fighting for it. I know I’m the only one I can truly v clear, but I also know that I’m, in many ways, not the right person for the job. I wouldn’t make it through the game, or even the first few nights, without being stilled, and getting a seat is more important than being the nomination. I trust my candidate to act with prudence, and, as their doc mate, I can observe and read them in a way others cannot. Finally, if I do suspect they are elims, I will call for them to be stilled, and I will repeat that call, because I feel it is important to do so. I think we should choose the best candidate, and I am not that.

I'm rejecting it, and I don't know how to feel about it, as I do believe that I tend to be pretty easily identifiable when Village, and V!me locked in as Sitter and then pushing for Amrylin is a tough PtV for the Elims to fight against.

But well. Sometimes it do be that way, and winning isn't everything. Either the Village will do it without me, or it won't. C'est la vie. The fact I'm conflicted about it is also part of the problem.

[Terrisman]

Should I take a quiet Ajah as an indication that they’re busy talking on another doc??

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

Should I take a quiet Ajah as an indication that they’re busy talking on another doc??

Depends on who they are. Some people aren't very chatty in the doc. Not saying this as 'out your Ajah-mates', but saying this as 'this is something you're gonna have to determine for yourself.'

Can't deny I like Terris's proactiveness though, despite also being ? a little  

[Ashbringer he/him]

I'd note "quiet in doc but actively chatting in Thread" as suspect. Or if you know the player likes to chat in Docs / conversations while around, that's also somewhat suspect.

I'm not so chatty this game but that's mostly because I'm just busy with things.

[Terrisman]

Terri didn’t like how she was becoming suspicious of everyone. “I’m normally a really friendly person so why do I suddenly not trust my sisters? We do have to elect a sitter but I am finding that I have reservations. If we pick the wrong person, it’s not just us that’s in trouble. The entire world is doomed.”

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Useful inspirational material for those preparing to become the Watcher of the Seals:

Spoiler

 

 

[Mark IV he/him]

Checking in - still catching up on the thread, only halfway through. I will post my full thoughts once I'm done, but I'm not completely for an Ajah claim right now (I assume that discussion hasn't been settled yet past what I've read ).

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

You know those Black Ajah? I don't believe they exist  

[|TJ| he/him]

15 hours ago, Terrisman said:

@|TJ| was the distribution of Black Ajah random? 

P(lay) A(nd) F(ind) O(ut).

What that the first PAFO of the game? Man, I missed giving out PAFOs :P.

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

P(lay) A(nd) F(ind) O(ut).

What that the first PAFO of the game? Man, I missed giving out PAFOs :P.

...Bhai, how are you feeling?

Edited March 21, 2025 by Kasimir

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

31 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

You know those Black Ajah? I don't believe they exist  

I guess they probably are an Ajah Of Unusual Size...

[|TJ| he/him]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

...Bhai, how are you feeling?

Well, I got to give out a PAFO, so definitely a bit better :P.