Mid-Range Game 3: When Chalklings Attack

[Alvron]

However, my current vote is for Alvron, because he didn't turn up at all last Cycle. I didn't even notice it until looking at the previous thread just now. It was a while ago now, but I seem to recall him being relatively hidden away when he was an Eliminator in LG5, and this feels similar. His game is being set up as well, so I don't think he can claim to be busy.

I can claim to be busy.  In fact I am very busy.  At the moment I am pulling 16 hour days at work and will be for the next couple of days as well. Stupid public holidays.

 

I didn't bother voting last round as I have had very little time to go through all the posts and form any opinions other than my initial suspicions of Rlint.  I did however send in my orders.

[Kasimir]

So I'm back, my shoulder still hurts despite all the painkillers and muscle relaxants, and if anyone has any tips about what to do about that sort of thing, could you throw 'em at me in a PM or something, because this is starting to annoy me big-time.
 

Ok then. I actually am the Sentry. I revealed that in an effort to force the Forgotten's Hand. I was hoping they'd target me in case Wyrm removed his vote which he did, wasting their Kill. That didn't work, which I'm fine with, since I'm left alive.

First things first, I simply don't understand how that wastes a Forgotten Kill. Please explain it to me.

With regard to what King said, that we can explain Aonar’s death and Joe’s survival in terms of the Forgotten deciding not to go for wild chalkling kills might make sense in that it can explain our current data, but to me, its weakness is that it leaves open a big glaring question: why not? Joe presented them what must surely be a tempting target: the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone. By taking down a Sentry, who affords the camp a passive +1 defense bonus as long as he’s not dead, and who can potentially ward the camp, they’ve not just taken down a Rithmatist, but they’d have struck a huge blow to the camp’s defense.

So as far as it looks to me, they had a tactical advantage to be gained from killing Joe, and if they could afford to hit Aonar with a LoV, then they could surely have done the same to Joe, if they were worried he was attempting to bait a kill. So why didn’t they?

One solution would be Joe’s being a Forgotten. But I’m not willing to put too much credence to it at this point, because I don’t think Joe’s behaviour is consistent with that of an ostensible Forgotten. Basically, if he were trying to pull a Bartbug, he’s not really doing it right.

The other possibilities include: concern about Aonar possibly having extra Rithmatic lines (this happened late in the cycle; the coordination needed to LoV and kill Aonar--if the write-up is to be trusted as an indication of what happened--seems to indicate that it probably wasn’t the case), and Aonar’s opposite number deciding to execute him for fear of discovery, except we already know that Aonar’s opposite is Chase, who was lynched and discovered innocent. We could perhaps look at who Aonar flagged besides Ash: perhaps the fear was that Aonar was on to something. Really, the easiest answer would be that they were more worried about Aonar, but that does lead to the uncomfortable contrastive question: why Aonar than Joe when all strategic indicators point otherwise?
 
The upshot is that although I'm not making much sense out of the kill, I think Joe should keep using LoFs to protect himself. At the moment, it would take more to convince me that he's not a Forgotten, and therefore if he's not a Forgotten, then I have some weak reason to believe he's not lying about being a Sentry (he might, for instance, have decided to pretend to be a Gunner try to draw a kill and leave the real Sentry alive.) And as I've mentioned, tactical considerations suggest we at least make it difficult for the Forgotten to kill Joe, as his being alive gives us an automatic +2 to defense.
 
A more fruitful line of inquiry is for us to look at where our potential Forgotten would have to be. Our current problem with regard to locating them is we don't know how many people followed Maili's plan (I certainly didn't, as I mentioned previously, I threw up an early LoW because I wasn't online again until after the cycle), and Ash did something else on Cycle One as well. And then we have Araris's plan, which certainly isn't incompatible with Maili's, and Gamma's plan, which was "everyone who hasn't Warded, do it today". In between who is following which plan (Gamma mentioned in his post that he'd be following his plan, or that's the way I read it), I think narrowing down on who our Forgotten are just got more difficult. If they're following a different plan, then it seems as though their partner would either have to be following a different plan as well, not an Artist, or a Forgotten too.
 
(I do have more to suggest in this regard, and I'll be back online when I get home, which will be in a few hours.)

 

 

 

[Lightsworn Panda]

First things first, I simply don't understand how that wastes a Forgotten Kill. Please explain it to me.

 

I don't understand how you're wasting an Eliminator Kill either, Joe. Please explain.

 

 

With regard to what King said, that we can explain Aonar’s death and Joe’s survival in terms of the Forgotten deciding not to go for wild chalkling kills might make sense in that it can explain our current data, but to me, its weakness is that it leaves open a big glaring question: why not? Joe presented them what must surely be a tempting target: the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone. By taking down a Sentry, who affords the camp a passive +1 defense bonus as long as he’s not dead, and who can potentially ward the camp, they’ve not just taken down a Rithmatist, but they’d have struck a huge blow to the camp’s defense.

So as far as it looks to me, they had a tactical advantage to be gained from killing Joe, and if they could afford to hit Aonar with a LoV, then they could surely have done the same to Joe, if they were worried he was attempting to bait a kill. So why didn’t they?

One solution would be Joe’s being a Forgotten. But I’m not willing to put too much credence to it at this point, because I don’t think Joe’s behaviour is consistent with that of an ostensible Forgotten. Basically, if he were trying to pull a Bartbug, he’s not really doing it right.

 

The Eliminators could be trying to pull the old let-the-Villagers-lynch-the-unkilled-target trick. However, considering how Joe had a rather important role, then I'm inclined to believe that Aonar was actually warming up on something.

 

I'm getting a bit concerned about the number of dead Rithmatists there are. I'm guessing there's about 12-13 Rithmatists in this game, and about a third of them are already dead. Wild chalking kills will most likely start popping up in a few days, and before soon the Warding system will become useless. We need to end this game soon.

 

Ash, you are semi-cleared to me, since you were defending Chase before she died. Of course, you just be protecting her to make yourself seem less like an Eliminator.

 

Araris. You've been under the radar for quite some time. Care to join us?

 

Edit: Jump in a hole and die, Colour Editor

Edited October 26, 2014 by Lightsworn Panda

[Wyrmhero]

Thank you Alvron. Hope it gets a bit easier for you soon then.

 

I will do what you didn't do in your post and suggestions of suspicion, and put a vote on Tulir, but not for any reason other than provoking discussion from him. It's been almost a full day since the Cycle started, and we haven't heard from Tulir, Twei, Gamma, Araris or Ashiok. That's half the players still in the game, which is far too much in my opinion.

 

Kas and Jain do bring up good points about why Joel should have been targeted last Cycle with the kill. We are getting into dangerous waters with regards to the number of people able to use Lines of Warding, and it is possible that the death of a Sentry could tip us over the edge there. Losing a person each Cycle in an unblockable manner would hurt us a lot at this point. But that just muddies the waters even further. Why wouldn't they do this if it was so useful? Anyone else have any thoughts on that?

[twelfthrootoftwo]

The Forgotten may not have seen an immediate gain in killing a Sentry. With an information advantage, they should be able to figure out whether they could get a chalking kill this cycle. If not, there's no advantage to killing Joe last cycle as opposed to this, since we're using a maximum Line of Warding strategy so no extra resources would be lost. And so on. At that point, it becomes a choice between other factors, and Aonar did hint at having access to Advanced Rithmatics. (...Why? It seems too obvious to be an acknowledgement to the sender.)

 

If the split is 7:3 (ignoring the unlikely possibility of 3 starting Forgotten), then the Forgotten have a ~50% chance (depending on how they are distributed between the two warding groups) of being able to force one chalking kill with Lines of Vigour. If that were to expose one of their members, I can certainly see that being an undesirable exchange.

 

Also, I note a gendered pronoun for the killer. Unfortunately it gets us nowhere, since we lynched the only female character.

[Kasimir]

Back. Now, I suggest we go over the patterns of the kills again, in order to try and work out our Eliminators.

 

Cycle One: Dui [Group 2] was lynched, and Meta [Group 2] was killed. The write-up suggests that Dui executed Meta and was, in turn, executed. We have no suggestion as to what Team Evil was doing. Notable as well is no significant resistance to Dui's being lynched. Meta has previously mentioned that Eliminators may be carefully hiding in those votes, but I think we've just about long exhausted the usefulness of that line of thought.

 

Cycle Two: No one was lynched, and Maili [Group 1] was killed. The write-up suggests that Maili was straightforwardly killed (by which I mean that if we take the write-up at its word, then there doesn't seem to be any other lines involved in his death.)

 

Cycle Three: Chase [Group 2] was lynched and Aonar [Group 1] was killed. Most notable for this kill, we see that Aonar put up a Line of Forbiddance, and so it seems likely that the Forgotten hit him with a Line of Vigor. This is the first kill in which we actually notice the coordinated action of two Forgotten. Just to recap: Group 2 was on Making, and Group 1 was on Warding.

 

So the question is: what does the appearance of the first LoV-kill combination tell us? As Jain mentioned, and I take that point under advisement, we may want to take a brief look at who Aonar suspected, in case he was on to something. Aonar did suspect Ash, but he phrased that suspicion very carefully: Chase's being a Forgotten makes probable that Ash is a Forgotten and vice versa. As such, I don't think that connection helps us here. Who else did Aonar suspect? Well, he noted that he was also suspicious of Rlint. But he's already been called out once at this point, and I'm reluctant to stack a second vote on someone who hasn't had the opportunity to respond to the first. I may change this based on extenuating circumstances later on. I think the cost of a mislynch could be very high for us, because we could potentially open ourselves to a second (wild chalkling) kill. What we cannot afford is a wild chalkling kill and a mislynch, because that would put us 4-3, at which point our only hope would be to mass-LoF and that would just extend things by one cycle.

 

It feels a lot like we're retreading the same old lines of thought and arguing over the same old pieces of data. I think at some point, we're going to have to open up discussion again and reassess, or risk just going around in futile circles. With that in mind, I'll put a vote on Roddy to see if we can get a full set of people discussing this time.

Edit: Colour-change because I'm a doofus who missed that Joe had redded Ash already, and thought that no one had yet decided to prod Ash.

Edited October 26, 2014 by Kasimir

[Tulir]

Ok, so Joel was rising on my list of suspicions, but him claiming to be a Sentry lowers it a bit.  I currently think Dig is one of the most likely suspects in my mind, despite being the only vote on the Forgotten kill.

Edited October 27, 2014 by Tulir

[A Joe in the Bush]

First things first, I simply don't understand how that wastes a Forgotten Kill. Please explain it to me.

 

I don't understand how you're wasting an Eliminator Kill either, Joe. Please explain.

At the Time of my Reveal, I was set to be Lynched. I assumed that I would get lynched, since revealing that I was a Sentry is a Suspicious Move. So I was hoping that the Forgotten would be on ealy, and change their target to me, knowing that others (Like Wyrm) would be on later, and could retract their Vote, (Which He did). So I saw the small possibility of them wasting a kill by Targeting the Guy who was also being Lynched. It was a small hope, but I figured it would be a Silver lining in my being Lynched.

 

And I would like to propose a Change to the LoW Plan. Lines of Vigor Cancel all Actions except for othe Lines of Vigor. So instead of having the 2nd group make Lines of Making, we have them Make Lines of Vigor, Targeting the Person Below them in their group. This ensures That the only Actions being done are the Lines of Warding in the other group, allowing us to Identify which group the Killer was in. Unless the Killer has another Forgotten directly Above them. Thoughts?

[Alvron]

After finally going through the last couple of cycles, nothing came up that changes my feeling about Rlint, so that's where my vote goes at moment.

 

I doubt that Joel is evil again.  During LG8, I got a good read on his evil style and it feels different in this game.  Feels more like his LG6 style in which he was on team good.

 

Roddy is alot quietier than normal this round.  He has popped in a couple of times but hasn't posted anything despite having a vote on him.

[Wyrmhero]

If I chose to vote for someone, I am either going to vote for someone with no votes, or as the tiebreaker. Well, I already am the tiebreaker. I'd really like to have more information at hand here, but the Cycle ends in about four hours, and considering the timezone issue, I don't think I will get anything new to go on.

 

Of the three current choices up for the lynch, only Tulir has come online and defended himself, but I'm not satisfied with his defence. No reasoning given for a vote like that sparks me as very strange, particularly this late in the game. Why is Gamma suspicious to you, Tulir? Just because he's inactive? Or is there really no reason at all?

 

And I would like to propose a Change to the LoW Plan. Lines of Vigor Cancel all Actions except for othe Lines of Vigor. So instead of having the 2nd group make Lines of Making, we have them Make Lines of Vigor, Targeting the Person Below them in their group. This ensures That the only Actions being done are the Lines of Warding in the other group, allowing us to Identify which group the Killer was in. Unless the Killer has another Forgotten directly Above them. Thoughts?

 

There are a few flaws in this plan. In order of increasing importance:

• Firstly, it's a bit too late in the Cycle for us to switch to that plan, though it could certainly be used tomorrow.
• Secondly, all it takes for things to go wrong is someone not being a Rithmatist and therefore unable to check on the next person to muddle things a bit. By your suggestion, we'd all be looking at the other group for the killer instead of the actual one.
• Thirdly, there's no reason for the Forgotten to use Lines of Warding with this plan. It just gives the Forgotten free reign when they're meant to be using Lines of Warding.

The plan doesn't really work, sadly. We need the Lines of Making in order to ensure that the other half isn't doing the kill, but all that suggests is that the kill is coming from the half using the Lines of Warding rather than Vigor.

[A Joe in the Bush]

There are a few flaws in this plan. In order of increasing importance:

• Firstly, it's a bit too late in the Cycle for us to switch to that plan, though it could certainly be used tomorrow.
• Secondly, all it takes for things to go wrong is someone not being a Rithmatist and therefore unable to check on the next person to muddle things a bit. By your suggestion, we'd all be looking at the other group for the killer instead of the actual one.
• Thirdly, there's no reason for the Forgotten to use Lines of Warding with this plan. It just gives the Forgotten free reign when they're meant to be using Lines of Warding.

The plan doesn't really work, sadly. We need the Lines of Making in order to ensure that the other half isn't doing the kill, but all that suggests is that the kill is coming from the half using the Lines of Warding rather than Vigor.

 

Your First point: Yes, I hadn't really expected to switch this time.

 

Your Second Point: That is unfortunately Correct. I Hadn't thought of that.

 

Your Third Point: There's no reason for the Forgotten to make Lines of Warding Now. Without people actually reporting on what their Terget did, people can do whatever.

[Sart]

     Rlint wasn't worried. Although he wasn't a Rithmatist, he was a highly trained police-man. He knew how to handle his own in a fight, and he wasn't afraid to go down swinging. He had been assigned to this platoon to keep the Rithmatists' egos in check. He would effectively coordinate them, making sure that they were safe. He had failed at that mission. Still, he wasn't completely useless. He had learned of advanced Rithmatic lines. They didn't make any sense to him, but he knew about them, and he had finally gotten around to teaching someone else about them. He smiled, and decided to take a nap. Unfortunately, the camp was getting angry at him. Wyatt and Ronald burst into his tent. Demanding him to answer for his crimes, bleary eyed, Rlint tried to fight them off, but one of them grabbed Rlint's gun and shot him, once, twice, three times. They were disgusted with themselves afterwards, and hauled the body to Dig.
    Meanwhile, Dig had been busy. The number of dead bodies kept piling up. Digging graves wasn't very fun. He had even more work to do now, since Rlint had been shot. What was wrong with them? Dig had decided that finding out who was evil generally led to more evil. Digging trenches, on the other hand, wasn't evil, and so he must be good. He smiled at his simplistic thought, and started on the next grave. He didn't realize it was going to be a double grave though. The Forgotten took one of Dig's shovels and whacked him into the grave. A light covering of dirt concealed the body, as the evil man walked away. He smiled. The camp was doomed, and they couldn't do anything to stop it.

Rlint was a Non-Rithmatist.

Dig was a Rithmatist.

Aaron Roddy: Joel (1)
Rlint: Alvron, Wyatt (2)
Jain: Tavi (1)

Player List:

• (The Only Joe) Joel, a Long time soldier at Nebrask
• (Araris Valerian) Tavi, a troublesome, but bright young man.
• (Alvron) Ronald, a Short man with White hair and piercing blue eyes.
• (AonarFaileas) Aaron, a Graduate of Académie de Montréal. Rithmatist
• (Tulir) Rlint, a Policeman. Non-Rithmatist
• (Mailliw73) Will, a Blonde Male. Rithmatist
• (Lightsworn Panda) Jain, a new Soldier.
• (Wyrmhero) Wyatt, a Senior Soldier
• (Elend'sSecondCousin) Dui, a JoSeun Immigrant who eats chalk. Forgotten
• (Kasimir) Samuel Kessen, a man who hates the JoSeun way of life.
• (Gamma Fiend) Dig, a Digger. Rithmatist
• (pir2h) Chase Tearing, a Rithamantic Murderer. Rithmatist
• (Metacognition) Matt, a man seen through the eyes of others. Artist
• (Twelvethrootoftwo) Tory Farth, a man who exists
• (Ashiok) Aaron Roddy, A Baseball Coach

This cycle will end at 9:00 AM Central Time on Wednesday.

Edited October 27, 2014 by a smart guy

[A Joe in the Bush]

​I'm beginning to Think I'm still alive because I'm completely Wrong about my Suspicions, one of which I mentioned was Gamma. As such, I'm just going to Assume that Ashiok and Jain are innocent, and I know I am, giving me a list of 5 names, 3 of which are Forgotten.

 

• (Araris Valerian) Tavi, a troublesome, but bright young man.
• (Alvron) Ronald, a Short man with White hair and piercing blue eyes.
• (Wyrmhero) Wyatt, a Senior Soldier
• (Kasimir) Samuel Kessen, a man who hates the JoSeun way of life.
• (Twelvethrootoftwo) Tory Farth, a man who exists

Of those three, Twelvethroot, Alvron and Araris have been the most suspicious, being Quieter than normal, and overall not proposing anything much. So For now, I will vote for Alvron. I'm in school right now, so I don't have much time to gather Evidence, So i'll do that when I get home tonight.

Edited October 28, 2014 by The Only Joe

[Wyrmhero]

Can we have the votes for last Cycle please, Smart?

 

So it looks like I was wrong about Tulir, which is annoying at this stage in the game. Makes me wonder why he didn't say his Role though. Maybe he just thought he wouldn't believe him, I guess. We lost Gamma as well, but at least we've only lost one Rithmatist this Cycle - though small comfort that is. With our 'Sentry' (sorry, I'm still not able to 100% believe you, Joel. Call it healthy paranoia) still alive, we might be okay this Cycle. It is possible that we need to lynch the right guy or lose though, so we need people to actually contribute.

 

I think we can safely come to the conclusion that the Forgotten are taking out the more experienced players first. So the actual deaths themselves aren't too important, but the order could be.

• Meta was first. I've said that was unsurprising, as he's a good and dangerous player for either side to have. I don't think that tells us too much.
• Will made a plan for us to follow and was then bumped off. This does suggest that the Forgotten didn't want the village to have a plan, or someone in charge at the very least. There is the possibility that one of them wanted to take over planning, which would point towards Joel.
• Aonar posted about his new Rithmatic Lines and was then killed. I am doubtful that these two facts are anything more than a coincidence though, considering he posted it late in the Cycle, and he had to be hit by both a Line of Vigor and the kill at the same time. It could suggest that the Forgotten killed him while his logic pointed towards Ashiok being innocent, but that may be a bit too convoluted a plot to have happened.
• Gamma's death though doesn't make too much sense to me. He argued against a few plans and voted for inactives for the most part. I would have suspected someone who has interacted with him before, such as Kas, except his death was rather late in the game, and I think that would have happened much earlier on if Kas was an Eliminator.

For my part this Cycle, I want to collect as much information as possible, so we can figure things out. We're not quite in lynch-or-lose yet, but we will be next Cycle if things go badly for us. Last Cycle, we heard nothing from Ashiok or Araris, and considering how well things seem to be going for the Forgotten, it does make me wonder if they've decided to just be hidden in the shadows, letting us do their work for them. I will vote for Araris, for now, and see what he says.

Edited October 27, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Kasimir]

My timezone isn't a great one, and I'm currently working on a short paper on epistemic authority, so I'll try and keep this just as short and pop in tomorrow after class ends.

 

A few things: first, King: I'm not really sure losing a Non-Rithmatist is much comfort, as sure, we have slightly less reason to worry that the camp's defense will be compromised by one less Line of Warding, but all the same, it just makes things even trickier for us since all the Forgotten seem to be Rithmatists (if I've been understanding the rules correctly). Would've been much easier to adjudicate a role-claim of Non-Rithmatist, I believe :/

 

Second, I'm not too fond of drawing player-connections as a means of anything more than stimulating discussion, because when you have a sample size largely consisting of players who've played upwards of four or five games (Chase, and Dui being notable exceptions to this, although I suspect we could really extend this description to (potentially) Araris)--it's not really meaningful to talk about player-connections in anything short of the sense of actual, concrete friendships: we've been around and in enough games to have been on the same and different sides at various points. In short, I'm suggesting that we've been around enough to be promiscuous about our connections, so I'm not really sure it is meaningful or very helpful to us to be focusing on prior existing relationships between players with the exception of concrete, live friendships. And to clarify the useful sense of concrete friendships I'm talking about--I'm referring to friendships that could actually causally lead to a decision to kill another player: so for instance, Cessie's deciding to convert Wilson because they had a live friendship that would make in-person deception problematic.

 

Third, I'm wondering if we're reading a little too much into Aonar's death--he, too, could just as easily fit the category of being a "good and dangerous player for either side to have." I can't make sense of Gamma's death either, but he was pretty inactive this game. But I do have a hypothesis: don't forget that Artists and Non-Rithmatists would pose a certain amount of threat and difficulty to the Forgotten, simply in virtue of their roles. My suggestion/hypothesis is that the Forgotten were perhaps trying to hunt for either of these particular player roles, and were fishing blindly among the inactive players, under the operating assumption that someone with either role was trying to pass off as inactive. (Even though it seems they haven't at all been motivated to take out our Sentry, which does make you wonder about assumptions we've been making.) So Gamma's death would mark the approximate turning point from going after players considered dangerous to something else taking priority: finding dangerous roles in the inactives. I'll take a closer look once I'm properly done/back, though.

 

Edit: colour.

Edited October 27, 2014 by Kasimir

[Lightsworn Panda]

I think I may have found what Aonar was warming up to.

 

On Cycle 3, Aonar said 

 

Actually, Ash, creating a Line of Warding/Forbiddance is a great idea for the Forgotten, if they don't think they can get away with forcing a wild chalkling kill. It prevents them from being discovered by rithmatists, like yourself, who are drawing chalklings. If fact, if I were the Forgotten, I would probably be alternating kills with Lines of Forbiddance, assuming that there are only two left (and the same player cannot make consecutive kills). This would still apply the first cycle, seeing how Dui had gone inactive.

 

Given that you are one of my top suspects at the moment, I find this rather weak defence more than a little suspect as well.

 

Perhaps the even better question, that I'm surprised no one has bothered asking, is this: why did you target Chase? You shouldn't have had anything return from your chalkling, whether she had been a Forgotten using Vigor/Killing, or a rithmatist using Making. That means you had absolutely no motivation for Seeking her, other than "finding her suspicious." When you apply this in context and realize that you wouldn't have learned anything from your action, this seems incredibly silly. In fact, an non-standard result would only seem to confirm Chase's innocence, seeing how LoW/F aren't useful to the Forgotten the first cycle. 

 

This leaves us with three options. Either, A) You're an Artist, B, you're a Forgotten, or C) you didn't read the rules for Lines of Making. Right at the moment, I'm guessing Forgotten. However, Chase has more votes, and if she's a Forgotten, you probably are, and vice versa, so that vote works for me. Rlint.

 

Right after that, Aonar was killed. Earlier on, he had expressed similar feelings of suspicion to Ashiok. I find that a tad suspicious.

 

However, right now, I'm more inclined to vote for Araris. He didn't pop in to post, even after I voted for him. Going inactive is a common Eliminator tactic. Also, I think it'd be a little unfair and unbalanced if the Eliminator team had a newbie and an erratic member, so Ashiok probably isn't on the Eliminator team.

 

Alvron and Twei are next on my list of suspicions. Twei, you've been also very under the radar recently.

[Ashiok]

@Jain: I do believe that the roles were RNG'd, and I happen to find that offensive. Oh yeah. Sad but true, but C was the reason for what Aonar said.

 

Wait... Does sentry get to do rithmatics? If so, I have to wonder why the eliminators didn't snap to kill Joel. Hmm... It would take out a rithmatist and a free LoW each night for one kill. Hmm.

 

Suspicion wise... The two easiest places to hide are complete inactivity and leading the pack. I don't mean to call Wyrm out right now, just some food for thought. If the question is between Araris, Twei, and Alv, I'd have to go with Alv. Just a gut feeling and the fact that Jain AND Wyrm have poke votes on Araris.

[Lightsworn Panda]

@Jain: I do believe that the roles were RNG'd, and I happen to find that offensive. Oh yeah. Sad but true, but C was the reason for what Aonar said.

 

Wait... Does sentry get to do rithmatics? If so, I have to wonder why the eliminators didn't snap to kill Joel. Hmm... It would take out a rithmatist and a free LoW each night for one kill. Hmm.

 

Suspicion wise... The two easiest places to hide are complete inactivity and leading the pack. I don't mean to call Wyrm out right now, just some food for thought. If the question is between Araris, Twei, and Alv, I'd have to go with Alv. Just a gut feeling and the fact that Jain AND Wyrm have poke votes on Araris.

 

If you're trying to plant seeds of doubt, Ashiok, you're doing it wrong.

 

Also, please be a bit more direct with your opinion. Don't be vague and "food for thought"-ish. We're running out of time and players. Helpful and game-changing decisions are needed.

 

Our "poke votes" are attempts to bring Araris out, and so far he's unresponsive. 

 

Also, I voted for Tavi, not te other way round. Could you please change it in the write-up, Satrams?   

 

Edit: Grammar

Edited October 27, 2014 by Lightsworn Panda

[A Joe in the Bush]

Yeah, I just decided that Ashiok and Jain were innocent, but Ashiok, you just jumped all the way to practicly Confirmed Forgotten. You're also defending Araris, a Player I still Suspect. As such, I'm retracting my Vote of Alvron, and putting back on you, Ashiok If there's a possible Tie, or nobody else votes for you, I'll switch to Araris. (Not a vote). Since He's one of my three main Suspects.

 

Huh. My three main Suspects all have 'A' Names.

 

@Jain. Regardless of your Alignment. I'd like to Formally Congratulate, and thank you. You've been a much better player overall recently, acrtively helping the Town, instead of chulling around like you used to. Have an Upvote.

Edited October 29, 2014 by The Only Joe

[Ashiok]

Not defending Araris, just pointing out something that was pointed out against me a couple games ago under similar circumstances. I honestly have no idea what y'all want me to do. You want me to draw conclusions, then accuse me of "planting the seeds of doubt" when I do. As with all of the games so far, I have difficulty making up my mind, so I throw all the info/suspicions I have out there and see how they are used.

 

Also, if I was Forgotten, Semi-inactivity would be a pretty good cover for me. Just saying. Me coming out with suspicions as a forgotten would just be stupid. 

 

Remember MR2? When I had information, I used it to find the problem people. In other games, where I have less concrete information, I hedge around actually placing votes (unless told to do so.) If I was Forgotten, I wouldn't be hedging around. I would be certain about all the votes I made.

 

TL;DR: Not forgotten, Not defending Araris, Don't have any concrete info. That's all.

[Araris Valerian]

Hey everyone, I was crazy busy this weekend and popped on for just a minute but didn't notice that I got voted for or really have time to make a post. Unfortunately, I'm still fairly busy, but lets see what I can come up with. I did propose the first plan for dealing with the lines of warding and such, but that is behind us now. Also, I am beginning to doubt that there are 3 forgotten left, since they could fairly easily use lines of vigor to cause a chalkling kill, at least how I see it, and with us making bad guesses, another 3 villagers dead and the game is over. We could try and test for how many there are, but its a little late for that and it would be pretty risky. I just had a double take there, the writeup says I voted for Jain, but it should be the other way around. Anywho, I think that I agree with Jain that Ashiok was a bit suspicious, but I don't really have any suspicions of my own right now so I'll put a vote on Tory Farth, and pop back in after an hour or two to see what happens.

 

Ash, I saw you just posted there, and I agree, although I'm not sure how it really applies to defending (or not) me, but thanks anyway.

Edited October 29, 2014 by Araris Valerian

[Lightsworn Panda]

Not defending Araris, just pointing out something that was pointed out against me a couple games ago under similar circumstances. I honestly have no idea what y'all want me to do. You want me to draw conclusions, then accuse me of "planting the seeds of doubt" when I do. As with all of the games so far, I have difficulty making up my mind, so I throw all the info/suspicions I have out there and see how they are used.

 

Also, if I was Forgotten, Semi-inactivity would be a pretty good cover for me. Just saying. Me coming out with suspicions as a forgotten would just be stupid. 

 

Remember MR2? When I had information, I used it to find the problem people. In other games, where I have less concrete information, I hedge around actually placing votes (unless told to do so.) If I was Forgotten, I wouldn't be hedging around. I would be certain about all the votes I made.

 

TL;DR: Not forgotten, Not defending Araris, Don't have any concrete info. That's all.

 

 

Wait... Does sentry get to do rithmatics? If so, I have to wonder why the eliminators didn't snap to kill Joel. Hmm... It would take out a rithmatist and a free LoW each night for one kill. Hmm.

 

An example of a seed of doubt. You don't make a conclusion, yet you seem to be trying to make ourselves doubt each other.

 

Ash, a good conclusion is a post that is backed up with some evidence, and a firm belief in what you are saying. Read through the past cycles extensively to find clues and such.

[Ashiok]

Oh. got it. So something like: I'm still suspicious of Joe because killing him would make it ten times easier for the forgotten to kill us, but they haven't killed him yet. But killing him wouldn't be productive right now because if he IS the sentry, then we're not in such good shape.

 

No matter how I crunch the numbers, the odds are that we get hit by a chalkling kill tonight. If, instead, we all used forbiddance (assuming three forgotten) one forgotten vigors their target, one kills the target, and one vigors somebody else. In a scenario where everybody but two people and the forgotten were protected, would one of those two people instantly get killed by the chalklings? Or could chalklings try to hit one of the protected people? Would that be shown in the write-up?

Did that scenario make any sense?

 

TL;DR: Chalklings are coming, maybe use forbiddance? Unless that just affords forgotten two targeted kills as opposed to one.

[Sart]

Alright, there appears to be some confusion about the Wild Chalkling kill. Let me clear that up.

 

• If a wild chalkling attack happens, I will use a random number generator to determine the target of the attack. The Forgotten do not get to choose who is targeted for it.
• If the number that comes up is a Forgotten or the Sentry, the kill does not go through, and the camp will mysteriously survive the attack. However, if a normal player/Rithmatist is targeted, they will be killed, even if they put up a Line of Forbiddance.
• The Line of Forbiddance blocks all other kills, such as Forgotten kills, Lines of Revocation, and the lynch vote.

I hope that clears up any confusion about a Chalkling attack. Also, please note that all roles have access to Rithmatic lines, except for the non-Rithmatist. If you have any other questions, feel free to ask them in the thread.

[A Joe in the Bush]

If I die tonight, will my Passive Defensive Bonus still count towards the Camp's defense?

 

EDIT: '?' not '.'

Edited October 28, 2014 by The Only Joe