Mid-Range Game 3: When Chalklings Attack

[Alvron]

• The Line of Forbiddance blocks all other kills, such as Forgotten kills, Lines of Revocation, and the lynch vote.

​So if I understand it correctly, then anyone we try to lynch can protect themselves with a Line of Forbiddance and will survive.  I guess that means we will have to start hitting the lynchee with a Line of Vigor in order to ensure that any Forgotten we do manage to find is killed.

Edited October 28, 2014 by Alvron

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Jain, Aonar’s logic in that post was exclusive – either Ash and Chase were both Forgotten, or neither were. The fact that Chase was lynched, and proven innocent, would therefore (by that logic) mean Ash is also innocent. If Aonar did get killed for that post, it could indicate two things:  Ash is a Forgotten, and Aonar’s other reasons were enough to want him silenced, or Ash is not a Forgotten, and the real Forgotten wanted to frame him. But I would trend towards the argument that Aonar is just too dangerous as a Villager to leave alive for long.

 

So the chalking kill can target the Forgotten or Sentry, but nothing will happen. Taking 3 remaining Forgotten and Joe actually being a Sentry, there's only a 50% chance someone will actually die.

 

At the moment, I'm inclined to trust Ashiok, mostly because I don't see a reason for Line of Making Chase in the first cycle. (Chase did confirm using a Line of Warding, so we know Ashiok wasn’t bluffing there.) I’m most suspicious of Ronald – you’re right about the Line of Vigour on the lynch target, but is there anything else you have to add to the discussion?

[Lightsworn Panda]

 

Jain, Aonar’s logic in that post was exclusive – either Ash and Chase were both Forgotten, or neither were. The fact that Chase was lynched, and proven innocent, would therefore (by that logic) mean Ash is also innocent. If Aonar did get killed for that post, it could indicate two things:  Ash is a Forgotten, and Aonar’s other reasons were enough to want him silenced, or Ash is not a Forgotten, and the real Forgotten wanted to frame him. But I would trend towards the argument that Aonar is just too dangerous as a Villager to leave alive for long.

 

 

I never said I was particularly suspicious of Ashiok. In my post, I said:

 

. Also, I think it'd be a little unfair and unbalanced if the Eliminator team had a newbie and an erratic member, so Ashiok probably isn't on the Eliminator team.

 

Am I the only person that thinks there's only 2 Eliminators left? We only have 15 players in this game, and 20% of that is 3. Plus, there aren't many kill actions available to the Villagers this game.

 

Joe, Thanks for the compliment.   

 

Edit: WHY COLOUR EDITOR WHY!?

Edited October 28, 2014 by Lightsworn Panda

[Araris Valerian]

I agree with you Jain, at least to some extent. Once this is all over I will be interested to see what happened to all of the non-rithmatists, since we haven't had any kills yet outside the lynches and forgotten.

[Wyrmhero]

Glad we had some proper discussion overnight, to draw people out. Ashiok is certainly looking a heck of a lot more suspicious now. I'm not sure how useful using a Line of Forbiddance is though, considering if everyone did that, we would definitely invite the Chalking kill. It could be worth taking that risk though. At the very least, it's probably worth everyone who isn't on Warding duty using it. Regardless though, it's a bit of a relief to know that the Wild Chalking kill has a decent chance of not actually getting through (but not one we can rely on).

 

However, if the person we lynch uses it, then it could just set us back another day, like it did with Kal in QF2. So I would agree with Alvron's suggestion to Line of Vigor that person. If they're a Forgotten, then we need the kill, either to reduce their numbers late in the game, or to get the information for the definitely difficult next day. Hopefully someone has Advanced Rithmatics and can help us prevent a sticky situation.

 

Having said that, we still need information today. We need to get as much as possible to make the lynch, so while it might certainly be Ashiok, that doesn't mean we should stop searching there. I would like to draw out some more discussion from Araris. Do you really not have any suspicions this late in the game? That does seem strange to me, and in fact only makes you more suspicious in my eyes.

[Kasimir]

I'm back, and I'm mostly pointing out some assumptions that have caught my eye. First, this is something that occurred to me mid-day and I've been considering it up to the point I got home. We know the Forgotten obviously haven't been keen on playing the Line of Vigor game. Recall that according to the write-up, there seems to have been only one Line of Vigor in operation, and that was on Cycle Three, when Aonar was killed. No one else has come forward as being hit by a Line of Vigor--and I am presuming/hoping that means that there have been no Lines of Vigor used at all. (Which was, to me, a puzzle--why did we only see the unblockable kill for Aonar?)

But that's the point, isn't it? I suspect that means the Forgotten have been playing along with our roster. And I suspect that means that we now don't quite know if the camp is vulnerable. (Even though I think that two more Non-Rithmatists existing would be an extremely weird possibility.) Because if they've been buffing our Warding numbers all this while, then there could be a hole in our Wards we don't even know of. In which case we can't just factor in getting hit by a Line of Vigor, but the possibility that there are less people Warding on a given period than we even know of.

So a brief caution here is that the odds of a Wild Chalkling kill might be even higher than we think. Second, I would recommend that whoever casts the Line of Vigor come from the set of people who can't Ward tonight, in order to not cost us a defender. In addition, whoever who can Ward, please do so. We need this badly.

Second: I'm not sure I'm particularly convinced by suggestions that using a Line of Making is something an Eliminator wouldn't do. I do think that Gamma died because the Forgotten were hunting for Non-Rithmatists and Artists among the inactive players, thinking that they were trying to lie low. And using a Line of Making early on would be a rather useful way of seeing if someone could possibly be a Non-Rithmatist and therefore a target.

Third, I don't think our ideas of what makes a well-balanced Eliminator team have anything to do with how Sart allocated roles. Correct me if I'm wrong, but we generally use a random role generator to do so. As such, worries of internal team dynamics may be well and good as personal heuristics, but I don't think they have a place in argument.

So far, inactivity isn't really a main part of my grounds for suspicion. Mostly because if I were to do so, I'd have to really end up being suspicious of everyone who wasn't Joe, Jain, or King. (Of course, I would rule out myself--Sart's PM would be sufficient for me to rule myself out, but as I previously pointed out (although perhaps not well-phrased) to Joe's invoking this--it does not form accessible justificatory grounds for everyone else excluding me from such a list and this mention therefore has no place in my discussion here.) And then I'd have to rule people out from there, when inactivity itself means a paucity of evidence. Add the fact that paucity of evidence means that when inactivity is your sole grounds for suspicion, you're basically throwing dice, and that explains how I've been trying to approach things with the material we have. (Even if we're not at lynch or die yet, I'm rather keen on avoiding more mislynches. Our window of error is closing.)

I'm not quite sold on Alvron, if only because he was the first to pick up Dui. Sure, he could've done that and then nudged Dui in the Eliminator doc to get on, but that just doesn't ring right to me. I do think that Ash has not come out looking very clean by this point, but at the same time, I suppose I should press on a little further, and see if I can open up something by throwing out a suspicion that's come up for me: I'm not quite sure what to make of Araris--he ususally comes up with all sorts of weird plans, but then again, he's been busy lately, as he mentioned, and I can understand that. He's certainly left that vote on Tory to hang, which is a little strange, as one would expect a Rithmatist's 'poke-vote' to be responsive to evidence--or in the case of the poke-vote, the person pressed actually coming on, attempting to contribute and to talk about their suspicions. It's not as if Araris/Tavi said, "Sorry guys, I can't be on again later, so I'm going to leave this to stand.", having posted some time after. So that's certainly made me raise my eyebrow because it's a cheap way to get in a vote without having to elicit real suspicion. Useful for an Eliminator. What about Tory's response didn't you like, Araris?

[Sart]

If I die tonight, will my Passive Defensive Bonus still count towards the Camp's defense?

 

EDIT: '?' not '.'

The Sentry's bonus occurs at the same time as Lines of Warding. Therefore, if the Sentry dies, his bonus will still apply the cycle that he dies.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Jain might be right, about there only being two Forgotten Left. 4 of 15 would be rather large. So Far the Main suspect is Araris. And we have 8 total Semi-Active players, that means it's 6 to 2. If we can can decide who the other Forgotten probably is, we can Line of Vigor them tonight, blocking their kills, That won't block their Lines of Vigor, but we can have the other four people put up lines of Warding, ensuring that there's no Wild Kill.  

[Wyrmhero]

Jain might be right, about there only being two Forgotten Left. 4 of 15 would be rather large. So Far the Main suspect is Araris. And we have 8 total Semi-Active players, that means it's 6 to 2. If we can can decide who the other Forgotten probably is, we can Line of Vigor them tonight, blocking their kills, That won't block their Lines of Vigor, but we can have the other four people put up lines of Warding, ensuring that there's no Wild Kill.  

 

Well, if there are two, that would be absolutely great. It's a lot easier to find two people who are connected than three - in which case, my suspicions would definitely fall on Araris and Ashiok, considering Ashiok's defence and Araris' briefness as of late. If there are two, then we only need one person to Line of Warding this Cycle to be safe (even if Joel isn't the Sentry, we do have one). That would, presumably, remain the same regardless of whether or not we lynch one, since the Sentry counts for the camp's defence on the Cycle they die too. In this case, we need two defenders to be safe against Lines of Vigor, and either three or four Lines of Vigor to use (I would be surprised if we had just one Non-Rithmatist).

 

However, let's be a little pessimistic here. If there are indeed three, then we need at least two people to Line of Warding this Cycle - Perhaps three, just to be safe against Lines of Vigor. So in this scenario, three people defend, the Forgotten kill someone and possibly use Lines of Vigor on who they think are our defenders. This gives us just two people free, one of whom is probably a Non-Rithmatist, and so just one Line of Vigor.

 

So in the worst-case scenario (which we should definitely plan for, I think), I would suggest that we only have one Line of Vigor spare, unless we want to risk the Wild Chalkling kill. Best case, we overshoot a little, but that's not really a bad thing, considering. The Line of Vigor can't be blocked either, so we could take a guess at who the killer is and try to stop them. But at the same time, what if we were going to lynch an Eliminator, and they block it with a Line of Forbiddance, and we didn't Line of Vigor them? I think it's a gamble either way, to be honest, and I'm not sure which would be better, considering we could just accidentally take out our camp defences if we target the wrong person. What do other people think?

[Alvron]

Vote count:

Ronald (3) Joel, Tory Farth, Roddy, Tavi

Tavi (3) Wyatt, Jain, Samuel Kessen

Roddy (1) Joel,

Tory Farth (0) Tavi

 

 

I’m most suspicious of Ronald – you’re right about the Line of Vigour on the lynch target, but is there anything else you have to add to the discussion?

Nope.  I wish I did have more to contribute but I don't.

 

However I do propose that we use Lines of Vigor on Ashiok, Araris and myself this cycle.  As the top three suspects it makes sense to try and cancel any kills they might make.  Seeing that it looks like Araris will be lynched then I also think that if we have someone with Advanced Rithmatics that they should target either myself or Ashiok with a kill attempt.

 

Just so everyone knows I will be sending a Line of Vigor at Ashiok as he is the only one I have any suspicions of at moment.  But I fully understand if another wants to send one as well.

 

Edit: Updated list

Edited October 29, 2014 by Alvron

[Ashiok]

Well I'd have to say... That plan looks nice in theory. But there are what, eight of us left? Worst case scenario, none of us on the chopping block are forgotten, and in the five others, there are two-three forgotten. I'll do my math with two because I know I'm not one (although it's useless for me to keep saying so because I can't copy-paste the Role-PM). 

 

S1: none of us are forgotten. Each LoV each other, leaving five others to ward (two or three of which are forgotten). We waste a night, somebody dies. This is bad. Almost as likely as S2.

 

S2: One of us is forgotten. That one won't make the night kill, same result. This is also bad. Most likely 

 

S3: Two of us are forgotten. Then it makes sense for the outsiders to LoV, not the inside people. This is unlikely, but would be nice.

 

I hope I'm making sense. Essentially, your plan calls for all the forgotten to be on the chopping block right now. If you're not a forgotten, this plan makes no sense. If you are, not all of your teammates are on the block. Makes more sense for you to be forgotten in this scenario.

 

In conclusion, Ronald, I'm pretty sure you're Forgotten.

[Araris Valerian]

Kas, I'm not quite sure what you mean by what don't I like about Tory's post. Unless I'm way more tired then I think I am, he hadn't shown up when I made that vote. I just now however realized that he has posted since I made that vote, which was its main purpose, so here: Tory Anyway, much of my suspicion was focused on Joe for a while because I was confused as to why he revealed his supposed status as the sentry. However, by now if we had someone else who was the real sentry then they probably would have said something to the rest of us. I currently trust Jain the most, after Joe, largely because he is the only person who brought up that there might be only two forgotten, and I don't know why the forgotten would point something out like that if they knew we were wrong all along. As far as who to lynch tonight, there are, as people have pointed out, 3 targets. I am going to vote for Ronald for the following reasons: Ash made an argument that had some intent to defend me, although it wasn't directed directly toward people who voted for me. Hopefully, that means Ash and I are on the same team, so I am not inclined to vote that direction. I also don't think that using advanced rithmatics at this point would be all that useful, since its really just a shot in the dark. Also, invluding yourslef in the list of people to be targeted doesn't make sense. Regardless of which team you are on, it is harmful to them for you to die, unless you are trying to cover something up, which I can only think of an eliminator doing anyway. So, we are 3 for me and 3 for Ronald, so somebody needs to break the tie that isn't one of us two.

[Ashiok]

Ok, Araris, what you're saying makes no sense. So if you read my recent post, you'll see why his plan benifits the eliminators unless they are all on the chopping block, which they clearly aren't. Also, reasons for pointing out that there might be two forgotten include: Complacency in Lines of Warding, being able to propose a plan hinging on having two forgotten, and finally gaining trust. But, seing as that is just one productive thing in a long list of things Jain has done that have been Pro-VIllage, we can assume he is clean for now.

 

Where was I going with this again? Oh yeah, right. Araris is being a bit off. More so than usual. However, the information gained from lynching Ronald is greater. I'm gonna want somebody like wyrm to double check, but if my math is right, killing Ronald (and finding out his alignment) would soft-clear me and Araris (if Ronald is a forgotten)

 

Of course, this could all be an elaborate ploy with miss-information between me, Jain and Ronald, but it's not. I'm not collaborative enough to think of that and enact it.

[Alvron]

Very well.  I shall abstain from voting for now and if the tie remains as is closer to the deadline then I shall vote.  Until then it falls to Joel to break the deadlock.

 

Ash, having the outside people target us with Lines of Vigor weakens the number that can do Lines of Forbiddance.  And any other lines we draw will be useless as they will be cancelled by the Vigor lines.  As I said, if someone else want to target my target as well then that's fine as it will at least make sure that they will be hit by a Line of Vigor.  I am a little confused by your remark that the remaining Forgotten aren't on the chopping block as there is no way you could know this unless you are one of the Forgotten.

 

Araris, leaving myself off the list of suspicions would raise the level that people suspect me more than including myself on the list as it will look like I'm trying to focus the votes on the other two.

[Araris Valerian]

Yeah, I can see why you did it, my philosophy of playing is just a bit different. I prefer to give a more blunt statement that includes my own personal hopes about the outcome. And, as you can see, at least one person (me) saw it as suspicious that you mentioned your own death as a "good" idea.

[Alvron]

I wouldn't say that plotting for my own death is a "good" idea, but since we three are the prime suspects then it would be unwise of me not to plan for my own death.  The information will get us closer to finding the Forgotten.  At least that is what I hope comes of it.  If my death is what helps us win then I say go for it.

 

As for my personal hopes about the outcome.  It is simple, I hope that Ash is the one lynched as he is the one I am suspicious of.  More so now that he has posted a bit more as it seems to me that his postings are sounding like him scrambling around trying to salvage a way out.

[Ashiok]

I wasn't saying that I KNEW it, I was saying that I suspected it, assuming you were forgotten and proposed that plan. That's all. Yeah. Also my problem with the vigor thing is that if there is a single forgotten not on the 'block, it becomes pointless to Vigor anybody but the person about to be lynched. 

 

Please, somebody help me explain my thought process!

[Lightsworn Panda]

Finally, an increase in discussion! Much better.   

 

Hook line, and sinker! Eliminators, you have effectively revealed yourselves. Before Wyrm's 2:36 AM post, we had 3 votes on Tavi, 1 on Roddy and 1 on Alv. Now, isn't it convenient that 2 more players happened to vote for Alv , both barely 14 minutes apart, right when it seemed like Tavi was the winning candidate for lynching? Funnily enough, both players happen to be on the Most Suspected list. In fact, if you look at te current vote tally, you can see quite a connection:

 

Ronald (3) Joel, Tory Farth, Roddy, Tavi

Tavi (3) Wyatt, Jain, Samuel Kessen

Roddy (1) Joel,

Tory Farth (0) Tavi

 

Tavi, if you were innocent, you would have voted for Roddy, since he was the more erratic and suspicious player. Roddy, if you had been innocent, you would have voted for Tavi, since you weren't defending him earlier, and you had nothing to lose for voting for him. Tavi and Roddy, you both drove this vote into a tie. That's quite suspicious.

 

Joe and Ronald, you both have the power to win this game for the Villagers right now. Will you change your vote, Joe? Will you vote, Alv?

 

Edit: I don't have words to sum up your stupidity, colour editor.

Edited October 29, 2014 by Lightsworn Panda

[Ashiok]

Ok, I'm not an Eliminator. I'm telling you this on my oath as a Windrunner. If I told you that I could prove it, will ya'll allow me to? Just give me a target.

 

EDIT: Jain, my vote on Ronald was because of his plan, and how it favored the forgotten, especially if he was one and knew how many there were on the  'block. Tavi hadn't really been suspicious to me yet. From that point on, Tavi began saying more and more suspicious things, but I've come to expect that from him as par for the course. Looking back, there is more weird stuff from him than I thought. Hmm... I'm going to bed now, and in the morning I should have figured something out. I'll be back on around in about nine hours.

Edited October 29, 2014 by Ashiok

[Araris Valerian]

Ash has always been erratic. I don't see that as a reason to vote, and also Ash made a statement that applied to me and votes directed toward me but said that it wasn't a specific reason to defend me, just something to think about as far as voting in general, and I happened to agree. As it happens, I was typing my post when the second vote for Ronald showed up, and decided to jump on it, partly to save myself an partly to spark some more discussion than "Tavi is inactive, lets all vote for him." I still trust you Jain, but I also think that you may r abiding the trust everyone is giving you now that you aren't being quite so erratic. However, I think that we do need a lynch tonight, and I am going to stick to my vote unless we have a major revelation like that Wyrm is really a sentry or some such thing. I think that Joe shood make the final call here, since we all trust him to be a villager.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Wow. I was about to decide to go to bed, but decided to get on, just in case. I said at the beginning of the Cycle that if this Happened, I'd vote for Araris, And I will. Roddy .

[Sart]

     The debate on who to kill had devolved into a shouting match. Three members of the platoon were calling for Ronald's death. Then Ronald and his friends had declared that Tavi must be guilty. They weren't making any headway, until Joel's voice shouted above the crowd. "Hey, listen up!" he shouted. Jain quickly asked, "Who do you think is the Forgotten?" Joel responded, "Honestly, I think Tavi is, but that's not important right now..." The rest of his words were drowned out by a triumphant cheer, as Tavi was lynched. Sadly, his body didn't start spewing chalklings, so the camp was at a loss of what to do, as they started to argue again.

       Joel had more important things on his mind right now. Like the chalkling horde that was advancing on the camp. He tried to rally the camp, but everyone was too busy arguing! He had patrolling day in, and day out, and he hadn't seen a horde this big since the failed charge. Even worse, it appeared that he was the only one to fight it. He hastily drew the Matson defense, hoping he would survive the attack. Unfortunately, there was sabotage in the air. Someone shot a Line of Vigor at his rear. Then someone threw a dagger into his back! He collapsed on the ground, and screamed, "Chalklings!"

    The camp heard him that time. All the soldiers made a mad dash towards the center of camp. They needed a defensive perimeter if they were going to survive. Everyone was fleeing, rushing in a chaotic stampede. Aaron Roddy tripped though, and scrambled to get up. He drew chalklings which began to defend him, even though he didn't give them any orders. He started running to the circle the other soldiers had set up, it was only a little farther. But then, something hit him. It was some sort of new line. It pushed him backwards and he fell into the chalkling army, screaming. When the dust settled, the camp was surrounded, and they had lost three good men. The survivors buckled down, determined to fix their mistakes.

Tavi was a Rithmatist!
Joel was the Sentry!
Aaron Roddy was an Artist!

Vote Count:
Tavi: Joel, Jain, Wyatt, Kessen (4)
Ronald: Tavi, Tory Farth, Aaron Roddy (3)

Player List:

 

• (The Only Joe) Joel, a Long time soldier at Nebrask Sentry
• (Araris Valerian) Tavi, a troublesome, but bright young man. Rithmatist
• (Alvron) Ronald, a Short man with White hair and piercing blue eyes.
• (AonarFaileas) Aaron, a Graduate of Académie de Montréal. Rithmatist
• (Tulir) Rlint, a Policeman. Non-Rithmatist
• (Mailliw73) Will, a Blonde Male. Rithmatist
• (Lightsworn Panda) Jain, a new Soldier.
• (Wyrmhero) Wyatt, a Senior Soldier
• (Elend'sSecondCousin) Dui, a JoSeun Immigrant who eats chalk. Forgotten
• (Kasimir) Samuel Kessen, a man who hates the JoSeun way of life.
• (Gamma Fiend) Dig, a Digger. Rithmatist
• (pir2h) Chase Tearing, a Rithamantic Murderer. Rithmatist
• (Metacognition) Matt, a man seen through the eyes of others. Artist
• (Twelvethrootoftwo) Tory Farth, a man who exists
• (Ashiok) Aaron Roddy, A Baseball Coach Artist

This cycle will end at 9:00 AM Central Time on Friday.

Edited June 16, 2016 by Alvron

[Kasimir]

Well, that went, uh, well. So, from the fact the game hasn't ended, I think we can take it as tacit confirmation that there are just two Forgotten left (three, including Dui.) We don't get rid of one this cycle, it's game over for us. In fact, unless one of us is hiding a sentry in our pocket, it looks like only two people are rostered to Ward tonight. Plus one LoV and the wild chalkling kill will come into play, plus the usual Forgotten kill. Not reassuring.

 

More importantly, I think the write-up indicates someone does in fact have Advanced Rithmatics, and it's likely to be either King or Jain. I don't really think Alv, Twei, or myself are the kinds of people that inspire confidence in others to give us access to powerful toys like fancy new lines. Though Alv did call an airstrike down on Ash, from whoever who had Advanced Rithmatics, so I guess it is vaguely possible he has it, but I don't find that the most likely option. As far as I'm concerned, the most likely candidates for having used the Line of Revocation (sounds like it was that) are King or Jain, and while they might have done it in a case of friendly fire, it should not go unquestioned. We've been focusing too much on the same few people in a big case of tunnel vision and we really should've snapped out of that by now.

 

I am, after all, reminded that King did do a major amount of backstabbing and generally pretending to be a proper helpful darkeyes in MR1 (the scars from which still remain), so this should've really be long overdue but: Wyatt/Wyrm. Got anything to say for yourself?

Edited October 29, 2014 by Kasimir

[Wyrmhero]

Wyatt/Wyrm. Got anything to say for yourself?

 

I am shocked, shocked I tell you, to hear you accuse me of that! After all the work I've done, trying to get people to discuss stuff and my tireless efforts in rooting out Villagers for you. You guys shouldn't even listen to anything Kas says. He's a Forgotten, and Forgotten always lie.

 

But anyway, there's someone else to find too. Personally, I think Alvron's the most suspicious of everyone. He practically told me to airstrike Ashiok like that, singling him out and calling down the King's Wrath on him, and then it turns out he was innocent all along. So, what have you got to say for yourself?

Edited October 29, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Kasimir]

You guys shouldn't even listen to anything Kas says. He's a Forgotten, and Forgotten always lie.

But your justificatory support for your claim that I'm a Forgotten is the implicit claim that you are a Forgotten. And if Forgotten always lie, then you wouldn't be telling the truth if you said I'm a Forgotten. And if you're not telling the truth, that means I'm not a Forgotten. Except that would, unfortunately, be a lie. Which means you are telling the truth. But if you are telling the truth...

Eh, whatever. Alvron.