The Unknown Ajah Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 5 minutes ago, Faerie Braids said: This might be a weird question, but is there any way in which deliberately not submitting the NK is strategically sound? It is technically possible, but it would be very odd for n1. And it would suggest a very high-risk team (me, Aman, probably Drake, not sure other than that) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 14 minutes ago, Faerie Braids said: but is there any way in which deliberately not submitting the NK is strategically sound? It's happened deliberately in a game Drake GMed, but I can't see it as a first choice scenario here. 17 minutes ago, Faerie Braids said: The paranoia in me wonders if E!Raven NK's TJ (who had a lengthy argument with Aeo over whether or not Raven was being suspicious) to cover himself. I would be more inclined to consider this but I did a check of account timestamps prior to Raven showing up. Raven and Hairy both last logged in at some point after Rollovet on D1 and missed all of N1. Not impossible Raven was on on the doc but I expect less doc presence in that landscape - TJ too was arguing jn favour of Raven, against Aeo. That's not necessarily the sort of kill that makes sense there for cover. I do have a theory TJ got deliberately killed because the Elims wanted to take out someone with Zephyr, but the problem with that theory is that the Elims don't seem to have bothered with claiming Zephyr at Night at all. Unless the theory is something like this: they prioritised a Zephyr kill because no one claimed Verdant in the Day, and then at least one of them made a Verdant grab at Night. I'm guessing they would not have all made a Verdant grab, too risky. Which means at least one of our Verdant takers was Evil. 36 minutes ago, Faerie Braids said: Regarding NK's, setting aside the possibility that TJ was targeted, with a lack of people claiming to have messed with targeting/protection/roleblocking, Occam's razor implies that the elims simply forgot to submit the NK. To me, parsimony here simply entails we accept TJ was targeted, or that the Elims forgot to submit the NK. Which...I agree with Drake that it is often more possible than one thinks, and often less likely to be what happened than one expects. 2 hours ago, The Bald Brandon said: JNV fits that mark to me JNV doesn't miss kills when Evil. They came on at Night, therefore would have put in a holding order. If there's a player I have confidence in meta-reading at all, it's probably JNV. I don't say this because I think they're in danger now, but I just want it solidly there if I'm dead tonight since I think they are readable. Repeating until I am blue in the face: I have said this before and will say it again. Some of you have also acknowledged I am right on this score and then promptly used it to misread JNV in QF70b, which was actually sad >> JNV has high WiM when Evil and low WiM when Village - I will never issue a high certainty JNV Village read prior to C3, but will also say they are in their Village low activity/inactivity meta for the moment. The high WiM shows up in things like unnecessarily performative presence posts, e.g. in QF70b C1, where they essentially made a 'nothing post' that had no real analysis but presence, and didn't remotely bother to vote. (I'll note their lack of a vote did throw me off, but the showiness was what stuck out to me ) Cf. Misreading JNV Meta Exhibit A: On 2/15/2024 at 8:49 AM, DrakeMarshall said: Idk what MR67 was but as far as I've seen JNV hasn't yet departed from the meta of tending to be more laid back when village. Besides, do you really think the best D1 vote in a game with this pacing is someone who's posted once. Yes for the record I am defending JNV here, commence IKYK, etc etc. Misreading JNV Meta Exhibit B: On 2/15/2024 at 4:30 AM, Archer said: I'm gut v on JNV for doing their own thing. V!they like the shadows. It is absolutely possible they are throwing me off and this will end very badly for my correctly reading JNV streak. But I want to point out that the whole reason the tell has been resilient is the fact they have the mirror image of my Village tell, which is that the WiM inevitably means E!they can't stop themselves from just showing up and doing things, whereas V!they won't really show up unless they force themselves. This WiM issue is also why their tell has been fairly resilient so far: it's just hard to eradicate when you have differential motivation. This is why nothing posts stick out more especially when it was an active Day with voting and JNV had nothing to add to it at all. Just KIV as I am expecting to be next on the kill list tonight, and also partly busy. Watch for a pattern of engagement or disengagement, by C3. At that point they are basically pretty readable. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 The vote scattering here makes me wonder about the state of the vote. Royal. I don't like the fact this means I'm voting with Faerie but I think it's better to get vote responses earlier than later. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyalBeeMage Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: The vote scattering here makes me wonder about the state of the vote. Royal. I don't like the fact this means I'm voting with Faerie but I think it's better to get vote responses earlier than later. what are the pros of voting me instead of faerie? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 Aman spent our PM on Bee so atm he'd rather I vote elsewhere. Maybe Faerie. For now that is all o7 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Unknown Ajah Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 10 hours ago, Kasimir said: JNV doesn't miss kills when Evil. They came on at Night, therefore would have put in a holding order. If there's a player I have confidence in meta-reading at all, it's probably JNV. I don't say this because I think they're in danger now, but I just want it solidly there if I'm dead tonight since I think they are readable. That's fair, and while I kinda agree, I do disagree on a few things. I don't recall JNV being big on placeholder kills when I was an elim with them (read, I don't remember them ever doing one). That game is also an example of low activity, low WiM JNV I think. I'm mostly drawing from that data point here cause I don't really remember another e!JNV game. I am willing to defer to you on this though, as I do remember you being accurate with this in the past, but I'll keep my vote on JNV for at least a while longer as a sort of turn 2 poke. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRavenHasLanded Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 kas as I’m just going with a random gut feeling. Somehow, the game solving seems somewhat desperate… like he’s reaching or hiding something 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 46 minutes ago, TheRavenHasLanded said: kas as I’m just going with a random gut feeling. Somehow, the game solving seems somewhat desperate… like he’s reaching or hiding something Did you get any results from your Midnight Spores, Aman is having me ask. For now that is all o7 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 Kas admit it you read JNV by voodoo magic lil wee space faeries Raven fwiw I'm almost certain Kas is village, the reason why it feels like he's reaching is because he's used to understanding the game state and it genuinely bothers him when he doesn't Vote Tally RoyalBeeMage (3): DrakeMarshall, Faerie Braids, Kasimir Kasimir (1): TheRavenHasLanded JNV (1): The Bald Brandon Faerie Braids (1): Amanuensis Some people have voiced concerns that Faerie is voting for Royal, since Faerie is somewhat suspicious, but personally I think it's actually a slightly reassuring sign Yes, it means Faerie and Royal E/E is less likely, and if I were committed to the idea of an E/E connection, it'd be a red flag But it also means that v!Faerie credences are rising, and therefore that v!Royal credences are falling I think when you find yourself in a shortlist of suspects, it's extremely natural as a villager to gun for the other suspicious people, because with your perspective of the game state you likely have more reason than everyone else to believe they are evil, and what's more their flip might help clear your name. Whereas it is honestly not a very natural move for an elim to gun for the other suspects, because they know that even if they succeed in executing the other suspects before them, they will probably still die next, and dying a little later than you otherwise would have is cold comfort when your main objective is not dying. Therefore, they will generally try to delay and do anything but vote for the other people in the PoE with them. If they even have a concerted response, it will often be some flavor of focusing on undermining the points against them and/or on undermining the PoE itself. TL;DR - v!Faerie? e!Royal? e!Raven? maybe Or maybe Royal's village, I mean statistically most players are village, but I want a Royal flip though, sorry Royal Honestly I feel like there just isn't much information to read at this point, the voting engagement hasn't been that high and the D1 vote didn't feel like it helped my understanding much It's probably worth saying something about the present lack of strong Royal defense, but I kind of think the types of players who proactively defend Royal are similar to the types of players who make sure that they kill someone, so this type of argument holds a little less water than it might normally. Maybe the elims didn't kill, maybe the kill was blocked but nobody's claiming it for some reason, maybe they killed TJ for some reason -- I'm left hedging between possibilities. I think Aman is village, probably, but not for sure This is post #3 for me already which might be too brave but I dunno if I'll be back before EoD anyways Surely everything won't explode in the last 2 hours, right? right? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRavenHasLanded Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 2 hours ago, Amanuensis said: Did you get any results from your Midnight Spores, Aman is having me ask. For now that is all o7 I took no actions during the night, so I might do something this upcoming night. Spring break has been mean to me. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 (edited) 13 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: Surely everything won't explode in the last 2 hours, right? right? *puts away my nitroglycerin* Yes, yes, surely... For now that is all o7 Edited March 13 by Amanuensis Apparently kerosene is not explosive lul 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 10 hours ago, RoyalBeeMage said: what are the pros of voting me instead of faerie? 1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said: Or maybe Royal's village, I mean statistically most players are village, but I want a Royal flip though, sorry Royal I think the question here is: suppose Royal does in fact flip V. Where do we go from here? Which does go back to the voting Royal deal. I see this to some extent as choosing the low profile hypothesis for testing so—if Royal flips V, do we take this as falsification? Do we go to Faerie? If it isn't falsification, is this the value play? Royal, nominally speaking, edges out Faerie for me just a bit with regard to meta comparison (for what little value a single game has here—Faerie feels a tad more different from E!Faerie but...) I don't like the fact that Royal has a simple self-pres tie vote that Royal's not taking. This makes me worried it's not a hit and I'm low-key considering tying with Faerie. Edited to add: Probably ignoring a bunch of things here as I'm rushed for time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 Jebiga then. Faerie Final answer. Gtg. EDIT: Sart just clarified Zephyrs cannot redirect other Zephyrs. No time to deal with the implications but this makes the Night Verdant rush a bit more sus to me. Legit nfc how to process this info gtg. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aeternum Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 Now I'm not sure if I should vote because I don't want to tiebreaker the wrong one. Ah I'm indescive. I'm inclined to trust Kas and just go Faerie, but originally I was thinking RBM made more sense. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Unknown Ajah Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 (edited) Hmm, on reconsideration, I'm going to unvote JNV. I'm choosing to trust Kas on this one. To break the tie or not... aren't both of these players new? Or has Faerie done a few games? I'm going to give Royal the benefit of the new player doubt. Sucks to loe to a coinflip your second game. Faerie. My post merged, @Sart Edited March 14 by The Bald Brandon 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sart Posted March 14 Author Report Share Posted March 14 And that's time. 5 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said: Hmm, on reconsideration, I'm going to unvote JNV. I'm choosing to trust Kas on this one. To break the tie or not... aren't both of these players new? Or has Faerie done a few games? I'm going to give Royal the benefit of the new player doubt. Sucks to loe to a coinflip your second game. Faerie. My post merged, @Sart I see that... Trying to figure out if it's under the buzzer or not. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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