Mid-Range Game 66: Knights of Wind and Truth

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said:

Weren’t you talking about exing me?

Ah right. No that wasn't serious, or rather, I was hoping to phish for reactions as Mat and team would already be on the alert for any sign the Village knew so I wondered if I could get a reaction by pushing for you and then 3pool first. In any cycle not lylo [i.e. when one wrong exe means we lose], there's only one response (in general) to a scan and that's to vote the scan target. If the target is wrong, vote the scanner. (This avoids the trouble that came down in the game you spectated, where Exp faked a scan during lylo.) I would absolutely not propose in any serious world going for you without a Mat flip first, and Mat flipping maf specifically.

5 minutes ago, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said:

I think that It could be Mat. It is always suspicious to defend other elims. If he were an elim, he might defend me, a vil, in order to throw us off, and to gain a potential loyalty defender for himself.
I don’t think it is Kas. He has done simply so much, that…yeah.

I think that Atcher could be elim, but I don’t have much evidence 

raven is a gut Suspect.

the rest I think are vil.

Appreciated, thank you for pitching in and stepping up  

You're aware Raven died already, right?  Raven was Village.

[ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Ah right. No that wasn't serious, or rather, I was hoping to phish for reactions as Mat and team would already be on the alert for any sign the Village knew so I wondered if I could get a reaction by pushing for you and then 3pool first. In any cycle not lylo [i.e. when one wrong exe means we lose], there's only one response (in general) to a scan and that's to vote the scan target. If the target is wrong, vote the scanner. (This avoids the trouble that came down in the game you spectated, where Exp faked a scan during lylo.) I would absolutely not propose in any serious world going for you without a Mat flip first, and Mat flipping maf specifically.

Appreciated, thank you for pitching in and stepping up  

You're aware Raven died already, right?  Raven was Village.

…yea….now… whoops, I do remember knowing that….

[Archer]

2 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

 

@Archer, what's a potential elim team composition you could see?

@Kasimir

My money is on Mat, Devo, Wit. 

I feel very validated right now

[ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

My money is on Mat, Devo, Wit. 

I feel very validated right now

Why?

[Archer]

1 minute ago, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said:

Why?

What reason do I have to believe you're village? 

The e!Mat evidence is strong. And he consistently supported you, so you're probably evil teammates 

[ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

What reason do I have to believe you're village? 
 

 

I am not going to ignore this. But I really don’t have a sound way of arguing villiger.

[Aeoryi]

2 hours ago, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said:

 

I am not going to ignore this. But I really don’t have a sound way of arguing villiger.

Uh... hate to say, but that's not making you sound better

[Kasimir]

36 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

Uh... hate to say, but that's not making you sound better

Tbf at Wit's experience level it's just really hard to tell ;_;

2 hours ago, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said:

I am not going to ignore this. But I really don’t have a sound way of arguing villiger.

K. Agreeing with Aeo here that it's just really something that I'd argue comes more from an Elim headspace, as @|TJ| found out during LG96 when he got scanned.

Which brings me back to my uncertainty about how to read Wit, and basically the Archer v. Devo feud because part of me is legit wondering if they're doing a way better job of distancing than say, Archer and Mat are. Basically at the point where I don't care if I'm Elim killed because at least wrangling Archer and Devo will stop being my problem and be someone else's problem >>

But yes. First problem: if SB2 is truthful, and recall, we have prima facie reason to believe so, and moreover, we have to play under this operating assumption for now, then Mat's team already knew. This means so much of this cycle has to be read through the lens of 'Is this FUD/wolf theatre meant to confuse us and convince us these players cannot possibly be teamed.'

To me, that complicates how to read Wit.

Wit, and this is directly at you, on the assumption this is a genuine question: you demonstrate or argue that you are Village by doing Village things. Really, by doing the same sorts of things that you yourself took into account when trying to decide what you thought of anyone else. No one else 'proved' themselves Village to you.

You can never 'prove' you are Village, only make it more probable you are so. I don't think this is just wordplay because being a Villager means, fundamentally, living with uncertainty and having to simply work for the most likely options and discard farfetched ones. This comes back to what I said in my previous message: I don't care about being on thread 80% of the time. I am fine if you're here 20% or 10%. What helps me read you is my your setting down thoughts and contributions that seem Village, e.g. you appear to be trying to solve the game and taking a genuine interest in it rather than lurking, I don't have to keep @ing you, that you are, I hope but don't want to publicly know, using your role actions to help us out, that you are voting, and that if you have intel to pass along based on your role actions, pass it along. All these little things add together and help us build a picture of you and a case for you being Village.

When you don't do any of that but lurk, at best, you get a null read, or even worse, are then left at the mercy of everyone squabbling about how to read you based on how Mat reacted to you. That's really unideal.

Also, at the end of the day, sometimes dying is the best thing you can do for your team. It's how it is. It's rough, and not everyone is ok with this, but sometimes that gives your team the info they need ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I mention this because Aeo said earlier in one cycle that a good Villager always fights, and...eh, yes and no. Aman made the call y'all needed his flip more than y'all needed him alive and went into the good night. We can argue about whether that was the right call or not in his case, but there are times and I think this shouldn't be very controversial, where the best thing you can do is flip the player, stop arguing nonstop about it, and move on using that information. Staying alive for the purposes of staying alive isn't the point in this game, which is where all of us are in the business of balancing personal fun versus team good. No definite yardstick on when to go for which, but it's always trade-offs. Sometimes your team really doesn't need you dead, they just needed to think harder/get over themselves.

At this juncture, I can't in good conscience, given the amount of wolf theatre going on, promote Wit above null, but I also just really want the damn 3pool cleared. Sorry, I'm the 3pool delenda est guy, I guess.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Kasimir
Meant wolf theatre - need to stop confusing y'all with wayang kulit

[|TJ|]

Matrim

[STINK]

Well uh I guess I'll keep my vote where it's at then 

[Mat]

Aight pretty sure this is what happened:

Obviously, I'm not evil, so obviously, this is exlo-- no other reason the SB would lie here. Assuming 3 elims, it's 6-3. Because they're pulling this gambit, the Skybreaker must have access to Division, which means that exeing me + a Division kill + the elim kill puts it at 3-3 on a baseline.

Elims win at outnumber so that's not an automatic win but given how the SB is obviously trusted and in the know they simply know some other way that they're confident in their win. Whether that's access to vote manip to win the exe tomorrow, or knowledge of other roles (we did have a random other Division kill, which I guess could be the SB but doesn't have to be), they are confident. Otherwise they wouldn't claim this. Given how many roles there are, that makes perfect sense.

Other thing: e!SB also just makes a lot of sense distro-wise. I'm an Edgedancer, which at first seems like a lot of village protect power, but an elim with Division and a RB balances that quite nicely. It's better balanced than two village SBs, at least.

Which is why it's of upmost importance that @Kasimir tell us who the Skybreaker is-- the game may depend on it. At the very least you'd be supplying the rest of the village with a fair choice between us. It's easy to gauge which of Mat and the unnamed RB looks more evil, but you're inadvertently giving the elims the upper hand in this argument. It's not your fault, obviously, and the tradition of killing the blocked first and the blocker second is a typically a good one. It just doesn't work here because of how many roles and abilities are flying around. This mistake is costly. 

Edited November 10, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[Kasimir]

Current Thoughts:

-Mat's STINK jabs make me feel alright with my V-sided STINK read.
-Similar for my read of JNV, but that's also backed by JNV's player meta, tbh. I'm alright with V-sided JNV here.
-I go back and forth on TJ, but think there are reasons to V!read. Mat's TJ jabs make me feel alright with V-sided TJ for now.
-Not rethinking Aeo. Aeo V.
-Wit...some of the things he says makes me lean V. But I agree Mat's defense isn't a good look. At the same time, again, IDK. I don't think there's a clear-cut place to go here, but slightly more inclined to think V.
-The <Archer/Devo> mess I honestly don't want to touch with a stick, but. Like there's only so many times you can rethink/relook players before you just want to set them all on fire. Or is it just me?

(i) The Case for E!Archer

-PMed me at the start of this cycle immediately speculating about an EC WGG. Felt as though it came out of nowhere, and potentially preparing ground to try to doubt an RB claim. (Note that Elims would have known there was an RB, but not what kind of RB it was.)

-Mat case felt a bit like wolf theatre. Agreed Archer put a lot of effort into it (QF59 E!Kas / E!Orlok brawl anyone?) but I didn't feel there was significant commitment there in terms of clashing with Mat. It made me question whether it was distancing. A point in Archer's favour is that Archer was discussing Mat suspicions with me prior to this cycle, so it's not like it came out of nowhere.

-I still go back to Archer's opening C1 and view on ties being odd. I still think the visceral Villager reaction to ties isn't 'oh dear no roles', it's 'Oh God, no flips/info.' And I do still believe V!Archer is more provocative in a way Archer isn't being, e.g. I'd've expected V!Archer to do what Araris did that got him his V!read from me off the bat - Araris PMed me and was like "hey s'up wanna coordinate Ideals?" V!Archer did something similar in LG96 by setting up a group and my view is that proactiveness is a good look and generally more V!sided than E. I think it came really late from Archer. I'm not fond of that.

-Vibe from Archer's C1 counterpush against Aman. Didn't like that. Feel V!Archer tends to have more acknowledgement of pushes against him. And the Aman push was in fact to save Mat - agreed that V!Archer who V!read E!Mat might wanna do that, but at the same time, if we are currently working on the operative assumption of E!Mat, then that's still not a good look.

-Wit push as a way of pushing a LHF CW to prevent getting pushed? Devo CW not taking so wagoning Wit? Keep in mind that Archer started this cycle voting Devo, and so did Mat, in the 3pool three-cornered fight. This implies a preference for Devo over Mat. Has borne out in voting preferences so far.

-Archer's insistence on E!Devo - unsure where it came from. He voiced it initially as his RPer theory but that doesn't feel like the sort of thing you build a hard suspect from. As much as I do Devo meta-reads, I personally struggle to say she's decisively in her E!meta here, which is why I have been backing off.

-I think Archer's E!Devo lobbying/push is potentially part of an E!reaction to the Mat RB.

-I am not sure the Aman train is entirely pure. At this point, for me, the E!candidates on the Aman train are purely <Archer, Wit.> As train instigator, there's reason to look to Archer here.

+I did like Archer's C2 play better - the call to contact him and coordinate seemed more out of V!Archer.

+...you know when I write it like this...what am I even working with o_O

(ii) The Case for E!Devo

-I feel her engagement with the cycles has been less organic than V!Devo's. It's not strikingly so as Devo is difficult to read, but this is something that I did notice. I feel Devo here has been less willing to spontaneously engage and does so more when @.

-I am not sure I believe the Wit train was entirely pure, and Aeo and Ash being V means the last chance for E presence on the Wit train is Devo. I'll note though a pure Wit train is easier to believe than a pure Aman train.

-Hard lobbying against Archer feels like it could be part of an E!reaction to the Mat RB.

+I still liked Devo's C1 opening post. It felt very proactive, and contra-Archer, I wonder if E!Devo would really put that on the table. She's less a control player. Archer asserts it was to control the conversation but it doesn't make sense on a team without a control player IMO.

+Devo's play currently and in PMs reminds me strongly of MR61 where she had built an azbantium tunnel out of multiple dead Bothans on Fifth and Drake. I think that's a point in her favour as I don't recall E!Devo having this much strength in her convictions, and if I'm honest, is the main factor that sways me in the 'gun-to-my-head' V!Devo read of the two of them in 3pool.

Edited to add:

-Araris kill squarely in E!Devo's kill MO.

Edited to add 2:

Both Archer and Devo have claimed they will stop at Fourth Ideal. I think it's worth noting, at the very least.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Kasimir

[STINK]

No-one should have any ideals tbh

[Kasimir]

5 minutes ago, STINK said:

No-one should have any ideals tbh

Do you mean this ideally  

[STINK]

Why yes Mr Socrates one could put it that way

[Archer]

45 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

PMed me at the start of this cycle immediately speculating about an EC WGG. Felt as though it came out of nowhere, and potentially preparing ground to try to doubt an RB claim. (Note that Elims would have known there was an RB, but not what kind of RB it was.)

I predicted a WGG to Araris during C1, but you can't verify that. 

I understand that as the vote manipulator, in what's essentially a coin flip decision, it makes the most sense to exe me first. Or just DK to prevent exlo, although you have to mind the redirection potential. 

If I live, roleblocking offensively + vote manip is probably more valuable than protecting defensively, so I'm going to stop at 3rd Ideal. I don't want an EOD tomorrow where I end up in 2nd and get an extra life, leading to a big mess C5. 

Mat

[Kasimir]

4 minutes ago, Archer said:

I predicted a WGG to Araris during C1, but you can't verify that. 

I forgot - the Araris thing does lean me against the Araris kill coming from you, TBH. We can't edit it in but that's a + point for me on you as well.

4 minutes ago, Archer said:

Mat

Will you revote if the exe is tight? Rephrasing as a question of appearing Village v. doing the Village thing, though that's of course a loaded framing.

[Mat]

Hey Kas

Can you not blatantly ignore me

You know as well as I how costly not reevaluating is

[Kasimir]

16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hey Kas

Can you not blatantly ignore me

You know as well as I how costly not reevaluating is

I'm not exactly long on time this evening, so I'm allocating my time to get the most out of it, though I expect to be back several hours before EoD.

Edited to add:

I apologise if you feel ignored - I simply don't have the RL bandwidth at this juncture to produce pathwalking analysis in response and to deal with the ensuing back-and-forth. If you're Evil, you're obligated to go down fighting. If you're Village, the same, with the bonus of helping us make sure this isn't wasted. Unfortunately or otherwise, RL exists for me too, and I have to deal with some fires tonight so I can't give this the attention and space it deserves.

Fundamentally my silence clearly indicates I'm not really convinced by this calculus.

Edited to add 2:

Adding one pathwalking analysis here, which isn't mine, but summarising for @Devotary of Spontaneity's benefit due to her device issues. LMK privately @Fifth Scholar et al if this violates summarising rules because it isn't sufficiently so. Or IDK if it's problematic either way but look I'm trying ok, I gtg soon. Tiring/rush night.

Noting the analysis is Devo's, so it fundamentally assumes E!Archer and V!Devo. Sorry @Archer, can't control this element. I want to flag that Devo would also theoretically be close to Fourth, depending on how aggressively she does RP, so Fifth Ideal concerns are just as real for both of them.

-If SB2, then hard max of four kills this cycle (exe, DB, SB2, Elim kill.) We're 6/3 - raw numbers wise, this is a loss for Village if all four occur successfully and target Villagers. 

-At least one of DB, SB2 are Village. 

-E!Mat's Progression a problem here wrt successfully taking out any suspected teammates.

World A:

-SB2 and DB double kill Archer to get around Progression.
-Worst case in this world: V!DB, V!Mat, V!Archer, E!SB2 - 6/3 -> 3/3 Elims win by killing 2 Villagers other than Archer. [Likelihood of extra shot off-target? (Not Devo's, my thoughts.)]
-Moderately bad case: E!Mat, V!Archer, E!DB, V!SB2 - 6/3 -> 3/2. Theoretically can exe E!DB to bring this back to normal levels, but difficult to distinguish this world from e!Mat, v!Archer, v!Dust, bussing e!SB2. [Odds of a bus?]

Sub-World A2:

-Similar but if E!Mat, E!Archer, better result.
-If either e!DB or e!SB2, plausible Archer kill fails -> 5/2
-Potential also for RB/Progression to save Archer, in V!DB, V!SB2 sub-world.
-Double-shot next cycle, regard as equivalent to world in which no one does anything this cycle. Exe + tension required.

World B:

-Don't go after Archer for fear of miskill.
-Strongly unlikely Mat and SB2 both Village, therefore guaranteed a shot on an Elim either way.
-If V!Mat, SB2 and Elim kill will hit Villagers anyway, so 3/3, but most of Elim team outed [Not following this - requires credences on other players other than SB2 I think. Also genuine concerns about Village voting power IMO.]

Further Thoughts:

-Leaning E on Mat's response here. Feel Elim reflex is to counteraccuse than search for possibilities, but also acknowledge this has been defeated by others, e.g. TJ.
-Believe that all of this also still ignores fundamental plausibility of Archer's case, + visceral WiM differences.
-Weak thought that E!SB2 should have RBed C1 - if so, they get an extra free kill with the difference of an effective arson C1, and an extra Ideal bump. 
-Weakly willing to see world in which Archer and Devo are insane. Would require me to commit to an E!Wit/E!TJ team, and IDK how likely I find that. 
-Feel refusal to vote here maybe a good look - bussing team would probably ask Wit to just sheep and it's an understandable case in which to do it. (Potentially withheld for hammer?)

Right, goodnight everyone, have to go clear those things.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Kasimir

[Mat]

It doesn’t really matter if you’re not convinced. Not putting the SB on equal grounds as me is a bad move. It’s me or them, except you’ve placed them at an advantage point. Identity doesn’t matter in a situation like this. We need to know who the SB is or we’re letting the elims steamroll us here.

[Kasimir]

-Sorry, back briefly as last set of thoughts before RL things.
-Mat's aggressive phishing response doesn't strike me as intuitively Villager, actually. Reflex here for me if caught in this situation is not to ask for a democratic brawl but to A. convince I'm Village, and B. accept if not, job is to work with everyone to ensure that potential Elim pathways to profit from my death are blocked, as likelihood is there's a plan.

h/t @Devotary of Spontaneity:

1 hour ago, Archer said:

If I live, roleblocking offensively + vote manip is probably more valuable than protecting defensively, so I'm going to stop at 3rd Ideal. I don't want an EOD tomorrow where I end up in 2nd and get an extra life, leading to a big mess C5. 

Is this an E!slip?

Edited to add:

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It doesn’t really matter if you’re not convinced. Not putting the SB on equal grounds as me is a bad move. It’s me or them, except you’ve placed them at an advantage point. Identity doesn’t matter in a situation like this. We need to know who the SB is or we’re letting the elims steamroll us here.

Pragmatically or otherwise, your entire argument here hinges on convincing me to drop their identity, because if not, I think the main other way you're getting it is via a mass claim. Remaining agnostic to how you or me might feel about this situation, and I will add I am quite frankly done with being the Villager that all Elims know they get to repeatedly hammer at and FUD until I crack (LG96, LG94...), I'd say convincing me pretty much matters if only because what you want done preferably needs me to comply.

In fact, this entire argument hinges on constructing a convincing world in which the Elims will 'steamroll us here' if you don't know who the SB is. So...yeah.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Kasimir
Softened language, felt it was too aggressive and unnecessarily escalatory

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

@Kasimir

For italics.

1. Extra shot is SB counting on DB to kill Archer. 

2. Bus is only if they're not confident in going for a frame. SB needs to block a kill to get Division and bussing gets trust, but it's still a harsh and perhaps unnecessary play when Mat wasn't strongly suspected. E DB world is more straightforward in this cases but you seem to trust them.

3. TBH this was assuming e Archer since that's where I'd go if SB is exed and I'm still alive. True that this world is bleak but I don’t think it's automatic loss enough to demand SB claim much less exe them before Mat.

 

[STINK]

Shoutout to that one game where C1 someone forgot the flavour of the game and got voted out because for once the inquisitor were the good guys and the elims were normal dudes. 

Not really possible to do in C3 tho Archer why u gotta be doing typos like that

[Archer]

4 minutes ago, STINK said:

Not really possible to do in C3 tho Archer why u gotta be doing typos like that

I got so in my head about the perception of having an extra life that I tricked myself 

pleasejustshootmetonight

also Mat because the margins are too slim to be the extra credit 

[Mat]

33 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Reflex here for me if caught in this situation is not to ask for a democratic brawl but to A. convince I'm Village, and B. accept if not, job is to work with everyone to ensure that potential Elim pathways to profit from my death are blocked, as likelihood is there's a plan.

That’s what I’m doing. A. is clearly already done— when people think they’ve caught someone, there’s no surer path than a tunnel. Don’t pretend that the vast majority of your 180 on me wasn’t the alleged RB. Last turn I was in your top village reads because I showed you I was village.

Speaking of, that’s the other weird thing. Why on earth does a SB block me? That doesn’t even make sense. I was virtually mass village read.

But with A. done, B. is precisely what I’m doing by trying to figure out who the SB is. Clearly there’s a plan here. Their identity is key to it. Their death screws with it. I don’t mind dying here as long as they do too. Exe them, shoot me, vice versa, whatever. If you’re not willing to let the thread decide between the two of us, then at least decide both. I’m not sure how I’m supposed to “work to ensure potential elim pathways to profit are blocked” beyond that.