Mid-Range Game 66: Knights of Wind and Truth

[Guest Ψιτιsτηε Βεsτ]

4 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Roleblocked Mat when voted for Wit C1, kept even when clear Wit would survive thinking it more likely Mat would use action and would be more important to vote cancel later. 

E SB needs to roleblock an elim kill for power and then something needs to explain missing kill. Quite possible to leave it as a mystery though instead of bussing, don’t think we get a unanimous vote without a RB claim which means fightable exe that could hit a villager. I don’t get notified if my protect actually saves someone, for instance, which could lead to other theories for where the kill went. 

LW is more powerful than EC at 2nd and 3rd ideals especially, but if Wit is evil, what has he been doing with that power? Straightforward to illuminate Mat to random villager so he doesn't get roleblocked. 

What I did with the power? I took all actions against me and put them on archer. I know he is a villager now, but that was last round and I really was just guessing wildly. It was a bad mistake, as it gave the eilms an advantage.

I am on the Aeo train. Aeo is a dustbringer and the original people have been dissinigrated. Aeo is the second most active player, and as of now, the elims need at least some activity, and I don’t think is is Kas.

Edited November 11, 2023 by ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ

[Kasimir he/him]

36 minutes ago, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said:

What I did with the power? I took all actions against me and put them on archer. I know he is a villager now, but that was last round and I really was just guessing wildly. It was a bad mistake, as it gave the eilms an advantage.

What did you do C1, C2, C3?

Yeah, imagine that. Archer was an Elim C1 through C3 but had the temerity to Transform into a Villager for the write-up. Damnit, Archer, show some commitment!  

Edited to add:

This feels like a very weird exchange on two levels.

3 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Aeo tbh. In their post voting on me, they're hung up on me or Devo and barely mention Wit. If I had time, I'll look into Aeo-Wit interactions from previous cycles and well mentions of each other in their posts. 

11 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

• Wit seems like a leftover in the calculus. Unless TJ and Devo both are village (which is like, omega unlikely), wit isn't likely to be elim. I would look at E!TJ first, if he flips v, check out Wit. If TJ flips e, Wit is a  Villager   unless we're simply being outplayed.

Idk why this is the way to go because Wit should have way more content to analyse than me. 

-It's weird from TJ because this isn't remotely hung up on Devo. Aeo's post is like <everyone except Devo>, plus the throwaway line about unlikely TJ/Devo V/V. I'm not sure how TJ gets the opposite characterisation. Aeo actually really neglects Devo here.

-It's weird from Aeo because Devo neglect (I'd argue if you're rethinking me even in a brief one-liner, and you're rethinking STINK, whose V credentials are fairly impeccable at this point), then rethinking Devo should be a reflex. But there's no Devo discussion at all in the post TJ quotes here:

11 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

• TJ is a staple of many teams. I believe a lynch on him (or Devo) is a good choice. [Implies thinking E!Devo]
• Barring the idea if e!Kas, Kas seems very village.
• Archer was Village. Mat was indeed elim. This means we're going to the situation of world 2. Again, TJ or Devo lynch. [Directly implies E!Devo.]
• I will do some analysis on Mat'$ posts, but most of the posts C3 are worthless, most elims probably realize they F'ed up the moment they got RB'd. As such, we can expect distancing from elims (or maybe not, this is such an IKYK).
• Mat being off is indeed a Elim tell. Grrrr. Archer being off is not an elim tell. Same goes with aman. This isn't relevant now, but like, let's try not to forget it.
• Wit seems like a leftover in the calculus. Unless TJ and Devo both are village (which is like, omega unlikely), wit isn't likely to be elim. I would look at E!TJ first, if he flips v, check out Wit. If TJ flips e, Wit is a  Villager   unless we're simply being outplayed.
• Stink is also a remainder, but I think V!STINK makes more sense in this scenario, especially when we look at votes.
• Lastly, we must keep up the discussion. We're still underground, by technicality. The path is not complete.
• Aeo is maybe sleeping

And then the section which TJ catches, but oddly enough, misses the thing that really matters:

Aeo 1: Lynch Devo or TJ
Aeo 2: Lynch Devo or TJ
Aeo 3: It is very unlikely that TJ and Devo are V/V, and no E!Wit world unless TJ and Devo are V/V. Therefore, exe TJ then Wit.

????

If I think TJ and Devo are unlikely V/V, then the correct answer is: exe Devo if TJ flips V. If I think E!Wit is only likely in a V!TJ and V!Devo world, then I exe Wit after I exe them both.

Aeo

Edited to add 2:

36 minutes ago, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said:

I am on the Aeo train. Aeo is a dustbringer and the original people have been dissinigrated. Aeo is the second most active player, and as of now, the elims need at least some activity, and I don’t think is is Kas.

Right now, if you absolutely had to, who would you think is partnered with Aeo? Who is Evil together with her?

Edited November 11, 2023 by Kasimir

[Guest Ψιτιsτηε Βεsτ]

50 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

What did you do C1, C2, C3?

Yeah, imagine that. Archer was an Elim C1 through C3 but had the temerity to Transform into a Villager for the write-up. Damnit, Archer, show some commitment!  

Edited to add:

This feels like a very weird exchange on two levels.

-It's weird from TJ because this isn't remotely hung up on Devo. Aeo's post is like <everyone except Devo>, plus the throwaway line about unlikely TJ/Devo V/V. I'm not sure how TJ gets the opposite characterisation. Aeo actually really neglects Devo here.

-It's weird from Aeo because Devo neglect (I'd argue if you're rethinking me even in a brief one-liner, and you're rethinking STINK, whose V credentials are fairly impeccable at this point), then rethinking Devo should be a reflex. But there's no Devo discussion at all in the post TJ quotes here:

And then the section which TJ catches, but oddly enough, misses the thing that really matters:

Aeo 1: Lynch Devo or TJ
Aeo 2: Lynch Devo or TJ
Aeo 3: It is very unlikely that TJ and Devo are V/V, and no E!Wit world unless TJ and Devo are V/V. Therefore, exe TJ then Wit.

????

If I think TJ and Devo are unlikely V/V, then the correct answer is: exe Devo if TJ flips V. If I think E!Wit is only likely in a V!TJ and V!Devo world, then I exe Wit after I exe them both.

Aeo

Edited to add 2:

Right now, if you absolutely had to, who would you think is partnered with Aeo? Who is Evil together with her?

Mat 

Maybe aman? I don’t know

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said:

Mat 

Maybe aman? I don’t know

Aman dead bro

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

2. Who is your current, leading, speculated E!team? Please name both E!partners.

Wit more evil than TJ. More closely linked to Mat. E!Lightweaver who has both redirects and roleblocks gives a reason for the village to have 1-2 tension users. Did explicitly claim to miss the end of C2 which could be where failing to save Mat from a roleblock went wrong, if the elims had to switch kills late and Mat wasn't the designated killer but was the only elim available to switch. Something had to have gone wrong here. TJ + Wit team doesn't not work from an interactions standpoint [main thing I'm seeing is TJ voting Archer over Ash C2 (less relevant since both are village) while bringing up e!Wit potential, while Wit says nothing about TJ except for considering village everyone but Mat, Archer Raven C2] but at a mechanical level it's low firepower with little effort made to do anything about it. 

Aeoryi could go with either of those, but her voting TJ over Wit makes Aeoryi + Wit more likely and feeds back into Wit more evil than TJ. Though TJ also discounted her as an option but should have known Archer was dead if he was teamed with Aeoryi. Probably should have been the one submitting the elim kill C2 though since she was village read at the time but had technology issues so maybe couldn't, might lead to Mat becoming the killer with not enough warning. Did post 1.5 hours before rollover when it was clear Archer or Ash would be exed. Didn't dust anyone other than Archer yesterday. @Kasimir or @STINK what did she know about Stink/SB and what he was doing for his C3 action? You told me about a doubleshot on Archer 3, 3.5 hours before rollover.

So top team Wit + Aeoryi.

[STINK he/him]

Look idk what anyone actually knew about me I got like one PM and you get 1 guess as to who it's open with

 

[Aeoryi she/her]

What's the current state of things? Let me read through the thread.

[Aeoryi she/her]

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Siiiiiiiiigh.

Are we determined to make me a brokiller this game

Must I Wyrm everyone.

Have I become the true nemesis, my Dulabro, who STUCK FIVE KNIVES INTO MY BACK???

TJ bhai????

TJ and Wit both leave us with the same problem IMO. It's clear that a key assumption about Elim play fails with regard to either of them - with TJ, we have to explain the C2 RB, with Wit, we have to explain the C2 RB. With TJ, we have to explain his C1. With Wit, we have to explain him.

Edited to add:

Tbh I think this is a problem for most anyone.

Aeo: Why no C1 Ideal gunning? Could easily give Mat Progression faster. (Tbf she may have targeted Mat - we'd just never know. If a kill hits Mat and no one sees it, did it happen?)

TJ: Why no Tension Mat???

STINK: Why are we even considering him lmao

Devo: Slight similar concerns IMO wrt vote manip, though maybe more avoidable. Tunnel areh???

Wit: Just why is Wit.

Edited to add 3: - Just to be clear, the point of the section above this is sort of what Araris said in a different game. The fact that flipping Archer has landed us in this landscape implies that one of the Elims slipped past us by doing something unexpected. This can be a modelling failure or genuine Elim ingenuity, but either way, it implies a key assumption is false, so saying all these things should point to V/E is incorrect - we're in this predicament precisely because a modelling assumption is not true.

Edited to add 2:

@|TJ| @Devotary of Spontaneity @STINK @Aeoryi + emergency improvised Wit tag:

@ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ

Hi all.

1. Action claims for each cycle, s'il vous plaît (if you've already done it, don't sweat it)

2. Who is your current, leading, speculated E!team? Please name both E!partners.

Action C1- absolutely nothing. Too early to really shoot anyone

Action C2- Shot Raven off of a misread I made. As much as I would have liked to change it, other things got in the way. (Referring to IRL, not in game)

Action C3- Shot Archer with STINK.

So now I am basically a useless person. That's unfortunately what happened.

Whatever. 

Time for more stuff:

1. @Kasimir, part of your case revolves around me being significantly less active C2/C3. I pretty sure I blue texted it, but I unfortunately did not have access at all to the shard. So I would like to just point that out.

2. I was going to post a meme about wit chosing his suspects by rolling 3 d4. Dude, Aman is very dead.

3. I actually don't care if I get Exe'd, but you should at least be considering that:

 I) assuming 3 elims, we're at 4:2. If I am village, and elims get a successful kill (guaranteed if E!TJ) then it's over. Farthermore, if STINK is to shoot someone and they die, and they are Village, it's over.

II) Assuming 3 elims, we're at 4:2. If I am Elim, then elims get a guaranteed successful kill (because I have no reason not to use abrasion) and you'll be at 3:1. Stink miskilling someone (hopefully this doesn't happen) will put you at 2:1. If:

  a) e!STINK: let's be honest you're doomed. Elim role-blocker will prevent anything from happening with wit, and TJ's BS is worthless in that scenario. Kas will almost certainly die one way or another. Get Devo to RB stink

  b) e!wit:

  c) e!TJ: Still winnable. Just get Devo or STINK to RB him. There's no way he is at 3rd ideal, so he can't use vote manip and immunity at the same time. 

  d) e!Devo: You've lost. Elsecallers are essentially a wild-card. Transportation could screw you over. If 5th ideal Devo, you've been even more lost. The vote manip is mostly why. 

  e) e!Kas: I don't like this prospect. But it's worth to consider it. e!me has a bit of connection to Kas, and Kas is basically venerate at this point that people won't care to reread him. And at that point Kas will win. Almost certainly. 

III) assuming 2 elims, and e!me, you simply win. Let's be honest, chances of this is super low. Village has already won at this point. If v!me, you're at 3:1, and see world II for more details

4. I'll fill you in later

[Guest Ψιτιsτηε Βεsτ]

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Aman dead bro

What! Oh…. 

[Aeoryi she/her]

21 minutes ago, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said:

What! Oh…. 

3 hours ago, STINK said:

Look idk what anyone actually knew about me I got like one PM and you get 1 guess as to who it's open with

 

I can make that number into a 2

But Aeoryi

I don't really care at this point

No one will probably care what I say

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

What did you do C1, C2, C3?

Yeah, imagine that. Archer was an Elim C1 through C3 but had the temerity to Transform into a Villager for the write-up. Damnit, Archer, show some commitment!  

Edited to add:

This feels like a very weird exchange on two levels.

-It's weird from TJ because this isn't remotely hung up on Devo. Aeo's post is like <everyone except Devo>, plus the throwaway line about unlikely TJ/Devo V/V. I'm not sure how TJ gets the opposite characterisation. Aeo actually really neglects Devo here.

-It's weird from Aeo because Devo neglect (I'd argue if you're rethinking me even in a brief one-liner, and you're rethinking STINK, whose V credentials are fairly impeccable at this point), then rethinking Devo should be a reflex. But there's no Devo discussion at all in the post TJ quotes here:

And then the section which TJ catches, but oddly enough, misses the thing that really matters:

Aeo 1: Lynch Devo or TJ
Aeo 2: Lynch Devo or TJ
Aeo 3: It is very unlikely that TJ and Devo are V/V, and no E!Wit world unless TJ and Devo are V/V. Therefore, exe TJ then Wit.

????

If I think TJ and Devo are unlikely V/V, then the correct answer is: exe Devo if TJ flips V. If I think E!Wit is only likely in a V!TJ and V!Devo world, then I exe Wit after I exe them both.

Aeo

Edited to add 2:

Right now, if you absolutely had to, who would you think is partnered with Aeo? Who is Evil together with her?

...

I would see an Aeo/Kas/Mat team. Wouldn't that be insane

[STINK he/him]

7 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

I can make that number into a 2

But Aeoryi

Very cool of you to not PM me and then also vote yourself for no reason? Like cmon there's no need to do something like that

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, STINK said:

Very cool of you to not PM me and then also vote yourself for no reason? Like cmon there's no need to do something like that

I've never PM'd STINK ever and I'd like to keep it that way

And besides, self voting is always the way to go.

LG97 got me used to self voting, which I attempted to do every cycle

[STINK he/him]

59 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

I've never PM'd STINK ever and I'd like to keep it that way

Many a game has been lost due to this fact why you saying this like you're proud smh

Also no don't self-vote no don't do that why like if you're village you don't want to and elim it's a gambit just don't alright

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, STINK said:

Also no don't self-vote no don't do that why like if you're village you don't want to and elim it's a gambit just don't alright

Because I now understand what Aman felt. And mat. So no, I will not change my vote.

1 minute ago, STINK said:

Many a game has been lost due to this fact why you saying this like you're proud smh

In my experience, not PMing stink has lead to 50% more victories than PMing stink. The statistics back me up

[STINK he/him]

This the same kinda disrespect I faced from E!Mat idk why I even bother tbh see y'all in the morning

[Guest Ψιτιsτηε Βεsτ]

15 minutes ago, STINK said:

This the same kinda disrespect I faced from E!Mat idk why I even bother tbh see y'all in the morning

 

34 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

Because I now understand what Aman felt. And mat. So no, I will not change my vote.

In my experience, not PMing stink has lead to 50% more victories than PMing stink. The statistics back me up

How would you know if you haven’t ever pm ed him?

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said:

 

How would you know if you haven’t ever pm ed him?

Bold of you to assume I never PM'd him

 

[Guest Ψιτιsτηε Βεsτ]

1 hour ago, Aeoryi said:

I've never PM'd STINK ever and I'd like to keep it that way

And besides, self voting is always the way to go.

LG97 got me used to self voting, which I attempted to do every cycle

^^^^^^^ you just said so! And don’t edit!

Edited November 12, 2023 by ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said:

^^^^^^^ you just said so! And don’t edit!

Timestamped one hour ago

 

[Kasimir he/him]

I have thoughts about the foregoing posts but I'm tired and it's been one hell of a morning so I'll just drop this thought and engage more substantively later:

Convergence on E!Aeo is concerning IMO. I think there are reasons to think E!Aeo partnered with E!Devo but given widespread commitment to E!Aeo, I'm struggling to see this as a sensible play for the Elims. In E!Aeo world, E!partner isn't theoretically letting Aeo go without a fight. Devo/Aeo should probably prefer a Devo exe to Aeo because E!Aeo is likely to still have one shot left, which could make a lethal difference here at semi lylo. If we all think E!Aeo, she's getting roleblocked. As long as one of Devo and Wit is V, we have a second roleblock in play.

Hell any E!partner not Wit would probably prefer not Aeo so I think something is wrong here. Maybe. Potential distancing as well I think.

I'll head off for more attempts at sleep with the observation Aman made to me at the very start of the game, which was to not underestimate Aeo because any player who substantively reads past games has significant WiM. He was concerned I was underestimating her E!range.

Either way I've not made up my mind yet for obvious reasons. This is one step from lylo and if the Village has to defend at lylo, we should expect one of <STINK, me> and three in <Wit, TJ, Aeo, Devo> unless exed because the Elims will never narrow down the suspect pool for a F5. Our wincon as Village is optimally to prevent any losses by correct roleblocking. If we can't do that, our secondary wincon is to go into F5 forcing the Elims to kill within the suspect pool using our available protects and redirects.

There's a world in which we can sort of tip things in our favour but this will require making a Rube Goldberg machine of actions and everyone following the plan. Even then I haven't managed to really make a tight circuit. So I don't feel it's worth going to that extent.

Edited to add: I was half-asleep. Two points I alluded to but did not finish:

A. Aman noted Aeo had substantial WiM and will to improve. These two combined are what makes lethal underestimation possible. 

B. Even at semi-lylo, we don't screw around. My vote is not locked in especially when it isn't even Rollovet yet [24 hour mark.]

Edited November 12, 2023 by Kasimir

[Aeoryi she/her]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I have thoughts about the foregoing posts but I'm tired and it's been one hell of a morning so I'll just drop this thought and engage more substantively later:

Convergence on E!Aeo is concerning IMO. I think there are reasons to think E!Aeo partnered with E!Devo but given widespread commitment to E!Aeo, I'm struggling to see this as a sensible play for the Elims. In E!Aeo world, E!partner isn't theoretically letting Aeo go without a fight. Devo/Aeo should probably prefer a Devo exe to Aeo because E!Aeo is likely to still have one shot left, which could make a lethal difference here at semi lylo. If we all think E!Aeo, she's getting roleblocked. As long as one of Devo and Wit is V, we have a second roleblock in play.

Hell any E!partner not Wit would probably prefer not Aeo so I think something is wrong here. Maybe. Potential distancing as well I think.

I'll head off for more attempts at sleep with the observation Aman made to me at the very start of the game, which was to not underestimate Aeo because any player who substantively reads past games has significant WiM. He was concerned I was underestimating her E!range.

Either way I've not made up my mind yet for obvious reasons. This is one step from lylo and if the Village has to defend at lylo, we should expect one of <STINK, me> and three in <Wit, TJ, Aeo, Devo> unless exed because the Elims will never narrow down the suspect pool for a F5. Our wincon as Village is optimally to prevent any losses by correct roleblocking. If we can't do that, our secondary wincon is to go into F5 forcing the Elims to kill within the suspect pool using our available protects and redirects.

There's a world in which we can sort of tip things in our favour but this will require making a Rube Goldberg machine of actions and everyone following the plan. Even then I haven't managed to really make a tight circuit. So I don't feel it's worth going to that extent.

Of course, this could all be explained if I was the only elim remaining, busy suffering in Fifth's extensively rigged distro, and just wanting to end the game rather than attempt a 5 v 1.

Think about it. How would you feel if you were an Elim that had your only elim partner die and you couldn't do anything because you're by yourself.

I was wondering if anyone would make that observation, but here you go. Aman is a wise one.

As for the DB shot, think about it this way: If I flaked, and STINK shot and archer was protected then immediately I get Exe'd. Too dangerous not to shoot archer

Oh, and in the unlikely event I got the ideal you'd all be screwed if you didn't exe me

[STINK he/him]

That last post doesn't look too well village wise?

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, STINK said:

That last post doesn't look too well village wise?

:thonk:

 

Of course not

You tell me this in what world is Aeo not killed 

[Kasimir he/him]

Oh I see we've hit that stage of the game...

Aman is brave and strong and wise and I am very proud of him.

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Oh I see we've hit that stage of the game...

Aman is brave and strong and wise and I am very proud of him.

I agree that Aman is definitely right.

Ultimately, the goal of each game is to improve

Do u want to see the "why Araris had to be C1'd" ppt?