Mid-Range Game 66: Knights of Wind and Truth

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

E!Mat, v!Archer worlds were supposed to have either SB or DB be elim leaning DB, but the only division kill was Archer, which was supposed to happen, so possible they're both village. SB claim about Mat true so more likely village of the two. Which would leave the Bondsmith probably and then one more. Unlikely Kas, role too weak + agonized too much about Archer and Mat. SB fits ED + BS team makes more sense rolewise since it doesn't overlap abrasion and lets the elims solo BS ideal, but dependent on e!Bondsmith obviously and would require SB to be bussing Mat and then not taking the chance to division kill a villager. Don't know other player's role, would be helpful for team composition knowing what functions they can replace.

Edit: Note that DB is harder to division kill than SB because of abrasion. Also that someone random got the vote ideal and it doesn't look like that was Archer or JNV.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Devotary of Spontaneity

[Aeoryi she/her]

I will call out now. 

If you received the ideal, please claim to Kas or myself (Kas would be preferred though, I'm not on 24/7). If we don't receive an ideal claim, we can safely assume that an Elim got the ideal.

So yeah.

 

Mat was Elim. Archer was not. JNV seems like an odd Elim kill choice.

Gahhhh migraine 

[Aeoryi she/her]

MORE MORE STUFF:

1. TJ is a staple of many teams. I believe a lynch on him (or Devo) is a good choice.
2. Barring the idea if e!Kas, Kas seems very village.
3. Archer was Village. Mat was indeed elim. This means we're going to the situation of world 2. Again, TJ or Devo lynch.
4. I will do some analysis on Mat'$ posts, but most of the posts C3 are worthless, most elims probably realize they F'ed up the moment they got RB'd. As such, we can expect distancing from elims (or maybe not, this is such an IKYK).
5. Mat being off is indeed a Elim tell. Grrrr. Archer being off is not an elim tell. Same goes with aman. This isn't relevant now, but like, let's try not to forget it.
6. Wit seems like a leftover in the calculus. Unless TJ and Devo both are village (which is like, omega unlikely), wit isn't likely to be elim. I would look at E!TJ first, if he flips v, check out Wit. If TJ flips e, Wit is a  Villager   unless we're simply being outplayed.
7. Stink is also a remainder, but I think V!STINK makes more sense in this scenario, especially when we look at votes.
8. Lastly, we must keep up the discussion. We're still underground, by technicality. The path is not complete.
9. Aeo is maybe sleeping

EDIT: Yo, btw, I have my phone back now so expect activity levels to reach your average C1 aeoryi amount.

And yeah TJ... sorry bro. You aren't looking much better after a quick read through

Edited November 11, 2023 by Aeoryi

[Kasimir he/him]

-Someone is probably going to yell at me because this has been chronic sleep shortage I'm sorry.

-Need more sleep tbh.

-Going to sleep more. Brutal all-nighter, thanks Elim guilt FUD tactics. Be nice if y'all can make someone else the designated target for once. Been three games of this kraem and it Ain't Fun.

-Thank the Force Mat was Evil.

-Planning to use the flips to rework C1, C2 voting analysis. C3 will be a bit muffed because of Mat and bussing but we can try anyway. Thanks Archer, we'll carry your work on.

-RIP Holy Ruin, Destroyer of Worlds and Elims. I'm sorry I didn't get to protecc you

-We have all ostensible roleclaims now. I think we need to do some serious distro looking/diving.

-BS case still feels strong but idk. Want to sleep on this as the TJ case may feel less robust given Mat.

-Why must Wit repeatedly feel Evil and too obvious at the same time...

-Personal theory is they suspected JNV was the SB or DB which might say something about who/where. I need to recheck Mat's calculus. Again after more sleep.

EDIT: Given Archer.

You know. The FUD was so brutal I thought I might need to step away if Mat was Village and panicked to people because of ML guilt resurging when I thought I'd killed it and it was a white hole of panic and guilt in my head and chest that stopped everything. And yet. It's odd. I come right up to it now and I find you can endure it after all. Or that it doesn't hurt as bad as I thought it did after all. I thought I got rid of ML guilt but it still recurs sometimes. What I'm saying is yeah sorry Archer, we'll kill them for you and use the flip. As a good Village should. 

EDIT2: Is there a reason why I'm saying this aloud? I guess I’m tired and my filter is shot to hell. But also because IDK, if I ever see this game again will I remember? I can and have done pretty kayana things because of ML guilt. Meerkat Tineye kraem was one of them. Getting guilted into spending the whole night rethinking an obvious play isn't the worst. And yet actually looking right at the worst scenario—what feels like a preventable Village death if only I'd been a bit better/smarter/whatever in the middle of active ML guilt and realising it can be endured feeld like a revelation or zen moment somehow. God I'm legit sending messages to my future self rn in thread I’m so sorry y'all I need more sleep.

Edited to add 3:

Sorry, sleep not happening at the moment due to other life things but will be fixed later on.

Cycle One EoD voting:

Quote

Archer (1): JNV
Aman (5): Archer, Wit, Raven, Kas, Aman
Mat (1): Araris
Wit (3): Devo, Aeo, Ash
JNV (1): Mat
Nobody (2): STINK, TJ

Cycle Two EoD voting:

Quote

Ashbringer (5): Kasimir, Archer, Aeoryi, Matrim’s Dice, STINK
Archer (3): Devotary of Spontaneity, Ashbringer, JNV, |TJ|
Nobody (2): Wit, Raven

Anyway. I was looking over the EoD voting. Theoretically C1 is a quiet EoD - Mat's declining to get involved but staying present feels like a clear wish to stay off a 'bad' train cf. Aman. 

I don't feel it's easy to keep Wit off: Mat's side-train energy suggests low commitment, but we'll see. I struggle to believe the Aman train was entirely pure.

We know there's at least one Elim on the C2 Ash train, but I'm curious about the Archer train.

Here's my trouble in a nutshell: I think that TJ is exeable. I think if Devo is Evil, we're in bigger trouble because she's minimally Fourth Ideal today, if she didn't get the extra life from the Fifth Ideal. Not sorry about hammer risk worries, the numbers just suck y'all. Our DB is not going to have a kill again until Fourth Ideal IMO. And this assumes the DB is Village. I don't know. Let me think through this. I'd rather not fear exe.

Anyway. Let's look at the roles. I think we have enough sight of the distro to start making some educated guesses.

Village+:

Windrunner (Soother, roleblocker)
Willshaper (Thug on stilts, target scanner)
Skybreaker 1 (Roleblocker, extra kill)
Skybreaker 2 (Roleblocker, extra kill)
Lightweaver 1 (Redirect, swiss army knife)
Lightweaver 2 (Redirect, swiss army knife)
Elsecaller (Swiss army knife, Thug on stilts)
Stoneward (Tineye on stilts, redirect/roleblock protecc)
Bondsmith (Redirect/roleblock protecc, vote manip)
Truthwatcher (Protecc, redirect)
Dustbringer (Kill, untargetable)
Edgedancer (Untargetable, protecc)

Evil:

Edgedancer (Untargetable, protecc)

I think I am not interested in considering a bus. SB2 never had to claim, and giving up the deepwolf hurts. They might not have known that Archer and I were already rethinking Mat C2 (does explain Mat's insistence he was V!read and we 180-ed lol) so that's even more 'why would you do this.' And the correct answer to rethinking Mat isn't bussing - our suspicions were probably survivable. The time Mat took to reply to my post suggests he probably expected an EC, not a second Skybreaker, which complicated things - it's easier to defend against a RB charge than it is a RB scan charge. But I'm not sure, just thinking aloud.

So, suppose the Skybreaker 2 is Village. I think the issue we have here is that that's still a lot of potential screw-you power on the Village-side:

-WR: roleblock at WR2
-SB1: roleblock
-SB2: roleblock
-LW1: redirect, roleblock at LW2
-LW2: redirect, roleblock at LW2
-EC: roleblock at EC1

If all these roles are Village, it's bonkers.

I think we could argue that some of these roles might be Evil: possibly both, if not one of them (italicised.) But that's still an awful lot of redirects and RBs going on, and while you could count on that messing with the map where Elims are concerned, that's still rough. For that reason, E!BS does feel like the correct call I guess. But it's rough to role-exe.

The issue is, what's the other Elim team option?

E!DB? Theoretically possible - Elims get a few extra shots. TW would be necessary on Village side no matter what, just due to sheer DB existence. Might explain V!ED as well, and the odds of LW proteccs, which - are more rare, but still HMM.

I lean against E!Wit still. Here's the thing. I think we can explain why TJ is not gunning due to being unavailable. But the problem here I think is we gotta explain why Wit isn't doing that. The point of FNG isn't to stay alive, it's, literally, to keep your team alive and power up behind the scenes. I can't see Wit being super available and just not doing that, and Mat not going 'bruh what.'

So my effective pool is now <TJ, Devo, Aeo.>

Or back to <Devo, Aeo> as I was thinking just now. 

Devo addresses some team comp issues in that she gives them more flexibility against the 6-7 extra kills flying around - she has an occasional protecc, a partial Thug life, and...hmm. You know. And vote manip.

You know...

Partial Thug life...and potential extra life at 5EC. And...

Hmmm.

>>

Edited to add X with X being a number IDER anymore:

@Devotary of Spontaneity - Why'd you RB Mat C1?

Edited to add X+1:

6 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Edit: Note that DB is harder to division kill than SB because of abrasion. Also that someone random got the vote ideal and it doesn't look like that was Archer or JNV.

DB shot twice, out of Division. SB has one shot. It had better bloody well count, especially at our numbers.

Don't feel any E!SB worlds are credible for reasons already laid out.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Kasimir

[STINK he/him]

The maths is simple, Devo near 5th ideal? 

Devotary of Spontaneity

Also idk about Aeor still doing the like questions for everyone routine last cycle 

[Kasimir he/him]

31 minutes ago, STINK said:

The maths is simple, Devo near 5th ideal? 

Devotary of Spontaneity

Also idk about Aeor still doing the like questions for everyone routine last cycle 

Bro I'm at Fourth myself...

Edited to add:

@STINK - My main issue has always been fundamentally - we got 48hrs, y'all. We cannot afford to squander it. I'm not in support of any kneejerk onto TJ or Devo or anyone, simpliciter. We have to work things out. We got the time, so let's use it.

I think the Elims know the distro now so let's put the cards on the table.

Me = 4SW
You = SB, hello, lock Village.
Aeo = DB.
Devo = EC
Wit = LW2
TJ = BS

Can everyone please claim your actions. Wit, please, this goes for you too.

I have been sending y'all the pretty messages and last cycle, I used Tension on STINK.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Kasimir

[STINK he/him]

Aw man I was hoping to keep some distancing going why you gotta out me like this smh

[Kasimir he/him]

37 minutes ago, STINK said:

Aw man I was hoping to keep some distancing going why you gotta out me like this smh

We're 4/2, STINK. I'm sorry, but I think things are uncomfortably tight, and if you think Aeo is E, then she pretty much can work out you're the SB as Wit claimed LW to her and no way in hell it was gonna be TJ. It's not lylo but it's still pretty close, so I don't think there's much to be gained from secrecy anymore. Last cycle, yes, especially with Mat trying to kanly you. This cycle, we just need to know what everyone is doing or claims to have done. All info will help at this point.

Edited to add:

If JNV hadn't flipped, I would probably have used them to hide you and give you more cover (sorry Holy Ruin, Destroyer of Worlds and Elims  ) but I don't feel it's workable in this landscape anymore, given the full-bore suspicion trigonometry.

Edited to add 2:

On a pragmatic note, sorry everyone - don't think we'll be seeing much from TJ bhai for the next bit. Diwali weekend.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Kasimir

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Roleblocked Mat when voted for Wit C1, kept even when clear Wit would survive thinking it more likely Mat would use action and would be more important to vote cancel later. 

E SB needs to roleblock an elim kill for power and then something needs to explain missing kill. Quite possible to leave it as a mystery though instead of bussing, don’t think we get a unanimous vote without a RB claim which means fightable exe that could hit a villager. I don’t get notified if my protect actually saves someone, for instance, which could lead to other theories for where the kill went. 

LW is more powerful than EC at 2nd and 3rd ideals especially, but if Wit is evil, what has he been doing with that power? Straightforward to illuminate Mat to random villager so he doesn't get roleblocked. 

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Roleblocked Mat when voted for Wit C1, kept even when clear Wit would survive thinking it more likely Mat would use action and would be more important to vote cancel later. 

C2, C3, C4? Did you target scan anyone? Recall you were at 3EC last cycle, but could be wrong. 

5 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

LW is more powerful than EC at 2nd and 3rd ideals especially, but if Wit is evil, what has he been doing with that power? Straightforward to illuminate Mat to random villager so he doesn't get roleblocked. 

Could be used to avoid a scan as well, though clear enough that the action was redirected, according to Fifth. Results PM indicates this. FNG play is useless without biting - same issue as deepwolves.

Same argument could be theoretically made of BS wrt RB but I think Wit has been more present than TJ, hence the problem.

6 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

E SB needs to roleblock an elim kill for power and then something needs to explain missing kill.

Then why not do it C1? 

6 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Quite possible to leave it as a mystery though instead of bussing, don’t think we get a unanimous vote without a RB claim which means fightable exe that could hit a villager.

This. Plus, could just claim EC, which opens more room for doubt on the RB claim. The fact it was a SB claim makes it indubitable Mat was caught killing - anything lesser could be fought off. Given V!you would now know the lead trains on C3 were both Villagers (you, Archer mentioned as a CW), am curious why you consider it more than a low probability world at this juncture. No theoretical reason to surrender this much leverage, and barring a rolescan, never illuminating us on the RBed kill would've just led to speculation Elims were gunning ideals IMO.

On face of it, Village's problem rn is we're tanky as all crem but need more info - fully expect Elims to be willing to play to kill denial as three potential RBs, your quasiThuglife, target scan, and Abrasion etc all in play makes it hard for kills to stick but implies we're probably stuck trying to outlast each other.

[|TJ| he/him]

Bhai, I'll just say this, C1 I wasn't really busy and I took it very casually.  Thought there was 24 more hours to go like I said. 

I've never been that lax and careless in an elim team. Even if I don't post much or RP for stuff, I always vote and send in an action if I'm a part of the elim team. 

I didn't do either. 

You know my actions since then. 

C2 - Tension Kas

C3 - Tension Devotary

Now I need to vote between Wit and Archer, what do you suggest? 

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Bhai, I'll just say this, C1 I wasn't really busy and I took it very casually.  Thought there was 24 more hours to go like I said. 

I've never been that lax and careless in an elim team. Even if I don't post much or RP for stuff, I always vote and send in an action if I'm a part of the elim team. 

I didn't do either. 

You know my actions since then. 

C2 - Tension Kas

C3 - Tension Devotary

Now I need to vote between Wit and Archer, what do you suggest? 

Bhai. Archer dead >>

Very dead >>

Sigh. I know bhai, that is the thing I am reconsidering. But you also know you are the one* player I never wanna exe. LG96, you almost got me to back down and consider E!Archer and that was with Archer scanning you.

Edited to add:

*Well Aman too.

Edited to add 2:

*Well, I exed Aman so I guess that aged like milk. And it hurt my heart to do it...

Edited to add 3:

*I guess Araris as well.

Edited to add 4:

*How could I forget my insistence on shielding the murderpuppy

Edited to add 5:

*Also Holy Ruin, Destroyer of Worlds and Elims, you can't ask me to exe my god and patron

Edited to add 6:

*...I think at this point it's easier to just state who I'd wanna exe tbh.

Edited to add 7:

*I swear it's just you bhai it's always been you! Aman never meant anything to me!!

Edited November 11, 2023 by Kasimir

[STINK he/him]

Look I'll post so that we don't get an edit 8

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, STINK said:

Look I'll post so that we don't get an edit 8

It's fine I've accepted I've cheated on TJ with all the bros I won't exe

Okay more seriously - I guess there's the DeTess principle wrt Wit (anyone who seems like a null to you at endgame should be considered Evil) and Wit might not be a LW after all, but I still feel ??? about the whole set-up tbh.

Our issue with C1 is Raven's intervention sort of took Wit out of danger, but I still feel...eh about how close Wit was to getting exed. Very risky place for an Elim to be, and the C2 problem all over again.

Suppose, for the moment, V!TJ. How do you feel about a Devo-Aeo team?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

C2, C3, C4? Did you target scan anyone? Recall you were at 3EC last cycle, but could be wrong.

Then why not do it C1? 

This. Plus, could just claim EC, which opens more room for doubt on the RB claim. The fact it was a SB claim makes it indubitable Mat was caught killing - anything lesser could be fought off. Given V!you would now know the lead trains on C3 were both Villagers (you, Archer mentioned as a CW), am curious why you consider it more than a low probability world at this juncture. No theoretical reason to surrender this much leverage, and barring a rolescan, never illuminating us on the RBed kill would've just led to speculation Elims were gunning ideals IMO.

C2 protect Mat, C3 vote cancel Mat, C4 I can do two of [roleblock, protect, vote cancel] on the same player and then do a transportation scan. I was 2EC last cycle but now am 4EC from 3 votes in row + EC ideal.

That would be better.

Yeah. Have to lay out all the possibilities since we have time but e DB more likely.

Elims need something to counter the absurd number of roleblocks + redirects getting thrown at them. My powers aren't good at that, but Wit and TJ's are. Double abrasion isn't enough since e!DB finds it difficult to get 2nd ideal until start of C3.

[Kasimir he/him]

15 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Elims need something to counter the absurd number of roleblocks + redirects getting thrown at them. My powers aren't good at that, but Wit and TJ's are. Double abrasion isn't enough since e!DB finds it difficult to get 2nd ideal until start of C3.

Siiiiiiiiigh.

Are we determined to make me a brokiller this game

Must I Wyrm everyone.

Have I become the true nemesis, my Dulabro, who STUCK FIVE KNIVES INTO MY BACK???

TJ bhai????

TJ and Wit both leave us with the same problem IMO. It's clear that a key assumption about Elim play fails with regard to either of them - with TJ, we have to explain the C2 RB, with Wit, we have to explain the C2 RB. With TJ, we have to explain his C1. With Wit, we have to explain him.

Edited to add:

Tbh I think this is a problem for most anyone.

Aeo: Why no C1 Ideal gunning? Could easily give Mat Progression faster. (Tbf she may have targeted Mat - we'd just never know. If a kill hits Mat and no one sees it, did it happen?)

TJ: Why no Tension Mat???

STINK: Why are we even considering him lmao

Devo: Slight similar concerns IMO wrt vote manip, though maybe more avoidable. Tunnel areh???

Wit: Just why is Wit.

Edited to add 3: - Just to be clear, the point of the section above this is sort of what Araris said in a different game. The fact that flipping Archer has landed us in this landscape implies that one of the Elims slipped past us by doing something unexpected. This can be a modelling failure or genuine Elim ingenuity, but either way, it implies a key assumption is false, so saying all these things should point to V/E is incorrect - we're in this predicament precisely because a modelling assumption is not true.

Edited to add 2:

@|TJ| @Devotary of Spontaneity @STINK @Aeoryi + emergency improvised Wit tag:

@ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ

Hi all.

1. Action claims for each cycle, s'il vous plaît (if you've already done it, don't sweat it)

2. Who is your current, leading, speculated E!team? Please name both E!partners.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Kasimir

[|TJ| he/him]

38 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Bhai. Archer dead >>

Forgooot, my bad xD

Witless

Why is Aeo consensus village? 

Edited November 11, 2023 by |TJ|

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Witless

Any theoretical reason for Wit besides the obvious? 

3 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Why is Aeo consensus village? 

Revising as well at this juncture. Points in favour were high energy thread engagement early in game (C1) - pretty excessive if you look at the 9 page cycle, and difficult to maintain across PMs, thread, and doc, and comfort with switching wagons at a point Elims might have gone wtf no. Also, DB and no C1 kill - expected to help Elims gun ideals IMO, since surviving a kill can very well elevate you an Ideal.

So here's the thing. Mat died at 2ED, meaning that theoretically, this didn't happen. But, and here's the kicker:

-We have Aeo's word for her not targeting anyone C1. If Aeo is in question, then this cannot be considered credible.
-Devo targeted Mat C1 with a RB. I think this is prima facie plausible regardless of Mat's alignment due to Devo's claim to be 4EC now. I don't think this is too clear about Devo's alignment.
-I targeted Mat C1 with my SW message spam.

Minimally, two of these actions were necessary for Mat to have become 2ED. So what I'm saying is that we just don't really know if Aeo hit Mat C1 to help level him up or not, since Progression would be a real priority for that team. Compatible with an Aeo/Devo world.

At this juncture, has to be in pool.

But TJ bhai - you propose E!Wit. Who do you consider Wit's most likely E!partner?

[|TJ| he/him]

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

-I targeted Mat C1 with my SW message spam.

 

Wait, I received an anon message at the end of C1 as well, how is it possible?

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

But TJ bhai - you propose E!Wit. Who do you consider Wit's most likely E!partner?

Aeo tbh. In their post voting on me, they're hung up on me or Devo and barely mention Wit. If I had time, I'll look into Aeo-Wit interactions from previous cycles and well mentions of each other in their posts. 

7 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

• Wit seems like a leftover in the calculus. Unless TJ and Devo both are village (which is like, omega unlikely), wit isn't likely to be elim. I would look at E!TJ first, if he flips v, check out Wit. If TJ flips e, Wit is a  Villager   unless we're simply being outplayed.

Idk why this is the way to go because Wit should have way more content to analyse than me. 

[Kasimir he/him]

13 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Wait, I received an anon message at the end of C1 as well, how is it possible?

Let me introduce you to the rules, bhai

Quote

Cohesion—Knights using this Surge can use Cohesion to alter the fundamental structure of inanimate objects, leaving engraved messages for people to find. Can put anonymous messages in each cycle’s writeup, and use an action to send anonymous five-word messages to any number of players.

Emphases mine.

I was making art ok. So much wonderful art!

14 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Aeo tbh. In their post voting on me, they're hung up on me or Devo and barely mention Wit. If I had time, I'll look into Aeo-Wit interactions from previous cycles and well mentions of each other in their posts. 

Any particular other reasons why you think E!Wit? I notice you were on E!Wit C2 but that's arguably also LHF.

[STINK he/him]

Also I only just opened the Stoneward message expecting another alliteration fiesta but uh nope that is most certainly not what's in there

[|TJ| he/him]

50 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Any particular other reasons why you think E!Wit? I notice you were on E!Wit C2 but that's arguably also LHF.

The thing you mentioned about how they said the statement they made was similar to my defence in LG96, I agreed with you on that. It felt they were doing the same thing I was. I was just a lot more casual about it because I knew it was futile. 

[Kasimir he/him]

9 minutes ago, STINK said:

Also I only just opened the Stoneward message expecting another alliteration fiesta but uh nope that is most certainly not what's in there

I did think there was a chance I'd get shot. Who was I kidding...the Elims ain't touching me because Stoneward ain't a priority I'm just a Tineye on stilts wielding a vacuum cleaner

7 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

The thing you mentioned about how they said the statement they made was similar to my defence in LG96, I agreed with you on that. It felt they were doing the same thing I was. I was just a lot more casual about it because I knew it was futile. 

Hmm.

@Fifth Scholar - Can I please confirm Mat's flip is correct, Mr GM sir >>

[STINK he/him]

Imagine if Fifth comes in and clarifies whoopsies Matrim was loyal this whole time that'd be crazy

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, STINK said:

Imagine if Fifth comes in and clarifies whoopsies Matrim was loyal this whole time that'd be crazy

Bro I wanna get off Fifth and STINK's wild ride pls kthx