Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[Araris Valerian]

24 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It fell apart, yeah, when I told him how bad it was :P. A weak push doesn't mean it's e/e, just that it was a weak push. I guess your point is that it does >>

My point is that it makes sense in both worlds. Mechanically e!you seems likely, and I’m just demonstrating (partly to myself) that it’s compatible with what went down in the thread D1

 

1 hour ago, DeTess said:

JNV just got replaced for inactivity so it's highly unlikely they submitted an action this night, which means that, assuming 2 elims remaining, they can't be teamed with Araris (as Araris was roleblocked), and you going after them means I don't think they can be teamed with you either. And running wit the assumption that one of Mat or Araris is evil, JNV not being teamed up with either of you means they must be village.

But I also just reread and apparently @Steeldancerused glowsap to track illwei and they didn't do anything this night. In that case illwei and araris can't be the last two elims either, which means one of the following must be true:

• There are three elims left (unlikely but not impossible imo)
• TJ was hit by a village crossbow (seriously, if this happened, please claim)
• Araris and Mat are both village (unlikely I think, as it means there is a lot of village protective power)
• Mat is an elim.

Or Steel is lying, right? Unless I’m forgetting some reason Steel is cleared. And like Devo pointed out, JNV could have sent in the kill as well, so we probably don’t want to use the assumption that he didn’t for mech analysis. Too easy to get burned.

[Mat]

And that’s why I wanted to clear out the N3 pool. Too many other weird things if we open it up.

[Walin]

Man, every time I start a game I am baffled by how you all can make so many connections and keep track of them. I think I'm going to have to become literate in spreadsheets in order to try to mimic all that skill on my own.

I just caught up on reading JNV's posts and any posts that mention JNV (just scrolled through every page while hitting ctrl-F for "jnv"); I don't really have anything to say. I'll just play parkour on and off the chariots until a bandwagon emerges and I can hop on that. (i.e. I'll just look at the read that I like the most and follow that one until there's a clear majority-winner read)

So with that strategy in mind, I'll vote Mat even though he had good rebuttals for the arguments of e!him. Unfortunately, the arguments were better, and I judge them to have won over the rebuttals.

-------------------

Jen woke up underneath a tree, a couple stones' throws off the main path. She had made it to her house, but it had clearly been broken into, so she only slept there one night before gathering some supplies and journeying for a bigger settlement. There were rumors of banditry in the area, but she hadn't expected it to reach her, far as she was from any settlements. She would have to find work, and buy laquer and silver to repair her protections. Hopefully soon, she would rest easy again.

Well, as easy as anyone in the Forests could. 

[Alvron]

13 hours ago, DeTess said:

@Alvronwhy did you say that Araris was guaranteed to be evil last turn?

Because he is.   II have no idea if he's evil or not but statistics say he is.
Every game Araris, Devotary and I play together, at least one of is always evil. Since I know I'm not evil and Devotary seems not to be, logic and statistics say Araris has to be.  
It's not proof or anything like that.  I know at some stage it will happen where we are all village but still, odds are Araris is evil.  And I'm all about the odds.  

11 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I roleblocked Araris, so he didn't submit the kill.

Stop showing Araris is likely village.  It really hurts my theory.

[---]

Angleshooting is not good but walin theoretically recieved PMs for both steel and jnv

There's probably at least one in alv/araris, and one in mat/araris.

Araris

EDIT:

18 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Huh. Interesting.

Illwei took no action last turn. 

"Interesting" lol

Edited May 11, 2023 by Illwei

[Araris Valerian]

4 hours ago, Illwei said:

Araris

But the only reason you think there is an elim between myself and Mat is because of a claim that I made without prompting. Why does e!me claim Silver Bones to Kas in our PM? (The context of the claim was explaining my D2 vote on Mat, but again, e!me doesn’t want to mess with that POE because it just gets me killed after Mat flips v)

[Mat]

8 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

But the only reason you think there is an elim between myself and Mat is because of a claim that I made without prompting. Why does e!me claim Silver Bones to Kas in our PM? (The context of the claim was explaining my D2 vote on Mat, but again, e!me doesn’t want to mess with that POE because it just gets me killed after Mat flips v)

Why doesn’t e!me claim SE when it very well could have saved Aman?

[DeTess]

Still tired an not feeling to well, so I'm not really up to do post analysis yet. There was some other mech stuff I wanted to run this cycle though. With the various claims we can actually account for the actions of quite a few players last night:

• TKN
• Mat
• Araris - got roleblocked
• Illwei - did nothing according to steeldancer glowpaste
• Alpha
• Detess
• JNV/Walin - got replaced, highly unlikely to have taken any action
• steeldancer - (I think glowpaste doesn't also take the night action, does it @Elandera?)
• Alvron
• devotary - roleblocked araris

So that leaves a mech PoE for the TJ kill of:

• TKN
• Mat
• Alpha
• Detess
• Steel
• Alvron

With TKN unlikely to have done so given how instrumental they were to bringing Archer down, and not including myself either. I initially thought steel could be cleared as well, but looking at the rules again glowpaste seems to take a day action, not a night one.

So the two PoE's that each have to containt at least 1 elims are:

N3:

• Illwei
• Mat
• JNV/Walin

N5:

• Mat
• Alpha
• Steel
• Alvron

Mat is the only common point to both of them. Therefore, if Mat is not evil, there are two elims in the group <Illwei, JNV/walin, Alpha, steel, alvron>, and still going with the 1 of mat and Araris must be evil, that also means that if Mat is village, there must be three elims.

I am unsure if 5 elims makes sense. There have been a lot of protective items, but the elims also had a shade expert which gave them an extra life, so a 5 elim team would have 6 lives and required 6 lynches, while only allowing for 3 successful mislynches before Lilo.

 

edit:

8 hours ago, Illwei said:

There's probably at least one in alv/araris, and one in mat/araris.

why do you think there is one in alv/araris?

Edited May 11, 2023 by DeTess

[Steeldancer]

Glowpaste is a thing you do during the day, which then tracks the player during the night. Bit weird imo but it's fine. 

Yeah no duh I'm not cleared, I've been inactive the whole game it'd be suspicious if somehow I WERE cleared. That being said I'm not lying. I targeted illwei because she was on the list of people who possibly submitted the kill. That's why I was hesitant to mention the item, I didn't want to obfuscate my results by anybody knowing what I was going for. 

Anyway yay I did one whole thing. 

Beware, I cannot guarantee my activity after today. Tears of the kingdom is coming out and I am fully anticipating it eating up any and all of my time lol

[Araris Valerian]

7 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Why doesn’t e!me claim SE when it very well could have saved Aman?

Because it doesn’t make much sense for there to be 2 village SEs, and since your team would guess a village one exists, so eventually you’d guarantee you and Aman both getting exed with no real gain for your team. And I’m not sure you would have saved Aman regardless, though I’m a bit fuzzy on the details of what could have made him innocent there. Aman getting blocked plus a lack of a death was fairly incriminating.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

34 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

And I’m not sure you would have saved Aman regardless, though I’m a bit fuzzy on the details of what could have made him innocent there. Aman getting blocked plus a lack of a death was fairly incriminating.

Mat would have claimed protecting Kas, with the implication that the killer didn't go insane because they had iron will + shade protection (which Aman did) or silver bones. I would have been suspicious of such a claim but wouldn't jump immediately to killing Mat and Aman.

[Araris Valerian]

11 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Mat would have claimed protecting Kas, with the implication that the killer didn't go insane because they had iron will + shade protection (which Aman did) or silver bones. I would have been suspicious of such a claim but wouldn't jump immediately to killing Mat and Aman.

Yeah but that would have backfired when the village SE claimed (kind of irrelevant that it happened to be Kas) because 2 village SE seems a little busted. It would have just been a stalling tactic, and unless there are 5 elims we would have figured it out before exlo.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

12 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah but that would have backfired when the village SE claimed (kind of irrelevant that it happened to be Kas)

Kas did say in PM that he wouldn't have claimed if Mat said he was an SE.

[Mat]

You might as well say the same for me claiming Silver Bones— from your pov what’s the functional difference for an elim when in the last run of this game there was a village of both? I think the PM exclusive claim, the one that had to be outed, is the more iffy one.

Claiming SE would have saved Aman because he would have known he was RBd from the start of the cycle. I could have claimed to have protected him before Devo ever claimed, and she might not have ever claimed at all.

Edit: Suddenly am wondering about the possibility of a Steel/Illwei team

Maybe shove Walin in there too

Edited May 11, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Claiming SE would have saved Aman because he would have known he was RBd from the start of the cycle. I could have claimed to have protected him before Devo ever claimed, and she might not have ever claimed at all.

The problem with this argument is that we know the elims have a SE. So we know that, whoever they are, they chose to not claim.

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

The problem with this argument is that we know the elims have a SE. So we know that, whoever they are, they chose to not claim.

That’s a bad argument because it applies to literally everyone except for Kas. Only one SE claimed, so the other obviously didn’t. So? My claim was so far in advance of all of these stipulations that there wasn’t really a downside for e!me claiming SE. Your claim, on the other hand, wasn’t.

[DeTess]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That’s a bad argument because it applies to literally everyone except for Kas. Only one SE claimed, so the other obviously didn’t. So? My claim was so far in advance of all of these stipulations that there wasn’t really a downside for e!me claiming SE. Your claim, on the other hand, wasn’t.

So what is your argument exactly?

Is it "I didn't claim SE D1 so I can't be the e!SE", or is it "I didn't claim SE D2 to protect Aman so I can't be the e!SE"? Because the second argument is countered by the fact that no one claimed SE to protect Aman that day.
Anyway, just because you're not the e!SE doesn't mean you're not an elim (which goes for Araris as well). I actually think a four-man elim team with two sets of silver bones is more likely than a 5-man team with 1 set.

[Mat]

17 minutes ago, DeTess said:

So what is your argument exactly?

Is it "I didn't claim SE D1 so I can't be the e!SE", or is it "I didn't claim SE D2 to protect Aman so I can't be the e!SE"? Because the second argument is countered by the fact that no one claimed SE to protect Aman that day.
Anyway, just because you're not the e!SE doesn't mean you're not an elim (which goes for Araris as well). I actually think a four-man elim team with two sets of silver bones is more likely than a 5-man team with 1 set.

It’s the second. I don’t really think that’s a counter because I was in the unique position of having just been exed, meaning I was claiming anyway. That would have made a difference, whereas the unclaimed SE would have had to come out of nowhere.

[Araris Valerian]

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That’s a bad argument because it applies to literally everyone except for Kas. Only one SE claimed, so the other obviously didn’t. So? My claim was so far in advance of all of these stipulations that there wasn’t really a downside for e!me claiming SE. Your claim, on the other hand, wasn’t.

The point is that it applies to literally anyone. You said your lack of claim shows you are not the e!SE. But doesn’t the fact I didn’t claim SE to save Aman do the same? Since the argument applies equally to everyone, it’s irrelevant for trying to pick out the actual SE.

Edit: I realize that you already address this in your response to DeTess, and yeah, the fact you’d already claimed SB does mean that e!you would be more likely to claim SE. But it’s also possible you didn’t work that option out until after your SB claim. *sigh* Maybe the elims are hoarding a crossbow and then it would make sense to have 3 extra village lives and a team of 4. Need some other people to weigh in because I don’t really have more thoughts here.

Edited May 11, 2023 by Araris Valerian

[Elandera]

12 hours ago, DeTess said:

(I think glowpaste doesn't also take the night action, does it @Elandera?)

Correct. It only uses a Day action.

[Araris Valerian]

It’s not in the rules that I can tell, so maybe this isn’t a great defense, but I am a Writer (blasted GMs always giving me PM roles ), and it seems odd to me that  the elims would have a vanilla and a double-role player.

[The Unknown Ajah]

7 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

It’s not in the rules that I can tell, so maybe this isn’t a great defense, but I am a Writer (blasted GMs always giving me PM roles ), and it seems odd to me that  the elims would have a vanilla and a double-role player.

What?

What's your second role?

[---]

Why are you preemptively defending against an accusation that you have two roles?

[Mat]

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

But it’s also possible you didn’t work that option out until after your SB claim.

They would have had like a full 24 hours before Devo claimed, and I dare say I think Aman and Archer could have figured out the possibility :P.

4 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

It’s not in the rules that I can tell, so maybe this isn’t a great defense, but I am a Writer (blasted GMs always giving me PM roles ), and it seems odd to me that  the elims would have a vanilla and a double-role player.

I spy an elim slip?

Silver Bones is an ability, not a role. To me this looks like e!SE Araris wanting to claim to have his e!Writer teammate’s role while adding a bonus defense, but he forgot that SB isn’t a role as he had full SE abilities.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

Whoa

I logged on to vote Mat, I have been thinking hard on who to vote today because the last few times I voted with half of a brain

But that is really suspicious Araris.