Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[Sart he/him]

If I've understood the mechanical discussion correctly, it appears the most likely scenario is that the White Fox blocked the elim kill. As other have suggested, they should probably claim halfway through the cycle. That gets us a free kill on an elim, and a confirmed villager. In addition, we can protect the White Fox with the Shade Master, making the elims very unlikely to kill them. This isn't quite a follow the cop scenario, but it gets close.

@Elandera Can a player start out with the Items the Thief can find? Like for instance, can they start out with Silver Dust?

In order to move discussion along, while still being adjacent to mechanical discussion, I'm going to put a vote on Matrim's Dice. @Matrim's Dice Considering that the chance of a kill backfiring on the elims is so high, I suspect that they have some form of extra life. Mat surviving the kill instantly makes me suspicious of him.

[Mat he/him]

11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Also in agreement with mat, I like the finality of Araris' comment.

That would be disagreement :P.

Is your list of people just village reads?

3 minutes ago, Sart said:

In order to move discussion along, while still being adjacent to mechanical discussion, I'm going to put a vote on Matrim's Dice. @Matrim's Dice Considering that the chance of a kill backfiring on the elims is so high, I suspect that they have some form of extra life. Mat surviving the kill instantly makes me suspicious of him.

I suppose after participating in so many failed role exes it’d be fitting for me to finally be on the other side of one

But seriously, the chance of it backfiring is, what, five percent? That’s not ‘a lot’ by any means.

[---]

Mat, do you have any observations/comments/concerns on the game that don't revolve around Kas right now?

I remember you being pretty defensive a bit back but don't really remember your more recent games we've played. None of your posts have any observations/thoughts in them, half of which are defenses for things people aren't neccesarily attacking you for (besides the one you just posted.)

Additionally:
 - Why Ash?
 - Thoughts on Kas?
 - Where would you rank Araris in your reads relative to Ash?
 - What would an optimal opening been from Araris or anyone else, someone coming in almost halfway through day and posting something while the current conversation is about Kas?

Edited April 28, 2023 by Illwei
closing bracket

[Sart he/him]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That would be disagreement :P.

Is your list of people just village reads?

I suppose after participating in so many failed role exes it’d be fitting for me to finally be on the other side of one

But seriously, the chance of it backfiring is, what, five percent? That’s not ‘a lot’ by any means.

You're misreading the rules. The chance increases by 5% every time a kill successfully goes through. The odds of an elim dying after an elim performs 4 kills is close to 40%. If you get up to 5 kills, it's closer to 60%. This ignores Villagers dying from their own crossbow shots, but it's still a significant penalty for the elim team to avoid. Hence, an extra life, or some way to ignore the shades.

[Elandera she/her]

27 minutes ago, Sart said:

Can a player start out with the Items the Thief can find? Like for instance, can they start out with Silver Dust?

Yes.

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Mat, do you have any observations/comments/concerns on the game that don't revolve around Kas right now?

I remember you being pretty defensive a bit back but don't really remember your more recent games we've played. None of your posts have any observations/thoughts in them, half of which are defenses for things people aren't neccesarily attacking you for (besides the one you just posted.)

Additionally:
 - Why Ash?
 - Thoughts on Kas?
 - Where would you rank Araris in your reads relative to Ash?
 - What would an optimal opening been from Araris or anyone else, someone coming in almost halfway through day and posting something while the current conversation is about Kas?

Do I even have any recent posts that revolve around Kas? Lol

I think that’s underselling me a little bit. I did more D1 :P. I’m busier lately than back when you were active, so I only have time for these random comments during the normal day. Tonight or tomorrow I can do a skittles rainbow or something.

-As I said when I voted him, disengagement thing/similarity to Dingo, but also kind of a see what happens vote. Rehashing yesterday’s trains is fine but there are elims among the rest of people. Obviously I’m slightly biased as far as the trains from yesterday go, but like if Archer went over today that’s fine with me. He still feels weird but I’ve never been able to read Archer. Ash/Archer works as a team, anyway.

-You just asked me for not Kas reads but ok— he seems fine. There were a few angles he went for yesterday I found strange (his TJ progression, for one) but I also kinda just think he was attacked so /shrug 

-Less elimmy but also a more put together read, less gut I guess?

-The kind of opening was fine, I mainly just didn’t like the CC comment. Felt like a way to avoid giving reads.

[---]

17 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Do I even have any recent posts that revolve around Kas? Lol

The whole conversation about the attack/nk/insanity/voting was a conversation revolving around Kas

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

Could I get a VC?

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

By the way, my light assumption in the failed NK of you scenario was that your partner (and maybe the Writer) were village. 

I'd consider that a reasonable assumption if it were a Lurch, given the high commitment cost of Lurching in this game for the Village. Less so if roleblock. No idea about the Writer but Writer-sama is my new BFF for hooking me up with those delicious PMs >:)

Not that it particularly matters at this point, but that'd be my reads.

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

TJ
Kasimir
Sart
JNV
Detess

Question for you: why TJ and JNV? I'd concur with those reads, but I'd like to know why anyway, to feel more confident about my credences there.

1 hour ago, Sart said:

In order to move discussion along, while still being adjacent to mechanical discussion, I'm going to put a vote on Matrim's Dice. @Matrim's Dice Considering that the chance of a kill backfiring on the elims is so high, I suspect that they have some form of extra life. Mat surviving the kill instantly makes me suspicious of him.

Question for you. You seem to be basing this vote entirely off mech and your follow the cop plan requires the Shade Expert to be alive. All Shade Experts have an extra life.

何が　WOW WOW　この空に届くのだろう

...Have you considered that going after players who demonstrably have Silver Bones just on the basis of having Silver Bones is how you kill your Shade Experts?

6 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

This is relatively high engagement for me. I've been having trouble caring about the results of recent games so am trying a little harder this one. Mech is always easier than looking at players.

I respect this response. I also have to admit that when I look at your most recent past Village game in which you had difficulty and subbed out (LG93), I still see more suspicions/thoughts engagement from you and very little mech. I will go over and catalogue this one more time, but I think your mech ratio is very high.

だけど　WOW WOW　明日の予定もはからない

I think

Edited to add: Nope I don't remember what I was gonna say. Thanks COVID, it's been a blast >>

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[Elandera she/her]

32 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

Could I get a VC?

I think this is accurate.

Ashbringer (2) - Matrim's Dice, Illwei, Kasimir
Araris (1) - Archer
Alvron (1) - Ashbringer
Matrim (1) - Sart

[Kasimir he/him]

39 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Ashbringer (2) - Matrim's Dice, Illwei, Kasimir

I will do my civic duty, Nightwatcher. I will vote those I think are sus.

Edited to add:

A final footnote to the meta discussion:

There's one edge case in which these things don't really work, and that's if the roleblocker got redirected, FWIW. You're not told if you're redirected, according to Elan. In that world, it's imperative that the redirecter come clean. I think, if I'm not wrong, that the OG target can actually prove to have not been roleblocked, because the White Fox prevents you from taking an action the following Day as well, so ability to use VitC proves you weren't actually RBed.

I wasn't sure if I wanted to bring this up because I feel it unnecessarily opens a loophole for any caught Elim to struggle free from, but I think the loophole can be closed so it's worth noting.

@Elandera Is this a correct assessment of the White Fox roleblock rules, with regard to VitC and not knowing who you ended up roleblocking?

Edited to add 2:

Wait I'm an idiot ignore me, White Fox is first on OoA >>

Edited to add 3:

On Devo:

Overall diagnosis: Gonna come right out and say it - I don't/no longer feel confident in an E!Devo read. I do think there's substantively less player analysis from Devo in this game, but charitably, you could argue it's a swamping effect, given that: multiple players queried her, and there's juicy mech to get into, which makes the proportions look worse. I feel like you could make an argument either way, actually. I like the way Devo has been selectively engaging on or at least pursuing some queries, which I take to be closer to V!Devo dgaf.

I think functionally a  for me, with a commitment to revise with more information.

Spoiler

I'm aware Devo definitely has been struggling with getting into the game, cf. LG90, LG93. It's not really ideal I can't pull from LG92 but it's a godforsaken hellscape I will - sigh, trawl later, alright.

So I think it's best to take LG93 as a baseline instead, for the sake of fairness.

V!Devo #1:

Devo mentioning she's struggling getting into the game, in response to Sart's poke.

V!Devo #2:

Direct game-relevant analysis. Perhaps it helps there's very little mech going on in Mat's game, but that being said - @s Alpha, comments on the trains, and votes for Araris. As it turns out, she's prescient because he's Evil.

V!Devo #3:

Comment on the state of the Ash train and theorises about potential Ash teamings.

V!Devo #4:

Response to question; direct commitment to V!Ash as more plausible read of situation.

V!Devo #5:

Maybe instead of mech, let's call this game event discussion/analysis. Note on Wiz and Alpha.

V!Devo #6:

Reads and a vote. Last post of the game, to be replaced by Elan.

Direct Comparison to This Game:

Devo #1:

Direct response to VitC question. Fair; I did want to know, and I appreciate it!

Devo #2:

Substantiation of VitC question/analysis.

Devo #3:

VitC engagement with Archer, question to me on whether I noticed the state of Aloha votes (lol no sorry >>), which I'll take to be proactive.

Devo #4:

Comments on likely distro. Comments on vote state that Elims likely want contested votes and have scattered votes, in response to an @ from Aman. Reply to me on the Mobborn issue.

Devo #5:

Replies to question on likelihood of top three trains being on Villagers. Ties to see what Mat will pick, comments that Mat's refusal to self-pres looks good.

Devo #6:

Response to Mat's challenge on her vote.

Devo #7:

Asks about whether I missed Archer's vote.

Devo #8:

Comments on insanity, the tie issue, and likely Elim protection from Shades/set-up. Mat and self-pres as well.

Devo #9:

Response to question. Would have voted Archer, leans against SB!Mat being the only Elim in there.

Devo #10:

Response to question. Alpha > TKN, Archer > DeTess > Mat of the triad for suspicions.

Devo #11:

Question about the spellbook issue.

Devo #12:

Wargaming the scenarios. Thank you for the catch. Notes that Alv was disinterested in the final result.

Devo #13:

Comment on Shade Expert claiming in a world where protection has been expended.

Side-comment: Re-reading LG93 definitely makes me feel more alright with my Ash vote, seeing as Ash got charged with apathy that game too, but was still a bit more proactive.

Also as another side-comment: In the process of going over past Devo and a touch of past Aman, I have decided I am eminently alright with a FAFO vote on Mat at this juncture.

@Devotary of Spontaneity: Question for you. Suppose E!SB!Mat or even E!SE!Mat. In that world, how do you see the D1 voting panning out, resulting in Mat's getting exed? You commented on this:

Quote

Expecting e!Shade!Mat to have been protected isn't a foregone conclusion with it being 13-4 in this setup. There's only so much the elims can do here. I would have expected Mat to be more willing to vote in self-preservation and even bus e!DeTess in this scenario though.

Do you still consider Archer to be more likely Evil than DeTess or Mat?

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Sorry guys, I've just been feeling kinda crummy the last few days. Should still be able to participate/vote, but probably won't be super interactive in the thread.

I'm village reading Alpha. His last post from N1 has only 1 village read but several suspicions, and that aligns more with a village mindset IMO than the reverse.

Don't think anything has changed about Archer; I'd exe him again today (except for the next line).

It's worth noting that (probably) everyone who used Voice claimed in thread. I feel like non-voting elims have a decent incentive to use Voice during a close vote just to throw in some chaos. So, contrary to my prior post, I'm actually in favor of an anti-CC, in regards to JNV, TKN, and Steel. Alv as well, since his vote definitely failed to create chaos.

I guess I'm voting Mat. Given the number of players this game, I think it makes sense for the elims to have a set of Silver Bones. Elims wouldn't need to Voice to save him, given the EOD votes. And Illwei thinks he could be teamed with Archer. There was also something about Mat tunneling, but I never really got that feel for him. Especially on D1, usually a tunnel becomes clear over more than just one cycle.

[Kasimir he/him]

26 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

It's worth noting that (probably) everyone who used Voice claimed in thread. I feel like non-voting elims have a decent incentive to use Voice during a close vote just to throw in some chaos. So, contrary to my prior post, I'm actually in favor of an anti-CC, in regards to JNV, TKN, and Steel. Alv as well, since his vote definitely failed to create chaos.

Could you clarify what you mean by anti-CC?

[---]

@Araris Valerian Ftr I never said that Mat and Archer were likely teamed, and I actually think that Mat is rather unaligned with both him and Detess.

The only way i would reconsider that at this moment in time is if both Detess and Archer dropped dead, flipped Cult, and then were somehow proved to having used vitc as the other vote on Matrim. Which I find highly unlikely. :P.

EDIT:

@Kasimir I have not forgotten about your question nor am I ignoring it, I have just foolishly put myself in a position rn where It's probably in village's best interest for me to not make reads lol. I will respond later tonight.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Illwei

[Kasimir he/him]

8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@Kasimir I have not forgotten about your question nor am I ignoring it, I have just foolishly put myself in a position rn where It's probably in village's best interest for me to not make reads lol. I will respond later tonight.

Appreciated, and take your time.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

22 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@Araris Valerian Ftr I never said that Mat and Archer were likely teamed, and I actually think that Mat is rather unaligned with both him and Detess.

You're right, that was Ash and Archer. Still going to stick with the vote for now.

28 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Could you clarify what you mean by anti-CC?

Just that there is a group of low-active/non-voters that I'm not interested in exeing today.

[Archer he/him]

31 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

You're right, that was Ash and Archer. Still going to stick with the vote for now.

Just that there is a group of low-active/non-voters that I'm not interested in exeing today.

I'm confused about a lot of what you're saying. You seem to want to vote for me, but maybe feel that doing that twice in a row isn't a good look? Then you're sticking with a vote on Mat despite that change in information (worth noting that Mat voted for me), so it's essentially just a Rolexe. But if Mat is evil, why didn't they self pres onto DeTess? Better yet, get a teammate to VitC onto me to give them a 1/3 chance of getting exed instead of 1/2 in the event of someone like Kas doing what they did. Actually they wouldn't have known my vote was moving in the post where they committed to staying put because they ninjad me. 

Then there's this not CC thing. Why would you word it like that - its presenting going after low profile folk, but not horribly inactive, as only being as good as a CC. I don't have a lot of elim suspects outside of the mid and low profile tiers, so I find this suspicious. It might not be a productive route of inquiry, but entirely discounting putting any pressure on them seems convenient if say two elims are in that group, which might explain the lack of swings yesterday. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Someone please remind me (not shortly after this post, but tomorrow :P) to start thinking about this game again tomorrow. Had a really solid writing day and am now ahead of my schedule for the week, so I shouldn't have any excuse.

Thank you <3 g'night o7

[Tea Leaf]

Hi! So what did I miss? Who was shot with a crossbow, can I have one, everyone pool your crossbows with me! Or better yet, give me the things that make you go insane (Like I need them).

So, either what happened? Mat

[Kasimir he/him]

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Someone please remind me (not shortly after this post, but tomorrow :P) to start thinking about this game again tomorrow. Had a really solid writing day and am now ahead of my schedule for the week, so I shouldn't have any excuse.

Thank you <3 g'night o7

Thank you for subscribing to Patamon Alarm Services!

Your reminder has been scheduled for 9AM Patamon Time which is whenever I bloody remember tomorrow >>

Type <UNSUB> to unsubscribe.

Edited to add:

7 minutes ago, The Last Fæ said:

Hi! So what did I miss? Who was shot with a crossbow, can I have one, everyone pool your crossbows with me! Or better yet, give me the things that make you go insane (Like I need them).

Why do you think anyone was shot with a crossbow?

Edited April 29, 2023 by Kasimir

[Tea Leaf]

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why do you think anyone was shot with a crossbow?

Don't know, I hope though. Besides if someone was it implies the existence of a crossbow, which I want.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

What does rolexe mean?

[Mat he/him]

Just now, The Last Fæ said:

Don't know, I hope though. Besides if someone was it implies the existence of a crossbow, which I want.

Would you shoot me with a crossbow if you had one?

[Tea Leaf]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Would you shoot me with a crossbow if you had one?

Nah. I would shoot all elims, obviously, if you are one I would not shoot you I would simply vote for you, Mat.

[---]

2 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

What does rolexe mean?

I believe it is a type of watch