Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

So... that's a yes, then?

imo no-voters hammering isn't really a worry when the people not voting are people who consistently don't vote D1/ever, if you know what I mean.

IDK I guess you could call it a potato/potayto difference but it felt a lot less about you specifically and a lot more about 'who tf in these three do I feel ok about final voting', given I feel it's a bit of a wash and don't have the SAN to compute the last minute voting changes.

Yes and no, I think. At seven people max, you can functionally get away with it. That's one hell of a big PoE, and the trains didn't get exceptionally huge until the very end. From my perspective, if V!Aman, that's doable. Finding one functional VM in that pool? Yikes.

Edited to add:

Tbh given the Silver Bones gate from your last Elim game under this ruleset, I can't say I'm thrilled by this new discovery :eyes:

Edited April 27, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

25 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ohhh right VitC can be used from no-vote to vote.

TKN then?

Edit: Are you admitting to secretly trying to kill me :eyes:

Unfortunately no. Didn't do anything, got on at rollover+30 minutes thinking about VitCing Archer or maybe doing something else , only to realise the cycle was closed.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Ooh someone voted on me anonymously, I feel special

Don't care about it though. If you've played with me long enough you know I hate day one. If you take issue with that, so be it. I should be more interesting during the next day. 

I still don't remember all the ins and outs of the mechanics, so instead of trying to memorize everything I'll assume that your guys's interpretation of what happened was correct.

[Mat he/him]

Yeah okay Steel is probably just village

[Kasimir he/him]

[Alvron]

8 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Ooh someone voted on me anonymously, I feel special

If it makes you feel really special, I'm the one that voted on you.
I placed the vote a couple of minutes after the game started primarily so could see how it was reflected in the write up.

Very nice to see a tie was achieved even with the secret vote mechanic.

[Mat he/him]

Okay for a second there with Kas' emote and the notif that told me Alv had posted I thought that Kas had voted Steel and Alv had voted me to get the tie lol

[Ashbringer he/him]

If you don't need the bones anymore could I borrow them?

Also does Insanity last a turn or a cycle? It reads a turn but there's really not many Day actions.

[Kasimir he/him]

25 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Yeah actually sorry I take this back. Shouldn't post when frustrated. 

[DeTess she/her]

So... hmmm. Kinda happy I didn't get lynched despite Archer hammering, which I think is a bit suspicious. If either of Mat or Archer ends up flipping elim I'd be very suspicious of the other one (note: I'm not necessarily super suspicious from that interaction right now, but if either of them flips elim I'll be a lot more suspicious). @ArcherWhat made you suspicious enough of me over mat to break the tie? looking at your posts I'm not getting the feeling you were significantly more suspicious of me over Mat, or am I mistaken?

Edited April 27, 2023 by DeTess

[Kasimir he/him]

Unless I'm tripping which is possible as I am still running a fever, I think this is more likely to imply V!Mat, barring certain worlds.

This is mildly embarrassing say the least...

[DeTess she/her]

32 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Unless I'm tripping which is possible as I am still running a fever, I think this is more likely to imply V!Mat, barring certain worlds.

If it wasn't for your hidden vote I'd agree as E!mat's team-mates would be looking to break the tie in his favor. However, there was your hidden vote, and someone did break the (apparent) tie in mat's favor, so I don't think this says anything about his alignment.

Edited April 27, 2023 by DeTess

[Kasimir he/him]

32 minutes ago, DeTess said:

If it wasn't for your hidden vote I'd agree as E!mat's team-mates would be looking to break the tie in his favor. However, there was your hidden vote, and someone did break the (apparent) tie in mat's favor, so I don't think this says anything about his alignment.

I'm not following your logic here. My hidden vote endangered Mat. This precludes an E/E world for Mat and me. As Devo noted, and several others can attest to, I was on at EoD so E!me could simply retract the order and let Archer kill you and not waste Mat's extra life in a Mat-me E/E world. There's a rejoinder you can make here, but it fails. 

I also did say barring certain worlds, because there is an E!Mat and E!Archer world, and to me that's the primary E!Mat world. But beyond that?

1. I ascribe very low credence to any world in which the Elim team has two Thugs. This slows the game down way too much. (See: AG9 precedent.) This also implies that the Elim team either has Silver Bones or has a Shade Expert. If they have a Shade Expert, Mat shouldn't remotely be endangered because that's an important role for their team given Wrath of the Shades and how much it affected the Mat-Araris team in the previous iteration of this ruleset.

2. If the Elim team only has one Thug (in whatever form), there's little gained risking wasting the life here just for distancing. Might as well have me vote Mat. Similarly, not much effort to save Mat going on beyond Archer. Devo deliberately endangered Mat. You could postulate the Elims have Silver Dust as well, and that's going to be their DK, but even then, no real apparent call to waste the life.

3. I think a worldview on which "Most possible worlds have V!Mat except for E!Archer/E!Mat" is good enough reason to suggest an overall V!read of Mat: it's essentially the argument that most relevant probabilities have Mat being V than E. 

4. You could argue the Elims didn't need to save Mat, but then you're also posulating that they were very willing to leave it to the capricity of EoD with the votes so often tied, anon voting, and a late Mat train. I'd argue there was also not that much urgency on the part of Mat to avoid the ML. He tried but I've seen desperate Mat before. I point back to the fact that Silver Bones is best not wasted on an unnecessary lynch, seeing as the Elims are the ones putting in the kill regularly and therefore most likely to incur the Wrasth of the Shades.

Edited to add:

Oh, and:

5. You could argue that the Elims did in fact put in a late order and retract it. But then given how late Archer's order came in, it practically demands: A. not actually caring, i.e. likely being in sevenpool, and B. being on at EoD.

Edited April 27, 2023 by Kasimir

[Illwei]

ouch no welcomes into the game

can someone explain what vitc is?

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

ouch no welcomes into the game

can someone explain what vitc is?

I'd welcome you but it's hell and I don't feel you wanna be welcomed to hell smh.

Voice in the Crowd. Sort of anon voting mech? You burn your Day action and cast a vote in your GM PM and this overrides anything you did or didn't say in thread. Anyone can use it. But you have a 1/5 chance of losing your vote, i.e. your vote becomes a no vote.

P.S. Arigato, Writer-sama! I will use the PM wisely  All the Digimemes!

Edited to add:

Spoiler

 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Kasimir

[DeTess she/her]

@KasimirI'm not sure why you're focusing on a situation where you and Mat are both elims, as I'm definitely not suggesting that, and as you pointed out, that situation makes very little sense given your hidden vote.

I guess I do agree that e!mat almost requires e!archer, but I'm not really seeing why that clears him? I'm not getting particularly strong village vibes from Archer. Also, with the elims staying away from a tiebreaker this could be kinda like a wounded gazelle gambit (look, no one intervened to save this person from the tie, therefore they must be village). I can still see enough ways for Mat to be an elim in the current situation to be willing to clear them based on the way the vote went down.

[Illwei]

Just now, Kasimir said:

I'd welcome you but it's hell and I don't feel you wanna be welcomed to hell smh.

but it's where we are there's no denying it

Oh I see it now i kept looking through the roles for it

 

I'd advise people to never use it, only 80% accuracy on being used and giving misinformation about the votes in thread isn't good in the early game, nor is being unreliable in the late game.

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, DeTess said:

@KasimirI'm not sure why you're focusing on a situation where you and Mat are both elims, as I'm definitely not suggesting that, and as you pointed out, that situation makes very little sense given your hidden vote.

I sort of am working by exclusion here? Just trying to think through the different possibilities and regardless of what I know of my own, it does have implications for Mat's alignment in my view.

4 minutes ago, DeTess said:

I guess I do agree that e!mat almost requires e!archer, but I'm not really seeing why that clears him? I'm not getting particularly strong village vibes from Archer. Also, with the elims staying away from a tiebreaker this could be kinda like a wounded gazelle gambit (look, no one intervened to save this person from the tie, therefore they must be village). I can still see enough ways for Mat to be an elim in the current situation to be willing to clear them based on the way the vote went down.

I don't disagree it could be a WGG - I just strongly lean against it, hence the probabilistic comment, because I kind of feel Wrath penalises the Elims more than the Village and so they should be more worried about it. Ironically, it's also why I V!read your response to Archer and felt ehhh about his side of that conversation - I felt like you were not really factoring that in, while Archer was, and that felt like it emerged more naturally from an Elim mindset.

I don't even think I'm saying clear - I'm happy to revise later on. We can make bad assumptions about Elim behaviour. That's the point of flagging assumptions as assumptions. But probabilistically, "Village in most possible worlds" is good enough for me to treat him as weak Patamon, barring evidence of any odd worlds, and it's concerning to me you're not steelmanning this line of thought.

Edited to add:

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I'd advise people to never use it, only 80% accuracy on being used and giving misinformation about the votes in thread isn't good in the early game, nor is being unreliable in the late game.

You couldn't have told me that yesterday? >>

Edited April 27, 2023 by Kasimir

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

You couldn't have told me that yesterday? >>

I assume someone already did and i read this as sarcasm, but just again for emphasis for the players I don't know yet

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Illwei said:

I assume someone already did and i read this as sarcasm, but just again for emphasis for the players I don't know yet

No, I was just joking. No one did.

[Illwei]

Just now, Kasimir said:

No, I was just joking. No one did.

I would have made a joke about making a post yesterday but i couldn't think of anything funny

[DeTess she/her]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I don't even think I'm saying clear - I'm happy to revise later on. We can make bad assumptions about Elim behaviour. That's the point of flagging assumptions as assumptions. But probabilistically, "Village in most possible worlds" is good enough for me to treat him as weak Patamon, barring evidence of any odd worlds, and it's concerning to me you're not steelmanning this line of thought.

I guess I don't really agree with this way of looking at it? Most players are villagers in the majority of possible distro's, so until I actually see some information about what the actual distro is like I don't really feel it's something I can base reads on. Like, if at some point in the future an elim gets executed and they where the shade expert or had silver bones I'd see that as a reason to be a lot less suspicious of mat, but until that happened I don't see it really pushing his alignment either way.

But you know, it's been years since I last played a village game so I might just be failing to understand the merits of your way of looking at it, or misinterpreting your read as stronger than it is.

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, DeTess said:

I guess I don't really agree with this way of looking at it? Most players are villagers in the majority of possible distro's, so until I actually see some information about what the actual distro is like I don't really feel it's something I can base reads on. Like, if at some point in the future an elim gets executed and they where the shade expert or had silver bones I'd see that as a reason to be a lot less suspicious of mat, but until that happened I don't see it really pushing his alignment either way.

But you know, it's been years since I last played a village game so I might just be failing to understand the merits of your way of looking at it, or misinterpreting your read as stronger than it is.

I think it's just different temperaments then. I don't mind making quick judgements and being wrong - the point is both damage control (don't claim to people you aren't dead certain of, and that requires a strength greater than say, something like this) and being careful about your assumptions so you revise when necessary. I accept I will be wrong; I just seek to be less wrong, or to revise adequately and correctly when the evidence calls for it. Which is basically Bayesian.

Whereas you don't want to make a hasty judgement and want to keep them in the default until you get something strong enough you are happy to base reads off, which is fair ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Ties don't result in no exes. I'm not understanding the context of this question.

Yes, I missed that ties don't result in no-exe since usually someone is mentioned as having survived. I did immediately assume that you had caused the tie you were unhappy about.

5 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Also does Insanity last a turn or a cycle? It reads a turn but there's really not many Day actions.

Just a turn, but the inability to vote gets fatal in the late game.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

1. I ascribe very low credence to any world in which the Elim team has two Thugs. This slows the game down way too much. (See: AG9 precedent.) This also implies that the Elim team either has Silver Bones or has a Shade Expert. If they have a Shade Expert, Mat shouldn't remotely be endangered because that's an important role for their team given Wrath of the Shades and how much it affected the Mat-Araris team in the previous iteration of this ruleset.

I would agree that it's likely the elims have at most one form of shade protection (dust, bones, expert) and a total of five lives. Since shade expert is leaning more village this game, it's less likely this role is elim (or elim exclusive), while silver bones is still a possibility. Expecting e!Shade!Mat to have been protected isn't a foregone conclusion with it being 13-4 in this setup. There's only so much the elims can do here. I would have expected Mat to be more willing to vote in self-preservation and even bus e!DeTess in this scenario though.

[Kasimir he/him]

49 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Yes, I missed that ties don't result in no-exe since usually someone is mentioned as having survived. I did immediately assume that you had caused the tie you were unhappy about.

I was specifically unhappy about what I thought was a no exe rule because I'm not usually this off the game in terms of rules, and triggering a no exe specifically would not be something I'm down for, so sort of. Just 'wtf Kas why.'

50 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I would agree that it's likely the elims have at most one form of shade protection (dust, bones, expert) and a total of five lives. Since shade expert is leaning more village this game, it's less likely this role is elim (or elim exclusive), while silver bones is still a possibility. Expecting e!Shade!Mat to have been protected isn't a foregone conclusion with it being 13-4 in this setup. There's only so much the elims can do here. I would have expected Mat to be more willing to vote in self-preservation and even bus e!DeTess in this scenario though.

I think, to try to spell out what troubles me:

I think it's sensible to be cautious of a WGG but the calculus differs in this game. Again, don't disagree it's a foregone conclusion but do think it has some degree of strength to it. (Anyone who wants to level accusations of motte and bailey tactics at this point should note that equivocation between 'clear' and 'defeasible strong read' is pretty much also strawmanning.) Add this to what I felt to be bad faith argumentation surrounding the meaning of 'clear' (IMO, something that stood out to me in light of how DeTess usually appears exceptionally good at offering grace to players, contrasting MR63 and Joe's MR with Bleeder, and I am not really sure where I stand anymore.

That to me is the only thing that is at stake here. I don't really care about the rest of it and believe it is fundamentally a distraction. That, and memories of getting FUDed so hard by Mat into ignoring Danex's clear in QF62 and the fact I tend to be wary of players who want to deny argumentative progress and slow the process of coalescing Village trust. I don't disagree it's a Village-sided tactic but I believe Elims can in fact weaponise it, and also have (hi Mat.)

Otherwise, it's just a potayto/potahto difference and while philosophically interesting in terms of a study of epistemic risk, not very interesting to this game.

There's probably a certain level of clarity that DeTess has, knowing what was going on behind one of the three lead trains, and I actually think that's pretty neat in a V!DeTess world. Which...I am probably overall trending towards? IDK. I do think there's a general shift in approach with MR63, and again, altercation with Archer.