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Compounding's Exact Mechanics and Limitations


Trusk'our

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This is a great reference thread!

I think Hemalurgic spike-granted Allomancy/Compounding drawing from Ruin is likely a slip of the tongue, but it *is* what the WoB as we have it says. (I think confirming that would be a good question for Brandon, actually.)

--

Re the Bands: even 1/16 of that spearhead is really very large as metalminds go. Much larger than a ring or earring. Wedding rings are like 1 to 10 grams, and they're largely gold which is one of the densest metals there is - over 19 grams per cubic centimeter.

The 7 other pure metals used in Feruchemy/Allomancy are all less than half that - copper, zinc, tin, iron, cadmium, and chromium are all in the 7-9 grams/cc range; aluminum is weirdly light at about 2.3. 

Earrings are generally very low mass too. Only the larger bracelets/bracers, like a Keeper's copperminds and maybe Wax's iron ones (he stores most of the time), might be over an ounce and comparable to 1/16 of the Bands.

And, yeah, I think the Bands are the only full metalmind we've ever seen.

Edited by cometaryorbit
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11 minutes ago, Mistchemist16 said:

I mean, Nalthis really awards making mechs since Breaths work by human shape. Use a Breath powered exoskeleton covered in metalminds and perhaps some Roshar fabrials or a Taldain sand blaster. Maybe the real twist is that era 4 is a mech anime.

In all seriousness, what are the best attriubtes to tap in a vehicle/mech? Speed is the only one that doesn’t seem worthwhile unless there’s a way to transfer that to the mech. Zinc, bronze and chromium are all good candidates. You could probably use copper for the user’s manual. Bass, cadmium, and bendalloy make nice life support. You can also just go full anime and add electrum determination. 

enhanced senses with tin could be useful as in most situations

maybe some of the spiritual metals would allow you to apply Steel speed to the mech with identity or connection shenanigans. maybe if you saw the mech as being a part of your body in the same way you would see your hand as part of your body.

 

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42 minutes ago, cometaryorbit said:

This is a great reference thread!

Why thank you! It's been an absolute pleasure :D

42 minutes ago, cometaryorbit said:

I think Hemalurgic spike-granted Allomancy/Compounding drawing from Ruin is likely a slip of the tongue, but it *is* what the WoB as we have it says. (I think confirming that would be a good question for Brandon, actually.)

Warbreker and SA spoilers

Spoiler

It's definitely possible, but another form of proof that Hemalurgic spikes actually draw from Ruin would be Nightblood. Despite the fact that its Investiture comes from many different sources (Bio-Chromatic Breaths, Stormlight, and Fused souls at the very least) which originally had many different Intents, it only bleeds black Investiture instead of the other colors, and there isn't even a hint of corrupt-red Investiture.

I think that this means that it actually converts the Investiture fully to its own Intent, perhaps because to destroy is to change it into something new (perhaps it lines up with Ruin's own Intent?). I think that Hemalurgic spikes may do the same thing.

But, you're right. It could have been a slip of Brandon's tounge, so we should wait and see before closing ourselves off to new ideas.

Edited by Trusk'our
Forgot that we were in the Mistborn forum and need a spoiler screen.
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I think (Warbreaker/Stormlight spoilers)

Spoiler

Nightblood is more a life form eating Investiture (which can easily use different kinds) than a case of powering a magic system with a different source (which is hard). Vasher's eyes don't turn red when he's living off Stormlight, but that's not his native Investiture either. White sand lichen recharged with Stormlight in RoW doesn't turn red.

My concern with Ruin-Allomancy is that switching power sources for Invested Arts is meant to be hard; I think it would have been mentioned (say in the HoA epigraphs or TLM) if it worked that way.

Edited by cometaryorbit
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11 minutes ago, cometaryorbit said:

My concern with Ruin-Allomancy is that switching power sources for Invested Arts is meant to be hard; I think it would have been mentioned (say in the HoA epigraphs or TLM) if it worked that way.

Didn't Ruin power Marsh Allomancy the same way Vin was powering Elends? It was certainly described that way.

Quote

A powerful peace swelled in Elend. His Allomancy flared bright, though he knew the metals inside of him should have burned away. Only atium remained, and its strange power did not—could not—give him the other metals. But it didn't matter. For a moment, he was embraced by something greater. He looked up, toward the sun. And he saw—just briefly—an enormous figure in the air just above him. A shifting, brilliant personage of pure white. Her hands held to his shoulders with her head thrown back, white hair streaming, mist flaring behind her like wings that stretched across the sky.
Vin, he thought with a smile.
Elend looked back down as Marsh screamed and leaped forward, attacking with his axe in one hand, seeming to trail something vast and black like a cloak behind him. Marsh raised his other hand across his face, as if to shield his dead eyes from the image in the air above Elend.

And WoB confirms, Ruin can fuel Allomancy:

Spoiler

Czanos

Preservation can fuel Allomancy, (minus atium.) but can Ruin fuel Hemalurgy? (Or atium?) And could Sazed fuel all three Metallic Arts?

Brandon Sanderson

Both gods could, if they wanted, fuel all of the Metallic Arts. Preservation is stronger at fueling Allomancy, Ruin stronger at fueling Allomancy or Feruchemy when it has been given via a spike. Both are balanced when it comes to Feruchemy. But this rarely comes up in the books, as it required expending power in a way that the gods were hesitant to do.

Hero of Ages Q&A - Time Waster's Guide (Oct. 15, 2008)

 

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33 minutes ago, alder24 said:

Didn't Ruin power Marsh Allomancy the same way Vin was powering Elends? It was certainly described that way.

Yes, Ruin totally did, but I'd consider direct intervention by a Shard very much a special case- just because a Shard can do it doesn't mean it's not really hard.

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On 3/9/2023 at 1:33 PM, cometaryorbit said:

Yes, Ruin totally did, but I'd consider direct intervention by a Shard very much a special case- just because a Shard can do it doesn't mean it's not really hard.

Meta aside, is there any reason it would be hard for a Shard to fuel someone?

Czanos

Preservation can fuel Allomancy, (minus atium.) but can Ruin fuel Hemalurgy? (Or atium?) And could Sazed fuel all three Metallic Arts?

Brandon Sanderson

Both gods could, if they wanted, fuel all of the Metallic Arts. Preservation is stronger at fueling Allomancy, Ruin stronger at fueling Allomancy or Feruchemy when it has been given via a spike. Both are balanced when it comes to Feruchemy. But this rarely comes up in the books, as it required expending power in a way that the gods were hesitant to do.

Hero of Ages Q&A - Time Waster's Guide (Oct. 15, 2008)

 

Brandon says that it “required expending power in a way that the gods were hesitant to do.” I think it’s something like what happens with Atium. The power will eventually return to the Shard after being used, but they may not get it back for a bit, though Ruin probably would’ve gotten his Atium power back way sooner if Kelsier hadn’t destroyed the Pits. At least, my impression was that Shards could recycle their power near instantly, but it may take more time to recycle if someone else used it.
Edited by Mistchemist16
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16 hours ago, StanLemon said:

Except it's also described as being only a little larger than a hand, so if it's over sized it isn't by much. Also you missed the point, that spearhead is made up of at least 16 other pieces of metal, so each metalmind is at best only 1/16th the size of the Bands. A small bracer would be more metal than that. And that's if there wasn't multiple metalminds for Tin, Bendalloy, or Nicrosil making each metalmind even smaller. Heck, assuming 5 layers for Tin and 2 for Bendalloy would would bring each metalmind to 1/21 of the Bands' total size. Likely no larger than a standard bracelet at most. And that's assuming all Nicrosil functions can be done with a single Nicrosilmind 

Edit: I realize bracelet might be ambiguous, I am specifically meaning a solid metal bracelet, not a small chained bracelet 

Could you tell me where is it described as only a little larger than a hand? I was actually trying to find it, but I must have missed it.

Also, I have a theory that Bands are fueled directly by Mists stored within it, so it would circumvent a lot of the usual restrictions on medallions. That is however completely speculative, it is more to show where I am coming from.

13 hours ago, alder24 said:

Common misconception, plate armor doesn't considerably restrict your movement. Having 30 kg of metalminds would be really "handy" for a compounder - that would be basically a Shardplate. Add a sword and shield made out of metalminds and you have a Shardblade and a Half-Shard.

  Reveal hidden contents

Yata

Could a filled (fully feruchemical charge) metalmind block a Shardblade (or at least, resist a bit)?

Brandon Sanderson

Yes, it could. Excellent question.

/r/books AMA 2015 (Sept. 3, 2015)

 

Agree on the metalarmor being handy for Compounder, especially since they could be tapping a little of strength all the time to make it even easier.

The only thing I will dispute, is that Full Metalmind won't be a good Shardblade. At best it resists the Investiture cutting property, however it won't have any other properties of Shardblade.

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3 hours ago, therunner said:

Could you tell me where is it described as only a little larger than a hand? I was actually trying to find it, but I must have missed it.

BoM, ch 23, Wayne removing spearhead for the statue:

Quote

He wrapped the big spearhead, which was as large as his palm, with a handkerchief to keep it from freezing his fingers off, and started whistling as he jogged after the others.

 

3 hours ago, therunner said:

The only thing I will dispute, is that Full Metalmind won't be a good Shardblade. At best it resists the Investiture cutting property, however it won't have any other properties of Shardblade.

Yes, I don't think a metalmind Shardblade (Mindblade?) would cut like a Shardblade, but it would resist it, and that's a big help when fighting a Shardblade. Aluminum would likely be much better but still. It might do some Shardblade-like-damage, but I think you would need to do something more to make it cut truly like a Shardblade. After all, you can replicate any form of invested arts with another type of invested art.

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2 hours ago, StanLemon said:

This gave me a terrible idea for a Shardblade, Hemalurgic Aluminum Shardblade...

Could be very dangerous to Invested individuals, assuming that a decent alloy exists that can provide the properties of aluminum and make a sword that won't crumple with the first swing. Also, it may be that the aluminum blade needs to strike a specific Bindpoint in order to act Hemalurgically.

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19 hours ago, Mistchemist16 said:

Meta aside, is there any reason it would be hard for a Shard to fuel someone?

Czanos

Preservation can fuel Allomancy, (minus atium.) but can Ruin fuel Hemalurgy? (Or atium?) And could Sazed fuel all three Metallic Arts?

Brandon Sanderson

Both gods could, if they wanted, fuel all of the Metallic Arts. Preservation is stronger at fueling Allomancy, Ruin stronger at fueling Allomancy or Feruchemy when it has been given via a spike. Both are balanced when it comes to Feruchemy. But this rarely comes up in the books, as it required expending power in a way that the gods were hesitant to do.

Hero of Ages Q&A - Time Waster's Guide (Oct. 15, 2008)

 

Brandon says that it “required expending power in a way that the gods were hesitant to do.” I think it’s something like what happens with Atium. The power will eventually return to the Shard after being used, but they may not get it back for a bit, though Ruin probably would’ve gotten it back way sooner if Kelsier hadn’t destroyed the Pits. At least, my impression was that Shards could recycle their power near instantly, but it may take more time to recycle if someone else used it.

I don't think fueling something like Allomancy is particularly hard for a Shard, in the sense that they're at the limit of their capabilities to do it.

But I think they need Connection to make it work (Vin to Elend and Ruin to Marsh).

Preservation and Ruin or Harmony might be able to fuel any native Scadrian, because those people's ancestors were their creations and their Investiture is imbued in the people's bodies (and all matter on Scadrial) and composes their souls. But I don't think they could fuel a random offworlder's magic system.

It is also costly for them to do (and yeah, I agree the reason it costs them is probably for time-to-recycle reasons like atium).

At least, it's costly when the Shard is closely balanced with another like Ruin and Preservation.

(Warbreaker)

Spoiler

Endowment regularly, personally gives out Divine Breaths directly from her own power. And she may have intervened directly in Nightblood's creation as well. But then, she's the only Shard on that planet.

8 hours ago, therunner said:

Also, I have a theory that Bands are fueled directly by Mists stored within it, so it would circumvent a lot of the usual restrictions on medallions. That is however completely speculative, it is more to show where I am coming from.

Do you have another thread on the Bands Mists thing? I was about to post a really long response to that, but it's probably too much of a digression here.

1 hour ago, Trusk'our said:

Could be very dangerous to Invested individuals, assuming that a decent alloy exists that can provide the properties of aluminum and make a sword that won't crumple with the first swing. Also, it may be that the aluminum blade needs to strike a specific Bindpoint in order to act Hemalurgically.

I would think it'd have to be bindpoint specific. Otherwise anyone who knew about Hemalurgy could automatically wipe out powers with aluminum bullets. But if it's bindpoint specific, getting the needed precision with a gun is essentially impossible.

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3 hours ago, cometaryorbit said:
  Reveal hidden contents

Endowment regularly, personally gives out Divine Breaths directly from her own power. And she may have intervened directly in Nightblood's creation as well. But then, she's the only Shard on that planet.

Do you have another thread on the Bands Mists thing? I was about to post a really long response to that, but it's probably too much of a digression here.

Two, the most recent one is in TLM spoiler area is here

 And the old one is here

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
21 hours ago, IlstrawberrySeed said:

First, @Tamriel Wolfsbaine, for your explanation. It is a lot worse then the one I pieced together carefully last week, but its this or nothing.

Feurochemists convert some amount of attribute into some amount of investiture, at a greater than linear rate A(x). After converting it to investiture, they send it to the metalmind using B(x) investiture, also greater than linear. When they pull it out, they use B(x) again, and compress it with C(x), and finally convert it back to attribute with D(x). So at the end of the day, if you fill at rate x for the same amount of time you tap at a constant rate, then the attribute you get is D(y-C(y-B(y-B(y))), where y=A(X). A(D(x)) = x if you remove all referenced to a person's power, (if any) and one or more of A, B, and D have power in the formula.

Allomancers pull a small amount of investiture to burn metals. The amount of investiture they can pull is i = 10 +- p, where p is power. Hemalurgists, multi-mistings, and mistborn have sparate and non-interacting pools. This investiture pulls more investiture through the spiritual realm, which does 2 things. First, an amount E(i) based on the inverse or negative of their power is used to convert the metal into investiture, and the rest, F(i), is used to complete the task set by the metal. Chromium and Aluminum convert metals to kinetic investiture and key kinetic investiture to do nothing (AKA return to the SR), while Durilium and necrosil increase i directly.

When an allomancer burns an invested metal, E(i) increases (I believe only slightly for normal values). If the metal is interactively charged, then the charge is drawn out as the metal is being burnt, and rekeys the investiture. The amount of attribute you get from a metalmind is equivalent to D( f(i) + A(X) - C(A(X)-B(A(X)-B(A(X)))) - G(f(i))), where G(f(i)) is the amount of investiture pulled out to key it.

 

On 3/7/2023 at 0:48 PM, Trusk'our said:

Hmmm. Good thought.

Allomantic metals burn at different rates, presumably because the different powers require different amounts of Investiture to function, so different Feruchemical attributes would likely require different speeds of burning too.

We don't normally notice Feruchemical Investiture differences though, since you would store faster as well as tap faster, but if you Compound it may become more relevant.

You're quite welcome.:D

Feruchemical power diffrences apear in the attribute decay, you don't quite get 1to1. If someone filled 100lbs for 30 years, they could tap it for 99.7lbs for 30 years. Probably more.

On 3/9/2023 at 9:14 AM, StanLemon said:

Except it's also described as being only a little larger than a hand, so if it's over sized it isn't by much. Also you missed the point, that spearhead is made up of at least 16 other pieces of metal, so each metalmind is at best only 1/16th the size of the Bands. A small bracer would be more metal than that. And that's if there wasn't multiple metalminds for Tin, Bendalloy, or Nicrosil making each metalmind even smaller. Heck, assuming 5 layers for Tin and 2 for Bendalloy would would bring each metalmind to 1/21 of the Bands' total size. Likely no larger than a standard bracelet at most. And that's assuming all Nicrosil functions can be done with a single Nicrosilmind 

Edit: I realize bracelet might be ambiguous, I am specifically meaning a solid metal bracelet, not a small chained bracelet 

I did the calculation, if the spearhead has the same mass as a human hand, it would be 24ccs. However, when I was reminded of the "oversided" bit I started saying 24ccs couldn't be correct. Perhaps it is after all.

On 3/9/2023 at 11:03 AM, Tamriel Wolfsbaine said:

I like a lot of this.  My question is just this... is there a breakpoint where you actually lose attribute per time burning the metalmind making it net negative?   Or can you just stuff a metalmind so full of attribute that it burns at such a small rate as to keep itself net positive?  

 

If I have a gram of steel stuffed with millions of seconds worth of speed and I burnt that how slow would it have to burn to get to a reasonable power level while not losing attribute?  

The danger of 10x argument is that it can quickly get out of hand but it always stays net positive which is the whole point.  

Trying to limit the metalmind and saying you get x from it based on allomantic strength opens a lot of doors to which you could end up with a huge loss of attribute over the period of burning that metalmind.  

I don't mean to pester the idea I am just trying to make it work in my mind that compounding is always net positive feruchemy but there are limits to how much you can gain to where you are burning just a few molecules at a time and a really full metalmind could last you years and years to burn through gaining the compounding benefits?   

I get the want and desire to need to still tap for attributes but how much of an attribute do you think you can pull out at once?  10x speed?  20x speed?  Honestly to be able to move around at 200 mph on a slow burn is a big deal even if you did have to concede and tap more past that but I am curious what you think those numbers could be.  

I am not wanting to beat a dead horse.  But to go Mach1 for 2 seconds Marasi would have had to withdraw 60billion seconds of doubled speed from the bands of mourning (not accounting for any diminishing returns so it could have been holding two or three or who knows how many times that amount).  How big do you think that metalmind was, and how long would it have to last burning at what you deem a reasonable amount of speed from compounding to still end up being net positive? 

I think the ideas are in the right ballpark but healing is really hard to gauge power and numbers with.  Speed, based on what we know about feruchemy, gives us some good numbers to play around with and I would like to see those numbers work in a way other than "This theory explains Miles."   

How fast do you think Wax could go, and for how long do you think he could do that burning the steel from the bands. 

We talked about this in another thread since you've posted this, so I don't think I need to re-correct you. Also, I copied the explanation you asked for at the top.

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29 minutes ago, IlstrawberrySeed said:

I did the calculation, if the spearhead has the same mass as a human hand, it would be 24ccs. However, when I was reminded of the "oversided" bit I started saying 24ccs couldn't be correct. Perhaps it is after all.

So the spearhead has the density of the water not a metal? Bands having the size of a hand - yes, mass of the hand - big no no.

So the density of the human body is very close to the density of water, so 1 g/cm3, google search for mass of human hand is ~400 g. d=m/v; v=m/d; v=400g/1g/cm3; v=400 cm3. How did you get 16 times less?

That's volume (assuming Bands have the size of a hand), now for mass of the Bands - I could divide the volume by 16, and calculate the mass of each metal segment of the Bands separately, and then add up, but most of 16 metals have density around steel 8 g/cm3, aluminum has 2.7, while gold has 19, so it's still averages out around 8 g/cm3 (more or less with other metals). m=d*v = 8*400=3200 g = 3.2 kg. That's the mass of the Bands (mass of the typical spearhead is less than 1 kg).

Sometimes I get a brain freeze and get confused when I see "ccs" and wonder what unit it is. It takes me a moment to dissect it :lol:

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9 minutes ago, alder24 said:

So the spearhead has the density of the water not a metal? Bands having the size of a hand - yes, mass of the hand - big no no.

So the density of the human body is very close to the density of water, so 1 g/cm3, google search for mass of human hand is ~400 g. d=m/v; v=m/d; v=400g/1g/cm3; v=400 cm3. How did you get 16 times less?

That's volume (assuming Bands have the size of a hand), now for mass of the Bands - I could divide the volume by 16, and calculate the mass of each metal segment of the Bands separately, and then add up, but most of 16 metals have density around steel 8 g/cm3, aluminum has 2.7, while gold has 19, so it's still averages out around 8 g/cm3 (more or less with other metals). m=d*v = 8*400=3200 g = 3.2 kg. That's the mass of the Bands (mass of the typical spearhead is less than 1 kg).

Sometimes I get a brain freeze and get confused when I see "ccs" and wonder what unit it is. It takes me a moment to dissect it :lol:

I thought ccs were volume, my bad. I was looking up volume of a hand, guess I found density.

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5 minutes ago, IlstrawberrySeed said:

I thought ccs were volume, my bad. I was looking up volume of a hand, guess I found density.

They are volume units, ccs - cubic centimeters, but I'm so used to cm3 that I just don't know what it is for a second.

Edited by alder24
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21 minutes ago, alder24 said:

They are volume units, ccs - cubic centimeters, but I'm so used to cm3 that I just don't know what it is for a second.

My bad. Rereading with that understanding that's what you were talking about, that was the amount for each metal assuming the sum of each metalmind of a metal are equal.

Edited by IlstrawberrySeed
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1 minute ago, IlstrawberrySeed said:

My bad. Rereading with that understanding that's what you were talking about, that was the amount for each metal assuming the sum of each metalmind of a metal are equal.

Oh right, that's how you get 16 times less. That makes sense. You know, the 16 part should rung a bell in my head :lol:

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13 hours ago, alder24 said:

So the spearhead has the density of the water not a metal? Bands having the size of a hand - yes, mass of the hand - big no no.

So the density of the human body is very close to the density of water, so 1 g/cm3, google search for mass of human hand is ~400 g. d=m/v; v=m/d; v=400g/1g/cm3; v=400 cm3. How did you get 16 times less?

That's volume (assuming Bands have the size of a hand), now for mass of the Bands - I could divide the volume by 16, and calculate the mass of each metal segment of the Bands separately, and then add up, but most of 16 metals have density around steel 8 g/cm3, aluminum has 2.7, while gold has 19, so it's still averages out around 8 g/cm3 (more or less with other metals). m=d*v = 8*400=3200 g = 3.2 kg. That's the mass of the Bands (mass of the typical spearhead is less than 1 kg).

Sometimes I get a brain freeze and get confused when I see "ccs" and wonder what unit it is. It takes me a moment to dissect it :lol:

 

12 hours ago, IlstrawberrySeed said:

My bad. Rereading with that understanding that's what you were talking about, that was the amount for each metal assuming the sum of each metalmind of a metal are equal.


Wait a moment, so 24 ccs was meant for each individual metal? Man I misunderstood that. Reusing the wild-guess calculation from vs thread (copied below for clarity),
that would estimate BoM can hold ~17000 months worth of stored speed.
Which using formula for time tapping after loss T/n *5/6 * (3/5)^(n-1), leads to ~12 seconds of slightly beyond Mach 1 speed, which could be pushed a little bit further I think for something around ~400 m/s speed for 2-3 seconds.

I am surprised that the wild guess continues to be broadly in line with what we are seeing.

Quote

And then, burn speed. Most vials contain flakes of metals which will be fractions of a gram I would assume, and BB pellets are about ~0.3 gram. So you would burn that for minutes or hours, depending on the metal.

And then you need to repeat that many times, and each time you need 10x bigger piece of metal to store in, and 10x as much time to burn the metalmind.

After doing this four times, you would need to burn each of your metalminds for ~10000 hours to compound again, and at that point they weight around 16*300 grams in total, and you need 48 kilograms of metal to store in.

So, you quickly run into physical limitations. If filling BB sized metalmind can be done within ~month of time, then at most Fullborn can have something around ~10000 months of attribute available at any given time,...

 

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2 hours ago, therunner said:

Wait a moment, so 24 ccs was meant for each individual metal? Man I misunderstood that. Reusing the wild-guess calculation from vs thread (copied below for clarity),
that would estimate BoM can hold ~17000 months worth of stored speed.
Which using formula for time tapping after loss T/n *5/6 * (3/5)^(n-1), leads to ~12 seconds of slightly beyond Mach 1 speed, which could be pushed a little bit further I think for something around ~400 m/s speed for 2-3 seconds.

I am surprised that the wild guess continues to be broadly in line with what we are seeing.

Yeah, I'm surprised too, that really checks out very good.

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3 hours ago, therunner said:

 


Wait a moment, so 24 ccs was meant for each individual metal? Man I misunderstood that. Reusing the wild-guess calculation from vs thread (copied below for clarity),
that would estimate BoM can hold ~17000 months worth of stored speed.
Which using formula for time tapping after loss T/n *5/6 * (3/5)^(n-1), leads to ~12 seconds of slightly beyond Mach 1 speed, which could be pushed a little bit further I think for something around ~400 m/s speed for 2-3 seconds.

I am surprised that the wild guess continues to be broadly in line with what we are seeing.

 

Considering that Marasi was leaving a noticeable vacuum and air fills a vacuum at approximately 500 m/s, she was most likely going at least that fast. Honestly she almost probably going even faster as she probably wasn't moving her hand more than a few centimeters so it would have only taken a fraction of a second to fill that vacuum. 

If we assume that your equation is correct then the amount of speed that was stored in the steel was even more than 17000 months estimate

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