Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

[Ashbringer he/him]

It gives the supposed e!Troll control over the scan result.

[Channelknight Fadran]

We don't have any indication as to what determines whether a person dies or survives, right?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Vote Tally
Steeldancer (8): Araris Valerian, Archer, Channelknight Fadran, DrakeMarshall, Matrim's Dice, The Wandering Wizard, The last Fae in the Woods, |TJ|
Sart (2): Amanuensis, Ashbringer

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

I’m heavily considering a Sart/Drake/Mat/JNV world right now lol.

Okay I guess this isn't going to go away if I ignore it huh

So on the one hand, if you ignore that Stick shot Tani, I would be reasonably suspicious of me too.

On the other hand, I don't really see how you ignore that sticking point. I mean yes I'm not solidly cleared but it feels like a pretty convincing argument.

If you really want me to explain what I was going for with claiming that Stick shot TKN then I can do so but don't expect it to make sense

Of the other people you listed:

• I will go to bat for Mat
• I wouldn't mind an exe on Sart
• I don't really have any read of JNV, but would probably oppose their exe unless PoE or some other evidence pointed that way more strongly that way than it currently does

Take that how you will.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Do we all agree that Sart attempted to either pollute the tie or break it? Or does anyone have v!Sart credences? Cause this seems like an obvious elim-motivated CW to me.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

• Tani submits kill
• Steel is Tie Guy or lied about grabbing Danex’s role
• e!roleblocker roleblocks Fadran
• e!Troll trolls RandBy so the result is Village

The result on Steel was elim, so I'm not sure what you're getting at here.

Edit: Except you already saw that, nevermind

Edit 2: The problem is both Bip and I were set to scan Randby to see if he was Trolled. So any v!Steel theory has to account for the roleblock on Fadran, the Troll on Randby, and both Bip and myself failing our actions, via roleblock, Troll, or elimness

Edited February 8, 2023 by Araris Valerian

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Edit 2: The problem is both Bip and I were set to scan Randby to see if he was Trolled. So any v!Steel theory has to account for the roleblock on Fadran, the Troll on Randby, and both Bip and myself failing our actions, via roleblock, Troll, or elimness

I don't think Bip was ever set on RandBy. Wiz asked Bip to Troll watch him.

But anyway, then why roleblock Fadran at all? Waste of resource

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

I don't think Bip was ever set on RandBy. Wiz asked Bip to Troll watch him.

But anyway, then why roleblock Fadran at all? Waste of resource

I mean, clearly not, since there isn't a village consensus about the result of the scan.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Araris Valerian

[Channelknight Fadran]

Kinda seems like there is, 'cause everyone's voting Steeldancer and not me.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Channelknight Fadran

[Ashbringer he/him]

2 minutes ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

Kinda seems like there is, 'cause everyone's voting Shining and not me.

… huh?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Channelknight Fadran said:

Kinda seems like there is, 'cause everyone's voting Shining and not me.

Is this in response to me? Because Shining is dead, there are plenty of votes on both Sart and Steel, implying no clear consensus about whether the elim result was flipped by a Troll.

[Channelknight Fadran]

Steel

 

I meant Steel

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

I’m heavily considering a Sart/Drake/Mat/JNV world right now lol.

Lollll that'd be so fun I wish

I'd support a JNV scan. That'd probably be more helpful than another me one, since v!JNV confirms v!me where the inverse isn't always true. I'd also be okay with a Drake exe though maybe later game? I sympathize with your paranoia at least  But I do like how his reads aren't just carbon copies of everyone else's. 

1 hour ago, Archer said:

You should save that for exlo. It makes a hammer harder to do because it eliminates the allure of side trains and prevents an exe on the GMs. 

You get a gold star for being the first person so far to make a convincing argument for when I should use my ability

38 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I see. Fadran says his Troll was roleblocked, so e!Steel is revealed elim.

So we think the elims would spend a roleblock without trolling the result too?

That's...?

Wait, couldn't that imply v!Steel? Because it obviously doesn't make sense that Fadran got RBd by the elims but they let Randby scan e!Steel as elim, so instead we'd have e!Fadran trolling Randby and claiming RBd? But no that goes back to the same problem of Araris/Bip needed to be reigned in. Araris apparently forgot and we haven't heard from Bip; if one of them is evil with Fadran this works easier.

19 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Do we all agree that Sart attempted to either pollute the tie or break it? Or does anyone have v!Sart credences? Cause this seems like an obvious elim-motivated CW to me.

I don't know what to think of Sart. I agree with Drake in that it feels weird that he's the only one who hasn't claimed (and still hasn't???) and I do remember his early game seeming very... individual, for lack of a better word. You could make the same argument for Shining trying to break the tie with manip, yeah?

But really, Sart's PoE and I have no problem with his exe if we'd rather do that over Steel. 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

And how many votes does he have now? 

But yeah, he's not exactly slipping under the radar, but he's doing what Shining ended up doing where there was always someone more urgent to get investigated. That and Sart has directly not engaged at points.

Why does Shining matter in regards to this? Also, as someone that that regularly happens to, that's not really a super suspicious thing in my mind.

Edited February 8, 2023 by The Known Novel

[Ashbringer he/him]

2 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Why does Shining matter in regards to this? Also, as someone that that regularly happens to, that's not really a super suspicious thing in my mind.

I get nervous when one person gets suspected a lot but not actually voted for or pressured a lot.

… that explains a lot, actually …

[Channelknight Fadran]

19 minutes ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

Kinda seems like there is, 'cause everyone's voting Steeldancer and not me.

(fixed it)

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Do we all agree that Sart attempted to either pollute the tie or break it?

No I don't agree that this is necessarily the case.

Sart literally hasn't posted since the vote shenanigans, so we really don't know what they were thinking.

There was enough confusion at the time that I'm not going to immediately assume it was eliminator action.

Could it have been? Yes. I'll agree that an elim potentially has more ulterior motives for doing this than a villager. But Sart absolutely wasn't the only person making last-minute changes to the vote. And the fact of the matter is, a lot of those last-minute changes canceled out and the tie still ended up happening. I don't think you can say that everyone making last-minute changes is an eliminator, and so I don't think you can say that there are no reasons a villager would vote during the end of the cycle.

Also, I will remind you that if Steel is evil, then this tie is completely irrelevant. This argument only holds water if Steel is village, which means it is not going to be very convincing to me or presumably others who think Steel is an elim.

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Or does anyone have v!Sart credences?

Yes I do actually.

I have mentioned that the fact Sart hasn't claimed might actually be a slight point for village!Sart.

In a game like this, with no flips and a bunch of roleclaiming, it seems decently likely that the elims would have developed a plan in their doc for what each of them would claim. If they didn't coordinate this it could be bad for them, right? I would definitely try to hammer out a concerted plan for what everyone claims if I was in their shoes.

This is supported by the fact that it is only Sart who hasn't claimed. This makes Sart stick out, which does not seem like something the elims would want, and it gives us evidence that most of the elims must have already claimed. They aren't just being lazy and not thinking of things to claim, most likely. I would look slightly more suspiciously at unsubstantiated roleclaims, or roleclaims where the accounting for that player's actions feel sketchy.

Is this a strong village credence? Not really. Like I said, a Sart lynch sounds okay to me. But I do in fact have some reason to believe Sart is a villager.

33 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Cause this seems like an obvious elim-motivated CW to me.

Does it though?

If you think the redscan result on Steel is fake, then the elims would have to have planned it before today.

In which case, the fact that a Sart wagon developed earlier today has very little bearing. In the world where Steel is village, they would have voted up Steel today no matter what.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

28 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I get nervous when one person gets suspected a lot but not actually voted for or pressured a lot.

… that explains a lot, actually …

What does this explain? My continual murder?

[Ashbringer he/him]

1 minute ago, The Known Novel said:

What does this explain? My continual murder?

... remember that time with the playing cards? 

But yeah, I tend to tunnel vision on you sometimes, and that would be a good explanation as to why.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Reads list:

Spoiler

Tani        (rip)
Silho      (rip)
Steel
Ash
Biplet
Xino       (rip)
Sart
Fadran
Archer
JNV
Fae
TJ
Araris
Orlok
Dannex  (rip)
Walin      (rip)
Wizard
Matrim
Randby  (rip)
TKN        (rip)
Devo       (rip)
Aman
Book      (rip)
Striker    (rip)
Drake

Evidence:

Spoiler

 

[JNV]

Only thing I got from spidering last night is Wizard targeted Drake N3 which isnt the most helpful information also if people want to scan me go ahead 

So by the sounds of things Steeldancer got scanned evil and Fadran didnt get the troll off so Steeldancers actually evil is that right so I mean I guess Steeldancer I have a lot going on so I got to go bye see you in a while

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, JNV said:

Only thing I got from spidering last night is Wizard targeted Drake N3 which isnt the most helpful information also if people want to scan me go ahead 

So by the sounds of things Steeldancer got scanned evil and Fadran didnt get the troll off so Steeldancers actually evil is that right so I mean I guess Steeldancer I have a lot going on so I got to go bye see you in a while

Technically, it means there’s no way to confirm whether the scan is accurate unless Bip trollscanned Randby, since Araris didn’t. But it was a redscan yeah.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

7 minutes ago, JNV said:

Only thing I got from spidering last night is Wizard targeted Drake N3 which isnt the most helpful information also if people want to scan me go ahead

Wizard did indeed target me N3, you are correct.

That does, at least, confirm that you are a genuine spider, and that you weren't doing anything else with your action last night  Which is somewhat valuable in of itself.

Well, either that or you're E/E with Wizard. But by extension that would require you to be E/E/E with Wizard and Fae, so I think that hypothesis is unlikely.

[Biplet she/her]

5 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. @Biplet, who did you scan N4?

Wiz, who wasn't trolled

Edit: meant to add, sorry for my extended absence, I had a concert last night!! (not opera). It went very well

Edited February 8, 2023 by Biplet

[Amanuensis he/him]

So let me get this straight. Elims roleblocked Fadran to cast doubt on the accuracy of an e!Steel scan without Trolling RandBy and their plan today was to… bus Steel anyway?

Edited February 8, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Biplet she/her]

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

So let me get this straight. Elims roleblocked Fadran to cast doubt on the accuracy of an e!Steel scan without Trolling RandBy and their plan today was to… bus Steel anyway?

Elim troll? Thread chaos? Sorry I haven't paid much attention today due to Life(tm)

@Channelknight Fadran based pfp, i see u