Long Game 91: A Fresh Start in Shinovar

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Mind walking me through them again, of your courtesy?

So, I was going to, but I'm going to have to tomorrow instead.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

If it's a NA holiday thing, someone please explain this to my confused Asian soul.

Lynch me if you all want. I'm done. I'm going to catch up on the Brazil match.

It's probably because most people are just eating and generally hanging out with their families. There's probably a decent amount of driving as well to visit people, so yes, it's Thanksgiving. It's entire purpose is pretty much to make and eat food with family and (sometimes) friends.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

Your reasoning there is flawed. (Also, what does AtE mean?) V people can still try to clear suspicion from themselves, even if they're doing so ineffectually. 

That's a clear misinterpretation of what he's saying. And villagers don't try to clear suspicion in that manner, especially not on purpose.

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

2 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

That's a clear misinterpretation of what he's saying. And villagers don't try to clear suspicion in that manner, especially not on purpose.

How is it a misinterpretation? It feels pretty clear what he’s saying.

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

How is it a misinterpretation? It feels pretty clear what he’s saying.

I’m saying that e!you self voted to make yourself appear villagery. Or could have, at least. It didn’t sit right with me.

Edited November 25, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’m saying that e!you self voted to make yourself appear villagery. Or could have, at least. It didn’t sit right with me.

That’s what I was saying you were saying.

Anyway, @Chantara and @InfiniteInsanity, I see you lurking. Anything to say?

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Omniscient said:

That’s what I was saying you were saying.

Then why did you imply that I called trying to clear suspicion as elimmy? That’s not what I said at all.

[Chantara she/her]

4 minutes ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

Anyway, @Chantara and @InfiniteInsanity, I see you lurking. Anything to say?

Trying to catch up. BRB reading. 

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

15 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Then why did you imply that I called trying to clear suspicion as elimmy? That’s not what I said at all.

Ah, I see. In that case, yes, I did misinterpret. 

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

I still don't get this.

I can have a sincerely-held belief that the moon is made of blue cheese. It could be very sincere, but it could also be very wrong.

I would find your tie-chasing for informational grounds suspect, and I sort of do, but I also think it is a sincerely-held belief, just very wrong. I would expect E!Szeth to use that as an excuse to vote (though that does raise the question: why, when there are really other reasons to do it? Self-conscious anchoring on a bad train? No idea. But doesn't ring too right to me.) 

Let's take your reasoning to the natural conclusion. Ok, suppose you got your tie. How does it help us? Do we then commit to flipping all the CWs? What happens if all the CWs are Village? If we automatically commit to flipping all the CWs in a braindead way, we guarantee three to four MLs in total. If you are Village, you will probably also be MLed, leaving the Elims a nice chunk of time in which to exist without coming under pressure or having to do significant work to appear Village. 

Sure, we don't know that all the CWs are Village. But it's precisely because we don't know if all the CWs are Village that V!you has to think and plan for that contingency. How does it generate more info? Elk, you, Cash, Alv all claim to be voting for a tie, that's it. So do we commit to flipping all of you? An Elim can say that just as well as a Villager. How does it generate information for us? How does the commitment to a tie or the tie itself generate 'lots of information' for us, as you contend? It just creates a drektonne of noise that Villagers have to sort through, and potentially waste our time on in the hopes of getting actionable information out of it. Made even worse because Chana preferred to create PMs rather than flip a CW, which...I get it, and I believe in V!Chana right now, but it is a tough pill to swallow when we have to re-litigate a fairly uninformative D1 due to too many people chasing ties and too many CWs.

I also point out that if you don't believe all the CWs are Village, you have to answer:

-Why you then didn't vote on the CW you believe wasn't Village
-How you can justify believing not all the CWs are Village when literally you and every single late voter claimed not to be saving someone but to be 'preserving the tie'
-How you expect a Villager to then tell the difference without having to go through a chain of MLs.

Fundamentally, too, creating ties isn't itself informative if no one does the analytical work of going through the past cycle. It's an easy, low-effort way to hide under the radar by just saying "Oh look I created a tie, more information is great, I helped the Village!" Doing so isn't necessarily pro-Village and it's especially cheap if the player themselves isn't invested in trying to make sense of it.

There are ways to generate information. What we got isn't it. I can agree that I think your belief that what you were doing was good for the Village was sincerely-held. But I strongly disagree that it helped the Village, so I think it is 'very wrong.'

1 hour ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

@Kasimir, I guess it differs. But by this time most places, people should be free. Idk. I don't really celebrate the turkey day.

Thanks for explaining.

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It is Thanksgiving night in America, so yes, no, and not really, but I am on vacation playing primarily from mobile and from my head with almost no backreading. Sorry if that’s hard to work with :P. 

Whatever everyone else has— those reasons xD Can’t recall them specifically, something about votes I think and I disagree that he feels pure. The reasons that those are less is that they’re not my own and I’m wary of that.

Thanks for explaining to me.

I work best off people, so yes, it is screamingly frustrating to not have anyone willing to bounce off while trying to make sense of the past cycle but life's like that. Why SE when you can watch Brazil slice up Serbia with those two sweet Richarlison goals at the World Cup? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ So yeah I geddit.

So you...suspect him for reasons you don't actually recall, but that you are also wary of? >>

What.

At least where purity is concerned, I'd defer to you. You IDed E!Gorilla pretty early, while Szeth talked me into Village reading him and trying to save him on D2 of AG8, which is why I'm still willing to pressure Szeth despite feeling that his beliefs were sincere, just wrong.

35 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

It's probably because most people are just eating and generally hanging out with their families. There's probably a decent amount of driving as well to visit people, so yes, it's Thanksgiving. It's entire purpose is pretty much to make and eat food with family and (sometimes) friends.

Thank you for explaining it.

I'm probably still sold on the set I mentioned, which maybe isn't a good thing.

As a brief summary of where I'm at:

• Dislike Bookwyrm's vote on Mat - felt crafted to deflect accusations that he was bandwagoning and opportunistic. Do sort of feel alright with Bookwyrm's retraction off Mat, and am not sure that's what E!Bookwyrm does, but at the same time...eh. Don't disagree with Stick it's odd that Bookwyrm didn't so much as self-pres. Not comfortable with the way the Bookwyrm train simply dissolved on its own. Elk and Xino jumping on and off in close succession to the same side-train feels weird. Archer is connected to both ways the train dissolved, by inducing Araris into a solo-vote on Xino, and as the train-starter for Wiz, which Xino and Elk subsequently join. Doesn't feel like a competition issue but a disinterest issue. Fact that both Araris and Stick feel strongly in opposite ways about Bookwyrm feels weird to me when he's functionally still a null, maybe a null- for me. I don't understand where this clarity comes from.
   
• Dislike Xino's vote hopping. Can't see much of a reason for it, and seems to indicate more disengagement with the game than Die Mannschaft in that match against Japan.
   
• Do not disagree with Stick's Elk issues and difficulty committing to Bookwyrm. Ultimately just feel that Elk has a tendency to train park and the tie seeking doesn't seem to make sense. Also not fond of that double train still. That being said, I have a hard time seeing E!Elk showboating with the ties towards the end, or that Bookwyrm vote. Does indicate a certain indifference to all three in the ties, I suppose. Which makes it weirder if you theorise Elk's reluctance to just commit to Bookwyrm is E/E. Sure, Bookwyrm is LHF but given that at least three people voted Bookwyrm and more expressed suspicion of Bookwyrm, what's the issue?
   
• Do feel Szeth was sincerely very wrong on tie-chasing; also feel Szeth's vote did in fact end up on Wiz contra-Bookwyrm but I am not sure that a Szeth/Bookwyrm team makes sense here, so it'd be E!Szeth / V!Bookwyrm. The world in which I can most see that team work would need one of <Stick, Alv, Elk> to be Evil too, and Stick is the only reasonable option as a three-way Bookwyrm/Wiz/Szeth tie is a losing proposition for the Elims.
   
• Dislike Archer's starting Wiz vote, solicitation, and connection to the dissolution of the Bookwyrm train. This feels like a thread to pull if Bookwyrm flips E.
   
• Do feel Turtle's performativeness sticks out to me, but I also want to take a look at the vote states again, and Turtle's N1 thoughts.
   
• Especially if all three trains are clean, Chantara, Silho, Cash and Insanity all radiate Elim dgaf energy and are worth looking at. Less sure about what to make of Elk in that world, due to Elk's noted Bookwyrm reluctance. Think showboating is not completely out of Elk's MO. Stick does come off looking good if so I think. But not as sure of that judgement - fully expecting to get blindsided by metascrewing at some point.
   
• No strong Araris read at the moment. In retrospect, I am not so sure being willing to vote Bookwyrm is a good look for Araris - it's Araris being Araris, given his D1 views. Waiting and seeing.
   
• Still willing to Village read Mat, not very comfortable with no sense of where Mat is this cycle, nor with that exchange with Araris.
   
• Jury is out on TUN, JNV. 
   
• Slightly tempted to V!read Alv but I have no real decent basis for this, so I'm going to ignore it and keep him in the grey zone for now.

[JNV]

Sad to lose control of Pailiah so early on Progressions more effective late game and Illuminations pretty good but since Illweis probably not that PM unsafe they probably werent killed for the blade itself just for who they are second that shaman bit you keep an eye out we need you well actually theres the chance the evils let the blade slide to implicate whoever gets the bump up cause the decision comes right before you get the list so who knows but Pailiahs blade is great for both sides so yeah just keep it in mind and let it implicate things I guess Im tired ignore me if Im not making sense or if Im just saying obvious things

Its midnight Im tired Ill have more and better thoughts tomorrow hopefully but for now Bookwyrm for the smae reasons as last time that weird Matrim vote D1 and walkabout with that and I get that how they were a frontrunner is a point against but Im always going to be circling back to them until they die so it might as well be now

And now I sleep night night heres sleepy quokka thats me

Spoiler

 

[Kasimir he/him]

14 hours ago, Ookla the Perpetual said:

I'm going to use my easy strategy and assume that the Wizard train had at least one, if not multiple, elims riding it. And the same for the next highest train, which was me.

We know that Wiz was village, now, and so I think that it's reasonable to assume that some of the other people who voted for me are also village. The Bookwyrm train probably only has one elim.

But simply focusing on the Wizard train...

I was not paying much attention, so I was really confused once so many people started voting Wizard. He didn't seem suspicious to me, and we know know that he was a villager...

I have my eye on Szeth and Elkanah right now, but I'm going to go re-read that part of D1 a little closer before I come to a solid conclusion.

Why?

What are your thoughts on everyone who voted for you?

14 hours ago, Ookla the Perpetual said:

I just re-read D1 and found that it was an insanely confusing vote shuffle based mostly on the fact that ties are fun.

Um....

Elkanah, with my ever present "subject to change" asterisk.

Why?

And why do you feel the need to expressly tell us it is subject to change when these things should be subject to change anyway? (I don't take the last as a point you're Evil, but uh...)

Edited to add:

On re-reading:

No, I think here's the thing:

On 11/23/2022 at 9:43 PM, Archer said:

I think I said I'd happily vote Xino, then Araris asked me to follow him. He had Xino pressure covered and I was waiting on Wiz so I didn't bother, then I changed my mind because I felt it fit Xino's playstyle, even though it's a generally strange move. 

Here's the sequence of events:

1. 

On 11/22/2022 at 3:24 AM, Araris Valerian said:

You are casting a self-preservation vote even though there are *checks watch* nearly 36 hours left in the cycle?

Araris flags Xino's tie vote as odd. Nevermind that Araris clearly wasn't paying attention. Separate issue. Though I honestly want to know how this got read as self-pres. I assume this is where the E!Araris comment from Stick comes in.

2.

On 11/22/2022 at 4:44 AM, Archer said:

On 11/22/2022 at 3:29 AM, Araris Valerian said:

All young folks look alike, okay?

I was originally thinking a self-pres vote this early in the day is kinda villagery, since an elim would probably want to de-escalate things if possible. Now I'm not sure what to think, though I would say the fact that there are still nearly 36 hours left in the cycle means that maybe everyone shouldn't be jumping onto wagons yet? I guess since we have more than 2 it's not the worst thing.

I like this premise. I'll happily vote Xino for playing to the VC not their suspicions 

I think the only reasonable way to read this is an offer from Archer to vote Xino.

3.

On 11/22/2022 at 4:59 AM, Araris Valerian said:

On 11/22/2022 at 4:50 AM, Alvron said:

Jelly Araris?  

On 11/22/2022 at 4:44 AM, Archer said:

I like this premise. I'll happily vote Xino for playing to the VC not their suspicions

Sure thing boss. Bookwyrm, Xino

My feelings are a bit mixed on Xino, but that doesn't mean I'm not happy to vote him out today.

Araris takes the offer and moves, pinging Archer back my responding to him. Presumably reads this as an offer to start a CW and is agreeable. I sort of feel that in an E!Bookwyrm world, one of <Araris, Archer> is likely E. My first read of this was Archer soliciting Araris off a train, and I still lean towards it, but believe it can also be read as E!Araris jumping at the chance to go off-train. I am not sure how much I buy that because I feel E!Araris had other trains he could plausibly switch to, but hey, opportunism right? And a ready-made two-vote CW there, which would tie Bookwyrm and Xino if Archer did indeed join.

P.S. Very entertained by that 'jelly Araris?' Ancient Evil talking to Old Evil :eyes:

4.

Archer doesn't join and Araris asks about that. Archer says this N1:

On 11/23/2022 at 9:43 PM, Archer said:

I think I said I'd happily vote Xino, then Araris asked me to follow him. He had Xino pressure covered and I was waiting on Wiz so I didn't bother, then I changed my mind because I felt it fit Xino's playstyle, even though it's a generally strange move. 

So yeah, I guess I will reconsider E!Archer and E!Araris, but since this is fundamentally E!Bookwyrm dependent, in a world where I'm looking at this chain would more or less require me to flip Bookwyrm first.

Which...is a can of worms, sigh.

Edited November 25, 2022 by Kasimir

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

...

@Ashbringer

[Ashbringer he/him]

12 minutes ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

...

@Ashbringer

… I too have been busy so am I missing something?

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

… I too have been busy so am I missing something?

Ohh.

Your post is wrong fyi: it says "turn ends on november 24"

but it's only been one day

Sorry, my bad

[Ashbringer he/him]

Oh. Yes turn ends in 24ish hours and not 20 minutes ago 

[Kasimir he/him]

One of the Honorblades had gone missing, the bearer slain.

Kvaseth-son-Wysan rested his head against the cold clay of the wall and thought furiously. The Tukari were clearly in Earthern Truth, hunting. Last night, he had dispatched a message-hawk to Esaan, informing her of the Council's decision. One that no doubt bore the marks of Vartan on it. Only Vartan could have urged a plan of such blinding arrogance.

Shut down Earthern Truth. Lure the Tukari out, as the Tukari stalked the Honorblades.

You did not stake it all on the treasures of the Heralds. Nin-son-God had charged the Shin with guarding them. It was dereliction of duty to bait the Tukari with them, no matter how tempting. And how many would be killed, before the end?

Lives that mattered. Lives that the High Council could save, if Vartan had bothered to listen.

But no one did.

But Vartan had sneered, "Know your place, warrior."

"I represent Esaan in this matter," Kvaseth had said.

But it didn't matter, he knew. He had taken up the sword; he had gone from caring for the land, from tending to the grapes in his care and making fine wine to killing, and the moment you first took up the sword, you were lost in the eyes of his people.

One who subtracts.

He tugged the hood of his brown cloak deeper over his face.

No one seemed interested in stopping the killings. He bit back the anger, the reflexive despair. It did not matter. He waited for the message-hawk to return from Esaan, grabbed the hilt of his sword and rotated it slightly, ready for the draw. 

He remembered the first time he had killed, before they had made him take the stone. Before they had sent him to the monastery to learn the art of the blade properly.

Perhaps it didn't matter, even if Esaan agreed with them. He did not think she would.

Many more would die, before the Tukari were stopped. People who didn't deserve to die. Helpless people. Good people.

Kvaseth wasn't going to let that happen.

[Mat he/him]

I could get behind e!Araris and e!TUN, I think. Araris for being good with chilling on the Bookwyrm vote (as Kas said, very dependent on Book’s alignment) and TUN because I feel like he’s trying to pocket me lol

[Araris Valerian he/him]

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Though I honestly want to know how this got read as self-pres.

It was me mixing up names. I thought I made a comment to that effect shortly afterwards.

 I honestly found Bookwyrm’s D1 suspicious, I think his flip provides some D1 clarity, and I think the tie shenanigans make his EOD lack of activity less relevant.

I wasn’t a huge fan of Stick’s first post this cycle, and TUN clearly would fit on a team that killed Illwei. So I’d flex to either of those, but want to sit on Bookwyrm if it looks like I can push that through.

I’m confused by what Archer did with the Xino vote last cycle, but I think it makes more sense for him to be village? Why would e!Archer bait me into a vote and then not follow? If Archer and Bookwyrm are e/e, he would probably have followed unless Xino was also elim, in which case it wouldn’t make sense for him to indicate willingness to move there originally.

[Turtle they/them]

insanity, tani, silho, szeth, tun, cash, elk/alv, bookwyrm, chantara 

probably has a good portion of the elims in it, maybe missing like one person

which leaves us:

archer, stick, kas, xino,  jnv, araris, wiz, mat, as people i vaguely trust and don’t want to yeet today

can someone remind me what size elim team we’re looking at? my brain is flipping from 4 to 5 to 6 and i don’t know what it usually is for 20 people ._.

also can the stone shaman figure out who has a blade d3 that they didn’t have d2? that should give us a pool of people to look at for being illwei’s killers, so if you figure that out just include those people in your poe or maybe recall whoever you think ha palaiah’s honorblade’s blades and pm someone you trust the list. i think that works?

edit: my poe is more than my v reads :/

kas, lack of activity should hopefully clear up today except if people live in ohio or michigan where there’s a football game going on that’s like between two colleges who are rivals and so people are paying attention to that i guess.

i’m in ohio and people are crossing out the letter m everywhere bc they don’t like michigan what why is ohio like this

edit 2:tun likes to leave village leaders alive if they’re going down the wrong path, right? so e!tun=sheep illwei some and maybe re-eval what kas is saying

watch all the elims be in my ‘people i trust pile’

Edited November 25, 2022 by ookla the POKE VOTE

[Kasimir he/him]

23 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

It was me mixing up names. I thought I made a comment to that effect shortly afterwards.

You did, I just found it a bit weird anyway despite that, since as you point out, 36 hours to EoD is kind of early for self-pres, so I wasn't sure how you would've read the scenario as a self-pres one anyway.

24 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’m confused by what Archer did with the Xino vote last cycle, but I think it makes more sense for him to be village? Why would e!Archer bait me into a vote and then not follow? If Archer and Bookwyrm are e/e, he would probably have followed unless Xino was also elim, in which case it wouldn’t make sense for him to indicate willingness to move there originally.

Did he need to follow by that point, though? You yourself pointed out the pre-commitment to a tie more or less entailed Archer could very well afford to keep his vote in reserve instead of immediately following you. In an E/E Archer/Bookwyrm world, you don't need to stack a side-train: you just need to peel off enough voters, seeing as that the Wiz, Mat, and TUN trains were already dominant then.

To recap, this is the state of the votes when you swap off:

On 11/24/2022 at 7:07 AM, Kasimir said:

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
TUN (2): Stick, Szeth
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz
Chantara (1): Kas
Xino (1): Araris

I'm also a bit lost as to why Archer figured you were putting enough pressure on Xino so it was fine for him to stay on Wiz. A single vote really isn't pressure at all in this sort of landscape, evidenced by the utter lack of fricks that Xino had to give.

The other reason I'm reluctant to let go of this theory yet is - check out the state of the votes when Archer tells you he'd really rather not swap to Xino after all.

On 11/24/2022 at 7:07 AM, Kasimir said:

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
TUN (1): Szeth
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (2): Illwei, Kas
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick

Bookwyrm in the lead tie via Mat. (Technically, Chantara hasn't unvoted TUN yet, but.) Swapping to Xino doesn't defang it. I suppose there's also the thought about Elims attempting to shape the final landscape of the Day if they know that there are going to be ties, but that being said, refusing the Xino swap looks fairly consistent in an E/E world.

5 minutes ago, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

edit 2:tun likes to leave village leaders alive if they’re going down the wrong path, right? so e!tun=sheep illwei some and maybe re-eval what kas is saying

E!JNV. But where E!JNV is concerned, my being alive is...probably a bit weirder.

5 minutes ago, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

also can the stone shaman figure out who has a blade d3 that they didn’t have d2? that should give us a pool of people to look at for being illwei’s killers, so if you figure that out just include those people in your poe or maybe recall whoever you think ha palaiah’s honorblade’s blades and pm someone you trust the list. i think that works?

Yes, but don't forget that the Blade will be auto-passed if the killer chooses not to claim it, so the Shaman functionally has to decide if that person is Evil or just lucky. I suppose we could argue they have good reason to deny us Pailah's Blade but really that's a IKYK. (Shaman knows people with Blades and numbers, so can check for discrepancies assuming no one would trust enough to pass a Blade this early.)

Shaman cannot use the Honorblades, therefore cannot make PMs.

7 minutes ago, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

can someone remind me what size elim team we’re looking at? my brain is flipping from 4 to 5 to 6 and i don’t know what it usually is for 20 people ._.

Quite likely five.

7 minutes ago, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

kas, lack of activity should hopefully clear up today except if people live in ohio or michigan where there’s a football game going on that’s like between two colleges who are rivals and so people are paying attention to that i guess.

There's the World Cup. TJ and I are expecting an absolute banger tonight between England and the US, though honestly my heart was already broken by that 2-0 Japan-Germany game. Die Mannschaft has never really recovered since 2018  My expectations were about floor height but I guess it is true you can always be more disappointed than before. And earlier today, Wales gave us the first red card v. Iran when their goalkeeper got sent off, RIP...

[Araris Valerian he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Did he need to follow by that point, though? You yourself pointed out the pre-commitment to a tie more or less entailed Archer could very well afford to keep his vote in reserve instead of immediately following you. In an E/E Archer/Bookwyrm world, you don't need to stack a side-train: you just need to peel off enough voters, seeing as that the Wiz, Mat, and TUN trains were already dominant then.

I guess my take is coming from hindsight; since I switched back to Bookwyrm, this theoretical ploy from Archer failed. I never indicated my suspicion of Bookwyrm had lessened, so who else would I switch to in the case he didnt back me up?

I do agree about the pressure thing though; with they way the votes were at that point, 1 vote wasn't going to threaten Xino.

Refusing the Xino swap makes sense in an e/e world where Archer is only thinking in the short term, but as evidenced by this discussion, it would pretty clearly be a risky play to make on D1 when Bookwyrm was likely going to fall under suspicion again today.

[Kasimir he/him]

29 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I guess my take is coming from hindsight; since I switched back to Bookwyrm, this theoretical ploy from Archer failed. I never indicated my suspicion of Bookwyrm had lessened, so who else would I switch to in the case he didnt back me up?

The question is, do you switch back though? Because it looked to me as though your switch back wasn't so much motivated by his failure to back you up, as by the fact that you had suspicion of Bookwyrm and that there was a direct tie at the point of your vote. I think it's also possible he could've anchored your vote in place, but anchoring the Wiz train was more important at that juncture.

That being said, this is a place where I do feel that Bookwyrm with teammates should've been told to show up and to try to defang the suspicion. Because it's exactly what you said: saving Bookwyrm does matter, but that doesn't do much good if Bookwyrm can't try to unwind some of that suspicion, the way Aman talked Szeth through it in AG8. Sure worked on me, anyway. And the Elim doc in QF63 at least seems to indicate Bookwyrm is cooperative on a team.

29 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Refusing the Xino swap makes sense in an e/e world where Archer is only thinking in the short term, but as evidenced by this discussion, it would pretty clearly be a risky play to make on D1 when Bookwyrm was likely going to fall under suspicion again today.

Is it though? I mean, I find this a very odd claim to make when: A. Chana didn't strike down Bookwyrm N1, and B. D2, we are actively considering whether Bookwyrm is such a LHF train that something is wrong with it. That seems like the definition of success to me, given the usual results when an Elim falls under suspicion D1. You have more extensive Evil experience than me, so you can probably tell me what options I'm missing: but really when E!Bookwyrm comes under heavy suspicion D1, what are your options?

(A) Instigate CWs
(B) Splinter train
(C) Probably a mix of both.
(D) Just ride the tie

I'd argue if you can do (B), (B) is better, because you can at least try to argue there was no apparent resistance, therefore there was unlikely to be Elim interest. It looks much worse if aggressive CWs spring up because then people get itchy to flip the original train. Edited to add: That is, people are more likely to resist bringing the train back if you can argue it dissolved organically the first time around.

Either way, I'd argue this only matters if Bookwyrm flips E, and I'm still not necessarily convinced that's the route I want to take just yet. But I certainly wouldn't be upset if Bookwyrm got flipped (Chana...why...) so there's that.

Edited to add 2: @_Stick_, interested if this changes your calculus on Bookwyrm or not.

Edited to add 3:

Quote

Elkanah (2): _Stick_, Bookwyrm
Szeth_Pancakes (2): The Unknown Novel, Szeth_Pancakes
The Unknown Novel (1): Archer
Bookwyrm (2): Araris Valerian, JNV
Xinoehp (1): Kasimir

Ngl, despite my suspicions of the Elk train, I dislike it because I don't trust Stick and Bookwyrm, and I dislike the Bookwyrm train for my reservations and I don't trust Araris. And I distrust Araris because Stick and Araris are too at odds for this to make sense to me.

But I swear to the Almighty I have had it with ties.

Edited to add 4: What if we made players go into extra time if a cycle ends in a tie. 

:eyes:

And if after two semi-cycles of extra time, it's still a tie, we go into a penalty shootout :eyes:

Edited November 25, 2022 by Kasimir

[Stick. she/her]

Very cool. @Ookla the Omniscient if you thought the turn was over 24 hours earlier than it was meant to be, why didn't you switch your vote back to Mat (who you say you suspect) before the turn 'ended'? You decided to leave your vote on yourself, putting yourself in the lead tied with Elk. Why? Like, how was that productive for the village at all? It makes me suspect that misunderstanding wasn't entirely genuine. 

Elk has been MIA and my vote hasn't appeared to have done anything so Szeth.

57 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add 2: @_Stick_, interested if this changes your calculus on Bookwyrm or not.

ngl I've read this post about four times now - what do you mean? xD You're saying that due to less noticeable elim resistance you think that Bookwyrm is not E? I already agree with that

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

And I distrust Araris because Stick and Araris are too at odds for this to make sense to me

Are you implying that you think we're teamed and distancing?

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

Very cool. @Ookla the Omniscient if you thought the turn was over 24 hours earlier than it was meant to be, why didn't you switch your vote back to Mat (who you say you suspect) before the turn 'ended'? You decided to leave your vote on yourself, putting yourself in the lead tied with Elk. Why? Like, how was that productive for the village at all? It makes me suspect that misunderstanding wasn't entirely genuine. 

Elk has been MIA and my vote hasn't appeared to have done anything so Szeth.

Honestly? I was in the shower and didn’t realize it was 11:00 until I logged on.

[Mat he/him]

TUN

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I could get behind e!Araris and e!TUN, I think. Araris for being good with chilling on the Bookwyrm vote (as Kas said, very dependent on Book’s alignment) and TUN because I feel like he’s trying to pocket me lol

Is it working?

37 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

TUN

...and nevermind.

2 hours ago, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

can someone remind me what size elim team we’re looking at? my brain is flipping from 4 to 5 to 6 and i don’t know what it usually is for 20 people ._.

edit 2:tun likes to leave village leaders alive if they’re going down the wrong path, right? so e!tun=sheep illwei some and maybe re-eval what kas is saying

watch all the elims be in my ‘people i trust pile’

4 to 5, 6 is unlikely.

Technically, I like to kill people for going down the right path, rather than leave them alive if their going down the wrong one, which is a distinction.

A larger portion than you think probably will be.

@Kasimir, here's the reasons you asked for.

My initial reason for my Szeth vote was him blatantly sheeping you, which now that I think of it is really blatant for an elim, but then his withdrawal and subsequent excuse seemed contrived. 

Then his posts, especially his first few, n1 rubbed me the wrong way. I also happen to agree with Mat that his self vote feels odd to me, but I can't really fault a person for self voting. But then him asking if I was offering food was weird as well, like he thought that copying you would make him seem more villagery.

Edited November 25, 2022 by The Unknown Novel