Long Game 90: Undiluted Powers

[danex]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

2. So you selected a group based on rookie status, which generally correlates with lower activity levels, then gave clears due activity levels, except in the case of the outlier, who you voted for. 

I can’t tell if this is tunneling!archer or weirdpressuring!archer, but you have to see how that makes no sense. I literally ranked silver as null, that’s the exact opposite of a clear. I’m voting Book for their weird votes, which i haven’t seen from silver. i fail to see any logical fallacy there. 

[Mat]

19 hours ago, Illwei said:

Wish people would stop killing my village reads. Would be nice.

Matrim

I would like to hear a reasoning or two behind the vote on me, since I don't think I've seen that all game. It'd be appreciated, we don't want to make Shining's D1 post a self-fulfilling prophesy :P.

18 hours ago, Shining Silhouette said:

I'd like to look at <Danex, Archivist, TUN>

I know it was a gut list, but it's still mildly interesting to me that your PoE today is your second tier from EoD D3:

Quote

Silvereye, Mat

TUN, Dannex, Archivst

Xino, Archer/Devo, Cinnamon, Conq

Illwei, JNV, Shadow, Bookwyrm

And like, looking at it I kinda can get why; shadow and JNV are dead and Illwei shot Wiz, and xino's dead, but what changed with regards to Archer, Cin, Conq, and Bookwyrm? I could ask a similar thing to Archer. Not that I'm complaining, since my PoE aligns better with yours now, but it just kind of caught me off guard :P.

7 hours ago, Just a Silvereye said:

For Cinnamon, I am pretty sure that her teammates would have shouted her "don't claim" in the doc. Plus, she would have killed someone N1 if she was an elim. Finally, JNV as a target (for an elim coinshot) is weird because I think an elim would have preferred starting a train on them because they were e!read by several persons. On the other hand, I could see Cinnamon killing someone they expect to be elim.

Fwiw, I do lean vil on Cin, but the elim case against them would be that the claim is fake, not that they're an e!Coinshot.

Can someone tell me why Silver deserves to be village read? I haven't seen a reason. First person to do so will receive a response post from me explaining why Bookwyrm deserves to be village read.

A look at the VCs:

D1

• Ash (4): Shining, Cinnamon, xino, Bookwyrm
• xino (3): Mat, Ash, Conq
• TUN (1): TUN
• Mat (1): Dannnnnnex
• Silvereye (1): Stick

The trains being confirmed as v/v just makes this one less spicy; the loooow temperature of the turn to me indicates that no elims were really in danger (which could be as interpreted as a point towards v!TUN, but, well, the exe didn't end there and we have a lot of unknowns in the top two trains).

D2

• Turtle (5): Mat, shadow, Archivist, Xino, Stick
• Stick (4): Wizard, Illwei, Silver, Dannex
• Book (2): Shining, Devo/Archer
• Mat (1): JNV
• Cinnamon (1): Book
• Devo/Archer (1): Alvron

The trains being v/v here is more interesting, but again the focus was mostly just on them so I suppose the elims weren't in danger yet again? I forget who was pressured besides me/turtle/Stick. Wiz ending on Stick and the sheer amount of villagers on Turtle makes me wonder if the elims pushed Stick as their preferred mix of the two. I don't know how much I believe the Turtle train was pure and this by itself might bump Archivist down from null.

D3

• shadow (4): Mat, Shining, Archer, Bookwyrm
• Bookwyrm (2): Silvereye, xino
• Mat (2): Illwei, shadow
• JNV (1): Dannnnnnex

We can't be this far off track, maybe Bookwyrm is evil >> in that case I think it points to e!Archer though I'd have to check the timing of the exact votes. Shining voted in a more saving way I suppose. Silver voting on the secondary train twice in a row catches my eye, perhaps wanting to be involved but not get backlash when a villager flips? Idk, still looking for a reason to v read them since apparently everyone else leans that way.

I v read Archer as much as the next guy but I don't think we should chalk him up as clear. Illwei can be clear, but not Archer. Or Cin. That narrows our PoE too much.

Current VC:

• Mat (1): Illwei
• Bookwyrm (2): Dannex, Silver
• Dannex (3): Archer, TUN, Shining

Is it cowardly to leave it as is?

[Shining Silhouette]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I know it was a gut list, but it's still mildly interesting to me that your PoE today is your second tier from EoD D3:

And like, looking at it I kinda can get why; shadow and JNV are dead and Illwei shot Wiz, and xino's dead, but what changed with regards to Archer, Cin, Conq, and Bookwyrm? I could ask a similar thing to Archer. Not that I'm complaining, since my PoE aligns better with yours now, but it just kind of caught me off guard :P.

Yeahhhhhhh, no that's valid.

Honestly I'm just questioning myself and wondering if every cycle so far has been a V/V. :P.

I'm wanting to look in different places now.

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Fwiw, I do lean vil on Cin, but the elim case against them would be that the claim is fake, not that they're an e!Coinshot.

 

When'd you change your opinion?

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Can someone tell me why Silver deserves to be village read? I haven't seen a reason. First person to do so will receive a response post from me explaining why Bookwyrm deserves to be village read.

Said this D3.

It's not good reasoning, but like........ :eyes:

Quote

Silvereye [this is D2]

Very very very tempted to outright clear Silvereye based on this one post

Quote

I have good vibes about Shining Silhouette

Who says someone's full username after almost a week of playing? I don't think someone in the elim doc. Doubt this is coached, it's too random of a thing to be coached. But I really like this

 

[Mat]

Just now, Shining Silhouette said:

When'd you change your opinion?

I... don't think I did? :P. I outlined why the fake claim was plausible (never did get a response to that, alas) but then Cin's megapost won me over :P.

Just now, Shining Silhouette said:

It's not good reasoning, but like........ :eyes:

I don't see how that's AI in the slightest. The only thing I'd say is that Silver isn't e/e with you, I guess.

[---]

I think I'm broken

The more i read, the more i like bookwyrm, the more I like Danex.

The reason I'm voting mat right now is because there has to be a more experienced player on the team. Could it be conq? Maybe, i also dislike the conq slot. but Mat also V read Xino, Alv, and Kas strongly enough in my opinion to make their deaths (theoreteically for being village read) more suspicious to me.

16 hours ago, Archer said:

D1

Ashbringer (4): Shining Silhouette, Cinnamon, xinoehp512, The Bookwyrm
xinoehp512 (3): Matrim's Dice, Ashbringer, Conquestor
The Unknown Novel (1): The Unknown Novel
Matrim's Dice (1): Dannnnnnex
Just a Silvereye (1): _Stick_

D2
Turtle (5): Mat, Shadow, Archivist, Xino, Stick
Stick (4): Wizard, Illwei, Silver, Dannex
Book (2): Shining, Devotary
Mat (1): JNV
Cinnamon (1): Book
Devotary (1): Alvron

D3

shadow1 (4): Matrim's Dice, Shining Silhouette, Archer, The Bookwyrm
The Bookwyrm (2): Just a Silvereye, xinoehp512
Matrim's Dice (2): Illwei, shadow1
JNV (1): Dannnnnnex

I feel like we need...a little more coloring here.

If I go extremely level 1:

One in Shining/Bookwyrm
One in Mat/Conq
One in TUN/Danex

One in Mat/Archivist
One in Silver/Danex
One in Shining/Bookwyrm

One in Mat/Shining/Bookwyrm
One in Silver/Danex

Noting the dichotomies pretty much stay the same throughout the days.

Matrim was on the leading wagon all days -D1, but D1 it was almost the flipped wagon. Other than that, there hasn't been any real pushback on anything done.

The kills so far have been just widely village read players- people that no one is going to end up pushing over on the future days. Kas, Alv, and Xino.

I'm having trouble continually clearing shining. So many things they have done make me think that they're village but...for the sake of today i'll keep going off that.
I'm trying to read through, but it feels like there's nothing to get out of Wiz's posts.

Illwei
Archer
Danex
Shining
Cinnamon

Matrim
Conq
TUN
Archivist
Silver
Bookwyrm

Max 3 Elims in the bottom pile at the least.

Again, we're at 7:4 most likely, maybe 8:3. today if we hit wrong we'd be going down to either 5:4 by tomorrow (if cin doesn't shoot) or 4:4 and a loss if he does.

If Shining is an Elim, then their teammates are within [Mat, Archivist, Silver, Danex]

This is all disorganized, I know, so is my brain.

Edited November 1, 2022 by Illwei
forgot a bracket looks like

[Shining Silhouette]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I... don't think I did? :P. I outlined why the fake claim was plausible (never did get a response to that, alas) but then Cin's megapost won me over :P.

Okay, fair. Said this without looking back, so I might've been thinking of other players' progressions- I just thought my v read of Cin was rarer than it seems it actually is.

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don't see how that's AI in the slightest. The only thing I'd say is that Silver isn't e/e with you, I guess.

I suppose yeah.

It just seems to me that if you were in the doc for D1 and N1 that you'd pick up on not using peoples' full usernames but it is also a silly point

@Just a Silvereye, thoughts?

[Mat]

21 minutes ago, Illwei said:

The reason I'm voting mat right now is because there has to be a more experienced player on the team. Could it be conq? Maybe, i also dislike the conq slot. but Mat also V read Xino, Alv, and Kas strongly enough in my opinion to make their deaths (theoreteically for being village read) more suspicious to me.

I'm sure I don't have to explain why this is annoying to me  but on the v read point, yes I v read xino and Kas, but so did like everyone else :P. Alv I had that point about a derp clear but that was only half a real read and no one had him as elim either. So I guess you can make that point about me but it applies to the rest of the player list too.

23 minutes ago, Illwei said:

if cin doesn't shoot

Do you think they should? I guess it depends what happens today.

24 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

It just seems to me that if you were in the doc for D1 and N1 that you'd pick up on not using peoples' full usernames but it is also a silly point

No one in thread was using full usernames either :P.

[+Whysper]

21 hours ago, Illwei said:

also yay whysper <3

21 hours ago, Archer said:

Hi. Sorry, I'm having trouble hearing you, would you mind speaking louder?

Haha, yeah, get that a lot

18 hours ago, dannnnnnex said:

But back to focusing on the newbies, the ones remaining are Cin, Archivist, Silver, and Bookwyrm. I have to believe that at least one of them is elim, so that's the pool I'm gonna focus on. 

Ahh okay, so Cin is a newbie. I was wondering about that cause a couple of their posts triggered alarms unless they were new. I thought I'd seen the name Bookwyrm before, but maybe I'm mixing them up with someone else.

16 hours ago, Archer said:

I suspect Danex chose to look at the remaining rookies because doing the inverse analysis implicates them. No GM tries to stack their team with fresh faces; they prefer to play a disproportionate amount of experienced players.

Do the GMs here actually change around the teams based on experience? I didn't think that was usually done. Anyway, I don't think Dannex is necessarily suggesting that the Elim team is "stacked" with inexperienced players but just that there is likely at least one. Which I guess is okay, though I don't know that there is evidence to necessarily support that. But it is fine to start looking into that group at this point in the game.

13 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Why are people v!reading Archer and Illwei exactly? I kinda get the feeling they're being effort cleared, which maybe for Illwei, but definitely not for Archer, and effort clearing isn't very good in general anyways.

Yes, I think I have been mostly effort-clearing Archer. And thinking that I mostly agree with his arguments. But now him getting on Dannex about the inexperienced players is interesting and something I'm thinking about. I guess I can see his point about how even if there is maybe one inexperienced player on the Elim team, the majority is more likely among the experienced ones. And going down this path will only make him look worse if he's still alive in the future.

Illwei is someone who I always have trouble figuring out.  I tend to keep her around null, but I think she is trending upwards for me.

Going to go ahead and post this and continue later since not sure how much I'll get interrupted.

[---]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Do you think they should? I guess it depends what happens today.

I think that with the way things are going, if we can find a hard dichotomy between two players then voting off one and shooting the other if it doesn't find an elim is the easiest way to get an elim. In my mind? it's you and conq.

[+Whysper]

13 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

My pool of elims is looking something like Da(n=n)ex, Illwei, Bookwyrm, and slightly Mat for being a consensus elim read that I read as neutral. Even though I agree with the end result, the way Archer is going after Da(n=n)ex feels a little odd, so toss them in as the same willingness to exe as Mat. 

Tiered:

Illwei (Maybe equal with Bookwyrm)

Da(n=n)ex/Bookwyrm (Da(n=n)ex preferred)

Mat/Archer (Mat preferred)

Archivist (almost true null, but I've gotten a slightly negative tone from a couple posts. Willing to chalk it up to newbieness though)

I'll dismiss Illwei for now since they don't seem to be widely elim read. Da(n=n)ex voted for Bookwyrm and seems to be aiming for a mix on them, so not e/e. Out of those two I prefer Da(n=n)ex, so I think that's where I'll place my vote.

Given that you have both Dannex and Archer in your pool, and you think Archer going after Dannex feels odd, do you feel like this would be Elim theater? So like what does the flip from one of them tell you? I guess since you say Dannex first, do you think his flip tells you anything about Archer's alignment?

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

I think that with the way things are going, if we can find a hard dichotomy between two players then voting off one and shooting the other if it doesn't find an elim is the easiest way to get an elim. In my mind? it's you and conq.

Fair enough. But if you’re that sure then let’s just exe Whysper today :P. I don’t love the ‘experienced’ argument for obvious reasons but I also don’t see why Dannex/TUN/Shining couldn’t count for that. I guess since you v lean Dannex/Shining and TUN is lower active? Archer/Devo qualifies too, if we want to paranoid.

It feels like an overly meta dichotomy to stake the game on ig

[+Whysper]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

21 hours ago, Shining Silhouette said:

I'd like to look at <Danex, Archivist, TUN>

I know it was a gut list, but it's still mildly interesting to me that your PoE today is your second tier from EoD D3:

Quote

Silvereye, Mat

TUN, Dannex, Archivst

Xino, Archer/Devo, Cinnamon, Conq

Illwei, JNV, Shadow, Bookwyrm

And like, looking at it I kinda can get why; shadow and JNV are dead and Illwei shot Wiz, and xino's dead, but what changed with regards to Archer, Cin, Conq, and Bookwyrm? I could ask a similar thing to Archer. Not that I'm complaining, since my PoE aligns better with yours now, but it just kind of caught me off guard :P.

I like this from Mat. Very good observation.

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Fair enough. But if you’re that sure then let’s just exe Whysper today :P.

And now very bad suggestion from Mat...

[---]

I think one thing to note about today is that even though if we vote wrong we most likely lose, even if there are 4 Elims they are unable to hammer if cin is vil. Which, for all intents and purposes, we're going to pretend they are.

Teams????

For the sake of my sanity, I'm taking out shining, Archer, and cinnamon for now.

	Matrim	Conq	TUN	Archivist	Silver	Danex	Bookwyrm
Matrim
Conq
TUN
Archivist
Silver
Danex
Bookwyrm

I do think there's only one in TUN/Danex, but that's a very weak read based on not much, I'll try and pull something up.

If anyone has ideas about who's not paired at this point I am accepting suggestions :P.

 

[+Whysper]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

If Shining is an Elim, then their teammates are within [Mat, Archivist, Silver, Danex]

The interaction between Mat and Shining doesn't feel E-E, so I'm removing that combo.

EDIT:

BTW dropping my current read list.

V 

• Whysper 
• Archer (not E-E with Dannex) 
• Matrim's Dice (not E-E with Shining) 
• Just a Silvereye 
• The Bookwyrm 
• Dannnnnnex (not E-E with Archer) 
• Illwei 
• Shining Silhouette (not E-E with Mat) 
• The Aspiring Archivist 
• Cinnamon 
• The Unknown Novel 

E 

Edited November 1, 2022 by Whysper
adding current read list

[danex]

7 hours ago, Archer said:

And the Xino kill indicated no interest in obtaining thread control or dealing with the village power roles

The lack of killing Cin is strange, ill give you that. Perhaps redirected? Someone would've claimed the redirect then though.
My guess is the elims had reason to guess that Cin wouldn't hit one of them.

7 hours ago, Archer said:

which means the elims were confident we were all headed in the wrong direction yesterday. 

I think it just means the elims were confident Cin was headed in the wrong direction. And Cin's only recent suspicion has been JNV, who the Elims would have known is vil. Seems like the xino kill was just a balance between low-info and experienced player. 

 

Speaking of that @Cinnamon, you haven't shown up yet. Everyone is just glossing over the JNV kill, that was you right? Anything to say about hitting a villager again?
just reread some more of that whole bit where you killed stick, and i think that deserves some more looking into.

are we all of the consensus that Wiz redirected Cin onto Stick? Nobody has even brought up alternate possibilities, which I find a bit weird. I mean, I agree, that seems most likely, but the fact that that aspect of it all has barely been talked about is strange.

1 hour ago, Whysper said:

I thought I'd seen the name Bookwyrm before

They're pretty active elsewhere on the shard, maybe you've seen them around.

1 hour ago, Whysper said:

Do the GMs here actually change around the teams based on experience?

I think its generally up to the GM, but I don't think most do purely random teams. Like, imagine if Araris did purely random alignments, and the entire elim team was newbies. Which in this game is entirely possible, since we had like 6 players for whom this was their very first game. That would be horribly unbalanced. If you have a player roster of all semi-experienced players, doing it randomly is more likely, but even then i wouldn't be surprised if GMs made a few small adjustments, using the random set as a starting point.

45 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Teams????

Red means not e/e, yellow means likely e/e? Am i reading your chart right?

45 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I do think there's only one in TUN/Danex, but that's a very weak read based on not much, I'll try and pull something up.

please do i'm curious =P

[---]

Just now, dannnnnnex said:

Red means not e/e, yellow means likely e/e? Am i reading your chart right?

nah, yellow is like, maybe e/e. lol. white is there's nothing saying they aren't that i can find.

@Whysper Cinnamon is a coinshot (not sure if v or not but leaning maybe idk wolves didn't kill them) and I shot wiz (flipped wolf) on N2.

There was a different?? bookworm who played a game before.

Anyways I still think Danex is v.

[+Whysper]

6 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

1 hour ago, Whysper said:

I thought I'd seen the name Bookwyrm before

They're pretty active elsewhere on the shard, maybe you've seen them around.

 

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

There was a different?? bookworm who played a game before.

Yeah, I think it was probably a different Bookworm actually.

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@Whysper Cinnamon is a coinshot (not sure if v or not but leaning maybe idk wolves didn't kill them) and I shot wiz (flipped wolf) on N2.

Ahh okay. I think I saw talk of a Coinshot, but might have missed that it was Cinn. I did see that you claimed the shot on Wiz and that no one has cc'd so far.

 

13 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

I think its generally up to the GM, but I don't think most do purely random teams. Like, imagine if Araris did purely random alignments, and the entire elim team was newbies. Which in this game is entirely possible, since we had like 6 players for whom this was their very first game. That would be horribly unbalanced. If you have a player roster of all semi-experienced players, doing it randomly is more likely, but even then i wouldn't be surprised if GMs made a few small adjustments, using the random set as a starting point.

Interesting. I guess I could see making changes if the entire team was newbies. But I'm surprised how it sounds like adjustments are common. Though the games here are much more random, so then adjustments are probably needed more often. Even the player count is entirely just up to how many sign up unlike other places where they balance the player count and roles ahead of time. Cool, I like the variety.  

[The Unknown Ajah]

2 hours ago, Whysper said:

Given that you have both Dannex and Archer in your pool, and you think Archer going after Dannex feels odd, do you feel like this would be Elim theater? So like what does the flip from one of them tell you? I guess since you say Dannex first, do you think his flip tells you anything about Archer's alignment?

I think they aren't e/e because Archer probably would have retracted his vote if they were, but v/e, e/v, and v/v are all possible. Since I'm e!reading both a decent bit, I'm thinking it's not v/v.

[Cinnamon]

Hello, sorry I haven’t checked in today I’m really sick, and I have basically just been puking and sleeping. That means I will either be offline, or online a lot, but I wont be able to contribute much to the discussion.
am I using blue right? Anyway, my brain is broken so I am not going to do like an extensive read list or anything but here is a rough Idea of where I’m at (in no particular order.

Possibly E

Bookwyrm

Mat

TUN

Archie (Archivist not Archer)

Null/ I have no clue

Shining silhouette

slightly more elim

Just a Silvereye

Have reasons to suspect both ways but leaning vill 

Illwei

Archer- less sure of vill on him

slight V

Whysper - I strong V read conq but we didn’t see much of them 

slightly more V

dannnex- don’t ask me why, I just do

disclaimer: these are all subject to change at any point in time. I have fever brain so my judgment is most definitely clouded so take this with a grain of salt. 
 

6 hours ago, dannnnnnex said:

I think it just means the elims were confident Cin was headed in the wrong direction. And Cin's only recent suspicion has been JNV, who the Elims would have known is vil. Seems like the xino kill was just a balance between low-info and experienced player. 

The only reason I can think of that they would have been confident is if they knew who I was going to kill and the only person who knew beyond reasonable doubt was Archer. I PMed him saying that I V! read him and asking him for advice on who to kill, O wanted to see what he would say, not just for advice, but also to see what he would say to get a more solid read. He was very nice and eventually we settled on JNV. (So yes to answer your question I did kill them) After our interaction I was pretty strongly Vreading Archer, however, as we know know JNV was V. I cannot possibly think Archer E for making a mistake (especially given I made the same one) but I know that he is really smart and can’t help wondering if it was all a gambit, I am inclined to trust him, for now, I definitely don’t want any him to die, but I thought I should make sure you guys have all the information.  
 

6 hours ago, dannnnnnex said:

are we all of the consensus that Wiz redirected Cin onto Stick? Nobody has even brought up alternate possibilities, which I find a bit weird. I mean, I agree, that seems most likely, but the fact that that aspect of it all has barely been talked about is strange.

 Now this is a VERY good point. It seems fairly safe to assume that it was Wiz who Rioted me as they are the only known rioter but… it may have been someone else. Lots of people were suspicious of me at that point and there are plenty of people who it may have been. I understand that if it was you you may not want to speak up because you caused a Village death, but it would be very useful… maybe … I don’t know… Rusting fever brain! Ahhhhhh.

One last thing before my brain inevitably shuts down and stops working. 
When you target somebody for an action are they alerted? If so, we can assume safely that it was Wiz or another elim who rioted my action.

I thought that a person would be alerted, but I don’t know for sure. 
 

oh, and apologies for lack of RP I have been doing exam revision for school and I have been really busy, my plan was to write two for each day … that aged like milk. 

good bye, my brain is about to retreat into the netherworld and I am going to get some Panadol for my headache. Hope this helps.
 

 

 

 

 

 

[---]

Why did you strongly v read conq?

[Mat]

I reread Bookwyrm and like I don’t think I realized how hedgy they’d been until now. I know that’s something new!me did quite a bit though. I guess it’s like I said D2, the reasons I personally v read Bookwyrm can easily be interpreted as reasons to e read them so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

Dannex, do people generally v read him or e read him? I genuinely can’t tell. Cause like the only people who strongly v read him are the conf Mistborn and the conf Coinshot but he only had three votes. Which is the leading train I suppose. I guess I don’t know if a train like this forms on an elim. I still have him on elim lean but that’s an old read that doesn’t consider the effort today.

[Archer]

It's pretty out of character for Mat to go this long into the round without voting. It's also convenient because by not committing, they don't tip their hand about who their potential teammates are during this critical period. They're not pressing like I'd expect a player of their calibre to. My preference is Danex because I think they're using bad logic to lead us to the statistically less likely options. But my backup vote is now Mat.

Consolidation is important. Don't rely on the Coinshot as a backup because they can be blocked - remember that game when Stick tricked us and the attempted coinshotting of the elim was blocked. :(. 

I'll be on after class ends, which is pretty near rollover, so good luck y'all. 

Also, Shining, I like your pfp! 

[+Whysper]

12 hours ago, Cinnamon said:

The only reason I can think of that they would have been confident is if they knew who I was going to kill and the only person who knew beyond reasonable doubt was Archer. I PMed him saying that I V! read him and asking him for advice on who to kill, O wanted to see what he would say, not just for advice, but also to see what he would say to get a more solid read. He was very nice and eventually we settled on JNV. (So yes to answer your question I did kill them) After our interaction I was pretty strongly Vreading Archer, however, as we know know JNV was V. I cannot possibly think Archer E for making a mistake (especially given I made the same one) but I know that he is really smart and can’t help wondering if it was all a gambit, I am inclined to trust him, for now, I definitely don’t want any him to die, but I thought I should make sure you guys have all the information.

Out of curiosity, who else came up as possible targets in your conversation? Did Archer make any other suggestions himself? Was there another person you both were strongly bouncing between and then settled on JNV?

18 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

I think they aren't e/e because Archer probably would have retracted his vote if they were, but v/e, e/v, and v/v are all possible. Since I'm e!reading both a decent bit, I'm thinking it's not v/v.

Yeah, okay, I'm pretty much of the same view that they aren't e/e

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Dannex, do people generally v read him or e read him? I genuinely can’t tell. Cause like the only people who strongly v read him are the conf Mistborn and the conf Coinshot but he only had three votes. Which is the leading train I suppose. I guess I don’t know if a train like this forms on an elim. I still have him on elim lean but that’s an old read that doesn’t consider the effort today.

I'm leaning him V

[Mat]

18 minutes ago, Archer said:

It's pretty out of character for Mat to go this long into the round without voting. It's also convenient because by not committing, they don't tip their hand about who their potential teammates are during this critical period. They're not pressing like I'd expect a player of their calibre to. My preference is Danex because I think they're using bad logic to lead us to the statistically less likely options. But my backup vote is now Mat.

Disagree about the voting thing but whatever :P. I’m bad at self meta anyway. But see below to maybe get an idea of my thinking about voting?

Isn’t Dannnex’s logic effectively the same as bad as yours? He was looking in the new players and you were looking at the experienced ones. You said yourself the groups were the same size and we agreed that the elim team most likely has a mix of both. On paper, that looks the same to me but maybe I’m glossing over something :P. It’s not a sticking point for me either way.

I read Bookwyrm village for some reason. Dannex I had as a gut elim but that read went stale and now people are vil reading him including Illwei and Cin so it doesn’t feel right to put him ahead 4-2 when like do we not need consensus? I haven’t backread Dannex though

If I were to just vote based on PoE it’d probably be Silvereye but that feels like a huge cop out. Archer is either powerwolfing or powertowning and it’s impossible to tell the difference >>

Bookwyrm’s flip would probably be useful since they’ve survived being up for awhile so I wouldn’t mind it tied tbh. Part of me thinks I’m reading them village just because I have been and idk about that

[Archer]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Disagree about the voting thing but whatever :P. I’m bad at self meta anyway. But see below to maybe get an idea of my thinking about voting?

My impression of your thinking about voting was based on your previous statements:

Quote

 

--False, you should do it anyway since it adds to the larger interest of the village for information gathering purposes. Votes a lot of the time mean intentions, and intentions a lot of the time mean alignment. It’s why VC analysis is so helpful when you know what to look for.

--Oh come on, this is page four.  I’m sure you can come up with something beyond a lazy continuation vote

--evidence is hard to come by without a lucky Seeker scan and we shouldn’t rely on that. And the D1 vote has successfully found elims many times in the past.And besides, I think wrong with a higher chance of being right later brings more village wins than striving to be wrong as few times as humanly possible, but I feel like this is the sort of thing where we agree to disagree.

--Casting a vote isn’t elim behavior, it’s normal behavior

 

These are not the words of a man who commonly withholds his vote during crunch time. 

Regarding this, emphasis on the bold: 

Quote

Isn’t Dannnex’s logic effectively the same as bad as yours? He was looking in the new players and you were looking at the experienced ones. You said yourself the groups were the same size and we agreed that the elim team most likely has a mix of both.

That's one point of contention. I think the experienced pool is mostly elims while the rookie pool has at best, a minority of elims. And then Danex used flawed logic to PoE a Bookwyrm vote because their justifications for eliminating candidates were unreasonable.