future sight, possibilities, and free will

[cometaryorbit]

I'm wondering about how future sight actually works, with regard to seeing single things vs. multiple possibilities.

We've heard from Honor in Dalinar's visions, and seen with Kelsier's vision of the Spiritual Realm through Fuzz/Preservation, that full-on Spiritual Realm vision of the future shows a lot of branching possibilities, hard to interpret. 

We see that atium Allomancy shows a single future shadow of any object or person, unless interfered with by other future-knowledge. Electrum Allomancy shows multiple possibilities by default, but that seems to be because it's always "interfered with" by the Allomancer's own future knowledge from electrum.

From Renarin's visions blocking Odium's future sight, it seems that the "interference" principle applies to full Spiritual Realm future sight too.

But why does atium Allomancy act like the future is predestined when the broader future sight doesn't? Does normal use of atium show a single shadow only because it's only a couple seconds into the future so the atium burner is seeing actions already decided upon?

[EmulatonStromenkiin]

Atium can only show a single possible future in a very close frame of reference, when Elend burned Duralumin with Atium he saw directly into the Spiritual realm, where future sight and possibility reside. Atium seems to project the possible future that is so likely it is almost certain, which is only really possible for within a few seconds, but you can interfere with it in other ways, as shown by Vin's battle with Zane. If you can see the future, you can change it, thereby showing that Atium shows a possibility if you did not interfere, and gives you the capacity to use the information properly. You are welcome to ask for further clarification.

[cometaryorbit]

I guess my question is why atium doesn't show multiple shadows occasionally even without other future sight interference, if someone's actions are not yet decided upon.

[AerionBFII]

Future sight in the Cosmere  is something I have been dying to know about for YEARS. 

There are multiple methods of achieving it with Shards being far above everybody else, and some individual shards being better than others. Wyrn seems to do something a little differently however. 
 

Futuresight seems to work that the further you look into the future/spiritual realm the more possibilities there are. Which is very realistic and the inclusion of if you get two people looking into the future it becomes hazier or murkier. 
Atium on the other hand is a brief glimpse into the future ie a few seconds. I think that is it’s edge, it is small In scale. Nothing like what Renarin does which seems far broader and deeper and becomes harder to interpret. 
 

When two Atium users come face to face it’s cancelled out and follows the same principle unless has one more atium. Renarin seems to be seeing things weeks or months in advance so it becomes more vague. 

Edited March 23, 2022 by AerionBFII

[EmulatonStromenkiin]

1 hour ago, cometaryorbit said:

I guess my question is why atium doesn't show multiple shadows occasionally even without other future sight interference, if someone's actions are not yet decided upon.

It can, see reference to Vin and Zane's fight in The Well of Ascension. The most immediate choices are at a level that are almost certain due to how fast humans can react, but you wouldn't be able to tell what color shirt someone is going to be wearing next week.

[cometaryorbit]

6 minutes ago, EmulatonStromenkiin said:

It can, see reference to Vin and Zane's fight in The Well of Ascension.

That's still information indirectly gained from future sight, through Vin watching Zane react to atium-gained information.

I'm more wondering how atium can predict whether you'll dodge left or right if you haven't seen the attack coming yet and so haven't decided yet. Is the idea that quasi-reflexive "decisions" are basically subconsciously determined in a way fully willful ones aren't? (Which might make RL sense, actually.)

[EmulatonStromenkiin]

18 minutes ago, cometaryorbit said:

I'm more wondering how atium can predict whether you'll dodge left or right if you haven't seen the attack coming yet and so haven't decided yet. Is the idea that quasi-reflexive "decisions" are basically subconsciously determined in a way fully willful ones aren't? (Which might make RL sense, actually.)

Yea, that makes a lot of sense, especially for how people react to things. Atium partially causes you to subconsciously react to things as well, which is why the split would cause a reacting to reacting to reacting loop between two people, which would be what causes the split in shadows, which makes sense. It has been noted that even Renarin's futuresight interferes with Odium's, so the Atium shadow split might be a byproduct of futuresights interacting, with similar effects across the cosmere.

[SwordNimiForPresident]

Free will is a lie. Causality cannot be broken.

That being said, future sight in the Cosmere seems to follow Dune rules, where the future is like a tree with each moment branching into infinity and the present being the trunk. The further up the tree you go, the more branches there are and the smaller they get. When someone looks at the tree, they inevitably change it by making choices based on what they see. This messes up what everyone else sees and causes a sort of feedback where the future is in flux because everyone that can see it is constantly changing it. With that in mind, the one that sees the furthest up the tree is the one with the most control. Hence Preservation beating Ruin and Honor/Cultivation beating Odium (so far).

[EmulatonStromenkiin]

5 hours ago, SwordNimiForPresident said:

Causality cannot be broken.

This just means no backwards time travel. Free will is the essence of existence.

[+Oltux72]

7 hours ago, SwordNimiForPresident said:

Free will is a lie. Causality cannot be broken.

As far as we know the universe contains truly random events like radioactive decay which happens when it happens without a cause strictly speaking. Einstein did not like it, but he never could didprove it.

1 hour ago, EmulatonStromenkiin said:

This just means no backwards time travel. Free will is the essence of existence.

That does not mean that it is true though. The universe may be meaningless. We must not engage in wishful thinking.

[SwordNimiForPresident]

4 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

As far as we know the universe contains truly random events like radioactive decay which happens when it happens without a cause strictly speaking. Einstein did not like it, but he never could didprove it.

An event appearing to be random is not the same as it actually being random. Just because we can’t explain it does not mean it cannot be explained.

[SwordNimiForPresident]

6 hours ago, EmulatonStromenkiin said:

This just means no backwards time travel. Free will is the essence of existence.

Delusion is the essence of existence. The idea that we are the masters of our own thoughts gives most people some measure of comfort and a sense of self determination.

The truth is that physics rules the Universe and we are simply the sum of the fields that comprise us and the ones that make up our environment.

sorry for double posting.

Edited March 25, 2022 by SwordNimiForPresident

[Tamriel Wolfsbaine]

Every time I think of future sight I think of the show "Thats so Raven" where every episode the very act of trying to avoid the future is what leads to the future.  If Raven never saw the future 99% of those events and things she saw would never have happened.  It was in fact her working so hard to avoid them that made them happen. 

I hope future sight doesn't end up just being foreshadowing that we see what is going to happen but it is the characters efforts to avoid it that ultimately brings it to pass.  Which I guess could be the end game for some shards.  Show a possible future where they understand that you will go down a path to lead to it in an effort to avoid it.  

I have always believed omnipotence doesn't necessarily mean someone can see the exact event that is going to happen but that they see all of the potential endings and each turn that is taken narrows down the potential endings.  Thus being able to see all of the possible destinations and the paths leading to them allows you to know all.  

Future sight could well be a show of 1 possible ending and that act of seeing it ends up being what nudges you down the set of pathways leading to it.  

Seeing a couple seconds into the future make it far more narrow and far more likely to be an accurate future as opposed to far out sightings of the future requiring more manipulation to get you on that path.  Granted seeing a potential ending is a massive manipulation towards the path that a shard would want you to take.  

[PurpurPhönix]

3 hours ago, SwordNimiForPresident said:

An event appearing to be random is not the same as it actually being random. Just because we can’t explain it does not mean it cannot be explained.

There are experiments to tell if there is some hidden variable that we just can't measure or true randomness and the results of those experiments have indicated that many quantum events are just truly random

[Thanatos]

If the spirit realm is past, present and future all in one, then there is no freewill. There just playing the part of the story uncle Andy set down when creating the Cosmere. 

What was, is and going to be is already set in stone. 

Could Uncle Andy have created a Cosmere where events played out differently, yes. So he chose this Cosmere thereby everyones fate is already written. 

Hence, no freewill.

[Tamriel Wolfsbaine]

51 minutes ago, Thanatos said:

If the spirit realm is past, present and future all in one, then there is no freewill. There just playing the part of the story uncle Andy set down when creating the Cosmere. 

What was, is and going to be is already set in stone. 

Could Uncle Andy have created a Cosmere where events played out differently, yes. So he chose this Cosmere thereby everyones fate is already written. 

Hence, no freewill.

If future sight interferes with futuresight was the winner of an atium atium battle already determined before the players ever started burning their atium?  

If a vision of the future gained from future sight ever doesn't come true then was it future sight or a lie to the person from the start predetermined to be a lie the minute they saw the vision that turned out to be a lie? 

[SwordNimiForPresident]

3 hours ago, PurpurPhönix said:

There are experiments to tell if there is some hidden variable that we just can't measure or true randomness and the results of those experiments have indicated that many quantum events are just truly random

Those experiments have shown that we don’t know all the variables. There are innumerable examples of causality holding and a very small number of examples of causality “maybe” not holding.

[EmulatonStromenkiin]

3 hours ago, Thanatos said:

If the spirit realm is past, present and future all in one, then there is no freewill. There just playing the part of the story uncle Andy set down when creating the Cosmere. 

What was, is and going to be is already set in stone. 

Could Uncle Andy have created a Cosmere where events played out differently, yes. So he chose this Cosmere thereby everyones fate is already written. 

Hence, no freewill.

It's more like, mortals exist in a different way of time than immortals, and a part of them belongs to the spiritual realm.

[Thanatos]

The Shards exist in the SR. I see the PR as Uncle Andy pulling investiture from the SR to create the PR and CR. The living thinking beings further shape the CR. 

All of the Cosmere is Uncle Andy, the SR, PR and CR. Even biological life is Uncle Andy. 

With regards to freewill not existing, atium and future sight shows people potential futures Uncle Andy rejected and/or the actual future. Depending on how good their future sight is. 

If that makes sense.

[EmulatonStromenkiin]

A possible solution to the freewill thing is that the general outcome is predetermined, but there are many ways of getting there, and small choices like what to where are not affected.

[cometaryorbit]

I don't think anything in the cosmere is long-term predetermined, longer term futuresight always shows branching possibilities. The only oddity is atium's second-or-two single shadow.

But even with atium, we don't see exactly what Elend sees with duralumin + atium, but it's pretty clearly from Secret History and WoBs the full Spiritual Realm vision.

The Spiritual Realm is kind-of timeless, but it shows branching future possibilities- we see that directly with Kelsier's Fuzz-assisted vision in Secret History, and Honor says so in Dalinar's visions. So no predetermination there.

Adonalsium totally could have set up a long term plan, but I think that would work more on the same mechanisms as Preservation's plan in Mistborn.

[Shawn Malpass]

I have always liked philosophy and a philosophical approach to life. For example, I studied the topic of free will and wrote an essay about it.

Edited March 29, 2022 by Shawn Malpass

[Returned]

I think that one issue is that free will is not the same as random. If you were betting at a roulette wheel you would use some mental process to choose an outcome to bet on, and it wouldn't deny free will at all if that process played out the same way in identical situations with no new information. If a time traveler jumped back and observed that same bet over and over again without interfering in any way, there's no particular reason to think that your thought process would vary any more than the outcome of the mechanical process of spinning the wheel itself.

 

That's the kind of future-sight that atium grants, what will happen if you don't act to alter it, and at least in every instance we've seen it is perfectly reliable. Someone who always chooses to play rock in rock-paper-scissors has free will and their play can always be predicted. That they could make a different choice isn't negated by their never making that different choice.

Shardic future-sight seems different than atium in that it extends out over much longer periods of time (allowing for lots of branching possibilities, possibly including decisions by individuals), is opposed by other beings that can see the future to some degree (causing interference, as noted in a previous post in this thread), is possible to misinterpret or misapply (Ruin's knowledge of the future didn't help him too much), and is in all explicit cases we've seen shepherded by deific beings who have preferred outcomes (suggesting that their actions reinforce the future they prefer to come to pass).

It would be very interesting to see a character peer into the future and just observe. The closest we've gotten is Renarin, and his visions explicitly aren't guarantees even when he himself doesn't interfere. Here I'm thinking of Dalinar not falling to Odium, rather than Jasnah not executing him. Possibly Lightsong also, but we don't really know how much information he gained before he was Returned.

Alternatively... Fortune? We don't really know how that Shard works, but is mentioned as being associated with predicting the future. Maybe it's something akin to the Wheel in Wheel of Time. You can choose whatever you want, but in most cases the choice is either irrelevant to the future or not one that you can actually see through.

 

What really gets me on this topic is gold Allomancy. How does it produce so few gold shadows, and how are they selected? That seems to me to be a much stronger effect, predicting a lifetime of different choices and the different situations they might have produced. I've squared the circle by thinking it's more psychological and personal-character based, like "who could you have been, if you thought and chose differently?" rather than "the real world would have produced this exact person if you had stew on April 7th rather than a sandwich". But who knows?

Edited March 29, 2022 by Returned

[Thanatos]

Returned,

Agree, thats why i think there is no free will.

The SR is past present and future all in one all at the same time. Its set in stone so to speak.

My interpretation of differing futures are merely Uncle Andy's Cosmere architect plans he rejected.

Because Uncle Andy thought it, it still exists as a, say watermark underlying the Cosmere he chose to be.

Aka this Cosmere that we and the characters experience.

If that makes sense.

...

Edit.

And remember Uncle Andy IS the Cosmere, he chose how he wanted to be/evolve.

And if Uncle Andy is a Shard of the universal God, It chose how Uncle Andy would be. 

And if the universal God exists, i believe its The Beyond, who shattered to become many, to experience. As per the coppermind...

Quote

The One knew everything but had experienced nothing. And so the One became Many in order to experience all things. As each experience is different, it brings completeness to the One. Eventually, all will be gathered back in when the sum of land is attained and they will once again become One. Every person is a different mind of a single being experiencing different lives. As Many, they need ignorance. Each fragment of the One’s mind has its own body with different passions and inclinations. They exist in variety to experience all kinds of thought. That means some people must know and others must not. Just like some people must be rich and others poor.

As all who die is 'pulled' into The Beyond.

Mic drop.

Edited March 30, 2022 by Thanatos

[Frustration]

2 hours ago, Thanatos said:

Returned,

Agree, thats why i think there is no free will.

The SR is past present and future all in one all at the same time. Its set in stone so to speak.

My interpretation of differing futures are merely Uncle Andy's Cosmere architect plans he rejected.

Because Uncle Andy thought it, it still exists as a, say watermark underlying the Cosmere he chose to be.

Aka this Cosmere that we and the characters experience.

If that makes sense.

...

Edit.

And remember Uncle Andy IS the Cosmere, he chose how he wanted to be/evolve.

And if Uncle Andy is a Shard of the universal God, It chose how Uncle Andy would be. 

And if the universal God exists, i believe its The Beyond, who shattered to become many, to experience. As per the coppermind...

As all who die is 'pulled' into The Beyond.

Mic drop.

A few problems

1. The spiritual realm cannot be set in stone, otherwise Future sight would be accurate, additionally when two people are looking at the future it creates an endless array of changing possibilities therefore it cannot be predetermined as to what will happen.
2. The God Beyond will never be cannonized

Spoiler

Questioner

In Stormlight, Dalinar mentioned that <if he can die, he's no longer a god>, so to speak. And throughout the cosmere, gods died *inaudible*. Is there an omniscient, omnipotent, actual God in the cosmere?

Brandon Sanderson

Is there an omniscient, omnipotent God in the cosmere? Some people believe that there is. You guys laugh about this, but I don't mean it to be a laughing thing. There are certain questions I will not answer in the cosmere, specifically because it would too much undermine some of the characters' beliefs. And I want to treat characters respectfully. So whether there is life after you pass into the Beyond, and whether there is a God of gods, an omnipotent, as we would define "monotheistic God," are questions that I don't answer, and I let the characters deal with. Because if I answer that, then the character discussions about this are meaningless. Not really, but they kind of are. So there are a couple things I won't answer about the cosmere, because the characters don't have these answers.

Questioner

<Do you know the answer>?

Brandon Sanderson

I know the answer, yes.

Arcanum Unbounded release party (Nov. 22, 2016)