Quick Fix 59: Bachelor--Roshar edition!

[Experience he/him]

8 minutes ago, Archer said:

@The Unknown Novel, @Ashbringerwho're you guys voting for? Wanna join me on Experience? Take a stab at Mail for being out of sync with consensus? Look into Illwei because Aman isn't here to argue against it? Joking aside, those are the three I'd most like to exe. 

This reads quite weird to me. 

Is your only reason for voting me because I was on around rollover? And why would we just randomly vote on Mail without somewhat good reason? And why would we only now look into Illwei when someone won't fight against?

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

@The Unknown Novel, @Ashbringerwho're you guys voting for? Wanna join me on Experience? Take a stab at Mail for being out of sync with consensus? Look into Illwei because Aman isn't here to argue against it? Joking aside, those are the three I'd most like to exe. 

I really dislike Illwei, and if their elim, I would look at Exp and slightly Kas. I don't really remember Maili.

[---]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

@The Unknown Novel, @Ashbringerwho're you guys voting for? Wanna join me on Experience? Take a stab at Mail for being out of sync with consensus? Look into Illwei because Aman isn't here to argue against it? Joking aside, those are the three I'd most like to exe. 

Aman wasn't even defending me,,,,,,,,

Everything Archer posts feels like stereotypical openwolfing. 

Shading Aman when Aman went for Striker

Openly just being so...agendaful with the comments he made earlier

Just

Everything 

I can only entertain a V!Archer world for so long until someone shielding him decides that something is indeed wrong based on how the exes are going and they need to modify their worldview

[Experience he/him]

My vote is currently on Archer.

EDIT: If Archer flips village, that puts some shade on Illwei.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Experience

[Mailliw73 he/him]

1 hour ago, Experience said:

This reads quite weird to me. 

Is your only reason for voting me because I was on around rollover? And why would we just randomly vote on Mail without somewhat good reason? And why would we only now look into Illwei when someone won't fight against?

 

1 hour ago, The Unknown Novel said:

I really dislike Illwei, and if their elim, I would look at Exp and slightly Kas. I don't really remember Maili.

Woah both Exp’s post and TUA’s long post read super weird to me. Anyone else? Archer’s posts I’m on board with. 

[Experience he/him]

I...am so lost right now. Why does Mail's post sound like openwolfing to me. There would be no reason to do so wth. My brain is muddled from meds rn so I can't really do any great analysis, but something about Mail/Archer just aint sitting right with me. 

[Archer he/him]

14 minutes ago, Experience said:

EDIT: If Archer flips village, that puts some shade on Illwei.

Could you please explain your thought process there? Last cycle you said you were willing to vote Illwei, now you're voting with them in a way that pins blame on them when it backfires. It reads like you're distancing until someone calls your bluff. Your last post of the last cycle talked about your bad gut read on Illwei, where'd that go? And are there specifics attached, or are you too worried you might actually convince someone to follow you? 

16 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Everything Archer posts feels like stereotypical openwolfing. 

I don't stereotypically openwolf, when I did it in the LG I explicitly openwolfed. Entirely dissimilar. :P. Anyway, you know what a stale thread looks like, so swinging for me right now for trying to get some conversation going seems opportunistic. 

I entirely misplayed C1 if I was evil. Should have voted and I should have committed to a bus or a defense of Striker instead of doing the type of handwringing that doesn't persuade anyone. I think I look better off an evil flip that round than I would had we killed v!Striker, because I played it more like an elim who thought we'd mix than one with a teammate on the line. 

1 hour ago, Experience said:

This reads quite weird to me. 

Is your only reason for voting me because I was on around rollover? And why would we just randomly vote on Mail without somewhat good reason? And why would we only now look into Illwei when someone won't fight against?

Good questions! I figured people following along didn't need me to rehash the arguments but I'll reiterate why I'm sus of you specifically. 

Elims like being on near rollover. 

Late C1, you made a post that said you were confused. Then you ended up voting with Striker on Ash. I think you hadn't laid the groundwork to change your vote and you wanted to not have everyone bus and you wanted the possibility of a CW to exist so you kept it where you'd planned on the Ash CW. 

And now you're clearly keeping Illwei on hand as a tomorrow problem, but not actually getting around to voting for them. 

Howdy, Mailliw. I think TUN's is weird because they're entirely defensive. 

XP, same. I'm hard reading you and Illwei being obvious teammates. It'll be funny if I'm wrong, but it's the kinda play I'd make if I thought we could get a bad mix out of a lull cycle. 

[---]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

I don't stereotypically openwolf, when I did it in the LG I explicitly openwolfed. Entirely dissimilar. :P. Anyway, you know what a stale thread looks like, so swinging for me right now for trying to get some conversation going seems opportunistic. 

openwolfing isn't always a conscious choice, but a trackable record of having blatant agenda throughout their posts as well as an Elim point of view. yadda yadda useless commentary anyways next

A few fun facts while I work through some things

Matrim and Aman were both the 3rd highest poster the cycle they died, and Devo was the 4th with Ash in the 3rd position.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

1 hour ago, Experience said:

I...am so lost right now. Why does Mail's post sound like openwolfing to me. There would be no reason to do so wth. My brain is muddled from meds rn so I can't really do any great analysis, but something about Mail/Archer just aint sitting right with me. 

Maybe we mean different things by “openwolfing” but I take it to mean being extremely open about being an elim. I have no idea how that post could possibly convey me confessing to being an elim. I’ll grant that the tone is weird but that’s because I had just a couple seconds and wanted to get my thoughts out before I forgot. 

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Howdy, Mailliw. I think TUN's is weird because they're entirely defensive. 

I agree. There’ve only been minimal posts and then one huge one refuting everything said about them. I feel like that’s a pretty elim mentality, making a defense against every post someone makes with suspicions on you. There’s usually more of a mentality there to explain why all your decisions are rational since you’re more aware of it as an elim. 

[Experience he/him]

5 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Maybe we mean different things by “openwolfing” but I take it to mean being extremely open about being an elim. I have no idea how that post could possibly convey me confessing to being an elim. I’ll grant that the tone is weird but that’s because I had just a couple seconds and wanted to get my thoughts out before I forgot.

I feel like I may be tunneling on Archer and was kind of reading that as if Archer was elim which imo makes you look not so great. But I might be tunneling and idk. 

[---]

I'm gonna need someone to interact for me to get my thoughts out if someone would, but-

On 3/9/2022 at 8:29 PM, Archer said:

grr that's a villagery thing to admit. 

*When. :P.

The formality of red text was unnecessary, which is interesting. 

This is just the one post I keep coming back to about Archer. Just. This. 

[Experience he/him]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

I'm gonna need someone to interact for me to get my thoughts out if someone would, but-

I can try, though can't promise my idea will be any good.

[Ashbringer he/him]

I can try and engage, but my ideas on Archer are... slightly tainted by Striker.

Edit: hi Striker

Edited March 14, 2022 by Ashbringer

[---]

I meant just in general because I'm not in the mood to make a long coherent wallpost lol

But what do you mean your opinions are tainted by striker?

TUA, Kas, Bort, Orlok, Ash, Archer, Exp, Maill, Illwei

3 v 6 or 2 v 7

lylo is going to be hard here where votes aren't actually trackable.

Illwei
Kas

My problem is I legitimately can't get past here without taking big leaps of faith.

My immediate pool of people I'm looking in to is TUN, Exp, and Archer.

EDIT:

At this point I'm partially just willing to believe Ash is village. for the most part.
And it's mostly this post:

On 3/10/2022 at 2:47 AM, Ashbringer said:

I don't, really, because from my very Village point of view we came up with the idea independently. But other people seem to think I'm tied to Archer. Mostly Striker, somewhat Kas... maybe Aman? 

Where he talks about how "people seem to think he's tied to archer" and how he was so self aware of that in some previous posts, when the main person pushing that was supposedly Striker.
If Ash is an Elim it means that Archer/Ash/Striker was the team (which i honestly don't think is impossible but /shrug) and that all of them were absolutely full of TMI.
I don't see Ash reacting this strongly as an Elim to what would be a teammate saying that they would be suspicious if someone else flipped Elim.

EDIT EDIT:

And Archer, you can't say you played D1 poorly if you were an Elim simply because you didn't vote Striker. I fully believe Striker wasn't a lost cause, and if you also thought that then you would try and save him, which you halfheartedly did. And then at the end it would definitely be suspect if you just jumped on him at the end because where would your progression be? So instead continuing your "we probably don't hit an Elim D1" thing you had going all day as well as a "I'm not going to vote! hehe!" isn't a completely bizzare path for an Elim trying to find an alternate path there to take.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Illwei

[Ashbringer he/him]

Because Striker managed to drill into my mind that Archer's flip gives great insight into my alignment, and vice versa.

 

Who are we sure we don't want to kill? Kas and Bort are the only ones I can really think of as definite not-kill, at least now. (And [Insert-self-here], of course, but that's boring.)

@The Unknown Novel, why did you want to make a giant defense wallpost?

@Kasimir, @Orlok Tsubodai, you guys around?

TBH, I have not gotten many pings off of Exp at all. I'd be okay with TUN, Maill, or Archer.

[Kasimir he/him]

Ave atque vale, ThreadPMBro  We will finish what you started and find the remaining Elims!

Alright, checking back in from workday of hell.

• @Bort, you mentioned you had thoughts on Archer/Ash interactions. What are they? I scanned C3 and don't recall you saying anything about them, though I could be wrong.
   
• V!JNV puts a pin in my theory that the Elims were aggressively pushing Archer as the CW. I still think that makes the most sense, which means I'm now obligated to rethink <Ash, Illwei>. The alternative is an E!Archer world, which I'm still not really sold on. @Ashbringer, @Illwei, @Experience, I'm interested in why you guys seem to have E!Archer credences. Especially Illwei, since you mentioned last cycle you're largely committed to a V!Archer world.
   
• @The Unknown Novel's post on E!Illwei implicating me and Experience gives me bad gut. I can see that from EoC C3!Illwei on Experience, and I suppose my defense of Illwei, but from my point-of-view, reads like a potential teammate trying to set up a ML on me with their teammate. I've had that feeling with E!Archer and E!Araris before, but this is TUA (TUN now? Seriously why change your name mid-game -.-) so I am resigned to alarm bells and uncertainty.
   

• 3 hours ago, Illwei said:

  I can only entertain a V!Archer world for so long until someone shielding him decides that something is indeed wrong based on how the exes are going and they need to modify their worldview

  Look. I am indeed defending Archer, because I still think V!Archer makes the most sense - CW and all - but I am open to being persuaded. I'm well aware I can be mistaken.

• Similarly, @Archer, you've commented about Ash and Orlok being on your sus list, but also decline to go for Ash and Orlok. I get Orlok - I still cannot get over that EoC vote, but am declining to press the issue since he's currently on death row, so the filter may solve him for us, and IMO, should have at least one to two more catchable teammates.

• Like. Look guys. Both of you. Or all of you. The point is that we're still running with a Village here. If you want an exe, push for it! I am having to do credence revision because JNV's flip indicates that there's something wrong about my C3 EoC beliefs. While I think this points more to me needing <Ash, Illwei> revision, I'm happy to entertain arguments on why I should be revising other credences instead. There's something that just kind of pings me wrong about both of you going "I have suspect X but...nah don't wanna." C'mon man, I'm one guy - from the looks of the thread, there's at least three players willing to flip Archer here. That's a prima facie viable train. We're not at the point where we can't afford a non-consolidated wagon, and I think the trains a player chooses to form and join are still informative. Similarly, Archer, Maili was down for flipping Ash. As was Illwei C3. That gives you a potential three player train. I'm squinting a bit at the thread mood sensitivity here, because we're not at the point we need a robustly consensus train, and the sensitivity to thread mood/what other players think is...a bit alarming.

• Aman suggested I might be giving Maili too much of an apathy clear. I'm okay with relooking Maili - in absence of the apathy clear, I'm struggling to get a clear read off of him. I do expect more thread control out of E!Maili but I acknowledge that since Maili already said he can't afford to play this game with such a high activity level, I could be over-anchoring on Maili, so I am okay with revising on him. E!Maili openly saying he wanted to vote Experience C2 here becomes bold though, especially if you think the D2 Thaid/Ash train are both V/V...which okay, fine.

I dislike Exp's C1 EoC, and feel that Exp's last post from C3 sets off alarm bells of a player who knows JNV is going to flip Village and wants to soften his view, or hope someone talks him off onto the safe Illwei train instead. I'm going to put a vote on Experience for the moment, and do some vote pattern analysis during my next break.

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

@Kasimir, @Orlok Tsubodai, you guys around?

It busy workday my soul is dying bro  But yes I am trying.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Cycle 1:

Spoiler

Stricker (8): Kasimir, Matrim's dice, Devotary, Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei, Bort, Orlok

Ash (2): Experience, Stricker

Illwei (1): The Unknown Aon

JNV (1): Maillwi

Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood

Archer(1): JNV

Cycle 2:

Spoiler

Thaidakar (5): Kasimir, Devotary, Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei

Ash (2): JNV, Archer

Cycle 3:

Spoiler

JNV (5): Kasimir, Archer, Experience, Maillwi, Illwei

Unknown Aon (1): JNV

Maillw(1): Ash

Aman (1): Aman

Illwei(1): Bort

 

Okay hang on. The only players not dead who bothered to vote C2 are Kas, Ash, Illwei, Archer. Is there world where the Elims just decide not to vote C2? 

As Ash the Villager I know there's not an Elim in any danger that pile, but... still. Wow.

[---]

11 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Because Striker managed to drill into my mind that Archer's flip gives great insight into my alignment, and vice versa.

I don't see how this taints your view? What does this make you think Archer is then? What's your view on archer?

Because if Striker was saying that you'd look worse off of an E!Archer flip then all i see is an Elim setting you up for a misexe in the future. Yet you seem to think he's village?

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Like. Look guys. Both of you. Or all of you. The point is that we're still running with a Village here. If you want an exe, push for it

my point is I'm not wanting to waste effort on thinking about an E!Archer world if you guys are right on him. Which is why I'm putting it off.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Did Archer have a reason for not voting C1?

[Kasimir he/him]

26 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Okay hang on. The only players not dead who bothered to vote C2 are Kas, Ash, Illwei, Archer. Is there world where the Elims just decide not to vote C2? 

If D2 is V/V, which I'm not fully or necessarily sold on, then there are two possible worlds: the Elims voted, or they didn't. (So helpful, Kas!) In my view, V/V trains may sometimes have Elims hopping on to seem participatory but I generally expect low Elim train presence (if at all) because of low Elim investment, and prefer to look at side-trains. In this case though, there's just a main train and a side-train. Since there's no other trains, then yeah, we might expect to see Elims not-voting C2 as well. I can't work out the odds off-hand but that would absolutely be my suspect pool.

Maili lampshading that he intended to vote Exp C2 but didn't at the start of C3 would be massively gutsy if so. But then again, at that point, thread mood was still mixed on you, I think, apart from Aman and myself coming around slowly to V!Ash possibilities.

23 minutes ago, Illwei said:

my point is I'm not wanting to waste effort on thinking about an E!Archer world if you guys are right on him. Which is why I'm putting it off.

Are we though? You seem to have reason to think we aren't? From scanning, I can see it's largely from red flags in posts he made, and his interactions with Striker?

19 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Did Archer have a reason for not voting C1?

He mentioned it in one of the previous cycles - I think C3. He could have voted in self-pres since he was a CW candidate but didn't, so it was meant to signal he's Village.

Edited to add: @Ashbringer - To deepen the point, I think that my theory going into C3 was that Archer was the designated CW, and certainly Striker's behaviour seemed to reinforce it. I now think I have to look at three distinct possibilities:

• V!Archer was the designated CW. In which case, we have potential Elim involvement in pushing it: <Illwei, Ash.> I don't know how much I buy this as I still believe E!Illwei should've managed a better defense - same question I asked Aman.
   
• E!Archer was designated CW to look better off the flip. Again, don't know how much I buy this. It is striking the only Archer voter was JNV, a flipped Villager. But then, you'd think the Elims would at least put a bit more into making Archer look like he was under threat in the votes, since they clearly didn't expect a Striker landslide (defeats the point of a bus!) But maybe if they didn't expect a Striker landslide, they expected Archer to attract more votes. IDK.
   
• Variant of #1: V!Archer was the designated CW, but Striker was the only one pushing it. In that world, I'd argue the Elim roster is not especially strong in thread control, or active players (possibly due to scheduling issues.) That feels a lot like wishful thinking, but I'm also minded that in LG73, we did go up against a fairly passive Elim team. This would track if we think they had low vote participation C2. 

Edited to add 2: I'm currently struggling on how much weight to ascribe each possibility. Based off C3 EoC Kas thinking, I'd lean a bit more towards the third for now, and if so, would have to look at <Exp, TUA, Maili, Orlok.> Orlok italicised because of filter issues. But I'm not sure if that's much of a coherent team in there. Maili really because of that exchange with Aman about whether I'm apathy clearing Maili too fast.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Kasimir

[---]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Are we though? You seem to have reason to think we aren't? From scanning, I can see it's largely from red flags in posts he made, and his interactions with Striker?

It's practically everything he posts being a red flag to me. The one thing I will say is there is an Elim tell I have seen from Archer that I'm waiting to see if it is still valid that I haven't seen this game.

---

I'll have more time tomorrow morning to point out specifics if asked. but it boils down to the striker/Archer interactions the most, a side order of posts that feel fake, and a bowl of keeps shading me yet doesn't seem to want to actually interact with me/solve me.

I think the thing most throwing me off about Striker's reads and doing any thinking from there is that it's completely in RP. Like:

Archa: A woman with common sense in this group. I greatly agree with her thoughts on Nid, and would most likely look along with them at Nid for further inquiries about the murderers in the future. I would not think that someone who was about to commit murders would so whole-heartedly disagree with someone like Nid publicly.

Reading that and realizing it's about JNV should be blatant that I don't think Striker would have had the guts to mark a teammate as such highly village read. This whole time I thought JNV was nid and Archer was Aracha lol

 

[Bort he/him]

4 hours ago, Illwei said:

Matrim and Aman were both the 3rd highest poster the cycle they died, and Devo was the 4th with Ash in the 3rd position.

Who was first and second?

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

my point is I'm not wanting to waste effort on thinking about an E!Archer world if you guys are right on him. Which is why I'm putting it off.

So... My immediate read on this is that the elim team is Archer and Illwei. I think my vote will remain on Illwei today.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Bort, you mentioned you had thoughts on Archer/Ash interactions. What are they? I scanned C3 and don't recall you saying anything about them, though I could be wrong.

You're not wrong, I was just too busy yesterday. Too many dragons and not enough time! I'll try to get it up today, but I'm also at work, and have a game on tonight so no promises I'm afraid.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

Again, I want to apologise for not having had capacity yet. I’m committed to catching up today. I intend to finish a post by post of cycle one, and to at least have notes on the rest by the end of today.

[Bort he/him]

While I still don't have time to write out a long post explaining all my opinions, I did go back and look through the threads to see if anything stood out, and what I saw made me think I'm right to keep my suspicions on  Archer and Illwei.

When you're putting up a list of people you believe to be village, why would Illwei include Archer on that list? There is a lot of debate around who between Archer and Ash is elim, and just on Saturday, Illwei said she'd put Ash in a village read over Archer.

What changed?

Edit 2:

And what changed between then and now when she's pushing e!Archer again?

Edit:

Luna danced around on Bortington's beard, weaving flowers into it, much to his dismay. He had, however, painfully learned not to argue with his spren when she got into this kind of mood. Now she was talking about setting him up with some noble around here, one of the Kholin boys. Hmm... Maybe if he grew a beard, but right now, with that smooth chin, he just didn't look very tempting. Bortington scowled, wondering if Luna had already made "arrangements" with Adolin, since the lad did keep handing Bortington flowers. The same flowers now being woven into his beard.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Bort
Adding RP, edit 2: Adding another comment.

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

8 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

@The Unknown Novel, why did you want to make a giant defense wallpost?

Not defense. I was responding to stuff I saw when I read c3.