Mid-Range Game 56: Day of Reckoning

[Experience]

8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

 I was trying to invite you into a conversation.

xDDDDDDD

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm the one people were saying sounded desperate.

Yeah, be careful following popular opinion. It's often wrong, especially D1.

I mean, sure, but if I maybe made a mistake there you don't have to make the same one here. If you're not answering that, that's fine, I was just wondering if you would.

Well it could be worse. I could be wrong and you would die. so? that does not mean anything. but then again it could be wrong and we could lose a valuable asset to the village. hmm. I need to think about this more.

[---]

19 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm reformed now :P. 

Anyways I'm looking through old games, specifically MR50 right now, and I'm legitimately baffled at how people wanted to kill me that day 1. Mat was an Elim in that and wasn't voted on D1 iirc. only person i correctly suspected was sart, sadness. 

Only going to comment on Aman's point about confidence, I can talk more confidently personally about my Elim meta because I have had less games ofc so I can consolidate more, and as well it's pretty easy to replicate your Elim meta compared to village. My Village range is of course wider than my Elim range, and therefore easier to think about my Elim range more. That's my two cents on why that's NAI. 

Mat, if you were an elim, how high up would "pocketing Illwei" be on the agenda? I can say for sure that the first thing I do when I roll elim is mention that I think I can pocket you. not so much recently :P. 

Apologies if my tone is coming off harsh, throwing in a few ":P" to lighten the mood. 

1

Spoiler

Experience is Village
Araris is Village
Archer is Village
Mat is Village
Aman is Village

Stick is an Elim

2

Spoiler

Mat isn't teamed with Thaidikar
Danex isn't teamed with Thaidikar
Stick isn't teamed with Thaidikar
Aman is not teamed with Thaidikar
Experience isn't teamed with Araris
Experience isn't teamed with Archer
Ashbringer isn't teamed with Striker
Kasimir is not teamed with Ash
Kasimir is not teamed with Stick
Aman is not teamed with Illwei

3

Spoiler

Leaning village on ash for prodding striker when striker was viewing the thread. In reality it's pretty NAI but I like it nonetheless. 

Initial obligatory suspicion on Kas for trying to initiate "normalcy" in his play via "shuffle squat" with mat

Stick is an Elim because her posts, despite interacting with people, don't seem to have any sort of thoughts behind them. A kind of idle banter that isn't idle banter at first glance but still is. Speaking without saying anything.

Regardless of if Archer's point on Mat is true, (I think it's not), I think the perspective he used in explaining his bizarre read comes from a good perspective.

You can't read into Stink wanting PMs, but it makes me wonder. If Stink is an elim I'd guess about how many elims had checked in by then, because I would assume maybe a team of 5, which is people to talk to a bit.
Where did stink bust out that ISO from? since when does stink do anything but chill and vote people for voting him recently? 

I don't know why I didn't call this one earlier, but Mat is village. this is basically almost completely off of the post where he said "I want to look back and see how many of the IllweiTakes were right" or whatnot. I really like the nonchalance of how he said that and just. the casualness. Like "Oh illwei is making her reads trackable, let's see how accurate she really is" or something. 
I still want to think that Mat is village, but when you don't voice your paranoia and then people reinforce it it's hard to say no. I'm not going to be voting mat today but I'm not as opposed to a Mat exe with how he's treating the thread. 

The next person who mentions PMs unironically ends up on my kill list

I think it's a good look on Aman that he said he wanted to chill, and then pulls out a wall on Mat. Regardless of conclusion on mat or Mat's alignment, I think it's a good look as he wasn't recieving any sort of pressure in thread for it. 

Thaidikar's openness about his progression (little as it may be) is a good look imo, because he seems to not care much about the other people's opinions. His most recent post isn't as good of a look, it looks very forced, but his previous posts where he expressed other suspicions and said "I'll keep my vote on Archer for now" or whatnot? That felt very much like it came from a village perspective. 

Edited February 11, 2022 by Illwei

[Mat]

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Mat, if you were an elim, how high up would "pocketing Illwei" be on the agenda? I can say for sure that the first thing I do when I roll elim is mention that I think I can pocket you. not so much recently :P. 

From what I remember, I don't turn to pocketing first unless there's PMs, and I usually like to try newer players. You I'd PM because you'd probably find it weird if I didn't, and sure pocketing you would be very helpful but I'd probably hesitate to actively try to do it because I'd be nervous that you'd catch on.

9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Aman is not teamed with Illwei

:thonk:

9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Where did stink bust out that ISO from? since when does stink do anything but chill and vote people for voting him recently? 

I don't think this is AI at all, tbh. Playstyles aren't a set thing.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

8 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

If we're dealing with v!Archer, then the elims are probably picking apart your claim right now. So I suppose we should as well. The more I think about this the more I'm convinced that v!Archer does not gain much for the village from false-claiming this way, so you're either a 1.villager telling the truth or 2.an elim telling the truth or 3.an elim lying. In terms of usefulness of use, I'm not too sold on the second possibility because why would an elim talk to the dead? I have already confirmed with TJ that the elim team does not have any hidden secondary wincons/alternative ways to win other than reaching parity. Perhaps it would be useful if they wanna communicate with a dead teammate. Hm. Not impossible. And again, how useful really is this role to villagers anyway because the dead people can maybe just straight-up lie, as you said?

It can be useful for both villagers and elims to talk to dead people, especially in a blackout game. Someone who dies has a chance to spill all the information they know, which could be good or bad depending on Archer's alignment.

It would be risky for E!Archer to claim V!Epic if he didn't know whether V!Epics existed.

The only time Mat was D1'd recently looks to be QF57 as a villager (which did happen to be a game where every villager had a confirmed good role. I don't think role claims will be super helpful in determining alignment in this game unless there's something like a role scanner + all elims are Epics) when both elims voted for him. Harder to tell with that one since those were the only two votes but Mat did push back against the second one and mentioned that he was behaving differently than if he was an elim. He was also willing to die to ensure that somebody got exed.

Anagrams:

oncemum 1, 2, 3
harkaqueet 2, 8
labileturninivy 4, 12
interestediga 3, 4, 6

[STINK]

18 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Where did stink bust out that ISO from? since when does stink do anything but chill and vote people for voting him recently? 

Done it in a few games in the past. Usually when someone requests funnily enough now that I think about it O.o

Sadly despite all my work, there is still some game knowledge in my brain

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood]

23 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I'm reformed now :P. 

Anyways I'm looking through old games, specifically MR50 right now, and I'm legitimately baffled at how people wanted to kill me that day 1. Mat was an Elim in that and wasn't voted on D1 iirc. only person i correctly suspected was sart, sadness. 

Only going to comment on Aman's point about confidence, I can talk more confidently personally about my Elim meta because I have had less games ofc so I can consolidate more, and as well it's pretty easy to replicate your Elim meta compared to village. My Village range is of course wider than my Elim range, and therefore easier to think about my Elim range more. That's my two cents on why that's NAI. 

Mat, if you were an elim, how high up would "pocketing Illwei" be on the agenda? I can say for sure that the first thing I do when I roll elim is mention that I think I can pocket you. not so much recently :P. 

Apologies if my tone is coming off harsh, throwing in a few ":P" to lighten the mood. 

1

  Hide contents

Experience is Village
Araris is Village
Archer is Village
Mat is Village
Aman is Village

Stick is an Elim

2

  Hide contents

Mat isn't teamed with Thaidikar
Danex isn't teamed with Thaidikar
Stick isn't teamed with Thaidikar
Aman is not teamed with Thaidikar
Experience isn't teamed with Araris
Experience isn't teamed with Archer
Ashbringer isn't teamed with Striker
Kasimir is not teamed with Ash
Kasimir is not teamed with Stick
Aman is not teamed with Illwei

3

  Hide contents

Leaning village on ash for prodding striker when striker was viewing the thread. In reality it's pretty NAI but I like it nonetheless. 

Initial obligatory suspicion on Kas for trying to initiate "normalcy" in his play via "shuffle squat" with mat

Stick is an Elim because her posts, despite interacting with people, don't seem to have any sort of thoughts behind them. A kind of idle banter that isn't idle banter at first glance but still is. Speaking without saying anything.

Regardless of if Archer's point on Mat is true, (I think it's not), I think the perspective he used in explaining his bizarre read comes from a good perspective.

You can't read into Stink wanting PMs, but it makes me wonder. If Stink is an elim I'd guess about how many elims had checked in by then, because I would assume maybe a team of 5, which is people to talk to a bit.
Where did stink bust out that ISO from? since when does stink do anything but chill and vote people for voting him recently? 

I don't know why I didn't call this one earlier, but Mat is village. this is basically almost completely off of the post where he said "I want to look back and see how many of the IllweiTakes were right" or whatnot. I really like the nonchalance of how he said that and just. the casualness. Like "Oh illwei is making her reads trackable, let's see how accurate she really is" or something. 
I still want to think that Mat is village, but when you don't voice your paranoia and then people reinforce it it's hard to say no. I'm not going to be voting mat today but I'm not as opposed to a Mat exe with how he's treating the thread. 

The next person who mentions PMs unironically ends up on my kill list

I think it's a good look on Aman that he said he wanted to chill, and then pulls out a wall on Mat. Regardless of conclusion on mat or Mat's alignment, I think it's a good look as he wasn't recieving any sort of pressure in thread for it. 

Thaidikar's openness about his progression (little as it may be) is a good look imo, because he seems to not care much about the other people's opinions. His most recent post isn't as good of a look, it looks very forced, but his previous posts where he expressed other suspicions and said "I'll keep my vote on Archer for now" or whatnot? That felt very much like it came from a village perspective. 

By teamed do you mean someone would be village and theater person mentioned would be village?

[Amanuensis]

9 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

It can be useful for both villagers and elims to talk to dead people, especially in a blackout game. Someone who dies has a chance to spill all the information they know, which could be good or bad depending on Archer's alignment.

It would be risky for E!Archer to claim V!Epic if he didn't know whether V!Epics existed.

I'm glad you quoted this because I wanted to make a comment on the same paragraph, but forgot.

Quote

In terms of usefulness of use, I'm not too sold on the second possibility because why would an elim talk to the dead? I have already confirmed with TJ that the elim team does not have any hidden secondary wincons/alternative ways to win other than reaching parity. Perhaps it would be useful if they wanna communicate with a dead teammate. Hm. Not impossible. And again, how useful really is this role to villagers anyway because the dead people can maybe just straight-up lie, as you said?

@_Stick_

I'm very surprised how much you thought about this. If we assume Archer is an Elim claiming Village Epic, why would we assume anything he tells us about his role is accurate? In that scenario, it would make sense to fake claim a role that villagers would be wary of voting + a role that elims could believably "ignore" for more threatening ones. Something like a Medium, in fact, which could only be verified by an actual Medium, until enough turns go by without him providing evidence. Which again, is the same problem with an E!Epic claiming V!Epic in the first place. Fake claiming could have been a death sentence for E!Archer on two different fronts.

Edited February 11, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Ashbringer]

Teamed usually means Elim + Elim. Villagers diametrically oppose each other enough because they don’t know who each other are. Elims it’s rarer - or deliberate. 

But with Illwei idk.

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood]

7 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Teamed usually means Elim + Elim. Villagers diametrically oppose each other enough because they don’t know who each other are. Elims it’s rarer - or deliberate. 

But with Illwei idk.

that clears up a lot of things. 

Yeah Illwei seems a little suspicious but not very, they are worth further investigation.

[Mat]

Just now, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said:

that clears up a lot of things. 

Yeah Illwei seems a little suspicious but not very, they are worth further investigation.

Who do you trust rn?

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Who do you trust rn?

Well.... I don't trust you that's what I know.

[Experience]

Umm illwei plz explain that contradiction lol. Why is he your village read, but not the same team as you?

[Stick.]

22 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

It can be useful for both villagers and elims to talk to dead people, especially in a blackout game. Someone who dies has a chance to spill all the information they know, which could be good or bad depending on Archer's alignment.

True. It also depends on what the player in question thinks Archer's alignment is, based on which they can either decide to spill accurate info or simply mislead.

7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm very surprised how much you thought about this. If we assume Archer is an Elim claiming Village Epic, why would we assume anything he tells us about his role is accurate? In that scenario, it would make sense to fake claim a role that villagers would be wary of voting + a role that elims could believably "ignore" for more threatening ones. Something like a Medium, in fact, which could only be verified by an actual Medium, until enough turns go by without him providing evidence. Which again, is the same problem with an E!Epic claiming V!Epic in the first place. Fake claiming could have been a death sentence for E!Archer on two different fronts.

I know. I literally said these things . I feel like you didn't read my entire post?  I laid out 4 possibilities and concluded on v!archer for the moment because i feel like it's a move way too risky and also just unnecessary for an elim to make. 

Spoiler

Here's my thoughts again, c/p'd from my old post:

If we're dealing with v!Archer, then the elims are probably picking apart your claim right now. So I suppose we should as well. The more I think about this the more I'm convinced that v!Archer does not gain much for the village from false-claiming this way, so you're either a 1.villager telling the truth or 2.an elim telling the truth or 3.an elim lying. In terms of usefulness of use, I'm not too sold on the second possibility because why would an elim talk to the dead? I have already confirmed with TJ that the elim team does not have any hidden secondary wincons/alternative ways to win other than reaching parity. Perhaps it would be useful if they wanna communicate with a dead teammate. Hm. Not impossible. And again, how useful really is this role to villagers anyway because the dead people can maybe just straight-up lie, as you said? @|TJ| is the dead doc spoilered? Perhaps TJ just threw this role in just to troll. On to possibility 3 - this role is not strictly provable because dead people are dead. Uh, unless. (TJ, does this game have zombie mechanics? xD) so maybe e!Archer can safely get away with claiming this. I'm afraid I don't know Archer's playhistory well enough to know whether they are likely to pull a gambit like this as an elim. Thoughts, anyone? Also I didn't mention possibility 4 but I guess we can't discount it - Archer being a neutral. Any questions I asked TJ regarding neutrals were given a PAFO, so I guess it remains a possibility. For the moment I think I'm going with v!Archer, if only because it's a bold move to be making C1 specially when he wasn't in any danger/pressure to do so.

Anyway I be off to bed  

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said:

Well.... I don't trust you that's what I know.

I’m aware of that, but it also wasn’t the question  

[Amanuensis]

9 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

I know. I literally said these things . I feel like you didn't read my entire post?  I laid out 4 possibilities and concluded on v!archer for the moment because i feel like it's a move way too risky and also just unnecessary for an elim to make. 

Ah, whoops. I might not have finished the post then xD I only remember what I thought when reading that paragraph.

9 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Anyway I be off to bed  

Actually same. Goodnight everyone o/

[|TJ|]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Actually same. Goodnight everyone o/

Also same lmao xD

Final vote count for the day:

Matrim's Dice (4): Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Amanuensis, Thaidakar the Ghostblood
_Stick_ (3): Illwei, Matrim's Dice, Tani
Illwei (2): StrikerEZ, Archer
Experience (2): Kasimir, _Stick_
Araris Valerian (1): Experience
Ashbringer (1): Devotary of Spontaneity
Archer (1): Karnatheon

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood]

So is it just me who is not going to bed?

[---]

22 minutes ago, Experience said:

Umm illwei plz explain that contradiction lol. Why is he your village read, but not the same team as you?

Specifically meaning not e/e

You can't usually look at a set of interactions and decide those two people are or aren't villaging together unless there's something in their posts that would tell you it in isolation. villagers don't have TMI on who their teammates are. 

Again, another game where I'm kinda baffled at how people are finding me suspicious. 

Edited February 11, 2022 by Illwei

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Specifically meaning not e/e

You can't usually look at a set of interactions and decide those two people are or aren't villaging together unless there's something in their posts that would tell you it in isolation. villagers don't have TMI on who their teammates are. 

Again, another game where I'm kinda baffled at how people are finding me suspicious. 

*shrugs* you just seem suspicious.

[---]

I've been absolutely open with everything I'm thinking to a degree I'm not usually. I'm not inactive despite saying I thought I would be. I'm reading up on all the pages and not peacing out with "too many pages I'll be back." I've been looking for villagers and have identified why I think each of them are villagery and I even slightly pushed an Elim read and fully explained what about them was suspicious. I haven't openwolfed, I haven't spammed thread with useless banter, I haven't antagonized anyone or got in a big fight. 

It just astonishes me that there are people still find me suspicious after all that.

Is it because I'm not doing these things that people think something is wrong? because I'm supposedly not in my Village meta? If that were my village meta though then how would you be thinking I was an Elim in all my village games? 

Edited February 11, 2022 by Illwei

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood]

hmm. Don't worry Illwei, I am not going to change my vote to you. I still think Mat is the most suspicious on here at this cycle.

[---]

I'm not concerned, just confused. 

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood]

I understand. You just seem a little suspicious like the rest of us. All of us are a little suspicious so we are not giving you extra suspicion. or at least I am not.

[Araris Valerian]

37 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I've been absolutely open with everything I'm thinking to a degree I'm not usually. I'm not inactive despite saying I thought I would be. I'm reading up on all the pages and not peacing out with "too many pages I'll be back." I've been looking for villagers and have identified why I think each of them are villagery and I even slightly pushed an Elim read and fully explained what about them was suspicious. I haven't openwolfed, I haven't spammed thread with useless banter, I haven't antagonized anyone or got in a big fight. 

It just astonishes me that there are people still find me suspicious after all that.

Is it because I'm not doing these things that people think something is wrong? because I'm supposedly not in my Village meta? If that were my village meta though then how would you be thinking I was an Elim in all my village games? 

It's D1. Everyone is suspicious and deserves to die. Unless, you know, it's their first game or something.

Currently working on catching up, but I'm going to switch from Mat onto Experience for now. Might go back or do something else altogether, depending. The vote on Experience is basically prodding since his vote on me is currently a bit pointless (he didn't encourage anyone else to join and hasn't followed up), but I also don't mind a slightly larger pool for the exe this cycle.