Long Game 10: A Game of Shards

[Ashiok]

Yes and yes

Edit: not the RP PM

Edited February 3, 2015 by Ashiok

[Kipper]

Aonar,

Ruin and his Investee would have to be protected.

Edited February 3, 2015 by Snoopy

[Lord Pifferdoo]

I like this plan

Although it has to be a fully committed effort. Any holes and it could spell disaster for the innocent Sharders. 

[Aonar]

Both true, and both good points. However, Ruin's Investee only needs to be protected if he's publicly known. If they try to hit a random, non-Shard target, they're very unlikely to hit him. (Not impossible, I suppose, but highly unlikely.)

 

It will definitely have to be a committed effort. Anything less, and we'll be in a far worse place than we started.

[Clanky]

Possible problems with Aonars plan: 

-Odium could claim to be a different shard (maybe one that happens to be inactive which would really screw this plan up) which would require at least one more cycle to prove which ones the true Odium. 

-if we are protecting Odium it will leave ruin and preservation open to attack from odiums invested champion

since everyone knows who they are. 

-They can then put skeletals on Ruin

 

Thats the main ones i can think of right now. 

I like the boldness of the plan but i think it needs some refinement

 

Edit because i realized one of my statements was incorrect. 

Edited February 3, 2015 by Clanky

[Kipper]

Just want to say before I go any further that I am not opposed to this theory. I'm just trying to critique to improve.

With that said, how would Ruin go about picking an Investee that wasn't publicly known? I just want to hear your plan for that. Cultivation would likely have to be on board, and that could take time.

However, I think the biggest blow to your plan is simply finding Odium. Admittedly, this is my first time, so it's hard for me to get behind all this "I saw him lurking" hoodoo.

Edit: Can OCs be Bloodsealers as well? I was under the impression that only Hoid could have multiple roles.

Edit 2: Here's a quote from the Google Doc rules:

Investiture: Once per day, Ruin can invest in a Worldhopper. Once every day/night cycle, the invested player can target another player. During the day, a targeted player’s vote doesn’t count. During the night, a targeted player cannot use their ability. This does not stop a shard from investing.

Emphasis added

So Odium's Investee would still have a non-Shard kill, even if Ruin Ruined Odium.

Edited February 3, 2015 by Snoopy

[Metacognition]

People seem to be getting the wrong idea of what I'm asking of Ruin, so I'll clarify one last time while answering their questions and from there, I'll leave it up to Ruin to decide. Honestly, I'm a bit surprised at the dissent to the idea. I'm beginning to wonder if there's an ulterior motive behind it, especially since some of the complaints sound similarly.... Could just be me reading too much into it though or people being afraid to be responsible for an innocent's death; even one that isn't being helpful. 

 

(Blue open) What about those people who will be inactive for a few cycles but when they come back, IF they come back instead of being Ruined, they will be an active player? Some arguments should be made for the Shards using their powers either way so the Shards may pick and chose. Except Odium, of course,because we don't want to be Odiumed. (Blue close)
EDIT: Color 

 

If they come in and let people know that they're busy and that they plan to be back, then they're not inactive, are they? They're just busy. If someone comes in and lets everyone know that they're going to be busy, obviously, they shouldn't be the initial targets. That said, it's rare that someone that says that will be able to keep up with the twists and turns that happen in their absence anyways and this seems like a very specific circumstance. You wouldn't happen to know of someone doing exactly this via the Eliminator Doc, would you?

 

Uh... yes, but if we were assuming that the inactives weren't spiked, why would we waste lynches killing them?

 

This has nothing to do with the lynches. This is about Ruin's kill ability. The idea is to do this specifically so we don't have to use our lynches on inactives later on and can focus on finding the coonections and lies that lead us to Team Rayse. The chances of us hitting a Spiked are slim; this is true. But, this way, we don't have to worry about the inactives once/if the game gets close and, as stated already, the inactives aren't helping us at all. All they're doing is providing a place for the Spiked to hide between. 

 

First of all, I'm just going to say that I don't want any Shards shattered on the first round, so think carefully before voting.  Also, not posting for the first half of the Day is not inactivity; there is something called school.  If you lynch someone for inactivity, they have a low probability of being Spiked a Champion.  Look at the AG; none of the inactives there were Spiked.  Later on, there's less reason not to kill inactives.

 

I know that this isn't the most helpful post, but there's not much evidence yet.  I'll post tommorow.

 

The Day is 48 hours long. Half of the day is a full 24 hours, but even that isn't what I'm talking about. Ruin doesn't get their kill until the Night Turn, so that means that their target would have to have been inactive for over 48 hours before they would be a likely target. 

Also, this is not a strategy for the entire game. This is a way to actually use Ruin's ability early on when they'd likely just be twiddling their thumbs. As stated earlier, once Ruin has some information and can make better guesses, I encourage them to go after them rather than the inactives. 

 

Also, let's discuss past games for a minute, especially the AG. In the past, the Eliminators have consistently tried to find that sweet spot between posting too much and too little. Too much and they get put on people's radar, which is where they don't want to be. Too little and we might kill them just for being unhelpful as the game goes on. 

 

The idea with this plan is to encourage them to have to speak up more and thus giving them more opportunities to slip up. This happened in the AG, near the end of the game, when they couldn't continue to stick to the shadows as much. If you go back through the Dead Doc, there were multiple times in which people notices posts that would've been red flags for them if they were still in the game. I'm trying to accelerate that process before we have to lose almost half of our players. 

 

 

 

Look, I get why everyone doesn't want a lynch today and why people are uneasy with this idea. No one wants to accidentally kill an innocent. Thing is, it's going to happen. We don't have a scanner role and Team Rayse has two possible kills a night! If we sit back and try to wait to find only Rayse and his Champions, we're likely going to lose. Heck, there's a chance that we could lose a Shard tonight (but at least then it's not on us, right?). 

 

That said, I'll acquiesce to the group and withdraw my vote from The Second of the Sky and start coming up with other ideas. 

 

Investiture is going to be difficult. The Shards could accidentally invest in one of the Champs, so they're going to want to be very careful about doing so. The only Shard that I think really should hold off on investing would be Devotion. Unless they're fairly certain that the person they pick is not a Champ, then I think we want to have all options for future lynches on the table. Cultivation and Dominion are iffy, as we don't really want to give Team Rayse the ability to manipulate the vote (or to get people in mini PMs where they can be more easily manipulated), but if they do manipulate the vote, then Cultivation and Dominion would know who they are at least! 

 

So that's the last word I'll say on that idea and also some thoughts for going forward. 

[Clanky]

Also yes OC's can be bloodsealers or any other minor role because an OC isn't a role the same as Worldhopper isn't a role.

[Kipper]

@Aonar

Here's a quote from the Google Doc rules:

Investiture: Once per day, Ruin can invest in a Worldhopper. Once every day/night cycle, the invested player can target another player. During the day, a targeted player’s vote doesn’t count. During the night, a targeted player cannot use their ability. This does not stop a shard from investing.

Emphasis added

So Odium's Investee would still have a non-Shard kill, even if Ruin Ruined Odium.

@Meta

Do you want to have a lynch? If so, who are you suggesting?

[Aonar]

Snoopy:

Well, Endowment knows who every single Shard is. That narrows things down to eight people, each of whom have different, easily provable roles. Worst comes to worst, we chose one of the more unlikely/inactive Shards and roleblock them at random, forcing Odium to either not make a kill, or clear them for us.

 

The Investee not being publicly known would be tricky. Ruin would basically have to blindly trust someone, and hope. Of course, if things don't work out like they're supposed to, we'll have pegged a Champion, at least.

 

Clanky:

-Already pointed out in the plan. It's a gamble, and the longer we go without hitting Odium, the worse off we are.

-Odium's Invested Champion can't attack Shards, and after the Cycle immediately following the one where we get a lockdown on Ruin, they won't be able to attack, period.

-In this scenario, Ruin wouldn't be killing. He'd just be giving his Investiture.

 

Edit: Good catch, Snoopy. However, I still think the rewards outweigh the risks here, assuming things go to plan.

Edited February 3, 2015 by Aonar Faileas

[Lightsworn Panda]

Meta, I disagree with your reason for lynching someone today. Just because we're eventually going to lose someone doesn't necessarily mean we have to go gung ho and just lynch someone. If we minimalize our losses early, we'll be able to achieve a more favorable late game. The chances of hitting a Spiked on Day 1 is already small (1/5) and I think we've only managed that once in MR3.

I'll colour this post later when I can get on a PC

Edited February 3, 2015 by Gamma Fiend
Colored ;)

[Clanky]

If we don't use ruins kills then all kills will still be by vote. Voting will not be changed by this as all of Odiums champions would still get to vote. Maybe I'm missing this but I don't see how this would help us to catch OCs with a greater probability via the lynch vote. We would also ensure that Odiums invested never accidentally hits a shard wasting the kill. 

 

EDIT accidently said ruin when i meant odium

Edited February 3, 2015 by Clanky

[Alvron]

Bold = mine

The Day is 48 hours long. Half of the day is a full 24 hours, but even that isn't what I'm talking about. Ruin doesn't get their kill until the Night Turn, so that means that their target would have to have been inactive for over 48 hours before they would be a likely target. 

Also, this is not a strategy for the entire game. This is a way to actually use Ruin's ability early on when they'd likely just be twiddling their thumbs. As stated earlier, once Ruin has some information and can make better guesses, I encourage them to go after them rather than the inactives. 

Not quiet Meta.  Ruin can choose to attack someone during the day cycle or night.  For what it's worth, I am in favor of killing any inactives we have.

 

Quoted from Main post.

 

Order of Actions:

Day:

Devotion's Worldhopper is announced

Endowment makes a new Shard.

Normal Votes

Day Investments (Odium/Honour/Endowment/Ruin)

Dominion Targets

Ruin’s Kill

Both Devotion abilities

Dominions Vote Change

Ruin’s Vote Cancel

Lynch

 

Night:

Endowment makes a new Shard

Night Investments (Dominion, Cultivation, Preservation, Devotion)

Dominion targets.

Lashings

Ruin's kill

Devotion targets

Ruin's action cancel

Odium/Champion kill

 

 

I'm not 100% positive but it looks like we would need Ruin to kill someone if we want them to invest another with their roleblocking.  It's possible that they could invest without using thier Shard abilities but the rules post isn't clear.

The Shard must use their Invest Ability the same cycle they use their Shardic ability.

Can you clear this up Joe.  Can a Shard invest in someone without using their other ability or do they have to use both if they want to use one? or is it only that they need to invest if they want to use their main power?

[Clanky]

Do sit seem like I'm too opposed to Aonars idea? I'm not trying to say it's bad I just want to promote discussion before we put all our eggs in one basket.

EDIT for spelling

Edited February 3, 2015 by Clanky

[Kipper]

I agree with that plan in theory. My objections are on the table and have been answered. My final hesitation is that of cooperation and trust. Before anything can work, we must be sure that Endowment, Cultivation, and everyone else involved has the guts to come forward and follow through.

Speed is obviously going to be of the essence, as we have two killls per night.

Other Ramblings:

Joe, can a Shard say, "I want to Invest in Hoid," or do they have to name a specific player?

Also, what happens if Hoid picks up Endowment after it dies?

If Hoid is Invested by Honor, can he Lash himself?

If Hoid came forward and Honor immediately Invested him and Lashed him, Hoid would be effectively invincible. What then?

[Clanky]

I thought that investments went through PM directly to joe?

[Eolhondras]

I hate to participate in the critiquing of an interesting idea, but for my mind, the flaws are to numerous for Aonar's plan to be a viable option. For one, we would only cut the eliminator kills by one. If it was a total fix, I might find it more agreeable, but this way you've essentially capped yourself at 5 cycles, (-1 for Odium/-2 for Honour saves) perhaps 6 or 7 with allied lifeless, until most of our safe roles are dead. It also means that Hoid essentially becomes useless unless by some fluke he/she's invested by a couple of shards before they inevitably die. In my head Hoid is one of our most valuable roles, and I don't want to throw him out just yet.

 

Then we get into the fact that the numbers above are based on the assumption that Odium is pinned the same day we begin the plan. What happens, for example, we have two inactives. Then the champions aren't just going to sit quietly and watch so two Endowments come forward with different lists of shards. Then 12 people come forward as shards. Basically what I'm saying is sure, you can troubleshoot and eventually get things down to who is who through role proving and so on, but how much time will be wasted in the process? Time=Kills.

 

Like I said, I'm all for original ideas, but this one just seems like a bit of a hail mary.

 

Edit: Erghbbbbbb

Edited February 3, 2015 by Eolhondras

[A Joe in the Bush]

Investments go directly in the Pm to me.

The Shard has to name a player, not a role.

When Endowment dies, it goes to a random Worldhopper.

Hoid is not a Worldhopper.

Shards can Invest, but do not need to use their abilities to do so. Otherwise they miss one cycle and completely lose their role.

Ruin gets one kill per cycle.

Hoid, hm. Well it's still the Investiture of that shard, and all the others he's bound by the same restrictions, other than keeping the power for the whole game, so No. Hoid cannot lash himself.

[Mckeedee123]

Is Endowment's list of Shards updated every cycle? Or is it just a one-time thing at the beginning of the game?

[A Joe in the Bush]

One time thing at the beginning of the Game.

 

Also, I didn't put this in the OP, since I thought it was standard across the board, but a Person needs at least two votes to be lynched. If there's a tie. Nothing happens. Unless it's past round 30. Then they'll both die.

[Clanky]

I just thought of a reason one of my arguments from earlier is invalid. If Odium claims to be an inactive shard it would only take two cycles for those shards to be given to different worldhoppers (if Odium tries to use his personal kill we could know sooner, to prevent an Odium killl on Ruin he would assuredly have to remain protected. We could also use a Bloodsealer to put skeletals on the last two shards to come forward since this is most likely who odium would be.) Once the shards have been repositioned Odium would quickly become known with those two only needing to prove they are the missing shards. Then the plan could go forwards as planned right?

 

One other problem is that if Ruin is one of the inactives then this plan will cause lots of people (and shards) to die before ruin is repositioned. It absolutely needs to be known that Ruin is active before this plan goes through.

 

I don't know if any of what I'm saying is even right. Please correct me if I'm completely off base. 

[Clanky]

I hate to participate in the critiquing of an interesting idea, but for my mind, the flaws are to numerous for Aonar's plan to be a viable option. For one, we would only cut the eliminator kills by one. If it was a total fix, I might find it more agreeable, but this way you've essentially capped yourself at 5 cycles, (-1 for Odium/-2 for Honour saves) perhaps 6 or 7 with allied lifeless, until most of our safe roles are dead. It also means that Hoid essentially becomes useless unless by some fluke he/she's invested by a couple of shards before they inevitably die. In my head Hoid is one of our most valuable roles, and I don't want to throw him out just yet.

 

Then we get into the fact that the numbers above are based on the assumption that Odium is pinned the same day we begin the plan. What happens, for example, we have two inactives. Then the champions aren't just going to sit quietly and watch so two Endowments come forward with different lists of shards. Then 12 people come forward as shards. Basically what I'm saying is sure, you can troubleshoot and eventually get things down to who is who through role proving and so on, but how much time will be wasted in the process? Time=Kills.

 

Like I said, I'm all for original ideas, but this one just seems like a bit of a hail mary.

 

Edit: Erghbbbbbb

 

If all the Eliminators come out as shards then we just need an awakener to prove that one of the shards is lying. Once the lie has been shown everyone on the false Endowments would be either Champions of Odium or actual Shards that are on both lists. That strategy by the eliminators could easily expose them all. But also we would have to ensure that the Awakener is who they say they are and not lying. I'm just getting so confused now! Am I missing something?

[vineyarddawg]

This is my first ever game, so please don't shoot the messenger if this sounds horribly naïve, but "throwing our cards on the table" kind of seems like cheating to me. Well, not cheating, per se, but doesn't it go against the spirit of the game?  

 

I mean, if we do Aonar's plan, basically every shard becomes redundant except for Ruin and Endowment, right?  (And Odium, of course.)  So why do we have all these shards and this wonderfully complex system?  And since we would be preventing Odium from perma-shattering any shards, you basically just pick off the bad guys one by one shooting-gallery-style.  It just doesn't seem like the "right way to play" to me.  I guess what I'm saying is that it looks like it would work, but I don't like how we would get there.

[Kipper]

Hoid, hm. Well it's still the Investiture of that shard, and all the others he's bound by the same restrictions, other than keeping the power for the whole game, so No. Hoid cannot lash himself.

But he "gains a copy" of Honor's ability, and Honor can Lash himself.

[A Joe in the Bush]

No, he gains a copy of their investee's ability. He doesn't get Ruin's kill, he get's Ruin's Roleblock.