Jo and the Bush all/any Posted February 5, 2015 Author Posted February 5, 2015 Finally got home from Mutual. Writeup might be delayed do to lots of last minute order changes. 1
Jo and the Bush all/any Posted February 5, 2015 Author Posted February 5, 2015 Day 2: Red Hat, Once White. Satrams banged the cup down on the bar. He was three cups in and wasn’t planning on stopping any time soon. There was nothing else he could do stop Odium except stay out of the way of those who could, so why not do so in comfort? He looked away from his drinks, trying to examine the room and its occupants. Lots of people were in various stages of Inebriation around the bar. Like the White haired man who kept winking at him, or the Tall Rectangle person in the corner, or the guy with Red smoke falling from his hands. None of them were looking at him, so he went back to looking at his drink. No, that’s not right. The white haired fellow was looking, right? He turned back, but no one was there. Had he ever been there? He needed to stop drinking. He pulled out his purse and dropped it on the bar, and stumbled away, grabbing that white hat he had woken up in. About half way across the room, he tripped over the floor, and fell on his face. Something landed on his shoulder, and pulled him up. “Hey fiend, you need some help getting home?” Satrams turned his blurry vision over to face the man. It turned out to be the man with the smoky hands. “Uh, sure. Gotta get back home, yeah.” It felt rather hard to talk. How much had he drunk anyway? Surely it wasn’t enough to impair him this much? “Here, just lean on me.” The smoky man put his arm around his Shoulders, and half helped, half carried him out the door. He starting walking down towards the docks, still carrying Satrams. “No, it’s the, the other way. I live, that way.” He pointed in what was probably the right direction. He’d only had what, three drinks? What colour had they been? The smoky man ignore Satrams pointing, and instead turned again, this time into an alleyway. Now Satrams was certain, there was no way he was drunk, but then, what- Red Smoke. Odium’s Champion! He panicked, trying to get away. the Man simply laughed. “Figured it out huh? A bit too late if you ask me.” He slammed him into the wall, and looked into his eyes. “Don’t worry man, you’ll be with your friends soon enough.” He pulled a curved Dagger out of somewhere, and rammed it into his belly. The Mercenary gasped, as he fell to his knees. His hat fell off into a pool of his own blood. His arms couldn’t squeeze the wound tight enough. He gasped once more, then slumped over. _________________________________________________________________ Peng glared around the room at his so called colleagues. None of them had stood up for him when the Shin tried to kill him. None of them cared about him. He would be lucky if he lasted tomorrow. Storms, it would take a Miracle for him to survive. “Peng.” He stiffened. When he turned around, there was no one where the voice had come from. “I believe you Peng.” The voice seemed to be coming from everywhere at once, though no one else was reacting to it. “Here, take this. You’ll need it tomorrow.” Abruptly, everything felt warm. His back no longer ached, his mind felt awake, he could see much clearer in the darkened room. Wait, the room wasn’t dark anymore. He looked down at himself, and was surprised to see himself Glow. “We must all be completely Devoted to stopping Odium, Peng. Forgive them, and move on. We have a job to do.” Close to tears, he looked up at the ceiling, imagining the starry night outside. “Thank you, Devotion.” Satrams died! He was a Normal Worldhopper. JasonPenguin is immune to be lynched this cycle. Day 2 Begins. It will end at 10:00pm PST on Friday the 6th. 8
Jo and the Bush all/any Posted February 5, 2015 Author Posted February 5, 2015 Alright. Writeup is live. Sorry for the wait. 3
Jo and the Bush all/any Posted February 5, 2015 Author Posted February 5, 2015 All PM's have been sent.
Lord Pifferdoo he/him Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 I mean, it sucks that Satrams is dead, but since he was vanilla, no big loss?
ostrichofevil he/him Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 Braize was a rather dismal place for a picnic. The sunset—the time was different from on Roshar—was a dark grey, as was most everything else on the planet. There were gray trees, gray soil, and a grey sky. Lady Ostrisce would never have come here if she didn't have a purpose: to find out how Odium had escaped. She was determined to find out; if she did, then maybe they could trap him again. All she and her followers knew was that Rayse had originally been trapped by Tanavast, who had then been killed by Odium. She had several different guesses at how to trap him. The first was to Shatter him, then trap the Splinters. If they could kill Rayse, this would be the easiest. Otherwise, it would be extremely hard. This is turning into a true disaster, Ostrisce thought. She and the other Worldhoppers would have to be very careful about who to lynch today. Ostrisce did not believe in the killing of inactive Worldhoppers, but there would eventually come a time when she would do anything to destroy Odium and his Champions.
twelfthrootoftwo Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 (edited) So Satrams was a normal Worldhopper, which means he was killed by an OC, not Odium. There was no mention of another attack in the writeup. Given protections are revealed, as are OCs hitting Shards, what about a Shard-shatter hitting a Worldhopper? If it would have been revealed, we know Satrams was double-tapped. Any Witness reports? We have enough protective roles to ensure you're not hit. (If no-one comes forward, can we conclude that if there is a Witness, they're an OC looking for Ruin/Bloodsealers?) Anyway, we want to use this opportunity. Devotion has, intentionally or not, put the easiest lynch target out of our reach - which, at this stage of the game, is a good thing! Now we'll need to have a proper conversation. First off, I'd like to ask Cognition to clarify his vote for Alv at the beginning of last cycle. Yes, first cycle reasoning is always shoddy. But you've traditionally opposed the idea of poke votes, and yet You humans always run when you should pause and pause when you should act! Rayse is far too clever for indecisiveness. That is why The Second Sky has attracted my attention. ...I have trouble reading this as anything other than poking Alv into saying something. So is there a deeper meaning? I'm surprised at the amount of information Gerald (and Winter, to a lesser extent) revealed during the night. It's probable he was flustered by Meta's comment at the end of the day, a scenario that seems more likely for a villager (since I would expect an OC to at least try getting a response from their doc-mates). Or it may have been a deliberate effort to bait attention. (Too tired to think through possibilities right now.) Edit: formatting Edited February 5, 2015 by twelfthrootoftwo
Guest Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 (edited) Why was Peng a suspect in the first place? @twelfth I don't think we should assume that an OC is a witness if no one comes forward. An OC, for example, could come forward and claim to be a Witness, then implicate a Shard. Then someone protects him and we lynch a Shard. Knowing that, should we believe a "Witness" if they came forward now? Edited February 5, 2015 by Snoopy
Feligon he/him Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 I've been a little quiet lately because of IRL reasons, but one thing that I did pick up on, although its a minor things, is what if Peng is not the Lifeless operator? If both he and the operator are OCs, then, just to be safe, the operator could have put the lifeless on Peng. Now, I would like to emphasize that I personally don't think this is a very likely possibility, but nobody had brought it up, and I didn't really see much discussion about Peng but more so around Cultivation. This is more of something I would like to make a note of as a slight bump up on my suspicion list. so, Araris Valerian has a good point. We have about a 1/29 chance to lynch a lifeless operator on the first round (could happen, but not likely). So he has to be in league with some powerful people, either good or bad. I figure he has a 1/7-ish chance of being an oc, but Cultivation's save makes me think that he's up with our powerful allies. I'm just suspicious right now.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 I would like to point out, on the subject of Satrams being just vanilla, that if all of the vanilla worldhoppers die, or even most of them, then for the shards to be able to use their powers they would have to invest in an OC. Its quite possible that this has happened already, although we haven't really gotten much indication either way. So we can't just bank on all of the shards surviving until the end and having a face-off against Odium. I really don't know who to vote for, the only person I could think about was Peng, so I'll try to look back through day 1 and the Scadrial PM and see what is up in those, then give my vote a little later today.
Guest Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 I'm trying to understand why Peng was a suspect.
Clanky he/him Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 Did anyone move between worlds last night or did everyone stick with the world freeze?
vineyarddawg Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 (edited) Did anyone move between worlds last night or did everyone stick with the world freeze? Nobody moved on Roshar. EDIT: Hmm... since you're already on Roshar, I guess you know that. :-) Edited February 5, 2015 by vineyarddawg
Guest Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 I'm trying to understand why Peng was a suspect.I still want to know this...And no one moved on Scadrial.
Clanky he/him Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 so, Araris Valerian has a good point. We have about a 1/29 chance to lynch a lifeless operator on the first round (could happen, but not likely). So he has to be in league with some powerful people, either good or bad. I figure he has a 1/7-ish chance of being an oc, but Cultivation's save makes me think that he's up with our powerful allies. I'm just suspicious right now. Joe said there could be more than one of the minor roles. So the 1/29 odds aren't really right. He also doesn't necessarily have to be in league with powerful people because of that. Anyone can be a lifeless operator, it could've been that it was him or that another lifeless operator saw he had a vote on him and didn't think he was on team odium. Also it was Devotion who put a save on him and Cultivation tried to get him lynched.
Lord Pifferdoo he/him Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 No-one moved on my planet. Didn't we all agree to a freeze?
Clanky he/him Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 No-one moved on my planet. Didn't we all agree to a freeze? It seemed like that was the decision but I just wanted to ensure it happened.
Guest Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 Joe, can you leave the topics for the various days and nights up, while still locking them? It's kind of frustrating to open a notification or search back through a previous day, only to find that the topic has been bundled up.
Metacognition he/him Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 First off, I'd like to ask Cognition to clarify his vote for Alv at the beginning of last cycle. Yes, first cycle reasoning is always shoddy. But you've traditionally opposed the idea of poke votes, and yet ...I have trouble reading this as anything other than poking Alv into saying something. So is there a deeper meaning? It's wasn't a poke vote. I meant to leave my vote exactly where it was, but everyone wanted a no lynch, so I bowed to the will of the group. During the first cycle, you can't help but pick someone out semi-randomly and just see what happens. What I don't like about poke votes is exactly how easy it has become for people to shrug off the early votes. Most people only leave them on someone until that person speaks up. That does us no good, as it doesn't tell us anything. For example: Joe votes for Gamma. Gamma posts "I'm here." and that's it. Joe removes his vote from Gamma. That doesn't tell us anything other than that Gamma isn't going inactive. Those kind of poke votes don't do us any good. The idea behind voting is to make the other person fear that they might actually get lynched and see how they try to defend themselves and who all comes to their defense. That doesn't happen if you're going to remove your vote just because they posted. In other words, because no one wanted a lynch on the first day, the votes lost their bite. Preferably what you'd want is a bunch of votes being thrown about on the first day (and most days in fact) with every intention of lynching someone. Then you see who might be trying to defend themselves just a little too hard or who has other people that seem to be sticking up for them. The end result though is that someone does wind up getting lynched. This is what separates poke votes from other votes. The first day votes have lost their intent and that's why lynches on the first day are so random. They don't have to be, but everyone being unwilling to lynch on the first day is what makes them that way. I'm going to go back through the first cycle later tonight to see if I can't pick up any clues, but for now, I remember being suspicious of Gamma, more so after we only had the one kill. We know Rayse was active enough to invest in one of their Champs, but they didn't kill last night. As such, there's a good chance that they're not as active and that they missed their chance to put in the order. The Witness doesn't have a very good shot at actually targeting the person making the kill (about a 2/29 chance), so having Ati hold off very well could have been to protect Rayse from getting shot. Besides, lets say the Witness does find Ati instead of Rayse or a Champ. That's not necessarily a bad thing. We'd have confirmation of Ati and that the Witness is telling the truth and could likely be trusted.
Jo and the Bush all/any Posted February 5, 2015 Author Posted February 5, 2015 Joe, can you leave the topics for the various days and nights up, while still locking them? It's kind of frustrating to open a notification or search back through a previous day, only to find that the topic has been bundled up. Meta does that stuff. You'll have to talk to him about it.
Guest Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 (edited) @Meta Your comments about who the Witness finds (Ruin, for example) only hold true if the person who speaks up as the Witness actually *is* the witness. We have no way of proving Witness identity. Edit: Admittedly, a Witness deception on the part of the OCs would only work for one cycle (or until the person the OC implicated got lynched), but it could still be a worth-while sacrifice for them, especially if they manage to Shatter Cultivation or Ruin. Regardless of whether the Witness is a well thought out deception or the real deal, our only proof of the Witness's identity is by lynching the one they implicate. Edited February 5, 2015 by Snoopy
vineyarddawg Posted February 5, 2015 Posted February 5, 2015 Are you sure that's now the witness works, Meta? The Expanded Rules doc says: Witness: Once per night you may choose to learn the identity of a random killer. They also learn your identity. That makes it sound to me like if the Witness chooses to activate their power and there's a kill that night, they will learn the identity of one of the killers at random. If there's only 1 kill, the witness finds out who the killer is. If there's 2+ kills, you get one of the killer's names at random. And if there's no kills, you find out nothing. Is that how it works, Joe? And if there are multiple kills, does the witness find out who the killer killed, or just the killer's name?
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