Long Game 69: The Politics of the Passions

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36 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

And now we know the PM probably did not contain an offer. Nice job, Elkanah.

Elk was roleblocked by TJ? so he couldn't have used Planning. He also said he got coercion (if we believe him) anyways :P. The only reason I see for him to lie about coercion is if he and TJ are Elims together, which I mean, I don't see really. 
This is why I like getting rid of chaotic players

Anyways- 
I don't want to make the same mistake I made last game by not keeping on Vapor D2, but I also- Idk. I don't want to...tunnel? is that the correct use? because all I have is her D1 stuff. I mean, maybe you could say that lotus putting the vote on Mist gave Vapor an opportunity to save themselves, so. Idk I don't really see that unless I think hard enough, but maybe I'm just not thinking hard enough. I honestly still don't get why anyone voted on Mist in the first place. Besides Sart who was, I think, a vote to get Mist to vote.
 

Edited September 2, 2020 by Illwei

[Mat]

8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I don't want to make the same mistake I made last game by not keeping on Vapor D2, but I also- Idk. I don't want to...tunnel? is that the correct use? because all I have is her D1 stuff. I mean, maybe you could say that lotus putting the vote on Mist gave Vapor an opportunity to save themselves, so. Idk I don't really see that unless I think hard enough, but maybe I'm just not thinking hard enough. I honestly still don't get why anyone voted on Mist in the first place. Besides Sart who was, I think, a vote to get Mist to vote.

This was also around what my thoughts were, but I also noticed that Vapor has seemed really defensive so far this game, I would say more than usual. So I'd be fine with her lynch, seeing how it went, and I'll probably switch to her depending on Lotus's response. TJ is correct in that Vapor will probably provide more info on Lotus than Lotus will on Vapor.

[+Lotus]

I’d be ok with lynching vapor, but considering how little time I had yesterday to look at anything SE related, I’m also totally good lynching myself.

Will respond more once I get home and take a shower.

[Sart]

Well, after lynching an innocent, but also getting cleared from a scan, I think this song is appropriate.

Spoiler

 

I know several people have expressed suspicion of Vapor. However, I'm drawn to Elandera's last post.

Quote

Hmm. That was phrased poorly (my initial statement, not yours). It wasn't really that it was the wrong name, but that I didn't mean to vote Matrim because of my earlier thinking. Let's see if I can recall my logic there. 

My options were Vapor, Mist, Mint, Kynedath, Matrim, and Sart.

I knew I didn't want to vote Vapor or Kynedath. I saw the reasoning and didn't really agree. I'd just removed my vote from Mint since she'd arrived. I didn't have any strong feelings one way or the other about Mist and Sart, and hadn't remembered seeing any reasoning for either. 

In the moment, that left me with Matrim, but I'd forgotten earlier that I'd specifically said I didn't want to lynch someone that active (those thought processes are difficult for me to remember while I'm at work and have a lot of other things distracting me). 

That ended with me placing and then removing the vote. I didn't vote on anyone because someone else tied it and I didn't have any particular motivation or reason to change it.

Sorry about the confusion. Again, I tend to have less logical progressions of thought while at work, and I type what comes to mind first rather than what's necessarily accurate. 

While confirmed good does not equal confirmed right, I wonder if the Elims specifically targeted Elandera in order to get the Vapor lynch to go through this cycle. I'm not sure what to make of Lotus's self vote. I've seen several villagers do it in the Long Games, but I haven't seen Elims doing it recently. Obviously, it only takes one Elim voting on themselves for the pattern to be ruined, but for right now, I'm inclined to trust them.

I'm going to put a vote on Pyro. They've been active in the thread, but all they've posted is one sentence at a time. It seems like they're lurking.

[Frozen Mint]

16 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Since roles are not permanent in the game, I intend to reveal my actions for each Night in the following Day in the interest of transparency to provide more info.

This is a great idea and I'll be stealing it too.  I received the Passion of Connection and used it to create a PM. I'd rather not reveal who's in the PM though, since if we end up with some sort of PM network this game, I don't want the elims to be too sure about it.

So I did an analysis of all the passions:

Passion of survival
All actions targeting you that night will be switched to a player of your choice
This isn't a helpful action for the village, unless you think you're a likely target for the elim kill and have a strong suspicion to redirect to. Possible actions to target another player are roleblock, protect, scan, kill, and coerce. This passion is likely to redirect actions to a villager and/or redirect actions of a villager, so we end up working against each other instead of with each other. Potentially useful later in the game. Basically not a great action for the village unless someone has a specific reason to use it.

@Zillah Are players notified if their actions are redirected?

Passion of connection
Create one PM between any two players
Originally I was going to say that I'm not really sure how PMs are useful to the village in this game since there are no roles or any reason for villagers to keep information a secret from the thread, so this action is more useful to elims. However, I've since realized that PM's can be a useful way to coordinate actions with people you trust. For example, you might not want to announce who you're roleblocking to the thread because the elims will switch who submits the kill but you could share it in PMs if both you and the other person are roleblocking and don't want to hit the same person. Risky of course, but we'll see how this plays out.

If anyone wants a PM with someone, consider announcing it in the thread. Someone who's not really interested in their passion of connection might help you out. I think it was Mist (?) who did that last cycle.

Passion of empathy
During one of the two following day cycles you may use this and one vote will be removed from your lynch total
Hm. Vote manipulation. I feel like if a villager uses this to save themselves, it'll probably drag on their lynch discussion longer. Because then there'll be discussion on whether we should try lynching them again. It gives the elims more time. If a villager uses this passion to save themselves, I won't hold it against them. But it's not great for the village overall unless an elim dies after they use it. If by saving themselves, an elim is lynched instead, great! If instead an elim is killed that night... well, we might have clues for better leads then. So long story short, this action has the potential to be useful I suppose but for the most part, I'd say it's more helpful for the elims.

Passion of protection
Choose one player to protect from all attacks this night cycle, not including yourself
Great for pretty much whoever who gets it.

Passion of teamwork
Choose a player. You learn who targeted that player during this night cycle
Excellent action for the village, a chance to find a killer. Elims can't get much use from this since the information they get tells them pretty much nothing about who will use what action next.

Passion of sabotage
Can roleblock one player
Hm. Also potentially useful to find a killer. Also might deprive the village of helpful information, depending on what gets blocked. Standard roleblock stuff basically. Not a bad action.

Passion of logic
Your vote counts as two votes the next day cycle
If it affects who gets lynched, it could kill the lynch discussion in the next cycle (we all just vote on the person who was "saved" but should've died). Unless the person who dies is an elim. Similar pros and cons to the other vote manipulation, passion of empathy.

Passion of planning
Can send an anonymous message to any single player, and gets two passions next cycle, however only one may be used
@Zillah Are you allowed to state who you are or otherwise claim an identity in this message? If so this could be a... slightly useful action. Like a PM but powered way down.

Passion of research
Learn the alignment of a player of your choice
Best action for the village. Useless to elims.

Passion of narcotics
You will receive and use a random passion (if the passion requires one or more targets, the targets will be chosen randomly as well)
C H A O S

Passion of coercion
Force any one player to receive their next action from the table of your choosing
Pretty much an elim only move.

Passion of violence
Can attack one player and remove them from the game
Mostly useful to the elims but tbh I don't find it impossible that a villager would use this.

 

[The Young Pyromancer]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

I'm going to put a vote on Pyro. They've been active in the thread, but all they've posted is one sentence at a time. It seems like they're lurking.

That's because I'm at the beach with family for my birthday. I've barely been following along, but if you want thoughts, I think TJ has been less aggressively analytical as in the past. Besides that one thing with Lotus, that's pretty much it. 

For anyone trying to put together an action chart, I forgot to use my power...  

[Experience]

Well, I feel like I finally have some time to get into this game. So thoughts on current lynch candidates.

Really, I can see any of them being villagers, and of course any of them could be elim, but it's kind of hard to tell. Especially with lotus and pyro, who don't really have a lot of posts, and those posts don't have a lot of content. With vapor, I think someone(matrim?) mentioned that they seemed to be defending themselves a little strongly, or something along those lines. The thing is, I would expect them to be defensive to try and convince people to keep them alive. And both elims and villagers would want this. I hope this makes sense?

And I have to go now. More thoughts later. 

[Mat]

7 minutes ago, Experience said:

With vapor, I think someone(matrim?) mentioned that they seemed to be defending themselves a little strongly, or something along those lines. The thing is, I would expect them to be defensive to try and convince people to keep them alive. And both elims and villagers would want this. I hope this makes sense?

Fair, though Vapor's been under pressure before. I've seen how she defends herself, and this feels a bit more frantic.

Probably worth noting that this post of yours gives me bad vibes. Current elim suspects/team prediction (): Vapor, Lotus, Experience, and Elk or Kyne.

Gonna go get some sleep now. @Lotus, whenever you have time (don't feel rushed to answer) I would request you answer my question from earlier:

13 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I chose Table II and received the Passion of Sabotage. I then used it to roleblock Lotus. It succeeded, but then Lotus claimed this:

[Your claim that you were targeted by coercion]

And I don't know if this would even happen if she was roleblocked. I certainly think it's interesting that she didn't mention the roleblock. @Lotus, were you told you were roleblocked? If so, why not mention it?

Thanks!

Edited September 3, 2020 by Matrim's Dice
Ooh 11 hundred posts shiny

[Kynedath]

Sorry, I've been off for a while, so my activity dropped off a bit. I'll also be busy a lot of tomorrow too so please excuse me if my activity stays low.

Could someone recap why there is so much suspicion on Vapor right now? I picked up that they are defensive but that's it and that doesn't seem like that much to go off of.

I don't think that a Lotus lynch would be beneficial at all, if they're really busy then their contribution to an elim team would be minimal, and if they're village then we would be wasting a lynch on just removing them from the game even though they are still active which is more than you can say for some other players. The village deals with inactives all the time and I feel we can continue without using a lynch on them without any substantial evidence.

@Matrim's Dice Why did you vote on Lotus? I don't see a reasoning anywhere.

I also plan on sharing my actions with the thread, the village starts with an info deficit and we need to get as much info as we can to decode what is going on. I got the passion of survival which I used to redirect anything targeting me onto Pyro. 

[Zillah]

6 hours ago, Frozen Mint said:

@Zillah Are players notified if their actions are redirected?

Yes they are. 

6 hours ago, Frozen Mint said:

@Zillah Are you allowed to state who you are or otherwise claim an identity in this message? If so this could be a... slightly useful action. Like a PM but powered way down.

No, you cannot claim identity in the anonymous message, however what you do in PM's/ thread is up to you. 

[|TJ|]

4 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

That's because I'm at the beach with family for my birthday. I've barely been following along, but if you want thoughts, I think TJ has been less aggressively analytical as in the past. Besides that one thing with Lotus, that's pretty much it. 

As you've not played the last couple of games, I'm slowly phasing out of aggressive analysis approach because it's time-consuming and I do not want to be locked to one play style. Besides, there isn't much to analyse at this point, and I've already have my suspect for the cycle and gave reasoning for it. 

7 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

@Matrim's Dice Why did you vote on Lotus? I don't see a reasoning anywhere.

14 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I chose Table II and received the Passion of Sabotage. I then used it to roleblock Lotus. It succeeded, but then Lotus claimed this:

On 9/2/2020 at 7:39 AM, Lotus said:

So, someone targeted me with the passion of coercion last night. At least that’s what I assume it was, because my table is decided...

And I don't know if this would even happen if she was roleblocked. I certainly think it's interesting that she didn't mention it. @Lotus, were you told you were roleblocked? If so, why not mention it?

Some more thoughts:

• Matrim feels more village this cycle, and I'm maintain my mild village read on Illwei, so I believe all 3 voters on Vapor last cycle were village. 
• Votes on Mist came after there was a train on Vapor. Voters include Sart, Mint, and Lotus. If we are to believe Sart is village, that leaves us with Mint and Lotus. As I said, I'm not really sold on elim! Lotus unless elim!Vapor. Waiting for an answer like Matrim. 
• Fringe voters include Elkanah, who voted for Kynedath to specifically have a counter vote against Vapor, but I'm not sure because it could be villager trying to diversify the vote to prevent bandwagoning as well. Unsure.
• Unsure about votes on Mint because I'm unsure of Mint. Ashbringer's reason seems solid, whereas Vapor's was a poke vote. 
• Experience, Kynedath, Silber, Pyro and Elandera did not vote. Elandera is dead, but possibly at least one of the elims in the other 4

I'll admit when I posted my action result, I was hoping it would encourage other villagers to do so as well, so now we force the elims to lie to cover-up any elim-y seeming action if they want to post it in-thread. Hopefully we can catch some of them in their lie.

[Elkanah]

13 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Before others misunderstand, there wasn't any kind of offer in the PM I received, so I doubt Elkanah was the one who AN-PM'd me. He is probably joking here. xD

lol. Yeah, I had coercion and was roleblocked. I have two reasons why I couldn't have known.

12 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

And now we know the PM probably did not contain an offer. Nice job, Elkanah.

I do what I can  

11 hours ago, Illwei said:

This is why I like getting rid of chaotic players

You cut me to the quick! I'm shot to the heart and you're to blame.

7 hours ago, Frozen Mint said:

So I did an analysis of all the passions

I enjoyed your analysis and want to multiqute through every line, but I will try to give my thoughts without doing that.

Survival

I disagree that survival isn't helpful to the village. If I get survival, I have a three or four in 13 chance of moving everything to an eliminator. That includes role blocks, action checks, seers, and even possible kills. Every villager should use this ability as often as possible. Elims shouldn't. It's useless to you .

Connection

I like PMs. If you don't know what to do with this, consider talking to me.

Empathy

You make a solid point that we are liable to try relynching someone who uses this. I'd prefer if villagers use any means they may have to stay alive. If that means gaming a lynch, then by all means.

Protection

I was just talking to someone about how we don't see elims with bodyguard roles anymore... I guess I was wrong. Granted it's not very likely they get this. It is further unlikely they would waste a turn like this. Even so, this is probably the easiest set up for a WGG I've seen recently.

Teamwork

I agree

Sabotage

A good thing to target anyone except for me.

Logic

I agree.

Planning

I missed the part of this one that gives you two abilities to choose from and am now far more interested in't. @Zillah Will the abilities be from the same table. Are they guaranteed to be different from one another?

Research

 Stellar example @Lord_Silberfarben. This is my favorite way to use this.

Narcotics

The best action in the game

Coercion

The second best action in the game when you aren't role blocked

Violence

Like I said. Since I have a better than 20% chance of hitting an elim, I'd take the shot.

5 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

That's because I'm at the beach with family for my birthday.

Happy Birthday!!!! 

25 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Some more thoughts:

• Matrim feels more village this cycle, and I'm maintain my mild village read on Illwei, so I believe all 3 voters on Vapor last cycle were village. 
• Votes on Mist came after there was a train on Vapor. Voters include Sart, Mint, and Lotus. If we are to believe Sart is village, that leaves us with Mint and Lotus. As I said, I'm not really sold on elim! Lotus unless elim!Vapor. Waiting for an answer like Matrim. 
• Fringe voters include Elkanah, who voted for Kynedath to specifically have a counter vote against Vapor, but I'm not sure because it could be villager trying to diversify the vote to prevent bandwagoning as well. Unsure.
• Unsure about votes on Mint because I'm unsure of Mint. Ashbringer's reason seems solid, whereas Vapor's was a poke vote. 
• Experience, Kynedath, Silber, Pyro and Elandera did not vote. Elandera is dead, but possibly at least one of the elims in the other 4

I'll admit when I posted my action result, I was hoping it would encourage other villagers to do so as well, so now we force the elims to lie to cover-up any elim-y seeming action if they want to post it in-thread. Hopefully we can catch some of them in their lie.

I really just wanted to see who Elandera would vote for. I wasn't even sure I was going to leave my vote on Kynedath.

Also you have my claim of action so it worked at least a little bit

Thank you for your analysis! I hope to be helpful soon, too.

Edited September 3, 2020 by Elkanah
The site was freaking out

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44 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

You cut me to the quick! I'm shot to the heart and you're to blame.

Making me sound so hostile :((

I was going to comment on Elkanah's analysis of the analysis by mint on the violence bit when it read:

45 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Violence

 

But, well...now it doesn't.

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So I’m having difficulty right now seeing anyone as anything but a shade of anxious, and I think it may be because I’m projecting? I have my driver’s test tomorrow and I’m absolutely terrified, because I just know I won’t be able to back around a corner while keeping within a foot of the curb. I may not be back until after that- ~3 hours before rollover, so I mean, plenty of time to vote, so- . of course, I will probably end up getting on during the day anyways so, I mean, feel free to disregard all of that. :P. also, should that be uh...blue? text? I think so, I'm just not...quite...not quite...sure...

Anyways- I have Bullet Pointed things this time! maybe it will make it easier for people to read! I typically dislike bullet points, and use .>> - << this guy with plenty of spaces on either side, but people seem to have a hard time reading them...so....
Also to be clear, I would be unsettled if i ordered pistachio ice cream and found a piece of caramel in it.

• Experience - “anxiously trying to defend them” vibe - gives no alternate ...elimination?... candidates, but defends all three already voted up. Maybe an elim who feels like they need to defend everyone to prove their innocence. Again, I always feel like I have to defend everyone so-
• Matrim - “  ” vibe - I’m mildly concerned that I seem to be having similar thoughts to him. Just...just a tad concerned.  
• Lotus - “tired” vibe - Is okay with killing Vapor, but seems just as okay dying. 
• TJ Shade - I can’t pinpoint what, but I think TJ feels off to me. It honestly may just be Pyro that has me looking for something. It may just be my reading though. Just...reading some things in there with how the rest of his post sounds feels like eating pistachio ice cream and finding a piece of caramel in there.
• Frozen Mint - ??
• Kynedath - “elandera” vibe - Don’t ask me to explain it. I- I can’t. 
• Vapor - “anxiously defensive” vibe - They don’t really post anything, and were pretty quick to defend themselves at the slightest suspicion. 
• Silber - “Typical Silber” vibe 
• Elkanah - “Chaotically exited” vibe - Very different from my last game with them, although that was a QF. makes me feel like maybe they're village excited to be village, because they don’t have to really watch what they say and they can be chaotic. Could just be a chaotic elim though. Who knows.
• Pyro -”weirdly chill” vibe - I remember them being more chaotic. Maybe it’s because they’re at the beach so they’re just feeling chill, but it's just a teeny tad unsettling to me. 
• Ashbringer - “Not here” vibe - No Roleplaying? 
• Sart - “He was scanned as vil?” vibe? 

Edited September 3, 2020 by Illwei

[The Young Pyromancer]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Pyro -”weirdly chill” vibe - I remember them being more chaotic. Maybe it’s because they’re at the beach so they’re just feeling chill, but it's just a teeny tad unsettling to me. 

On some new meds

[Elkanah]

15 minutes ago, Illwei said:

 

Elkanah - “Chaotically exited” vibe - Very different from my last game with them, although that was a QF. makes me feel like maybe they're village excited to be village, because they don’t have to really watch what they say and they can be chaotic.

I can assure you this is exactly the case

I'll respond to more when i don't have to be up in five hours

[Experience]

Ok, my last post was talking about how I sorta didn't think the lynch canidates were great choices, then I had to leave mid-post. Here's the second part, about who might be a better candidate. Also, I just want to clarify, I wasn't trying to defend the lynch candidates, just saying that there might be better choices.

1. Illwei - Village feel, seems to have helpful posts. I feel like elim probably would be less likely to do that?
2. Matrims Dice - I'm getting more village vibes from them, and they have like 75% of all posts or something like that, so I don't really want to kill them even though it would give us the most info. 
3. Lotus - Lynch Canidate, though in my opinion not great, because will give us next to no useful information.
4. TJ Shade - Neutral feeling, i dunno?
5. Frozen Mint - I'm not really sure about them, and a lynch on them wouldn't really get much information, so i dunno.
6. Kynedath - I'm really not sure. Maybe village? It's been a while, so I don't exactly remember their play style. 
7. Vapor - Lynch Canidate, best out of three right now, because would give us the most information. 
8. Lord Silberfarben - Probable village, cause revealed scan on sart. Will probably be scanned sooner or later, so no reason to lynch them.
9. Elkanah -  D2 have only done analysis of rules and the chaotic response to Shade's post. I'm not really sure about them. 
10. The Young Pyromancer - Lynch Canidate, same as lotus really, there isn't really much information gained from the lynch. 
11. Ashbringer - Ummm. Well, the only thing they've really done was vote on mint, so I dunno.
12. Sart - According to silber, is village, which I will believe until silber shows up as elim(if they are).

Great. This didn't help me at all. Maybe a vapor lynch is a good idea after all, or I missed something in my quick analysis of everyone. Well, I guess you can ignore me saying we shouldn't lynch people, cause I seem to not have a good alternative.

[+Lotus]

23 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And I don't know if this would even happen if she was roleblocked. I certainly think it's interesting that she didn't mention it. @Lotus, were you told you were roleblocked? If so, why not mention it?

I was not told I was roleblocked. I was only told that I will receive my next action from the safety table.

 

Also, will not be on until two hours before rollover, fyi. I have another day of standing at a river getting sunburned ahead.

Edited September 3, 2020 by Lotus

[|TJ|]

14 minutes ago, Lotus said:

I was not told I was roleblocked. I was only told that I will receive my next action from the safety table.

 

Also, will not be on until two hours before rollover, fyi. I have another day of standing at a river getting sunburned ahead.

You didn't take any action? The action you took succeeded? 

[+Lotus]

7 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

You didn't take any action? The action you took succeeded? 

I did not take any action.

Edited September 3, 2020 by Lotus

[Mat]

9 hours ago, Kynedath said:

Sorry, I've been off for a while, so my activity dropped off a bit. I'll also be busy a lot of tomorrow too so please excuse me if my activity stays low.

Could someone recap why there is so much suspicion on Vapor right now? I picked up that they are defensive but that's it and that doesn't seem like that much to go off of.

I don't think that a Lotus lynch would be beneficial at all, if they're really busy then their contribution to an elim team would be minimal, and if they're village then we would be wasting a lynch on just removing them from the game even though they are still active which is more than you can say for some other players. The village deals with inactives all the time and I feel we can continue without using a lynch on them without any substantial evidence.

@Matrim's Dice Why did you vote on Lotus? I don't see a reasoning anywhere.

The reasoning here was that I found the placement and reasoning for Lotus's vote on Mist D1 very strange, possibly linking her to Vapor as both elims. Then N1 they both seemed pretty defensive to me, more than I've seen in past games from either. I didn't have a preference of which to lynch, but I chose to roleblock Lotus with my action, was told it was a success, but because Lotus commented on what her action was and didn't mention the roleblock (which had come back as a success) I voted her.

7 hours ago, Illwei said:

Matrim - “  ” vibe - I’m mildly concerned that I seem to be having similar thoughts to him. Just...just a tad concerned. 

Similar vibe to Experience? You put for XP that he wasn't giving new candidates and defending the ones up, but I suggested the Vapor/Lotus team possibility. So I don't really know what you're talking about :P.

1 hour ago, Experience said:

 

1. Illwei - Village feel, seems to have helpful posts. I feel like elim probably would be less likely to do that?
2. Matrims Dice - I'm getting more village vibes from them, and they have like 75% of all posts or something like that, so I don't really want to kill them even though it would give us the most info. 
3. Lotus - Lynch Canidate, though in my opinion not great, because will give us next to no useful information.
4. TJ Shade - Neutral feeling, i dunno?
5. Frozen Mint - I'm not really sure about them, and a lynch on them wouldn't really get much information, so i dunno.
6. Kynedath - I'm really not sure. Maybe village? It's been a while, so I don't exactly remember their play style. 
7. Vapor - Lynch Canidate, best out of three right now, because would give us the most information. 
8. Lord Silberfarben - Probable village, cause revealed scan on sart. Will probably be scanned sooner or later, so no reason to lynch them.
9. Elkanah -  D2 have only done analysis of rules and the chaotic response to Shade's post. I'm not really sure about them. 
10. The Young Pyromancer - Lynch Canidate, same as lotus really, there isn't really much information gained from the lynch. 
11. Ashbringer - Ummm. Well, the only thing they've really done was vote on mint, so I dunno.
12. Sart - According to silber, is village, which I will believe until silber shows up as elim(if they are).

Great. This didn't help me at all. Maybe a vapor lynch is a good idea after all, or I missed something in my quick analysis of everyone. Well, I guess you can ignore me saying we shouldn't lynch people, cause I seem to not have a good alternative.

Re: Myself, I don't think I have that much percentage  but thanks nonetheless. I am interested what info my death would bring, though. I don't see much coming out of it, personally. Maybe it's just that I have a lot of posts so there'd be a lot to dissect :/.

Re: Lotus, I disagree here. It would give us some good information. If Lotus flips village, we can say her vote on Mist was not an attempt to save elim!Vapor, therefore unlinking those two. However, if Lotus flips elim, then elim!Vapor is a good possibility.

Re: Vapor, I agree. Most information here, though not a lot more than Lotus- in my eyes their lynches would be equally beneficial as far as info goes- so I think it's interesting how separate you put those two.

29 minutes ago, Lotus said:

I was not told I was roleblocked. I was only told that I will receive my next action from the safety table.

 

Also, will not be on until two hours before rollover, fyi. I have another day of standing at a river getting sunburned ahead.

 

6 minutes ago, Lotus said:

I did not take any action.

Ah, unfortunate for my action  but an answer either way. Lotus, Vapor

Edit: Now that I am thinking about it more, I'm not sure why Vapor would give more info than Lotus. @TJ Shade, what made you say that? Because I agree, and have no idea why. But then I think about it and am like 'wait, no, Lotus would give more info on Vapor than Vapor would on Lotus' and then I don't know  

Edited September 3, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[|TJ|]

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Edit: Now that I am thinking about it more, I'm not sure why Vapor would give more info than Lotus. @TJ Shade, what made you say that? Because I agree, and have no idea why. But then I think about it and am like 'wait, no, Lotus would give more info on Vapor than Vapor would on Lotus' and then I don't know  

If we vote out Vapor and she flipped elim, there is a high probability that Lotus was an elim trying to save Vapor (2E). If Vapor flips village, no exact alignment info can be gained about Lotus with guarantee (1V 1?) If we vote out Lotus, and she flips elim, there's no guarantee that Vapor is an elim as well because there's nothing for elim!Lotus to lose by creating a tie between 2 villages (1E 1?). If Lotus flips village, again no indication of Vapor's alignment (1V 1?)

[Mat]

11 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

If we vote out Vapor and she flipped elim, there is a high probability that Lotus was an elim trying to save Vapor (2E). If Vapor flips village, no exact alignment info can be gained about Lotus with guarantee (1V 1?) If we vote out Lotus, and she flips elim, there's no guarantee that Vapor is an elim as well because there's nothing for elim!Lotus to lose by creating a tie between 2 villages (1E 1?). If Lotus flips village, again no indication of Vapor's alignment (1V 1?)

Okay, thank you. That's what I was looking for.

[Vapor]

Well, I'm just going to die, so might as well have some fun. The chaos begins. Vapor

[Mat]

Just now, Vapor said:

Well, I'm just going to die, so might as well have some fun. The chaos begins. Vapor

I mean it was 2-1. Nothing was set, and there hasn't been a whole lot of widespread support for your lynch, nothing to warrant that.

[Vapor]

On September 1, 2020 at 11:00 PM, TJ Shade said:

My hidden reasoning was based on a single post of Sart's. It was based on something I have observed as being increasingly used by elims, but it's not a strict elim-only alignment indicative, as it's not impossible for villagers to do it as well. But because I've seen it being used by elims more, I wanted to see if my theory is true. Apparently not.

About the claim, I've not seen Silber pulling any risky moves in the past, so I'll believe his claim (albeit with raised eyebrows). He knows that if anyone gets Research next he'll be the likely target (and yeah, if anyone else does get Research, consider using it on Silber) so this was definitely a high-risk move for an elim. 

For the person who sent me an anonymous message: No.

Since roles are not permanent in the game, I intend to reveal my actions for each Night in the following Day in the interest of transparency to provide more info. I got Passion of Passions from Table II and I chose to role-block Elkanah. I figured if Vapor and Lotus are elims, they wouldn't submit elim kills since they would be the obvious choice to role-block, so I went with one of the fringe voters who did not participate in Vapor-Mist voting. So he did not submit the elim kill, but still could be an elim. He could have redirected my role-block onto someone else but I'm not sure if elims can use 2 actions per Night. @Zillah, can an eliminator use both elim kill and the Passion action during the same night?

Lotus is not doing us any favors, because if she's village, elims have a proper reason to bandwagon because she voted on herself and we'd get very less info from such a voting cycle. So I'll be voting for Vapor because elim!Vapor would given more evidence to elim!Lotus, but not the other way around.

 

On September 2, 2020 at 8:19 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

That's probably a good idea  and in my case is the reason I voted on Lotus so quickly.

I chose Table II and received the Passion of Sabotage. I then used it to roleblock Lotus. It succeeded, but then Lotus claimed this:

And I don't know if this would even happen if she was roleblocked. I certainly think it's interesting that she didn't mention it. @Lotus, were you told you were roleblocked? If so, why not mention it?

This is a good point, but I'll wait for Lotus's response before switching to Vapor.

 

21 hours ago, Illwei said:

Elk was roleblocked by TJ? so he couldn't have used Planning. He also said he got coercion (if we believe him) anyways :P. The only reason I see for him to lie about coercion is if he and TJ are Elims together, which I mean, I don't see really. 
This is why I like getting rid of chaotic players

Anyways- 
I don't want to make the same mistake I made last game by not keeping on Vapor D2, but I also- Idk. I don't want to...tunnel? is that the correct use? because all I have is her D1 stuff. I mean, maybe you could say that lotus putting the vote on Mist gave Vapor an opportunity to save themselves, so. Idk I don't really see that unless I think hard enough, but maybe I'm just not thinking hard enough. I honestly still don't get why anyone voted on Mist in the first place. Besides Sart who was, I think, a vote to get Mist to vote.
 

 

21 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

This was also around what my thoughts were, but I also noticed that Vapor has seemed really defensive so far this game, I would say more than usual. So I'd be fine with her lynch, seeing how it went, and I'll probably switch to her depending on Lotus's response. TJ is correct in that Vapor will probably provide more info on Lotus than Lotus will on Vapor.

 

17 hours ago, Lotus said:

I’d be ok with lynching vapor, but considering how little time I had yesterday to look at anything SE related, I’m also totally good lynching myself.

Will respond more once I get home and take a shower.

 

11 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Fair, though Vapor's been under pressure before. I've seen how she defends herself, and this feels a bit more frantic.

Probably worth noting that this post of yours gives me bad vibes. Current elim suspects/team prediction (): Vapor, Lotus, Experience, and Elk or Kyne.

Gonna go get some sleep now. @Lotus, whenever you have time (don't feel rushed to answer) I would request you answer my question from earlier:

Thanks!

 

9 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

As you've not played the last couple of games, I'm slowly phasing out of aggressive analysis approach because it's time-consuming and I do not want to be locked to one play style. Besides, there isn't much to analyse at this point, and I've already have my suspect for the cycle and gave reasoning for it. 

Some more thoughts:

• Matrim feels more village this cycle, and I'm maintain my mild village read on Illwei, so I believe all 3 voters on Vapor last cycle were village. 
• Votes on Mist came after there was a train on Vapor. Voters include Sart, Mint, and Lotus. If we are to believe Sart is village, that leaves us with Mint and Lotus. As I said, I'm not really sold on elim! Lotus unless elim!Vapor. Waiting for an answer like Matrim. 
• Fringe voters include Elkanah, who voted for Kynedath to specifically have a counter vote against Vapor, but I'm not sure because it could be villager trying to diversify the vote to prevent bandwagoning as well. Unsure.
• Unsure about votes on Mint because I'm unsure of Mint. Ashbringer's reason seems solid, whereas Vapor's was a poke vote. 
• Experience, Kynedath, Silber, Pyro and Elandera did not vote. Elandera is dead, but possibly at least one of the elims in the other 4

I'll admit when I posted my action result, I was hoping it would encourage other villagers to do so as well, so now we force the elims to lie to cover-up any elim-y seeming action if they want to post it in-thread. Hopefully we can catch some of them in their lie.

 

8 hours ago, Illwei said:

Making me sound so hostile :((

I was going to comment on Elkanah's analysis of the analysis by mint on the violence bit when it read:

But, well...now it doesn't.

---

So I’m having difficulty right now seeing anyone as anything but a shade of anxious, and I think it may be because I’m projecting? I have my driver’s test tomorrow and I’m absolutely terrified, because I just know I won’t be able to back around a corner while keeping within a foot of the curb. I may not be back until after that- ~3 hours before rollover, so I mean, plenty of time to vote, so- . of course, I will probably end up getting on during the day anyways so, I mean, feel free to disregard all of that. :P. also, should that be uh...blue? text? I think so, I'm just not...quite...not quite...sure...

Anyways- I have Bullet Pointed things this time! maybe it will make it easier for people to read! I typically dislike bullet points, and use .>> - << this guy with plenty of spaces on either side, but people seem to have a hard time reading them...so....
Also to be clear, I would be unsettled if i ordered pistachio ice cream and found a piece of caramel in it.

• Experience - “anxiously trying to defend them” vibe - gives no alternate ...elimination?... candidates, but defends all three already voted up. Maybe an elim who feels like they need to defend everyone to prove their innocence. Again, I always feel like I have to defend everyone so-
• Matrim - “  ” vibe - I’m mildly concerned that I seem to be having similar thoughts to him. Just...just a tad concerned.  
• Lotus - “tired” vibe - Is okay with killing Vapor, but seems just as okay dying. 
• TJ Shade - I can’t pinpoint what, but I think TJ feels off to me. It honestly may just be Pyro that has me looking for something. It may just be my reading though. Just...reading some things in there with how the rest of his post sounds feels like eating pistachio ice cream and finding a piece of caramel in there.
• Frozen Mint - ??
• Kynedath - “elandera” vibe - Don’t ask me to explain it. I- I can’t. 
• Vapor - “anxiously defensive” vibe - They don’t really post anything, and were pretty quick to defend themselves at the slightest suspicion. 
• Silber - “Typical Silber” vibe 
• Elkanah - “Chaotically exited” vibe - Very different from my last game with them, although that was a QF. makes me feel like maybe they're village excited to be village, because they don’t have to really watch what they say and they can be chaotic. Could just be a chaotic elim though. Who knows.
• Pyro -”weirdly chill” vibe - I remember them being more chaotic. Maybe it’s because they’re at the beach so they’re just feeling chill, but it's just a teeny tad unsettling to me. 
• Ashbringer - “Not here” vibe - No Roleplaying? 
• Sart - “He was scanned as vil?” vibe? 

 

2 hours ago, Experience said:

Ok, my last post was talking about how I sorta didn't think the lynch canidates were great choices, then I had to leave mid-post. Here's the second part, about who might be a better candidate. Also, I just want to clarify, I wasn't trying to defend the lynch candidates, just saying that there might be better choices.

1. Illwei - Village feel, seems to have helpful posts. I feel like elim probably would be less likely to do that?
2. Matrims Dice - I'm getting more village vibes from them, and they have like 75% of all posts or something like that, so I don't really want to kill them even though it would give us the most info. 
3. Lotus - Lynch Canidate, though in my opinion not great, because will give us next to no useful information.
4. TJ Shade - Neutral feeling, i dunno?
5. Frozen Mint - I'm not really sure about them, and a lynch on them wouldn't really get much information, so i dunno.
6. Kynedath - I'm really not sure. Maybe village? It's been a while, so I don't exactly remember their play style. 
7. Vapor - Lynch Canidate, best out of three right now, because would give us the most information. 
8. Lord Silberfarben - Probable village, cause revealed scan on sart. Will probably be scanned sooner or later, so no reason to lynch them.
9. Elkanah -  D2 have only done analysis of rules and the chaotic response to Shade's post. I'm not really sure about them. 
10. The Young Pyromancer - Lynch Canidate, same as lotus really, there isn't really much information gained from the lynch. 
11. Ashbringer - Ummm. Well, the only thing they've really done was vote on mint, so I dunno.
12. Sart - According to silber, is village, which I will believe until silber shows up as elim(if they are).

Great. This didn't help me at all. Maybe a vapor lynch is a good idea after all, or I missed something in my quick analysis of everyone. Well, I guess you can ignore me saying we shouldn't lynch people, cause I seem to not have a good alternative.

 

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The reasoning here was that I found the placement and reasoning for Lotus's vote on Mist D1 very strange, possibly linking her to Vapor as both elims. Then N1 they both seemed pretty defensive to me, more than I've seen in past games from either. I didn't have a preference of which to lynch, but I chose to roleblock Lotus with my action, was told it was a success, but because Lotus commented on what her action was and didn't mention the roleblock (which had come back as a success) I voted her.

Similar vibe to Experience? You put for XP that he wasn't giving new candidates and defending the ones up, but I suggested the Vapor/Lotus team possibility. So I don't really know what you're talking about :P.

Re: Myself, I don't think I have that much percentage  but thanks nonetheless. I am interested what info my death would bring, though. I don't see much coming out of it, personally. Maybe it's just that I have a lot of posts so there'd be a lot to dissect :/.

Re: Lotus, I disagree here. It would give us some good information. If Lotus flips village, we can say her vote on Mist was not an attempt to save elim!Vapor, therefore unlinking those two. However, if Lotus flips elim, then elim!Vapor is a good possibility.

Re: Vapor, I agree. Most information here, though not a lot more than Lotus- in my eyes their lynches would be equally beneficial as far as info goes- so I think it's interesting how separate you put those two.

 

Ah, unfortunate for my action  but an answer either way. Lotus, Vapor

Edit: Now that I am thinking about it more, I'm not sure why Vapor would give more info than Lotus. @TJ Shade, what made you say that? Because I agree, and have no idea why. But then I think about it and am like 'wait, no, Lotus would give more info on Vapor than Vapor would on Lotus' and then I don't know  

 

45 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

If we vote out Vapor and she flipped elim, there is a high probability that Lotus was an elim trying to save Vapor (2E). If Vapor flips village, no exact alignment info can be gained about Lotus with guarantee (1V 1?) If we vote out Lotus, and she flips elim, there's no guarantee that Vapor is an elim as well because there's nothing for elim!Lotus to lose by creating a tie between 2 villages (1E 1?). If Lotus flips village, again no indication of Vapor's alignment (1V 1?)

Sorry for the length. This is just this round. Now, people are just trying to figure out who my Elim team members are. Thus, chaos.